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the related documents carefully before investing’ Nirmal bang securities pvt.ltd. Please read the Do’s and Don’ts prescribed by Commodity Exchange Before trading. The PMS Service is not
offering for commodity Segment *Nirmal bang Commodities Pvt ltd #Distributors. “The securities quoted are exemplary and are not recommendatory”
MCX SEBI No INZ000043630,
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DB Corner – Page 5
Diwali Delights
Five hand-picked companies to add sparkle to your investment portfolio
– Page 6
Far From True
Contrary to popular belief, the Indian economy is not as bad as it is being
made to believe – Page 11
High Spirits
IPOs of many companies have attracted reasonably good valuations due
to ample liquidity in the markets – Page 14
A Change Of Track
The government’s plans to develop metro rail projects across India
indicates the growth opportunities that lay in the construction sector
– Page 16
Just As Good, If Not Better
Though investors are cautious and are focusing on quality deals, experts
believe that the future of private equity investment looks good – Page 19
Volume 9 Issue: 10, 16th - 31st Oct ’17 India’s Global Appeal
Structural economic reforms and policies are primary reasons for the
growth of India’s textile exports – Page 22
Editor-in-Chief & Publisher: Rakesh Bhandari A New Benchmark
Editor: Tushita Nigam
An RBI study group has recommended a switchover to an external
Senior Sub-Editor: Kiran V Uchil
benchmark in a time-bound manner to solve the monetary transmission
Art Director: Sachin Kamble issue – Page 25
Junior Designer: Orianne Fernandes A Game Changer
FMCG firms and retailers are seeing a clear recovery post the
Operations: Namrata Sabbani implementation of GST – Page 28
Timely Insights
Research Team: Sunil Jain, Runjhun Jain,
Akansha Jain, Vikas Salunkhe, Swati Hotkar, The Uday Kotak Committee’s recommendations on corporate governance
Nirav Chheda have come at the right time – Page 31
The research team believes that while the Indian stock markets have been on an upswing,
individual stocks have been skewed. Some companies are overvalued and some are yet to reach
their true value. Hence, the team has narrowed down on five such companies and elaborated each
one of them in the cover story of the current edition.
Apart from the special article on stock picks, other topics in this issue are the current state of the
Indian economy, which is not performing as bad as people are making it out to be, the cautious
and focused approach adopted by private equity (PE) players while investing in India, the
upswing in the number of initial public offerings (IPOs) with good valuations that are likely to
come up in the Indian stock markets, the details of the recommendations made by the RBI study
group for a switchover to an external benchmark as well as to solve the issue of monetary
transmission, and the suggestions made by the Uday Kotak Committee on corporate governance.
Also featured in this issue are articles on the growth of Indian textile exports, growth
opportunities in the construction sector due to metro rail projects and recovery in fast moving
consumer goods (FMCG) post the implementation of GST.
The Beyond Leaning section features two very interesting articles. One article dwells on the
basics and importance of systematic investment plans (SIPs), the other talks about two different
investment techniques – Scuttlebutt and Cigarbutt. Read on to know more.
The Beyond Market Team wishes you all a very Happy Diwali and a Prosperous New YeaR!
T
he International Monetary Fund (IMF) upgraded its global economic growth forecast for 2017 by
0.1% to 3.6% in its latest World Economic Outlook. The growth rate for 2018 now stands at
3.7%.
The US Federal Reserve recently announced that it was rolling back quantitative easing (QE). Timelines
have also been drawn to achieve this feat. This programme was introduced nine years back in the wake of
the financial meltdown, hoping that increased money supply would boost the economy.
The Reserve Bank of India’s (RBI’s) Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) kept the repurchase or repo rate
unchanged at 6% at its monetary policy meet earlier this month. The move was necessitated due to upside
risks to inflation. It further said decline in interest rates would be difficult in the future.
India Inc results have started on a positive note and are likely to show an uptrend in comparison with Q1
earnings results.
The Indian stock markets look good in the coming fortnight. The Nifty has support at the 10,110 level. The
expected target for the Nifty on the upper side is at the 10,600 level.
In the coming fortnight, market participants are advised to look out for the remaining corporate results as
the markets are likely to be driven by them as well as outlook by company managements for the second half
of the financial yeaR.
Diwali Delights
eyond P o w e r e d b y
Disclaimer : Insurance is a subject matter of solicitation. Mutual fund Investments are subject to market risk. ‘Investment in securities/
Commodities market are subject to market risks, read all the related documents carefully before investing’ Nirmal Bang Securities Pvt.Ltd.
