The Effects of Descriptive Representation on Black Voter Turnout

Cassandra Griffin

The University of Nebraska-Omaha

April 11th, 2018

 President Barack Obama once said, “Change will not come if we wait for some other

person or some other time. We are the ones we've been waiting for. We are the change that we

seek.” Much of President Obama’s 2008 campaign was focused on empowering and motivating

people who had been left out of the traditional political system. President Obama urged voters to

be the change that they sought, and to act by voting in elections. This strategy led to a historic

moment in American history -- the election of the first black president of the United States of

America.

This victory was historic in more ways than one. The election of Barack Obama in 2008

marked a significant increase in minority voter turnout. For the first time in the history of the

United States, young black voters had the highest turnout when compared with other ethnic

groups. Black women turned out at a higher rate than any other demographic group. Total

turnout in 2008 was about the same as it was in 2004 at 64%, but the makeup of the voters was

vastly different. The turnout of black voters in 2008 virtually evaporated the long-standing racial

disparity in voting in the United States (Roberts, 2009).

Not only did black voters turnout for President Obama in 2008, the turnout rates of black

voters exceeded that of white voters for the first time in 2012. This was even as turnout among

other demographics declined (Frey, 2013). President Barack Obama’s impact on the turnout of

black voters was not insignificant, nor was it a one-off event. His name on the ballot encouraged

more voters to visit the ballot box and propel him to victory.

However, this effect did not last after his presidency. Even a member of his own cabinet

could not quite garner the enthusiasm and turnout needed to win. Black voter turnout was

significantly lower in 2016, dropping from 66% in 2012 to 59% in 2016. Though Hillary Clinton
won 89% of black voters, she was not able to mimic the high turnout rates that Barack Obama

had (Ruffini, 2017). President Barack Obama won with significantly higher black turnout.

Hillary Clinton did not.

Why did President Barack Obama encourage higher levels of black turnout while Hillary

Clinton did not? The answer to this discrepancy of turnout may have to do with the

representation offered on the ballot. Descriptive representation -- the idea that not only should

elected officials match their constituents’ ideology, but descriptive characteristics including race,

gender, and ethnicity -- is at the crux of this question. That spurs yet another question: will

increasing the amount of minorities running for office then increase minority voter turnout?

There is a significant amount of research on the impacts of representation in the voting

booth. Both black and white voter turnout increases 2-3% with every Democratic black candidate

on the ballot (Washington, 2006). Another study found that there is an effect on candidate race

on black turnout, but it largely depends on the viability of the candidates. If a candidate is not

considered viable in both the context of the candidate themselves and the electoral environment,

the effect on turnout is not seen (Keele, Paru, etc., 2017). Additional research findings find that

black voters were more likely to vote with increased descriptive representation in state

legislatures (​Rocha, Tolbert, etc., 2010). The research indicates that representation does give a

corresponding boost to turnout.

Recent history also backs up this claim. As Preston Love Jr. describes in his Black Votes

Matter column, “As we traveled from state to state blacks registered at record numbers. The

Jackson run for the Presidency, quickly grew from a campaign to an undeniable movement. Rev.

Jackson became the most famous and adored black, in black America and internationally. His
rainbow coalition captivated the progressive wing of the Democratic Party and activated the

black vote” (Love). Jesse Jackson had overwhelming support in the black community, but his

campaign’s primary concern was turnout (Toner, 1988). Black political participation hit a record

in 1984 at 55.8% after Jackson’s run (Tate, 1991). Like President Barack Obama, the first black

man to run for president also saw an increase in black voter turnout.

I repeatedly use examples of Democratic campaigns and candidates because there simply

is not a lot of data available that suggests that black turnout responds to descriptive

representation with Republican candidates. The presence of a black Democratic candidate is

associated with increased black voter turnout, but the same cannot be said for Republican

candidates where that association cannot be observed (Fairdosi, ​Rogowski, 2015)​. This research,

done in 2015, seems to still ring true. For example, in the 2016 election Ben Carson was the only

black Republican candidate running in the primary. And yet, there is no evidence that his

candidacy drew black voters to the polls. In all but 2 of the 13 primary states that Carson

competed in, black voters made up less than 5% of all Republican voters (Enten, Blaik, 2016).

Black voters do not seem to vote for Republican candidates in the first place at high rates, so to

try to study the turnout of an already marginal voting bloc would be rather difficult. That is why

this paper primarily draws upon examples of Democratic candidates.

