Analysis of Earthquake Hazard

in Papua New Guinea

Lawrence Anton
Port Moresby Geophysical Observatory

Outline
ƒ Introduction
ƒ Tectonics
ƒ Seismology
ƒ Earthquake hazard
ƒ Discussions
ƒ Concluding remarks
ƒ Recommendations

•Top right: aerial view of CBD Port Moresby,

National Capital
•Bottom: National Parliament
The aims of the study are to
ƒ evaluate (and map) earthquake hazard in PNG at
different scales, utilizing data and improved methods
now available

ƒ focusing on specific sites of population density and

sites of important national industrial activity

ƒ provide the basis for a much-needed revision of the

PNG Earthquake Loading (Building) Code

ƒ update results in previous studies

Global tectonic plate configuration & kinematics

Regional tectonics and related elements

PNG region is situated

Within the collision zone of the India – Australia, Pacific and
Eurasian Plates
ƒ Left-lateral shearing across New Guinea resulting from highly oblique
collision (Gochioco et al., 2002)
¾ world’s fastest continental shear zone (75-80 mm/yr), relative to northern
Australia (McCaffrey, 1996)
¾ but accounts for only minimum release of seismic moment in the region
ƒ Ontong Java Plateau dominating the Pacific Plate front
¾ thick massive oceanic crust
¾ caused break up of Melanesian Arc and reversal of subduction polarity
ƒ Convergence is accommodated by thrusts and strikeslip faulting along
frontal Highlands thrust belt; involved in mountain building (crustal
shortening/thickening) spanning the central axis of New Guinea Island
¾ the central collisional belt; 300 km wide, 1300 km long & peaks of over 3
km
ƒ Existence of minor plates within the collision zone (Wallace et al.,
2004; this study)
¾ Many more being recognised/confirmed; eg. North Bismarck, New Guinea
Highlands and Woodlark, amongst many others
TECTONICS
Two mountain ranges dominate the region:
ƒ Terrains of the Melanesian arc – subjected to oblique
collision in early Pliocene; still involved in active
subduction in the Solomon Islands
ƒ Highlands (Irian Jaya Fold Belt & Papuan Fold Belt) –
formed by two tectonic events
¾ Obduction of Papuan Ophiolites during Oligocene
resulting in metamorphism of continental margin
sediments
¾ Continental-arc collision during Pliocene causing intra-
continental deformation

Tectonic structure of New Guinea (Abers and McCaffrey, 1988; Abers, 1994)
Geological provinces of New Guinea (Davies, 1990)

Geological provinces of SW Pacific region (Audrey-Charles, 1991)

Free-air gravity anomalies of OJP and New Guinea (Mann and Taira, 2004)

GPS data from Tregoning et al. (1998)

Tectonic plates configuration of PNG (Ripper and Letz, 1991; 1993; PMGO)

Seismicity of PNG based on PMGO earthquake catalogue

SEISMOLOGY
ƒ Earthquake activity is a manifestation of and
delineate
¾ Plate boundaries – all possible types
9 Subduction zones, continental and oceanic convergence
9 Seafloor spreading centres and continental rifting
9 Continental and oceanic transcurrent faulting
¾ Zones of crustal deformation, e.g. due to convergence
¾ Crustal fracture zones
¾ Volcanic centres
ƒ Significant earthquakes are frequent, including six
having significant tectonic effects; 1907, 1935, 1941,
1993, 2000, 2002, 2007
¾ There may have been numerous others

Seismicity of the PNG region based on ISC earthquake catalogue

– showing regional earthquake distribution

¾Red circles denote shallow events (0-34 km)

¾Yellow diamonds and blue triangles denote intermediate depth events (35-299 km)
¾Green stars denote deep events (>300 km)
Significant earthquakes of PNG
Great Earthquakes (Pacheco and Sykes, 1992; Engdahl et al., 1998 and ISC)
Year Date Time Lat Long Depth Ms Moment Mw
hr:min °S °E Km 1020Nm .
1906 14 Sep 16:04 7.00 149.00 S 7.4 12.70 8.0
1935 20 Sep 01:46 3.50 141.75 S 7.9 14.50 8.0
1971 14 Jul 06:11 5.50 153.90 53 7.8 12.00 8.0
1971 26 Jul 01:23 4.90 153.20 48 7.7 18.00 8.1
2000 16 Nov 04:54 3.98 152.17 33 8.2 12.40 8.0
2007 01 April 20:39 8.466 157.043 24 7.9 8.1