Please read the Do’s and Don’ts prescribed by Commodity Exchange before trading. The PMS Service is not offering for commodity
Segment *Nirmal Bang Commodities Pvt Ltd #Distributors. “The securities quoted are exemplary and are not recommendatory”
MCX SEBI No INZ000043630,
www.nirmalbang.com
M
arket is a strange in which things are not that bleak and believed by many? Let us view the
space. And stranger worrisome, there is also an array of other side of the story in this
space is the media. data, which could amply prove that cacophony of extreme negativity:
Today, due to access stand. So, depending upon one’s
to copious amounts of information, it outlook whether it is philosophical or A statement on the Indian economy
is quite an easy task to paint a factual, one can depict the world the by a non-Indian would help us save
particular scenario depending upon way we intend to depict. any criticism of one-sided
what one intends to project. So, if one presentation of facts. Recently, during
aims to show a bleak and negative But can one really ignore realism at a a conference call ahead of the annual
picture of the economy, an array of time when extreme pessimism is meeting of the International Monetary
data is available that would reigning high? One cannot. So, the Fund and the World Bank, Kim Jim
substantiate the particular viewpoint. moot question is is India really going Yong, President, World Bank said,
And if one wishes to show a scenario through a slowdown as is being “The recent slowdown in India’s
I
t is that time of the markets The money that came in banks had to Mutual fund distributors observe that
where everything seems to go be parked in avenues, which give close to 50% of these inflows have
up. A situation has developed reasonably better returns than fixed been parked in balanced funds. This is
where Initial Public Offerings deposits if not supernormal returns followed by 25% in equity savings
(IPOs) of companies have attracted like real estate. schemes and remaining - close to
more than reasonable valuation. 25% - in large-cap, mid-cap and
Consequently, as per the Association multi-cap schemes.
So, how has this situation developed? of Mutual Funds in India (AMFI), the
One of the key reasons as to why the total inflows in MFs in the year-to- This diversification is helping savvy
Indian stock markets are touching a date period (equity, balanced, equity investors, especially HNIs, protect the
new peak almost every month is ELSS) were `10,0325 crore. Given downside risk to their portfolios. This
consistent liquidity in mutual funds the massive inflows, the question that diversification is a marriage of best of
(MFs) post demonetisation. arises is where is this money parked? all categories in mutual funds besides
I
n contrast to the global happened, which created an be extremely beneficial, there were
economy, which was environment of confusion among some critics who saw little to no good
relatively stable, the Indian financial institutions and Private in this decision. The other major
economy experienced quite a Equity (PE) firms on treading ahead. policy change that took place was the
few ups and downs in the last one passing of Goods and Services Tax
year. India registered a growth of Opinion on the demonetisation (GST) Act.
7.6% in FY16 compared with a 6.5% exercise was widely split. While there
growth in 2015. Things were looking was a general consensus that in the The first quarter of 2017 saw a 22%
good and then demonetisation longer term, this move would prove to decline in PE investments in India.
Vodafone-Idea deal was the leader on Largest PE Investments in July - September 2017
charts, contributing $12.4 billion of Amount
Company Investors (US$ mn)
the total deal value of $16 billion. The
year-on-year (y-o-y) exit value has Flipkart SoftBank 2500
Paytm SoftBank 1400
fallen to $1.4 billion for Q1 CY17
Flipkart Tencent, Others 1400
from $2.1 billion for the same quarter
Bharti Infratel KKR, CPPIB 952
last year. GlobalLogic CPPIB 720
IndoSpace Core CPPIB 500
With total exit deal values at $945 ICICI Lombard General Insurance Warburg Pincus, Others 383
million, Providence Equity Tata Technologies Warburg Pincus 360
Partners-Idea Cellular deal and the Source: Venture Intelligence Report
India’s textile industry is one of the One of the key reasons for the rise in INDIA’S EXPORTS
oldest and can be traced back to per unit realization in exports to the
centuries. It is estimated that the US despite the fall in exports of its Owing to these revivalistic policies,
textile sector contributes close to 15% Asian peers is due to the India’s exports of locally made retail
to India’s total exports. Besides, it is government’s policies on exports, and lifestyle products grew at a
one of those sectors that provides including a number of export compound annual growth rate
sizeable employment. promotion policies aimed at the (CAGR) of 10% from 2013 to 2016,
textile sector. mainly led by bedding, bath and home
The textile sector employs about 51 decor products, and textiles. The
million people directly, and 68 Most importantly, it has allowed government has set a target of US $45
million people indirectly. India’s 100% FDI in the Indian textile sector billion for 2017-18 for textile and
overall textile exports during under the automatic route. garment sector exports.
