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Asset #1 lognormal Asset #2 lognormal Invest 100 each time period in assets with m

Means = 1.0% 0.87% 1.0% 0.51% The monthly volatilities are 5.0% and 10.0%
Volatilities = 5.0% 4.95% 10.0% 9.88% Which gives the better final portfolio after 25
Investment = 100 € 100 € Click F9 to get another scenario
Returns Portfolio#1 Returns Portfolio#2
100,000 €
0 100 € 100 € Portfolio#1 Portfolio#2
1 5.4% 205 € 10.4% 210 € #1 wins
2 -6.9% 291 € 9.2% 330 € 90,000 €
#1 wins
3 2.8% 399 € 9.2% 460 €
4 7.2% 528 € 8.6% 600 € 80,000 €
5 -4.4% 605 € -0.1% 699 €
6 1.5% 714 € -2.4% 782 € 70,000 €
7 3.0% 835 € 21.5% 1,050 €
8 -1.6% 922 € -16.5% 977 € 60,000 €
9 -5.7% 970 € -3.3% 1,045 €
10 5.8% 1,126 € 12.3% 1,273 € 50,000 €
11 -0.8% 1,218 € 19.4% 1,620 €
12 -1.5% 1,299 € -1.7% 1,693 €
40,000 €
13 -0.6% 1,391 € 7.3% 1,917 €
14 7.4% 1,594 € -10.8% 1,810 €
30,000 €
15 -2.6% 1,652 € 0.4% 1,918 €
16 10.6% 1,927 € 0.1% 2,019 €
20,000 €
17 -0.4% 2,019 € -15.8% 1,801 €
18 2.8% 2,177 € -6.7% 1,780 €
19 -1.2% 2,250 € -8.0% 1,738 € 10,000 €

20 1.3% 2,380 € 11.4% 2,036 €


21 8.2% 2,676 € -5.1% 2,032 € 0€
22 -1.8% 2,728 € 4.2% 2,218 €
0
7
14
21
28
35
42
49
56
63
70
77
84
91
98

