Atmospheric Research 122 (2013) 183–198

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Atmospheric Research
journal homepage: www.elsevier.com/locate/atmos

Synoptic environment, mesoscale configurations and forecast parameters for

hailstorms in Southwestern Europe
A. Merino ⁎, E. García-Ortega, L. López, J.L. Sánchez, A.M. Guerrero-Higueras
Instituto de Medio Ambiente, Universidad de León, León, Spain

a r t i c l e i n f o a b s t r a c t

Article history: Forecasting hailstorms is an important challenge. Improving these forecasts is of vital importance
Received 25 July 2012 to reduce the risks that this phenomenon causes to the environment and the population. This
Received in revised form 17 September 2012 paper presents a methodology for the characterization of hailstorms in different scales by means
Accepted 10 October 2012 of: the definition of the synoptic environment favorable to convection, the establishment of
mesoscale configurations on hailstorm days, and an analysis of prediction parameters for the
Keywords: presence of hail. Simulations with the WRF model were done for 100 study days in which
Hailstorm forecast hailstorms were produced in the Middle Ebro Valley. The synoptic environment was defined from
WRF the average geopotential and temperature fields at 500 hPa. Using multivariate techniques of the
Cluster analysis
Principal Component Analysis in T-Mode and a Cluster Analysis, four mesoscale configurations
Deep convection
were defined for the fields of convective instability, water vapor flux divergence and wind flow
and humidity at low layers. Finally, the study included several hail forecast parameters: CAPE,
Storm Relative Helicity between 0 and 3 km (SRH0–3), Energy–Helicity Index (EHI) and Showalter
Index (SI); making a comparison between hail/hail-free grid points, which allowed us to
determine their values and thresholds in order to discern the presence of hail within convective
precipitation areas. The analysis, along with these three basic ingredients, provides a very useful
tool that allows for a good approximation for predicting storms with hail in the study area.
© 2012 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Contents

1. Introduction . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 184
2. Methodology and data bases . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 185
2.1. Numerical simulations . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 186
2.2. Statistical analysis . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 186
2.3. Ground measurements . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 186
2.4. Hail forecast parameters . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 187
3. Convective precipitation in the MEV . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 187
3.1. Synoptic environment . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 187
3.2. Distribution of convective precipitation . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 187
4. Establishment of mesoscale configurations . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 189
4.1. Cluster 1 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 189
4.2. Cluster 2 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 189
4.3. Cluster 3 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 191

⁎ Corresponding author.
E-mail address: amers@unileon.es (A. Merino).

0169-8095/$ – see front matter © 2012 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.
http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.atmosres.2012.10.021
184 A. Merino et al. / Atmospheric Research 122 (2013) 183–198

4.4. Cluster 4 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 191

4.5. Hailpad data in cluster classification . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 191
5. Hail forecast parameters . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 191
6. Conclusions . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 195
Acknowledgments . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 197
References . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 197

