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RNI No.

MAHENG/2009/28962 | Volume 9 Issue 10 | 16th - 31st O c t ’17


M umbai | Pages 52 | For Pr ivate Circulation

Diwali Delights

Five hand-picked companies to add


sparkle to your investment portfolio
Financial
Decisions
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Disclaimer : Insurance is a subject matter of solicitation .mutual fund Investments are subject to market risk. ‘investment in securities/ Commodities market are subject to market risks, read all
the related documents carefully before investing’ Nirmal bang securities pvt.ltd. Please read the Do’s and Don’ts prescribed by Commodity Exchange Before trading. The PMS Service is not
offering for commodity Segment *Nirmal bang Commodities Pvt ltd #Distributors. “The securities quoted are exemplary and are not recommendatory”
MCX SEBI No INZ000043630,

w w w. n ir malbang.com
DB Corner – Page 5

Diwali Delights
Five hand-picked companies to add sparkle to your investment portfolio
– Page 6
Far From True
Contrary to popular belief, the Indian economy is not as bad as it is being
made to believe – Page 11
High Spirits
IPOs of many companies have attracted reasonably good valuations due
to ample liquidity in the markets – Page 14
A Change Of Track
The government’s plans to develop metro rail projects across India
indicates the growth opportunities that lay in the construction sector
– Page 16
Just As Good, If Not Better
Though investors are cautious and are focusing on quality deals, experts
believe that the future of private equity investment looks good – Page 19
Volume 9 Issue: 10, 16th - 31st Oct ’17 India’s Global Appeal
Structural economic reforms and policies are primary reasons for the
growth of India’s textile exports – Page 22
Editor-in-Chief & Publisher: Rakesh Bhandari A New Benchmark
Editor: Tushita Nigam
An RBI study group has recommended a switchover to an external
Senior Sub-Editor: Kiran V Uchil
benchmark in a time-bound manner to solve the monetary transmission
Art Director: Sachin Kamble issue – Page 25
Junior Designer: Orianne Fernandes A Game Changer
FMCG firms and retailers are seeing a clear recovery post the
Operations: Namrata Sabbani implementation of GST – Page 28
Timely Insights
Research Team: Sunil Jain, Runjhun Jain,
Akansha Jain, Vikas Salunkhe, Swati Hotkar, The Uday Kotak Committee’s recommendations on corporate governance
Nirav Chheda have come at the right time – Page 31

Printed and published by Mr Rakesh Bhandari Reinventing To Stay Relevant


on behalf of Nirmal Bang Financial Services Pvt Although the Indian insurance market is facing challenging times, it is
Ltd, printed at Uchitha Graphic Printers Pvt Ltd
65, Ideal Ind. Estate, Senapati Bapat Marg,
poised for strong growth – Page 34
Lower Parel, Mumbai – 400013 and published
at Nirmal Bang Financial Services Pvt Ltd, 19, Buckfast Recommendations – Page 38
Sonawala Building, 25 Bank Street, Fort,
Mumbai-400001. Editor: Tushita Nigam Technical Outlook – Page 42

Smart Investment Plan


CORPORATE OFFICE
SIPs are the secret to long-term wealth creation and should, therefore, be
B-2, 301/302, Marathon Innova,
Off Ganpatrao Kadam Marg, considered by investors – Page 43
Lower Parel (W), Mumbai - 400 013 To Each His Own
Tel: 022 - 3926 8000/8001
For some investors, Scuttlebutt technique is the perfect way to invest in
the markets, and for others it is Cigarbutt – Page 46
Web: www.nirmalbang.com
beyondmarket@nirmalbang.com
Tel No: 022 - 3926 8047
Important Jargon – Page 49

Beyond Market 16th - 31st Oct ’17 It’s simplified... 3


Festive Picks
S
Tushita Nigam
Editor
eason’s greetings to all the readers of Beyond Market. This Diwali, add sparkle to your
investment portfolio by considering the five stocks suggested by the Equity Research Team at
Nirmal Bang.

The research team believes that while the Indian stock markets have been on an upswing,
individual stocks have been skewed. Some companies are overvalued and some are yet to reach
their true value. Hence, the team has narrowed down on five such companies and elaborated each
one of them in the cover story of the current edition.

Apart from the special article on stock picks, other topics in this issue are the current state of the
Indian economy, which is not performing as bad as people are making it out to be, the cautious
and focused approach adopted by private equity (PE) players while investing in India, the
upswing in the number of initial public offerings (IPOs) with good valuations that are likely to
come up in the Indian stock markets, the details of the recommendations made by the RBI study
group for a switchover to an external benchmark as well as to solve the issue of monetary
transmission, and the suggestions made by the Uday Kotak Committee on corporate governance.

Also featured in this issue are articles on the growth of Indian textile exports, growth
opportunities in the construction sector due to metro rail projects and recovery in fast moving
consumer goods (FMCG) post the implementation of GST.

The Beyond Leaning section features two very interesting articles. One article dwells on the
basics and importance of systematic investment plans (SIPs), the other talks about two different
investment techniques – Scuttlebutt and Cigarbutt. Read on to know more.

The Beyond Market Team wishes you all a very Happy Diwali and a Prosperous New YeaR!

4 Beyond Market 16th - 31st Oct ’17 It’s simplified...


The Indian
stock markets
look good in the
coming fortnight.

T
he International Monetary Fund (IMF) upgraded its global economic growth forecast for 2017 by
0.1% to 3.6% in its latest World Economic Outlook. The growth rate for 2018 now stands at
3.7%.

The US Federal Reserve recently announced that it was rolling back quantitative easing (QE). Timelines
have also been drawn to achieve this feat. This programme was introduced nine years back in the wake of
the financial meltdown, hoping that increased money supply would boost the economy.

The Reserve Bank of India’s (RBI’s) Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) kept the repurchase or repo rate
unchanged at 6% at its monetary policy meet earlier this month. The move was necessitated due to upside
risks to inflation. It further said decline in interest rates would be difficult in the future.

India Inc results have started on a positive note and are likely to show an uptrend in comparison with Q1
earnings results.

The Indian stock markets look good in the coming fortnight. The Nifty has support at the 10,110 level. The
expected target for the Nifty on the upper side is at the 10,600 level.

In the coming fortnight, market participants are advised to look out for the remaining corporate results as
the markets are likely to be driven by them as well as outlook by company managements for the second half
of the financial yeaR.

Sensex: 32,609.16 Disclaimer


Nifty: 10,234.45 It is safe to assume that my clients and I may have an investment interest in the stocks/sectors
discussed. Investors are required to take an independent decision before investing. Investment in
(As on 17th Oct ’17) equity is subject to market risk. Our research should not be considered as an advertisement or
advice, professional or otherwise. The investor is requested to take into consideration all the risk
factors including their financial condition, suitability to risk return profile and the like and take
professional advice before investing.

Beyond Market 16th - 31st Oct ’17 It’s simplified... 5


Five hand-picked companies
to add sparkle to your
investment portfolio

Diwali Delights

6 Beyond Market 16th - 31st Oct ’17 It’s simplified...


T
he Indian stock markets 27.75% in Q1FY18. With an increase going forward. So, as debt is believed
have been on an upswing in Internet penetration, the company’s to have peaked out, the company will
since some time now. new media segment is expected to start repaying debt.
While some companies grow at a CAGR of 39% from FY17
are overvalued and continue to rise, to FY19E. The company is likely to do a PAT of
others have been skewed and are yet `88 crore and an EPS of `32.4 in
to join the bandwagon. Being a high-margin business, higher FY19E. At the current market price,
growth in this segment will not only the share is trading at an EV/EBITDA
The Research Team at Nirmal Bang improve the overall margin of the of 7.6x and PE of 12.4x FY19E EPS.
has hand-picked five companies that business, but will also improve free
are currently underperforming but cash flow generation. S Chand And Company Ltd
have a huge potential to outperform.
These will delight you this Diwali by With 3,585 titles, 948 perpetual rights
adding the much-desired sparkle to and 2,637 aggregate rights as on
your investment portfolio. FY17, Shemaroo, has the largest
content base in Bollywood, which S Chand and Company Ltd was
Shemaroo Entertainment Ltd makes it vital for a broadcaster to established over 70 years ago and
purchase contents from Shemaroo in operates as an education content
order to run a meaningful Bollywood company in India. The company
content service. delivers content, solutions and
services across education lifecycle
Incorporated in the year 1962, Going ahead, the company’s sales is through its K-12, higher education
Shemaroo Entertainment Ltd, a expected to grow by 11.2% in FY18E and early learning segments.
content aggregator, is an established and 11.8% in FY19E. Reselling of
film entertainment “content house” in historically acquired perpetual In K-12 business segment, the
the country. inventory and aggregate rights of over company largely provides content to
10 years, which are completely CBSE and ICSE-affiliated schools.
The content library at Shemaroo amortized, will lead to higher profits Having a seasonal business, nearly
consists of more than 3,500 titles for the company. 75% of the company’s revenue comes
spanning Hindi films and other in Q4 of the financial year.
regional languages like Marathi, Apart from this, increased Internet
Gujarati, etc, as well as non-film penetration and the company’s new Himanshu Gupta has been associated
content such as devotional, animation media segment are likely to gain with the company since 2000, and on
and spiritual, among others. traction, going ahead. Operating 1st Jul ’07, he became the Managing
margins of the company are likely to Director of the company. Since
Since the past few years, the company improve by 186 bps in FY18E and FY12-17, the company has grown at a
has been incurring a huge capex on 150 bps in FY19E and inch to 31.8% CAGR of 31.6% to `684.1 crore in
buying titles of movies. From 2013 to and 33.3%, respectively. FY17 from `173 crore in FY12.
2017, its number of titles has grown at
a CAGR of 6.2%, and inventory has With 3,585 titles on books, the major In spite of being a 70-year-old
increased at a CAGR of 36%. capex phase of the company seems to company, major growth was visible in
have gotten over and will likely slow the last 5 years, organically and
As per management guidance of down in the coming years. inorganically, indicating that the
FY18, closing inventory is likely to management is quite aggressive in
be lower than FY17 inventory, Higher profits with low capex will bringing growth to the company.
indicating that the investment phase generate a positive FCFF, which is
is getting over. Higher profits, aided believed to come in at `52.5 crore in Looking at the growth potential of the
by lower capex will lead to a positive FY19E from a negative of `81.1 crore K-12 market, S Chand is
FCFF of the company. in FY17. continuously acquiring different
brands to fill gaps in the portfolio
Shemaroo’s New Media Segment, Owing to higher operating profits, with respect to individual subject
which was contributing around 8.1% Shemaroo is likely to acquire new strengths, which, in turn, will increase
of FY12 revenue has contributed content mostly from internal accruals, the bag share of a K-12 student and

Beyond Market 16th - 31st Oct ’17 It’s simplified... 7


lead to growth of the company. indigenous, leading coding and years, it has nurtured relationships
marking solutions player in an with its client, which has benefitted
From FY12 to FY17, the K-12 oligopolistic industry, dominated by from repeat and referral businesses.
business has grown at a CAGR of global players, with ~18% domestic
45.5%. In FY11, S Chand’s three market share. The Indian coding New product launches, coupled with
most important subjects were English industry is estimated to be around a marketing push, is expected to
Grammar, Mathematics and Science. `10,000 to `11,000 million as of benefit overall growth for Control
FY17, and is currently growing at a Print, going ahead. New product
By acquiring Madhubun and Vikas CAGR of ~12% to 15%. launches would help the company to
brands in FY13, and Saraswati brand increase its installations, thus
in FY15, the company has reinforced It manufactures industrial printers at benefitting revenues from
knowledge products in its K-12 its two manufacturing facilities consumables as well as servicing.
business in Hindi and French located at Nalagarh (HP) and
language titles, languages, arts and Guwahati. It manufactures printers More and more companies are opting
crafts titles, respectively. for printing variable information and for coding and marking solutions
thereafter also sells their mainly from regulatory and efficiency
Currently, the company acquired consumables, preventive and point of view. Moreover, GST
Chayya and IPP brands, which cover breakdown services, filters, spare implementation is likely to provide a
various subjects including Bengali, parts, etc. fillip to this segment as more and
Chemistry, English, Physics, History, more unorganized players convert to
Mathematics and Geography. Other CPL caters to varied industries the organized segment by
than this, S Chand currently caters to including personal care, food & implementing coding and marking for
around 40,000 institutions and plans beverages, pharmaceuticals, their products.
to add 3,500 schools every year. construction materials, chemicals and
petrochemicals, among others. Currently, the industry is suffering
Going ahead, the management from about 15% to 20% sales of
expects a growth of 14% to 15% CPL has three revenue streams, spurious consumables, which is
year-on-year (YoY) in FY18E and namely revenue from sale/ job work/ hurting the organized players. To
FY19E, organically. S Chand is also lease of printers, revenue from counter this issue, Control Print has
looking for inorganic growth, mainly consumables such as inkjet fluids, started supplying RFID tagged
in western and southern India. ribbons, ink rolls, and revenue from printers and consumables.
annual maintenance contracts.
The company’s margins are expected Also, in a price-sensitive country like
to remain stable mainly due to the Sale of printers earns low margins, India, people prefer lower
impact of GST on authors. ROCE but it is quintessential to capture high denomination packing of goods (price
stands at around 7% in FY17, which margin, repeat consumables, spares, points like `5, `10, etc) which
is low on account of goodwill, and services business. While printer provides a boost to the packaging and
acquisition, and investment in digital, sales is a one-time activity, printing industry.
which is likely to improve. consumables, spares and services is
an annuity business, which stays with CPL has been focusing on a pan India
As per the research team’s estimates, the company for a fairly long time foot print so that its service is prompt
the company’s EPS is likely to touch owing to the inelastic nature of the and service quality is better than or in
`35 in FY19E. At the current market services business. line with its global competitors.
price, S Chand And Company Ltd is
trading at an EV/EBITDA of 5.8x and Almost 70% of its sales come from The company has already invested in
a PE of 13.2x FY19E EPS. repeat customers. CPL derives over adding service engineers/sales force
75%+ revenues from high margin and training. And it is now expected
Control Print Ltd segment, which boasts gross margins to leverage on its investments. This is
of over 80%. believed to be margin accretive for
the company.
CPL has a wider customer base
without any concentration towards a At the current market price, the stock
Control Print Ltd (CPL) is an company or a sector. Over the past 25 is trading at 15.6x FY19E earnings.