5
10
23 5.0% 2,964 € 2.7% 2,378 €
24 -0.7% 3,042 € -0.5% 2,466 €
25 3.5% 3,249 € 19.8% 3,053 € Fill in the boxes
26 2.8% 3,439 € -5.4% 2,988 €
27 -1.5% 3,487 € -9.1% 2,816 € Note:
28 2.9% 3,689 € -0.3% 2,907 € Returns are randomly generated from a
29 3.4% 3,915 € -13.9% 2,602 €
30 5.3% 4,222 € -3.9% 2,600 € In 500 F9 iterations
31 2.6% 4,430 € -3.9% 2,599 € Portfolio#1 wins 63%
32 -7.1% 4,216 € 1.0% 2,724 €
33 7.0% 4,609 € -1.5% 2,782 €
34 2.4% 4,820 € -4.7% 2,750 € Average value of Portfolio #1
35 2.3% 5,030 € -2.5% 2,782 € Average value of Portfolio #2
36 6.1% 5,439 € 6.0% 3,049 €
37 6.1% 5,869 € 11.1% 3,488 € Average Win for Portfolio #1
38 -4.3% 5,717 € 6.2% 3,803 € Average Win for Portfolio #2
39 -2.6% 5,666 € -6.3% 3,665 €
40 -0.2% 5,754 € -0.7% 3,739 €
41 -1.9% 5,745 € -6.0% 3,614 €
42 -4.1% 5,608 € -17.9% 3,068 €
43 7.1% 6,107 € 14.0% 3,596 €
44 -3.4% 5,999 € 17.4% 4,323 €
45 -10.4% 5,475 € 30.6% 5,746 €
46 7.3% 5,977 € -8.5% 5,358 €
47 4.1% 6,324 € 7.0% 5,833 €
48 -0.6% 6,388 € -4.0% 5,699 €
49 6.8% 6,921 € -0.8% 5,752 €
50 5.5% 7,404 € 9.1% 6,377 €
51 -2.9% 7,287 € 1.2% 6,551 €
52 4.1% 7,689 € 1.3% 6,734 €
53 17.0% 9,099 € -5.7% 6,448 €
54 -3.2% 8,911 € -9.2% 5,957 €
55 4.0% 9,368 € 2.9% 6,231 €
56 1.4% 9,600 € -9.9% 5,712 €
57 2.1% 9,907 € -7.7% 5,369 €
58 6.2% 10,618 € -1.7% 5,379 €
59 -8.5% 9,813 € 3.7% 5,675 €
60 2.9% 10,201 € 4.7% 6,044 €
61 1.4% 10,448 € -4.1% 5,896 €
62 -2.0% 10,335 € 14.4% 6,845 €
63 2.9% 10,739 € 0.2% 6,960 €
64 -2.5% 10,565 € 0.7% 7,109 €
65 -1.8% 10,472 € -15.5% 6,105 €
66 7.0% 11,303 € -5.5% 5,869 €
67 -4.5% 10,899 € -5.6% 5,642 €
68 2.3% 11,251 € -3.9% 5,522 €
69 -0.5% 11,299 € -0.7% 5,582 €
70 2.7% 11,705 € 0.5% 5,709 €
71 1.7% 12,005 € 0.5% 5,837 €
72 4.3% 12,618 € 25.0% 7,394 €
73 -0.9% 12,607 € -12.2% 6,593 €
74 11.7% 14,180 € -12.9% 5,844 €
75 -0.1% 14,261 € -21.9% 4,662 €
76 3.0% 14,784 € -3.0% 4,622 €
77 -4.9% 14,162 € -3.2% 4,573 €
78 6.6% 15,197 € 2.1% 4,771 €
79 -0.6% 15,202 € -5.4% 4,615 €
80 6.4% 16,270 € -0.2% 4,706 €
81 0.8% 16,504 € -1.5% 4,736 €
82 7.2% 17,786 € -8.8% 4,418 €
83 -5.6% 16,894 € -0.8% 4,484 €
84 6.9% 18,152 € 3.0% 4,719 €
85 -4.1% 17,500 € -0.4% 4,802 €
86 4.5% 18,394 € -21.6% 3,865 €
87 1.0% 18,686 € -18.0% 3,270 €
88 4.5% 19,636 € -16.4% 2,834 €
89 -0.8% 19,570 € -4.4% 2,809 €
90 3.4% 20,338 € 3.6% 3,009 €
91 0.4% 20,521 € 8.9% 3,377 €
92 3.5% 21,337 € -1.1% 3,439 €
93 3.3% 22,138 € -11.2% 3,153 €
94 -1.8% 21,836 € -1.4% 3,208 €
95 -5.1% 20,823 € 1.1% 3,344 €
96 8.5% 22,689 € -2.6% 3,359 €
97 6.6% 24,280 € -13.7% 2,998 €
98 11.4% 27,159 € -1.2% 3,062 €
99 -0.8% 27,048 € -2.3% 3,091 €
100 1.1% 27,449 € 8.2% 3,444 €
101 -3.3% 26,644 € -13.4% 3,082 €
102 4.0% 27,809 € -9.7% 2,883 €
103 -2.7% 27,169 € 5.9% 3,152 €
104 -2.7% 26,525 € 13.0% 3,661 €
