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Systems Engineering — Theory & Practice

Volume 29, Issue 8, August 2009


Online English edition of the Chinese language journal

Cite this article as: SETP, 2009, 29(8): 153–159

Quantitative HAZOP Analysis for Gas Turbine Compressor


based on Fuzzy Information Fusion
HU Jin-qiu∗ , ZHANG Lai-bin, LIANG Wei, WANG Zhao-hui
Faculty of Mechanical and Electronic Engineering, China University of Petroleum, Beijing 102249, China

Abstract: An improved Hazard and Operability (HAZOP) modeling and reasoning method is proposed based on the fuzzy information
fusion theory, in order to solve practical safety-related problems in industry, such as quantitative information loss and the difficulty of
system safety decision-making during the traditional computer-aid HAZOP analysis. A directed graph knowledge model of systematical
HAZOP analysis is first developed, taking advantage of different fuzzy quantitative methods corresponding to various variable nodes
with different attributes in the system. Based on the D-S evidence theory, the quantitative deviated information between relevant nodes
on the path of hazard propagation is used for the fuzzy information reasoning, which is to indicate the fusion reliability of hazard
reasons and consequences of system, respectively, and provides an important foundation in safety decision-making. The results of the
proposed method applied on the gas turbine compressor system in “Se-Ning-Lan” pipeline system present the possible hazard reasons
and consequences according to the current running states with corresponding sorted fusion reliabilities, based on which the appropriate
and effective safety maintenance plans are taken into action to avoid accidents. The comparison with traditional HAZOP analysis shows
that the proposed method is able to solve the limitation and the uncertainty of traditional HAZOP qualitative analysis and improve the
rationality of maintenance decision-making under the existence of multi hazard sources.
Key words: HAZOP analysis; fuzzy information fusion; D-S evidence theory; gas turbine compressor

1 Introduction (3) Not all the compatible pathways derived from for-
ward and backward inference mechanism of computer-aid
Hazard and Operability study (HAZOP) is an im- HAZOP would actually happen in the real world, since a
portant technique used to identify potential hazard rea- considerable part of them have a very low occurrence prob-
sons and estimate their consequences in large-scale me- ability. Especially during the safety analysis of large-scale
chanical engineering systems. Recently, HAZOP studies petrochemical or mechanical system, this approach with low
have been improved successfully to overcome the time- recognition capability would result in large number of out-
consuming and laborious problems of traditional artificial comes or even “combinational explosion”[6] which may lead
HAZOP analysis, such as SDG-HAZOP method[1−2] , fuzzy the safety engineer to take inappropriate safety inspections
interference-based HAZOP[3] , Petri net-based HAZOP[4] , and miss the best maintenance time.
and a knowledge-based TOPHAZOP software tool devel- Therefore, this article presents an improved HAZOP
oped by Faisal and Abbasi[5] . The above-mentioned ap- approach for addressing the above challenges. A directed
proaches have advanced the development of safety analysis graph knowledge (DGK) model is first developed to (1) iden-
based on HAZOP study. Nevertheless, several aspects need tify system variables that can represent system safety condi-
to be further investigated when they are applied to complex tion, process, and performance; (2) determine the state space
industrial system, such as gas turbine compressor system: of each variable; (3) build explicit relationships (i.e. inter-
(1) In traditional computer-aid HAZOP analysis, as dependencies) among above variables with different attribu-
variable deviations are qualitatively described by guide tions. A fuzzy information fusion method integrating fuzzy
words, important quantitative information (such as variable mathematics and D-S evidence theory is further proposed
deviation degree, probability of hazards and consequences, to analyze the potential hazards of system (e.g. functional
etc.) is usually lost, which affects the accuracy of safety as- faults, component failures, human mistakes, and external
sessment for complex system. destruction), providing possible hazard origins and conse-
(2) The traditional HAZOP approaches usually ignore quences with corresponding fusion reliabilities. It is utilized
the interaction and relationship among system variables, and to solve uncertainty problem in safety decision-making un-
hence when there are more than one hazard sources or devi- der the situation of multi-hazard sources or multi deviation
ations, it will result in redundant solutions, improper main- variables. A field case study for the gas turbine compres-
tenance plans, and false alarms. sor system presents how to apply the proposed method to
Received date: May 4, 2008
∗ Corresponding author: E-mail: hjqcup@hotmail.com
Foundation item: Supported by the National High Technology Research and Development Program of China (No.2008AA06Z209); CNPC Innovation
Fund(No.2006-A); Program for New Century Excellent Talents in China University(No.NCET-05-0110)
Copyright 
c 2009, Systems Engineering Society of China. Published by Elsevier BV. All rights reserved.
HU Jin-qiu, et al./Systems Engineering — Theory & Practice, 2009, 29(8): 153–159