Significant earthquakes with tectonic effects (PMGO)

Year Date Place Mw Effect .
1907 15 Dec North coast New Guinea 7.3 subsidence
1935 20 Sept Torricelli Mtn/N New Guinea 8.0 uplift
1941 13 Jan New Britain 7.0 horizontal displacement
1970 31 Oct Adelbert Range 7.0 Slumping - tsunami
1993 25 Oct Eastern New Guinea 7.1 vertical displacement
1998 17 Jul Northern New Guinea 7.1 submarine slumping -
tsunami
2000 16 Nov Southern New Ireland 8.0 5.5m horizontal
displacement
2002 08 Sept North coast New Guinea 7.8 30-40cm uplift – tsunami
2007 01 April New Georgia Group, SI 8.1 1 metre uplift

Coastal uplift during Eq of 1 April 07

Earthquake activity ¾ Active plate interaction
¾ Indicative of rapidly
evolving of Plate
ƒ Amongst the most intense in boundaries
the world ¾ Inter-slab and intra-slab

ƒ Frequent magnitude 7 and activity

¾ Diverse earthquake
above earthquakes wave propagation path
¾about 2 per year ¾ Poor local seismograph
coverage
ƒ High stress release; 9So most earthquakes
¾Low stress accumulation are located using
global seismograph
ƒ However, locations are poor; data
¾poor seismic network coverage 9Locations and

¾Earthquakes smaller than

depths include very
large errors
magnitude 4 not located ¾ Future great eqs are
¾Locations have huge errors imminent & of concern

Seismic instrumentation
ƒ Proper monitoring started in the 1962 by USGS
ƒ Local networks of soft and strong motion began about the
same time;
¾ but have currently ceased due to lack of funding commitment
ƒ Replacement networks an urgent need;
¾ For public information and early warning
9 tsunami warning including
¾ For hazards mitigation and awareness – risk management
¾ For proper hazard assessment – for engineering use
¾ For proper identification of source zones as a result of improved
location and magnitude determinations
¾ To improve earthquake catalogs which will benefit local and
regional seismicity and tectonic studies; including hazard
studies
EARTHQUAKE HAZARD
„ After an understanding of the regional seismicity and
tectonics having gained, the second stage for an earthquake
hazard study is largely concerned with calculation of ground
motion recurrence,
¾ representing the hazard due to shaking by seismic waves.
¾ other earthquake hazards such as liquefaction, surface rupture,
landslides, and tsunami, are treated separately.
„ Two main models required to compute ground motion
recurrence are a seismotectonic model that specifies the
assumed distribution of earthquake magnitude recurrence of
earthquakes, and a ground motion model that specifies the
expected ground motion from the earthquakes.

Available data
ƒ Compiled using databases established based on ISC, USGS,
and sourced from many workers; of
¾ Hypocentres – this study
¾ Intensities – future
¾ Strong motion – future component of the project
ƒ Seismicity maps are now possible; therefore,
¾ Identification of seismic source zones made easier
ƒ Hazard mapping was attempted in previous years
¾ Proper data and methods not available then
ƒ Revise existing seismic hazard maps – building code seismic
zone
 PNG Earthquake Loading Code

¾ The current PNG Earthquake

(Building) Code does not reflect
current knowledge of the
tectonic structure of PNG
¾ When the review is completed,
proper legislation is called for to
include the revisions.
¾ Rapid national growth requires
urgent legislation to ensure
compliance by town planners
and engineers.

ƒ The Code was developed in the 1970s using data from abroad, as PNG didn’t have
the data then.
ƒ PNG Statutory Instrument No.44 of 1971 (1971), Regulations made under the
“Building Ordinance 1971”, documented by Papua New Guinea Government
Printer, November, 1971 (plus Amendments).
ƒ First revised in 1982 and documented by PNG National Standards Council (1983),
Code of practice for general structural design and design loadings for buildings,
Part 4, Earthquake loadings.
¾ Revisions were not taken onboard

