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TARGET INR160.

00
Adani Power ADANI IN PRIOR TP
CLOSE
INR160.00
INR140.45
BUY
INDIA / INDEPENDENT POWER PRODUCERS UP/DOWNSIDE +13.9% UNCHANGED

HOW WE DIFFER FROM THE STREET INDUSTRY OUTLOOK Ï NEW INFORMATION


BNP Consensus % Diff
Target Price (INR)
EPS 2011 (INR)
160.00
4.54
141.79
4.06
12.8
11.8
Export duty worries abate
EPS 2012 (INR) 13.98 13.32 5.0 ƒ Export duty significantly lower than the initial proposal.
Positive Neutral Negative ƒ No significant downside to our estimates even in the worst case.
Market Recs. 12 2 4 ƒ Reiterate Adani Power as our top pick.
KEY STOCK DATA ƒ Retain BUY with TP of INR160.00.
YE Mar (INR m) 2011E 2012E 2013E Export duty proposal diluted
Revenue 25,507 83,153 133,122 The government has revised the export
Rec. net profit 9,907 30,470 36,902 duty on the export of power outside an
Recurring EPS (INR) 4.54 13.98 16.93
SEZ from 16% of sales to a flat rate of
INR0.1/kWh. This means that for Adani
Prior rec. EPS (INR) 4.54 13.98 16.93
Power’s (APL) 4.6GW Mundra project, the
Chg. In EPS est. (%) 0.0 0.0 0.0 risk of a 16% export duty on spot power
EPS growth (%) 317.1 207.5 21.1 sales is removed (duty is a pass-through
Recurring P/E (x) 30.9 10.0 8.3 for PPA sales) and the duty incidence is
Dividend yield (%) 0.0 0.0 0.0
only 3% (assuming spot power prices of
INR3.5/kWh). We believe this will boost Girish Nair
EV/EBITDA (x) 28.7 9.4 6.0 +91 22 6628 2449
sentiment and remove overhang on the girish.nair@asia.bnpparibas.com
Price/book (x) 4.4 3.1 2.2 stock. However, it is unclear whether the
Net debt/Equity 258.8 181.5 104.9 duty will be applied retrospectively or
ROE (%) 15.5 36.2 31.3 going forward and whether APL will have to continue paying a 5%
custom duty on coal imports given that APL will pay an export duty.
(INR) Adani Power (%)
Rel to MSCI India Downside in worst case looks immaterial
17 Recall that we had argued in our report, Plug In; More Upside Left, dated
140
7 19 August 2010, that if APL is hit with a 16% export duty, it would choose
120
(3) to give up its SEZ status and pay MAT instead of paying an export duty.
100 (13) We had accordingly assumed a 20% cash tax rate in FY11 and FY12.
80 (23) Now with the export duty incidence declining to just 3%, APL can retain
Sep-09 Dec-09 Mar-10 Jun-10 Sep-10 its SEZ status and enjoy tax incentives in FY11 and FY12. We believe
APL will have to pay MAT starting FY13, when the direct tax code (DTC)
Share price performance 1 Month 3 Month 12 Month comes into effect. The DTC is under discussion and the proposal is to get
Absolute (%) 2.6 15.6 36.8 units in SEZs to pay MAT, rather than nothing at all. Even if APL pays
Relative to country (%) 7.3 7.7 18.3 20% MAT in FY11 and FY12 and continues paying 5% custom duty on
Next results November 2010 coal imports, the downside to our EPS would be only 1.5% in FY11E and
Mkt cap (USD m) 6,537 3.4% in FY12E. This would reduce our fair value to INR158. In case APL
3m avg daily turnover (USD m) 4.3 is exempt from paying customs duty, there would be no change to our
Free float (%) 30
estimates or fair value.
Major shareholder Adani Enterprises (70%)
Retain TP of INR160.00; reiterate APL as our top pick
12m high/low (INR) 141.40/90.80 APL is our top pick among Indian power companies we cover, as we
3m historic vol. (%) 26.6 believe it will be the fastest growing IPP on the back of solid execution.
ADR ticker - We retain our DCF-based price target of INR160.00. We value APL’s
ADR closing price (USD) - 6.6GW of projects by estimating project free cash flows for the next 15
Sources : Bloomberg consensus; BNP Paribas estimates
years and then discounting it using project-specific WACCs. We
consolidate the project discounted cash flows and assume a 3% terminal
RECENT COMPANY & SECTOR RESEARCH growth rate. For our WACC calculation, we continue to assume a cost of
No downside from ruling..................................... 2 Sep 2010 equity of 15% and a cost of debt of 11.5%. APL trades at our FY13E
Plug in; More upside left ................................... 18 Aug 2010
EV/EBITDA of 6.0x vs the global peers at 7.6x, based on our own and
Bloomberg consensus estimates (Exhibit 1). Key risks stem from lower-
Growth further slows down............................... 17 Aug 2010
than expected merchant tariffs, execution delays, lower utilization and
Divergent 1H10 results ahead............................. 5 Aug 2010 higher-than-expected coal costs.