FY15-16 stood at US $40 billion. The
industry contributes approximately A few key initiatives announced in In the past three-and-a-half years
4% to India’s Gross Domestic the Union Budget 2017-18 to boost (calendar), even as countries like
Product (GDP) and 14% to overall the textiles sector are as under: China, Bangladesh and Vietnam have
Index of Industrial Production (IIP). been recording a decline in their per
1) Encourage new entrepreneurs to unit realization of apparel exports to
The textile and garment sector can be invest in sectors such as knitwear by the United States, India has been
divided into two broad segments – the increasing allocation of funds to successfully able to maintain the per
unorganized sector and the organized Mudra Bank from `1,36,000 crore unit realization.
sector. The unorganized sector (US $20.4 billion) to `2,44,000 crore
consists of handloom, handicrafts and (US $36.6 billion). According to data released by the
sericulture, which are operated on a Office of Textiles and Apparel
small scale and through traditional 2) Upgrade labour skills by allocating (OTEXA), US, the average
tools and methods. `2,200 crore (US $330 million). realization per unit of apparels
exported by India to the US has been
The organized sector mainly consists 3) Memorandum of Understanding in the range of $3.4 to $3.5 for the
of spinning, apparel and garments, (MoU) with 20 e-commerce past three-and-a-half years.
which use modern machinery and companies, aimed at providing a
employ techniques such as economies platform to artisans and weavers from In comparison with this, in the same
of scale. India in different handloom and period, the average realization per
handicraft clusters across the country unit of apparels exported by China
A review of the textile industry shows for selling their products directly to and Bangladesh fell to $2.3 and $2.6
that while on one hand there is a the consumer. from $2.7 and $3, respectively.
Catch-up Effect
In any period, the economies of countries that start off poor generally grow faster than the economies of countries that start
off rich. As a result, the national income of poor countries usually catches up with the national income of rich countries.
New technology may even allow developing countries to leap-frog over industrialized countries with older technology.
This, at least, is the traditional economic theory. In recent years, there has been considerable debate about the extent and
speed of convergence in reality.
One reason to expect catch-up is that workers in poor countries have little access to capital, so their productivity is often
low. Increasing the amount of capital at their disposal by only a small amount can produce huge gains in productivity.
Countries with lots of capital, and as a result higher levels of productivity, would enjoy a much smaller gain from a similar
increase in capital. This is one possible explanation for the much faster growth of Japan and Germany, compared with the
US and the UK, after the Second World War and the faster growth of several Asian ‘tigers’, compared with developed
countries, during the 1980s and most of the 1990s.
A NEW BENCHMARK
THE FINDINGS THE SOLUTION the apex bank’s policy repo rate are
better suited to serve the role of an
RBI’s internal study group has found Given the shortcomings discussed external benchmark.
that under the MCLR regime, banks here, the RBI study group has
are slow in passing benefits to recommended a switchover to an The T-Bill reflects the rate at which
customers. Further, the study group external benchmark in a time-bound the government borrows. CD rate is a
found that the MCLR system is manner. This is significant as the time deposit with banks. And
inconsistent among banks, thus lending rate will be benchmarked to repurchase rate or the repo rate is the
putting borrowers at a disadvantage. market rates. The RBI will take a final rate at which the RBI lends money to
view on the recommendations of the banks. It signals short-term interest
The transmission of interest rates on study group after seeking comments rates in the system.
outstanding loans to old customers from the public.
was significantly lower than on fresh According to the suggestion of the
loans. Banks secure their spread The study group has cited 13 possible study group, all floating rate loans
(margins) first before passing on the candidates as external benchmarks. from April ’18 can be based on one of
benefit to the customer. The study While the study said that no external the three external benchmarks that the
group found out that the spreads instrument in India met all the RBI selects.
charged by some banks seemed requirements of an ideal benchmark,
excessive and consistently large. 3 candidates from these 13 can be Outstanding loans can be switched
considered, they said. without any fees from March ’19. The
Further, the study group also found group has also suggested quarterly
that the MCLR regime is not in sync The study group of the RBI is of the interest rate resets as opposed to a
with global practices on pricing of view that the Treasury-Bill rate, the one-year reset as practised now for
bank loans. certificate of deposit (CD) rate and better monetary transmission.