Method
ƒ The hazard is represented by uniform probability response
spectra computed using the 4-staged Cornell method
1. Develop seismotectonic map
2. Quantification of seismicity
3. Determine attenuation function
4. Earthquake hazard, and hazard mapping
ƒ Based on the comprehensive PNG earthquake catalogue
¾ The seismotectonic model was developed,
¾ and ground motion recurrence for selected sites computed
ƒ After several iterations of the model, earthquake hazard maps
are produced
1. Develop seismotectonic map
ƒ Divided the region in to seismotectonic zones based
on:
¾ Existing earthquake catalogue;
9 the reformat of which is based on ISC, PMGO, USGS
databases
¾ Checked against regional geology, and geophysics,
9 especially gravity and magnetics,
9 Quaternary faults, topographic and geographic features

ƒ There must be prior knowledge of the tectonics

¾ Models used influence hazard assessments

Tectonics
Collision zone

Seismotectonics – uniform
earthquake distribution

Six layers of the model – PNG1

A total of 120 source zones
PNG region is classed as low to moderate resolution; Australia as low
2. Quantification of seismicity
ƒ For each source zone (as well as faults – future
work)
¾ Based on available data – distribution patterns
9 defining activity in zones, including sources at depth
ƒ Determine per zone:
¾ Rate of recurrence of earthquakes varying with
magnitude (magnitude recurrence)
¾ Relative proportion of small to large earthquakes (b-
value)
¾ Maximum earthquake magnitude (Maximum Credible
Earthquake); tectonic settings considered too!

Example of source zone

quantification: New Britain Arc
ƒA typical source zone, the New Britain Arc, is presented as an
example of quantification of a source zone
ƒThe earthquakes within the zone were extracted from the
catalogue (using the MapInfo GIS system)
ƒThe catalogue had previously been declustered
¾independent mainshocks distinguished from dependent foreshocks
and aftershocks
¾the declustered listing was used for earthquake magnitude
recurrence estimates
Figure shows magnitude-time plot for earthquakes in the New Britain Arc zone, and
the catalogue completeness is estimated (considering seismograph coverage, and
linearity of the earthquake magnitude recurrence plot) and represented by the blue
line. The plot shows magnitude against time for the known declustered earthquakes,
with dependent foreshocks and aftershocks removed.

„ The earthquake magnitude recurrence plot for the New Britain Arc. This is a plot of
Nx, the number of earthquakes per year equal to or larger than magnitude x, against
magnitude x. Nx values indicating the number of earthquakes in entire source region
per year.
„ An alternative measure of earthquake activity is Ax, which is the number of
earthquakes per year per 100 x 100 km. The Nx values depend on source region
size so can't be compared (large zones have more earthquakes than small zones),
but Ax values can be compared between zones.
„ The gradient of this plot gives the b-value (a measure of the proportion of small to
large earthquakes) for the zone, which in this case is a very high value of 1.386.
 Table lists earthquake magnitude recurrence for the New Britain Arc
zone.
These estimate of earthquake magnitude recurrence for the New
Britain Arc zone of model PNG1 used the earthquake catalogue to
2008-09-30. The zone covers 65,730 km2. The gradient is represented
by beta = 3.19, which corresponds to b-value = 1.39.
Events/year Events/year Ret Period Ret Period

Whole zone /100x100km /100x100km (yr) for zone (years)

No = 7952015.4 Ao = 1209800 0.00 0.000

N1 = 326796 A1 = 49718 0.00 0.000

N2 = 13430 A2 = 2043.21 0.00 0.000

N3 = 551.921 A3 = 83.968 0.01 0.002

N4 = 22.6818 A4 = 3.45075 0.29 0.044

N5 = 0.932132 A5 = 0.141812 7.05 1.073

N6 = 0.0383069 A6 = 0.00582792 171.59 26.105

N7 = 0.00157426 A7 = 0.0002395 4175.30 635.219

This process was repeated for every source zone for the seismotectonic model PNG1.
At this stage the model PNG1 has a total of 120 zones in six depth ranges.