1. Introduction 2006). Recently, studies with the objective of forecasting

Forecasting hail precipitation is not an easy task, due to the
fact that it is presented on small spatial and temporal scales.
Throughout the last few years, this problem has been tackled in
scientific literature from various points of view. One of the first
methods was the development of different algorithms in
meteorological radar that allow tracking and nowcasting of
hailstorms (Joe et al., 2004; López and Sánchez, 2009). Recently,
with the new generations of meteorological satellites, several
methods have been developed that allow for precipitation
measurement in real-time (Tapiador et al., 2012). However,
these systems are only useful for very short-term forecasting,
when the storms have already formed and their displacement
can be estimated.
Other methods carried out in hailstorm forecasting include
the development of algorithms made from indices provided by
atmospheric soundings. Numerous studies have evaluated the
predictive capacity of several sounding-derived parameters of
phenomena related to deep convection (Rasmussen, 2003;
Brooks, 2009).
López et al. (2007) developed a method that allowed to
compute the risk of hail anywhere in the Mid-Ebro Valley in
terms of a logistic model that used the Total Totals index,
500 hPa and 850 hPa wind, altitude of convective condensa-
tion level, the Wet Bulb Zero height, dew point temperature at
850 hPa, and the maximum probable gust, all obtained from a
radiosounding taken at 12 UTC. The results showed a proba-
bility of detection of 0.87 and a false alarm ratio of 0.18, but the
method does not provide any information about the spatial
distribution of hailfall.
Kaltenböck et al. (2009) evaluated several indices provided
by the European Center for Medium-range Weather Forecast
(ECMWF) for different types of severe convective storms in
Europe. They found that CAPE values greater than 400 Jkg−1
were a good indicator of the presence of hail. Additionally, they
showed that the presence of an elevated deep-layer shear did
not need an elevated low-level shear for hail events to develop.
The principal limitation of these methods is that in practice, a
representative radiosounding is not always available, due to the
high spatial and temporal variability that exists in pre-convective
environments (Brimelow et al., 2006). Haklander and Van
Delden (2003) point out the difficulty of obtaining relevant
information about these onset mechanisms using only data
provided by atmospheric soundings. Sánchez et al. (2009)
claimed the necessity to complete the information provided by
parameters derived by radiosoundings, via the use of informa-
tion extracted from numerical weather prediction (NWP)
models (favorable synoptic environments, formation of conver-
gence lines, presence of mesolows).
There are numerous studies that tackle the problem of
forecasting of severe weather in the short-range (Homar et al.,
hailfall from NWP models have been carried out. Brimelow et
al. (2002) developed a HAILCAST model to predict hail size in
Canada. This model consisted of a steady-state cloud model
combined with a hailstone growth model, which, via atmo-
spheric soundings, determines the risk of hail appearance in an
area and the severity it can have. These types of tools are very
useful for determining the risk of the appearance of hailstorms
and their severity, but they also present high rates of false
alarms and it is difficult to predict a detailed spatial distribution
for these storms.
The convective systems responsible for the appearance of
hail depend, on one hand, on large-scale processes, which are
responsible for the development of adequate dynamic and
thermodynamic structures, and on the other hand, on small-
scale factors, which determine the onset of convection and its
subsequent development (Doswell, 1987). Thus, for the onset
of deep convection, the presence of a synoptic environment
whose dynamic and thermodynamic conditions are favorable
to updrafts is necessary, along with the mesoscale configura-
tions that, in the last instant, determine the regions where the
onset of convection and its subsequent development are
produced.
The Mid-Ebro Valley (MEV) is of great interest for the study
of hail precipitation. Firstly, it presents a high frequency of
storms, with more than 60 days per year, on average, generating
economic losses greater than 100 M€ annually (López and
Sánchez, 2009). The Group for Atmospheric Physics at the
University of León has been developing diverse research
projects about hail since 1997. This has allowed us to register
and monitor hailstorms occurring between the months of May
and September using various techniques of nowcasting based
on radar data and observation. In the MEV, more than 700
volunteer observers distributed throughout the populated areas
are available, as well as more than 300 rain gauge stations.
The MEV presents geomorphologic characteristics that play
a decisive role in its interaction with the atmospheric circula-
tion. The valley is formed by a central depression where the
Ebro River runs, closed to the North by the Pyrenees and to the
Southwest by the Iberian Mountain Range. It has a shaft in
the NW–SE that is partially open toward the Bay of Biscay and
the Mediterranean Sea, respectively (Fig. 1). The study of these
characteristics is important in understanding the mesoscale
configurations that give way to the onset of deep convection
(Romero et al., 2001; Tudurí et al., 2003).
García-Ortega et al. (2011) established the synoptic patterns
that are favorable to the appearance of hailstorms in the MEV. By
means of the geopotential height at 500 and 850 hPa, temper-
ature at 500 and 850 hPa and relative humidity at 850 hPa fields,
five patterns were defined. In all of the patterns, the presence of a
perturbation (low or trough) was observed, whose position
over the study area provokes warm advection at low-levels or
 A. Merino et al. / Atmospheric Research 122 (2013) 183–198
Fig. 1. Study area. The black square shows the window of study for the establishment of mesoscale configurations. The central black point shows the radar's
location. White points correspond to hailpad networks.
vorticity advection at mid-levels, along with an important
difluent flow in higher tropospheric layers. This synoptic
configuration favors the presence of updrafts in the NE of
Peninsula.
In a later study, García-Ortega et al. (2012) established
mesoscale factors responsible for the onset of deep convection.
In doing this, they established that the index of convective
instability (CI), the water vapor flux divergence between 1000
and 700 hPa (WVFD), the flow at 850 hPa (F850) and the specific
humidity at 850 hPa (Q850), which allow us to identify the
location of the onset of deep convection. However, it was not
possible to establish a clear relationship between the synoptic
patterns and the observed precipitation fields. The reason is
rooted in the distinct synoptic patterns that provoke similar
mesoscale configurations with similar observed precipitation
fields.
Within this framework the objective of this paper is to
develop a study of the atmospheric characteristics on different
scales, in which hailstorms develop in the MEV. In order to do
this, first the characteristics of the synoptic environment present