It is hard to say if descriptive representation alone can explain the varying levels of

turnout in Democratic elections. There are other candidates and factors that also increase black

turnout. Black voters were credited to Doug Jones’ win in an incredibly competitive Senate race

in Alabama that saw much higher turnout despite numerous institutional barriers. Alabama is

considered one of the hardest states to vote in, with notorious efforts at black voter suppression.
That makes the increased turnout among the black community even more impressive (Newkirk,

2017). Black voter turnout is also credited in propelling Virginia’s Democratic Governor, Ralph

Northam, to victory. Black voters came out in larger numbers, and preferred Northam to his

opponent at a 9 to 1 ratio (Bouie, 2017). In both examples, however, black voter turnout was

specifically targeted by campaigns and organizations. In Alabama, the NAACP ramped up their

grassroots organizing efforts. In Virginia, groups like BlackPAC commissioned polls, ran ads,

and gave advice to the campaign to seriously consider and run on issues important to the black

community.

Perhaps not only does black representation increase turnout in terms of the candidate on

the ballot, but in the organizers reaching out to voters. Grassroots organizing by black

organizations could be another critical piece in increasing the voter turnout of black

communities. In that case, it is not only the descriptive representation of the candidates that

matter, but those working to elect them and those communicating with voters. Doug Jones also

had a civil rights record, and touted his experiences with bringing KKK bombers to justice.

Ralph Northam had the help of BlackPAC in confronting racist messaging in the state (Bouie,

2017). The track record of the candidates on civil rights may be another piece of the puzzle,

which may explain the Republican party’s dearth of black voters.

It is hard to say if this is always generalizable to other demographic groups. If you look

specifically at how female candidates affect the voter turnout of female voters, you get a

muddled record. Some research indicates that women “gain marginally greater support from their

own gender” (Brians, 2005). That being said, it is hard to see why Barack Obama’s victory with

the black community was not reflected in a similar victory for Hillary Clinton with women.
 Hillary Clinton was expected to raise voter turnout among women, much as President

Obama did among black voters. Instead, she won only 54% of women’s votes. President Obama

won 95% of the black vote. She lost white female voters by a slim margin. Clinton, when asked

about why women did not vote for her at the expected margins, explained: “[Women] will be

under tremendous pressure – and I’m talking principally about white women. They will be under

tremendous pressure from fathers and husbands and boyfriends and male employers not to vote

for ‘the girl’”.

Kelsy Kretschmer, an assistant professor at Oregon State University and social scientist,

backs up this claim. Kretschmer says that married women are more likely to vote with their

partners and represent their interests rather than their own or the interests of all women in the

way that single women do. Women married to white men, for example, are more likely to be

conservative as white men are more likely to be conservative (Graves, 2017). Internalized

misogyny and an over-reliance on seeing men as the principle authority may explain why white

women voted the way they did. The voting of women may be just a completely different

conversation from the voting of black voters.

But while the effect of descriptive representation may be a harder comparison with

women, it seems to be reflected in the turnout of Latinx voters. Research on minority turnout in

relation to descriptive representation in state legislatures also found an increase in Latinx voter

turnout with Latinx candidates (​Rocha, Tolbert, etc., 2010). Latinx candidates were also shown

to be a key driver in mobilizing Latinx voters (Barreto, 2007). The effects of descriptive

representation are visible with more than just one race.

 The body of research indicates that there is indeed a connection between descriptive

representation and the turnout of black voters. Put simply, black voters are more likely to turnout

when there are viable black candidates on the ballot. White candidates, with the aid of black-led

organizations, can also see similar upticks in black voter turnout. This is at least the effects that

are observed with Democratic candidates, it is hard to argue the same with Republican

candidates. Given the 2016 election, it is also difficult to generalize these findings to all other

demographics. Female candidates, for example, do not seem to cause a spike in the turnout of

female voters. Latinx candidates, however, have similar effects on the voter turnout of Latinx

communities.

Descriptive representation is so important, in more ways than one. Not only does it

encourage higher turnout, it ​encourages​. More black candidates running paves the way for even

more black candidates to feel empowered to run and become engaged. Our government can only

benefit from having a more diverse body of elected officials that represent not only the interests

of their constituents but the characteristics of them.

Especially in the context of the upcoming 2018 elections, it is crucial for Democrats to

increase the voter turnout in black communities if they want to win the victories they need to.

One great way to do that, as the research seems to indicate, is to run black candidates. It is not

enough just to enter communities when you need their vote and expect high turnout. Either the

party needs to run more black candidates or run candidates with campaigns and track records that

indicate a respect for and investment in the black community. Or, of course, it can do both.
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