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Tugas 1

T
KLL 5202‐ A
Analisa Resiko d
dan Reliaabilitas 
 
Dosen :
D
Paramaashanti, Ph.D 

 
Gema Mah
G hardika Yogatama 

25
5515003 

  
Progrram Stud
di Teknikk Kelauttan 
Fakultas
F s Teknik Sipil dan Lingku
ungan 
Insttitut Tekknologi B
Bandungg  
2017 
 
 
 
RISK-B
BASED PR
ROCEDURE
E FOR DES
SIGN AND VERIFICA
ATION OF D
DAM SAFE
ETY

M Anhalt1, and G Meon


n1
1. Leichtw
weiss-Institute
e for Hydraulic
c Engineering g and Water R
Resources, D
Dept. Hydrolog
gy, Water
Managem ment and Wate er Protection,, University off Braunschwe
eig, Germanyy

kasan Masala
1. Ringk ah

ew dan hasil dari project ““Risk management of exttreme flood e


per ini merupakan overvie
Pada pap events
(RIMAX)” yang diinisia
asi oleh Kem
menterian Rise
et dan Pendi dikan Jerman
n. Fokus rise
et ini terletak pada
gi risk assessment dan pengembanga
metodolog p an proedur d esain DAM d
ditinjau dari kkegagalan sttruktur
DAM oleh
h beban yan
ng diakibatkan banjir deng
gan studi ka
asus di dua S
Sungai Ruhrr yaitu Bendu
ungan
Mohne da
an Bendungan
n Henne.

Secara garis besar metodologi


m ya
ang digunaka
an dalam rise
et paper ini adalah deng
gan menggun
nakan
metode probabilitas ke
egagalan, den
ngan tinjauan
n bahwa strukktur bendung
gan gagal apa
abila elevasi muka
air banjir melebihi puncak dari struk
ktur bendung
gan. Input varriabel yang diigunakan dala
am analisis resiko,
binasikan tradisional dan komponen berbasis ressiko. Pada G
mengomb Gambar 1 d
ditunjukkan u
urutan
metodolog
gi anallisis me
enejemen res
siko pada pap
per ini.

Gamb
bar 1 Prrosedur mene
ejemen reiko b
bendungan ya
ang digunaka
an

2. Variabel Acak yan


ng Digunaka
an

Terdapat beberapa variabel acak yang


y digunaka
an dalam ana gkinan resiko kegagalan d
alisis kemung desain
an ini yaitu :
bendunga

1. Data
D curah hujjan.
2. Elevasi muka air
a awal pada
a saat mulai te
erjadi banjir.
3. Debit
D banjir.
4. Data
D angin.
5. Kecepatan
K aru
us di area dow
wnstream ben
ndungan.

Data cura
ah hujan digu
unakan untuk
k menentuka
an kemungkin
nan kejadian banjir sintetis di sungai Ruhr.
Sedangka
an elevasi mu
uka air awal, debit banjir dan data angin n untuk memp
na digunakan prediksi kega
agalan
hidro mettereologi des
sain bendung
gan. Kemudia
an keempat d
data tersebut dikombinassikan dengan
n data
kecepatta
an arus untuk memodelkan
n limpasan ba
anjir dan pene
elusuran area
a dampak ban
njir.

3. Param
meter Statisttik dan Bentu
uk Distribusi Acak

Bentuk distribusi acak di dalam pa


aper ini hanya
a tampak darri distribusi de
ebit banjir pa
ada tahap esttimasi
probabilita
as kegagalan di langkah M1,
M (lihat Gam
mbar 1).

4. Persa
amaan Reforrmasi yang Menunjukkan
M n Batas Kega
agalan

Persamaa
an reformasi yang menun as kegagalan ada di taha
njukkan bata ap modul M2
2 yaitu pene
entuan
probabilita
as hidro metteorology, dim
mana kegaga
alannya dinila
ai apabila mu
uka air banjir melebihi pu
uncak
bendunga
an, ilustrasi ditunjukkan Ga
ambar 2.

ho + hf + hR > Hmax

dimana :

ho = Elevasi muka
a air awal pad
da saat mulai terjadi banjirr.

hf = Elevasi Debit banjir.

hR = Elevasi angin
n kondisional

Gambar 2 Penentuan
n probabilitas hidro meteorrologi
Solusi teo
oritis dari prob
babilitas overttopping (Pf) diberikan
d den
ngan integral rrangkap tiga, dimana 3 va
ariabel
ketinggian
n diasumsikan
n independen
n.

