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To: Kelly Armstrong for Congress

From: Brenda Gianiny

President, Axis Research
Date: June 6, 2018
RE: ND Congressional Race - General Election Analysis

Objective and Methodology

Axis Research conducted a survey of 509 general election voters in North Dakota from May 13-14, 2018.
All interviews were conducted with live interviewers, and 48% of interviews were conducted via cell
phone. Responses are representative of likely general election voters in terms of party affiliation,
gender, race, and age, and regional quotas were implemented to ensure proper geographic distribution.
The margin of error on these findings is ±4.47.

North Dakota Congressional Candidates – Armstrong Better Known, Better Liked

Kelly Armstrong is well positioned with the electorate. Nearly a third (32%) of North Dakota likely voters
have a favorable impression of him, compared to just 9% with an unfavorable impression of Armstrong.
Despite being very
early in the
Armstrong already
has a positive image
and is viewed to
hold the right
positions on issues
important to voters.
Armstrong also has
substantial room to
grow with the 59%
of voters who are not yet familiar enough with Armstrong to offer an opinion.

Axis Research Inc. • 1199 N. Fairfax Street, #400, Alexandria, VA 22314 • • 202.550.5867
Mac Schneider, however, is starting off in a poorer position. Schneider has far more limited name
recognition, with about three-quarters (76%) of North Dakota voters not having an impression of the
Democratic candidate. Although voters are less familiar with Schneider, his unfavorable rating (8%) is
within the same range as Armstrong’s (9%), while his base (16% favorable) is half that of Armstrong’s
(32%). This gives Kelly Armstrong a net image rating nearly of +23, which is nearly three times the net
image for Mac Schneider (+8).
As Schneider works to introduce himself to the general electorate, he will be starting from a position of
weakness relative to Armstrong. Among these voters who are unfamiliar with Schneider, 29% already
have a favorable impression of Armstrong, with very few (5%) holding an unfavorable impression.

President Trump’s Agenda – An Asset For Armstrong

Although Democrats have sought to hurt Republican candidates by tying them to Donald Trump’s
agenda, Donald Trump is well-liked by the general electorate in North Dakota. Well over half (60%) of
North Dakota’s likely voters have a favorable impression of the President, compared to just 38% who
have negative impression. Indeed, the President even holds a majority favorable impression with
independents in the state (53%).
The leader of Democrats in the U.S. House of Representatives, on the other hand, does not fare so well.
Just 22% of North Dakota voters are favorable to Nancy Pelosi, with 63% holding an unfavorable view.
Opposition to Pelosi is intense, with half of all voters having a VERY unfavorable image of the Minority
Leader (50%). In contrast, while Trump has his ardent opponents (30% VERY unfavorable), he also has a
passionate base (39% VERY favorable). The GOP standard-bearer will be more of a boon to his party’s
candidate while the leader of the Democratic party will be a weight on her party’s candidate.

Axis Research Inc. • 1199 N. Fairfax Street, #400, Alexandria, VA 22314 • • 202.550.5867
In fact, North Dakota wants to elect a candidate aligned with the President. A majority (55%) of voters
would rather vote for a candidate who supports President Trump’s agenda, while 34% would rather vote
for a candidate who opposes President Trump’s agenda. While, unsurprisingly, the vast majority of
North Dakota Republicans express support for a candidate aligned with Trump (87%), a plurality (45%) of
independents prefer a
candidate who supports
President Trump’s agenda
as well.
As shown in the chart to the
right, Trump-supporting
candidates are even more
popular with the likeliest
voters who report that they
will definitely vote in
November; 59% of these
voters want a candidate
who supports Trump’s agenda.

The Ballot
Armstrong’s advantage in name recognition, stronger and more robust name ID, and North Dakota’s
support for the Trump agenda produces an electoral environment that points to an Armstrong win in
November. At this early stage, even with the candidates still fairly unknown to voters, Armstrong has
locked up almost half the electorate (48% voting Armstrong). In fact, Armstrong has more voters
“definitely” voting for him than Schneider has voters overall (26%).

Axis Research Inc. • 1199 N. Fairfax Street, #400, Alexandria, VA 22314 • • 202.550.5867
In summary, while the race is still early, the fundamentals of the race clearly point towards an
Armstrong win, as the Republican candidate is better-known, better-liked, and aided by a popular
Republican president.

Axis Research Inc. • 1199 N. Fairfax Street, #400, Alexandria, VA 22314 • • 202.550.5867