8 Beyond Market 16th - 31st Oct ’17 It’s simplified...


Minda Corporation Ltd financial year 2020. Rane (Madras) Ltd

The new die casting facility of Minda


Corporation Ltd is expected to be
operational in FY18, and annual sales
Incorporated in 1985, Minda from this plant is expected to be Rane (Madras) Ltd (RML) is part of
Corporation Ltd (MCL or the around `200 crore by FY20. the `44 billion Rane Group, which
company) is a flagship company of was established in year 1960. RML is
Spark Minda (Ashok Minda) Group. In Mexico, Minda KTSN inaugurated into auto ancillary products and
It has a major presence in the auto a new plant for plastic interiors in operates under two divisions 1)
ancillary industry. April ’17. Expected annual sales from steering gear (SGP) steering and
this facility is to the tune of `175 suspension linkage products (SSLP)
The company operates in three crore by FY20. and 2) die casting product.
divisions, namely, (i) safety, security
and restraint system, (ii) driver Minda Corporation has taken various The steering division manufactures
information and telematics system initiatives to keep the technology of manual steering, hydrostatic steering
and (iii) interiors system. its products up to the mark and has system and steering and suspension
always stayed ahead of the learning linkage products. RML holds 39%
Minda Corporation Ltd is one of curve. The new R&D facility in Pune and 72% market share in India in SGP
India’s leading manufacturers of will help the company’s existing and SSLP, respectively.
security systems, wiring harnesses, businesses to innovate advanced
couplers and terminals, instrument technology in automotive The die casting division manufactures
clusters, sensors, die casting, sub-systems. low porosity, high-quality aluminium
interiors, keys and key duplicating die-casting such as steering housing,
machines, that caters to all major In addition to this, the sensor engine case covers, etc.
two-, three-, four-wheeler and business, going ahead, is expected to
off-road vehicle manufacturers in expand going by the number of The company acquired a loss-making
India and overseas. sensors that will increase per vehicle casting business in the US last year.
once BS-VI norms become effective. The US company had a revenue of
Minda Furukawa joint venture This will substantially add to the around `205 crore and a negative
contributed 15% of consolidated company’s revenue. EBITDA margin of 2.5% in FY17.
revenue and had reported a revenue of The business has already turned
`496 crore in FY17. The company’s EBITDA margins are EBITDA positive in FY18, and is
expected to improve from 6.7% in expected to be PAT positive in FY19.
The company reported a net loss of FY17 to 10.5% in FY19E, mainly
`55 crore in FY17, largely driven by the successful turnaround Though the revenue growth will be
attributable to non-profitable contract on Minda Furukawa JV. limited to single digits, the company
with one of its customers, an increase is working on reducing the cost and
in raw material prices, and other As major capital expenditure related wastage to improve its margins.
operating costs. to its expansion is almost over and
new facilities are geared up to The company has introduced its own
The company, along with its JV contribute to the overall revenue, all developed power steering for the
partner, has set up a task force to this will generate higher free cash tractor market. Apart from the
make MCL profitable by increasing flow for the company. company, there are only two MNCs,
operational efficiencies and making it which supply power steering for
sustainable over the long run. The At the current market price, Minda tractors in the Indian market. The
management is confident of turning it Corporation Ltd is trading at a P/E of company’s product has been
around in FY18. 23.2/17.3x on FY18E/FY19E approved by customers and has seen
earnings, respectively. good growth in sales recently.
Minda Corporation Ltd has set up
another die casting plant, which will The company’s stock looks attractive The die casting division in India is
take the total capacity from 4,600 MT at current valuations given the future operating at lower capacity utilization
per annum to 9,600 MT per annum by dynamics of the business. and as such has lower operating

Beyond Market 16th - 31st Oct ’17 It’s simplified... 9


margin. Sales of die-casting is The company had done a capex of company at the price of `547 to
expected to improve gradually, `300 crore in the last four years, reduce its debt. RML’s debt is
leading to improvement in margins. resulting in increase in debt from expected to come down by `125 crore
`103 crore in FY13 to `284 crore in over the next two years.
Steering gear and steering and FY17. This has resulted in high
suspension linkage products are depreciation and interest. RML is likely to do sales of `1,345
seeing good demand from passenger crore and `1,525 crore, EBITDA of
car MHCV/ LCV and tractor Going forward, the investment will be `125 crore and `159 crore and a PAT
segments and have been growing limited and the company will be able of `28 crore and `54 crore in FY18
ahead of the industry. The to utilize its existing assets rather and FY19, respectively. Higher
contribution of sales for passenger efficiently and will be able to reduce growth in PAT is on account of the
cars in total sales has increased from debt with free cash flow generation. decline in interest costs. At the current
28% in FY15 to 36% in FY17 and market price, the share is trading at
further to 40% in Q1FY18. It has also infused `80 crore into the 11.5 PE on FY19E EPS of `44.

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Disclaimer : Insurance is a subject matter of solicitation. Mutual fund Investments are subject to market risk. ‘Investment in securities/
Commodities market are subject to market risks, read all the related documents carefully before investing’ Nirmal Bang Securities Pvt.Ltd.
Please read the Do’s and Don’ts prescribed by Commodity Exchange before trading. The PMS Service is not offering for commodity
Segment *Nirmal Bang Commodities Pvt Ltd #Distributors. “The securities quoted are exemplary and are not recommendatory”
MCX SEBI No INZ000043630,

www.nirmalbang.com

10 Beyond Market 16th - 31st Oct ’17 It’s simplified...


Far
From
True

Contrary to popular belief, the Indian economy


is not as bad as it is being made to believe

M
arket is a strange in which things are not that bleak and believed by many? Let us view the
space. And stranger worrisome, there is also an array of other side of the story in this
space is the media. data, which could amply prove that cacophony of extreme negativity:
Today, due to access stand. So, depending upon one’s
to copious amounts of information, it outlook whether it is philosophical or A statement on the Indian economy
is quite an easy task to paint a factual, one can depict the world the by a non-Indian would help us save
particular scenario depending upon way we intend to depict. any criticism of one-sided
what one intends to project. So, if one presentation of facts. Recently, during
aims to show a bleak and negative But can one really ignore realism at a a conference call ahead of the annual
picture of the economy, an array of time when extreme pessimism is meeting of the International Monetary
data is available that would reigning high? One cannot. So, the Fund and the World Bank, Kim Jim
substantiate the particular viewpoint. moot question is is India really going Yong, President, World Bank said,
And if one wishes to show a scenario through a slowdown as is being “The recent slowdown in India’s

Beyond Market 16th - 31st Oct ’17 It’s simplified... 11


economic growth is an “aberration” were limited to big cities across the economy, underpinned by good
mainly due to temporary disruptions country. Sales at the company monsoon rain. YS Guleria, Senior
LQSUHSDUDWLRQIRUWKH*67´ increased more than 30% over the last Vice-President, Sales and Marketing
Navratri-Dussehra season. at Honda Motorcycle & Scooter India
<RQJ VDLG ³7KHUH¶V EHHQ D said sales increased more than 30% as
deceleration in the first quarter, but ‡ ,QGLD¶V ELJJHVW FDUPDNHU 0DUXWL higher capacity increased the
ZH WKLQN WKDW¶V PRVWO\ GXH WR Suzuki reported an 18% growth in availability of products of the
temporary disruptions in preparation bookings and 15% increase in automobile company.
IRU WKH *67 ZKLFK E\ WKH ZD\ LV volumes during Navratri, while
going to have a hugely positive +\XQGDL 0RWRU ,QGLD¶V VDOHV URVH ‡7KHHDUOLHVWVLJQVRIEXR\DQWIHVWLYH
impact on the economy.” 50%, making this festive season a sales this year were visible when
record of sorts for the carmaker. RS e-commerce marketplaces, led by
He added, “We think that the recent .DOVL 6HQLRU ([HFXWLYH 'LUHFWRU Flipkart and Amazon, reported their
slowdown is an aberration, which will Marketing and Sales at Maruti best-ever performance. While
correct in the coming months, and the Suzuki, said the momentum built up Flipkart doubled its overall sales,
GDP growth will stabilize during the GXULQJ 2QDP DQG *DQHVK &KDWXUWKL Amazon reported similar growth for
\HDU:H¶YHEHHQZDWFKLQJFDUHIXOO\ continued into Navratri. more than half the categories of
as Prime Minister (Narendra) Modi products on its web site.
has really worked on improving the ‡Rakesh Srivastava, Director, Sales
business environment, and so, we and Marketing at Hyundai Motor ‡ *RGUHM $SSOLDQFHV %XVLQHVV +HDG
think all of those efforts will pay off India said the company is likely to Kamal Nandi said the online buzz and
as well.” have sold more than 26,000 units strong advertising by large retailers
during Navratri, more than half of have boosted demand, even in
And to support these statements made ZKDW LW GRHV LQ D PRQWK ³7KH markets such as Kerala, where sales
by Yong, there are hard facts also. momentum is likely to continue into picked up after Onam.
Recent announcements of key Diwali. Hyundai may cross retail
companies about their sales - both sales of 50,000 units in September,” ‡ 0DUXWL 6X]XNL VDLG WKH JURZWK
expected and reported, point out that Srivastava elaborated. momentum may slow down after
all is not gloom and doom for the Diwali to 7% to 8% for the industry
Indian economy. Here are some of the ‡ Demand this year is more for due to the statistical base effect.
key announcements: IURVWIUHH UHIULJHUDWRUV LQYHUWHU $&V However, the company is likely to
and large-capacity washing machines. clock double-digit growth.
‡ 6DOHV RI FDUV WHOHYLVLRQV DQG According to industry estimates, the
refrigerators increased more than WRS IRXU ILUPV  /* 6DPVXQJ 6RQ\ ‡)OLSNDUWDQG$PD]RQ,QGLDVHHPWR
15% this Navratri and Dussehra from and Panasonic - have increased their have battled any signs of customer
last year, pointing to bumper business primary sales (to dealers) by 25% this fatigue and have had combined sales
in the run-up to Diwali and calming festive season. of about $450 million during the
concerns that the currency swap and recently-concluded second leg of
WKHJRRGVDQGVHUYLFHVWD[ *67 ZLOO ‡$MD\6HWK6DOHV+HDGDWPanasonic festive sales, according to industry
have a prolonged impact on the India recently said that strong primary H[SHUWVDQGFRPSDQ\H[HFXWLYHV7KH
consumer sentiment. demand is an indicator that Diwali momentum is expected to continue
sales will be big this year, with the till Diwali sales, with the entire
‡0DUXWL6X]XNL+\XQGDL0RWRU/* Navratri-Dussehra weekend setting festive month expected to be twice as
6RQ\ 3DQDVRQLF DQG *RGUHM the stage for a bumper season. big for e-commerce players from the
Appliances said consumers across the festive period last year.
country, including those from smaller ‡ Sony has clocked 15% growth in
towns, are buying more premium volume sales at its stores this ‡ 7HOHYLVLRQ PDNHU 7&/ &RUS¶V
products this festive season. Navratri, and is now hopeful of a 20% Regional Director (India) Praveen
increase by Diwali. Valecha said the next online sale will
‡(YHQFRQVXPHUVIURPVPDOOHUWRZQV be closer to Dhanteras-Diwali, and,
are buying high-end television sets, ‡ 7ZRZKHHOHU PDNHUV WRR DUH hence, expected to be the biggest in
VXFKDV.79VWKDWVWDUWDW`65,000, reporting strong volumes during terms of purchases for electronics
and large-screen models that hitherto Navratri on prospects of a robust rural since consumers by then get their

12 Beyond Market 16th - 31st Oct ’17 It’s simplified...


festive bonuses. expected and reported sales, it seems He said, “Restructuring-related to
that the situation is not as bad as it is demonetisation, the goods and
‡ Flipkart said the second sale that being made out to be. One of the services tax and cleaning of non-
was held from 5th October to 8th factors that one needs to keep in mind performing assets, complemented by
October saw about 35% of the Gross is what do crucial macro-economic tepid export performance, readily
Merchandise Volume (GMV) indicators reveal. explain the current slowdown in
recorded during its flagship Big quarterly growth.
Billion Day (BBD) sale and that it is As regards macroeconomic terms, the
on track to see 2.5 times growth in HFRQRP\ ORRNV VWDEOH ,QIODWLRQ DQG “Given this fact and stable
GMV from this 30-day festive period current account deficit are low, the macroeconomic environment, any
over last year’s festive month. exchange rate is stable and fiscal talk of major course correction is
consolidation is on track. premature,” mentioned Panagariya.”
‡,QGXVWU\SOD\HUVVDLGWKDWZKLOHWKH
second round of sales for e-commerce Former Vice-chairman, Niti Aayog Probably, one of the consolations for
players like Amazon and Flipkart was Arvind Panagariya in an article stated, detractors could be the fact that
much smaller than the first round, it “We have seen growth rates below ,QGLD¶V JRYHUQPHQW LV FRQVLGHULQJ D
has grown 200% from the second 7% for only two quarters. This plan to loosen its fiscal deficit target
round of sales during 2016. performance contrasts with the below to enable it to spend up to `500 billion
7% growth in six of the eight quarters ($7.7 billion) more to halt an
Given these announcements of during the last two years of UPA.” economic slowdowN.

Beyond Market 16th - 31st Oct ’17 It’s simplified... 13


HIGH
SPIRITS
IPOs of many
companies have
attracted
reasonably good
valuations due to
ample liquidity in
the markets

I
t is that time of the markets The money that came in banks had to Mutual fund distributors observe that
where everything seems to go be parked in avenues, which give close to 50% of these inflows have
up. A situation has developed reasonably better returns than fixed been parked in balanced funds. This is
where Initial Public Offerings deposits if not supernormal returns followed by 25% in equity savings
(IPOs) of companies have attracted like real estate. schemes and remaining - close to
more than reasonable valuation. 25% - in large-cap, mid-cap and
Consequently, as per the Association multi-cap schemes.
So, how has this situation developed? of Mutual Funds in India (AMFI), the
One of the key reasons as to why the total inflows in MFs in the year-to- This diversification is helping savvy
Indian stock markets are touching a date period (equity, balanced, equity investors, especially HNIs, protect the
new peak almost every month is ELSS) were `10,0325 crore. Given downside risk to their portfolios. This
consistent liquidity in mutual funds the massive inflows, the question that diversification is a marriage of best of
(MFs) post demonetisation. arises is where is this money parked? all categories in mutual funds besides

14 Beyond Market 16th - 31st Oct ’17 It’s simplified...


taking into account the tax benefits. (D Mart). The company’s share price sufficient enough to enhance the
is quoting almost 205% more than its overall cement demand to 8% to 10%
Balanced funds provide the best of IPO price. Also, AU Small Finance from 4% to 5% at present.
equity and debt, while equity savings Bank is quoting double its issue price
schemes are a mix of equity, debt and and CDSL is quoting 154% higher Ironically, with the exception of a few
arbitrage schemes. Equity savings than its issue price. sectors, earnings growth across key
schemes invest 30% to 35% of the sectors may delay. This is one of the
portfolio in equities and the One important reason why this is key reasons IPOs are seeing renewed
remaining in debt and arbitrage. This happening is lack of clarity about interest of key institutional investors.
structure provides comfort to new improvement in demand. Hence,
investors as the possibility of fall in there is confusion about improvement Besides, lack of availability of
returns of these schemes is quite low in earnings growth. companies in the listed space, which
given its diversification. are a blend of earnings growth and
Due to this, share prices of large listed attractive valuations, the very
These schemes are also favourable in companies have gone up but their business model and performance of
terms of tax. Investments held in earnings have not caught up with their new companies, which are getting
these schemes for a year have no valuations. Take for instance, cement listed, have also triggered off a huge
long-term capital gains tax. Even the sector, one of the key barometers of interest in them.
returns of these schemes (10% to whether construction activity in the
12%) have been far encouraging for economy has picked up or not. A good number of companies from
the investors. the financial sector would hit the
Going by key trends of the sector, it market with their IPOs. These are
Distributors point out that since these seems like it will take a long time for UTI Asset Management Company,
schemes have given far superior earnings to justify steep valuation of SBI Life, HDFC Standard Life, the
returns than fixed deposits, investors cement manufacturers. Large-cap General Insurance Corporation and
consider these schemes as a viable cement stocks trade at an average New India Assurance, among others.
investment option. EV/EBITDA of 21 and 16 for FY18 It is estimated that on the whole these
and FY19, respectively which is high companies would raise `30,000 crore
Now, the present rally in the market is when compared with past 10-year to `50,000 crore.
driven by this consistent and excess average of 7-10.
liquidity, which is being parked in Experts point out that the data
mutual funds. Since fund managers A key reason for this is high pertaining to the proportion of assets
have the capacity and legal eligibility likelihood of postponement in under management (AUM) and
to buy a large number of shares of a earnings’ growth at least for the next household savings in the GDP
company, these IPOs are being two to three years if one considers indicate that the flow may remain
subscribed by mutual funds. present demand growth of 4% to 5%. intact in the medium term. The total
There are several factors which point AUM of domestic mutual funds is
The recent IPOs are nothing but out why earnings’ growth of cement 12% of the GDP as compared to the
supply of new scrips. It is fairly companies may delay further. Firstly, global average of 55%.
evident in huge oversubscriptions of companies have added capacities
recent IPOs. It is estimated that most through acquisitions and organic Penetration level is even lower for
IPOs are subscribed more than 50 to expansion, which put pressure on equities. Equity AUM to GDP ratio in
100 times the amount offered. pricing across regions and limited any India is 4% compared with the global
growth in cement prices. average of 29%. Experts estimate that
Their steep listing premium shows the share of equity in total AUM may
that fund managers are willing to pay As a result, companies may resort to rise to 44% to 45% from the current
a steep price for a decent growth volume growth by slashing prices, 35% in the next five years.
story, which otherwise would receive which, in turn, would result in lower
reasonably good response in the realizations, and, hence, lower Given this, it is natural that those
markets with already listed earnings growth. Also, demand from companies with high likelihood of
companies performing well. the housing segment, which earnings’ growth or those companies
contributes nearly 60% to 65% of which are untapped stories would
For example, Avenue Supermarkets cement demand would not be attract massive liquiditY.

