Journal of Petroleum Science and Engineering ∎ (∎∎∎∎) ∎∎∎–∎∎∎

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Journal of Petroleum Science and Engineering

journal homepage: www.elsevier.com/locate/petrol

Forecasting OPEC crude oil production using a variant

Multicyclic Hubbert Model
Mohsen Ebrahimi 1, Nahid Cheshme Ghasabani n
Faculty of Economics and Social Sciences, Bu-Ali Sina University, Hamedan, Iran

art ic l e i nf o a b s t r a c t

Article history: In recent years, the economic and political aspects of energy problems have prompted many researchers
Received 11 September 2014 and analysts to focus their attention on the Hubbert Peak Theory with the aim of forecasting future
Accepted 9 April 2015 trends in oil production. In this paper, a predictive model based on a variant of the multi-cyclic Hubbert
approach is applied to forecast future trend in OPEC oil production. Moreover, a model that attempts to
JEL classification: contribute in this regard is presented; it is based on a variant of the well-known Hubbert curve for OPEC
Q410 oil production. The model is simple, accurate, and totally data driven which allows a continuous
Q470 updating once new data are available. The results of the analysis for 12 major oil producing countries
suggest that OPEC ultimate recoverable resource would be as much as 1271 Gb. OPEC holds about 72/6%
Keywords:
Multiple-Hubbert model of the world crude oil reserves. Our study also indicates that OPEC crude oil production peak will occur
Ultimate recoverable resource in 2028 at a production rate of 18.85 Gb/Year.
OPEC peak production & 2015 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.
Oil peak forecasts

1. Introduction the availability of oil is a very relevant problem at present, because

Oil is the most important source of energy. According to 2013
BP (British Petroleum) statistical report, oil accounted for 33.1% of
the world primary energy consumption in 2012. Despite the other
sources of energy (like natural gas and coal), its transportation cost
is negligible with respect to its price. Therefore, it can be exported
to any desired destination and it has an international market.
OPEC is the main source of crude oil. About 72.6% of the world oil
reserves and 43.2% of the world oil production belongs to this
region (British Petroleum Statistical Review of World Energy,
1965–2010).
Therefore, any instability and reduction in production rate of this
region will affect the global economy. Unfortunately, alternative
energy sources are not free from disadvantages and limitations:
renewable sources are constrained by their inherent intermittent
nature and – in the case of solar and wind power systems – have
high specific investment costs (per kW of installed capacity);
nuclear power is almost exclusively used for electricity generation,
which represents about one-third of the world’s final energy
consumption. New technologies based on other energy sectors like
hydrogen (e.g. fuel cells) are still in the R&D stage. Thus, the
importance of fossil fuels is unquestionable. In a wider context,
n
Corresponding author.
E-mail addresses: mm-ebrahimi@basu.ac.ir (M. Ebrahimi),
nahid.ghasabany@gmail.com (N. Cheshme Ghasabani).
1
Associate professor of economics.
oil, like other fossil fuels, has a limited lifespan. In this paper, a
model to estimate the year in which OPEC oil production will reach
its maximum (peak)is proposed. A “bell-shaped” production curve
of a mineral resource is always obtained except for very special
assumptions (Bardi, 2005). Recently, several investigators such as
Laherrere (1997), Campbell (2002), Bentley (2002), Maggio and
Cacciola (2009), Sorrell et al. (2010) have used Hubbert model to
predict world oil production. In this paper, using a modified
multiple-Hubbert curve, the long-term oil production of OPEC is
estimated. Here, the main focus is on the time of near future peak.
Each country will have its own prediction model; then, the world
model will be determined by combining the models of all countries.
2. Methodology
Hubbert (1956) in his famous paper proposed a general
approach known as “Hubbert Peak Theory”. Using historical oil
production data of US lower 48 states, he predicted the trend of US
oil production correctly. Based on Hubbert’s investigation, the
trend of oil production follows a bell shaped curve. It grows,
reaches a maximum (peak), and then gradually declines to zero.
Meanwhile, the Hubbert theory is applicable for a region with a
single peak. If the region experiences more than one peak, due to
economical, political or technical reasons, the Hubbert method
should be modified to adjust the historical production. Laherrere
(1997, 2000), Holland (2006), Rehrl and Friedrich (2006), Maggio