105 2.3% 27,246 € -15.5% 3,195 €
106 2.1% 27,917 € -1.8% 3,236 €
107 3.7% 29,042 € 4.6% 3,484 €
108 8.6% 31,639 € -11.1% 3,199 €
109 1.6% 32,250 € 20.7% 3,962 €
110 2.6% 33,183 € 2.2% 4,148 €
111 0.5% 33,442 € 2.8% 4,366 €
112 -1.1% 33,183 € 0.9% 4,505 €
113 2.6% 34,132 € -6.8% 4,297 €
114 -0.4% 34,084 € 6.1% 4,659 €
115 2.5% 35,032 € 16.8% 5,544 €
116 -1.7% 34,534 € 8.1% 6,093 €
117 5.5% 36,548 € -8.6% 5,672 €
118 2.8% 37,663 € 14.0% 6,566 €
119 -1.1% 37,357 € -16.4% 5,590 €
120 -1.1% 37,043 € -3.8% 5,476 €
121 -8.0% 34,171 € -12.1% 4,912 €
122 4.3% 35,734 € -0.3% 4,999 €
123 -0.6% 35,630 € 24.0% 6,299 €
124 -3.8% 34,378 € 20.5% 7,691 €
125 -5.8% 32,492 € 0.6% 7,836 €
126 -1.6% 32,069 € 3.7% 8,225 €
127 1.1% 32,534 € -8.3% 7,645 €
128 6.4% 34,725 € -6.1% 7,276 €
129 1.6% 35,364 € 10.3% 8,126 €
130 13.0% 40,051 € 8.8% 8,942 €
131 -1.6% 39,493 € 11.4% 10,065 €
132 -1.9% 38,834 € -5.9% 9,575 €
133 -1.7% 38,279 € -7.1% 9,000 €
134 12.7% 43,231 € 4.8% 9,534 €
135 0.3% 43,467 € 3.0% 9,924 €
136 -1.2% 43,062 € -2.5% 9,772 €
137 -7.0% 40,129 € 1.9% 10,063 €
138 -2.0% 39,445 € -11.1% 9,048 €
139 -2.7% 38,467 € -4.0% 8,784 €
140 -1.2% 38,099 € -8.4% 8,148 €
141 6.3% 40,598 € 0.1% 8,255 €
142 -3.7% 39,186 € -19.8% 6,721 €
143 3.8% 40,758 € 2.4% 6,983 €
144 -6.2% 38,325 € -8.4% 6,498 €
145 -2.6% 37,417 € -2.3% 6,450 €
146 1.4% 38,053 € -14.7% 5,599 €
147 9.6% 41,790 € -9.3% 5,180 €
148 2.8% 43,062 € 12.5% 5,928 €
149 -3.1% 41,823 € -0.9% 5,976 €
150 5.0% 44,009 € 1.6% 6,172 €
151 -0.5% 43,873 € 3.8% 6,508 €
152 -4.0% 42,215 € -0.1% 6,603 €
153 -0.2% 42,218 € 2.8% 6,891 €
154 -0.3% 42,192 € -15.1% 5,953 €
155 -0.3% 42,186 € -8.0% 5,578 €
156 1.8% 43,033 € 4.2% 5,912 €
157 9.8% 47,338 € -10.3% 5,404 €
158 -0.6% 47,164 € 1.4% 5,578 €
159 8.0% 51,060 € -0.5% 5,653 €
160 12.2% 57,371 € -19.3% 4,660 €
161 -1.9% 56,403 € 7.5% 5,110 €
162 -2.1% 55,323 € 18.4% 6,148 €
163 1.4% 56,197 € 15.1% 7,180 €
164 -3.5% 54,309 € -3.4% 7,035 €
165 3.9% 56,525 € 18.2% 8,415 €
166 -2.4% 55,285 € 3.1% 8,773 €
167 0.3% 55,567 € 2.7% 9,114 €
168 -6.8% 51,904 € -11.8% 8,143 €
169 -1.4% 51,293 € -1.7% 8,107 €
170 3.1% 52,992 € 23.5% 10,111 €
171 -0.9% 52,613 € -2.7% 9,940 €
172 -5.1% 50,004 € -8.9% 9,157 €
173 -2.0% 49,095 € -12.9% 8,077 €
174 3.4% 50,868 € -6.2% 7,676 €
175 8.9% 55,503 € 16.5% 9,041 €
176 13.1% 62,851 € -1.3% 9,022 €
177 6.0% 66,700 € -6.4% 8,549 €
178 -2.3% 65,264 € -1.8% 8,492 €
179 0.2% 65,511 € -8.2% 7,898 €
180 8.1% 70,923 € 2.9% 8,227 €
181 -0.1% 70,968 € -5.8% 7,846 €
182 -4.0% 68,242 € -5.8% 7,489 €
183 -0.6% 67,936 € 5.2% 7,982 €
184 3.8% 70,605 € -15.4% 6,849 €
185 -7.2% 65,623 € 16.4% 8,069 €
186 -2.8% 63,917 € 1.7% 8,308 €
187 2.5% 65,607 € -5.9% 7,918 €
188 2.0% 67,037 € 10.2% 8,827 €
189 4.9% 70,416 € 0.6% 8,981 €