on hail days and the spatial distribution of the hailstorms were
analyzed. Second, mesoscale configurations in the MEV have
been established so that they can be related to the observed
precipitation and hail fields. Lastly, several parameters were
studied in order to determine the appearance of hail within the
convective environments.
185
The aim of this paper is to improve the forecasting of
convective precipitation, especially for hailfall events. In order
to do so, on the basis of a favorable synoptic environment and
understanding the mesoscale configuration in the MEV, we will
be able to estimate the spatial distribution of convective
precipitation. The presence of hail within these precipitation
events will be evaluated via the study of hail forecast parameters.
Later, in Section 2, the methodology and the databases used
are described. In Section 3, convective precipitations along with
the synoptic environment are described. In Section 4, the
mesoscale configurations are established. In Section 5, the
study of hail forecast parameters is described in detail, and
finally, Section 6 contains the conclusions of the study.
2. Methodology and data bases
In order to do so, 100 Study Days (SDs) were selected from
the database of the C-band radar from the MEV, on which
precipitation events were registered between May and Sep-
tember between the years from 2001 to 2010. From this radar
data, the days on which convection began between 12 and
15 UTC were selected, and those on which precipitation
registered was convective or derived from convection, ruling
out the days in which stratiform rainfall was registered.
Convective precipitation was identified using TITAN software
186 A. Merino et al. / Atmospheric Research 122 (2013) 183–198
(Dixon and Wiener, 1993), that allows for following convective
cells with more than 30dBZ.
2.1. Numerical simulations
The characterization of mesoscale factors and the hail
forecast parameters was based on fields derived from simula-
tions performed with the Weather Research and Forecasting
model (WRF; Skamarock et al. (2005)). Two nested domains
were defined following a two-way nesting strategy, with a
horizontal resolution of 27 and 9 km, respectively, and 30
vertical σ levels. The initial and boundary conditions were fixed
by the NCEP re-analysis with 1° of resolution. The period
covered by the simulations was 24 h for each case study,
beginning at 00 UTC for each chosen day.
In a previous study, García-Ortega et al. (2012) developed a
multi-physics ensemble using several parameterization schemes
of cumulus and humidity in the forecasting of convective
precipitation in the MEV. In the study, they came to the
conclusion that the Goddard moisture scheme (Tao et al., 1989;
Tao and Simpson, 1993) and the Kain-Fritsch cumulus scheme
(Kain, 2002), the latter used for grid resolutions larger than
4 km, produce the best results for the precipitation field forecast.
For this reason, in the present paper, the simulations were
carried out with the same parameterization schemes.
The fields chosen to spatially characterize the mesoscale
configurations that give way to the onset of deep convection
were the same that were determined by García-Ortega et al.
(2012):
• Water vapor flux divergence between 1000 and 700 hPa
(WVFD).
• Index of convective instability (CI).
• Specific humidity at 850 hPa (Q850).
• Wind flow at 850 hPa (F850).
These fields describe the conditions that, according to Johns
and Doswell (1992), are necessary for the onset of convection:
thermal instability, sufficient humidity in low and mid-layers
of the troposphere, and the presence of updrafts. The range of
the window of study was from 40.0°N to 43.2°N and from 3°W
to 2°E (Fig. 1), extracting the four fields from Domain 2. This
window covers the whole Ebro Valley and neighboring areas,
since, in some occasions, the storms formed in areas nearby
and later relocated toward the MEV.
Since, on all of the SDs, convection began between 12 and
15 UTC, the fields selected for mesoscale analysis were
extracted at 12 UTC, which is the most representative time
for atmospheric conditions just before the onset of convection.
However, it is necessary to point out that at 12 UTC, the field of
convective precipitation of the WRF did not yet show signs of
precipitation in the study area for the SDs, making this
fundamental, since its presence could alter the values of the
fields and not be representative of preconvective conditions
(López et al., 2007).
2.2. Statistical analysis
In order to obtain the mesoscale configurations from the
selected four fields, a Principal Components Analysis (PCA) in
T-mode was carried out, followed by a Cluster Analysis (CA)
of the components extracted, using the K-means method
(Anderberg, 1973).
These multivariate analysis techniques have been amply
used for the classification of patterns in meteorology (Straus,
2010; García-Ortega et al., 2011). The purpose of using a PCA
is the reduction of the number of variables while maintaining
a large representation of the variability contained in the
original data. The procedures for the PCA consist in the
estimation of auto-values or auto-vectors of covariance or the
correlation matrix (Preisendorfer, 1988), from a matrix of
physical observations. A PCA inT-mode was applied with a
correlation matrix, using days as variables and the grid points
as observations. The objective is to reduce the dimensions of
the matrices of data, in order to later do a cluster analysis,
and also to make sure that only the fundamental modes of
variation are considered for the CA.
The CA allows for the separation of data into groups, whose
identities are previously unknown. This type of analysis is very
commonly used when establishing patterns, configurations, or
climatologies with atmospheric fields (Molteni et al., 1990;
Erfani and Chouinard, 2012). The non-hierarchical k-means
algorithm method (Anderberg, 1973) classifies groups of data
according to their similarity using, in this case, the Euclidean
distance. The algorithm classifies data in a way that maximizes
similarity within the clusters and minimizes the similarity
between clusters. One of the sources of subjectivity for this
method is the requirement that the number of final conglom-
erations (k) is pre-determined ahead of time. The selection of k
can be objectively done, studying the intragroup distances (D)
in a way that selects a k value so that the diminishing of D is not
significant. However, the final choice for k is assigned with a
certain degree of subjectivity since it should allow a correct
physical interpretation of the results.
2.3. Ground measurements
For each SD, precipitation data provided by a dense rain
gauge network were obtained. The number of rain gauges has
been increasing over the years, from 151 available in 2001 to
331 available in 2010. Data for accumulated precipitation was
extracted between 12–15 UTC and between 12–24 UTC with
the objective of characterizing the areas affected by precip-
itation in the first hours of convection and the areas that
were affected by their subsequent evolution.
The spatial analysis of data for the weather stations was
done using the objective Cressman method (Cressman, 1959).
This technique was used for the creation of spatial fields of