a real industrial system for quantitative safety analysis, and


the final safety assessment results provide a reliable founda-
tion for appropriate and accurate safety maintenance or con-
tingency decision-making which is to eliminate any hazard
source leading to major accidents.
2 Systemic HAZOP analysis based on
directed graph knowledge (DGK) model
HAZOP approach is defined as the application of a for-
mal, systematic critical examination of the process and the
engineering intentions of existing facilities to assess the po-
tential for malfunctioning of individual pieces of equipment,
and the consequential effects on the facility as a whole. In
the process of HAZOP deep knowledge model development Figure 1. HAZOP DGK model
based on graph theory, executing the method relies on us-
ing guidewords combined with process parameters that aim parabola distribution are somewhat conservative; while the
to reveal deviations of the process intention or normal oper- membership function values of half-normal distribution and
ation, with the framework of relationships and interactions Cauchy distribution are less than 1, the physical meaning
among key variables. Having determined the deviations, of these formulas are also not clear enough. Therefore, ac-
their feasible causes and their possible consequences are cording to the constructive principle of fuzzy membership
explored by backward and forward reasoning respectively function and considering the transformation features of node
along compatible pathways (i.e. hazard propagation paths). variables as well as the practical experience in engineering,
Considering the various deviations corresponding to the membership function with ridge-shaped distribution is
process parameters of large-scale mechanical system, an im- selected for fuzzy quantitative processing of node states.
proved SDG-HAZOP[2] model is proposed according to the With the concept of fuzzy set, the deviation Δvi of node
industrial practice in this article, using system deviations vi is mapped into fuzzy quantitative deviation δvi . Assuming
(i.e. combinations of parameters and guide words) in HA- the normal interval of a node deviation as [vil , vis ], the value
ZOP analysis as nodes in HAZOP graph model, and hence boundary is processed by ridge-shape distribution function,
it is able to describe the “fluctuation”, “none”, “opposite” with upper and lower boundaries as [vils , vis s
],[vill l
, vis ], re-
states which are important in HAZOP analysis, as well as spectively, where vil = vi − ε, vis = vi + ε, vil = vil − ε,
s s s s l
l
“more than”, “less than” and “normal” states in traditional vis = vil + ε, and ε can be commonly set as ε = (vis − vil )/5
SDG model. with slight modification according to the need of engineer-
ing practice. The fuzzy membership function of the node
3 Quantitative HAZOP model based on
deviation is shown in Figure 1, and the formula expression
fuzzy information fusion theory
is Eq.(1).
3.1 Fuzzy quantitative deviation of observable node ⎧
⎪ −1 x ≤ vill
In DGK model, when node states are described by ⎪
⎪ l l

⎪ 1 1 π vis +vil
vill < x ≤ vis
l
guide words such as “more than”, “less than”, “normal”, ⎨ − 2 + 2 sin( visl −v l (x −
il
2 ))
“fluctuation”, the quantitative information is lost, which δvi = 0 l
vis < x ≤ vils

⎪ s s
results in a great deal of false solutions while searching ⎪
⎪ 1
+ 12 sin( vs −v
π
s (x −
vis +vil
)) s s
vil < x ≤ vis