http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.petrol.2015.04.010
0920-4105/& 2015 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Please cite this article as: Ebrahimi, M., Cheshme Ghasabani, N., Forecasting OPEC crude oil production using a variant Multicyclic
Hubbert Model. J. Petrol. Sci. Eng. (2015), http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.petrol.2015.04.010i
2 M. Ebrahimi, N. Cheshme Ghasabani / Journal of Petroleum Science and Engineering ∎ (∎∎∎∎) ∎∎∎–∎∎∎

and Cacciola (2009) proposed a multi-cycle model with several zero deviation. It is defined as
peaks. This kind of approach to Hubbert theory is often called as qffiffiffiffiffiffiffiffiffiffiffiffiffiffiffiffiffiffiffiffiffiffiffiffiffiffiffiffiffiffiffi
P
multiple-Hubbert modeling. ðP act  P cal Þ2
RMSE ¼ ð8Þ
The official data from the OPEC (Organization of Petroleum n
Exporting Countries) (1913–1964), the British Petroleum Statistical where Pact and Pcal represent the actual and calculated production
Review of World Energy (1965–2010) are used to forecast OPEC oil rates, respectively, and n is the number of data points.
production trend. The goodness of fit of different countries’ models is appraised
Laherrere (2000) described Hubbert curve by the following using the coefficient of variation factor, CV, which is defined as the
equation: ratio of the root mean squares of errors, RMSE, of each country’s
2pm model to its peak production rate
P¼ ð1Þ
1 þ k  cosh ½bðt  t m Þ RMSE
CV ¼ ð9Þ
PMAX
2P M
Pm ¼ ð2Þ The goodness of fit of all models is arbitrarily classified as
K þ1
excellent, very good, good, or poor. A certain country’s model has
where P is the annual production in billion barrels for year t, pm is an excellent fit if its coefficient of variation, CV, is less than the
the peak production which is the maximum point of the curve, tm mean, μ, of all countries minus their standard deviation, σ, (CVo
is the year of the peak production, kr1 is a constant and b is the (μ σ)). This criterion indicates that the model accurately fits the
slope of the curve which can be calculated by Eq. (3). data. If the CV of the country’s model falls between the mean minus
pffiffiffiffiffiffiffiffiffiffiffiffiffi one standard deviation and the mean plus one standard deviation,
4P M lnð1 þ 1  K 2 Þ  ln K (μ σ)oCVo(μþσ), this implies that the fitness is very good. If the
U¼ pffiffiffiffiffiffiffiffiffiffiffiffiffi ð3Þ
b 1 K2 CV is between the mean plus one standard deviation and the mean
plus three standard deviations, (μþσ)oCVo(μþ3σ), this indicates
b a parameter which accounts for the slope of the curve.
that the fitness is good. If the CV is greater than or equal to the
Where bi for i¼ 1…N are the slope of each cycle.
mean plus three standard deviations, CVZ(μþ3σ), this suggests
The area under the curve is equal to U, where U represents the
that the model is poor, and the generated values have a great
“estimated ultimate recovery”
deviation from the actual data (Sami Nashawi et al., 2010).
Eq. (1) is suitable for one cycle production. Oil production in
many countries such as France, Netherlands, United Kingdom and
2.1. Data analysis
Iran cannot be reproduced with a single Hubbert cycle (Laherrere,
1997). Therefore, based on the suggested equation of Laherrere
A total of 12 forecasting models, each representing one of the
(Eq. (1)), Maggio and Cacciola (2009) proposed a variant of
investigated countries, were developed. Historical production data
multiple-Hubbert curve to forecast world oil production that has
