ENGLISH ACTIVITY No.

7 SIMULATION PRONÓSTICA EN INGLES

LAURA VANESSA RUBIANO QUINTERO

HIMBLER ANDRES ORTIZ VASQUEZ
CARLOS ANDRES POLO NARANJO
YENCY ALEJANDRA RUBIANO QUINTERO

INSTRUCTORA
SUZY ROXANA FERREIRA AVENDAÑO

TECNOLOGÍA EN GESTIÓN LOGÍSTICA

SERVICIO NACIONAL DE APRENDIZAJE “SENA”

BUCARAMANGA - COLOMBIA
 2017

ENGLISH ACTIVITY No. 7 SIMULATION PRONÓSTICA EN INGLES

LAURA VANESSA RUBIANO QUINTERO

HIMBLER ANDRES ORTIZ VASQUEZ
CARLOS ANDRES POLO NARANJO
YENCY ALEJANDRA RUBIANO QUINTERO

INSTRUCTORA
SUZY ROXANA FERREIRA AVENDAÑO

TECNOLOGÍA EN GESTIÓN LOGÍSTICA

SERVICIO NACIONAL DE APRENDIZAJE “SENA”

BUCARAMANGA - COLOMBIA
 2017

ENGLISH ACTIVITY No. 7 SIMULATION PRONÓSTICA EN INGLES

A. NAME OF THE COMPANY: ORIZA DAIRY

B. MAIN BUSINESS AREA: DAIRY PRODUCTS COMPANY

C. SEVEN STEPS TO MAKE A FORECASTING SYSTEM:

1. USES: our company uses forecasting techniques, for the amount of

Services to be dispatched and to comply with the demand

2. ITEMS: Calculating Service requests every month

3. TIME HORIZON: In our company, we use a short-term forecast that is

usually done up to three months

4. MODEL: The forecast used for the simple moving average

5. DATA GATHERING: Historical data from previous months are used to

forecast future sales
6. MAKING: According to forecasts. the Services are prepared for the future

7. VALIDATION AND IMPLEMENTATION: Historical data are real and

verified by the company that is why forecasts are very effective
ACCORDING TO THE OFFICES OF OUR SERVICES THE PREVIOUS
YEAR (2016), MAKING THE OUTLOOK FOR 2017. IN YOGURTS

MESES 2016 2017

January 6231 6570
February 6390 6620
Manch 6475 6793
April 6523 7130
May 6742 7780
June 6920 7810
July 7755 8856
August 7850 8890
September 7930 9000
October 8233 9230
November 8524 9336
December 8724 9935

Valué weighted 100%

Data previous 25%
Data means 35%
Data recent 55%
 Amount of yogurt
2016 2017 0

12000
10000 9935
8856 8890 9000 9230 9336
8233 8524 8724
8000 7780 7810 7755 7850 7930
6620 6793 7130 6742 6920
6000 6570
6231 6390 6475 6523

4000
2000
0
Januar Februa Septe Octob Nove Decem
Manch April May June July August
y ry mber er mber ber
2016 6231 6390 6475 6523 6742 6920 7755 7850 7930 8233 8524 8724
2017 6570 6620 6793 7130 7780 7810 8856 8890 9000 9230 9336 9935
0