TRAFFIC ENGINEERING
Ricardo G. Sigua
Recommended entry:
Sigua. Ricardo C.
Fundamentals of traffic engineering/ Ricardo
G. Sigua.—Quezon City: The University of the
Philippines Press e2008.
346 p.: 23 cm.
1. Traffic engineering—Philippines.
2. Traffic safety—Philippines. 3. Traffic regulations—Philippines. 1 Title.
2 TRAFFIC MANAGEMENT
2.1 Introduction
Problems
References
5 TRAFFIC STUDIES
5.1 Introduction
Problems
References
Problems
References
Problems
References
Problems
References
9.6 Conclusion
References
GLOSSARY OF TERMS
THE AUTHOR
This work is dedicated to …
―And I will make all My mountains a road, and My highways will be raised up. Behold, these
shall came forth from afar; and o, these will come from the north and from the west…‖
(Isaiah 49:11-12)
PREFACE
R. G. Sigua
1: INTRODUCTION
1.1 BACKGROUND
Some 80 percent of domestic passenger traffic and 60 percent of freight traffic currently
use the road, and 75 percent of government expenditures on transport infrastructure goes to road
systems 9Abueva 2004). The Philippines has a total road length of about 161,000 km, with an
average road density of 0.53 km/sq. km or 2.35 km per 1,000 people. Philippine roads are mostly
made of concrete pavement. Due to heavy, overloaded trucks, pavements are often damaged, a
factor that contributes to traffic accidents. Due to a long rainy season, floods occur throughout
the Philippines, Floodwaters often cause damage to road pavements due to inadequate drainage.
There are about 11,500 bridges in the national network (measuring about 335,500 lineal meters),
of which 1,700 bridges are temporary (DPWH 2004).
1: INTRODUCTION
Figure 1.1
The Philippines (Metro Manila inset)
1: INTRODUCTION
Metro Manila has a total road length of about 4,800 km. The major arterial roads form
circumferential and radial patterns, although road expansion is seen toward the north and south
directions, following the development of Metro
Manila. Figure 1.2 shows the major road
network of Metro Manila with daily traffic.
Many of the roads have reached their
capacity. Due to traffic congestion, the average
travel speed is estimated to be as low as 14
kph, with roughly one-third of the travel time
wasted as idle time (Sigua 1997). A typical
urban travel in Metro Manila is shown in figure
1.3. According to the 2000 study of the
University of the Philippines National Center
for Transportation Studies, traffic congestion in
Metro Manila has caused more than P101
billion in losses.
The condition of the roads in Metro
Manila is generally good while it is poorer outside the metropolis.
Figure 1.3
Typical urban travel in Metro Manila
1: INTRODUCTION
Traffic control devices such as traffic signs and markings generally follow the
international standard, the Philippines being a signatory to the Vienna Convention in 1968.
However, many of the signs installed conform neither to color nor shape as provided for in the
standard. The number of traffic signs installed is generally insufficient. In highly urbanized
areas, these signs can hardly be recognized, much less read, as they compete with giant
billboards in terms of visibility and craftsmanship.
Traffic signals are commonly installed at major intersections in many cities and towns in
the Philippines although the number is still inadequate. Oftentimes, these signals do not provide
display phase exclusive for pedestrians. In Metro Manila, there is a growing concern about the
safety of pedestrians due to the closure of intersections and with the U-turn slot scheme replacing
the control of traffic signals. Pedestrians have practically no opportunity to cross the road
because of the “uninterrupted” flow of traffic. Without traffic signals controlling the traffic flow
at intersections, driving has become riskier because of frequent swerving/weaving. There is an
urgent need to evaluate the effectiveness of the scheme, which has the sole purpose of improving
speed along the arterials without consideration of safety.