190 -4.6% 67,279 € -8.8% 8,293 €
191 6.3% 71,650 € 3.1% 8,647 €
192 -5.2% 68,043 € 2.5% 8,964 €
193 -4.2% 65,268 € -8.1% 8,343 €
194 2.3% 66,870 € -13.4% 7,321 €
195 -0.2% 66,833 € -9.0% 6,765 €
196 1.0% 67,631 € -9.1% 6,249 €
197 4.7% 70,929 € 1.1% 6,419 €
198 -7.7% 65,551 € -2.5% 6,359 €
199 -1.6% 64,571 € 11.8% 7,207 €
200 -0.1% 64,635 € -3.4% 7,061 €
201 -7.6% 59,814 € -0.6% 7,117 €
202 -1.0% 59,311 € 0.6% 7,262 €
203 -8.3% 54,464 € 21.6% 8,928 €
204 1.0% 55,103 € -4.3% 8,641 €
205 8.3% 59,797 € 10.6% 9,656 €
206 3.4% 61,929 € 7.3% 10,465 €
207 -10.5% 55,524 € 10.4% 11,652 €
208 -1.5% 54,781 € 19.9% 14,071 €
209 -3.7% 52,836 € 0.7% 14,271 €
210 7.3% 56,787 € 10.0% 15,802 €
211 3.5% 58,888 € -10.0% 14,323 €
212 2.7% 60,598 € -0.8% 14,305 €
213 14.9% 69,747 € 12.6% 16,211 €
214 4.9% 73,233 € -8.6% 14,923 €
215 3.5% 75,925 € 1.4% 15,239 €
216 -0.1% 75,955 € -4.0% 14,728 €
217 -1.4% 75,029 € -2.3% 14,489 €
218 0.5% 75,504 € -10.9% 13,008 €
219 2.6% 77,597 € -0.9% 12,991 €
220 0.0% 77,675 € -8.6% 11,972 €
221 -1.1% 76,958 € 12.5% 13,573 €
222 -6.8% 71,860 € 20.0% 16,387 €
223 1.2% 72,807 € 7.7% 17,745 €
224 14.5% 83,490 € 21.9% 21,727 €
225 0.3% 83,858 € 5.0% 22,923 €
226 -0.2% 83,819 € -4.3% 22,040 €
227 1.9% 85,506 € -14.4% 18,975 €
228 -2.1% 83,789 € -13.2% 16,577 €
229 0.5% 84,283 € -7.4% 15,455 €
230 -5.6% 79,692 € -3.3% 15,041 €
231 -3.7% 76,849 € 3.7% 15,697 €
232 -1.4% 75,888 € -3.7% 15,222 €
233 4.8% 79,640 € 5.0% 16,086 €
234 -2.6% 77,678 € -4.9% 15,400 €
235 3.8% 80,748 € -2.2% 15,165 €
236 -3.4% 78,079 € -8.9% 13,912 €
237 9.7% 85,779 € -2.5% 13,659 €
238 -4.3% 82,220 € -4.7% 13,114 €
239 2.5% 84,384 € -18.1% 10,834 €
240 -5.1% 80,182 € -4.5% 10,446 €
241 -3.0% 77,884 € 18.7% 12,498 €
242 -2.1% 76,381 € 11.1% 13,990 €
243 1.9% 77,918 € -7.1% 13,103 €
244 1.9% 79,518 € 4.7% 13,822 €
245 -1.1% 78,726 € -5.9% 13,107 €
246 16.3% 91,675 € -8.9% 12,039 €
247 -5.5% 86,773 € 8.8% 13,200 €
248 -9.1% 79,002 € 18.4% 15,735 €
249 -4.4% 75,611 € -6.0% 14,890 €
250 0.1% 75,809 € -8.9% 13,669 €
0 each time period in assets with monthly Mean returns of 1.0% and 1.0% See:
hly volatilities are 5.0% and 10.0% http://www.gummy-stuff.org/asset-vo
ves the better final portfolio after 250 months?
9 to get another scenario

Portfolio#2

1 wins
1
28
35
42
49
56
63
70
77
84
91
98

6
3
0
7

1
8
5
2
9
6
3
0
7
4
1
8
5
2
9

4
10
11
11
12
13
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15
16
16
17
18
18
19
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21
21
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24

generated from a lognormal distribution with the prescribed Means and Volatilities.

F9 iterations
of the time

105,166 €
120,817 €

45,020 €
60,670 €
w.gummy-stuff.org/asset-volatility.htm