⎩ 2 is il
2
along the hazard propagation pathway, and combinatorial 1 s
x > vis
explosion of algorithm complexity[7] . Therefore, the node (1)
states in DGK model are quantitatively determined by fuzzy
mathematics theory first, which will be subsequently used 3.2 Fuzzy membership distribution of hazard reason
for backward and forward fusion reasoning and decision- and consequence nodes
making in the next step. In HAZOP model, a given node deviation often corre-
Because of the transition phenomenon caused by the sponds to various possible hazard reasons, and also produces
transformation of node states and the unclear delineation of a number of possible consequences. In these reason and con-
the boundary between “normal” state and “abnormal” state, sequence sets, there are some certain reasons with higher
the deviation variable of a node only belongs to a discrete probabilities that indicate common hazard sources, whereas
state set to some extent. Considering the transition of an ob- others with rather lower probabilities indicating that those
servable deviation from “absolutely normal” to “absolutely hazard sources seldom occurred before. Taking node devi-
abnormal” state, the membership function is introduced to ation “Lower lubricating oil pressure” in gas turbine com-
represent the deviation degree. In engineering practice, there pressor system for example, “Oil filter is blocked” in cor-
are a few common membership functions, such as half- responding hazard reason sets will occur with higher possi-
trapezium distribution, quadratic parabola distribution, half- bility, while “bearing temperature suddenly increases” with
normal distribution, Cauchy distribution, and ridge-shaped lower possibility. If these HAZOP analysis results are output
distribution. Because half-trapezium distribution belongs to simultaneously without any information about occurrence
linear model, it is unable to represent the nonlinear charac- possibility, field safety engineer will usually be misled, ig-
teristics of variables; the calculation results of quadratic noring the most important hazards (i.e. root causes), and
HU Jin-qiu, et al./Systems Engineering — Theory & Practice, 2009, 29(8): 153–159

finally failing to make accurate safety maintenance plan to fusion of relative nodes, in other words, whether the fusion
avoid accidents. node is deviated or not depends on the integration of whether
Relative comparison approach[8] based on dualistic each node is deviated.
contrast compositor theory is applied to determine the fuzzy If the parent node vi has fuzzy deviation δvi , then the
membership of each element in reason and consequence sets. possibility P l(vi ) of vi being hazard propagation node or
Elements in the given universe are pairwisely compared tak- hazard source is determined by δvi and m(A) together, that
ing into account some certain characteristics (such as occur- is
rence possibility of hazard reasons or consequences accord- P l(vi ) = |δvi |m(A) (6)
ing to field engineering experience). Assuming a number
As the node deviation on hazard propagation path-
pair (fy (x), fx (y)) is a couple in [0, 1] × [0, 1], the so-called
way increases, P l(vi ) increases accordingly, therefore the
dualistic comparative degree can be built. Matrix S is then
changed P l(vi ) can be used to further determine the hazard
established based on Eq.(2), and the minimum value in each
propagation pathway. When there are unobservable nodes,
row of S severs as the fuzzy membership value Ri of the cor-
the fusion values of fuzzy quantitative deviations of child
responding element. Afterward, Ri is sorted descendingly
nodes can be used as the possibility of parent node being
and is prepared for calculating fusion reliability in fusion
hazard source, that is P l(vi ) = m(A), then the hazard rea-
reasoning and decision-making process.
soning will continue along the hazard propagation pathway.
fy (x) When the reason or consequence node is finally searched
f (x/y) = (2) out, assuming the node as vi , with fuzzy membership Rvi
max(fx (y), fy (x))
calculated by Eq.(2) and matrix S, the final fusion reliability
3.3 Fusion reliability of hazard propagation of the HAZOP fuzzy fusion reasoning is
Along the compatible pathway in HAZOP DGK model,
Rl(vi ) = Rvi m(A) (7)
if the parent node has several deviated child nodes, i.e. multi-
hazard sources, the occurrence possibility of deviation of When there are several hazard resources, this approach
parent node can be determined by the entire deviated child can derive the fusion reliability of each hazard reason, which
nodes based on information fusion theory. According to is conducive to safety maintenance decision-making accord-
the composite formula[9] in D-S evidence theory, assuming ing to corresponding priorities.
M1 , M2 , · · · , Mn as several possibility distributive functions
in Ω, their orthogonal sum M = M1 + M2 + · · · + Mn is 4 HAZOP fuzzy fusion reasoning and
defined as follows: decision-making scheme for gas turbine
M (Φ) = 0 compressor system
 