Beyond Market 16th - 31st Oct ’17 It’s simplified... 15


A
Change
Of Track

The government’s plans to develop


metro rail projects across India
indicates the growth opportunities that
lay in the construction sector

16 Beyond Market 16th - 31st Oct ’17 It’s simplified...


E
nvisioned to decongest These are currently under execution wherein private participation in new
road and rail traffic, the and at the planning stage. project proposals was made
metro rail projects across compulsory. Last mile connectivity
India is the need of the HUGE INVESTMENTS and urban development within a five
hour and will indeed boost the kilometre catchment area are focus
construction sector. Typically, a project in a major city areas of the new Policy.
involves expenditure of around
That the government is lining up `10,000 crore and higher. For The Policy prescribes development of
investments for metro rail projects instance, Phase I of the Delhi Metro metros as ‘Urban Transformation’
demonstrates the opportunity that lies was completed at `10,571 crore with projects rather than ‘Urban
ahead for the construction sector. 60% of the expenditure derived from Transportation’ projects. The Policy
a soft loan from the Japan Bank for requires Public Private Partnership
At present, metro projects with a total International Cooperation, now (PPP) to be a mandatory component
length of 370 km are operational in 8 known as the Japan International of proposals made by the states that
cities, namely, Delhi (217 km), Cooperation Agency (JICA). seek central assistance.
Bengaluru (42.30 km), Kolkata
(27.39 km), Chennai (27.36 km), While Phase II of Delhi Metro was The three pathways for central
Kochi (13.30 km), Mumbai (Metro completed at `18,783 crore, Phase III assistance are PPP with central
Line 1-11.40 km, Mono Rail Phase expansion has been estimated at assistance, Grant in the form of 10%
1-9.0 km), Jaipur (9.00 km) and `41,000 crore as most of it is lump sum and 50:50 equity-sharing
Gurugram (Rapid Metro - 1.60 km). underground. With the present model between the state and the
network of the Delhi Metro spanning central government.
Metro projects with a total length of about 217 km mostly of Phase I and
537 km are in progress in 13 cities Phase II and small stretches of Phase A CASCADING EFFECT
including the eight mentioned above. III, another 140 km will be added
New cities acquiring metro services when Phase III is completed. While government agencies will have
are Hyderabad (71 km), Nagpur (38 the overall responsibility such as in
km), Ahmedabad (36 km), Pune The total extent of Phase I and Phase the case of Delhi Metro developed by
(31.25 km) and Lucknow (23 km), II is around 190 km with 143 stations. Delhi Metro Rail Corporation
according to a release issued by the With costs of around `29,000 crore (DMRC), it would mean huge
Press Information Bureau (PIB). for the two phases spanning 190 km, ancillary work for engineering and
the cost per km works out to around construction companies in India.
Metro projects with a total length of `155 crore. The standard cost for a
595 km in 13 cities including 10 new Metro Rail line is `200 crore per km. DMRC has developed expertise in the
cities are at various stages of planning When the track goes underground, the construction of Metro rail lines and
and appraisal. These are Delhi Metro cost doubles to `400 crore. has envisaged the development of
Phase IV - 103.93 km, Delhi and projects in Tier II cities at 70% of the
NCR - 21.10 km, Vijayawada - 26.03 INCREASING PRIVATE cost involved in Tier-I cities. The
km, Visakhapatnam - 42.55 km, PARTICIPATION DMRC is currently for the
Bhopal - 27.87 km, Indore - 31.55 development of Kochi, Lucknow and
km, Kochi Metro Phase II - 11.20 km, Apart from the size of the Vijayawada Metro Rail projects.
Greater Chandigarh Region Metro opportunity, what is also worth noting
Project - 37.56 km, Patna-27.88 km, is that the government has OPPORTUNITY FOR
Guwahati - 61 km, Varanasi - 29.24 emphasized on private participation. DEVELOPERS
km, Thiruvananthapuram and The 2017 Metro Rail Policy states
Kozhikode (Light Rail Transport) - that all forms of Public Private Track work tenders are awarded for
35.12 km and Chennai Phase II - Partnership (PPP) will be encouraged design and construction over
107.50 km, added the release. for future projects including viaducts, tunnels, underground and in
Design-Build-Finance-Operate-Trans depots. Construction of elevated
As per industry estimates close to `2 fer (DBFOT). structures includes viaducts and
lakh crore is likely to be spent on stations while underground structures
metro projects with a standard mix of The Union Cabinet unveiled its new include tunnels, stations and their
underground and elevated sections. Metro Rail Policy in August ’17 associated tunnels.

Beyond Market 16th - 31st Oct ’17 It’s simplified... 17


The Hyderabad Metro Project is a previously been involved in a L&T had awarded the AFC contract
PPP, which is being implemented by Chennai Metro `900 crore to Samsung Data Systems India. The
Larsen & Toubro (L&T) on a Design, construction contract in a JV with AFC System for the Chennai Metro
Build, Finance, Operate and Transfer Gammon India. But they left the was awarded to Nippon Signal
basis. The company is financing 90% project mid-way over payment issues. Company for `110 crore.
of the project cost of about `14,000
crore. L&T was among the primary JMC Projects implemented a `400 COMMUNICATIONS AND
civil engineering contractors of the crore project in the Delhi Metro of SIGNALING
Kochi Metro with projects worth elevated viaduct and six stations in a
about `900 crore. JV with China Harbour Engineering Metro train projects rely heavily on
Company (CHEC). JMC has won electric systems and communication
CONSTRUCTION AND contracts in the elevated sections of devices. There will be a huge
ENGINEERING the Mumbai Metro. requirement for such equipment
suppliers. For the Hyderabad Metro
The other key segment to watch out Its previous JV partner CHEC has project, L&T awarded the signaling
for is construction where companies now entered into a JV with Tata contract to French company Thales
like Simplex, J Kumar, NCC and Projects for another contract within Group’s Portugal Unit. Bengaluru
others are already working. the Mumbai Metro Elevated Corridor. Metro’s signaling contract was
Other major player in this sector awarded to Alstom. Chennai Metro’s
J Kumar Infraprojects is a major includes Afcons, which has `600 crore signaling, platform screen
player in Maharashtra and has constructed projects worth `700 crore doors and telecom work was awarded
completed Metro Rail projects worth in Delhi Metro and ITD Cementation to Siemens India consortium.
about `200 crore in Delhi Metro. The India, which built elevated viaducts
company’s JV with China Railway and stations worth `132 crore. TRACKS AND COACHES
Tunnel Group (CRTG) has won
contracts in the Mumbai Metro ELECTRIC AND EQUIPMENT IRCON, which is the Government of
Underground project where the work India company, and operates under
is set to start this month. Beyond construction and the Ministry of Railways is the prime
development, the entire value chain in contender for the job of laying down
Also in a JV with a Chinese company the equipment business will also get a tracks. IRCON International won the
STEC, L&T is among the five boost in the process. The Chennai award for tracks for Phase III of the
contractors currently involved in the Metro’s `300 crore power supply Delhi Metro.
construction of the underground contract was awarded to Siemens
phase of the Mumbai Metro. India consortium. Other sections of the same Phase III
track contracts were implemented by
L&T had previously completed the Air-conditioning of the underground Alstom India consortium. IRCON has
`500 crore Chennai Metro project as stations, tunnel ventilation systems, also implemented `160 crore track
part of a consortium with Alstom for lifts and escalators will be among the work projects for Kochi Metro.
design, construction of track work in bid areas of requirements. Companies
viaduct, tunnel, underground, and like Voltas implemented the `200 Metros will also drive demand for the
depot in corridor I & II of the project. crore underground systems air rolling stocks and coaches and
conditioning project in the Chennai Electric Multiple Units (EMUs).
L&T had partnered with Shanghai Metro. Blue Star implemented Most of the ongoing manufacturing of
Urban Construction Group (SUCG) projects in Bengaluru and Delhi. EMUs and all future EMU production
to complete the `700 crore project in is going to be within the country.
Delhi Metro. It had implemented a Likewise automated fare collection
`380 crore viaduct stretch on its own systems (AFC), which are largely Titagarh Wagons, BEML and few
also in Delhi Metro. dominated by foreign players, will other companies in the segment that
also be required. The system that are currently engaged in refurbishing
Another company that has won civil deploys contactless card technology rolling stock are eying this segment of
construction contracts in the Mumbai to achieve 100% ticket checking was the market. BEML has already
Metro project is HCC through its JV deployed by L&T as part of its supplied rolling stocks for Delhi,
with MMS of Russia. MMS had Hyderabad Metro DBFOT project. Jaipur and Bengaluru MetroS.

18 Beyond Market 16th - 31st Oct ’17 It’s simplified...


Just As Good,
If Not Better
Though investors are cautious and are focusing on
quality deals, experts believe that the future of private
equity investments looks good

I
n contrast to the global happened, which created an be extremely beneficial, there were
economy, which was environment of confusion among some critics who saw little to no good
relatively stable, the Indian financial institutions and Private in this decision. The other major
economy experienced quite a Equity (PE) firms on treading ahead. policy change that took place was the
few ups and downs in the last one passing of Goods and Services Tax
year. India registered a growth of Opinion on the demonetisation (GST) Act.
7.6% in FY16 compared with a 6.5% exercise was widely split. While there
growth in 2015. Things were looking was a general consensus that in the The first quarter of 2017 saw a 22%
good and then demonetisation longer term, this move would prove to decline in PE investments in India.

Beyond Market 16th - 31st Oct ’17 It’s simplified... 19


PE Deals Khazanah Nasional Berhad-Apollo investments stood at US $4.2 billion
Period Number Value Hospitals deal were the key exits in 173 deals. Overall there were 155
Of Deals ($bn)
recorded for the quarter. transactions that took place with
Q1 2015 408 4.57 Mumbai, the National Capital Region
Q2 2015 414 5.94 (NCR) centered on Delhi and
The slowdown during the first quarter
Q3 2015 489 6.39
was temporary because in May ’17, Bengaluru as the top locations for
Q4 2015 476 5.08
private equity investments jumped by most PE investments.
Q1 2016 432 4.19
Q2 2016 319 2.31 nearly 64%.
Q3 2016 332 2.87 In terms of industry, according to the
Q4 2016 321 3.89 Investors pumped in $963 million report, Information Technology &
Q1 2017 238 3.04 across 67 deals and more than half of IT-enabled Services (IT & ITeS)
Source: News Corp, VCC Edge this was in the start-up and emerging sector retained the top spot this
According to India Quarterly Deals business space. This news came as a quarter, with 78 deals worth
Report for Q1 CY17 released by relief for PE investors, because there approximately US $2.7 billion.
News Corp, the number of deals fell was a looming fear that deal activity Investments in the sector rose 93%
to 238 from 432 while the deal value may slow down with fund managers year-on-year to US $2.7 billion.
fell to $3.04 billion from $4.19 billion taking a cautious approach towards
during the corresponding period last fresh funding. Sandeep Ladda, Leader, Technology
year, showing a decrease of 45% and at PwC India said, “Despite the
27%, respectively. According to Prashant Mehra, Partner slowdown in growth in the Indian
at Grant Thornton India, M&A values technology sector and in the midst of
As a result, PE investments in India recorded a marginal increase of 4% layoffs and US visa issues,
are at a five-year low. Although fund over the same period last year. While technology continued to be a major
infusions got better, investors chose the domestic deal activity recorded a investment theme in the second
to tread cautiously. Investment values nearly two-fold increase, the quarter, with IT & ITeS accounting
doubled against the last quarter to cross-border deal values fell by 49% for a large share of overall deal value
$820 million for Q1 of calendar year due to reduced inbound investor despite growth in volumes remaining
2017, though this was a fraction of the interest in them. rather flat.
$2,500 million for Q1 CY16. Global
PE fund KKR & Co Lp and Canada As far as the second quarter is “Similarly IT & ITeS was the top
Pension Plan (CPP) Investment Board concerned, according to MoneyTree sector in terms of PE exits in this
put together invested $900 million in India Report by quarter, with a total of 14 exits worth
Bharti Infratel in March, making it the PricewaterhouseCoopers (PwC), PE around US $718 million. This quarter
largest in the first quarter. investments in India declined 13% by witnessed significant developments
deal value to $6.3 billion in the around further consolidation in the
The report further adds that mergers second quarter compared with the e-tail segment along with several new
and acquisitions (M&A) saw several preceding quarter. billion-dollar funds flowing into the
large deals being inked during the technology sector.
period. The deal numbers stood at 226 However, the value of deals in this
as opposed to around 237 for the quarter has grown by 51% as “As transactions continue to move
previous quarter. compared to Q2 2016 where online, new areas such as FinTech and

Vodafone-Idea deal was the leader on Largest PE Investments in July - September 2017
charts, contributing $12.4 billion of Amount
Company Investors (US$ mn)
the total deal value of $16 billion. The
year-on-year (y-o-y) exit value has Flipkart SoftBank 2500
Paytm SoftBank 1400
fallen to $1.4 billion for Q1 CY17
Flipkart Tencent, Others 1400
from $2.1 billion for the same quarter
Bharti Infratel KKR, CPPIB 952
last year. GlobalLogic CPPIB 720
IndoSpace Core CPPIB 500
With total exit deal values at $945 ICICI Lombard General Insurance Warburg Pincus, Others 383
million, Providence Equity Tata Technologies Warburg Pincus 360
Partners-Idea Cellular deal and the Source: Venture Intelligence Report