1: INTRODUCTION
Sidewalks are in relatively good condition; however, many obstructions can be found on
them such as illegal vendors, electrical posts, police outpost, etc. With the sidewalk occupied,
pedestrians have to walk on the carriageway. There are still very few overhead pedestrian
bridges even in Metro Manila and at places where these have been constructed, pedestrians still
prefer to risk their lives or limbs by crossing the road at grade level. Moreover, pedestrian
overpasses are often inaccessible to the elderly and the handicapped.
1: INTRODUCTION
Figure 1.5
A pedestrian overpass in Metro Manila
(Photo taken by the author)
Table 1.1
Total registration of motor vehicles for 2002
Type Number %
Cars 749,553 18.00
UV 1,554,619 37.34
SUV 97,695 2.35
Trucks 257,774 6.19
Buses 33,915 0.81
MC/TC 1,470,383 35.31
TOTAL 4,163,939 100.00
Source: LTO 2005
1: INTRODUCTION
About 40 percent of the total numbers of vehicles are registered in Metro Manila.
Motor vehicles are classified as follows:
Private vehicles – refers to motor vehicles owned by private individuals or companies and are
not intended to be used for hire.
For hire vehicles – refers to motor vehicles authorized to be used as public vehicles by virtue
of a franchise granted by the Land Transportation Franchising and Regulatory Board
(LTFRB).
Official/Government Vehicles – refers to motor vehicles owned by the Philippine
government.
Diplomatic Vehicles – refers to motor vehicles owned by a foreign government or by their
diplomatic officials in the Philippines.
1.1.6 Insurance
Motor vehicle owners are required to obtain insurance covering third-party liabilities. The
minimum insurance to be paid to victims of traffic accidents (fatal) was P50, 000 in 2002.
The Insurance Surely Association of the Philippines under the Office of the Insurance
Commissioner accredited 112 insurance companies all over the Philippines by 2002. It regulates
the industry to prevent the proliferation of fly-by-night insurance companies.
The issuing procedure of driving license in provided for under Republic Act (RA) 4136.
The LTO has the full responsibility for issuance of driving licenses.
There are three types of driving licenses: student driver’s permit, nonprofessional driver’s
license, and professional driver’s license.
The total number of professional licenses, nonprofessional licenses, and student permits
issued in 2002 was about 2.9 million. The breakdown is shown in figure 1.6.
Figure 1.6
Breakdown of driver licenses and permits issued in 2002
There seems to be an increasing trend in the number of drivers apprehended (table 1.2).
This could be attributed to the concerted efforts of the different agencies (the Land
Transportation Office, the Metro Manila Development Authority [MMDA], and the Philippine
National Police – Traffic Management Group [PNP-TMG]) in apprehending violators over the
past years.
Table 1.2
Number of apprehended drivers
Year Total
1999 480,122
2000 475,626
2001 570,748
2002 612,477
Source:LT0 2005
As to the type of apprehensions, most of these are fines for violating traffic rules and
regulations (table 1.3)
1: INTRODUCTION
Table 1.3
Breakdown of types of driver apprehension (1999-2002)
Type Number %
Fined 594,126 92.89
Suspended license 345 0.05
Revoked license 4,447 0.70
Impounded vehicle 5,771 0.90
Others 34,933 5.46
Source:LTO 2005
Driving schools and driving instructors must have accreditation from the LTO. In 1980,
the then Ministry of Transportation and Communications (MOTC) issued an order covering the
rules and regulations governing the supervision and control over driving schools. Standard
requirements were set fourth for driving site, school building, classrooms, library facilities,
motor vehicles, instructors, and course of instruction.
In 2002, about 170 LTO-accredited driving schools were in operation all over the
country.
Traffic laws are enforced by the Traffic Management Group (TMG), the traffic division
of each district police, and the LTO. In 1978, Presidential Decree (PD) 1605 was issued to
centralize enforcement matters in Metro Manila to the Metro Manila Commission (MMC), now
the Metro Manila Development Authority.