M (A) = c−1 Mi (Ai ), when A = Φ (3) 1)Qualitative HAZOP study. A small multi-disciplinary
∩Ai =A 1≤i≤n team undertakes the analysis, following the system’s process
 flow diagrams (PFDs) and Piping and Instrumentation Di-
where c = 1 −
 ∩Ai =Φ 1≤i≤n Mi (Ai ) = agrams (P&IDs), breaking the design into manageable sec-
∩Ai =Φ 1≤i≤n Mi (Ai ) tions with definite boundaries in the process, and defining
Based on Eq.(3), assuming that parent node vi has a observable and unobservable variables of system. Based on
child node vj on its compatible pathway, i.e. vi → vj (j ∈ HAZOP study procedure, the hazard reasons, consequences,
J, J = j|Ψ(vi )φ(vi , vj )Ψ(vj ) = +, |J| ≥ 1), there is a the- and safety measurements are determined according to differ-
orem as follows[7] : ent variable deviations of system (combination of parameters
Theorem 3.1 Assuming the child nodes with basic reli- and guide words).
abilities as Mj (A) = |δvj | and Mj (Θ) = 1 − |δvj |, respec- 2) DGK model of HAZOP study development. The
tively, the basic reliability m(A) of parent node vi is derived DGK model of HAZOP is developed to simultaneously
as follows: integrate the structure of the system, the variables, and
causal mechanisms (or interdependencies) analysed in step
|J|
   1). Meanwhile, each deviation variable is associated with
m(A) = [(−1)k−1 ( |δvjl |)] (4) an inner node in DGK model, whereas each exogenous fac-
k=1 |lk =k| l∈lk tor (i.e. hazard reason or consequence) is associated with
a terminal node outside the DGK model on the end of haz-
where lk represents k dimensional combination ard propagation pathway. The DGK model structure is con-
|J|
structed by creating the directed edges regarding causal rela-
 tionship among various nodes from reason to consequence.
or m(A) = 1 − 1 − |δvjk | (5)
k=1
Therefore, each hazard propagation pathway is created by
connecting hazard reason node to each deviation node along
Known from theorem 3.1, m(A) is the fusion formula directed edges, and finally reach hazard consequence node.
in D-S evidence theory used for determing of parent node de- 3) Fuzzy quantitative model of HAZOP study develop-
viation, which can be derived from each child node deviation ment. According to the normal range of system inner vari-
δvj . Eqs.(4) and (5), which are mathematically equivalent, able (i.e. inner node), the parameters of fuzzy membership
indicate that the basic reliability of fusion node equals to the function with ridge-shape distribution are determined, which
integration of all the basic reliabilities calculated by mutual is considered the fuzzy quantitative function of inner nodes
HU Jin-qiu, et al./Systems Engineering — Theory & Practice, 2009, 29(8): 153–159