3. Determine attenuation function

ƒ Gives earthquake ground motion as a function of magnitude,
distance and other parameters
ƒ No one attenuation relationship is possible for the entire
region due to:
¾ Complex geology – resulting in varying seismic energy
propagation path
¾ Numerous crustal tectonic blocks
¾ Diverse tectonic structure
¾ Terrains and hilly topography
ƒ As local data is not sufficient, relationship of similar tectonic
environments was used
¾ Atkinson and Boore (2003) – for subduction zones
¾ Chiou and Youngs (2008) – for crustal, intra-plate zones
ƒ Attenuation relationships to be developed in next stage of the
project – future work
4. Earthquake hazard
ƒ Computed spectral ground motion recurrence
(SGMR), integrating probabilities of motion from all
earthquakes in space, magnitude and freq of motion
¾using commercial software EZ-FRISK (McGuire, 1993)
ƒ Computed SGMR at specific sites/points depending
on complexity of seismotectonic and attenuation
models; on bedrock – as strong motion data lacking
ƒ After several iterations of the model, earthquake
hazard maps will be produced
¾ Repeating the process at many points on a grid
covering the region, for better resolution
¾ Sites of Port Moresby, Lae, Kokopo, Kimbe, Buka,
Madang, Wewak and Honiara have been attempted

1. Port Moresby Source zone contributions for Port Moresby ground motion.
This plot gives contributions for peak ground acceleration.
PGA
recurrence
for Port
Moresby.
This is for
bedrock
motion,
considering
magnitudes
5.0 and
higher.

Figure shows that the high-frequency peak ground acceleration at Port Moresby is dominated
by hazard contributions from shallow or crustal seismic zones using the attenuation of Chiou-
Youngs (2008), but higher accelerations may be originating from the intra-slab zones, using the
attenuation function of Atkinson-Boore (2003).

Figure shows
the uniform
probability
response
spectra at Port
Moresby for
return periods
of 475 years,
3,000 years
and 10,000
years, for
bedrock, and
using
magnitudes
from 5.0.

The peak ground acceleration is numerically equal to the response spectral acceleration
at near zero period, for all the left-most points on each of the plots. The spectra for other
return periods can be found by re-calculation, or approximated by interpolation.
Figure shows the deaggregation plot for
1.0 second period motion at a return
period of 975 years for Port Moresby
(corresponding to a relatively low
amplitude of 0.07 g spectral
acceleration).

It shows three main source of hazard,

including moderate magnitude nearby
events, larger events at distances of 200
to 500 km, and some contribution from
great earthquakes at distances of 500
km and beyond (cumulatively plotted at
500 km).

Magnitude 6 earthquakes near Port

Moresby occur infrequently, while the
maximum credible magnitude of 7.3
has been determined, with a near-zero
recurrence rate.

2. Kokopo

Figure shows
source zone
contributions
for Kokopo
ground motion.
This plot gives
contributions
for motion with
spectral
acceleration at
a period of 1.0
seconds.

Zones contributing most to the hazard are those closest to Kokopo and the most
active are the zones of the New Britain Arc and New Britain Trench. These zones
consequently contribute highest to the total hazard, or otherwise is spread amongst
many other zones.
 Note that for the
total motion at
the site, the
Atkinson-Boore
attenuation
functions for
subduction
events are each
weighted by 0.5,
while the plot
shows the ground
motion
recurrence for
full weighting for
each.

Figure shows the strength of seismic zones of the subduction zone in the total hazard
using the attenuation function by Atkinson and Boore (2003), especially in the lower
and upper PGA. There was a reasonable contribution from zones non-subducting
lithosphere using the attenuation function by Chiou and Youngs (2008), especially at
the mid-range PGAs.

Figure shows
the response
spectra for
Kokopo.
These
uniform
probability
response
spectra are
for bedrock,
using
magnitudes
from 5.0.

Figure shows response curves for 475, 3,000 and 10,000 year return periods. Spectra for
other return periods can be derived from re-calculation, or approximated by
interpolation.
 Figure shows the
deaggregation for all source
zones within 500 km, with
associated hazard
parameters. Two parts are
shown to contribute
earthquakes, from very
local distance (0-25 km)
and that from distance up to
150 km. No seismic zones
is observed to contribute
hazard at Kokopo from
farther distances, even in
adjoining subduction zones
are observed.
Maximum magnitude
earthquake in Kokopo is 7.6
and maximum acceleration
of 0.5g

Figure magnitude-distance deaggregation for motion at Kokopo. Results for bedrock

motion of period 1.0 seconds, considering magnitudes 5.0 and higher.