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Disclaimer: Insurance is a subject matter of solicitation. Mutual Fund investments are subject to market risk. Please read the scheme related document carefully before investing. Please read the Do’s and Don’ts prescribed by Commodity Exchange before trading. The PMS Service is not offering for commodity segment. *Through Nirmal Bang Securities Pvt. Ltd. ^Distributors #Prepared by Research Analyst of Nirmal Bang Commodities Pvt. Ltd.
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After the implementation of GST, According to a Godrej official, in the However, major FMCG companies
In India the standards of corporate Analysis: The suggestion will prove The committee has recommended that
governance for listed entities are set expensive to the company as it will the related-party transactions (RPT)
by the Ministry of Corporate Affairs have to pay directors the sitting fees be strengthened. From once a year,
(MCA) through Companies Act, 2013 for attending board meets. Also, there the RTP should be disclosed on a
and SEBI through Clause 49 of listing is a dearth of quality independent half-yearly basis.
agreement that the company needs to directors in the market who can add
sign with the stock exchanges. value to the board. The purpose of the Analysis: Earlier many deals with
However, even with a robust institution of independent directors related parties used to go unnoticed.
The most intelligent strategy in Chess is to be ready with the next move. Similarly,
currency trading involves moves that are a combination of knowledge and skill, backed
by years of experience.
Currency Derivatives Trading with us keeps you a few steps ahead, always.
Registered Office: Nirmal Bang Securities Private Limited. 38-B, Khatau Building, 2nd Floor, Alkesh Dinesh Mody Marg, Fort, Mumbai - 400001. Tel: 3926 8600 / 01; Fax: 3926 8610
Disclaimer: Insurance is a subject matter of solicitation. Mutual Fund investments are subject to market risk. Please read the scheme related document carefully before investing. Please read the Do’s and Don’ts prescribed by Commodity Exchange before trading. Through Nirmal Bang Securities Pvt. Ltd. *Through Nirmal Bang Commodities Pvt. Ltd. #Distributors investment in securities is subject to market risk. investment in securities is subject to market risk
T
he Indian insurance prospects of life and general In the last financial year, the Indian
industry continues to lag insurance look good following the life insurance industry’s new business
behind its Asian and passage of new rules under the premiums grew by 26.13%, largely
global peers despite being Insurance Laws (Amendment) Act, due to the popularity of single
one of the fastest growing economies 2015. Further, deeper penetration of premium policies (both in individual
in the world. insurance among masses and rise in segment as well as group business).
equity markets are encouraging
However, things have started moving people to save more by going in for While general insurance companies’
in the right direction now. The insurance as an investment avenue. gross direct premiums were at `1.27
Owing to new rules, a surge in equity To address the need for custom-made The size of the Indian life insurance
markets and overall positive products and ensure prompt service, industry is at nearly `4.2 lakh crore
sentiments for the insurance industry, many private sector players have on a total-premium basis as of fiscal
life insurance as well as non-life entered the market in India. 2017. In terms of total premium, the
insurance, have started lining up their Indian life insurance industry is the
initial public offerings (IPOs). Innovative products, aggressive 10th largest market in the world and
marketing and effective distribution the fifth largest in Asia.
Till few days back, only one life have altered fledgling private
insurance company, that is, ICICI insurance companies, thus helping New premiums constituted 42% of
Prudential Life Insurance was listed sign up Indian customers rapidly than total premiums as of fiscal 2017. The
in India. But in the last one month, expected. Private sector players are industry’s assets under management
ICICI Lombard General Insurance likely to play an increasingly (AUM) grew at a compound annual
and SBI Life have been listed on the important role in the growth of the growth rate (CAGR) of 19% in fiscal
Indian stock exchanges. insurance sector in the near future. 2001 to fiscal 2017 to `30 lakh crore.
Soon New India Assurance, General But changes in unit linked insurance India’s life insurance penetration
Insurance Corporation of India (GIC plans (ULIPs) and passage of the stood at 2.7% in 2016 compared with
Re), Reliance General Insurance and much delayed bill on foreign direct 4.4% in 2010. Among Asian
HDFC Standard Life Insurance may investment (FDI) has been passed and countries, life insurance sector’s
hit the equity markets and collect activity levels are high. The most penetration in Thailand, Singapore
`25,000 crore to `35,000 crore important piece of regulation ‘FDI in and South Korea was at 3.7%, 5.5%,
through IPOs. Insurance’ has finally seen the light of and 7.4%, respectively, in 2016. This
the day post 2014, after being in the suggests the untapped potential of the
This article sheds light on the Indian making for years. This has brought Indian life insurance market.
insurance industry and how IPOs much-needed speed in the insurance
would change the face of this sector. industry. Following this But things are set to change for the
announcement, many foreign players better. After ICICI Life Insurance,
STORY SO FAR increased their stake in their Indian SBI Life is the second life insurance
joint ventures. player to be listed on Indian bourses.