for each country were scrutinized, and the number of production
the capability to forecast multi-cycle production trends. Their
cycles was determined on the basis of initial data examination. At a
approach is as below:
later stage of the modeling process, additional cycles were some-
XN 2P Mi times required to have a more accurate fitness. The multi-cyclic
P¼ ð4Þ
i¼1 1 þ ki cosh ½bðt  t mi Þ model as presented by Eq. (1) was solved using a nonlinear least-
squares numerical computation technique with initial guess for the
where
qffiffiffiffiffiffiffiffiffiffiffiffiffi unknown parameters. Each production cycle has three parameters
2 k, pmax, and tmax, that need to be calculated.
4P Mi lnð1 þ 1  ki Þ  lnðki Þ
Ui ¼ qffiffiffiffiffiffiffiffiffiffiffiffiffiffi ð5Þ Currently, OPEC comprises Algeria, Angola, Ecuador, Iran, Iraq,
bi 2
1  ki Kuwait, Libya, Nigeria, Qatar, Saudi Arabia, United Arab Emirates
(UAE), and Venezuela. Even though Angola joined the organization
XN in 2007, its production will be included in the analysis since the
URR ¼ i¼1
Ui ð6Þ
forecasting period will extend beyond 2007. OPEC’s actual produc-
tion was mainly unrestricted until the 1973 Arab oil embargo. Since
2P M
Pm ¼ ð7Þ then, the production flattened at around 30 MMSTB/D until 1979,
K þ1
when the Iranian revolution occurred. The average price of the U.S.
They assumed that the world oil production has two cycles crude oil increased from $12.64/bbl in 1979 to $21.59/bbl in 1980
(N ¼ 2). The first cycle is for the peak oil in the late 1970s with a and then to $31.77/bbl in 1981 because of a shortage in the crude oil
constant URR (ultimate recoverable resource) of 150 Gb that was supply during the Iran–Iraq war. OPEC countries attempted to
calculated by Laherrere (2000). The second cycle can be calculated maintain high oil price by controlling the oil production when the
by subtracting URR of the world from URR of the first cycle demand fell. As a consequence of this strategy, the oil production
(150 Gb). Therefore, independent and fitting parameters are PM1, dropped from 30 MMSTB/D in 1979 to about 16 MMSTB/D in 1985.
k1, tM1, PM2, k2 and tM2. This move was supposed to raise the crude oil prices; however, the
To forecast OPEC’s oil production trend, first of all, URR should reduction in OPEC production was counterbalanced by an increase
be estimated. In this paper, URR of OPEC has been estimated by in the production of non-OPEC countries, such as Mexico, China,
adding the cumulative production and proven reserves. After U.S. (Alaskan fields), Canada, and Western European countries
calculating URR, OPEC’s oil production trend has been forecasted (North Sea fields), along with few OPEC countries that did not
by Eq. (1). In this stage, the value of URR should be fixed while abide by their production quota. This behavior resulted in a sharp
other parameters (ultimates of each cycle Ui, peak values PMi, peak decrease and fluctuation in the oil price. The average price of the U.
years tMi and constants Ki) should be used as initial guess values. S. crude oil decreased from $24.09/bbl in 1985 to $12.51/bbl in 1986.
All of the calculations have been done by Excel as fitting software. Up to 2005, OPEC continues the post-1985 production trend where
The optimum values of the parameters were obtained by the production increased from 16MMSTB/D to 31.1MMSTB/D. As of
minimizing the root-mean-square of the errors, RMSE, of the 2005, OPEC’s share of the world crude oil production was about 45%
production rates. RMSE is a measure of data dispersion around (Sami Nashawi et al., 2010) (Fig. 1).