20 Beyond Market 16th - 31st Oct ’17 It’s simplified...


the hyper local and travel segments Top PE Deals In Q2 2017
are set to benefit in the long term. As Company Industry Investor Amount
e-Commerce players strive to achieve (US$ mn)
profitability, the year could also see One97 IT & ITeS SoftBank Corp 1400
companies opting for an initial public Communications
offering (IPO) as a preferred exit IndoSpace Core Shipping & Logistics CPPIB 500
ICICI Lombard BFSI Warburg Pincus, 383
route.” Ladda further added.
General Insurance Others
Tata Technologies IT & ITeS Warburg Pincus 360
Apart from IT & ITeS, both Aegis BPO IT & ITeS Capital Square 275
manufacturing and energy sectors Partners
displayed notable growth in Source: PricewaterhouseCoopers (PwC)
nvestments compared to Q1 FY17, September ’17, which was 73% accounts for the maximum number of
closing with around US $121 million higher than that in Q3 FY16 and 5% transaction,” said Arun Natarajan,
in five deals and US $541 million in higher than the immediate previous CEO, Venture Intelligence.
six deals, respectively. quarter. Q3FY17 recorded as many as
13 investments above US $100 Japan-based investment giant
“Indian manufacturing industry is million as compared to 10 in the same SoftBank contributed 24% of the total
looking to focus on new period last year. investment value, which included
products/services, R&D, IT and $250 million in budget hotels
expanding its facilities in select Even though the number of deals in aggregator OYO, $1.4 billion in
sectors. Companies in the the first nine months of 2017 are 23% mobile wallet leader PayTm and $2.5
manufacturing space have shown lower than that in the comparable billion in e-commerce leader Flipkart.
resilience in the face of challenges period during the previous year,
and are confident about the sector’s according to Venture Intelligence Softbank has invested over $6 billion
growth prospects,” says Bimal Tanna, report, private equity firms invested in the Indian market in less than three
Partner and Leader, Industrial about $17.6 billion in Indian years alone.
Products, PwC India. companies in the first nine months of
2017, sailing past the previous high of The report further states that while
As far as investment in the $17.3 billion in 2015. SoftBank’s $2.5 billion investment in
manufacturing sector is concerned, Flipkart was the largest reported
Tanna commented in the report, The year has already recorded as during the latest quarter, the next
“While the number of PE deals in the many as 21 investments over $200 three largest investments during
manufacturing sector is limited million in size in addition to 15 Q3FY17 were accounted for by BFSI
compared to that in other sectors, we private equity deals between $100 companies - Carlyle’s $300 million
note that quite a few manufacturing million and $200 million. into SBI Cards; the $260 million
companies are open to exploring the raised by RBL Bank and the $240
PE route to further expand their Mega deals have been dominated by million buyout of investor services
business operations.” four sectors: Internet & Mobile, firm Karvy Computershare by
Infrastructure, IT Services & BPO General Atlantic.
According to a report by Venture and BFSI (Banking, Financial
Intelligence, PE firms invested about Services and Insurance). “Private Though investors are cautious and are
US $5.7 billion across 106 deals equity investments have largely flown focusing on quality deals, experts
during the third quarter ended into growth stage companies in just believe that the future of private
3-4 sectors, which are looking quite equity investment looks good. After
Private Equity Investments attractive at this point of time. This is the initial setback in investments
By Quarter
one of the reasons behind the increase earlier this year, the pace has picked
Amount Investments
($B) in deal value. up again.
Q3 2016 3.3 153
Q4 2016 4.8 197 “However, the number of deals has “India is clearly maturing as a PE
Q1 2017 6.2 163 come down largely because of lack of market with bigger and more complex
Q2 2017 5.4 133 interest shown by venture capital deals becoming more commonplace,”
Q3 2017 5.7 106 investors in early stage companies. It said Mayank Rastogi, partner at Ernst
Source: Venture Intelligence Report is generally this segment that & YounG.

Beyond Market 16th - 31st Oct ’17 It’s simplified... 21


INDIA’S GLOBAL
APPEAL
Structural
economic reforms
and policies are
primary reasons
for the growth of
India’s textile
exports

22 Beyond Market 16th - 31st Oct ’17 It’s simplified...


I
ndia’s textile companies are hand-spun-and-woven segment, on 4)The government announced a slew
leaving their footprints on the the other hand are capital-intensive of labour-friendly reforms aimed at
global arena as is evident from mills. But a large part of India’s generating around 11.1 million jobs in
the rising exports of textiles textile industry comprises of apparel and made-up sectors, and
and garments. decentralised power looms, hosiery increasing textile exports to US $32.8
and knitting units. billion and investment of `80,630
This is not a mean feat considering crore (US $12.09 billion) in the next
the fact that the share of India’s Asian In addition to this, the textile industry three years.
peers in their exports to the US - one is connected to agriculture as cotton is
of the key export destinations - has one of the essential raw materials for As a result of these initiatives and
been declining in terms of realization production. It is estimated that the other business advantages, India’s
per unit. size of India’s textile industry is textile sector has witnessed a spurt in
around US $120 billion, and is investment in the past five years. The
Let us find out how the journey has expected to reach US $230 billion by industry (including dyed and printed)
been for India’s textiles industry. the year 2020. attracted Foreign Direct Investment
(FDI) worth US $2.47 billion from
THE BASICS GOVERNMENT INITIATIVES April ’00 to March ’17.

India’s textile industry is one of the One of the key reasons for the rise in INDIA’S EXPORTS
oldest and can be traced back to per unit realization in exports to the
centuries. It is estimated that the US despite the fall in exports of its Owing to these revivalistic policies,
textile sector contributes close to 15% Asian peers is due to the India’s exports of locally made retail
to India’s total exports. Besides, it is government’s policies on exports, and lifestyle products grew at a
one of those sectors that provides including a number of export compound annual growth rate
sizeable employment. promotion policies aimed at the (CAGR) of 10% from 2013 to 2016,
textile sector. mainly led by bedding, bath and home
The textile sector employs about 51 decor products, and textiles. The
million people directly, and 68 Most importantly, it has allowed government has set a target of US $45
million people indirectly. India’s 100% FDI in the Indian textile sector billion for 2017-18 for textile and
overall textile exports during under the automatic route. garment sector exports.
FY15-16 stood at US $40 billion. The
industry contributes approximately A few key initiatives announced in In the past three-and-a-half years
4% to India’s Gross Domestic the Union Budget 2017-18 to boost (calendar), even as countries like
Product (GDP) and 14% to overall the textiles sector are as under: China, Bangladesh and Vietnam have
Index of Industrial Production (IIP). been recording a decline in their per
1) Encourage new entrepreneurs to unit realization of apparel exports to
The textile and garment sector can be invest in sectors such as knitwear by the United States, India has been
divided into two broad segments – the increasing allocation of funds to successfully able to maintain the per
unorganized sector and the organized Mudra Bank from `1,36,000 crore unit realization.
sector. The unorganized sector (US $20.4 billion) to `2,44,000 crore
consists of handloom, handicrafts and (US $36.6 billion). According to data released by the
sericulture, which are operated on a Office of Textiles and Apparel
small scale and through traditional 2) Upgrade labour skills by allocating (OTEXA), US, the average
tools and methods. `2,200 crore (US $330 million). realization per unit of apparels
exported by India to the US has been
The organized sector mainly consists 3) Memorandum of Understanding in the range of $3.4 to $3.5 for the
of spinning, apparel and garments, (MoU) with 20 e-commerce past three-and-a-half years.
which use modern machinery and companies, aimed at providing a
employ techniques such as economies platform to artisans and weavers from In comparison with this, in the same
of scale. India in different handloom and period, the average realization per
handicraft clusters across the country unit of apparels exported by China
A review of the textile industry shows for selling their products directly to and Bangladesh fell to $2.3 and $2.6
that while on one hand there is a the consumer. from $2.7 and $3, respectively.

Beyond Market 16th - 31st Oct ’17 It’s simplified... 23


There are three fundamentals reasons Though rising exports are a healthy investments of $11 billion and
why India has been able to maintain sign for India’s textiles companies, a generating $30 billion in exports.
its average realization per unit in its lot needs to be done to make them and
apparel exports to the US. the sector highly and consistently The minister informed that funds to
profitable. It would be a great help for the tune of over `1,900 crore had
First, unlike its Asian peers, Indian textile companies if domestic been given to the apparel industry
apparel manufacturers have not been consumption also provided strong under the rebate of state levies to
slashing prices for their products that business along with export demand. boost exports from the sector. This
are sold to buyers in the US. Due to The future for the Indian textile provides high hope for the industry.
high labour costs in China, Chinese industry looks promising.
apparel manufacturers have been Recently, the government exempted
slashing prices to get more business With consumerism and disposable export promotion schemes such as
from buyers in the US. incomes on the rise, the retail sector Advance Authorization Scheme and
has experienced rapid growth in the Export Promotion Capital Goods
Due to this, their average realization past decade with the entry of several Scheme (EPCG) from payment of
per unit has come down. Second, international players like Marks & Goods and Services Tax (GST) till
industry veterans point out that there Spencer, Guess and Next into the 31st March next year. This is
is an increasing trend wherein man- Indian market. expected to enhance investments in
made garments are exported to the US the textile sector, say experts.
more than cotton-based garments. The apparel market in India is
estimated to grow at a compound According to estimates, 40% of
Man-made garments such as winter annual growth rate (CAGR) of 11.8% India’s textile exports are by
wear and other specialized garments to reach US $180 billion by 2025. merchant exporters. By providing the
fetch higher value than cotton-based facility that they need to pay a
garments. Lastly, experts point out The Indian cotton textile industry is nominal amount of 0.1% as GST
that more and more Indian apparel expected to showcase stable growth while claiming goods from
manufacturers are complying with the in FY17-18, supported by steady manufacturers for exports will ensure
norms set by buyers in the US. input prices, healthy capacity that there is no cash flow problem.
utilization and steady demand from
Compliances in terms of quality of domestic buyers. But we need more such initiatives
products and legalities have increased taking into account the business
the cost of production for India-based The government in June ’16 had dynamics domestically, and global
apparel-manufacturers. And buyers in approved a `6,006 crore special competitiveness in comparison with
the US are willing to pay a higher package for textile and apparel sector players outside India. Only then,
value to such compliant companies to create one crore new jobs in the India’s textile companies would
based in India. next three years, attracting achieve peak of earnings’ cyclE.

Catch-up Effect

In any period, the economies of countries that start off poor generally grow faster than the economies of countries that start
off rich. As a result, the national income of poor countries usually catches up with the national income of rich countries.
New technology may even allow developing countries to leap-frog over industrialized countries with older technology.
This, at least, is the traditional economic theory. In recent years, there has been considerable debate about the extent and
speed of convergence in reality.

One reason to expect catch-up is that workers in poor countries have little access to capital, so their productivity is often
low. Increasing the amount of capital at their disposal by only a small amount can produce huge gains in productivity.
Countries with lots of capital, and as a result higher levels of productivity, would enjoy a much smaller gain from a similar
increase in capital. This is one possible explanation for the much faster growth of Japan and Germany, compared with the
US and the UK, after the Second World War and the faster growth of several Asian ‘tigers’, compared with developed
countries, during the 1980s and most of the 1990s.

24 Beyond Market 16th - 31st Oct ’17 It’s simplified...


T
he Reserve Bank of India bank. Findings and suggestions of the below the base rate.
(RBI) and commercial study group are far-reaching.
banks are at loggerheads Ever since deregulation of interest
over monetary policy Out of the many recommendations, rates in 1994, the RBI has
transmission. Banks are slower in the study group wants banks to set experimented with many credit
passing benefits to customers even interest rates based on an external pricing methodologies: prime lending
when the RBI obliges with a rate cut. benchmark and not as per internal rate (PLR), benchmark prime lending
Surprisingly, banks are comparatively benchmarks as is the practice now. rate (BPLR), base rate and finally
quicker in increasing lending rates MCLR rate. Successive benchmarks
when the RBI shifts towards a tighter INTERNAL BENCHMARKS corrected the short comings of the
monetary policy. previous one.
The present loan pricing regime is
Clearly transmission of RBI’s benchmarked on the marginal cost of The latest and current regime is the
monetary policy, which involves funds-based lending rate (MCLR). MCLR, which was introduced in
management of money supply and The previous regime of base rate still April ’16. It is based on banks’
interest rates in the system, is exists for some loans. Both are increment cost of funds. So if the
currently inadequate. The issue in a calculated based on banks’ internal future cost of deposit came cheaper
way ridicules RBI’s monetary policy factors such as cost of funds and due to RBI’s loose policy, lending
and undermines the integrity of the maturity of deposits. rates would come down. If the future
interest rate process in the economy. cost of deposits were dearer, lending
For beginners, any lending rate of rates would go up. But the internal
An internal group of RBI, formed in banks has two components: study group of the RBI has found that
August to study the monetary benchmark rate (base rate or MCLR MCLR-based lending has some
transmission issue, recently rate) and the spread (bank’s margin). shortcomings, preventing desired
submitted its report to the central As per regulation, banks cannot lend monetary transmission.

An RBI study group has recommended a switchover to


an external benchmark in a time-bound manner to
solve the monetary transmission issue

A NEW BENCHMARK

Beyond Market 16th - 31st Oct ’17 It’s simplified... 25


Change In MCLR V/s Base Rate V/s Policy Rate
Base Rate Base Rate Change In Change in Change In Difference Between
As Of As Of Base Rate MCLR Policy Rate The Reduction In Base
Apr ’16 Sept ’17 Since Apr ’16 Since Apr ’16 Since Apr ’16 Rate And MCLR
Axis Bank 9.50% 9.05% 0.45% 1.25% 0.50% -0.80%
ICICI Bank 9.35% 9.35% 0.00% 1.00% 0.50% -1.00%
HDFC Bank 9.30% 9.25% 0.05% 1.05% 0.50% -1.00%
Kotak Bank 9.50% 9.40% 0.10% 1.00% 0.50% -0.90%
Yes Bank 10.25% 10.25% 0.00% 0.80% 0.50% -0.80%
Induslnd 10.60% 10.55% 0.05% 1.20% 0.50% -1.15%
SBI 9.30% 9.10% 0.20% 1.20% 0.50% -1.00%
PNB 9.60% 9.35% 0.25% 1.65% 0.50% -1.40%
BOB 9.65% 9.60% 0.05% 0.95% 0.50% -0.90%
BOI 9.70% 9.55% 0.15% 1.10% 0.50% -0.95%
Canara Bank 9.65% 9.45% 0.20% 1.25% 0.50% -1.05%
Source: RBI Data

THE FINDINGS THE SOLUTION the apex bank’s policy repo rate are
better suited to serve the role of an
RBI’s internal study group has found Given the shortcomings discussed external benchmark.
that under the MCLR regime, banks here, the RBI study group has
are slow in passing benefits to recommended a switchover to an The T-Bill reflects the rate at which
customers. Further, the study group external benchmark in a time-bound the government borrows. CD rate is a
found that the MCLR system is manner. This is significant as the time deposit with banks. And
inconsistent among banks, thus lending rate will be benchmarked to repurchase rate or the repo rate is the
putting borrowers at a disadvantage. market rates. The RBI will take a final rate at which the RBI lends money to
view on the recommendations of the banks. It signals short-term interest
The transmission of interest rates on study group after seeking comments rates in the system.
outstanding loans to old customers from the public.
was significantly lower than on fresh According to the suggestion of the
loans. Banks secure their spread The study group has cited 13 possible study group, all floating rate loans
(margins) first before passing on the candidates as external benchmarks. from April ’18 can be based on one of
benefit to the customer. The study While the study said that no external the three external benchmarks that the
group found out that the spreads instrument in India met all the RBI selects.
charged by some banks seemed requirements of an ideal benchmark,
excessive and consistently large. 3 candidates from these 13 can be Outstanding loans can be switched
considered, they said. without any fees from March ’19. The
Further, the study group also found group has also suggested quarterly
that the MCLR regime is not in sync The study group of the RBI is of the interest rate resets as opposed to a
with global practices on pricing of view that the Treasury-Bill rate, the one-year reset as practised now for
bank loans. certificate of deposit (CD) rate and better monetary transmission.

