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Rahma Rei Sakura, S.T., M.T.


NIP. 153112

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AGGREGATE
PLANNING

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Process planning
Long
range
Strategic capacity planning

Intermediate Forecasting
range & demand Sales and operations (aggregate) planning
management
Sales plan Aggregate operations plan
Manufacturing
Services
Master scheduling

Material requirements planning

Weekly workforce and


Order scheduling customer scheduling
Short
range
Daily workforce and customer scheduling
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Introduction

Warehouse

Food Mart

Aggregate Planning Retailer


Factory

End
Consumer
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Contoh :
Sebuah perusahaan menjual beberapa kelompok produk dibeberapa wilayah
yang berbeda, maka ramalan bisa dibuat secara agregat untuk semua
kelompok produk dan semua wilayah, atau untuk setiap kelompok produk,
setiap wilayah, atau bahkan pada level yang lebih detail yaitu pada level
individu produk.

Agregasi juga dapat dibuat berdasarkan waktu, sehingga angka ramalan


dapat dibuat untuk periode harian, mingguan, bulanan, atau tahunan.

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Tujuan utama dari aggregate planning yaitu untuk menentukan
kombinasi dari production rate, work-force level, dan inventory on hand.

• Production Rate  jumlah unit yang diproduksi untuk setiap periode


tertentu.
• Work-force level  jumlah pekerja yang dibutuhkan untuk setiap
produksi pada periode tertentu. (production = production rate x
workforce level).
• Inventory on hand  jumlah persediaan yang tidak digunakan dari
periode sebelumnya.

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Introduction
 Definisi  the aggregate planning consists of determining how feasible
production alternatives must be employed in each period to satisfy expected
demand at minimum total production cost. (Kostas N. Dervitsiotis, 1981)

 Suatu pernyataan tingkat produksi yang direncanakan dalam bentuk aggregate yang
mengintegrasikan antara operasi manufaktur dengan rencana marketing dan bisnis.
 Melibatkan pemilihan strategi manufaktur.
 Input utama untuk Resource Planning.
 Menstabilkan produksi dan tenaga kerja apabila pola demand bervariasi.
 Dinyatakan dalam bentuk famili atau group produk, bukan specific model.

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Introduction

 Ukuran unit pada setiap perusahaan berbeda-beda (ton, gallon, cases, yards,
kubik atau berdasarkan input yang digunakan dalam produksi seperti man hours
atau machine hours).
Note : digunakan untuk faktor konversi agar perencanaan produksi dapat secara
langsung dikaitkan dengan rencana marketing dan bisnis
 Untuk produk dimana unit dalam family relatif homogen dapat dinyatakan dalam
unit produk (cost dollars).
 Format tidak standard.

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Production Plan
(Make To Order)

PRODUCTION PLAN
Product Family : Pumps Date Issued : 12/30/xx
Unit of Measure : Dollars at cost

MONTH JAN FEB MAR APR MAY …


WORKING DAYS PAST DUE 22 21 22 21 23 …
Forecast 568,724 473,681 381,942 624,000 660,000 …
Order Backing 175,423 568,724 473,681 381,942 426,835 328,720 …
Production Plan 623,075 594,753 381,942 624,000 660,000 …
Planned Daily Rate 28,322 28,322 17,361 29,714 28,696 …
Shipping Forecast 623,075 594,753 381,942 624,000 660,000 …

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Production Plan
(Make To Stock)

PRODUCTION PLAN
Product Family : Valves Date Issued : 6/1/xx
Unit of Measure : Each

MONTH JUNE JULY AUG SEPT OCT …


WORKING DAYS PAST DUE 21 22 23 20 23 …
Forecast 2,460 2,500 2,700 3,000 2,500 …
Production Plan 2,603 2,726 2,852 2,480 2,500 …
Planned Daily Rate 124 124 124 124 109 …
Shipping Forecast 2,460 2,500 2,700 3,000 2,500 …
Planned Ending Inventory 1,240 1,383 1,611 1,763 1,243 1,243

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Strategi Aggregate Planning

1. Capacity options
 Mengubah-ubah tingkat inventory (level inventory)
 Mengubah-ubah ukuran tenaga kerja: hiring / lay off (chase
strategy)
 Mengubah-ubah production rate: over time / under time
 Menggunakan part time workers

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Strategi Aggregate Planning

2. Demand options
 Mempengaruhi demand  advertising (periklanan), promosi, personal
selling, discount, diskriminasi harga
 Backordering

3. Pure strategies
 Bila yang diubah-ubah hanya satu variabel

4. Mixed Options
 Melibatkan pengubahan beberapa variabel, misalnya bila pure strategy
tidak feasible

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Fase-fase Aggregate Planning
Periodically Phase 2 Phase 3
Smooth out capacity Determine feasible
utilization production alternative

Phase 1 Regularly Phase 4


Forecast aggregate Allocate demand to
demand production periods

Time series with Complementary Fixed work force Linear costs


seasonals products - Overtime
- Undertime
Trial and Error
Moving averages Pricing Variable work force
- Hiring Linear Programming
- Layoffs - Transportation
Exponential - Simplex
Promotion
smoothing
Inventory
Nonlinear Costs
Flexibility delivery
Others
times Backordering
Linear decision rule