The TMG, being a national support unit of the PNP, has traffic management offices
scattered in the different regions and provinces nationwide. In selected areas or provinces,
especially in highly urbanized cities/municipalities, the TMG has traffic management teams
(TMTs) that are also capable of performing the functions of the TMG operational support units
that are likewise based in Metro Manila. In coordination and cooperation with the MMDA for
Metro Manila and the local police units in the different regions, the TMG has at its disposal the
traffic enforcement units. Each Regional Traffic Management Office (RTMO) can dispatch
1: INTRODUCTION
personnel to strategic choke points and major thoroughfares to conduct traffic direction and
control to ensure the smooth flow of traffic.
In Metro Manila, the TMG and the MMDA assist each other in traffic management,
especially when on-going infrastructure projects cause heavy congestion. Alongside this
function, the personnel of TMG render the following tasks: traffic accident investigation, and the
traffic safety education through seminars and conferences, etc.
This section discusses some of the legislations pertinent to road safety (Santiago 1980).
Republic Act 4136, otherwise known as the Land Transportation and Traffic Code,
provides for the system of registration of motor vehicles, checks on accessories of vehicles, and
defines road traffic rules and regulations.
Commonwealth Act 146, otherwise known as Pubic Service Act, rests on the regulatory
body (LTFRB) the power to compel any public service provider to furnish safe, adequate, and
proper service as regards the manner of furnishing the same as well as the maintenance of
necessary materials and equipment.
Executive Order (EO) 125 reorganized the then Ministry of Transportation and
Communications into a Department and defined its powers and functions, including the
establishment of the Land Transportation Office as the sectoral agency responsible for
implementing and carrying out policies, rules, and regulations governing the land transportation
system of the country.
Executive Order (EO) 202 created the Land Transportation Franchising and Regulatory
Board with the main function of regulating the land transport industry pursuant to the Public
Service Act.
Republic Act 6975 established the Department of the Interior and Local Government (DILG),
including the creation of the PNP under which the Traffic Management Group has been
reorganized as the traffic enforcement arm of the PNP covering national roads.
1: INTRODUCTION
1.2.2 Definitions
Transportation engineering is a filed or branch of civil engineering that deals with the
application of technology and scientific principles to the planning, functional design, operation,
and management of facilities for any mode of transportation in order to provide for the safe,
rapid, comfortable, convenient, economical, and environmentally compatible movement of
people and goods.
On the other hand, traffic engineering is that phases of transportation engineering that
deals with the planning, geometric design, and traffic operations of roads, streets and highways,
their networks, terminals, abutting lands, and relationships with other modes of transportation
(Evans 1950).
In the United States, it was in 1921 when the title “traffic engineer” was first recognized,
although a number of traffic engineering-related activities were already going on. Table 1.4
shows some of these activities:
Table 1.4
Milestones in the developing profession of traffic engineering
Year Activity
1904 Traffic survey methods were being employed.
1907 Pedestrian islands were used in San Francisco.
1908 The first driver’s license law was adopted.
1911 White-painted pavement center lines were first applied.
1915 Origin-destination studies and accident spot maps were first used.
1916 Speed and delay study was first made by observing traffic from a high
building; pedestrian regulation and “no left turns” were prescribed; curb
parking was prohibited to facilitate traffic movement.
Source: Evans 1950
The use of traffic signals for controlling traffic came much earlier. The first recorded use
of traffic signals was in 1868 in Great Britain. The signals were illuminated by town gas.
However, the use of gas was discontinued after an explosion incident. The development of traffic
signal technology is shown in table 1.5.
1: INTRODUCTION
Table 1.5
Development of traffic signal control
Year Activity
1868 First traffic signal in Great Britain (illuminated by gas)
1910 Manually operated semaphore signals
1922 Idea of timing signals for progressive movement
1926 First automatic traffic signals in Great Britain
1927 Earliest known application of time-space diagram for
coordination
1928 First traffic-actuated signals
Source: Evans 1950.