BNP Paribas Securities Asia research is available on Thomson One, Bloomberg, TheMarkets.com, Factset and on http://equities.bnpparibas.com. Please contact your
salesperson for authorisation. Please see the important notice on the back page.

PREPARED BY BNP PARIBAS SECURITIES ASIA 9 September 2010


THIS MATERIAL HAS BEEN APPROVED FOR U.S DISTRIBUTION. IMPORTANT DISCLOSURES CAN BE FOUND IN THE DISCLOSURES APPENDIX.
GIRISH NAIR ADANI POWER 9 SEPTEMBER 2010

Exhibit 1: Relative Valuation Comparison


2-year
Share Market —— EV-EBITDA —— EBITDA –——— P/E –——— –——— P/BV –——— –——— ROE –———
Company BBG code price cap FY11E FY12E FY13E growth FY11E FY12E FY13E FY11E FY12E FY13E FY11E FY12E FY13E
(LC) (USD m) (x) (x) (x) (%) (x) (x) (x) (x) (x) (x) (%) (%) (%)
Adani Power^ ADANI IN 140.15 6,549 28.3 9.3 5.9 125.5 30.8 10.0 8.3 4.4 3.1 2.2 15.5 36.2 31.3
NTPC^ NATP IN 199.5 35,262 14.0 11.4 10.0 18.3 18.7 15.6 13.7 2.6 2.4 2.1 15.6 16.1 16.2
NHPC^ NHPC IN 30.7 8,095 12.8 9.2 8.0 26.1 21.3 15.4 12.5 1.4 1.3 1.2 8.1 8.3 9.2
Power Grid^ PWGR IN 106.2 9,582 12.1 9.7 7.6 26.1 20.7 17.8 13.8 2.7 2.2 2.0 13.8 14.3 15.2
Tata Power TPWR IN 1270.1 6,461 11.6 9.4 6.8 30.3 16.7 14.4 12.3 2.4 2.1 1.9 14.9 15.8 16.8
Reliance Power^ RPWR IN 156 8,015 65.2 27.5 11.5 137.9 59.3 55.0 28.2 2.6 2.5 2.4 3.8 3.7 2.8
JSW Energy JSW IN 134 4,711 10.8 6.6 7.9 17.2 16.0 9.9 12.2 3.7 2.8 2.5 25.7 30.8 20.9
Jindal Steel & Pwr JSP IN 710 14,214 10.2 8.4 7.3 18.1 14.6 12.0 11.0 4.6 3.4 2.7 36.1 32.5 27.0
Torrent Power TPW IN 340 3,443 8.7 7.9 na na 13.5 12.2 NA 3.4 2.8 nm 23.5 23.1 na
CESC CESC IN 396.15 1,061 7.5 7.0 6.0 12.0 10.6 9.9 9.0 1.1 1.1 0.9 10.2 10.2 9.8
Lanco Infratech LANCI IN 68.85 3,554 7.0 5.2 4.3 27.4 16.4 15.3 10.7 3.5 2.7 1.9 22.3 20.6 26.9
India power utilities – median (ex Adani Power) 11.2 8.8 7.6 26.1 16.5 14.8 12.3 2.7 2.4 2.0 15.3 16.0 16.2

