R e s d e n t i al V I l l a s
2018
- For years industry has had a very poor reputation for coping with the adverse effects of
change, with many projects failing to meet deadlines, cost and quality targets. This is not
too surprising considering that there are no known perfect engineers, any more than
there are perfect designs or that the forces of nature behave in a perfectly predictable
way. Change cannot be eliminated, but by applying the principles of risk management,
engineers are be able to improve the effective management of this change.
Change is normally regarded in terms of adverse effects on project cost and programs.
In extreme cases the risk maybe turning a potentially profitable investment into a loss-
making venture. A risk event implies that there is a range of outcomes for the event
which be both more and less favorable than the most likely outcome, and that each
outcome within the range has a probability of occurrence. The combinations of risks can
be termed as “Project Risks”.
- There are three types of risk –according to the source & impact- can be show as follow.
Risk
b. Opportunities :
Risks that will have a negative impact on a project objectives if it occurs.
c. Residual Risks :
Risks that remains even after developing responses to the project’s original risks.
d. Secondary Risks :
Risks caused by responses to the project’s original risks.
Risk
terminology
secondary
threats opportunities residual risks
risks
Risk management
Is a structured way to think about risk an how to deal with in a systematic process of
planning, identifying, analyzing, responding to and monitoring project risk.
The response that must be taken is Managing Risks to increase opportunities to
improve the project’s objectives with lower cost, shorter schedule, enhanced scope and
higher quality. And decrease threats that has negative events on project scope, cost,
schedule and quality.
Planning
Monitoring Identifying
Risk
management
Responding Qualitative
Quantative
1. Risk management Planning :
It’s the process of deciding how to approach and conduct the risk management
activities for the project.
2. Risk Identification :
It’s the process of determining which risks may affect the project and documenting
their characteristics.
Expert judgment
Diagramming techniques :
a. Causes and effect diagrams
b. Flow chart
And by using one of the tools of risk identification (brain storming) we can collect many
categories of risks as:
Risk Cateogry
Project Construction
Enviromenta Organizitional Engineering
Design Risks External Risks Management
Risks Risks Risks Services Risks
Risks
3. Qualitative risk analysis :
It’s the process that assesses the impact and likelihood of the identified risks and
develops prioritized lists of these risks for further analysis.
high likely 80
medium possible 50
low unlikely 40
high critical 8
medium moderate 4
low normal 2
90% 0.9 1.8 2.7 3.6 4.5 5.4 6.3 7.2 8.1 9
80% 0.8 1.6 2.4 3.2 4 4.8 5.6 6.4 7.2 8 high
70% 0.7 1.4 2.1 2.8 3.5 4.2 4.9 5.6 6.3 7
Probability%
low
30% 0.3 0.6 0.9 1.2 1.5 1.8 2.1 2.4 2.7 3
10% 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.4 0.5 0.6 0.7 0.8 0.9 1 V.L
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10
Impact
Evaluating Impact of a Risk on Major Project Objectives
Impact <1 2 4 8 ≥ 10
delivery
delivery delivery
plan and
plan and plan and delivery plan
Insignificant milestone
milestone milestone and milestone
Time schedule
delay delay of
delay of
delay outside
seepage more
within one fiscal year
than one
quarter quarter
quarter
Objective
Insignificant < 5 % 5 - 10 % 10 - 20 %
> 20 % cost
Cost cost cost cost cost
increase
increase increase increase increase
Sponsor
changes changes does not
in cost in cost agree
scope scope does not
limits limits that.
decrease is meet the
Scope barely
with with 5 - scope
purpose and
<5% 10 % meet the
noticeable needs
cost cost purpose
increase increase and
needs
That had been checked by Eng. Nourhan a technical office engineer as following:
Design Risks
Exist OR
Risk Name Probability % Impact Rank
Not
R1:Design incomplete Exist 30 (unlikely) 6 1.8
R5:Changes to
Exist 50 (possible) 8 4
materials/geotechnical/foundation
Exist OR Probability
Risk Name Impact % Rank
Not %
R85:Buried man-made
---- ----
objects/unidentified hazardous waste
External Risks
Exist OR Probability
Risk Name Impact Rank
Not %
Local communities pose objections Exist 30
5
Unreasonably high expectations from
Exist 40
stakeholders
3
6
Organizational Risks
Exist OR Probability
Risk Name Impact Rank
Not %
Environmental Risks
Exist OR Probability
Risk Name Impact Rank
Not %
2
Construction Risk
Exist OR Probability
Risk Name Exist OR Not Rank
Not %
Inaccurate contract time estimates Exist 40
It’s the process that makes numerically estimates the probability that a
project will meet its cost and time objectives. Quantitative analysis is
based on a simultaneous evaluation of the impacts of all identified and
quantified risks.