Namun karena
k solus
si teoritis tid
dak practicall, sehingga simulasi Mo
onte Carlo digunakan.de
engan
penyederhanaan

Pf = 1 – P(nWL)
P

dimana :

Pf = Probabilitas kegagalan

P (nWL) = Probabilitas
s dari elevasi air aktual diba
agi dengan e levasi puncakk spillway.

mpulan
5. Kesim

Prosedur berbasis risik


ko ilmiah diva
alidasi dan prraktis untuk d
desain, dan vverifikasi keam
manan bendu
ungan
embangkan dengan mengg
telah dike gabungkan komponen
k tra
adisional dan berbasis risikko. Konsep d
desain
berbasis risiko dan ko
ognisi dari ap
plikasi untuk beberapa stu
udi kasus akkan mendukung perkemba
angan
ut dari desain standar.
lebih lanju

.Prosedurr ini memung


gkinkan untuk
k evaluasi ke ndungan sehubungan den
eamanan ben ngan risiko ssecara
signifikan dengan prraktis dan ekonomis.
e Hal
H ini juga
a dapat digu
unakan sebagai bagian dari
grasikan man
menginteg najemen risik
ko banjir dari seluruh DAS
S proyek. Se
ehingga selan
njutnya peme
erintah
yang berw
wenang bisa menyiapkan langkah-lang
gkah pengura ngan risiko d
dampak banjirr akibar kega
agalan
struktur be
endungan.
Germany are necessary to obtain practicable and standardized risk-based procedures which can be used
4th International Symposium on Flood Defence: for the design of new dams and also for a safety verification of existing dams. In the following chapters,
Managing Flood Risk, Reliability and Vulnerability the concept of such a comprehensive procedure will be described. Within this paper only the key aspects
Toronto, Ontario, Canada, May 6-8, 2008 and approaches as well as a brief presentation of some results can be illustrated.

2. CONCEPT

The submodules Mi of a risk-based procedure against dam failure caused by flood loads are shown in
Figure 1. The procedure includes a risk analysis and assessment embedded in a dam risk management.
The assessment includes the estimation of failure probabilities (M1, M2), potential dam breaching (M3),
downstream propagation of flood hydrographs caused by a dam break (M4), damage analysis (M5), and
the determination of risk indices (M6).
RISK-BASED PROCEDURE FOR DESIGN AND VERIFICATION OF DAM
SAFETY
M Anhalt1, and G Meon1
1. Leichtweiss-Institute for Hydraulic Engineering and Water Resources, Dept. Hydrology, Water
Management and Water Protection, University of Braunschweig, Germany

ABSTRACT: In this paper an overview and the results of the project “Risk-based methods to guarantee
adequate flood safety for reservoirs” are presented. The project is part of the program on ”Risk
management of extreme flood events (RIMAX)” funded by the German Federal Ministry for Research and
Education. The focus lies upon risk assessment methodologies and the development of advanced design
procedures regarding dam failure caused by flood loads.

Key Words: dam safety; risk analysis; reliability; dam breach; flood

1. INTRODUCTION

Flood events of recent years clarified that hydraulic structures like dams impose a risk of failure with Figure 1: Comprehensive risk-based procedure embedded in a risk management of a dam
potential disastrous consequences. Absolute safety of a dam cannot be achieved. Therefore methods of
risk-based design of dams become more important. Dams are systems with large hazard potential due to
the high potential energy accumulated within the water body. Statistic evaluations show that dam failures The developed procedure includes three types of hydro-meteorological failure of a reservoir-dam system:
are mainly caused by overtopping of the dam crest. According to Hable (2001) 35% of dam failures large spillway discharges (failure type 1), overtopping without dam breaching (failure type 2) and
occurred due to overtopping. This failure type is essential to be addressed in dam design and verification overtopping with dam breaching (failure type 3). Following investigations of existing methods, suitable
of dam safety. Many countries are currently exploring the possibilities of incorporating risk assessment as approaches were adopted and partially modified as described in the following chapter.
a part of their dam safety guidelines. Several required methods, models and applications of risk analysis
of dam safety are still being reviewed and developed. Fundamental contributions of comprehensive dam
risk assessment in terms of a Portfolio Risk Assessment can be found in Bowles (1987, 2006). 3. MODULES OF THE PROCEDURE
International trends and progresses are summarized e.g. in McGrath (2000) and DEFRA (2002). In
Germany, Meon (1989) and Bachmann et al. (2007) developed comprehensive risk-based procedures
applied to dams. 3.1 Synthetic flood event

