00
Adani Power ADANI IN PRIOR TP
CLOSE
INR160.00
INR140.45
BUY
INDIA / INDEPENDENT POWER PRODUCERS UP/DOWNSIDE +13.9% UNCHANGED
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Southern Co SO US 36.90 30,653 9.6 8.8 8.3 8.0 15.3 14.6 13.7 1.8 1.7 1.6 12.4 12.5 12.6
Nextera Energy NEE US 54.29 22,576 8.5 8.1 7.5 6.7 12.4 12.0 11.3 1.6 1.5 1.3 13.3 12.9 12.6
Duke Energy Corp DUK US 17.34 22,866 8.0 7.5 7.0 6.7 13.1 12.9 12.5 1.0 1.0 1.0 8.0 7.8 7.8
Dominion Res D US 43.82 25,816 8.3 8.3 8.0 2.1 13.2 13.6 13.5 2.1 2.0 1.9 16.0 14.8 13.9
FirstEnergy Corp FE US 37.43 11,410 6.9 6.9 7.0 -0.8 10.3 9.9 10.8 1.3 1.2 1.2 12.7 12.0 11.2
CR Power 836 HK 16.70 10,115 11.0 8.6 7.4 21.5 13.8 11.7 10.4 1.9 1.7 1.5 13.9 14.5 14.8
Huadian Power 1071 HK 1.83 337 11.9 9.7 8.3 19.4 23.8 14.2 10.5 0.8 0.7 0.7 2.7 4.5 6.3
SDIC Huajing Pwr 600886 CH 7.57 2,223 23.3 47.6 47.9 -30.2 32.4 21.8 22.3 1.9 1.9 1.8 4.9 5.9 7.1
Datang Int’l 991 HK 3.14 1,340 16.0 13.6 11.5 17.9 20.4 15.0 11.9 1.3 1.2 1.0 6.8 8.7 10.0
Global power utilities – Median (ex Adani Power) 9.6 8.6 8.0 13.8 13.6 11.9 1.6 1.5 1.3 12.4 12.0 11.2
Overall median (ex Adani Power) 10.8 8.6 7.7 16.0 14.2 12.2 1.9 1.9 1.7 13.3 12.9 12.6
Year- ending March for India. For China and North America, estimates are for immediate previous year ending December
Prices as at last closing trade
Sources: ^ BNP Paribas estimates, all others (Not rated, except CR Power, Huadian Power and Datang) are Bloomberg consensus estimates
2 BNP PARIBAS
GIRISH NAIR ADANI POWER 9 SEPTEMBER 2010
Adani Power And MSCI India (3M And 6M Realised-Vol) Regression – Adani Power Rel to Lanco Infratech
(%)
137
70
60 127
50
Adani Power
117
40
107
30
20 97
10
87
0 9 19 29 39 49 59 69 79
Aug-09 Aug-10 Lanco Infratech
Adani Power = 19 + 2.49 * LANCI IN Equity
Adani Power - 3M Realised - Vol Adani Power - 6M Realised - Vol
R Square = 0.6028
MSCI India - 3M Realised - Vol MSCI India - 6M Realised - Vol Regression based on 55 observations of 5 years weekly data. Please refer to Appendix 1 for the
explanation of R-square
Sources: Bloomberg; BNP Paribas Sources: Bloomberg; BNP Paribas
0.49
-1s
• With our Risk Expert page, we identify the key macro risks
0.44
that can impact stock performance.
0.39 -2s
0.34
Aug-09 Feb-10 Aug-10 • This analysis enhances the fundamental work laid out in
Adani Power - NTPC the rest of this report, giving investors yet another resource
to use in their decision-making process.
3 BNP PARIBAS
GIRISH NAIR ADANI POWER 9 SEPTEMBER 2010
FINANCIAL STATEMENTS
Adani Power
Profit and Loss (INR m)
Year Ending Mar 2009A 2010A 2011E 2012E 2013E We estimate very strong
Revenue 0 4,349 25,507 83,153 133,122 top-line growth as power
Cost of sales ex depreciation 0 (1,667) (8,045) (27,171) (45,335)
generation capacity is set
Gross profit ex depreciation 0 2,682 17,462 55,982 87,786
Other operating income 0 0 0 0 0 to grow from 0 to 6.6GW
Operating costs (28) (236) (1,597) (3,266) (7,147) over FY10-13
Operating EBITDA (28) 2,446 15,865 52,716 80,639
Depreciation 0 (374) (1,565) (5,816) (10,804)
Goodwill amortisation 0 0 0 0 0
Operating EBIT (28) 2,072 14,300 46,901 69,835
Net financing costs 0 425 (2,302) (6,651) (20,084)
Associates 0 0 0 0 0
Recurring non operating income 0 0 0 0 0
Non recurring items 0 0 0 0 0
Profit before tax (28) 2,497 11,998 40,249 49,751
Tax 0 (260) (2,090) (7,916) (9,855)
Profit after tax (28) 2,237 9,907 32,333 39,896
Minority interests 0 0 0 (1,864) (2,994)
Preferred dividends 0 0 0 0 0
Other items 0 0 0 0 0
Reported net profit (28) 2,237 9,907 30,470 36,902
Non recurring items & goodwill (net) 0 0 0 0 0
Recurring net profit (28) 2,237 9,907 30,470 36,902
4 BNP PARIBAS
GIRISH NAIR ADANI POWER 9 SEPTEMBER 2010
Adani Power
Cash Flow (INR m)
Year Ending Mar 2009A 2010A 2011E 2012E 2013E
Recurring net profit (28) 2,237 9,907 30,470 36,902
Depreciation 0 374 1,565 5,816 10,804
Associates & minorities 0 0 0 1,864 2,994
Other non-cash items 0 0 0 0 0
Recurring cash flow (28) 2,610 11,472 38,149 50,700
Change in working capital 0 (5,608) (4,485) (9,848) (8,505)
Capex - maintenance 0 0 0 0 0
Capex – new investment (45,746) (95,862) (85,264) (32,990) (4,000)
Free cash flow to equity (45,773) (98,860) (78,278) (4,689) 38,195
Net acquisitions & disposals 0 0 0 0 0
Dividends paid 0 0 0 0 0
Non recurring cash flows 532 0 0 0 0
Net cash flow (45,241) (98,860) (78,278) (4,689) 38,195
Equity finance 9,231 34,853 1,135 487 0