Summary Assessment Of Suggested Candidates For Benchmark


Correlation With Liquidity
The Policy Repo Rate

Instruments Robustness High Low To High Low To Linked To Banks' Existence Of


Cost Of Funds A Term Reliability And
Moderate Moderate (At The Margin) Structure Transparency

Market Repo Yes Yes - - Yes Yes No Yes

T-bill Rates No Yes - - Yes No Yes No

CD Rates No Yes - - Yes Yes Yes No

Repo Rate Yes - - - - Yes No No


Source: RBI Data

26 Beyond Market 16th - 31st Oct ’17 It’s simplified...


THE DEBATE transmission: asset liability deposits to an external benchmark can
mismatch, competition from other lead to volatility in returns for
Why do banks not transmit monetary financial saving instruments and more depositors, mostly senior citizens.
policy quickly? There are some recently deterioration in the health of
genuine factors limiting monetary the banking sector owing to rising This can lead to investors moving
transmission. Unlike in other cases of bad debts. from bank deposits to other financial
countries, the liabilities side of a products, subsequently robbing banks
bank, comprising mostly of current Bankers have expressed a need to of cheap funds. Thus, banks relying
account and savings account and move deposit rates to an external on retail funds can take a beating if
fixed deposits, is insensitive to benchmark, in case loan prices are deposit and lending rates are
changes in external policy rates. based on external benchmarks. This benchmarked externally.
will allow quick monetary
So, the bank has to lower the interest transmission, but there are challenges. For banks, migration to an external
rate that it offers on savings account benchmark for pricing credit can lead
first before cutting lending rates in CHALLENGES to volatility to banks’ spread and
order to save margins. Many senior margin. Profitability of banks can
citizens would tend to lose. While the recommendations of the take a hit initially. Further, any
study group will bring in higher manipulation in external benchmark
There are other reasons also that discipline and transparency in loan can trigger a systemic issue for the
impede monetary policy pricing, there are challenges. Fixing Reserve BanK.

Credit Pricing Methodologies Introduced By The RBI


Methodology Introduced Intent Issues
PLR October ’94 Interest rates deregulated. Interest rate PLRs became rigid and did not
charged to most creditworthy reflect the movement in policy
borrowers became PLR rates
BPLR April ’03 To improve transparency and ensure Below-BPLR lending became
appropriate pricing of loans dominant impeding monetary
transmission. Few loan categories
were outside the purview of the BPLR
Base Rate July ’10 The base rate was linked to banks’ cost of funds. Opaque. The discretion in charging
It facilitated better pricing of loans and enhanced of spreads impacted monetary transmission
transparency in lending rates. Quarterly reviews
MCLR April ’16 The lending rate was linked to the marginal cost High reset period and discretionary
of funds for banks. Monthly reviews spreads being charged by banks prevented
the desired monetary transmission
Source: RBI Data

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EQUITIES* | DERIVATIVES* | COMMODITIES | CURRENCY* | MUTUAL FUNDS^ | IPOs^ | INSURANCE^ | DP* www.nirmalbang.com
Contact at: 022-3926 9600 | e-mail: sales@nirmalbang.com
Disclaimer: Insurance is a subject matter of solicitation. Mutual Fund investments are subject to market risk. Please read the scheme related document carefully before investing. Please read the Do’s and Don’ts prescribed by Commodity Exchange before trading. The PMS Service is not offering for commodity segment. *Through Nirmal Bang Securities Pvt. Ltd. ^Distributors #Prepared by Research Analyst of Nirmal Bang Commodities Pvt. Ltd.

REGD. OFFICE: Sonawala Building, 25 Bank Street, Fort, Mumbai - 400 001. Tel: 022 - 39267500 / 7501; Fax: 022 - 39267510 CORPORATE OFFICE: B-2, 301/302, Marathon Innova, Off Ganpatrao Kadam Marg, Lower Parel (W), Mumbai - 400 013. Tel: 022 - 39268000 / 8001; Fax: 022 - 39268010

Beyond Market 16th - 31st Oct ’17 It’s simplified... 27


A GAME
FMCG firms and
retailers are seeing a

CHANGER clear recovery post the


implementation of GST

28 Beyond Market 16th - 31st Oct ’17 It’s simplified...


A
s the goods and services hair oil, toothpaste and soaps have soaps segment, where GST rates have
tax (GST) roll-out been put under the 18% tax slab, come down, the company has passed
completes more than significantly lower than the previous on the benefits to consumers through
three months, major fast 22% to 24% slab. The GST rate price reduction or increase in weight.
moving consumer goods (FMCG) schedule indicates that nearly 81% of In categories where GST rates have
firms, including Hindustan Unilever, all items are in the 18% tax bracket, or gone up, the company has absorbed
Dabur and Godrej Consumer, expect below that figure. the price increase.
full recovery from the pangs of
implementation of the new tax regime Among consumer goods makers, Marico took a price cut of 5% in Vaho
by the end of the third quarter with Hindustan Unilever was the first and 3% to 4% in Saffola due to GST.
clear signs of demand picking up in company to cut prices of products No price increase has been initiated in
the horizon. such as Rin bar, while increasing the Parachute’s portfolio.
weight of others like Dove bathing
Most FMCG firms were hit by bar and Surf Excel bar. Experts said that FMCG companies
de-stocking by channel partners are likely to witness their costs
ahead of the implementation of GST Hindustan Unilever in its Q1FY18 coming down, going forward with the
in July this year due to uncertainties results said that it had reduced prices implementation of GST on overall
of transition to the new system. of products such as detergent bars, logistics, warehousing, and also enjoy
skin cleanser, toothpastes and hair oil. the benefit of input tax credit.
FMCG companies have witnessed For example, a Surf Excel bar, which
strong demand in the sector with would earlier cost `29, is now being All these are likely to improve
many product prices declining post sold at `27. Similarly, the company is margins of FMCG companies and
implementation of GST. currently selling a pack of four demand is also expected to improve
Lifebuoy Activ Silver at `94, instead as the companies are likely to pass on
While cut in product prices has of `104. the benefits partially to consumers.
definitely helped in the revival of
demand in both urban and rural areas The company has brands such as RS Sodhi, Managing Director,
going forward, strong demand in the Wheel, Rin, Surf Excel, Comfort, Gujarat Co-operative Milk Marketing
FMCG sector is expected to continue Sunlight, Vim, Domex, etc in the Federation (GCMMF) said that Amul
as normal monsoon in most places home care segment, while in personal had reduced prices on dairy whiteners
would revive rural economy. care it has brands such as Lux, Liril, and cream by around 6%, which took
However, in some cases where Hamam, Sunsilk, Rexona, Lifebuoy, the prices back to 2014 levels.
product prices have gone up Dove, Pears, etc. The company said
marginally, FMCG companies have any “further changes will be However, the company increased
absorbed them. communicated in due course” on prices on its Amul and Sagar ghee
other products. brands by 7%, following a GST of
Prices have fallen in the FMCG 12%, up from 5%. While he expects
segment after the roll-out of GST. A Industry experts said that after a prod consumption growth in dairy
host of consumer majors, including from the government, other FMCG whiteners, cream and paneer to go up,
Hindustan Unilever and ITC, have companies also followed suit and Sodhi feels ghee sales could be
reduced prices of FMCG products brought down product prices, passing impacted because of the price rise.
such as soaps, shampoo, detergents, on the benefits of GST to consumers.
biscuits and savoury snacks, among The fear that anti-profiteering clause While the price of Amul Ghee has
other items. may be invoked, compelled FMCG gone up by 7% to `505 (1 litre refill
companies to pass on the benefits of pack) from `470, Amulya 1 kg pouch
This has resulted in a 3% to 8% GST to consumers. price has in fact come down from
decline in prices of goods across `358 to `335. Amul cream prices are
modern retail outlets, including Big A Nestle India spokesperson said, the down 4% (Amulspray 1 kg pouch -
Bazaar and HyperCity, apart from company has passed on the benefits to old price `360, new price `335; Amul
online grocery firms such as the consumers in categories where Cream 1 litre - old price `190, new
Bigbasket and Grofers. there is a tax reduction. price `182).

After the implementation of GST, According to a Godrej official, in the However, major FMCG companies

Beyond Market 16th - 31st Oct ’17 It’s simplified... 29


including Hindustan Unilever, aligned with the new taxation regime, prices on certain products and other
Marico and Dabur India, among problems continue to persist at FMCG companies too have cut
others, had witnessed a dip in sales smaller wholesale level. product prices, which has been passed
and lower volumes impacted by on to consumers.
de-stocking by trade partners due to According to a sector analyst, initial
transition in the run up to the implementation glitches seem to be Moreover, lowering of prices has
implementation of GST. over and although the wholesale helped boost sales. An official from a
channel has taken a bit longer to adapt leading e-grocery chain said that an
Most consumer product companies to the new tax regime, the retail e-grocer, prior to the GST regime,
reported tepid sales growth in the channel recovered much faster and was clocking a 15% spurt in monthly
April-June period despite healthy quite smoothly in the July-August sales. After the implementation of the
consumer demand because of time period. GST, the company posted a 23%
destocking by trade, especially increase in sales in July.
wholesalers and retailers that By the end of the third quarter, a full
purchased limited inventory in the recovery in the wholesale channel is Echoing a similar view, an official
run-up to the new tax system. expected and industry watchers are from Bigbasket.com, said that
optimistic about a stronger reduction in prices of products has
However, FMCG sales by volume, or performance in the coming quarters helped both consumers as well as
an actual number of products sold, as the problem of destocking has been sellers. Post the drop in prices, the
rose 6% in July, faster than 2% a year almost reslolved. online grocery retail chain has seen an
ago, according to the latest data by uptick in sales. Industry experts
Kantar Worldpanel, the consumer Modern retail chains agreed that post opined that as manufacturers get more
insights arm of WPP. the roll-out of GST, prices of many clarity on input tax credit, a further
products have dropped and demand reduction in rates is on the cards.
This was mainly driven by 12% has seen an upward trend.
growth in rural areas and a 7% rise in Industry experts are of the opinion
the food and beverages (F&B) “Post the roll-out of the GST, there that with the market sentiment
category that has a significant chunk has been a downward trend in the showing signs of improvement and
of unbranded players. prices of products as far as new stock stability returning post-GST
is concerned. implementation, the demand scenario
A year ago, both segments grew 2% is expected to move up, both in rural
each. It’s been driven by a catch-up “However, as we still have three-five and urban markets.
from the significant destocking that months of old stock which belongs to
the industry saw, along with some the pre-GST regime, the larger impact Overall the massive destocking seen
benefits from government would be seen once the old stock gets in June has been sufficiently refilled
investments in the rural economy and completely replaced by new items,” and FMCG firms and retailers are
the impact of a good monsoon. said Sadashiv Nayak, CEO of Big seeing a clear recovery.
Bazaar, Future Group India.
According to an FMCG report for the Not surprising that consumption of
July-September quarter of this year, For instance, biscuit manufacturer groceries and daily essentials picked
industry experts feel most FMCG Unibic India has brought down prices up sharply in July, helped by pent-up
companies are likely to report growth by 10% to 20% across products. demand from traders after orders had
of 4.3%, 5.3%, and 7% in revenue, Likewise, retailers claim that prices of been slashed in June and blunted
EBITDA and net profit, respectively, other food products such as museli, competition from unbranded products
on a year-on-year basis. corn flakes and wheat flakes, among that struggled to reach retail shelves
others, too have come down. due to difficulties in GST compliance,
Despite a subdued year-on-year especially in rural markets.
performance, a marked improvement At HyperCity, many of the food items
in sequential performance is have a zero percent tax and the The implementation of GST will
expected. Initial glitches post-GST retailer have passed on the benefits to certainly usher in a more compliant
roll-out in July has had an impact on customers mainly in private labels. A environment. FMCG Players who
all the companies in general. While spokesperson of the retail chain said, don’t adapt to play by the rules will
corporates and large distributors have Hindustan Unilever too has reduced struggle over timE.

30 Beyond Market 16th - 31st Oct ’17 It’s simplified...


TIMELY
INSIGHTS

The Uday Kotak Committee’s


recommendations on corporate
governance have come at the
right time

Beyond Market 16th - 31st Oct ’17 It’s simplified... 31


T
he 23-member corporate statuatory framework, the spirit could be lost if proxy for promoters
governance committee behind corporate governance has yet are appointed just for the sake of
headed by Uday Kotak not been embraced wholeheartedly by numbers. But right spirit can make the
submitted its listed companies in India. To fix the company board effective.
recommendations to markets loopholes, a new committee under
regulator Securities and Exchange Uday Kotak was set up to enhance Separate Roles For Chairman And
Board of India (SEBI) on 5th October. standards of corporate governance in Managing Director
The suggestions are so far-reaching listed companies in India.
that it has stirred a serious debate over The committee has recommended that
the subject. The report is open for RECOMMENDATIONS starting April ’20, companies with a
public comments till 4th November. public shareholding of 40% or more
Key suggestions of the Kotak should separate the roles of the
Corporate governance is a broad committee revolve around chairperson and the managing
concept. It is all about how ethically a effectiveness of company board, director, and appoint a non-executive
company through its board members related-party transactions and chairperson in order to prevent
and management runs it, keeping improving disclosure standards. excessive concentration of power in
interests of all stakeholders in mind. Importantly, the committee has one individual.
Core principles behind corporate proposed a timeline between 2018
governance are fairness, transparency and 2020 for the adoption of various Analysis: This is the most
and accountability. suggestions made by it. controversial suggestion of the
committee. Promoters are
In India corporate governance has EFFECTIVE COMPANY BOARD entrepreneurs and they would not like
gained much importance in the last to lose control over the company. If
one decade. Serious wrongdoings like Directors they become non-executive chairmen,
corporate scams, window dressing of they will lose control over the daily
financial statements, shady The committee on corporate functioning of the company. And if
related-party transactions, influential governance has said that the they retain the post of the managing
promoter group, exorbitant minimum number of directors on the director, then they tend to lose
managerial remunerations, risky board of a public listed company be influence on the company board.
mergers and acquisitions, and increased to six from three currently.
suppression of minority shareholder The company board needs to have a Perhaps, this is the reason why most
rights warrant fair standards of minimum of 50% representation of promoters hold both the posts - of the
corporate governance. independent directors, including one chairman and the managing director.
woman director. Also, as a non-executive chairman,
THE JOURNEY promoters only get a sitting fee and
The committee has also suggested lose out on huge salaries they would
Improving standards of corporate that the number of board meetings be have otherwise got if they were in an
governance is an ongoing process. expanded to five every year from four executive role. While the proposal
Several committees in the past - currently. A director in a listed can hamper the ease of doing
Kumar Mangalam Birla, Narayana company can be a director on the business, if done in the right spirit, the
Murthy, Adi Godrej and Naresh board of only seven other companies, management can get detached from
Chandra - have made valuable as against the current regulation, the influence of the promoter group.
recommendations, which have been which allows one to be a director on
largely adopted. the board of up to 10 companies. Related-Party Transactions

In India the standards of corporate Analysis: The suggestion will prove The committee has recommended that
governance for listed entities are set expensive to the company as it will the related-party transactions (RPT)
by the Ministry of Corporate Affairs have to pay directors the sitting fees be strengthened. From once a year,
(MCA) through Companies Act, 2013 for attending board meets. Also, there the RTP should be disclosed on a
and SEBI through Clause 49 of listing is a dearth of quality independent half-yearly basis.
agreement that the company needs to directors in the market who can add
sign with the stock exchanges. value to the board. The purpose of the Analysis: Earlier many deals with
However, even with a robust institution of independent directors related parties used to go unnoticed.