The German DIN 19700 standard represents the state of the art regarding dams and diversion structures The first module of the procedure is the determination of synthetic flood events (inflow into reservoirs). A
in Germany. A complex safety proof concept has been introduced in the revised standard from 2004. stochastic model based on Treiber (1977) for the simulation of reservoir inflows is used. Observed daily
Safety requirements for extreme floods and earthquakes are considered. The new safety proof concept flows covering a period of 46 years were used to apply the model. It consists of two parts: a stochastic
considers conditions beyond the current design limits. Thus, the new DIN 19700 offers the possibility of simulation of input pulses, and a deterministic part that transforms rainfall into runoff. The pulse
qualitative risk assessment in dam safety evaluation (Sieber, 2004). However, there is still a lack of generation model has cyclic variable parameters with one parameter set for each month. After the
methods and guidelines to assess the residual risk and appropriate measures to minimize the risk of dam calibration for two study areas (see chapter 4), the model yields artificial series of reservoir inflow with the
failure. Statements and guidelines concerning the risk of dam overtopping do not yet exist in a statistical properties of the historical records.
comprehensive form. Therefore, further investigations of risk analysis of reservoir-dam systems in

154-1 154-2

3.2 Probability of hydro-meteorological failure Figure 2 summarizes the procedure for the three main load sizes h0, hR and hF. The main output obtained
from submodule M2 is the total height of the water level with respect to the flood routing in the reservoir
The total water level in the reservoir is a result of three random variables: the water level at the beginning corresponding to certain probabilities Pi(nWL). The water level WL is specified as a normalized factor
of a flood event h0, the water level hR resulting from the retention of a flood event (inflow Qin), and the nWL (actual water level WL divided by spillway crest elevation). By doing so, the results of different
corresponding and coincidental wind related freeboard hF. In the proposed concept (see Figure 2) the scenarios and different dams become comparable. Then the failure probability of overtopping PF can be
hydro-meteorological failure occurs if: expressed by:

[1] h0 + hR + hF > Hmax. [3] PF 1  P(nWL)

3.3 Dam breach modelling

Models used to predict breach formation vary in complexity and basis. Breach models can be divided in:
non-physically based (empirical) models, semi-physically based (analytical and parametric) models and
physically based models. An overview is given in Mohamed (2002). There are many models for detailed
dam-break analysis. However, the calculated results often include considerable uncertainties.

In this study a simplified dam breach model was developed on the basis of Meon (1989). In the model the
discharge is estimated by combining stochastic, parametric and physical approaches. The initial water
level of the reservoir is directly integrated in the dam breach model from submodule M2. In case of critical
conditions the calculation procedure of dam breach modelling starts. The outflow hydrograph is simulated
using a Monte Carlo technique. The initial top width and depth of the initial breach b0 is considered as a
percentage of the potential maximum breach width bmax. This value is assumed as a random variable
ranging between a minimum value b1,max and a maximum value b2,max based on dam break statistics.
Different probability density functions can be assumed for bmax. A stochastic outflow hydrograph Qi(t) is
computed for the generated initial top width. The algorithm is divided into three parts: calculation of
discharge using a broad crested weir formula, calculation of sediment transport using the Meyer-Peter-
Müller transport formula, and calculation of the breach growth using parametric breach curves. Based on
a statistical analysis of the obtained outflow hydrographs, a representative stochastic outflow hydrograph
is derived.
Figure 2: Chart of submodule M2 – determination of hydro-meteorological probability

