YEARBOOK
2018
Armaments,
Disarmament and
International
Security
Summary
STOCKHOLM INTERNATIONAL
PEACE RESEARCH INSTITUTE
SIPRI is an independent international institute dedicated to research into conflict,
armaments, arms control and disarmament. Established in 1966, SIPRI provides data,
analysis and recommendations, based on open sources, to policymakers, researchers,
media and the interested public.
CONTENTS
1. Introduction 1
4. Military expenditure 6
5. International arms transfers and developments in arms production 8
6. World nuclear forces 10
Annexes 18
introduction 1
2. ARMED CONFLICTS AND PEACE Asia and Oceania
PROCESSES Five countries in Asia and Oceania were
In contrast to historical patterns, involved in active armed conflicts in 2017:
contemporary armed conflicts tend to be Afghanistan, India, Myanmar, Pakistan
concentrated in urban areas and affect and the Philippines. In Myanmar, the
more civilians in terms of casualties than forced displacement of the Rohingya
the military. In the first 11 months of 2017 at caused spillover effects in Bangladesh,
least 15 399 civilians were killed by while in other places such as the
explosive weapons, the vast majority in Philippines, state security forces
cities, which is an increase of 42 per cent committed widespread violence with
compared with 2016. The number of impunity. In Afghanistan and the
forcibly displaced people worldwide at the Philippines, the Islamic State (IS) is a
end of 2016 was 65.6 million, and it seems growing threat, while other parts of Asia
likely that these record numbers continued and Oceania continued to be affected by
into 2017, especially in light of a new instability from a variety of causes. Most
displacement crisis in Myanmar and notably, tensions are rising in North East
protracted displacement crises in many Asia, which is one of the world’s most
other places, including Afghanistan, militarized regions, chiefly due to the
Central America, the Democratic Republic nuclear weapon and ballistic missile
of the Congo (DRC), Somalia, South Sudan, programmes of North Korea. On a more
Syria and Yemen. Armed conflicts also positive note, ongoing peace processes in
contributed to increased food insecurity in Nepal and Sri Lanka contributed to
2017, with seven countries recording crisis growing stability in those two countries.
or emergency levels of food insecurity in at
Europe
least a quarter of their people: Afghanistan,
the Central African Republic (CAR), Two armed conflicts were active in Europe
Lebanon, Somalia, South Sudan, Syria and in 2017: in Nagorno-Karabakh (involving
Yemen. Armenia and Azerbaijan) and in Ukraine.
Some unresolved conflicts, although
The Americas
inactive, seemed as intractable as ever:
In the Americas, there were positive signs Cyprus, Georgia (Abkhazia and South
that the ongoing peace process in Colombia Ossetia), Moldova (Trans-Dniester) and
might soon bring the only active armed Kosovo. In the background, tensions
conflict in the western hemisphere to a remained heightened between Russia and
close. However, in several countries in members of the North Atlantic Treaty
Central and South America (including El Organization (NATO) and the West in
Salvador, Mexico and Paraguay) the levels general, and there were allegations of
of political and criminal violence remained Russian interference in Western domestic
high. Cities in the Americas are some of the politics. European states also continued to
world’s most dangerous, and there is an prioritize combating terrorism.
escalating crisis of forced displacement
especially from northern Central America.
40
the General Assembly and the Security
Council. At times, this discussion was
30
20
overshadowed by two other developments:
10
0
the greater insecurity of personnel
2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017
deployed in UN peace operations, and the
Conducting organization: United Nations Regional organization or alliance Ad hoc coalition
efforts by the administration of United
States President Donald J. Trump to
challenge for the UN Multidimensional
drastically reduce the UN peacekeeping
Integrated Stabilization Mission in Mali
budget.
(MINUSMA). In 2017, however, the UN
In 2017, UN peace operations, like
Multidimensional Integrated Stabilization
African peace operations, could no longer
Mission in the Central African Republic
be certain of ‘predictable and sustainable
(MINUSCA) and the UN Stabilization
funding’. The budget cuts sought by the
Mission in the Democratic Republic of the
Trump administration, in particular, meant
Congo (MONUSCO) also faced substantial
that the UN had to rethink its strategy in
losses. A particular low point was the
many operations. A number of finance-
attack on a MONUSCO Company Operating
contributing countries hoped that these
Base at Semuliki, North Kivu, on
budget cuts might be used pragmatically to
7 December, in which 15 Tanzanian
strengthen peacekeeping reform. However,
peacekeepers were killed and at least
the effects of ‘salami-slicing tactics’ on
53 injured.