Debt finance 39,785 75,732 64,709 19,903 (12,348)
Movement in cash 3,776 11,725 (12,433) 15,701 25,847
Per share (INR)
Recurring cash flow per share (0.02) 1.27 5.26 17.50 23.26
FCF to equity per share (26.38) (48.15) (35.91) (2.15) 17.52
Balance Sheet (INR m)
Year Ending Mar 2009A 2010A 2011E 2012E 2013E
Working capital assets 4,163 4,163 9,990 23,025 34,558
Working capital liabilities (5,620) (11) (1,352) (4,540) (7,567)
Net working capital (1,456) 4,152 8,638 18,485 26,990
Tangible fixed assets 69,213 164,702 248,402 275,577 268,772
Operating invested capital 67,757 168,854 257,040 294,062 295,763
Goodwill 0 0 0 0 0
Other intangible assets 97 97 97 97 97
Investments 0 0 0 0 0
Other assets 0 0 0 0 0
Invested capital 67,854 168,951 257,136 294,159 295,859
Cash & equivalents (5,585) (17,310) (4,877) (20,578) (46,425)
Short term debt 0 0 0 0 0
Long term debt * 49,897 125,629 190,338 210,241 197,893
Net debt 44,311 108,318 185,461 189,663 151,468
Deferred tax 0 0 0 0 0
Other liabilities 0 0 0 0 0
Total equity 22,839 59,010 68,918 99,387 136,290
Minority interests 703 1,622 2,758 5,108 8,102
Invested capital 67,854 168,951 257,136 294,159 295,859
* includes convertibles and preferred stock which is being treated as debt
Per share (INR)
Book value per share 12.40 27.07 31.61 45.59 62.52
Tangible book value per share 12.35 27.02 31.57 45.55 62.47
Financial strength
Net debt/equity (%) 188.2 178.6 258.8 181.5 104.9
Net debt/total assets (%) 56.0 58.2 70.4 59.4 43.3
Current ratio (x) 1.7 1,902.0 11.0 9.6 10.7
CF interest cover (x) - - 4.0 5.3 3.1
Valuation 2009A 2010A 2011E 2012E 2013E
Recurring P/E (x) * neg 128.9 30.9 10.0 8.3
Recurring P/E @ target price (x) * neg 146.9 35.2 11.4 9.5
Reported P/E (x) neg 128.9 30.9 10.0 8.3
Dividend yield (%) 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
P/CF (x) (8,783.6) 110.5 26.7 8.0 6.0
P/FCF (x) (5.3) (2.9) (3.9) (65.3) 8.0
Price/book (x) 11.3 5.2 4.4 3.1 2.2
Price/tangible book (x) 11.4 5.2 4.4 3.1 2.2
EV/EBITDA (x) ** (7,017.1) 147.1 28.7 9.4 6.0
EV/EBITDA @ target price (x) ** (7,860.4) 163.2 31.4 10.2 6.5
EV/invested capital (x) 4.5 2.5 1.9 1.7 1.6
* Pre exceptional, pre-goodwill and fully diluted
** EBITDA includes associate income and recurring non-operating income
Sources: Adani Power; BNP Paribas estimates
5 BNP PARIBAS
GIRISH NAIR ADANI POWER 9 SEPTEMBER 2010
6 BNP PARIBAS
GIRISH NAIR ADANI POWER 9 SEPTEMBER 2010
ANALYST(S)
Girish Nair, BNP Paribas Securities India Pvt Ltd, +91 22 6628 2449, girish.nair@asia.bnpparibas.com.
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Recommendation structure
All share prices are as at market close on 8 September 2010 unless otherwise stated. Stock recommendations are based on absolute upside
(downside), which we define as (target price* - current price) / current price. If the upside is 10% or more, the recommendation is BUY. If the
downside is 10% or more, the recommendation is REDUCE. For stocks where the upside or downside is less than 10%, the recommendation is
HOLD. In addition, we have key buy and key sell lists in each market, which are our most commercial and/or actionable BUY and REDUCE calls
and are limited to at most five key buys and five key sells in each market at any point in time.
Unless otherwise specified, these recommendations are set with a 12-month horizon. Thus, it is possible that future price volatility may cause a
temporary mismatch between upside/downside for a stock based on market price and the formal recommendation.
*In most cases, the target price will equal the analyst's assessment of the current fair value of the stock. However, if the analyst doesn't think the market
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therefore, our recommendation is an assessment of the mismatch between current market price and our assessment of current fair value.
Rating distribution (as at 8 September 2010)
Out of 478 rated stocks in the BNP Paribas coverage universe, 299 have BUY ratings, 130 are rated HOLD and 49 are rated REDUCE. Within
these rating categories, 3.34% of the BUY-rated companies either currently are or have been BNP Paribas clients in the past 12 months, 4.62% of
the HOLD-rated companies are or have been clients in the past 12 months, and 10.20% of the REDUCE-rated companies are or have been clients
in the past 12 months.
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7 BNP PARIBAS