In 1930, the Institute of Traffic Engineers (ITE) was founded, and traffic engineering as a
profession was finally officially established and defined. The society played a key role in
promoting the profession through advanced training, research studies, standardization, laws, and
application of traffic engineering techniques (Evans 1950).
The traffic engineering practice in the Philippines is still new. Most intersections were
previously controlled by traffic police officers or by manually operated traffic signals. Outside
Metro Manila, manually operated semaphore signals displaying STOP or GO message were
installed on top of police outposts located at the center of the intersection. In 1977, the Traffic
Engineering and Management (TEAM) Project first implemented an area traffic control system
in Metro Manila. It was almost at the same period when the Traffic Control Center, later
renamed as the Traffic Engineering Center (TEC), was established. The center was responsible
for the implementation of various traffic engineering and management measures such as traffic
signalization, geometric improvement of intersections, etc. In 1976, the Transport Training
Center (TTC) was established in the University of the Philippines with assistance from Japan
through the Japan International Cooperation Agency (JICA). TTC started its training program in
1978 in the fields of traffic engineering, transportation planning, and traffic management for
traffic law enforcers. TTC was renamed as the National Center for Transportation Studies and
became a regular unit of UP Diliman in 1993, with research and support to graduate programs in
the fields of transportation engineering and transportation planning as additional functions.
1: INTRODUCTION
REFERENCES
Abueva, Jose V., ed, 2004. The Macapagal-Arroyo presidency and administration: Record
and legacy (2001-2004). Vol. 1. Quezon City: UP Press.
ALMEC Corporation. 1999. Metro Manila Urban Transportation Integration Study
(MMUTIS) final report.
Department of Public Works and Highways (DPWH). 2004. Infrastructure atlas 2004.
Evans, Henry K., ed. 1950. Traffic engineering handbook, Second ed, New Haven,
Connecticut: Institute of Traffic Engineers.
Land Transportation Office, 2005. Statistics, Unpublished.
National Center for Transportation Studies (NCTS). 2000. A study on cost of traffic
congestion in Metro Manila, Quezon City: NCTS.
National Statistical Coordination Board (NSCB). 2007. NSCB website.
http://www.nscb.gov.ph.
Santiago,Mariano R., ed. 1980. A compilation of edicts related to the land transportation
system of the Philippines. Quezon City: Bureau of Land Transportation.
Sigua, Ricardo G. 1997. Development of driving cycle for Metro Manila. Journal of the
eastern Asia Society for Transportation Studies 2, no 4. Seoul: Eastern Asia Society for
Transportation Studies (EASTS).
2: TRAFFIC MANAGEMENT
2.1 INTRODUCTION
Many individuals feel that traffic controls are an encroachment on their individual driving
rights. It must be stressed, however, that driving is not a right but a privilege. It is therefore
necessary to show that restrictions are for the general welfare, and it must be demonstrated that
regulations do not curtail the rights or actions of the majority.
Traffic regulation must cover all aspects of the control of both vehicle (registration,
ownership, mechanical fitness, accessories, size, and weight) and driver (age, ability to operate
specific types of vehicles, financial responsibility).
Traffic regulations must be reasonable and effective. This can only be achieved through
careful study. Facts must be sought through the conduct of traffic studies, accident analysis,
keeping driver records, and other data.
2: TRAFFIC MANAGEMENT
All traffic regulations are dependent upon the laws of the states and local governments,
especially the ordinances of cities. Legislative bodies and traffic authorities must keep in mind
that unreasonable restrictions or regulations are not likely to last very long.
Figure 2.1 suggests a balance among the three elements, i.e., a breakdown or deficiency
in one can lead to the failure of the entire system.
2: TRAFFIC MANAGEMENT
Figure 2.1
Interaction of the three elements of the road system
The road and vehicle may be subject to constant change and improvement. However, in a
given period of time, they may be considered inflexible. The major portion of existing
regulations is therefore aimed at the driver. Worldwide, licensing has become the most effective
way of controlling the number of drivers on the road. It should be used, therefore, to influence
drivers to become familiar with the rules of the road. This is especially true for the Filipino
drivers, considering the most accidents have been attributed to them.