Figure 2. Main hierarchy model of gas turbine compressor system

in system DGK model representing their deviation possibil- tion or maintenance advices are searched out.
ity. Relative comparison approach is adopted to assign quan- 7) Safety plan decision-making. Finally, each hazard
titative fuzzy membership of each exogenous node (hazard propagation pathway, feasible hazard season (including its
reason or consequence node outside DGK model) represent- fusion reliability), possible hazard consequence (including
ing its occurrence possibility. its fusion reliability), and corresponding safety-related ac-
4) Possible hazard consequence reasoning. Online con- tions are output, according to which field safety engineers
dition monitoring provides the state of observable variables are able to make a decision to implement appropriate inspec-
as evidence for reasoning. If there is a deviation happen- tion or maintenance scheme to avoid major accidents.
ing on node Si according to Eq.(1), the searching procedure 5 Case study of gas turbine compressor system
is then taken from the observable deviation node Si down-
wardly, i.e. from deviation nodes to consequence nodes. 5.1 Fuzzy quantitative analysis model of
Fusion reliability of child nodes on the hazard propagation HAZOP analysis
pathway is calculated based on Eq.(4) or (5), then the hazard 1) HAZOP DGK model of gas turbine compressor sys-
occurrence possibility of downstream node is calculated by tem
Eq.(6), and finally the fusion reliability of each possible haz- Based on analytic hierarchy process of gas turbine com-
ard consequence is figured out according to Eq.(7). Above pressor system on “Se-Ning-Lan” gas pipeline, the hierar-
possible hazard consequences are sorted with descending or- chy model of main components with four levels, i.e., system
der and output to client as the final forward fusion reasoning level, subsystem level, equipment level, component level, is
results. shown in Figure 2, taking compressor system, start-up sys-
5) Feasible hazard source (root cause) reasoning. Back- tem, and lubrication system as examples.
ward searching procedure starts from the observable devia- Taking centrifugal compressor subsystem in above hi-
tion node Si upwardly, i.e. from underlining deviation nodes erarchy model for example, HAZOP DGK model is devel-
to reason nodes, and by the same way repeats the calculation oped as shown in Figure 3, where N1 − N7 represent sys-
process of step 4). Finally, the fusion reliabilities of possible tem deviations, which are “higher pressure difference of fil-
hazard reasons are derived and are sorted with descending ter”, “lower lubricating oil pressure”, “lower level of oil
order as output of backward fusion reasoning results. tank”, “higher bearing temperature”, “higher oil tempera-
6) Safety-related action searching. According to the ture”, “higher outlet water temperature”, and “less cooling
comprehensive hazard reasons and consequences output by water” respectively.
quantitative HAZOP analysis, corresponding safety inspec-
HU Jin-qiu, et al./Systems Engineering — Theory & Practice, 2009, 29(8): 153–159

Figure 3. HAZOP DGK model

2) Distribution of occurrence possibility of hazard rea- The conclusion is obtained that the fuzzy membership
son and consequence of set {x1 , x2 , x3 } is {1, 0.833, 0.375}, while the occurrence
Taking the reason node “higher bearing temperature” possibility of hazard consequence nodes can be distributed in
for example, fuzzy membership value of each element the same way.
in hazard reason set is distributed according to Eq.(2)
and matrix S. Assume X as the reason set of “higher 5.2 HAZOP fuzzy fusion reasoning and
bearing temperature”, i.e. X = {x1 , x2 , x3 }, where decision-making of gas turbine compressor system
x1 =“Higher lubricating oil temperature”, x2 =“Smaller
throttle diameter of oil inlet”, and x3 =“Bearing fault”. During the real time on-line condition monitoring of
Three dualistic comparative degrees are established as gas turbine compressor system, the average lubricating oil
(fx2 (x1 ), fx1 (x2 )) = (0.6, 0.5), (fx3 (x2 ), fx2 (x3 )) = temperature was 57◦ C, and lubricating oil pressure was
(0.6, 0.4), (fx3 (x1 ), fx1 (x3 )) = (0.8, 0.3), then the matrix 0.095MPa, all of which have deviated from normal value
S is derived as follows: interval. Traditional HAZOP analysis would indicate be-
⎛ ⎞
1 1 1 low possible hazard reasons (10 reasons) in table 1 and even
⎝ 5/6 1 1 ⎠ show redundant results. Moreover each result is output with-
3/8 4/6 1 out any information about its occurrence possibility, which

Table 1. Result of quantitative HAZOP analysis (feasible hazard reasons with advised safety-related action)