Please cite this article as: Ebrahimi, M., Cheshme Ghasabani, N., Forecasting OPEC crude oil production using a variant Multicyclic
Hubbert Model. J. Petrol. Sci. Eng. (2015), http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.petrol.2015.04.010i
 M. Ebrahimi, N. Cheshme Ghasabani / Journal of Petroleum Science and Engineering ∎ (∎∎∎∎) ∎∎∎–∎∎∎ 3

2.1.1. Iran 120

Fig. 2 shows forecasted Iran’s oil production trend if Iran would
not face any international limitations to develop its oilfields. The 100 Field A
first peak has occurred due to the pre-revolution strike of oil Field B
workers. The revolution was followed by Iraq–Iran war that led to 80

Production
Field C
lack of investment in newly discovered and mature oilfields.
60 Field D
Second peak (Fig. 2) demonstrates a state that if Iran would have
not faced international sanctions after the war, it was capable to Field E
increase its production rate as shown in the figure. 40 Field F
Despite abundant oil reserves, Iran may experience a peak in Field G
20
the near future and also lose some of its reserves due to lack of Tot. Prod.
investment in recently discovered oilfields, insufficient EOR/IOR
0
(enhanced oil recovery/improved oil recovery) projects, overpro-
2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012
duction in mature oilfields, and aging facilities (EIA (Energy
Information Administration), 2011). Fig. 3. Production of seven important Iran’s oilfields.
International sanctions and lack of foreign investment have
been taken into account in this model. As it can be seen in Fig. 5, 120
based on this model, Iran’s oil production trend has three cycles.
100
According to the energy information Administration, a US govern-
ment agency and Study of Iran’s energy sector by the Washington-
80
based institute for the analysis of global security, Iran’s fields have

Production
natural annual decline rate estimated at 8% onshore and 11% offshore, 60 Tot. Prod.
while current Iranian recovery estimates are 20–25%, 10% less than
GOR
the world average. The rate of decline due to combination of war, 40
limited investment, sanctions, and a high rate of natural decline in
20
Iran’s mature oil fields.
Lack of investment to develop new oilfields, has forced Iran to
0
increase production from currently developed mature oilfields to 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012
meet its production quota and gain foreign reserves. As mentioned
Fig. 4. GOR vs. oil production of seven important Iran’s oilfields.
previously, because of insufficient investment in oil and gas sector
and over producing in mature oilfields, production rate of Iran’s
mature and main oilfields is declining. Fig. 3 shows the production an annual rate of 2.56%. Although, at a first look, the decline rate of
trend of seven important oilfields of Iran that are responsible for 2.56% is usual or even low, for mature oilfields in their second half
about 25% of total Iran’s oil production. Individual and total life, but unfortunately, there is another problem. Damaging the
production data of these oilfields have been multiplied by a reservoir by over production is the main problem that currently
constant. Overall production of these seven oilfields is declining at Iran’s mature oilfields are facing (Bahadori, 2013). Fig. 4 shows GOR
(gas oil ratio) vs. oil production that their both real values have been
8
1st Peak: 1977 @ 3.43 Gb/Y
multiplied by a constant. This figure indicates that by the time, GOR
2nd Peak: 1995 @ 1.608 Gb/Y has increased from seven aforementioned fields.
7 3rd Peak: 2028 @ 4.59 Gb/Y
Ascending trend of GOR is an indicator for over production. In
6 the case of over production, the oil layer around the well gets
production(Gb/year)

5 thinner and gas conning will occur, therefore, gas from gas cap will
production
be produced and comes into the surface.
4 1st Peak
According to the forecasted trend, Iran has experienced its first
2nd Peak
3 peak in 1975 at annual production of 2.065 Gb/year. Second and
3rd Peak
third peaks have been estimated to occur in 2011 and 2065 at
2 model production
annual rates of 1.575 Gb/year and 2.205 Gb/year respectively. Due
1 to imposed sanctions and lack of foreign investment in Iran’s oil
0 and gas sector, Iran has experience its second peak in early 2011s
despite abundant oil reserves. After the second peak, Iran’s oil
1912
1922
1932
1942
1952
1962
1972
1982
1992
2002
2012
2022
2032
2042
2052
2062
2072
2082
2092
2102
2112

production will follow a decreasing trend until investment in Iran’s

Fig. 1. Saudi Arabia’s oil production forecast. mature and newly discovered oilfields to get started.

2.5 2.1.2. Iraq

1st peak: 1973 @ 2.242 Gb/Y
2nd peak: 2030@ 2.334 Gb/Y Iraq has the fifth largest proven crude oil reserves in the world,
2
production(Gb/year)

and it passed Iran as the second largest producer of crude oil in

1.5
OPEC at the end of 2012. Despite having large proven oil reserves,
Production
increases in oil production have fallen behind ambitious targets
1st Peak
1 because of infrastructure constraints and political disputes (Fig. 6).
2nd Peak
Model production
0.5
2.1.3. Nigeria
0
Nigeria has the second largest proven crude oil reserves in Africa,
but reserve estimates have been stagnant as exploration activity has
1948
1959
1970
1981
1992
2003
2014
2025
2036
2047
2058
2069
2080
2191
2102
2113
2124
2135
2146
2157
2168
2179

been low. Rising security problems coupled with regulatory uncertainty

Fig. 2. Iran’s oil production forecast. have contributed to decreased exploration activity. Crude oil production