meteorological variables from data provided by irregularly
distributed weather stations (Casas et al., 2008). Once the
observed precipitation field is obtained for both of the time
periods mentioned, it was used to calculate the probability of
precipitation as frequency of occurrence. The spatial distribu-
tion of precipitation was evaluated in each of the clusters,
according to the probability field and average precipitation.
Similarly, the spatial extension of hailfall events was
evaluated, as well as their severity. The spatial extension was
estimated by means of a Nowcasting Model for the Detection
of Hailstorm (NMDH), implemented by meteorological
C-band radar that allows for the detection of hailstorms on
the ground using a probability scale (López and Sánchez,
2009). Due to its high probability of detection (85%) and low
 A. Merino et al. / Atmospheric Research 122 (2013) 183–198
false alarm ratio (15%), this algorithm has allowed for the
monitoring of hailstorms occurring between the months of
May and September since 2001, and constitutes a reliable
system to evaluate the spatial extension of hailfall.
The severity of hail was evaluated using information
obtained by two hailpad networks available in the study area.
These systems objectively provide several indicative param-
eters for the extension and severity of hail events. The first
network is located in the Western Iberian range, and consists
of 100 hailpads available since 2004. The second network is
located in the Eastern valley, and consists of 174 operating
hailpads since 1999 (Fig. 1).
2.4. Hail forecast parameters
Finally, an analysis of the prediction parameters for the
presence of hail was done for each of the mesoscale configura-
tions obtained. The objective is to be able to determine the
parameters and their thresholds, which can help discern the
appearance of hail in each one of the mesoscale configurations.
The parameters analyzed were the following:
• Convective available potential energy (CAPE, Moncrieff and
Miller (1976)) is an indicator commonly used for the fore-
casting of supercells that produce severe weather. Studies done
in Europe indicate that the presence of CAPE greater than
to 400 Jkg−1 is a good indicator of the presence of hail
(Kaltenböck et al., 2009).
• Storm-relative helicity between 0 and 3 km (SRH0–3,
Droegemeier et al. (1993)). In the areas surrounding moun-
tainous zones, the modification of windflow in low layers
improves the directional shear, playing an important role in
the onset and development of local severe storms in Europe
(Hannesen et al., 1998; Kaltenböck, 2004).
• The Showalter index (SI, Showalter (1953), Hart and
Korotky (1991)) can be very useful for forecasting storms,
applying a threshold of 3. For severe storms in Europe,
there are average values of 0, except for hail, which is − 1
(Huntrieser et al., 1997; Kaltenböck et al., 2009).
• The Energy–Helicity Index (EHI, Hart and Korotky (1991),
Davies (1993)). This index relates the CAPE and the SRH0–3
and is very commonly used operationally for predicting
supercells, so when the value is greater than 1, it indicates a
high probability of supercells ((Rasmussen and Blanchard,
1998)).
Habitually, the evaluation of the instability parameters
as indicators of the presence of hail has been done via
radiosoundings, with a spatial representativeness up to 250 km
(Huntrieser et al., 1997), and a temporal representativeness of up
to 12 h (Sánchez et al., 2003). However, the variability existing in
preconvective environments (Brimelow et al., 2006) makes both
spatial and temporal representativeness of radiosoundings
somewhat questioned. In this sense, Romero et al. (2001)
disputed the representativeness of the radiosoundings in nearby
mountainous areas.
In the present paper, these parameters have been extracted
from vertical profiles provided by WRF simulations for each
grid point. In the same way, the hail probability provided by the
NMDH was extrapolated to the same grid from the model. A
region of 120 km was included regarding the radar and we
proceeded to a comparison between the thermodynamic
187
indices in regions where the NMDH did and did not observe
hail for each cluster. Since, on the selected days, the onset of
convection was between 12 and 15 UTC, the vertical profiles at
12 UTC were considered, so that the results were not affected
by the variability of preconvective environments.
3. Convective precipitation in the MEV
With the objective of characterizing convective precipita-
tion in the MEV on different scales, an analysis of the synoptic
environment was carried out. Furthermore, the distribution
of precipitation and hailfall for the entirety of the SDs was
analyzed. In order to do so, the probability of precipitation
and of hail was calculated using the rain gauge network and
the NMHD from radar, respectively. This information pro-
vides both an atmospheric pattern on a synoptic scale and an
observed precipitation pattern on convection days in the
MEV.
3.1. Synoptic environment
The geopotential field and temperature at 500 hPa, on
average, together with their deviations, were represented for
the whole of SDs. The synoptic environment under which
convective hail precipitation developed in the MEV shows
the presence of a trough at 500 hPa over the West of the
Peninsula, while in the Western Mediterranean, there is a
ridge from the North of Africa. The trough is accompanied by
a cold nucleus at 500 hPa over the center of the Peninsula
(Fig. 2). The highest deviations, both of geopotential and
temperature, are seen in the trough, and are lower along the
ridge. The reason is that the cold air mass is susceptible to a
greater seasonal variation than the warm air mass. However,
it is necessary to point out that the observed deviations are
similar to intra-cluster deviations found by García-Ortega et
al. (2012), and thus, the synoptic environment in the case of
convective hail precipitation days is less variable than
studying convection with hail along with stratiform precipita-
tions. 89% of the events are found within Clusters 2, 4, and 5, as
defined by García-Ortega et al. (2011), whose principal
characteristic is the presence of a trough with different depth
to the West of the Iberian Peninsula. These synoptic conditions
provide a favorable environment for the presence of updrafts
over the NE of the Peninsula, since at mid-tropospheric levels it
produces important vorticity advection, accompanied by warm
advection in lower layers (not shown).
3.2. Distribution of convective precipitation
The observed precipitation in the period defined as the onset
of convection (12–15 UTC), along with the accumulated total
(12–24 UTC), were obtained using a network of rain gauges.
Hailfall events were evaluated using the NMDH. From this data,
the probability of precipitation and hail was calculated for the
whole of the SDs. It is necessary to point out that, in this study,
the probability was computed as frequency of occurrence.
The probability of precipitation >1 mm accumulated
between 12 and 15 UTC (Fig. 3) shows the areas where deep
convection initiates and its incipient displacement. The results
reflect that precipitation begins in mountainous areas and their
proximities, fundamentally in the Pyrenees, the Iberian Range
188 A. Merino et al. / Atmospheric Research 122 (2013) 183–198