32 Beyond Market 16th - 31st Oct ’17 It’s simplified...


The suggestion will keep depository receipt holders with more promoter-management tussle at
shareholders happy. than 1% shareholding to the stock Infosys and Tata companies have
exchanges on a quarterly basis. forced regulators to review corporate
Information Flow To Promoters governance norms.
The committee has proposed that
The committee has recommended the disclosures by companies to stock In that sense, the Kotak committee’s
creation of a formal channel by way exchanges and on their own websites recommendations are timely.
of an agreement to facilitate sharing be in a format that allows investors to Recommendations on independent
of information between promoters find information with ease. The directors, related-party transactions
and the company. company also needs to explain and disclosures are structural in
significant changes in select financial nature. This will enhance
Analysis: Currently, there are ratios in the annual report. transparency and effectiveness in the
instances of flow of information to Additionally, the committee has way the boards of listed companies
promoters or significant shareholders recommended that all listed function. However, it remains to be
through informal channels. Given companies publish cash flow seen how many of these suggestions
their importance as decision makers, statements on a half-yearly basis. will actually be accepted given the
promoters can now seek sensitive mixed reactions from corporates,
information for legitimate purposes. Analysis: This entire proposal will which are mostly promoter-owned.
help small investors. They can now
Disclosure track companies with relative ease. There is no denial that companies that
exhibit sound corporate governance
To increase transparency, the IN A NUTSHELL generate higher returns in the longer
committee has recommended higher term. Good governance practices are
disclosure needs citing reasons for the Several corporate governance failures indispensable for boosting investor
abrupt exit of an independent director across the world have directed the confidence. It’s important for
or an auditor. The company will also focus on good governance in recent corporate India to accept governance
have to disclose details of global times. Back home the norms in letter as well as in spiriT.

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Beyond Market 16th - 31st Oct ’17 It’s simplified... 33


REINVENTING
TO STAY RELEVANT
Although the Indian insurance market is facing
challenging times, it is poised for strong growth

T
he Indian insurance prospects of life and general In the last financial year, the Indian
industry continues to lag insurance look good following the life insurance industry’s new business
behind its Asian and passage of new rules under the premiums grew by 26.13%, largely
global peers despite being Insurance Laws (Amendment) Act, due to the popularity of single
one of the fastest growing economies 2015. Further, deeper penetration of premium policies (both in individual
in the world. insurance among masses and rise in segment as well as group business).
equity markets are encouraging
However, things have started moving people to save more by going in for While general insurance companies’
in the right direction now. The insurance as an investment avenue. gross direct premiums were at `1.27

34 Beyond Market 16th - 31st Oct ’17 It’s simplified...


lakh crore, a growth of 32% in Insurance Regulator and reduce discounts that investors used
FY16-17, sharp growth in the non-life Development Authority of India to ascribe to valuations.
sector was largely due to the growth (IRDAI) and the opening up of the
in health, motor and new crop insurance sector to private players in LIFE INSURANCE INDUSTRY
insurance schemes. 2000, it has witnessed rapid growth. - AWAITING CHANGE

Owing to new rules, a surge in equity To address the need for custom-made The size of the Indian life insurance
markets and overall positive products and ensure prompt service, industry is at nearly `4.2 lakh crore
sentiments for the insurance industry, many private sector players have on a total-premium basis as of fiscal
life insurance as well as non-life entered the market in India. 2017. In terms of total premium, the
insurance, have started lining up their Indian life insurance industry is the
initial public offerings (IPOs). Innovative products, aggressive 10th largest market in the world and
marketing and effective distribution the fifth largest in Asia.
Till few days back, only one life have altered fledgling private
insurance company, that is, ICICI insurance companies, thus helping New premiums constituted 42% of
Prudential Life Insurance was listed sign up Indian customers rapidly than total premiums as of fiscal 2017. The
in India. But in the last one month, expected. Private sector players are industry’s assets under management
ICICI Lombard General Insurance likely to play an increasingly (AUM) grew at a compound annual
and SBI Life have been listed on the important role in the growth of the growth rate (CAGR) of 19% in fiscal
Indian stock exchanges. insurance sector in the near future. 2001 to fiscal 2017 to `30 lakh crore.

Soon New India Assurance, General But changes in unit linked insurance India’s life insurance penetration
Insurance Corporation of India (GIC plans (ULIPs) and passage of the stood at 2.7% in 2016 compared with
Re), Reliance General Insurance and much delayed bill on foreign direct 4.4% in 2010. Among Asian
HDFC Standard Life Insurance may investment (FDI) has been passed and countries, life insurance sector’s
hit the equity markets and collect activity levels are high. The most penetration in Thailand, Singapore
`25,000 crore to `35,000 crore important piece of regulation ‘FDI in and South Korea was at 3.7%, 5.5%,
through IPOs. Insurance’ has finally seen the light of and 7.4%, respectively, in 2016. This
the day post 2014, after being in the suggests the untapped potential of the
This article sheds light on the Indian making for years. This has brought Indian life insurance market.
insurance industry and how IPOs much-needed speed in the insurance
would change the face of this sector. industry. Following this But things are set to change for the
announcement, many foreign players better. After ICICI Life Insurance,
STORY SO FAR increased their stake in their Indian SBI Life is the second life insurance
joint ventures. player to be listed on Indian bourses.
Though the Indian insurance industry The company is now valued at around
is a few decades old, we will look at Multiple valuation disclosures, which `68,000 crore. While ICICI
the sector since the year 2000 when had been a bane for investors for Prudential Life Insurance currently
the sector was opened up to private years, is now finally being addressed. has a market cap of over `58,000
players for business. Over the past few years, investors crore, HDFC Standard Life is also
were grappling with a slew of planning to come out with its IPO in
Since then, the sector has grown disclosures under different valuation the latter part of this financial year.
immensely. Competition among methods adopted by select players.
players has provided consumers with Potential listings would help Indian
a never-before-seen range of products Potential listings will be a good insurers provide clarity, improve trust
and providers, and also enhanced beginning and it will enable investors and brand value, and retain talent.
service levels markedly. to do meaningful comparisons.
Listings, which prescribe a uniform Insurers need to seek approval from
Both life and non-life insurance method of disclosures and calculating the IRDAI. Companies wishing to list
sectors in India, which were embedded value, will enable more will have to seek approval from
nationalized in the 1950s and 1960s, meaningful comparisons across IRDAI before approaching the
respectively, were liberalized in the insurance players. This, in turn, will markets regulator Securities and
1990s. Since the formation of the bring in more transparency and Exchange Board of India (SEBI).

Beyond Market 16th - 31st Oct ’17 It’s simplified... 35


IPOs TO CHANGE FORTUNES picking up and structural drivers in investors. Also, these are the first set
OF GENERAL INSURANCE? place (rise in healthcare costs, growth of companies being listed on the
in retail, auto sector, agricultural bourses while others will follow soon.
In the months to come, the Indian reforms and schemes), the growth
equity markets will see the listing of trajectory of the general insurance There is also a huge potential in the
India’s largest non-life insurance sector is expected to remain strong micro-insurance segment with a
company, The New India Assurance, over the next five years. majority of the Indian population
along with national reinsurer, General residing in rural areas. After
Insurance Corporation of India (GIC Despite recording a double digit de-tarrification, the non-life insurance
Re). Together they are likely to growth in eight out of the last 10 segment witnessed a slowdown in
collect anywhere between `15,000 years, the sector has been making premium growth. However, with one
crore and `20,000 crore. significant underwriting losses from lakh crore premium mark passed in
its core operations for the past many the last fiscal, the sector may grow at
While GIC Re plans to raise around years. In spite of growing rapidly, a a stable rate in the coming years.
`11,372 crore from its IPO, SBI has majority of all non-life insurance
managed to raise `8,400 crore and companies are incurring huge Both health insurance as well as auto
ICICI Lombard `5,700 crore. underwriting losses. The only major insurance are highly promising, and
source of profit has been investment are expected to increase their share
With a total gross premium of `1.3 income on policyholders’ funds. manifold in the coming years.
lakh crore in fiscal 2017, India is
among the top 15 general insurance The rise in the number of non-life On the other side, the reinsurance
markets in the world and one of the insurers, coupled with de-tariffing in industry is likely to increase pricing
fastest growing markets. 2007 led to persistent price wars in a rates in the light of rising claims. The
bid to gain market share. However, market has to ensure that domestic
India’s general insurance penetration continued restrictions on premium companies increase their own
(which is defined as gross insurance pricing of the biggest non-life capacities and introduce stricter
premiums as a percentage of GDP) segment, i.e. third party motor guidelines as primary risk carriers.
was 0.8% in 2016, compared with liability (which is still administered
0.6% in 2007. In comparison, the by tariff) implied that insurers Insurance companies need to
global general insurance industry’s continued to book heavy losses. establish business relations with their
penetration was 2.81% in 2016. Such reinsurers to prevent them from
hugely under-penetrated market Additionally, the inability of general worldwide reinsurance cycle that
shows that there is potential for the insurers to differentiate on the basis of affects capacity and stability.
non-life insurance industry to grow product offerings along with the lack
from here and investors would gain if of customer awareness about product In the future, insurance companies are
they held such stocks for long term. features has kept customers’ likely to compete on a number of
relationship with the general parameters, including competitive
Gross premiums of general insurance insurance industry extremely price- prices, innovative products and sales
companies grew at a CAGR of 17% in driven. All such things are likely to techniques and underwriting. Poorly-
the last five years ending fiscal 2017. improve once there is transparency managed players with weak capital
The growth in the industry can be and insurers move out of the base may either drop out of the
attributed to increasing penetration loss-making business and focus more market or become uncompetitive on
due to continuing growth in segments on money-making options. premium rates and profits.
such as motor insurance, introduction
of government schemes in specific IN A NUTSHELL For insurance companies, profit from
segments such as crop insurance, innovation will be key to its success.
financial inclusion drive (Jan Dhan Although the Indian insurance market Technology will help them develop
Yojana, etc) that has increased is facing challenging times, it is and customize products to meet
awareness about the need for poised for strong growth in the long individual needs. India will continue
insurance in general segments and run. Listing of insurance companies strong premium growth momentum,
continued growth in the economy. has many advantages for both life as provided private players stay
well as non-life players as it would innovative with best product designs
With economic growth gradually bring in a lot of transparency for and distribution channel usagE.

36 Beyond Market 16th - 31st Oct ’17 It’s simplified...


;174)1#.5
174':2'46+5'

There is no shortcut to reach your financial goals. But there is always a proper
path. We help simplify the path for you through in-depth research backed by
decades of valuable experience in the industry.

Disclaimer : Insurance is a subject matter of solicitation .mutual fund Investments are subject to market risk. ‘investment in securities/ Commodities market are subject to market risks, read all
the related documents carefully before investing’ Nirmal bang securities pvt.ltd. Please read the Do’s and Don’ts prescribed by Commodity Exchange Before trading. The PMS Service is not
offering for commodity Segment *Nirmal bang Commodities Pvt ltd #Distributors. “The securities quoted are exemplary and are not recommendatory”
MCX SEBI No INZ000043630,
Buckfast Recommendations
Finance is a maze of umpteen possibilities and choices. And it is easy for individuals to lose their
way in this tangle. In such a scenario, an expert comes handy. For, he alone can wade through
the enigmatic world of finance and simplify choices for investors.

Buckfast Research, the research arm of Buckfast Financial Advisory Services Pvt Ltd,
recommends mutual fund schemes that can be considered by investors.

About Buckfast Research


Buckfast Research, the research arm of Buckfast Financial Advisory Services Pvt Ltd is guided by
Mr Vijai Mantri and a team of professionals with more than 50 years of cumulative experience
with leading Indian and Global Mutual Fund companies.

A number of parameters have been taken into consideration while making the
recommendations. Some of the guidelines are track record of the scheme and consistency, risks
associated with the scheme, fund house pedigree and credentials of the fund manager.

However, there is no specific time frame for the investment as such. It depends entirely on an
investor’s objectives, investment timeline, risk tolerance and type of scheme he/she wishes to
invest in. By and large, equity schemes are suggested with a long-term investment horizon.

Disclaimer
Mutual Fund Investments are subject to market risks. Please read the offer document carefully before investing.
Source: ACE MF, NAV as on 10th Oct ’17.
SIP returns as on 30th Sept ’17. M=Months, Y=Year, D=Days
Past performance is no guarantee of future performance.
Returns are of Growth option of Regular plans
Returns which are below 1 year period are Annualized Returns

Diversified Funds
Historic Return (%)
SCHEME NAME NAV 1 Year 3 Years 5 Years 7 Years 10 Years AUM (Cr)
Lumpsum
Axis Focused 25 Fund 24.93 22.75 18.17 17.94 - - 1981
MOSt Focused Multicap 35 Fund 25.86 25.35 24.91 - - - 9179
L&T India Spl. Situations Fund 47.57 23.20 15.31 18.98 13.06 11.62 1090
Principal Growth Fund 137.65 22.88 16.84 21.34 13.16 8.10 503
SIP
Axis Focused 25 Fund 24.93 29.92 18.67 18.82 - - 1981
MOSt Focused Multicap 35 Fund 25.86 28.63 22.65 - - - 9179
L&T India Spl. Situations Fund 47.57 21.84 15.49 18.51 17.47 16.49 1090
Principal Growth Fund 137.65 25.83 18.96 21.00 19.32 15.95 503

38 Beyond Market 16th - 31st Oct ’17 It’s simplified...


Large Cap Funds
Historic Return (%)
SCHEME NAME NAV 1 Year 3 Years 5 Years 7 Years 10 Years AUM (Cr)
Lumpsum
MOSt Focused 25 Fund 20.67 17.21 15.41 - - - 807
Invesco India Growth Fund 30.64 21.11 15.00 18.75 12.07 10.47 211
Mirae Asset India Opportunities Fund 45.31 21.35 16.54 20.81 14.73 - 4738
IDFC Focused Equity Fund 37.79 33.40 14.10 14.82 8.70 8.75 558
SIP
IDFC Focused Equity Fund 37.79 41.04 19.57 16.97 14.18 12.44 558
Invesco India Growth Fund 30.64 25.75 15.29 18.05 16.63 15.16 211
Mirae Asset India Opportunities Fund 45.31 23.19 17.29 20.62 19.18 - 4738
Reliance Top 200 Fund 30.66 19.28 13.38 17.29 16.30 14.84 5016

Mid and Small Cap Funds


Historic Return (%)
SCHEME NAME NAV AUM (Cr)
1 Year 3 Years 5 Years 7 Years 10 Years
Lumpsum
IDFC Sterling Equity Fund 53.15 32.69 19.23 21.24 14.80 - 1642
Reliance Small Cap Fund 40.95 31.16 23.20 31.16 22.12 - 4546
HDFC Small Cap Fund 39.33 25.26 19.94 21.63 13.13 - 1316
L&T Emerging Businesses Fund 25.69 36.72 26.76 - - - 1873
SIP
IDFC Sterling Equity Fund 53.15 37.62 22.10 23.15 20.62 - 1642
Reliance Small Cap Fund 40.95 29.24 24.19 32.91 28.93 - 4546
L&T Emerging Businesses Fund 25.69 37.38 29.29 - - - 1873
Mirae Asset Emerging Bluechip 48.88 25.72 24.28 31.05 28.46 - 4428

ELSS Schemes (Tax Saving u/s 80-C)


Historic Return (%)
SCHEME NAME NAV 1 Year 3 Years 5 Years 7 Years 10 Years AUM (Cr)
Lumpsum
IDFC Tax Advt(ELSS) Fund 54.40 27.39 17.88 21.49 14.18 - 685
MOSt Focused Long Term Fund 16.99 25.85 - - - - 661
L&T Tax Advt Fund 53.37 23.93 16.98 18.92 12.17 12.22 2548
Mirae Asset Tax Saver Fund 15.68 26.59 - - - - 586
SIP
IDFC Tax Advt(ELSS) Fund 54.40 32.35 18.66 21.03 19.41 - 685
Mirae Asset Tax Saver Fund 15.68 28.50 - - - - 586
MOSt Focused Long Term Fund 16.99 29.01 - - - - 661
Principal Tax Savings Fund 202.59 - 18.79 20.90 19.36 15.90 347

