PRESENTADO POR:
GRUPO: AD
FACULTAD DE INGENIERIA
BARRANQUILLA
2017 - 01
Problem 1.
Solectrics’ production cost for the component is $50 per unit and it plans to sell the
component for $71 per unit to Flextrol. Flextrol incurs essentially no cost
associated with the software integration and handling of each unit. Flextrol sells
these units to consumers for $120 each. Flextrol can sell unsold inventory at the
end of the season in a secondary electronics market for $52 each. The existing
contract specifies that once Flextrol places the order, no changes are allowed to it.
Also, Solectrics does not accept any returns of unsold inventory, so Flextrol must
dispose of excess inventory in the secondary market.
a. What is the probability that Flextrol’s demand will be within 25 percent of its
forecast (Expected value)?
b. What is the probability that Flextrol’s demand will be more than 40 percent
greater than its forecast?
c. Under this contract, how many units should Flextrol order to maximize its
expected profit? Now assuming that Flextrol is going to order 1250 units (Q=1250),
answer the following questions:
e. How many units of inventory can Flextrol expect to sell in the secondary
electronics market?
h. Imagine that Flextrol is able to predict the demand without a forecast error. What
would be the maximum profit under this ideal scenario? (Hint: a perfect forecast
means that there are no expected lost sales nor expected leftover inventory.
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a. What is the probability that Flextrol’s demand will be within 25 percent of
its forecast (Expected value)?
Flextrol
Demanda 1000
σ 500
Precio venta $120 c/u
Vs $52 c/u
C $71 c/u
P (-1,5) = 0,0668
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b. What is the probability that Flextrol’s demand will be more than 40 percent
greater than its forecast?
P (0,8) = 0,7881
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c. Under this contract, how many units should Flextrol order to maximize its
expected profit?
Flextrol
Demanda 1000
σ 500
Precio venta $120 c/u
Vs $52 c/u
C $71 c/u
Para calcular la cantidad óptima a pedir para maximizar las ganancias se procede
a calcular el costo de faltantes y excedentes:
Costo de faltantes:
𝐂𝐅 = 𝐏𝐕 − 𝐂 + 𝐁
CF = $120 − $71
CF = $49
Costo de excedentes:
𝑪𝐄 = 𝐂 − 𝐕𝐒
CE = $71 − $52
CE = $19
𝐂𝐅
𝑷(𝑫 ≤ 𝑸) =
𝑪𝑭 + 𝑪𝑬
$49
𝑃(𝐷 ≤ 𝑄) = = 0,7205
$49 + 19
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Se procede a calcular la cantidad óptima a pedir:
𝐐 = 𝐗 + 𝐙𝛂(𝛔)
𝑄 = 1000 + 0,59(500)
𝑄 = 1295 unidades
Now assuming that Flextrol is going to order 1250 units (Q=1250), answer the
following questions:
Flextrol
Demanda 1000
σ 500
Precio venta $120 c/u
VS $52 c/u
C $71 c/u
Q 1250 und
z 0,7205
Para calcular las ventas perdidas esperadas debemos calcular primero las ventas
perdidas esperadas:
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e. How many units of inventory can Flextrol expect to sell in the secondary
electronics market?
𝐆𝐚𝐧𝐚𝐧𝐜𝐢𝐚 𝐞𝐬𝐩𝐞𝐫𝐚𝐝𝐚
= [(PV − C)venta esp. −(C − VS)Excedente esp. −B
∗ Ventas perdidas esp.
𝐆𝐚𝐧𝐚𝐧𝐜𝐢𝐚 𝐞𝐬𝐩𝐞𝐫𝐚𝐝𝐚
= [($120 − $71) ∗ 1180,95 − ($71 − $52) ∗ 1228,06 − 0 ∗ 69,05
Soletrics’s
C $50 c/u
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h. Imagine that Flextrol is able to predict the demand without a forecast error.
What would be the maximum profit under this ideal scenario? (Hint: a perfect
forecast means that there are no expected lost sales nor expected leftover
inventory.
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