The theoretical solution of the overtopping probability PF is given by a triple integral (Pohl, 1997), in which 3.4 Flood Routing
the three heights h0, hR and hF are assumed to be independent (Equation 2):
To investigate the consequences of a dam failure, information about the hydrodynamic indicators (water
[2] PF P(h0  hR  hf ! b) ³³³ fh0 (h0 ) ˜ dh0 ˜ fhR (hR ) ˜ dhR ˜ fhF (hF ) ˜ dhF depths, inundated areas and the flow velocities downstream of the dam) is required. Within the study, the
2D model MeadFlow was applied. It is a finite element model optimally adapted to simulate steady or
unsteady flows of complex river systems. Characterized by short computation time and little numerical
A closed solution of the integral is not practical, so that a Monte Carlo Simulation is used. The basic
instability (Leismann and Meon, 2002), MeadFlow provides inundation areas of high accuracy. Applying
concept follows the one developed by Pohl (1997) and modified by Hable (2001). The major difference of
sophisticated numerical algorithms, the Saint Venant equations are efficiently solved by neglecting the
the concept refers to the main load size which defines hR. Generated daily inflows from submodule M1
convective inertial term. If necessary the full equation can be applied. The use of this model for dam
with a length of at least one million years are used. If necessary, the daily inflows can be disaggregated in
failure studies could be verified. It is suitable for both, the failures of overtopping scenarios with or without
smaller time steps. It is possible to simulate the complete time series or to consider every annual flood
dam break. To validate the applicability of the model the failure of the Möhne Dam was used. During the
with differentiation based on the highest peak discharge or the highest volume. At the beginning of every
World War II the Möhne Dam failed due to intensive bombing. Immense damages were caused and 1200
flood event the initial water level h0 must be determined. The level h0 depends on the reservoir
people died (Euler, 2007). The peak discharge of the flood wave accounted for almost 9.000 m³/s.
management and previous floods or droughts. By using historical data of measured daily water levels,
empirical cumulative density functions of the initial water level were determined on a monthly basis. Thus,
The downstream hydraulics of the flood wave was simulated using the model described above. Figure 3
the variation of the initial water level within a year is considered and adequate to the generated inflow
shows the good conformance of the flood extent.
which occurs in a certain month.

On the basis of several series of observed wind velocities and corresponding wind directions, an
applicable cumulative density function of freeboard has been evaluated to determine the third random
variable hF.

154-3 154-4
4. APPLICATION

The risk-based procedure was applied to two existing dams located in the Ruhr river basin in Germany:

x The “Möhne Dam” is a gravity dam with a height of approx. 40 m and a crest length of 650 m.
The reservoir has a capacity of 134.5 million m³ and a drainage area of 436 km². Some
smaller villages are located downstream the dam. The river Möhne joins the river Ruhr after
12 km.

x The “Henne Dam” is an earthfill dam with a height of 60 m and a crest length of 376 m. The
reservoir has a capacity of 38.4 million m³ and a drainage area of 98 km². An urbanized area
having about 30.000 inhabitants is located directly downstream the dam. The river Henne
joins the river Ruhr after 2 km.

For the existing systems, the estimated failure probabilities of overtopping (failure type 2 without dam
breaching) are in the order of 2·10-6 per year or less. In order to show the applicability of the procedure,
additional virtual scenarios (e.g. changed spillway capacities, different reservoir operating rules, etc.)
were created in order to get results for all modules of the risk-based procedure. Figure 4 shows two of
these scenarios applied to the Möhne Dam.

Figure 3: Aerial photograph (Euler, 2007) of area downstream of the Möhne Dam
(destruction of dam on May 17th 1943) with simulated extension of inundated area (blue)

3.5 Consequences and risk parameters

Many methods for determining the consequences of a dam failure exist. Almost all of them involve a
mapping of the inundated area as a result of specific types of failure as well as the identification of the
number of people (population at risk), and the infrastructure and landuse in the inundated area. Dam
failure consequences are estimated according to the population at risk (PAR) and the financial impact.
The socio-economic and the ecological impacts are assessed subjectively (from insignificant to extreme).
For this, hydrodynamic indicators obtained from the 2D simulations were superimposed with landuse data
and associated damage functions by using a geographic information system (GIS). The damage functions
are formulated for different categories of land use like residential areas, industry, agriculture or
infrastructure. A relative damage is calculated for each category. The monetary value of the direct
damage was obtained by using the capital value of the categories. For example Messner (2007) presents
a good overview about current possibilities and recommendations for flood damage analysis. By means
of analyzing damage data of the flood event in 2002 of the river Elbe, the damage functions could be
improved for infrastructures.
Figure 4: Cumulative distribution function of simulated maximum water levels for different variants
As a result of the developed risk-based procedure the following risk parameters can be derived:
The left diagram (a.) displays the results of a scenario with varying capacities of the spillway. In case of a
x Failure probabilities reduction of the spillway capacity to 50 %, the probability of overtopping the dam crest (see Equation 3)
increases to about 11·10-6 per year.
x Risk as a product of failure probability and potential damage
The right diagram (b.) displays the results of a scenario with different operating rules. A comparison of the
x People at risk (PAR) curves (Variant 4 A and 4 B) shows, that the mode of operating strongly influences the probability of
failure type 1 (spillway discharges). Due to the large flood protection storage, the influence on the other
x Subjective risk in the field of socio-economic and ecological impact failure types is comparatively low.