Feasible hazard reasons Fusion reliability Safety-related action required


1. Smaller diameter of oil inlet throttle. 0.8035 1. Checking oil throttle orifice of bearing and increasing
throttle diameter, making the flow of lubricating oil meet
the operation requirement.
2. Higher outlet water temperature. 0.7142 2. Increasing the cooling circulating water.
3. Fault in main oil pump. 0.6829 3. Switching pump for inspection and repair.
4. Insufficient cooling water. 0.6351 4. Increasing the cooling circulating water.
5. Oil pipe rupture or oil leakage at conjunctions. 0.5122 5. Inspection or replacement of pipe section.
6. Bearing clearance is on the small side, caus- 0.4763 6. Inspecting and appropriately adjusting (enlarging) the
ing severe friction and a mass of heat. bearing clearance to decrease the heat caused by friction.
7. Obstruction in oil filter or oil passage way, 0.4000 7. Disassembly checking and cleaning the lubricating oil
which causes oil pressure loss. filter.
8. Deterioration of lubricant. 0.3969 8. Releasing the gas from lubricating oil system or changing
lubricating oil.
9. Bearing fault. 0.3616 9. Checking and repairing or replacing the bearing.
10. Lubricating oil leakage at pipeline and valves. 0.2561 10. Changing conjunction gasket at leak location, tighten-
ing connecting bolt, and making no leakage occurrence.
HU Jin-qiu, et al./Systems Engineering — Theory & Practice, 2009, 29(8): 153–159

Table 2. Result of quantitative HAZOP analysis (possible hazard consequences)

Possible hazard consequences Fusion reliability


1. Oil film is difficult to sustain; bearing will be burnt; seal will be damaged or impeller will be destroyed. 1.3180
2. Shutdown caused by low oil pressure. 0.6829
3. Carbonization of lubricating oil or decreasing lubrication performance. 0.5122

make it difficult for field engineer to take proper inspec- fusion approach, observable node deviation is fuzzily quan-
tion or maintenance action. So Field safety engineers have tified, i.e. node deviation degrees, and occurrence possibili-
to check each HAZOP analysis result sequentially on the as- ties of hazard reasons and consequences are also determined,
sessment list, which is considered as a waste of manpower which solves the problems of false alarm due to quantitative
and material resources, on the other hand during this time- information loss.
consuming inspection, field engineers not only miss the best (2) According to information fusion theory, the inter-
time to maintenance and avoid major accident, but also let action and interdependency among deviation nodes are inte-
system deteriorate severely. grated in the searching process of hazard propagation path-
Based on the HAZOP DGK model shown in Figure 3, way, and the final fusion reliabilities of hazard reasons and
the detailed steps of fuzzy fusion reasoning and decision- consequences are calculated based on the proposed scheme
making are as follows: and then sorted in descending order, which solves the limita-
1) Fuzzy quantification of observable node deviation. tion of hazard identification and safety assessment for com-
The normal value interval of lubricating oil temperature at plex industrial system when there exist multi-hazard sources
system running state is [35, 55]◦ C, while the measured lubri- and multi-deviation nodes. The proposed method can effec-
cating oil temperature was 57◦ C. According to Eq.(1), set- tively avoid the phenomena of “combinatorial explosion”.
ting ε = 5, the quantitative fuzzy deviation of node N5 is Therefore, field safety engineer is able to know the poten-
calculated to be δN5 = 0.7939. In the same way, the normal tial hazards in system, make safety decision quickly and ac-
value interval of lubricating oil pressure is [0.1, 0.15]MPa, curately, in order to avoid major accidents, casualties, and
therefore, setting ε = 5, the quantitative fuzzy deviation of economic losses.
node N2 is then calculated as δN2 = −0.8536. (3) In the future application of the proposed method, the
2) The results of fuzzy fusion reasoning and sorting are parameters of fuzzy quantitative model of HAZOP analysis
shown in Table 1 and Table 2, which indicate the most fea- should be adjusted and modified throughout different phases
sible hazard reason is “Smaller diameter of oil inlet throttle” of the system life cycle, according to the running state char-
corresponding to the largest fusion reliability of 0.8035, and acteristics. Meanwhile, more field case studies are needed
the most possible hazard consequence is ”Oil film is difficult to validate the proposed fuzzy fusion reasoning scheme and
to sustain; bearing will be burnt; seal will be damaged or im- optimize the membership function and the reasoning algo-
peller will be destroyed” corresponding to the largest fusion rithm.
reliability of 1.318.
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