Please cite this article as: Ebrahimi, M., Cheshme Ghasabani, N., Forecasting OPEC crude oil production using a variant Multicyclic
Hubbert Model. J. Petrol. Sci. Eng. (2015), http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.petrol.2015.04.010i
4 M. Ebrahimi, N. Cheshme Ghasabani / Journal of Petroleum Science and Engineering ∎ (∎∎∎∎) ∎∎∎–∎∎∎

3 0.9
1st Peak: 1973 @ 2.065 Gb/Y
0.8 1st Peak: 1974 @ 0.19 Gb/Y
2nd Peak: 2011 @ 1.575 Gb/Y 2nd Peak: 2018 @ 0.817 Gb/Y
2.5 3rd Peak: 2065 @ 2.205 Gb/Y

production(Gb/year)
0.7
production(Gb/year)

2 0.6
0.5 production
production
1.5 0.4 1st Peak
1st Peak
2nd Peak 0.3 2nd Peak
1
Model production 0.2 model production

0.5 0.1
0
0
1913
1923
1933
1943
1953
1963
1973
1983
1993
2003
2013
2023
2033
2043
2053
2063
2073
2083
2093
2103
2113
Fig. 9. Qatar’s oil production forecast.
Fig. 5. Iran’s oil production forecast.
2.5
4 1st Peak: 1971 @ 1.118 Gb/Y
1st Peak: 1988 @ 0.308 Gb/Y 2rd Peak: 2033 @ 2.605 Gb/Y
3.5 2

production(Gb/year)
2nd Peak: 1999 @ 0.497Gb/Y
production(Gb/year)

3 3rd Peak: 2037 @ 2.905 Gb/Y

production 1.5 production
2.5
1st Peak 1st Peak
2
1
2nd Peak 2nd Peak
1.5
3rd Peak model production
1 0.5
model production
0.5
0 0

1913
1922
1931
1940
1949
1958
1967
1976
1985
2094
2003
2012
2021
2030
2039
2048
2057
2066
2075
2184
2193
2102
2111
2120
Fig. 6. Iraq’s oil production forecast. Fig. 10. Kuwait’s oil production forecast.

1.2 1st Peak: 1975 @ 0.625 Gb/Y 3.5 1st Peak: 1977 @ 0.629 Gb/Y
2nd Peak: 2022 @ 1.629 Gb/Y 2nd Peak: 1996 @ 0.670 Gb/Y
3
1 3rd Peak: 2030 @ 2.35 Gb/Y
production(Gb/yrear)

2.5
production(b/year)

0.8 production
production 2 1st Peak
0.6 1st Peak
1.5 2nd Peak
2nd Peak
0.4 3rd Peak
model production 1
model production
0.2 0.5

0 0
1948
1954
1960
1966
1972
1978
1984
1990
1996
2002
2008
2014
2020
2026
2032
2038
2044
2050
2056
2062
2068

1948 1979 2009 2040 2071 2101

Fig. 7. Nigeria’s oil production forecast. Fig. 11. UAE’s oil production forecast.

2.5
2
1st Peak: 1967 @ 0.905 Gb/Y
1.8 1st Peak: 1969 @ 0.805 Gb/Y
2nd Peak: 1997 @ 0.664 Gb/Y
2nd Peak: 1977 @ 0.605 Gb/Y 2 3rd Peak: 2030 @ 1.992 Gb/Y
1.6
production(Gb/year)

3rd Peak: 2024 @ 1.105 Gb/Y

productin(Gb/year)

1.4 production
1.5
1.2 1st Peak
production
1 1st Peak 1 2nd Peak
0.8 2nd Peak 3rd Peak
0.6 model production 0.5 model production
0.4
0.2
0
1917
1927
1937
1947
1957
1967
1977
1987
2097
2007
2017
2027
2037
2047
2057
2067
2077
2187
2197
2107
2117
2127
2137

0
1948
1957
1966
1975
1984
1993
2002
2011
2020
2029
2038
2047
2056
2065
2074
2083
2092
2101
2110
2119
2128
2137
2146
2155

Fig. 12. Venezeula’s oil production forecast.