154-5 154-6

5. CONCLUSION AND OUTLOOK Mohamed, M.A.A. 2002. Embankment Breach Formation and Modelling Methods. PhD. Thesis, The
Open University, HR Wallingford, UK.
A scientifically validated and practicable risk-based procedure for design and verification of dam safety
has been developed by combining traditional and risk-based components. The risk-based design concept Pohl, R. 1997. Überflutungssicherheit von Talsperren. Wasserbauliche Mitteilungen, Heft 11, Institut für
and cognitions from the application to several case studies will support further developments of design Wasserbau und Technische Hydromechanik, TU Dresden. Germany. (in German).
standards. The procedure allows for a safety evaluation of dams with respect to risk on a practicably and
economically significant basis. It can also be used as a part of an integrate flood risk management of the Sieber, H.U. 2005. Was bringt die neue DIN 19700 für die Sicherheitsbewertung? Wasserwirtschaft, Vol.
entire project river basin. It further provides tools for the selection of risk reduction measures like 95, No. 1/2, 18-23. (in German).
emergency plans.
Treiber, B., Plate, E.J. 1977. A stochastic model for the simulation of daily flows. Hydrological Sciences,
Bull. 22 (1), pp. 175-192.
6. ACKNOWLEDGEMENT

The results in this paper are based on the research project “Risk based methods to guarantee adequate
flood safety for reservoirs” funded by the German Ministry for Education and Research (BMBF). The
project is part of the program on ”Risk management of extreme flood events (RIMAX)” and was
undertaken in cooperation with the Institute for Water and River Basin Management of the University of
Karlsruhe, the Ruhrverband (Ruhr River Association) and the State Reservoir Administration of the State
of Saxony, Germany.

7. REFERENCES

Bachmann, D., Kutschera, G., Niemeyer, M., Köngeter, J. 2007. Risk assessment for hydraulic structures:
Procedure and application. In: Reducing the Vulnerability of Societies Against Water Related Risks at
the Basin Scale (ed. by Schumann, A., Pahlow, M.). IWRM 2006. Bochum, Germany, September
2006. IAHS-Red Book, IAHS Press, Oxfordshire, UK.

Bowles, D.S. 1987. A Comparison of Methods for Integrated Risk Assessment of Dams. In: Engineering
Reliability and Risk in Water Resources, L. Duckstein and E. Plate (Eds.), M. Nijhoff, Dordrecht, The
Netherlands, pp. 147-173.

Bowles, D.S. 2006. Dam Safety Portfolio Risk Assessment And Management. US Society on Dams
Annual Conference, San Antonio, Texas.

DEFRA 2002. Reservoir Safety - Floods and Reservoir Safety Integration. Department for Environment,
Food and Rural Affairs (DEFRA). (Final Report, Ref. XU0168 Rev A05).

Euler, H. 2007. Wasserkrieg. Motorbuch. Stuttgart, Germany. (in German).

Hable, O. 2001. Multidimensional probabilistic design concept for the estimation of the overtopping
probability of dams. Schriftenreihe zur Wasserwirtschaft 37, Technische Universität Graz. Austria.

Leismann, M., Meon, G. 2002. Das Modell MeadFlow für die praxisgerechte 2D-Modellierung von
Strömungen in Flusslandschaften. Wasserwirtschaft, Vol. 92, No. 6. (in German).

McGrath, S. 2000. To study international practice and use of risk assessment in dam management. The
Winston Churchill memorial trust of Australia.

Meon, G. 1989. Sicherheitsanalyse einer Talsperre für den Hochwasserfall. – Mitteilungen des Instituts
für Hydrologie und Wasserwirtschaft, Universität Karlsruhe (TH), Heft 35. (in German).

Messner F., Penning-Rowsell E., Green C., Meyer V., Tunstall S., van der Veen A., 2007. Evaluating
flood damages: guidance and recommendations on principles and methods. FLOODsite-Report T09-
06-01, 176 pp.

154-7 154-8