some operations, such as MONUSCO, and
Overall, the UN witnessed a dramatic
of more substantial drawdowns in other
escalation in fatalities linked to hostile
operations, such as the African Union/UN
acts—in both absolute terms (from 34 in
Hybrid Operation in Darfur (UNAMID),
2016 to 61 in 2017) and as a ratio of the
might put peacekeepers more at risk and
number of personnel deployed (from 0.31 to
leave populations more vulnerable. If so, it
0.61 per 1000). An independent review into
raises the question: Is it realistic to expect
the security of peacekeepers, led by
the UN to continue to do more with less,
Lieutenant General Carlos Alberto dos
Santos Cruz, left one main question •
and is it worth taking the risk?
unanswered: How would the UN generate
the agile and mobile forces needed for the
more robust and proactive force posture
required to deal with these more
challenging mission environments?
World
North Africa
Sub-Saharan Africa
Central America and the Caribbean
North America
South America
Central and South Asia
East Asia
Oceania
South East Asia
Central Europe
Eastern Europe
Western Europe
assessment of the trend in the price of oil without the knowledge of the parliament or
compared with the trend in military the finance ministry to pay for arms
spending and debt as a share of GDP for purchases and other activities. Off-budget
15 oil export-dependent countries—Algeria, funds offer lucrative opportunities for self-
Angola, Azerbaijan, Ecuador, Iran, Iraq, enrichment to public officials and
Kazakhstan, Kuwait, Mexico, Nigeria, businesses involved in the decision-making
Norway, Russia, Saudi Arabia, South Sudan processes. In the cases of Venezuela and
and Venezuela—showed that when oil Peru, such funding amounted to billions of
revenue fell, alternative forms of finance dollars of spending, often without
were required and found. For these accountability or oversight.
15 countries, military expenditure between Military expenditure transparency at the
2014 and 2017 decreased by an average of international level remains a concern,
16 per cent, but the price of oil dropped by specifically in the context of the United
over 45 per cent and the average increase in Nations Report on Military Expenditures.
total debt as a share of GDP was around By 31 July 2017, at least 42 states had
154 per cent. The differences between submitted a report to the UN on their
revenue and expenditure in these countries military spending in 2016. No submission
have mostly been funded through debt. had been received from any state in Africa
or the Middle East or from four of the five
Transparency in military expenditure
largest military spenders in the world: the
SIPRI made major steps in 2017 to improve USA, China, Saudi Arabia and India.
transparency in military expenditure by Continued low participation in, and the
mapping off-budget funding in Peru and lack of comprehensiveness of, the UN
Venezuela. Off-budget spending, which is reporting mechanism puts into question its
not part of the state budget and is often future viability. •
non-transparent, is usually earned from
natural resource exports. It may be used
90
and imports.
60
30
0
92 94 9 6 9 8 00 02 04 06 08 10 12 14 16
19 19 19 19 20 20 20 20 20 20 20 20 20
50
(billions of trend-indicator values)
40
Volume of arms transfers
30
20
10
0
50 5 5 6 0 65 70 975 980 985 990 995 000 005 010 17
19 19 19 19 19 1 1 1 1 1 2 2 2 20
The financial value of states’ arms 2016. The combined arms sales of Russian
exports, 2016* companies continued to grow in 2016,
while there were mixed trends in arms
While SIPRI data on arms transfers does
sales for the arms producers in countries
not represent their financial value, many
with emerging arms industries and other
arms-exporting countries publish figures
countries with established arms industries.
on the financial value of their arms
Major drivers for the growth in arms sales
exports. Based on such data, SIPRI
of the Top 100 include international
estimates the total value of the global arms
tensions and armed conflict on the demand
trade in 2016 to have been at least
side and the implementation of military
$88.4 billion.
industrialization strategies at the national
Arms production and military services level on the supply side. Other key causes of
changes can be company mergers,
The SIPRI Top 100 arms-producing and
acquisitions and divestments.
military services companies ranks the
largest companies in the arms industry
*The latest year for which data is
(outside China) by their sales, both
domestic and for export. The total sales of •
available.
the SIPRI Top 100 for 2016* totalled almost
$375 billion, a 1.9 per cent increase
compared with 2015. This was the first
year of increase since the peak of 2010. The
rise is mainly attributable to the overall
increase in the arms sales of US-based
companies, which dominate the Top 100.