Southern Co SO US 36.90 30,653 9.6 8.8 8.3 8.0 15.3 14.6 13.7 1.8 1.7 1.6 12.4 12.5 12.6
Nextera Energy NEE US 54.29 22,576 8.5 8.1 7.5 6.7 12.4 12.0 11.3 1.6 1.5 1.3 13.3 12.9 12.6
Duke Energy Corp DUK US 17.34 22,866 8.0 7.5 7.0 6.7 13.1 12.9 12.5 1.0 1.0 1.0 8.0 7.8 7.8
Dominion Res D US 43.82 25,816 8.3 8.3 8.0 2.1 13.2 13.6 13.5 2.1 2.0 1.9 16.0 14.8 13.9
FirstEnergy Corp FE US 37.43 11,410 6.9 6.9 7.0 -0.8 10.3 9.9 10.8 1.3 1.2 1.2 12.7 12.0 11.2
CR Power 836 HK 16.70 10,115 11.0 8.6 7.4 21.5 13.8 11.7 10.4 1.9 1.7 1.5 13.9 14.5 14.8
Huadian Power 1071 HK 1.83 337 11.9 9.7 8.3 19.4 23.8 14.2 10.5 0.8 0.7 0.7 2.7 4.5 6.3
SDIC Huajing Pwr 600886 CH 7.57 2,223 23.3 47.6 47.9 -30.2 32.4 21.8 22.3 1.9 1.9 1.8 4.9 5.9 7.1
Datang Int’l 991 HK 3.14 1,340 16.0 13.6 11.5 17.9 20.4 15.0 11.9 1.3 1.2 1.0 6.8 8.7 10.0
Global power utilities – Median (ex Adani Power) 9.6 8.6 8.0 13.8 13.6 11.9 1.6 1.5 1.3 12.4 12.0 11.2
Overall median (ex Adani Power) 10.8 8.6 7.7 16.0 14.2 12.2 1.9 1.9 1.7 13.3 12.9 12.6
Year- ending March for India. For China and North America, estimates are for immediate previous year ending December
Prices as at last closing trade
Sources: ^ BNP Paribas estimates, all others (Not rated, except CR Power, Huadian Power and Datang) are Bloomberg consensus estimates

2 BNP PARIBAS
GIRISH NAIR ADANI POWER 9 SEPTEMBER 2010

—— Base —— —— Best —— —— Worst —— Key Earnings Drivers & Sensitivity


Year-end 31 Mar 2011E 2012E 2011E 2012E 2011E 2012E ƒ Merchant tariffs – A 10% change in merchant tariffs would
Merchant tariff (INR/kWh) 4.50 3.50 5.00 4.00 4.00 3.00 impact our base-case FY12E EPS by 14.4%.
EPS (INR) 4.54 13.98 4.90 16.83 4.16 11.12
Change (%) 7.9 20.4 (8.4) (20.5) ƒ Utilization – A 5% change in utilization rates would impact
our FY12E EPS by 6.6%.

ƒ Coal costs – A 10% increase in fuel costs would impact our


FY12E EPS by 3.6%.

Sources: BNP Paribas estimates

Adani Power And MSCI India (3M And 6M Realised-Vol) Regression – Adani Power Rel to Lanco Infratech

(%)
137
70
60 127

50
Adani Power
117
40
107
30
20 97
10
87
0 9 19 29 39 49 59 69 79
Aug-09 Aug-10 Lanco Infratech
Adani Power = 19 + 2.49 * LANCI IN Equity
Adani Power - 3M Realised - Vol Adani Power - 6M Realised - Vol
R Square = 0.6028
MSCI India - 3M Realised - Vol MSCI India - 6M Realised - Vol Regression based on 55 observations of 5 years weekly data. Please refer to Appendix 1 for the
explanation of R-square
Sources: Bloomberg; BNP Paribas Sources: Bloomberg; BNP Paribas