Dynamic Equity Funds


Historic Return (%)
SCHEME NAME NAV 1 Year 3 Years 5 Years 7 Years 10 Years AUM (Cr)
Lumpsum
ICICI Pru Dynamic Plan 244.39 14.98 13.90 16.24 15.43 15.16 7382
Tata Equity P/E Fund 135.42 28.86 22.83 25.35 21.66 19.07 1815

Beyond Market 16th - 31st Oct ’17 It’s simplified... 39


Balanced Funds
Historic Return (%)
SCHEME NAME NAV AUM (Cr)
6 month 1 Year 3 Years 5 Years

HDFC Balanced Fund 142.44 16.24 14.60 14.15 18.19 15643


L&T India Prudence Fund 25.38 15.97 15.97 15.04 18.82 7043
Mirae Asset Prudence Fund 13.18 18.42 16.64 - - 795
Reliance Reg Savings Fund-Balanced Option 53.18 21.91 17.05 14.11 16.93 9069
Principal Balanced Fund 72.26 29.90 21.42 15.83 17.79 445

Equity Savings (Arbitrage MIP) Funds


Historic Return (%)
SCHEME NAME NAV AUM (Cr)
6 month 1 Year 3 Years 5 Years

HDFC Equity Savings Fund 34.19 8.18 12.25 10.69 10.71 3046
Reliance Equity Savings Fund 12.30 13.66 11.99 - - 1328
DSPBR Equity Savings Fund 12.12 11.67 9.19 - - 1218
Principal Equity Savings Fund 33.87 11.08 8.66 8.33 7.52 23

Monthly Income Plans


Historic Return (%)
SCHEME NAME NAV AUM (Cr)
3 month 1 Year 3 Years 5 Years

ICICI Pru MIP 25 38.76 12.26 10.26 11.73 12.02 1440


Reliance MIP 40.77 11.43 8.25 10.23 10.69 2407
SBI Magnum MIP 38.11 10.09 8.11 11.66 10.75 1490
Aditya Birla SL MIP II-Wealth 25 38.86 15.18 11.29 14.01 14.24 2353

Income & Dynamic Bond Funds


Historic Return (%)
SCHEME NAME NAV AUM (Cr)
3 month 6 month 1 Year 3 Years 5 Years

ICICI Pru Long Term Plan 21.34 2.05 10.63 8.10 11.64 11.64 3134
UTI Dynamic Bond Fund 19.90 2.18 8.41 8.66 10.69 10.12 1686
Franklin India IBA 59.53 6.95 9.07 8.71 9.39 9.40 969
SBI Regular Savings Fund 29.59 6.02 9.46 10.00 10.63 10.09 1232

Accrual Funds
Historic Return (%)
SCHEME NAME NAV AUM (Cr)
3 month 6 month 1 Year 3 Years 5 Years

Baroda Pioneer Credit Opp Fund 13.11 7.52 9.28 9.07 - - 926
BOI AXA Corporate Credit Spectrum Fund 12.88 7.92 9.83 9.40 - - 1325
Franklin India Dynamic Accrual Fund 59.60 8.37 9.75 9.47 10.63 9.33 2752
Aditya Birla SL Corp Bond Fund 12.59 6.54 9.97 8.82 - - 3855

40 Beyond Market 16th - 31st Oct ’17 It’s simplified...


Short Term Funds
Historic Return (%)
SCHEME NAME NAV AUM (Cr)
1 month 3 month 6 month 1 Year 3 Years

Aditya Birla SL Short Term Fund 64.85 2.55 6.71 8.23 7.40 9.25 19387
Franklin India ST Income Plan 3562.28 5.62 8.80 10.04 9.62 9.45 8705
HDFC Regular Savings Fund 33.70 4.07 6.56 7.56 7.51 9.44 5391
UTI Banking & PSU Debt Fund 13.87 3.52 6.37 7.64 7.89 9.19 991

Ultra Short Term Funds


Historic Return (%)
SCHEME NAME NAV AUM (Cr)
1 month 3 month 6 month 1 Year 3 Years

Aditya Birla SL Savings Fund 331.59 4.49 6.94 7.84 7.46 8.74 22879
Franklin India Ultra Short Bond Fund-Super Inst 23.25 6.39 7.92 8.45 8.65 9.45 11065
ICICI Pru Flexible Income Plan 323.50 5.29 7.01 7.57 7.58 8.63 23487
L&T FRF 16.64 5.86 7.31 7.81 7.75 8.51 564

Liquid Funds
Historic Return (%)
SCHEME NAME NAV AUM (Cr)
3 month 6 month 1 Year 3 Years 5 Years

Aditya Birla SL FRF-Short Term Plan 223.86 6.53 6.64 6.79 7.78 8.37 8169
Franklin India TMA-Super Inst 2510.94 6.41 6.59 6.75 7.81 8.39 3230
Kotak Floater-ST 2756.25 6.45 6.55 6.75 7.77 8.34 11479
Axis Liquid Fund 1860.65 6.48 6.57 6.77 7.73 8.29 16680

Arbitrage Funds
Historic Return (%)
SCHEME NAME NAV AUM (Cr)
3 month 1 Year 3 Years 5 Years

Axis Enhanced Arbitrage Fund 12.27 5.68 6.15 6.61 - 1222


Reliance Arbitrage Advantage Fund 17.27 5.73 5.83 6.89 7.62 7651
L&T Arbitrage Opp Fund 12.45 6.33 6.04 6.77 - 340

Returns as on 30th Sept ’17


Buckfast
Investment Fundamental Value
RETURNS Market Model Addition
in Nifty
Buckfast Fundamental Market Model (BFMM) is a asset (One time)
allocation model, which analyses historical market behaviour
taking into consideration various aspects such as fundamental Last 1 month -1.15% 0.56% 1.71%
ratios, long-term trends. It aims to reduce volatility in the short Last 3 months 2.54% 1.84% -0.70%
to medium-term without compromising the opportunity for
Last 6 months 6.73% 5.70% -1.03%
long-term wealth creation.
Last 1 year 12.87% 8.00% -4.87%
Currently as per BFMM, we suggest 0% allocation to equity Last 2 years 11.36% 8.64% -2.72%
and 100% to debt.
Last 3 years 7.46% 6.60% -0.86%
Last 4 years 14.28% 13.60% -0.69%
Last 5 years 11.51% 10.97% -0.54%
Since Aug 2011 9.87% 10.12% 0.25%

Beyond Market 16th - 31st Oct ’17 It’s simplified... 41


TECHNICAL OUTLOOK

I
ndian equity markets seem to participants are advised to stay light rollover) and Telecom (85.72% - long
be celebrating Diwali early with positions. rollover) saw much higher rollovers
this year, with the Nifty index compared to the same day of the
hitting a new all-time high of Technically, the overall view is previous expiry.
10,251.85 in its trade on 17th positive as the Nifty is under a strong
October. The Nifty climbed 5.83%, or momentum. The Nifty has a resist- While select stocks from Technology,
187.75 points to 10,251.85 in October ance at 10,380/ 10,450 levels, Fertilizers, FMCG and Banking
from 9,687 level on 28th Sept ’17. whereas it has support on the down- sectors are expected to outperform,
Looking at the momemtum of the side in the 10,000-9,940 range. some stocks from Automobile and
Nifty, there is a high probability that Market participants should be stock- Capital Goods sectors are likely to
the Nifty would test the 10,380/ specific, and follow the trend with a underperform in this expiry.
10,450 levels in a couple of weeks, trail stop loss level till it reverses from
only if it sustains above the 10,000- trading perspectives. India VIX, which measures the imme-
9,940 range. diate 30-day volatility in the market,
On the Nifty Options front for the remained in the range of 11-13 in
Technically, the Nifty is trading in an October series, the highest Open October. Going forward, VIX is likely
upward sloping channel, indicating a Interest build up is witnessed near to remain at elevated levels.
positive view. The channel indicates 10,200 and 10,000 Put strikes,
that the Nifty has a strong support at whereas on the Call side, it is The Put Call Ratio-Open Interest
the 9,800 level. As long as it sustains observed at the 10,200 and 10,500 (PCR-OI) for Nifty Options has been
above the 9,800 mark, the uptrend strikes. The market is likely to remain in the range of 1.2-1.70 in the month
will remain intact. bullish towards end October and early of October. Going forward, it may
November with bouts of selling remain bullish, implying a positive
October will be a crucial month given pressure near resistances. undertone in the markets.
the fact that quarterly earnings results
of India Inc are likely to be The September expiry has seen The market is likely to remain bullish
announced. This event is likely to higher-than-average rollovers in Nifty towards October end and early
have a bearing on the Indian markets. (70%) and lower-than-average November with bouts of selling
It is also important to note that the rollovers in Bank Nifty (65%) with a pressure near resistances. The 10,000
Nifty is trading at an all-time high. positive cost of carry, indicating a and 10,200 levels may remain strong
Hence, we may witness some profit mixed bias. Technology (86.95% - supports, while 10,300 and 10,500
booking at higher levels. So, market long rollover), FMCG (85.59% - long levels may see supply pressurE.

TECHNICAL STOCK PICKS FOR DIWALI 2017


Potential
Sr No Stock Name Reco Range CMP Targets Upside

1 LUPIN BUY 980-1,040 1,057 1,370 40%


2 HEXAWARE BUY 240-260 269 340 30%
3 DABUR BUY 300-320 325 400 30%
4 FEDERAL BANK BUY 107-114 116 140 30%
5 M&M BUY 1,280-1,320 1,330 1,600 25%
6 MANAPPURAM BUY 90-100 101 140 55%
7 CARBORUNIV BUY 300-320 323 400 30%
8 GOKEX BUY 110-120 123 160 45%
9 DEEPAKNTR BUY 200-210 218 270 35%
10 TNPL BUY 320-330 340 415 30%
Source: Company Data, Nirmal Bang Research

42 Beyond Market 16th - 31st Oct ’17 It’s simplified...


SMART
INVESTMENT
PLAN
SIPs ARE the secret to long-term wealth
creation and should, therefore, be
considered by investors

A
balanced diet coupled successful investing too. have made.
with regular exercise is
the key to a healthy life. Investing regularly and not Surely many investors can relate to
Each one of us very well impulsively is the secret to amassing this scenario wherein they randomly
knows and understands this fact, yet wealth in the long term for a secured invest in ELSS or any other
how of many of us are disciplined life. Yet, we tend to be tardy. We tax-saving product for the purpose of
enough to follow these key tenets. procrastinate. And, at times, even saving taxes at the end of the financial
The same principle applies to forget about the investment plans we year not realizing that this can be

Beyond Market 16th - 31st Oct ’17 It’s simplified... 43


planned in a much better way. 10, the investor would get 100 units are at play - an event like
for investing `1,000. demonetisation that shocked the
Wouldn’t it be wiser to invest through markets could never have been
the year to average out your cost For every additional purchase predicted. For someone who was
instead of opting for a lumpsum subsequently made, units would be invested in the markets, he/she would
investment, which may subject you to added to the investor’s holdings - have immensely benefited from the
timing the market? higher number of units if the NAV is correction that took place.
lower and lower number of units if the
One such investment option is NAV is high. Since the last few months, the Indian
Systematic investment Plans (SIPs). stock markets have been on an
An SIP is a popular investment Thus, by investing a sum over regular upward spiral. If you had waited for
mechanism commonly used in the intervals, you end up accumulating the markets to correct to put in your
mutual fund industry. units in the scheme through up and money, you would have missed the
down market cycles. This will enable rally where appreciation has been
WHAT ARE SIPs? the investor to benefit from rupee cost upwards of 20% and would probably
averaging and also eliminates the still be waiting on the sidelines for a
An SIP is an investment need to time the market. correction in the markets.
methodology, which enables you to
regularly invest a certain Apart from these two benefits, SIPs That’s where SIPs come into play. It
pre-determined amount towards an also inculcate discipline and provide brings to the table the benefits of
investment product (debt, equity and liquidity, flexibility and much-desired rupee cost averaging and also
gold, among others). convenience to an investor. eliminates the need to time the market

The frequency could be weekly, BENEFITS OF SIPs To illustrate, Rohan has decided to
monthly, quarterly or half yearly. So invest `1,000 every month for a
one could decide to invest an amount Rupee Cost Averaging period of six months. In month one, as
as low as `1,000 in a mutual fund the NAV was `10, he was allocated
scheme on the 1st of every month for Rupee cost averaging doesn’t 100 units.
a period of 5 years, for instance. guarantee profits or protect against
short term losses. However, because On account of the increase in NAV in
The concept is similar to that of of the discipline SIPs bring to month two, the allocated units
Equated Monthly Installments investment, this investment tool increased to 96.15. In month 4, the
(EMIs). However, the key difference ensures that you do not avoid markets NAV fell to `9.
is that SIPs are directed towards when prices are down.
building wealth, while EMIs are used Rohan benefited from this correction
to pay off debts. Markets tend to be cyclical and by and was allocated `111.11 units. His
staying invested over a longer time average cost at the end of month 6
OPERATING MECHANISM horizon, you tend to benefit when the was `9.795, lower than the current
prices rebound. NAV of `10.2, which means Rohan’s
An investor needs to give his/her investment has appreciated over the
bank, a mandate or an instruction to Timing The Markets 6-month time frame.
allow the mutual fund house to debit
from the account a pre-determined This is one of the most frequently Imagine a situation where Rohan
amount at a pre-determined frequency debated topics in investing. When to invested a lump sum amount of
towards the chosen investment invest in the markets is a million `6,000 in month 2, he would be
product, that is, an SIP. dollar question. Each one of us wants allocated units at the highest cost and
to buy cheap to maximize returns. would end up making losses.
As in the above example, the mutual
fund house will debit the investor’s Experts believe that timing the market On the other hand, if he had invested
account on the 1st of every month and is the toughest job even for financial in month 4, he would currently have
allocate units of the scheme in which industry experts let alone laymen like been sitting on a decent appreciation.
the investor wants to invest. If the Net us! It is not always possible to predict But human behaviour is such that
Asset Value (NAV) of the scheme is market movements as multiple factors when markets correct, we tend to sit

44 Beyond Market 16th - 31st Oct ’17 It’s simplified...


on the fence for fear of further losses. impulsive purchases he or she would Does it mean that once you start an
SIPs eliminate the need to decide the make othewise. SIP you forget about it? While SIPs
best time to invest in the markets. bring discipline in investing, one
Liquidity, Flexibility, Convenience should remember that the
To summarize, Rohan has benefited performance of the scheme is
from the ups and downs of the Mutual funds where SIPs are most dependent on several factors.
market, which has averaged out his common usually have an open-ended
cost of acquisition and he did not have scheme, which enables the investor to There may be a slippage in
to bother about tracking and timing redeem at any point in time for any performance due to many factors. So,
the markets, something that even requirement. Thus, the corpus can be tracking one’s investment at least on
investment experts struggle with. withdrawn either fully or partially an annual basis is essential - even an
providing investors the much-needed SIP cannot eliminate the
access to liquidity. responsibility that comes with
Exhibit
managing savings i.e. evaluating
Month NAV % Units
(`) Increase/ Allocated However, as it is true with any other investment decisions.
Decrease tax-saving product, which has a lock
1 10 - 100 in period, there is a restriction on IN A NUTSHELL
2 10.4 4% 96.15 withdrawal if you are investing in a
3 10 -4% 100 tax-saving instrument. According to Peter Lynch, in the long
4 9 -10% 111.11 run, it’s not just how much money
5 9.5 6% 105.26
The amount to be invested through you make that will determine your
6 10 5% 100
SIPs can be changed at any point in future prosperity. It’s how much of
7 10.2 2% -
time, that is, it can either be increased that money you put to work by saving
or decreased based on the investor’s it and investing it.
SIPs Inculcate Discipline cash flow situation, by intimating the
mutual fund company. This could not have been put more
Allowing money to remain idle in the aptly. Discipline in saving and
bank account targeting lump sum Also the frequency and the time for investing will make all the difference
investment can tempt the investor to which the investment is to be made in determining your future wealth
spend impulsively, postponing the can be modified at the behest of the depending on the investments you
planned investment. investor by simply intimating the have made.
mutual fund house.
An SIP will enforce discipline by SIPs can do this job for you by
debiting the account for an amount SIP is a convenient and hassle-free bringing in the much required
that is predefined at a pre-determined mode of investment. You can issue a discipline and in addition it eliminates
frequency, enabling the investor to standing instruction to your bank to the risk of bad market timing,
benefit from the cyclicality of the facilitate auto debits from your bank averages out costs and provides one
investment cycle. This will account. Investments will be made at with the much needed flexibility and
automatically enable the investor to the desired frequency without having liquidity. Procrastination is the thief
exercise restrain when making to physically do anything. of time. Initiate action - start an SIP!