Fig. 8. Libya’s oil production forecast.

to the closure of loading ports, oil fields, pipelines, and a sharp

in Nigeria reached its peak of 2.44 million bbl/d in 2005, but began to
decline significantly as violence from militant groups surged, forcing
many companies to withdraw staff and shut in production. Oil
production recovered somewhat after 2009–2010 (Fig. 7).
2.1.4. Libya
Libya’s oil production was disrupted for most of 2011 because of
the civil war, but it began to recover relatively rapidly following the
cessation of most hostilities by the autumn of that year. The
country’s oil sector was crippled again in mid-2013 as protests led
deterioration of the security environment at oil installations. Oil
production in Libya from the 1970s into the 2000s had been
affected early on by the partial nationalization of the industry and
later by sanctions imposed by the United States and the UN that
impeded the investment and equipment needed to sustain oil
production at higher levels (Figs. 8 and 9).
2.1.5. Kuwait
Kuwait has much implemented enhanced oil recovery measures
to boost stagnant production rates. New discoveries have been

Please cite this article as: Ebrahimi, M., Cheshme Ghasabani, N., Forecasting OPEC crude oil production using a variant Multicyclic
Hubbert Model. J. Petrol. Sci. Eng. (2015), http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.petrol.2015.04.010i
 M. Ebrahimi, N. Cheshme Ghasabani / Journal of Petroleum Science and Engineering ∎ (∎∎∎∎) ∎∎∎–∎∎∎ 5

0.8 Table 1
1st Peak: 1975 @ 0.383 Gb/Y
0.7 Results of OPEC crude oil production.
2nd Peak: 2007 @ 0.885 Gb/Y
0.6
production(Gb/year)

Country Peak production URR(Gb) RMSE CV (%)

0.5
production
tmax (year) Pmax(Gb/year)
0.4 1st Peak
0.3 2nd Peak Algeria 2007 0.550 27.21 0.0359 6.527
0.2 model production Angola 2011 0.690 19.5 0.0553 8.014
Iran(two cycles) 2030 2.334 210 0.014 0.929
0.1 Iran (three cycles) 2064 2.205 210 0.023 0.756
0 Iraq 2037 2.903 177 0.2017 6.947
1950
1955
1960
1965
1970
1975
1980
1985
1990
1995
2000
2005
2010
2015
2020
2025
2030
2035
2040
2045
2050
Kuwait 2033 2.201 140 0.126 5.72
Libya 2024 0.995 70.26 0.1560 15.678
Qatar 2018 0.817 31 0.0315 3.855
Fig. 13. Algeria’s oil production forecast.
Saudi Arabia 2028 4.59 390 0.3461 8.636
UAE 2030 2.35 126.3 0.0822 3.497
0.8 Nigeria 2022 1.029 62.4 0.0973 9.455
1st Peak: 2011 @ 0.690 Gb/Y
0.7 Venezuela 2030 1.992 138 0.0748 3.75
Ecuador 2011 0.690 10.7 0.1577 22.855
0.6
production(Gb/year)

0.5
Applies a multi-cycle Hubbert variant to OPEC’s oil production, this approach better
depicted the case of oil production.
0.4 production
0.3 model production makes up the dominant portion of both reserves and production.
0.2 Burgan is widely considered the world’s second largest oil field,
surpassed only by Saudi Arabia’s Ghawar field. Greater Burgan was
0.1
discovered in 1938, but it did not become fully developed until after
0 World War II (Fig. 10).
1947
1953
1959
1965
1971
1977
1983
1989
1995
2001
2007
2013
2019
2025
2031
2037
2043
2049
2055
2061
2067