India Sector Correlation Matrix at 15 July 2010


India India India Engineering India Software & India Metals & India Oil & India India India
Autos Banks & Construct Services Mining Gas Property Telcos Utilities
India Autos 1.000 0.688 0.701 0.569 0.724 0.672 0.630 0.599 0.688
India Banks 1.000 0.838 0.582 0.713 0.733 0.747 0.683 0.781
India Engineering & Construct 1.000 0.593 0.739 0.756 0.785 0.711 0.792
India Software & Services 1.000 0.555 0.584 0.452 0.500 0.563
India Metals & Mining 1.000 0.768 0.716 0.642 0.744
India Oil & Gas 1.000 0.656 0.671 0.787
India Property 1.000 0.672 0.733
India Telcos 1.000 0.733
India Utilities 1.000

Source: BNP Paribas Sector Strategy

Long/Short Chart The Risk Experts


(x) The Risk Experts
0.79 • Our starting point for this page is recognition of the macro
0.74
+2s factors that can have a significant impact on stock-price
0.69
0.64
performance, sometimes independently of bottom-up
+1s
0.59 factors.
0.54 Mean

0.49
-1s
• With our Risk Expert page, we identify the key macro risks
0.44
that can impact stock performance.
0.39 -2s
0.34
Aug-09 Feb-10 Aug-10 • This analysis enhances the fundamental work laid out in
Adani Power - NTPC the rest of this report, giving investors yet another resource
to use in their decision-making process.

Sources: BNP Paribas estimates

3 BNP PARIBAS
GIRISH NAIR ADANI POWER 9 SEPTEMBER 2010

FINANCIAL STATEMENTS

Adani Power
Profit and Loss (INR m)
Year Ending Mar 2009A 2010A 2011E 2012E 2013E We estimate very strong
Revenue 0 4,349 25,507 83,153 133,122 top-line growth as power
Cost of sales ex depreciation 0 (1,667) (8,045) (27,171) (45,335)
generation capacity is set
Gross profit ex depreciation 0 2,682 17,462 55,982 87,786
Other operating income 0 0 0 0 0 to grow from 0 to 6.6GW
Operating costs (28) (236) (1,597) (3,266) (7,147) over FY10-13
Operating EBITDA (28) 2,446 15,865 52,716 80,639
Depreciation 0 (374) (1,565) (5,816) (10,804)
Goodwill amortisation 0 0 0 0 0
Operating EBIT (28) 2,072 14,300 46,901 69,835
Net financing costs 0 425 (2,302) (6,651) (20,084)
Associates 0 0 0 0 0
Recurring non operating income 0 0 0 0 0
Non recurring items 0 0 0 0 0
Profit before tax (28) 2,497 11,998 40,249 49,751
Tax 0 (260) (2,090) (7,916) (9,855)
Profit after tax (28) 2,237 9,907 32,333 39,896
Minority interests 0 0 0 (1,864) (2,994)
Preferred dividends 0 0 0 0 0
Other items 0 0 0 0 0
Reported net profit (28) 2,237 9,907 30,470 36,902
Non recurring items & goodwill (net) 0 0 0 0 0
Recurring net profit (28) 2,237 9,907 30,470 36,902

Per share (INR)


