Required CO2 Reduction - an index of national responsibility for future

　To restrict the global warming level through the international agreement it is important to
quantify each nation's responsibility. Of course there must be a lot of quantification way and the
choice of way itself should be a political issue.
But I will show that we can get the result simply if we treat CO2 emission as equal human rights.
Only three players (Annex I countries, the US and Republic of China) are so big that the discussion
on the others can be postpone.
"Required CO2 reduction" is an index that make the responsibility clear.

1. definition
(1) global ceiling (global emission target)
According to the IPCC and other global warming specialists CO2 emission amount in the
world in the year 2050 should be a half of that in 1992. "2050 global emission ceiling" stands for
this amount in this paper.

(2) country ceiling (emission target for each country)

The global ceiling is to be assigned for each country. I insist we should take the "per capita
approach". Basically the per capita approach means to set the country ceiling share in the global
ceiling with the same percentage of each population share.
Here most people may expect me to get some estimated country population in 2050 to
calculate the share of the population and the emission ceiling. But I don't agree because of two
reasons.
First of all global resource like pure water, minerals, renewable energy, etc. is limited so
strictly that all country should manage their population stable. Such a simple rule can make the
population management more complicated.
The second reason is smaller and technical one. It is bette to fix the target at the first process
to avoid fruitless political effort to get bigger ceiling share.
I believe we should take the accessible nearest population data to calculate the ceiling, and
should not change it only because of the annual population change.

(3) required reduction

Now we can calculate the "required reduction" easily. The global required reduction for 2050
is the difference between current emission and the ceiling above. Then each country get its required
reduction allocated by population share.

2. data
I get the data from CDIAC, Carbon Dioxide Information Analysis Center (*1). They provides
"Fossil-Fuel CO2 Emissions by Nation" data at their homepage (*2)(*3).

3. result
I show the result of those calculation in the table 1 and figure 1. The "big three", Annex I
countries, the US, and China are responsible for about 83% of global required reduction. table 2
and figure 2 shows the inside of Annex I.
So international global warming discussion should focus on those big players' obligation.
Discussions about the others' behavior can take place later.
table 1

figure 1
table 2

figure 2

(*1) http://cdiac.ornl.gov/
(*2) http://cdiac.ornl.gov/trends/emis/tre_coun.html
(*3) CDIAC does not provide their population data directly. So I calculated it forom country total
and per capita CO2 emissions.
(*4) annex1: the countries that are included in EU27 and/or listed in the Annex I in the FCCC
except for the US.
(*5) others(positive): total amount of the countries whose required reduction is greater than zero but
less than 100 Mt-CO2.
(*6) others(negative): total amount of other countries whose required reduction is less than zero.