Fig. 2. Left: Average for geopotential at 500 hPa (contours, gpm) and deviations (shadows). Right: Average for temperature at 500 hPa (contours, K) and
deviations (shadows).

in Teruel, and the Moncayo range. However, in the Ebro Valley,
the probability of precipitation in the first hours of convection
is close to zero. The analysis of the probability of precipitation
>1 mm between 12 and 24 UTC (Fig. 3) determines the
regions that are most affected by convective precipitation. The
Pyrenees, with more than 60% of the days, is the region that
produces this phenomenon with the greatest frequency. After
this region is the Iberian Range, fundamentally the Eastern and
the Moncayo Range. The lowest probability corresponds to the
Ebro Valley, with the exception of the Eastern Valley, where a
probability of more than 30% is registered.
The regions with the greatest probability of hail (Fig. 4)
correspond to the Eastern half of the study area, especially the
area surrounding the Gúdar Range, with maximum probability
values that are greater than 30%. The regions with the lowest
probability are in the West, with the exception of the Iberian
Range in Zaragoza. The Ebro Valley, with the exception of the
Eastern area, presents the lowest probability.

Fig. 3. Probability of precipitation >1 mm. Left: between 12 and 15 UTC. Right: between 12 and 24 UTC.
 A. Merino et al. / Atmospheric Research 122 (2013) 183–198
4. Establishment of mesoscale configurations
As a result of the PCA, the components that, together,
reached an explained variance of at least 90% were extracted.
The extracted components were 18 in the case of Q850, 54 for
WVFD, 55 for F850 and 14 in the case of the CI. Afterwards,
with the matrix of 141 loadings, the CA was applied. The
intra-group Euclidean distance was computed for k = 2…k =
20, observing a minimum decrease for k = 4, corresponding
also to a satisfactory conglomerate number from a physics
interpretation standpoint. The distribution of the SDs
obtained from the application of the CA gives Cluster 1,
with 17 days-the least frequent-as a result. Clusters 2 and 4
have a similar number of elements, with 25 and 26 days,
respectively, and lastly, Cluster 3 has 32 days. The distribu-
tion by month shows that July and August are the months
with the greatest number of convective hail episodes in the
MEV (Fig. 5). The monthly distribution by cluster is not
uniform: in September Clusters 1 and 3 predominate, and in
June, it is Cluster 4. July and August have similar SDs in each
cluster.
4.1. Cluster 1
The mesoscale configuration obtained in Cluster 1 (Fig. 6)
is characterized by NW flow (this wind is known as Cierzo) in
the High- and Mid-Ebro Valley, being from SW to the E of the
study area. Toward the South of the Iberian Range, the flow is
from SW to S. In regards to the CI, maximum instability
values (−10 °C) are observed toward the E–NE. The air mass
at 850 hPa presents elevated concentrations of water vapor
in the easternmost areas of the domain, exceeding 10 gkg −1.
In the surrounding area of the Valley, the air mass is
relatively humid because of the influence of the NW flow,
while toward the South of the Iberian Range, the SW flow is
very dry. The most significant water vapor flow convergence
Fig. 4. Probability of hail between 12 and 24 UTC, provided by the NMDH by
radar.
189
(WVFC) is found in the central Pyrenees and the Gúdar
Range.
With this configuration, in the first hours of convection, a
high probability of precipitation is observed around the
Gúdar Range, and in the Central and Eastern Pyrenees, with a
probability that is practically null in the rest of the areas,
principally those affected by the Cierzo. It is these same areas
where, on average, more precipitation accumulates in the
first instances, especially those with more than 3 mm to the
East of the Gúdar Range (Fig. 6). The greatest probability of
accumulated precipitation in 12 h both for >1 mm and
> 10 mm is limited to the Eastern area, coinciding with the
regions where precipitation initiates. However, toward the
West, the probability is very low, being null in the case of
precipitation greater than 10 mm (Fig. 6).
The study of the distribution of hail shows that it is
produced mainly in mountainous regions in the Eastern third
of the study area (the Gúdar Range and Eastern Pyrenees),
with the probability reaching up to 40%, and no possibility of
hail in the West and in the Ebro Valley (Fig. 6).
4.2. Cluster 2
The mesoscale configuration of Cluster 2 (Fig. 7) is
characterized by SW winds in the entire study area, except
in mountainous areas where the orography produces
deviations in wind direction. The CI is high toward the N
and E of the region (− 7 °C), although the instability is lower
than in other clusters. The specific humidity is very low,
being higher in the NW and furthest E areas, due to the fact
that the SW winds crossed the Iberian Peninsula. The most
important WVFC areas were located in the mountainous
systems, with the areas close to the Gúdar Range standing
out, with − 4 gm − 2 s − 1.
With this configuration, the precipitation begins in the
mountainous areas, due to the fact that the low humidity at low
layers does not favor reaching the condensation level without
the help of orographic forcing. The average precipitation in
these regions is small, and does not exceed 1 mm (Fig. 7). The
probability of precipitation accumulated in 12 h is distributed
throughout almost the whole study area, being greater than
Fig. 5. Monthly distribution of cluster, according to the CA.
190 A. Merino et al. / Atmospheric Research 122 (2013) 183–198