Subcontracting
Others

Heuristic and search models


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Fase-fase Aggregate Planning

 Phase I : Preparation of an Aggregate Demand Forecast


 Forecast dalam satuan unit yang sama untuk semua jenis item produk

 Phase II : Specification of Organization Policies for Smoothing Capacity


Utilization
 Membuat policy untuk merealisasikan perencanaan agregat yang telah
diramalkan sebelumnya untuk mengantisipasi unstationary demand
dengan melibatkan marketing dan produksi
 Contoh: diskon, promosi, dll

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Fase-fase Aggregate Planning

 Phase III : Determination of Feasible Production Alternatives


 Changing the production rate with the same work force
 Changing production rate by changing the size of work force
 Absorbing demand through inventories
 Absorbing demand by backordering
 Absorbing demand by subcontracting

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Fase-fase Aggregate Planning

 Phase IV : Determination of Optional Production Strategy


 Menentukan strategi yang optimal dengan alokasi demand forecast dengan
alternatif-alternatif produksi yang meminimumkan biaya total selama
horizon perencanaan

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Aggregate Plan – Managerial Inputs

Operations Distribution and marketing


Current machine capacities Customer needs
Plans for future capacities Demand forecasts
Workforce capacities Competition behavior
Current staffing level

Materials
Supplier capabilities Aggregate
Storage capacity plan
Materials availability

Engineering Human resources


New products Labor-market conditions
Product design changes Training capacity
Machine standards
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Aggregate Plan – Outputs

Aggressive Alternatives
Complementary Competitive
Products Pricing

Reactive Alternatives
Size of Units or dollars
Workforce and Aggregate of Backlogs,
Workforce Adjustment plan backorders, or
stockout

Inventory
Levels Production Units or
per month dollars
(in units or $) subcontracted
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Controllable (Decision) Variable
 Inventory
 Production rate
 Manpower
 Capacity : overtime / recruitment / layoff (tenaga kerja /
workforce)
 Subcontract

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Relevant Cost
 Hiring/layoff cost
 Overtime/undertime cost
 Inventory carrying cost
 Subcontracting incremental cost
 Part time labor cost
 Backorder cost

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Aggregate Planing Objectives

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Total Cost

Production cost Cost of regular Cost of units overtime


 
in period t production production
Cost of unit used Cost of Cost of
  
from inventory backordering hiring
Cost of Cost of
 
firing subcontracting

TC  C1  C2   Ct

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Total Cost
Production Demand Allocation Unit Total
alternative forecast amount, units costs costs

Subcontracting 80 $12 $960

Internal capacity
Inventory 200* $1 $400

D5=700
Overtime 120 $8 $960
production

Regular 300 $5 $1,500


production
Total Cost at period 5 $3,820

4 5 6

* The 200 units form inventory were produce in period 3

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Methods
 Trial and Error (Charting/Graphical Methods)
 Pure strategy
 Mixed strategy
 Mathematical (Optimal) Approach
 Linear Programming Model
 Transportation Model
 Empirical Approach
 Simulation
 Berdasarkan asumsi hubungan biaya yang digunakan, metode aggregate planning
dapat dibedakan menjadi:
1. Linear cost relationships (Metode LDR)
2. Non-linear cost relationships (Metode Bowman)

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Klasifikasi Metode Aggregate Planning

Aggregate Cost relationships


planning
method Linear Nonlinear
A. Trial and error: C. Heuristic models and
Not yielding ▪ Using table Computer search
optimal plan models
▪ Using graph
B. Linear programming D. Linear decision rule
Yielding optimal ▪ Transportation Dynamic programming
plan method
▪ Simplex method

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Sistem Aggregate Planning
Allocate demand
to production
Constraints Decision periods using
Capacity limits for feasible
production alternatives alternatives

Input Output

Period-by-period Production rate


demand forecasts
Feasible production Aggregate Work-force size
alternatives Planning
Cost data on item 2 Desired inventory

Initial condition Amount of


subcontracting

Performance criteria
(Minimize total production cost)
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Trial and Error

 Contoh :
 Diketahui demand selama 8 kuartal ke depan (hasil ramalan)
 Ongkos kenaikan tingkat produksi : $ 100
 Ongkos penurunan tingkat produksi : $ 150
 Ongkos inventory : $ 50
 Incremental cost for subcontracting : $ 80

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Trial and Error
Forecast demand per Kuartal

Kuartal Demand Kumulatif Demand per kuartal


1 220 220

Kuantitas demand
2 170 390 800
3 400 790 600

4 600 1390 400

5 380 1770 200


0
6 200 1970
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8
7 130 2100
Kuartal
8 300 2400

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Trial and Error
Level Strategy (2)

Business Cycle
Production
Units

1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13
Time Periods
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Trial and Error
Level Strategy (1)