Though the Indian insurance industry The company is now valued at around
is a few decades old, we will look at Multiple valuation disclosures, which `68,000 crore. While ICICI
the sector since the year 2000 when had been a bane for investors for Prudential Life Insurance currently
the sector was opened up to private years, is now finally being addressed. has a market cap of over `58,000
players for business. Over the past few years, investors crore, HDFC Standard Life is also
were grappling with a slew of planning to come out with its IPO in
Since then, the sector has grown disclosures under different valuation the latter part of this financial year.
immensely. Competition among methods adopted by select players.
players has provided consumers with Potential listings would help Indian
a never-before-seen range of products Potential listings will be a good insurers provide clarity, improve trust
and providers, and also enhanced beginning and it will enable investors and brand value, and retain talent.
service levels markedly. to do meaningful comparisons.
Listings, which prescribe a uniform Insurers need to seek approval from
Both life and non-life insurance method of disclosures and calculating the IRDAI. Companies wishing to list
sectors in India, which were embedded value, will enable more will have to seek approval from
nationalized in the 1950s and 1960s, meaningful comparisons across IRDAI before approaching the
respectively, were liberalized in the insurance players. This, in turn, will markets regulator Securities and
1990s. Since the formation of the bring in more transparency and Exchange Board of India (SEBI).
There is no shortcut to reach your financial goals. But there is always a proper
path. We help simplify the path for you through in-depth research backed by
decades of valuable experience in the industry.
Disclaimer : Insurance is a subject matter of solicitation .mutual fund Investments are subject to market risk. ‘investment in securities/ Commodities market are subject to market risks, read all
the related documents carefully before investing’ Nirmal bang securities pvt.ltd. Please read the Do’s and Don’ts prescribed by Commodity Exchange Before trading. The PMS Service is not
offering for commodity Segment *Nirmal bang Commodities Pvt ltd #Distributors. “The securities quoted are exemplary and are not recommendatory”
MCX SEBI No INZ000043630,
Buckfast Recommendations
Finance is a maze of umpteen possibilities and choices. And it is easy for individuals to lose their
way in this tangle. In such a scenario, an expert comes handy. For, he alone can wade through
the enigmatic world of finance and simplify choices for investors.
Buckfast Research, the research arm of Buckfast Financial Advisory Services Pvt Ltd,
recommends mutual fund schemes that can be considered by investors.
A number of parameters have been taken into consideration while making the
recommendations. Some of the guidelines are track record of the scheme and consistency, risks
associated with the scheme, fund house pedigree and credentials of the fund manager.
However, there is no specific time frame for the investment as such. It depends entirely on an
investor’s objectives, investment timeline, risk tolerance and type of scheme he/she wishes to
invest in. By and large, equity schemes are suggested with a long-term investment horizon.
Disclaimer
Mutual Fund Investments are subject to market risks. Please read the offer document carefully before investing.
Source: ACE MF, NAV as on 10th Oct ’17.
SIP returns as on 30th Sept ’17. M=Months, Y=Year, D=Days
Past performance is no guarantee of future performance.
