Trips that will begin or end in each zone within a study area TRIP GENERATION ESTIMATE TRIP GENERATION ESTIMATE • Estimate by Regression Model • Estimate by Trip Rates • Estimate by Cross Classification or Category Analysis • Estimate by Balancing Trip Productions and Attraction TRIP RATES CROSS CLASSIFICATION CROSS CLASSIFICATION • Extension of simple trip rate models • Sometimes referred to as category analysis model, is based on the assumption that the number of trips generated by similar households or households belonging to the same category is the same. • The model predicts the trips produced by a zone by simply aggregating the total trips produced by the all the households in that zone.
INPUT A. Survey • Conduct a survey of households in the Study Area • Categorize the according to income and auto ownership
B. Graphs Graphs No. of HH in Category = HH x I% x A% Trips in Category = Trip rate x No of HH in Category
where I = Zone income versus % of household in each income category
A = Auto Ownership versus % of household in each income category T = Trips per household versus income category No. of HH in Category No. of Trips in Category DISCRETE CHOICE METHOD Introduction •Modeling travel behavior is a key aspect of demand analysis, where aggregate demand is the accumulation of individuals’ decisions. The most important short-term travel decisions include choice of destination for a non-work trip, choice of travel mode, choice of departure time and choice of route. Introduction •It is important to note that short-term decisions are conditional on long-term travel and mobility decisions such as car ownership and residential and work locations. Discrete Choice Analysis - is the methodology used to analyze and predict travel decisions. Random Utility Model - is the most common theoretical basis of discrete choice models. Two Specific Short Term Travel Decisions: •route choice •departure time choice. General Framework of Discrete Choice Models 1. Decision-maker •Defining the decision-making entity and its characteristics; •Individual (person/household) •Socio-economic characteristics (e.g. Age, gender,income, vehicle ownership) General Framework of Discrete Choice Models 2. Alternatives •Determining the options available to the decisionmaker; •Decision-maker n selects one and only one alternative from a choice set Cn={1,2,…,i,…,Jn} with Jn alternatives General Framework of Discrete Choice Models 3. Attributes •Measuring the benefits and costs of an alternative to the decision-maker; example: travel time and cost General Framework of Discrete Choice Models 4. Decision rule •Describing the process used by the decision- maker to choose an alternative. •Dominance, satisfaction, utility etc. Example: Travel Mode to Work • Decision maker: an individual worker • Choice: whether to drive to work or take the bus to work • Goods: bus, auto • Utility function: U(X) = U(bus, auto) • Consumption bundles: {1,0} (person takes bus) {0,1} (person drives) What will be the Consumer’s Choice? •Consumers maximize utility – Choose the alternative that has the maximum utility (and falls within the income constraint) If U(bus) > U(auto) -> choose bus If U(bus) < U(auto) -> choose auto U(bus)=? U(auto)=? Constructing the Utility Function U(bus) = U(walk time, in-vehicle time, fare, …) U(auto) = U(travel time, parking cost, …) • Assume linear (in the parameters) U(bus) = β1×(walk time) + β2 ×(in-vehicle time) + … • Parameters represent tastes, which may vary over people. • Include socio-economic characteristics (e.g., age, gender, income) • U(bus) = β1 ×(walk time) + β2 ×(in-vehicle time) + β3 ×(cost/income) + … • Deterministic Binary Choice If U(bus) - U(auto) > 0 , Probability(bus) = 1 • If U(bus) - U(auto) < 0 , Probability(bus) = 0 TRIP BALANCING TRIP BALANCING • Final step in trip generation • One of the premises of trip generation is that total productions must equal total attractions. • However, since trip production and attraction models are independently developed, this equality is not guaranteed. • To bring the regional totals in balance, either the zonal productions or attractions are scaled to equal regional control totals. • The ratio of area productions to attractions by purpose should be between 0.9 and 1.1 before balancing. If there is not a close match, reasons for the lack of match should be investigated. BALANCING ATTRACTIONS AND PRODUCTIONS • In the majority of cases especially home-based trips, the control totals of trips are the regional totals of trip productions by purpose. • This is due to the fact that generally there is a greater degree of confidence in household data than in employment data. • Usually, models for predicting productions are better models. • The exception is for non-home-based (NHB) trips where trip attractions are used as the control totals and productions are scaled to match attraction totals. EXAMPLE: Home-Based Work (HBW) Computed Attractions and Productions Traffic Analysis Zone Productions Attractions (TAZ) 1 25 980 2 125 330 3 350 490 4 800 70 5 600 230 TOTAL 1900 2100 Solution: Use trip productions as control total