Production Adjusted Ongkos


Kuartal Demand Inventory
Level Inventory*) inventory
1 220 300 80 350 17.500
2 170 300 210 480 24.000
3 400 300 110 380 19.000
4 600 300 -190 80 4.000
5 380 300 -270 0 0
6 200 300 -170 100 5.000
7 130 300 0 270 13.500
8 300 300 0 270 13.500
Total 96.500

*) Initial inventory: 270


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Trial and Error
Chase Strategy (3)

Business Cycle
Production
Units

1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13
Time Periods
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Trial and Error
Chase Strategy (3)

Kuartal Demand Hiring Layoff Total


1 220 0 0 0
2 170 0 7.500 7.500
3 400 23.000 0 23.000
4 600 20.000 0 20.000
5 380 0 33.000 33.000
6 200 0 27.000 27.000
7 130 0 10.500 10.500
8 300 17.000 0 17.000
Total 138.000
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Trial and Error
Subcontract Strategy

Production Incremental
Kuartal Demand Subcontract
level cost
1 220 130 90 7,200
2 170 130 40 3,200
3 400 130 270 21,600
4 600 130 470 37,600
5 380 130 250 20,000
6 200 130 70 5,600
7 130 130 0 0
8 300 130 170 13,600
Total 108,800
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Aggregate Planning
Strategy - Hybrid

Business Cycle
Production
Units

rate break

1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13
Time Periods
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AGGREGATE PLANNING STRATEGIES

Chase Strategy – using capacity as the


lever

Time flexibility from workforce or


capacity strategy – using utilization as
the lever

Level Strategy – using inventory as the


lever

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CHASE STRATEGY

▪ The production rate is synchronized with the demand rate by varying machine capacity or
hiring and lying off employees as the demand rate varies.

▪ This strategy can be expensive to implement if the cost of varying machine or labor capacity
over time is high.

▪ The Chase Strategy results in low levels of inventory in the supply chain and high levels of
change in capacity and workforce.

▪ It should be used when the cost of carrying inventory is very high and costs to change
levels of machine and labor capacity are low.

Chase Strategy  Merubah Kapasitas

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Time Flexibility from Workforce or
Capacity Strategy

▪ This strategy may be used if there is excees machine capacity. For example, machine are not
used 24 hours a day, 7 days a week.

▪ In this case, the workforce (capacity) is kept stable but the number of hours worked is varied
over time in an effort to synchronize produck with demand.

▪ This strategy result in low levels of inventory but with lower average machine capacity is
relatively inexpensive.

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LEVEL STRATEGY

▪ A stable machine capacity and workforce are maintained with a constant output rate.

▪ Shortages and surpluses result in inventory levels fluctuating over time.

▪ In this case, production is not synchronized with demand.

▪ Employees benefit from stable working conditions.

▪ A drawback associated with this strategy is that large inventories may accumulate and customer
orders may be delayed.

▪ This strategy keeps capacity and costs of changing capacity relatively low.

▪ It should be used when inventory carrying and backlog costs are relatively low.

Level Strategy  Kapasitas Tetap, Produksi Konstan

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MAIN OBJECTIVE

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MAIN OBJECTIVE
a. Production Rate : jumlah unit yang dapat diselesaikan setiap unit waktu
tertentu. (misal, setiap minggu atau setiap bulan).
b. Workforce : jumlah dari pekerja setiap unit dari kapasitas yang
dibutuhkan untuk melakukan produksi.
c. Overtime : jumlah dari waktu lembur perencanaan produksi.
d. Machine Capacity Level : jumlah unit dari kapasitas mesin yang dibutuhkan
untuk produksi.
e. Subcontracting : kebutuhan kapasitas yang disubkontrakkan pada satu
perencanaan waktu tertentu.
f. Backlog : permintaan yang tidak dipenuhi, yang muncul pada
periode tertentu tetapi akan dipenuhi pada periode yang akan datang.
g. Backorder : permintaan yang tidak terpenuhi, tetapi pelanggan
masih mau menunggu untuk memproduksi barang tersebut.

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MAIN OBJECTIVE

h. Safety Stock : jumlah produk yang diproduksi pada satu periode tertentu
dan digunakan ketika jumlah permintaan lebih besar dari jumlah unit produksi.
i. Inventory : persediaan (stok) dari suatu item atau sumber daya yang
digunakan dalam suatu perusahan.
j. Inventory on Hand : jumlah persediaan yang tidak digunakan dari periode
sebelumnya.
k. Shortage / Stock out : jumlah demand > jumlah supply.

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LEARNING OBJECTIVES

1. Identify the decisions that are best solved by aggregate


planning. (capacity, production, and inventory)

2. Understand the importance of aggregate planning as a


supply chain activity. (customers and supplier)

3. Describe the information needed to produce an


aggregate plan. (cost and production information)

4. Explain the basic trade-offs to consider when creating an


aggregate plan. (cost of capacity, inventory, stockout)

5. Formulate and solve aggregate planning problems using


Microsoft Excel.

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ADA PERTANYAAN ?

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