Fig. 6. Cluster 1. Row 1: Left: WVFD (contour line, gm−2 s−1) convergences (L), divergences (H) and CI (shaded, °C); Right: F850 (streamlines) and Q850 (shaded,
kgkg−1). Row 2: Probability of precipitation >1 mm (left) and accumulated average precipitation (right, mm), computed between 12 and 15 UTC. Row 3:
probability of precipitation >1 mm (left) and >10 mm (right), computed between 12 and 24 UTC. Row 4: accumulated average precipitation (left, mm) and
probability of hail accumulated via NMDH (right), computed between 12 and 24 UTC.
 A. Merino et al. / Atmospheric Research 122 (2013) 183–198
50% in mountainous zones and their surrounding areas, with a
lower probability in the Valley. The precipitation, however, is
not very substantial, since the probability >10 mm is very low,
with an average of 1–3 mm in mountainous zones (Fig. 7).
The probability of hail is very low, reaching only 10% in
mountainous areas, which shows that this mesoscale config-
uration is not very favorable for the formation of extensive
hailstorms (Fig. 7).
4.3. Cluster 3
The mesoscale configuration in Cluster 3 (Fig. 8) is charac-
terized by the presence of flow from the S, except in the southern
slope of the Iberian Range, which blows SW. The CI is very
noticeable in E–NE area, with values that exceed −10 °C. At the
same time, high concentrations of humidity are registered in
the areas that are affected by S–SE winds coming from the
Mediterranean. In regards to convergences, an important WVFC
is produced (−8 gm−2 s−1) in the area of the Gúdar Range,
which extends toward the Eastern Ebro Valley and the
mountains close to the Iberian Range.
With this configuration, the highest probability of precip-
itation in the first hours of convection is produced in the
Central and Eastern Iberian Range. The evolution of precipita-
tion in 12 h shows probabilities greater than 50% in the entire
strip that surrounds the Iberian Range in Teruel, the Eastern
valley and the Pyrenees, with low probabilities in the Iberian
range in Zaragoza. In addition to these regions, the most
intense precipitation is produced, mostly in the Pyrenees, with
a probability greater than 30% and registering more than
10 mm. The precipitation accumulated in 12 h is greater than
5 mm in the Eastern Valley and 7 mm in the Pyrenees (Fig. 8).
Hail precipitations are registered in an ample strip at the
center of the study area, coinciding with the region with
the highest probability of precipitation (Fig. 8). Additionally,
the probabilities are relatively high, reaching 30% in the Central
Ebro Valley.
4.4. Cluster 4
The mesoscale configuration presented in Cluster 4 (Fig. 9)
shows a SE-component winds in Ebro valley and Iberian Range.
The maximum CI values are located in W–NW, reaching values
close to −8 °C. Additionally, elevated concentrations of water
vapor are registered in low layers in the NW and the Iberian
Range, exceeding 10 gkg−1, due to the SE flow that displaces
the humid air mass from the Mediterranean to the High Ebro
Valley. They do not produce a notable WVFC in the study area,
except that formed in the Gúdar Range.
With this configuration, the highest probability of precip-
itation in the first hours of convection is produced in the west
of the Iberian Range, being almost null toward the SE of the
study area. In regards to precipitation accumulated in 12 h, a
probability greater than 50% is registered in West and the
North (Fig. 9). The probability of the precipitation >10 mm is
limited to the Western third, while in the Eastern third, the
probability is close to 0. The average precipitation accumulated
in 12 h shows quantities greater than 5 mm in Iberian Range,
while in the Eastern third the quantities are null (Fig. 9).
The greatest probability of hail occurs in the Central and
Western Iberian Range (SW study area), while toward the NE
191
and S the probability is almost null, with the exception of the
Pyrenees (Fig. 9). The probability exceeds 20% in the Central
Iberian Range.
4.5. Hailpad data in cluster classification
Once the mesoscale configurations were established, the data
provided by the two hailpad networks deployed in the study
area were analyzed. The hailpad data allowed us, on one hand, to
estimate the severity of hailstorms in each of the clusters, and, on
the other hand to validate the results for the frequency of hail
obtained in each of the mesoscale configurations.
According to the results shown, the mesoscale configura-
tion described in Cluster 4 is the most favorable for producing
hailstorms over the Iberian Range, with a probability between
20 and 25%. The days pertaining to this cluster produced a total
of 85 hailpads impacted, closely followed by clusters 2 and 3,
where the mesoscale configuration also indicated important
probabilities of hail (see Table 1). On the other extreme, the
configuration described in cluster 1 showed a very low
probability of hail in this region (1–5%), as demonstrated by
the fact that only 5 hailpads were impacted in this period. In
regards to severity, in Cluster 4 the parameters for ice mass,
kinetic energy and maximum diameter indicate that the storms
were most severe.
In the Eastern Valley, the configurations for Clusters 1 and 3
were more favorable for the presence of hail, with a probability
superior to 10%. In fact, in this network, a total of 105 and 115
hailpads were impacted, respectively (see Table 1). However,
Clusters 2 and 4 showed results that were not very favorable
for the presence of hail, as shown in the low number of hailpads
impacted. The hailstorms in configurations 1 and 3 were more
severe, especially those of Cluster 1, with an average mass per
episode of more than 300 g and kinetic energy of more than
70 J.
The results obtained in the analysis of the mesoscale
configurations defined in the present study allow us to
establish relationships between the mesoscale fields and the
spatial distribution of convective precipitation and of hail in the
study area. This information can be very valuable to improve
the forecasting of these types of phenomena.
5. Hail forecast parameters
The results of the spatial analysis of the hail forecast
parameters by cluster are summarized in Table 2. Firstly, the
number of vertical profiles obtained for each cluster is shown,
for the pixels in which the NWDH by radar observed hail and
hail-free areas. As shown previously, the most extensive
hailstorms are in Cluster 3, with an average of 14 grid points
per day affected by hail. On the contrary, clusters 1 and 2
correspond to hailstorms with the least spatial extension, with
an average of 4.5 and 5.8 grid points per day, respectively. The
reason is that in Cluster 1, the hailstorms were restricted to the
SE and NE, and in Cluster 2, the probability of hail was very
low, and was restricted to mountainous areas. As a result of
the application of the T-test for equality of means, for all of the
variables there were significant differences at 99% between the
hail and hail-free grid points, with the exception of SRH0–3 in
cluster 2, where no significant differences were found.
192 A. Merino et al. / Atmospheric Research 122 (2013) 183–198

Fig. 7. As in Fig. 6, but Cluster 2.