Recurring EPS * (0.02) 1.09 4.54 13.98 16.93
Reported EPS (0.02) 1.09 4.54 13.98 16.93
DPS 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00
Growth
Revenue (%) 0.0 43,486,310. 486.6 226.0 60.1
Operating EBITDA (%) (61.3) (8,914.3) 548.6 232.3 53.0
Operating EBIT (%) (61.3) (7,568.2) 590.0 228.0 48.9
Recurring EPS (%) (75.9) (6,864.4) 317.1 207.5 21.1
Reported EPS (%) (75.9) (6,864.4) 317.1 207.5 21.1
Operating performance
Gross margin inc depreciation (%) - 53.1 62.3 60.3 57.8
Operating EBITDA margin (%) (277,500.0) 56.2 62.2 63.4 60.6
Operating EBIT margin (%) (277,500.0) 47.7 56.1 56.4 52.5
Net margin (%) (279,520.0) 51.4 38.8 36.6 27.7
Effective tax rate (%) - 10.4 17.4 19.7 19.8
Dividend payout on recurring profit (%) - 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
Interest cover (x) - - 6.2 7.1 3.5
Inventory days - 0.0 35.7 44.2 53.2
Debtor days 108,148,22 349.5 90.0 58.0 60.8
Creditor days - 613.9 30.4 39.4 48.6
Operating ROIC (%) (0.1) 1.6 5.5 13.7 19.0
Operating ROIC – WACC (%) (15.7) (13.7) (9.6) (1.4) 3.9
ROIC (%) (0.1) 1.6 5.5 13.7 19.0
ROIC – WACC (%) (15.7) (13.8) (9.6) (1.4) 3.9
ROE (%) (0.2) 5.5 15.5 36.2 31.3
ROA (%) (0.1) 1.4 5.3 12.9 16.7 Projects start before PPA
* Pre exceptional, pre-goodwill and fully diluted starts allowing APL to
Revenue By Division (INR m) 2009A 2010A 2011E 2012E 2013E capture higher prices
Contracted Sale of Power 0 4,349 16,496 25,732 60,199 through spot sale of
Spot Sale of Power - - 9,012 57,421 72,923 power
Sources: Adani Power; BNP Paribas estimates

4 BNP PARIBAS
GIRISH NAIR ADANI POWER 9 SEPTEMBER 2010

Adani Power
Cash Flow (INR m)
Year Ending Mar 2009A 2010A 2011E 2012E 2013E
Recurring net profit (28) 2,237 9,907 30,470 36,902
Depreciation 0 374 1,565 5,816 10,804
Associates & minorities 0 0 0 1,864 2,994
Other non-cash items 0 0 0 0 0
Recurring cash flow (28) 2,610 11,472 38,149 50,700
Change in working capital 0 (5,608) (4,485) (9,848) (8,505)
Capex - maintenance 0 0 0 0 0
Capex – new investment (45,746) (95,862) (85,264) (32,990) (4,000)
Free cash flow to equity (45,773) (98,860) (78,278) (4,689) 38,195
Net acquisitions & disposals 0 0 0 0 0
Dividends paid 0 0 0 0 0
Non recurring cash flows 532 0 0 0 0
Net cash flow (45,241) (98,860) (78,278) (4,689) 38,195
Equity finance 9,231 34,853 1,135 487 0
Debt finance 39,785 75,732 64,709 19,903 (12,348)
Movement in cash 3,776 11,725 (12,433) 15,701 25,847
Per share (INR)
Recurring cash flow per share (0.02) 1.27 5.26 17.50 23.26
FCF to equity per share (26.38) (48.15) (35.91) (2.15) 17.52
Balance Sheet (INR m)
Year Ending Mar 2009A 2010A 2011E 2012E 2013E
Working capital assets 4,163 4,163 9,990 23,025 34,558
Working capital liabilities (5,620) (11) (1,352) (4,540) (7,567)
Net working capital (1,456) 4,152 8,638 18,485 26,990
Tangible fixed assets 69,213 164,702 248,402 275,577 268,772
Operating invested capital 67,757 168,854 257,040 294,062 295,763
Goodwill 0 0 0 0 0
Other intangible assets 97 97 97 97 97
Investments 0 0 0 0 0
Other assets 0 0 0 0 0
Invested capital 67,854 168,951 257,136 294,159 295,859
Cash & equivalents (5,585) (17,310) (4,877) (20,578) (46,425)
Short term debt 0 0 0 0 0
Long term debt * 49,897 125,629 190,338 210,241 197,893
Net debt 44,311 108,318 185,461 189,663 151,468
Deferred tax 0 0 0 0 0
Other liabilities 0 0 0 0 0
Total equity 22,839 59,010 68,918 99,387 136,290
Minority interests 703 1,622 2,758 5,108 8,102
Invested capital 67,854 168,951 257,136 294,159 295,859
* includes convertibles and preferred stock which is being treated as debt
Per share (INR)
Book value per share 12.40 27.07 31.61 45.59 62.52
Tangible book value per share 12.35 27.02 31.57 45.55 62.47
Financial strength
Net debt/equity (%) 188.2 178.6 258.8 181.5 104.9
Net debt/total assets (%) 56.0 58.2 70.4 59.4 43.3
Current ratio (x) 1.7 1,902.0 11.0 9.6 10.7
CF interest cover (x) - - 4.0 5.3 3.1
Valuation 2009A 2010A 2011E 2012E 2013E
Recurring P/E (x) * neg 128.9 30.9 10.0 8.3
Recurring P/E @ target price (x) * neg 146.9 35.2 11.4 9.5
Reported P/E (x) neg 128.9 30.9 10.0 8.3
Dividend yield (%) 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
P/CF (x) (8,783.6) 110.5 26.7 8.0 6.0
P/FCF (x) (5.3) (2.9) (3.9) (65.3) 8.0
Price/book (x) 11.3 5.2 4.4 3.1 2.2
Price/tangible book (x) 11.4 5.2 4.4 3.1 2.2
EV/EBITDA (x) ** (7,017.1) 147.1 28.7 9.4 6.0
EV/EBITDA @ target price (x) ** (7,860.4) 163.2 31.4 10.2 6.5
EV/invested capital (x) 4.5 2.5 1.9 1.7 1.6
* Pre exceptional, pre-goodwill and fully diluted
** EBITDA includes associate income and recurring non-operating income
Sources: Adani Power; BNP Paribas estimates