Taken together, the arms sales of West
European arms producers were stable in
There was important new momentum Iran continued to implement the Joint
behind global efforts to promote nuclear Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA) to
disarmament and non-proliferation in limit its nuclear programme in 2017. The
JCPOA was agreed in July 2015 between Iran
2017.
and the E3/EU+3, which refers to three
Treaty on the Prohibition of Nuclear member states of the European Union (EU)—
France, Germany and the United Kingdom,
Weapons
known as the E3—as well as China, Russia
The year was marked by the negotiation and the USA. During the year, however,
and opening for signature of the Treaty on political tensions between Iran and the USA
the Prohibition of Nuclear Weapons threatened to undermine the agreement. In
October, US President Donald J. Trump
(TPNW). The treaty is the first legally
refused to certify that the continued lifting of
binding international agreement to
US sanctions on Iran was proportional to
comprehensively prohibit nuclear Iran’s actions under the JCPOA—a decision
weapons, with the ultimate goal of their that under US law triggered a 60-day review
total elimination. The opening of period for the US Congress to decide whether
negotiations on the treaty had been to reimpose the sanctions. Although the
mandated by a United Nations General Congress did not subsequently decide to do
so, Trump’s decertification decision put the
Assembly resolution at the end of 2016,
USA at odds with all the other signatories of
which had in turn been motivated by the
the JCPOA.
growing international awareness of the
devastating humanitarian consequences of
defined over time in order to prevent the
any use of nuclear weapons. These steps
fragmentation of nuclear disarmament
reflected the frustration of many non-
efforts.
nuclear weapon states that the nuclear
weapon states were not taking seriously Russian–US nuclear arms control
their obligation under the 1968 Treaty on
Russia and the United States continued to
the Non-Proliferation of Nuclear Weapons
implement the 2010 Treaty on Measures
(Non-Proliferation Treaty, NPT) to pursue
for the Further Reduction and Limitation
nuclear disarmament. While proponents of
of Strategic Offensive Arms (New START),
the TPNW acknowledged that it would
which places numerical limits on their
have no immediate impact on existing
strategic nuclear forces. However, the
nuclear arsenals, they highlighted its long-
prospects for sustaining the progress made
term normative impact—it would serve to
in Russian–US nuclear arms control since
delegitimize and stigmatize nuclear
the end of the cold war appeared to be
weapons and thereby contribute to
increasingly in doubt. Neither Russia nor
achieving the ultimate goal of nuclear
the USA indicated that it would agree to
disarmament. At the same time, there was
extend New START before its scheduled
a recognition during 2017 that the
expiration in 2021. They also showed little
relationship between the TPNW, the NPT
interest in negotiating deeper reductions in
and related agreements would have to be
The third conference of ATT states parties current political dynamics also place
took place in Geneva, Switzerland, in significant obstacles in the way of further
September 2017. While the conference took increases in the number of states parties.
a number of key decisions, the tensions
Multilateral arms embargoes
between states parties and the community
of NGOs that supported the creation of the Thirty-five multilateral arms embargoes
ATT were again on display. Moreover, even were in force in 2017: 13 imposed by the UN,
though the number of states parties to the 21 by the European Union (EU) and 1 by the
treaty continued to increase, the levels of League of Arab States. Of the EU’s
compliance with reporting and funding 21 embargoes, 9 implemented UN arms
obligations continued to fall short in several embargoes directly, 3 were similar to UN
areas. Efforts to increase the number of embargoes but differed in geographical
states parties have focused on Asia in scope or the types of weapon covered, and
recent years and the region faces a number 9 had no UN counterpart. Most of these
of the security challenges that the ATT is embargoes only covered conventional arms.
intended to address. However, the region’s However, the UN and EU embargoes on
Gives the annual military spending of countries since 1949, allowing comparison of
countries’ military spending in local currency at current prices; in US dollars at constant
prices and exchange rates; and as a share of gross domestic product.
Contains annual data on total revenue and revenue from arms sales and military services
since 2002 for the 100 companies with the highest arms sales in the world (with the
exception of Chinese companies).
Shows all international transfers of major conventional arms since 1950, the most
comprehensive publicly available source of information on international arms transfers.
Gives information on all arms embargoes that have been implemented by an international
organization, such as the European Union or the United Nations, or by a group of nations. All
embargoes that are in force, or have been in force since 1998, are included.
Provides links to all publicly accessible national reports on arms exports and is constantly
updated to include links to newly published national reports on arms exports.
Offers information on all UN and non-UN peace operations conducted since 2000, including
location, dates of deployment and operation, mandate, participating countries, number of
personnel, costs and fatalities.
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STOCKHOLM INTERNATIONAL
PEACE RESEARCH INSTITUTE
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