3. Lae

Figure shows source zone contributions for Lae ground motion. This plot gives contributions for
peak ground acceleration. It shows that the source contributions in Lae are dominated by the Huon
seismotectonic zone within which the city is located, and the neighbouring Schrader and Adelbert
zones, as well as Huon Peninsula at depth.
Figure shows
PGA recurrence
for Lae.
Results for
bedrock motion
and peak
ground
acceleration,
considering
magnitudes 5.0
and higher.

Figure shows that the high-frequency peak ground acceleration at Lae is totally
dominated by contributions from nearby local earthquakes, determined using the
Atkinson-Boore (2003) attenuation function.

Figure shows
response
spectra for
Lae. These
uniform
probability
response
spectra are for
bedrock,
using
magnitudes
from 5.0.

The peak ground acceleration is numerically equal to the response spectral acceleration at near
zero period, for all the left most points on each of the plots.
The uniform probability response spectra for return periods of 475 years, 3000 years and
10,000 years are shown in the Figure. Spectra for other return periods can be found by re-
calculation.
For Lae, the
deaggregation plot
of 1.0 second for a
return period of
975 years shows
that most of the
contributing
earthquakes are
originating locally,
but the situation
extends gradually
and tapers off to a
distance of about
210 km.

Maximum
acceleration of
0.35g and MCE of
7.1, at a mean
distance of 71 km

Outcomes
ƒ The earthquake source zones are quantified using
historical and recent seismicity data, and checked
against geology, geophysics and geodesy (GPS
deformation) during the current tectonic regime
ƒ Attenuation functions that were derived using data
from comparable tectonic environments were
selected
¾No check for consistency with the few existing
PNG strong motion data, and isoseismal data
¾A component of the next stage of the study
ƒ Ground motion recurrence computations were then
performed for selected locations
PGAs for 475 yr Return Period
Sites PGA Max Cred Eq Mean dist (km)
Port Moresby 0.07 7.3 254
Lae* 0.35 7.1 71
Kokopo 0.50 7.6 60

Madang 0.28 7.4 66

Wewak 0.24 6.9 41

Kimbe 0.32 7.6 83

Buka 0.36 7.7 91

Honiara 0.31 7.5 64

CONCLUDING REMARKS
ƒ PNG a geologically, seismically and geographically
complex region
¾Tectonicstructure (debated) redefined and updated
continuously
ƒ Data and methods for earthquake hazard determination
are now available; could have better data
ƒ It was determined that earthquake hazard is significant
ƒ As local strong motion data is not sufficient, that of similar
tectonic setting could have been used – data required to
determine attenuation function
ƒ There is a need for modern seismic equipment
¾Replace the almost non-existing local network
¾Monitoring, parameter determination and hazard
assessment
¾Build earthquake catalog for future hazard updates
Expected outcomes – in the near
future
ƒ Following completion of the earthquake catalogue,
computation of earthquake hazard was undertaken for
representative locations within two years, and is anticipated
that these will lead to revise hazard maps in the following
two years
ƒ This work will lead to the development of a set of modern
earthquake hazard maps of the PNG region and the
determination of earthquake response spectra at other
selected sites
ƒ The earthquake hazard maps and response spectra would
form the basis for a revision of the PNG Earthquake
(Building) Code

RECOMMENDATIONS
Things proposed to be achieved for the purpose of realising in
full the value of the study. These include:
(1) Determine earthquake hazard at other additional sites, to
improve the resolution and therefore better hazard mapping
(2) Improve on the seismotectonic model developed and hazard
maps covering the whole geographic region
(3) Immediate use of the hazard maps to facilitate the
replacement of the existing earthquake building code
(4) Replace seismic station network to improve data acquisition
required which will in turn improve earthquake hazard
analysis, and be able to sustain maintenance of the network
(5) To improved hazard analysis; delineate active faults
(6) Develop plans for the future updates of the hazard map
(7) Acquire EZ-FRISK or similar tools for immediate use, and for
future earthquake hazard updates
FUTURE WORK
Will include:
ƒ Determination of PNG earthquakes (epicenters,
depths, magnitudes and mechanisms) using a local
seismograph network to reduce the uncertainty and
current scatter in epicentre and depth estimates;
¾ and hence allow delineation of active faults.
ƒ Update and increase resolution of the
seismotectonic model, particularly further re-
iteration of the analysis process to include more
sites, and by computing the hazard contributions by
specific active faults rather than assuming uniform
area source zones.

THANKS…