5 BNP PARIBAS
GIRISH NAIR ADANI POWER 9 SEPTEMBER 2010

HISTORY OF CHANGE IN INVESTMENT RATING AND/OR TARGET PRICE

Adani Power (ADANI IN)


(INR) Date Reco TP
Adani Power Target Price
27-Feb-10 BUY 135.00
170.00
160.00
150.00
140.00
130.00
120.00
110.00
100.00
90.00
80.00
Aug-09 Oct-09 Dec-09 Feb-10 Apr-10 Jun-10 Aug-10
Girish Nair started covering this stock from 1 March 2010
Price and TP are in local currency
Valuation and risks: Key risks to our DCF-based TP are execution delays, higher-than-expected coal costs, lower utilization and lower-than-expected merchant tariffs
Sources: Bloomberg, BNP Paribas

6 BNP PARIBAS
GIRISH NAIR ADANI POWER 9 SEPTEMBER 2010

DISCLAIMERS & DISCLOSURES

ANALYST(S)
Girish Nair, BNP Paribas Securities India Pvt Ltd, +91 22 6628 2449, girish.nair@asia.bnpparibas.com.
This report was produced by a member company of the BNP Paribas Group (“Group”)1. This report is for the use of intended recipients only and
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Recommendation structure
All share prices are as at market close on 8 September 2010 unless otherwise stated. Stock recommendations are based on absolute upside
(downside), which we define as (target price* - current price) / current price. If the upside is 10% or more, the recommendation is BUY. If the
downside is 10% or more, the recommendation is REDUCE. For stocks where the upside or downside is less than 10%, the recommendation is
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and are limited to at most five key buys and five key sells in each market at any point in time.
Unless otherwise specified, these recommendations are set with a 12-month horizon. Thus, it is possible that future price volatility may cause a
temporary mismatch between upside/downside for a stock based on market price and the formal recommendation.
*In most cases, the target price will equal the analyst's assessment of the current fair value of the stock. However, if the analyst doesn't think the market
will reassess the stock over the specified time horizon due to a lack of events or catalysts, then the target price may differ from fair value. In most cases,
therefore, our recommendation is an assessment of the mismatch between current market price and our assessment of current fair value.
Rating distribution (as at 8 September 2010)
Out of 478 rated stocks in the BNP Paribas coverage universe, 299 have BUY ratings, 130 are rated HOLD and 49 are rated REDUCE. Within
these rating categories, 3.34% of the BUY-rated companies either currently are or have been BNP Paribas clients in the past 12 months, 4.62% of
the HOLD-rated companies are or have been clients in the past 12 months, and 10.20% of the REDUCE-rated companies are or have been clients
in the past 12 months.

Should you require additional information please contact the relevant BNP Paribas research team or the author(s) of this report.
© 2010 BNP Paribas Group

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