Returns are of Growth option of Regular plans
Returns which are below 1 year period are Annualized Returns
Diversified Funds
Historic Return (%)
SCHEME NAME NAV 1 Year 3 Years 5 Years 7 Years 10 Years AUM (Cr)
Lumpsum
Axis Focused 25 Fund 24.93 22.75 18.17 17.94 - - 1981
MOSt Focused Multicap 35 Fund 25.86 25.35 24.91 - - - 9179
L&T India Spl. Situations Fund 47.57 23.20 15.31 18.98 13.06 11.62 1090
Principal Growth Fund 137.65 22.88 16.84 21.34 13.16 8.10 503
SIP
Axis Focused 25 Fund 24.93 29.92 18.67 18.82 - - 1981
MOSt Focused Multicap 35 Fund 25.86 28.63 22.65 - - - 9179
L&T India Spl. Situations Fund 47.57 21.84 15.49 18.51 17.47 16.49 1090
Principal Growth Fund 137.65 25.83 18.96 21.00 19.32 15.95 503
HDFC Equity Savings Fund 34.19 8.18 12.25 10.69 10.71 3046
Reliance Equity Savings Fund 12.30 13.66 11.99 - - 1328
DSPBR Equity Savings Fund 12.12 11.67 9.19 - - 1218
Principal Equity Savings Fund 33.87 11.08 8.66 8.33 7.52 23
ICICI Pru Long Term Plan 21.34 2.05 10.63 8.10 11.64 11.64 3134
UTI Dynamic Bond Fund 19.90 2.18 8.41 8.66 10.69 10.12 1686
Franklin India IBA 59.53 6.95 9.07 8.71 9.39 9.40 969
SBI Regular Savings Fund 29.59 6.02 9.46 10.00 10.63 10.09 1232
Accrual Funds
Historic Return (%)
SCHEME NAME NAV AUM (Cr)
3 month 6 month 1 Year 3 Years 5 Years
Baroda Pioneer Credit Opp Fund 13.11 7.52 9.28 9.07 - - 926
BOI AXA Corporate Credit Spectrum Fund 12.88 7.92 9.83 9.40 - - 1325
Franklin India Dynamic Accrual Fund 59.60 8.37 9.75 9.47 10.63 9.33 2752
Aditya Birla SL Corp Bond Fund 12.59 6.54 9.97 8.82 - - 3855
Aditya Birla SL Short Term Fund 64.85 2.55 6.71 8.23 7.40 9.25 19387
Franklin India ST Income Plan 3562.28 5.62 8.80 10.04 9.62 9.45 8705
HDFC Regular Savings Fund 33.70 4.07 6.56 7.56 7.51 9.44 5391
UTI Banking & PSU Debt Fund 13.87 3.52 6.37 7.64 7.89 9.19 991
Aditya Birla SL Savings Fund 331.59 4.49 6.94 7.84 7.46 8.74 22879
Franklin India Ultra Short Bond Fund-Super Inst 23.25 6.39 7.92 8.45 8.65 9.45 11065
ICICI Pru Flexible Income Plan 323.50 5.29 7.01 7.57 7.58 8.63 23487
L&T FRF 16.64 5.86 7.31 7.81 7.75 8.51 564
Liquid Funds
Historic Return (%)
SCHEME NAME NAV AUM (Cr)
3 month 6 month 1 Year 3 Years 5 Years
Aditya Birla SL FRF-Short Term Plan 223.86 6.53 6.64 6.79 7.78 8.37 8169
Franklin India TMA-Super Inst 2510.94 6.41 6.59 6.75 7.81 8.39 3230
Kotak Floater-ST 2756.25 6.45 6.55 6.75 7.77 8.34 11479
Axis Liquid Fund 1860.65 6.48 6.57 6.77 7.73 8.29 16680
Arbitrage Funds
Historic Return (%)
SCHEME NAME NAV AUM (Cr)
3 month 1 Year 3 Years 5 Years
I
ndian equity markets seem to participants are advised to stay light rollover) and Telecom (85.72% - long
be celebrating Diwali early with positions. rollover) saw much higher rollovers
this year, with the Nifty index compared to the same day of the
hitting a new all-time high of Technically, the overall view is previous expiry.
10,251.85 in its trade on 17th positive as the Nifty is under a strong
October. The Nifty climbed 5.83%, or momentum. The Nifty has a resist- While select stocks from Technology,
187.75 points to 10,251.85 in October ance at 10,380/ 10,450 levels, Fertilizers, FMCG and Banking
from 9,687 level on 28th Sept ’17. whereas it has support on the down- sectors are expected to outperform,
Looking at the momemtum of the side in the 10,000-9,940 range. some stocks from Automobile and
Nifty, there is a high probability that Market participants should be stock- Capital Goods sectors are likely to
the Nifty would test the 10,380/ specific, and follow the trend with a underperform in this expiry.
10,450 levels in a couple of weeks, trail stop loss level till it reverses from
only if it sustains above the 10,000- trading perspectives. India VIX, which measures the imme-
9,940 range. diate 30-day volatility in the market,
On the Nifty Options front for the remained in the range of 11-13 in
Technically, the Nifty is trading in an October series, the highest Open October. Going forward, VIX is likely
upward sloping channel, indicating a Interest build up is witnessed near to remain at elevated levels.
positive view. The channel indicates 10,200 and 10,000 Put strikes,
that the Nifty has a strong support at whereas on the Call side, it is The Put Call Ratio-Open Interest
the 9,800 level. As long as it sustains observed at the 10,200 and 10,500 (PCR-OI) for Nifty Options has been
above the 9,800 mark, the uptrend strikes. The market is likely to remain in the range of 1.2-1.70 in the month
will remain intact. bullish towards end October and early of October. Going forward, it may
November with bouts of selling remain bullish, implying a positive
October will be a crucial month given pressure near resistances. undertone in the markets.