A. Merino et al. / Atmospheric Research 122 (2013) 183–198 193

Fig. 8. As in Fig. 6, but Cluster 3.

194 A. Merino et al. / Atmospheric Research 122 (2013) 183–198

Fig. 9. As in Fig. 6, but Cluster 4.

 A. Merino et al. / Atmospheric Research 122 (2013) 183–198 195

Table 1 precipitation occurred in the same range for SRH0–3 with

Parameters for hail episodes registered in the two hailpad networks, by cluster. averages close to 30 m 2 s −2 (Kaltenböck et al., 2009). In this
Area Cluster No No Average Average Average
case, the results are similar but with averages close to
total total ice kinetic maximum 100 m 2 s −2. This fact could be due to the complex orography
plates impacts mass energy diameter that characterizes the study area, which increases the direc-
(g) (J) (mm) tional shear in low layers as a consequence of the perturbation
Western 1 5 899 231.78 17.69 15.82 of flow (Hannesen et al., 1998; Kaltenböck, 2004). The high
Iberian 2 54 5805 181.58 15.39 16.06 values for SRH0–3 can favor the onset of deep convection,
Range 3 63 3739 94.43 9.80 16.57
although it is not a sufficient factor for the development of
4 85 5401 235.55 29.40 17.33
Eastern 1 105 7825 531.54 71.73 22.64 hailstorms.
Valley 2 17 1006 69.41 7.07 21.25 In regards to the Showalter Index, in 75% of the hail grid
3 115 8165 386.27 49.64 18.10 points, the values are lower than 0 °C (Fig. 11). The exception
4 28 1999 130.70 25.96 14.34 continues to be Cluster 2, where the differences between the
hail and hail-free grid points are less. This index is a good
indicator for the presence of hail. In this case, for Clusters 1, 3,
and 4, a good threshold would be − 2, since 50% of profiles
These data were represented in box and whisker plots with hail are lower than this value. Kaltenböck et al. (2009)
according to their percentiles. It is necessary to point out found an average of − 1 for hailstorms in Europe, registering
that overlaps are expected between ranges for values of hail values lower than in tornado episodes. This shows highly
forecast parameters for the case of hail and hail-free profiles, unstable environmental conditions in which hail episodes
since the applied methodology classifies the profiles proxi- develop.
mal to the areas where hail is produced, as well as hail-free The study of these parameters shows the difficulty of
profile. establishing general thresholds for predicting hailstorms. As
In the case of CAPE, there is an important difference in the shown, the mesoscale configurations can determine the degree
median of the distribution of values between the profiles of of instability necessary to produce hailstorms. Thus, the values
hail and hail-free areas (Fig. 10). This difference is less in for instability in preconvective environments for hail areas in
cluster 2 and quite evident in Clusters 3 and 4. In these Cluster 2 are similar to the preconvective environments for
Clusters 75% of profiles with hail have CAPE values between hail-free grid points in the other three clusters. As such, when
500 and 1000 Jkg −1, being 500 Jkg −1 a good threshold to studying convective indices and the establishment of thresh-
explain the hailfall in these Clusters. These results are similar olds for the hail prediction, it is necessary to establish relation-
to those found by Kaltenböck et al. (2009) in Europe, where ships between the mesoscale configurations that give way to
75% of the radiosoundings with hail exceed 400 Jkg −1. hailstorms.
However, in Cluster 2, there is no substantial separation in
the CAPE values for the profiles of hail and hail-free areas.
The EHI shows a greater difference for profiles of hail and 6. Conclusions
hail-free areas in the cases of Clusters 3 and 4, with barely any
differences in Cluster 2 (Fig. 10). Despite the fact that Brooks et The characterization of convective precipitation done by
al. (1994) indicated that this index is not valid to differentiate combining the definition of a synoptic environment, the
between tornadic and non-tornadic supercells, in this case, it establishment of mesoscale configurations and the study of hail
can be a good discriminator for profiles of hail since more than forecast parameters, constitutes an adequate methodology to
50% have values superior to 0.3, except in Cluster 2, where the tackle the problem of predicting hail precipitation. The greatest
differences do not allow for the establishment of thresholds. inconvenience of this methodology is that the results are not
In the case of the SRH0–3, there is no difference that allows extrapolated to different regions, and as such, it is necessary to
us to establish thresholds between the profiles of hail and characterize each study area. However, the information that can
hail-free areas for any of the Clusters (Fig. 11). Studies carried be extracted from its application is very useful for the forecasting
out in Europe showed that with weak tornadoes, hail and of hailstorms and it can be combined with the results provided
by the incipient numerical models that study this question.
The results found in this paper suggest that it is not ideal to
tackle the problem of hailstorm prediction by considering the
Table 2
Average for hail forecast parameters in hail and hail-free grid points, by
synoptic environment, the mesoscale characteristics, and the
cluster. convective parameters in an isolated way. The analysis, along
with these three basic pillars, provides information that allows
Cluster Hail N Average CAPE Jkg−1 EHI SRH SI °C for a good approximation for the prediction of hailstorms.
day m2s−2
The synoptic environment favorable for the appearance of
1 Hail-free 4494 264.35 233.68 0.12 103.64 0.45 convective precipitations in the MEV is characterized by the
Hail 76 4.47 609.89 0.21 82.52 −2.07
presence of a trough at 500 hPa, accompanied by a cold air mass
2 Hail-free 6252 250.08 265.86 0.07 56.54 −0.38
Hail 146 5.84 362.14 0.13 60.14 −1.24 situated to the West of the Iberian Peninsula. This configuration
3 Hail-free 7558 236.19 416.91 0.23 102.27 −0.97 provokes a positive vorticity advection in mid-tropospheric
Hail 448 14.00 733.45 0.51 121.08 −2.38 levels over the study area, and a warm advection in low layers,
4 Hail-free 5940 228.46 499.06 0.36 106.47 −1.68 which are ingredients necessary for the presence of updrafts.
Hail 255 9.81 734.28 0.56 123.59 −2.86
The deviations found in the geopotential and temperature fields
196 A. Merino et al. / Atmospheric Research 122 (2013) 183–198