Fig. 14. Angola’s oil production forecast. 2.1.6. UAE

The United Arab Emirates is one of the 10 largest oil and natural
0.25 gas producers in the world, and is a member of the Organization of
1st Peak:2007 @ 0.190 Gb/Y
the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) and the Gas Exporting
0.2 Countries Forum (GECF). The UAE holds approximately 6% of the
production(Gb/year)

world’s proven oil reserves. Recent exploration in the UAE has not
0.15
yielded any significant discoveries of crude oil. An emphasis on
0.1
production EOR techniques designed to extend the lifespan of the Emirates’
model production existing oil fields made up for UAE’s failure in new discoveries. By
0.05 improving the recovery rates in the existing fields, such techniques
helped the UAE to nearly double the proved reserves in Abu Dhabi
0 over the past decade (Figs. 11–16).
1948
1959
1970
1981
1992
2003
2014
2025
2036
2047
2058
2069
2080
2091
2102
2113
2124
2135
2146
2157
2168
2179

In general, our forecasting models accurately match the actual

oil production of all investigated countries. The prediction results
Fig. 15. Ecuador’s oil production forecast.
along with the corresponding error analysis results of RMSE and CV
values for all countries are presented in Table 1. The figure shows
25
1st Peak: 1974 @ 7.99 Gb/Y that the CVs are log-normally distributed around their mean, μ, of
2nd Peak: 2028 @ 18.85 Gb/Y 7.43 (μ¼ 7.43%) by a standard deviation, σ, of 5.84 (σ¼5.84%).
20
According to the model assessment criterion set in this study, the
producton(Gb/year)

15
models of three countries out of the 14 studied countries show
production
excellent fitness with the actual published data (CVo1.59); nine
1st Peak
10 models provide very good predictions (1.59rCVo13.26), and two
2nd Peak
models perform good predictions.
model production
5

0 3. Conclusion and policy suggestions

1948
1955
1962
1969
1976
1983
1990
1997
2004
2011
2018
2025
2032
2039
2046
2053
2060
2067
2074
2081
2088
2095

The OPEC model was developed by combining the individual

Fig. 16. OPEC oil production forecast.
made, but Kuwait’s regulated oil sector hinders further exploration
and production. According to Oil & Gas Journal, as of January 2013,
Kuwait’s territorial boundaries contained an estimated 102 billion
barrels of proven oil reserves, roughly 6% of the world total. Kuwait
ranked sixth in terms of oil reserves among all countries in 2012.
Additional reserves are held in the Partitioned Neutral Zone (PNZ),
which Kuwait shares on a 50–50 basis with Saudi Arabia of Kuwait’s
reserves and production are concentrated in a few mature oil fields
discovered in the 1930s and 1950s. The Greater Burgan oil field,
which comprises the Burgan, Magwa, and Ahmadi reservoirs,
models of the 12 member countries. The results of this study
estimated OPEC ultimate reserves by 1271.24 Gb. OPEC holds
about 72.6%of the world crude oil.
Our study also indicates that OPEC crude oil production will
peak in 2028 at a production rate of 18.85 Gb/year. On the basis of
2005 crude oil production rate and recovery techniques, OPEC
crude oil reserve is being depleted at an annual rate of 1.25%.
(1) OPEC should have an appropriate plan for developing new
oilfields. For example, the optimum production rate, type of
EOR/IOR recovery projects and their execution time should be
defined and carried out on time;

Please cite this article as: Ebrahimi, M., Cheshme Ghasabani, N., Forecasting OPEC crude oil production using a variant Multicyclic
Hubbert Model. J. Petrol. Sci. Eng. (2015), http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.petrol.2015.04.010i
6 M. Ebrahimi, N. Cheshme Ghasabani / Journal of Petroleum Science and Engineering ∎ (∎∎∎∎) ∎∎∎–∎∎∎
(2) Adopting proper policies, OPEC should create an attractive
atmosphere for absorbing foreign investment and utilizing
new technologies in oil and gas industry in order to develop
shared fields;
(3) To delay peak oil OPEC Should decreases the production rate of
mature oilfields, it should make use of new technology and
foreign investment to carry out secondary/tertiary recovery
projects for these oilfields.
Acknowledgments
The authors would like to thank Jean Laherrere for his provid-
ing data and helpful comments, and Shirkou Bahadori and Gae-
tano Maggio for their valuable insights.
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