the fact that quarterly earnings results
of India Inc are likely to be The September expiry has seen The market is likely to remain bullish
announced. This event is likely to higher-than-average rollovers in Nifty towards October end and early
have a bearing on the Indian markets. (70%) and lower-than-average November with bouts of selling
It is also important to note that the rollovers in Bank Nifty (65%) with a pressure near resistances. The 10,000
Nifty is trading at an all-time high. positive cost of carry, indicating a and 10,200 levels may remain strong
Hence, we may witness some profit mixed bias. Technology (86.95% - supports, while 10,300 and 10,500
booking at higher levels. So, market long rollover), FMCG (85.59% - long levels may see supply pressurE.
A
balanced diet coupled successful investing too. have made.
with regular exercise is
the key to a healthy life. Investing regularly and not Surely many investors can relate to
Each one of us very well impulsively is the secret to amassing this scenario wherein they randomly
knows and understands this fact, yet wealth in the long term for a secured invest in ELSS or any other
how of many of us are disciplined life. Yet, we tend to be tardy. We tax-saving product for the purpose of
enough to follow these key tenets. procrastinate. And, at times, even saving taxes at the end of the financial
The same principle applies to forget about the investment plans we year not realizing that this can be
The frequency could be weekly, BENEFITS OF SIPs To illustrate, Rohan has decided to
monthly, quarterly or half yearly. So invest `1,000 every month for a
one could decide to invest an amount Rupee Cost Averaging period of six months. In month one, as
as low as `1,000 in a mutual fund the NAV was `10, he was allocated
scheme on the 1st of every month for Rupee cost averaging doesn’t 100 units.
a period of 5 years, for instance. guarantee profits or protect against
short term losses. However, because On account of the increase in NAV in
The concept is similar to that of of the discipline SIPs bring to month two, the allocated units
Equated Monthly Installments investment, this investment tool increased to 96.15. In month 4, the
(EMIs). However, the key difference ensures that you do not avoid markets NAV fell to `9.
is that SIPs are directed towards when prices are down.
building wealth, while EMIs are used Rohan benefited from this correction
to pay off debts. Markets tend to be cyclical and by and was allocated `111.11 units. His
staying invested over a longer time average cost at the end of month 6
OPERATING MECHANISM horizon, you tend to benefit when the was `9.795, lower than the current
prices rebound. NAV of `10.2, which means Rohan’s
An investor needs to give his/her investment has appreciated over the
bank, a mandate or an instruction to Timing The Markets 6-month time frame.
allow the mutual fund house to debit
from the account a pre-determined This is one of the most frequently Imagine a situation where Rohan
amount at a pre-determined frequency debated topics in investing. When to invested a lump sum amount of
towards the chosen investment invest in the markets is a million `6,000 in month 2, he would be
product, that is, an SIP. dollar question. Each one of us wants allocated units at the highest cost and
to buy cheap to maximize returns. would end up making losses.
As in the above example, the mutual
fund house will debit the investor’s Experts believe that timing the market On the other hand, if he had invested
account on the 1st of every month and is the toughest job even for financial in month 4, he would currently have
allocate units of the scheme in which industry experts let alone laymen like been sitting on a decent appreciation.
the investor wants to invest. If the Net us! It is not always possible to predict But human behaviour is such that
Asset Value (NAV) of the scheme is market movements as multiple factors when markets correct, we tend to sit
Altruism
It is often alleged that altruism is inconsistent with economic rationality, which assumes that people behave selfishly.
Certainly, much economic analysis is concerned with how individuals behave, and homo economicus (economic man) is
usually assumed to act in his or her self-interest. However, self-interest does not necessarily mean selfish. Some economic
models in the field of behavioural economics assume that self-interested individuals behave altruistically because they get
some benefit, or utility, from doing so. For instance, it may make them feel better about themselves, or be a useful
insurance policy against social unrest. Some economic models go further and relax the traditional assumption of fully
rational behaviour by simply assuming that people sometimes behave altruistically, even if this may be against their
self-interest. Either way, there is much economic literature about charity, international aid, public spending and
redistributive taxation.
Snake: Snake is an arrangement in which currencies are pegged to each other but left free to float as a group against the
US dollar. It has been named ‘snake’ for the graph that the limits of variation of a currency would follow over time.