Fig. 10. Box and whisker plot for hail/hail-free grid points for each clusters. The line below the box indicates the 25th percentile, the central line indicates the
median, and the line above the box indicates the 75th percentile. The error lines above and below the box indicate the 95th and 5th percentiles, respectively. Left
for CAPE and right for EHI.

at 500 hPa are very small, which suggests that the synoptic
environment is well-defined and delimited.
The mesoscale configurations were defined using a classifi-
cation of the SDs. With this objective, a PCA in T-mode followed
by a CA were carried out, obtaining four mesoscale configura-
tions defined by the WVFD, CI, Q850 and F850 as results. The
results obtained in the analysis of the mesoscale configurations
allowed us to establish relationships between these configura-
tions and the spatial distribution of the convective precipitation
events and hail in the study area. Cluster 1, made up of 17 days,
is characterized by the formation of storms in the extreme East
of the region, mainly in the Pyrenees and the Gúdar Range.

Fig. 11. As in Fig. 12, left for SRH0–3 and right for SI.
 A. Merino et al. / Atmospheric Research 122 (2013) 183–198
The entrance of Cierzo from the NW inhibits convective activity.
The severity of storms registered in this cluster is very
noticeable, since where convective precipitations are registered,
the probability that they are accompanied by hail is high.
Cluster 2, made up of 25 days, is characterized by the
formation of storms in mountainous systems, without reaching
valley areas. The storms generated in this cluster are neither
strong nor severe, since they leave scarce precipitation, and the
probability of hail is very low. The presence of low convective
instability added to the low concentrations of humidity that are
provoked by the SW winds only allows for the formation of
storms with the help of forced ascents that are produced in
mountainous areas.
Cluster 3, made up of 33 days, is the most frequent
configuration for storm days with hail. This configuration
provokes the presence of convective precipitation in an ample
central strip of the study area, from the center of the Iberian
Range toward the Pyrenees. In this Cluster, the episodes in
which convection begins outside the mountain areas are
included, due to the intense CI that allows the ascents of air
without the help of orographic forcings. Similarly, the severity
is notable, due to high frequency of hail precipitations.
The configuration defined in Cluster 4, made up of 26 days,
is similar to the previous cluster, but in this case, a SE advection
moves the humid and unstable air mass toward the West. Thus,
storms affect the Western Iberian Range, corresponding to
these areas the maximum probability of hail.
Finally, several parameters extracted by vertical profiles
by the WRF model for each grid point were studied. This
methodology allowed us to minimize the effects that the
variability of preconvective environments has on the represen-
tativeness of the radiosoundings. The values of CAPE, SRH0–3,
EHI and SI present statistically significant differences for the hail
and hail-free grid points. However, the threshold values for each
index are variable according to the mesoscale configurations.
For Clusters 3 and 4, 75% of the profiles with hail present CAPE
values superior to 400 Jkg−1, EHI values superior to 0 and SI
values inferior to −2. In these two Clusters, the indices' values
suggest a greater degree of severity of convection. The SRH0–3
values do not allow us to establish thresholds between profiles
of hail and hail-free areas. The same occurs with the values for
all of the parameters in Cluster 2.
In the future, the results of the analysis, along with these
three pillars, could be incorporated in numerical models in a
way that makes it possible to obtain probabilistic forecasts for
hailstorms. The availability for a tool of this kind can facilitate
the work of the predictor, without the necessity of a detailed
analysis of each of the numerous factors that play a role in the
appearance of hailstorms.
Acknowledgments
The authors would like to thank the Junta of Castilla and León
LE220A11-2 and LE176A11-2, Granímetro (MEC CGL2010-
15930), Micrometeo.com (IPT-310000-2010-22), Tecoagua
(CEN20091028) and the Consejería de Agricultura del Gobierno
de Aragón for their economic support. Additionally, they would
like to thank the Consul of Education for the Junta of Castilla y
León and the Social European Fund (ORDEN EDU/1064/2009, 14
May) for their financial support in order to higher recent
197
graduates. As well as the Confederación Hidrográfica del Ebro
for the rain gauges data.
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