Autonomous vehicles will have a significant impact on cities around the world.

With
each passing week, new auto-pilots are introduced and companies show off latest
developments in AV technology. AVs have taken center stage in pursuit of breaking
the monogamic car-centric urban design and planning. Futuristic urban thinkers
consider self-driving vehicles as the foundation of urban transportation utopia
where mobility is cheap and clean.

Autonomous vehicle technology is rapidly spreading, and the window for action is
closing. The adaptation of AV will be much faster than the adaptation of Internal
combustion cars back in 20th century. Now it's a race against time if the cities
can pull their infrastructure together to accommodate these cars before they flood
the roads.

A study conducted by the University of California Davis�s Institute of

Transportation Studies and the Institute for Transportation and Development Policy
(ITDP) shows three possible scenarios for vehicle use by 2050. In the Business-as-
usual scenario, we'll continue using the 20th-century technology which includes
private ownership of internal combustion engines. The number of privately owned
vehicles will grow to 2.1 billion by 2050 with 4600 megatonnes of carbon emission.
In "Two revolutions" (2R) scenario, the electric cars will start dominating the
roads by 2030, and automated cars will become a norm by 2050. Still, the private
ownership will soar, and the number of vehicles on the road will increase to 2.1
billion by 2050 with 1700 megatonnes of Carbon emission. In "Three revolutions"
(3R) scenario, we'll not only adopt 2R technology but also promote ride sharing
culture with on-demand availability. Urban infrastructure will focus more on
walking and cycling. The number of vehicles will plummet to 0.5 billion by 2050
with only 700 megatonnes of carbon emission.

United States, Europe, China, and India are going to be the major contributor of
Carbon emission by 2050. To prevent two-degree Celsius rise in global temperature,
countries will have to cut their carbon emission by half for proper implementation
of Paris agreement. If we look at the U.S greenhouse emissions chart by economic
sector for 2015, Electricity leads it with 29% share, while Transportation's
contribution is 27%.

Lewis Fulton, co-director of the Institute of Transportation Studies� Sustainable

Transportation Energy Pathways (STEPS) program at UC Davis, expressed his views on
how much urban transportation effects the climate as �Cars in cities are like one-
tenth of [the transportation] number,� Fulton says. �Cars in general, is probably
one-fifth of transportation�s carbon footprint.� Urban transportation factors
gravely in the climate change equation. Electric Autonomous Vehicle Technology is
the only way to conclude the chapter of urban transportation's share in the climate
change.

Right now U.S is on target for one million electric cars on the roads. Remaining
299 million are conventional vehicles with an average age of 11 years. A complete
turnover is still going to take 15 to 20 years and around 40 years for an entirely
driverless car world. Ride sharing plays a significant role in reducing the carbon
impact by 80%. Services like Uber and Lyft aren't the feasible solution; we'll have
to rely on mass transit systems like subways, metros, and trains.

Apart from reducing global warming and preventing climate change, AVs promise
various other benefits in an urban infrastructure.

AVs will revolutionize the intra-city travel. Due to their very nature, AVs will be
compact and space efficient making them perfect for urban use. They will minimize
the need for parking spaces, reduce lane spacing and open up more living space in
houses.
Within 15 years, the world will have more than 1.4 million people with age over 60
years. With limited mobility options due to aging, the AVs will keep the elderly
mobile and independent.

As it is an emerging technology, the cities will have the upper hand in regulating
the market and making the policies. Cities can set the rules in favor of public by
leveraging manufacturers to focus on the needs of city and underserved population.

One school of thought argues that the rise of electric AVs will increase the
traffic and sprawl due to much lower cost of traveling. People will use their self-
driving cars to run frivolous errands, and they might produce rebound effect
increasing the energy consumption. They also assume that the transition to cleaner
energy is going to be slower if it comes through electrification of individual
vehicles. It is also not possible to make sure that all the energy comes from
carbon neutral sources which diminish the likelihood of cleaner energy. Harsh
realities like high energy consumption, soaring carbon emission, and snarled up
traffic may prove to be a barricade in the way if AVs are used just to encourage
more driving.

Ex-mayor of New York City Michael Bloomberg is very excited about the advent of
Autonomous vehicles, but he also has his eye on the critics. Bloomberg
Philanthropies is working with Aspen Institute to provide the mayors of different
cities a platform to work together with senior leaders and experts. Their goal is
to overcome the difficulties in the way of complete transformation. Mr. Bloomberg
said in the report, Taming the Autonomous Vehicle: A Primer for Cities, �If Mayors
collaborate with one another, and with partners in the private sector, they can
improve people�s lives in ways we can only imagine today.�

We need to focus on the best case scenarios to maximize the good and minimize the
bad. Cities should tap all the resources available to them. A complete turnover is
going to need the involvement of all the stakeholders including policy experts and
investors at every level to come up with feasible solutions.