Snake In The Tunnel: The ‘snake in the tunnel’ was the first attempt at European monetary cooperation in the 1970s,
aiming at limiting fluctuations between different European currencies. It was an attempt at creating a single currency band
for the European Economic Community (EEC), essentially pegging all the EEC currencies to one another. With the failure
of the Bretton Woods system with the Nixon shock in 1971, the Smithsonian agreement set bands of plus/minus 2.25%
for currencies to move relative to their central rate against the US dollar. This provided a tunnel in which European
currencies could trade. However, in practice, it implied larger bands in which they could move against each other.The
tunnel collapsed in 1973 when the US dollar floated freely. The snake proved unsustainable, with several currencies
leaving and in some cases rejoining.
What Is The New Circular On Mutual Funds? What Is The Definition For Large-, Mid- And
Small-Cap?
The circular from SEBI says that fund houses have to
re-categorize existing schemes based on investment SEBI has defined what constitutes a large-, mid- or
strategies. SEBI has offered few buckets under which the small-cap fund. The stocks of the top 100 companies by
schemes can be categorized. market value will be classified as large-caps. Those
companies ranked between 101 and 250 will be termed as
Which Are These Buckets? mid-caps, and stocks of firms beyond top 250 in terms of
market cap will be categorized as small-caps.
At the broadest level, existing mutual fund schemes will
now be classified into five broad categories: equity, debt, What Was The Rationale Behind The Review By
hybrid, solution-oriented, and others. Index funds, fund of SEBI?
funds and sector or thematic schemes will be separate from
the above schemes. Over the years, picking a mutual fund scheme was
becoming an onerous task. There was a problem of plenty.
What Is The Sub-Categorization Within The Broad The 45 odd fund houses offered around 2,000 schemes -
Category? more than 400 equity funds, around 300 debt schemes and
around 426 hybrid schemes, and more than 800 fixed
SEBI has also offered sub-categorization within the broad maturity plans.
scheme category. Equity schemes will have 10
sub-categories. Debt and hybrid schemes will similarly be So, What Is The Issue?
grouped into 16 and six sub-categories, respectively.
Many fund houses have multiple schemes within the same
There will be two categories of solutions-based funds (one category. Mandates of many schemes overlapped. Fund
each for retirement planning and children’s future) and one managers used to alter their investing styles. Comparison
category each for exchange-traded funds (ETFs) and fund with peers was difficult due to non-standardized schemes
of funds (FOFs). So, in all there will be 36 categories. offered by various fund houses.
SEBI has asked fund houses to have just one scheme per
category. SEBI has properly defined each category to clear Are There Any Examples?
To start with, fund houses will respond individually to What Would The Committee Review?
SEBI within 2 months with a plan of action as to how they
will consolidate their schemes. SEBI will then examine The committee will assess existing market intermediaries
each fund house’s plan and respond to them. like exchanges, depositories and clearing corporations.
The committee will also identify areas of review in
On SEBI’s approval, fund houses would have a window of regulation of these entities. The committee will also
three months to carry out the necessary changes. This identify areas of improvement of systems, procedures and
means that by early to mid-next year, the mutual fund practices and make recommendations.
industry will look different.
What Is The Genesis Behind The Setting Up Of Such A
How Will The New Rules Help Investors? Committee?
The new rules will ensure standardization of products. An In February this year, SEBI had proposed a review of
investor will be able to make a fair comparison of various regulations related to ownership and governance of market
schemes. The fund manager will not be able to drift from infrastructure institutions.
its core investment mandate. The new rules will improve
transparency and help investors choose the apt product. After getting feedback from the market on various issues
related to MIIs, SEBI has now decided to form a
Is The Move Disruptive? committee to review these norms. The review is in line
with the recommendations of the Bimal Jalan Committee,
Although the new regulations by the markets regulator will which tabled its report in 2012 and asked the regulator to
ensure that the industry follows best practice, there are a conduct a review every five years.
few challenges. As schemes merge, assets under
management (AUM) of some schemes will sharply Why Is This Review On MIIs Important?
increase. This could hurt the scheme’s performance as the
base number of investors will increase. After listing of Multi-Commodity Exchange Ltd, Bombay
Stock Exchange (BSE) and Central Depository Services
Some gains could also be lost as the fund will have to (CDSL), other MIIs like NSE are in plans to get listed. An
rebalance or churn the portfolio to ensure that the fund efficient regulatory mechanism is important to safeguard
aligns with new category norms. Now, with limited investors’ interests. The review is also significant given the
flexibility to stray into another segment, the new rules can recent technological glitches in the exchanges spacE.