SEPTEMBER ALASKA SURVEY RESULTS

Conducted by Ivan Moore Research, Anchorage, Alaska

Fielding dates – September 23-27, 2010

Statewide Alaska
Adults 18+
750 sample - 450 landline, 300 cellphone
MOE: +3.7%

Subsample: Registered and likely General voters

573 sample
MOE: +4.1%

For interviews, please contact Ivan Moore at...

ivan@ivanmooreresearch.com
CONGRESS:

Q: If the 2010 General Election for U.S. Congress was held today and the
candidates were... for whom would you vote for U.S. Congress?

Don Young, Republican 64.5%

Harry Crawford, Democrat 31.7%
Undecided 3.8%

GOVERNOR:

Q: If the 2010 General Election for Alaska Governor was held today and the
candidates were... for whom would you vote for Governor?

Sean Parnell, Republican 53.1%

Ethan Berkowitz, Democrat 34.8%
Other 6.3%
Undecided 5.8%

U.S. SENATE:

Q: If the 2010 General Election for U.S. Senate was held today and the
candidates were... for whom would you vote for U.S. Senate?

(NOTE: No mention is made of Lisa Murkowski as a candidate in this question.)

Joe Miller, Republican 43.2%

Scott McAdams, Democrat 27.8%
Frederick Haase, Libertarian 1.8%
Lisa Murkowski (volunteered) 18.0%
Undecided 9.2%
Follow-up question asked of the 82% who did not volunteer Lisa Murkowski:

Q: As you may know, Lisa Murkowski is running a write-in campaign for U.S.
Senate. Knowing this, would your vote for U.S. Senate stay the same or would
you write in Lisa Murkowski?

Stay the same 55.1%

Write in Lisa Murkowski 31.1%
Not sure 13.8%

COMPUTED RESULT – Initial vote question revised with prompted Lisa

Murkowski votes...

Joe Miller, Republican 35.8%

Scott McAdams, Democrat 13.7%
Frederick Haase, Libertarian 1.5%
Lisa Murkowski (volunteered) 43.5%
Undecided 5.5%

PUBLISHED COMMENTARY – Anchorage Press, September 30, 2010

“If the Lisa voters in this second question have their first vote changed to
reflect their subsequent choice, we see this: Joe Miller goes down from 43
percent to 36; Scott McAdams goes down from 28 percent to 14; and Lisa
Murkowski goes up from 18 percent to 43. A nearly 8 point lead. She takes
twice as many votes from McAdams, whose chances of winning frankly
disappear.

Now, the reality of the situation is that neither of these results is going to be
correct. The first should be perceived as a minimum for Lisa, the latter a
maximum. The reality lies somewhere in between… the question is where?
Personally, I think the second measure is what will happen in an ideal,
impediment-less world, and should be adjusted downwards by what we’d
reasonably expect the attritional effects of the write-in to be. I have always
maintained these will be relatively minimal, maybe not much more than a
few percent of people who somehow remain unaware come election day
that Lisa is an option, or get her name wrong, or don’t fill in the oval, or
decide they can’t be bothered to write a name.”

Ivan Moore – www.anchoragepress.com