Altruism
It is often alleged that altruism is inconsistent with economic rationality, which assumes that people behave selfishly.
Certainly, much economic analysis is concerned with how individuals behave, and homo economicus (economic man) is
usually assumed to act in his or her self-interest. However, self-interest does not necessarily mean selfish. Some economic
models in the field of behavioural economics assume that self-interested individuals behave altruistically because they get
some benefit, or utility, from doing so. For instance, it may make them feel better about themselves, or be a useful
insurance policy against social unrest. Some economic models go further and relax the traditional assumption of fully
rational behaviour by simply assuming that people sometimes behave altruistically, even if this may be against their
self-interest. Either way, there is much economic literature about charity, international aid, public spending and
redistributive taxation.

Beyond Market 16th - 31st Oct ’17 It’s simplified... 45


To Each
His Own

For some investors, Scuttlebutt


technique is the perfect way to
invest in the markets, and for
others it is Cigarbutt

46 Beyond Market 16th - 31st Oct ’17 It’s simplified...


C
onfusion abounds about management in the annual report and ascertained through a 360 degree
value and growth financials of the company. assessment of the company, that is, by
investing in terms of what the Scuttlebutt technique.
separates them. And High quality companies tend to have
investors often take the middle path. good products and service offerings, CIGARBUTT TECHNIQUE:
However, ‘Scuttlebutt’ and customer orientation, committed LOOKING FOR DEEP VALUE
‘Cigarbutt’ are two concepts that will management, sustainable earnings,
help understand value and growth etc. In Scuttlebutt investment Contrary to Scuttlebutt, the Cigarbutt
investing and what separates the two. technique, all qualitative information technique focuses on buying very
about a company is taken into cheap stocks. The analogy was
INVESTING STYLES consideration. The Scuttlebutt derived from cigarbutts lying on the
technique would involve looking for street, which are still supposed to
‘Scuttlebutt’ was popularized by very good businesses or companies have a few puffs left in them. What it
legendary investor Philip Fisher, ‘the with durable competitive advantages, means is that if you buy some of the
father of growth investing,’ in the a sound business model, and high beaten down stocks at throwaway
1950s. He wrote about the importance growth potential. prices, there is still money to be made
of gathering information about a selling them back when the real value
company from all possible sources in Moreover, investors are supposed to is discovered.
his book ‘Common Stocks and do a lot more ground work under this
Uncommon Profits’ on investment investment technique. An investor One can buy Cigarbutt stocks at very
analysis in 1958. His ideas were later can judge such companies by actually low prices, even below the liquidation
adopted by investors globally, being a consumer of a product or value. But, in reality, they have more
including investors like Fidelity’s service of companies in which they intrinsic value, which can be realized
Peter Lynch, and Warren Buffett. are investing. in the future. They may not be
interested in quality of products,
On the other hand, Cigarbutt was For instance, if you are looking to ignoring or not properly taking into
coined by Benjamin Graham, ‘the invest in an airline company, it would account the future growth prospects
father of value investing’ and the be worthwhile to book few flights and and quality of earnings, etc.
author of ‘Security Analysis’ and make a small number of trips to get a
‘The Intelligent Investor.’ He first-hand experience of the quality of The Cigarbutt investment technique
emphasized on buying stocks which services offered by that particular helps zero in on investment
are highly undervalued or available at airline company. opportunities created by
low prices. fear-inducing events that cause
In the end what matters is consumer short-term shock waves and huge
SCUTTLEBUTT TECHNIQUE: satisfaction. Is the company price dips, like systemic failure,
BEYOND THE BOOKS producing products that delight recessions, other macroeconomic
customers? In fact, Fisher suggested events, wars, or the company or
Scuttlebutt is a technique that is often talking to a few customers to know stock-level events such as
associated with growth investing. It is why they buy a product manufactured disappointing quarterly results. The
about focusing on stocks of high by a particular company. investor can make good profit
quality companies, even if they are through such investments, when
seemingly expensive. Scuttlebutt Similarly, the Scuttlebutt technique prices recover.
investment technique is mainly about entails feedback from customers,
finding or looking for this qualitative knowing how employees are treated DRAWBACKS OF
information, which may or may not by the management, talking to SCUTTLEBUTT AND
be part of conventional investing and competitors, checking with vendors CIGARBUTT TECHNIQUES
assessment practice. and creditors about the credential of
the company and its products. For a Scuttlebutt investor, valuation is
It is about looking for information merely one more criteria to judge the
beyond what is available in the annual The qualitative aspect of a business overall value of the business. The
report or balance sheet of the cannot be judged by the balance sheet price of the stock and various
company. Rather, it is checking or or other traditional financial multiples like P/E, P/B, etc may be
verifying what is claimed by the statement analysis. It can be high as compared to other stocks. But

Beyond Market 16th - 31st Oct ’17 It’s simplified... 47


the price may be high because now those companies have no value. Buffett followed the Cigarbutt
investors perceive that the company is While Cigarbutt investing only works technique while choosing one of the
a high potential company with a lot of to a point and its success is limited by greatest investments See’s Candy. In
sustainable growth in the future, and the size of Cigarbutt assets, huge 1972, he bought the company which
accordingly wants to invest in it even sums of money cannot be invested in had sales of $30 million and pre-tax
at a high price. Cigarbutt assets. This limits the earnings of less than $5 million
growth of the total portfolio due to available for $25 million.
Moreover, the Scuttlebutt technique investments in smaller Cigarbutt
too has its own shortcomings. This stocks. Moreover, the mispricing Globally, legends have practiced both
method is often considered by many mostly occurs in smaller and less the techniques based on the comfort
to be too much of information followed stocks. of their style. Both Scuttlebutt and
seeking. Getting information from Cigarbutt techniques have their own
different sources could be a huge task, WHAT DID LEGENDS DO? merits in terms of producing excellent
which may or may not be possible for results over a period of time.
individual investors. Philip Fisher gathered information
from all possible sources for It is also about the ability of the
That apart, keeping track of such investment valuation. Fisher used individual. Some investors are quite
companies and frequently talking to Scuttlebutt technique when he bought learned and can spot deep-value
management, consumers, suppliers, Motorola, a radio manufacturer at the stocks. Their ability to separate a
competitors, bankers, employees and time. The value of his stake grew 20 good business, which is available at
others could appear to be tiring and times over two decades. really cheap prices, could be very
nearly impossible. high. Others may not be comfortable
Warren Buffet learned Cigarbutt finding deep value stocks. For others,
If an investor fails to do proper technique from his guru Benjamin it is quite handy to spot multibaggers
homework, the Cigarbutt technique Graham and used this technique in his while seeking information beyond
could be a deadly mistake. One needs initial years of investing. what is available in the annual report.
to avoid the pitfalls of choosing a
company, which has no value in it. If In the 1960s, the value of American Their ability to do ground work could
a company’s value has fallen because Express was reduced to half due to the be high compared to others. These
of deterioration of its business or event of fake salad oil warehouse investors will often be seen in trade
fundamentals, share prices of that receipts collateral. Buffett invested in fairs and shopping malls looking for
company may remain low forever or the company as he determined that the next big idea. They are far more
even fall further. the company would not be much curious, constantly doing channel
impacted by this event, after checks and speaking with people
In India, many Cigarbutts in thoroughly analyzing the company from the entire value chain. Unlike
infrastructure, real estate, metal, and its business model. The value of Cigarbutt, which is often termed as
education and other sectors have his stake in the company increased lazy investing, Scuttlebutt involves a
remained Cigarbutts for forever and five times over a period of 5 years. lot of hard worK.

Snake: Snake is an arrangement in which currencies are pegged to each other but left free to float as a group against the
US dollar. It has been named ‘snake’ for the graph that the limits of variation of a currency would follow over time.

Snake In The Tunnel: The ‘snake in the tunnel’ was the first attempt at European monetary cooperation in the 1970s,
aiming at limiting fluctuations between different European currencies. It was an attempt at creating a single currency band
for the European Economic Community (EEC), essentially pegging all the EEC currencies to one another. With the failure
of the Bretton Woods system with the Nixon shock in 1971, the Smithsonian agreement set bands of plus/minus 2.25%
for currencies to move relative to their central rate against the US dollar. This provided a tunnel in which European
currencies could trade. However, in practice, it implied larger bands in which they could move against each other.The
tunnel collapsed in 1973 when the US dollar floated freely. The snake proved unsustainable, with several currencies
leaving and in some cases rejoining.

48 Beyond Market 16th - 31st Oct ’17 It’s simplified...


IMPORTANT JARGON

MERGER OF MUTUAL FUND SCHEMES any confusion.

How Will The Equity Schemes Be Categorized?


On 6th October, markets regulator Securities and
Exchange Board of India (SEBI) asked asset management Equity schemes will have 10 sub-categories: multi-cap
companies (AMCs) to classify various mutual fund fund, large-cap fund, large- and mid-cap fund, mid-cap
scheme offerings into clearly-defined categories. This fund, small-cap fund, dividend yield fund, value fund and
move will lead to the merger of schemes and will give contra fund, focussed fund, sectoral or thematic fund and
clarity to investors in mutual funds. equity-linked funds.

What Is The New Circular On Mutual Funds? What Is The Definition For Large-, Mid- And
Small-Cap?
The circular from SEBI says that fund houses have to
re-categorize existing schemes based on investment SEBI has defined what constitutes a large-, mid- or
strategies. SEBI has offered few buckets under which the small-cap fund. The stocks of the top 100 companies by
schemes can be categorized. market value will be classified as large-caps. Those
companies ranked between 101 and 250 will be termed as
Which Are These Buckets? mid-caps, and stocks of firms beyond top 250 in terms of
market cap will be categorized as small-caps.
At the broadest level, existing mutual fund schemes will
now be classified into five broad categories: equity, debt, What Was The Rationale Behind The Review By
hybrid, solution-oriented, and others. Index funds, fund of SEBI?
funds and sector or thematic schemes will be separate from
the above schemes. Over the years, picking a mutual fund scheme was
becoming an onerous task. There was a problem of plenty.
What Is The Sub-Categorization Within The Broad The 45 odd fund houses offered around 2,000 schemes -
Category? more than 400 equity funds, around 300 debt schemes and
around 426 hybrid schemes, and more than 800 fixed
SEBI has also offered sub-categorization within the broad maturity plans.
scheme category. Equity schemes will have 10
sub-categories. Debt and hybrid schemes will similarly be So, What Is The Issue?
grouped into 16 and six sub-categories, respectively.
Many fund houses have multiple schemes within the same
There will be two categories of solutions-based funds (one category. Mandates of many schemes overlapped. Fund
each for retirement planning and children’s future) and one managers used to alter their investing styles. Comparison
category each for exchange-traded funds (ETFs) and fund with peers was difficult due to non-standardized schemes
of funds (FOFs). So, in all there will be 36 categories. offered by various fund houses.
SEBI has asked fund houses to have just one scheme per
category. SEBI has properly defined each category to clear Are There Any Examples?

Beyond Market 16th - 31st Oct ’17 It’s simplified... 49


Take for instance the case of a mid-cap fund that would be a drag on the fund’s performance.
stray into the large-cap territory. The fund manager would
stray across market caps depending on market conditions. What Should An Investor Do?
While this might generate returns for the fund manager, it
dramatically alters the risk profile and beats the purpose of Investors will have to review their portfolios thoroughly to
the investor contributing to the fund. meet their requirements. But a wait-and- watch approach is
advisable before immediate portfolio review. Investors
Straying from the investment mandate defeats the purpose should wait for the fund house to submit their respective
of investment. Clearly, there is little clarity on the purpose plans. The whole process is expected to take another 5
of different schemes and benchmarking. So far, there were months to 6 months, after which it would be clear as to
no clear guidelines on ways to categorize mutual funds. how the scheme would be classified and re-categorized.

So, Now What Will Happen? A COMMITTEE FOR MARKET


INFRASTRUCTURE INSTITUTIONS
Over the next few months, there will be a flurry of activity
in fund houses to merge and wind-up schemes. Fund On 16th October, markets regulator Securities and
houses will have to align schemes in line with the new Exchange Board of India (SEBI) set up a committee to
norms. Experts expect the number of schemes to fall by review norms for market infrastructure institutions (MIIs)
40-50 schemes. such as stock exchanges, depositories and clearing
corporations. The committee will be headed by former
Is There Any Timeline? What Will Be The Process? Reserve Bank of India (RBI) Deputy Governor R Gandhi.

To start with, fund houses will respond individually to What Would The Committee Review?
SEBI within 2 months with a plan of action as to how they
will consolidate their schemes. SEBI will then examine The committee will assess existing market intermediaries
each fund house’s plan and respond to them. like exchanges, depositories and clearing corporations.
The committee will also identify areas of review in
On SEBI’s approval, fund houses would have a window of regulation of these entities. The committee will also
three months to carry out the necessary changes. This identify areas of improvement of systems, procedures and
means that by early to mid-next year, the mutual fund practices and make recommendations.
industry will look different.
What Is The Genesis Behind The Setting Up Of Such A
How Will The New Rules Help Investors? Committee?

The new rules will ensure standardization of products. An In February this year, SEBI had proposed a review of
investor will be able to make a fair comparison of various regulations related to ownership and governance of market
schemes. The fund manager will not be able to drift from infrastructure institutions.
its core investment mandate. The new rules will improve
transparency and help investors choose the apt product. After getting feedback from the market on various issues
related to MIIs, SEBI has now decided to form a
Is The Move Disruptive? committee to review these norms. The review is in line
with the recommendations of the Bimal Jalan Committee,
Although the new regulations by the markets regulator will which tabled its report in 2012 and asked the regulator to
ensure that the industry follows best practice, there are a conduct a review every five years.
few challenges. As schemes merge, assets under
management (AUM) of some schemes will sharply Why Is This Review On MIIs Important?
increase. This could hurt the scheme’s performance as the
base number of investors will increase. After listing of Multi-Commodity Exchange Ltd, Bombay
Stock Exchange (BSE) and Central Depository Services
Some gains could also be lost as the fund will have to (CDSL), other MIIs like NSE are in plans to get listed. An
rebalance or churn the portfolio to ensure that the fund efficient regulatory mechanism is important to safeguard
aligns with new category norms. Now, with limited investors’ interests. The review is also significant given the
flexibility to stray into another segment, the new rules can recent technological glitches in the exchanges spacE.

50 Beyond Market 16th - 31st Oct ’17 It’s simplified...


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