For vehicles, a number of controls exist, the most effective of which is vehicle
registration. Others are checks on equipment and accessories (lights, bells, mirrors, helmets,
etc.), and vehicle’s dimension and weight. Currently, the Motor Vehicle Inspection System
(MVIS) is being revitalized and expanded to cover the whole country.
Traffic control devices are means by which the road user is advised as to detailed
requirements or conditions affecting road use at specific places and times to that proper action
may be taken and accident or delay avoided.
There are three distinct functional groups of traffic control devices:
2: TRAFFIC MANAGEMENT
a. Regulatory devices
These have the authority of law and impose precise requirements upon the actions
of the road user.
b. Warning devices
These are used to inform road users of potentially hazardous roadway conditions
or unusual traffic movements that are not readily apparent to passing traffic.
c. Guiding devices
These are employed simply to inform the road user of route, destination, and other
pertinent traffic.
Every traffic control must meet all these requirements in logical sequence. The
effectiveness of a sign or marking normally depends on its size, color contrast, shape (simple,
regular shapes), relative position, and maintenance to compel attention. To convey a clear
meaning, the shape, color, and message must be well understood. The message should be kept as
short as practicable at a glance. After capturing the clear meaning of the device, it should provide
adequate time for response. Simpler message like STOP or YIELD requires only a second, while
multiple choice (as in destination or guide sign) may require three to four seconds. Finally, all
these requirements – the design features of size and brightness, position allowing time for
response, properly maintained control device – should command the respect of road users. Thus,
shabby, ill-kept signs must be discarded and replaced.
2: TRAFFIC MANAGEMENT
Traffic signs are employed more frequently than any other devices to regulate, warn, or
guide road users. Traffic markings normally consist of lines, patterns, words, symbols, reflectors,
etc. They may be considered as specialized types of traffic signs in which the message is in
contrast with the color and brightness of the pavement or other background.
Philippine traffic signs conform to the 1968 Vienna Conventions of the United Nations on
Road Traffic and Road Signs, which the country officially adopted on June 6, 1973.
Traffic signs are necessary to give information as to routes, directions, destinations, etc.
Their function becomes more relevant when used to warn road users of hazards and regulate any
prohibitive action at specific places and/or at specified times.
To ensure uniformity, traffic signs shall be installed only by a duly authorized public body or
official for the purpose of guiding, regulating, and warning traffic. In case of temporary
construction work, however, special permission is given to contractors or utility companies to
install signs to protect the public provided that such signs conform to the set standards.
Traffic signs are normally of fixed/permanent type although some variable signs have been
employed and have become useful in locations where traffic and environment conditions often
change.
Traffic signs are classified depending on their intended uses:
a. Informative: the signs are intended to guide users while they are traveling.
b. Regulatory: the signs are intended to inform users of special obligations, restrictions, or
prohibitions with which they must comply.
c. Warning: these signs are intended to warn users of a danger on the road and to inform
them of its nature,
Shape
Shapes of signs are standardized as follows:
2: TRAFFIC MANAGEMENT
a) Equilateral triangular shape with one side horizontal shall be used for danger warning
signs.
b) Round shape shall be used for regulating traffic.
c) Rectangular shape shall be used for informative signs.
d) Octagonal shape shall be used for STOP signs only.
e) Inverted equilateral triangle shall be used for YIELD signs only.
Color
Danger warning signs shall have a yellow or white background with black symbols and
red border.
Prohibitory signs and restrictive signs shall have a white background with black symbols
and red border.
Mandatory signs with the exception of STOP and YIELD signs shall have a blue
background and white symbols.
STOP signs shall have a red background and white symbols.
YIELD signs shall have a yellow background and red border.
Informative signs shall have a white or light-colored symbol on a dark-colored (blue or
black) background or a blue or dark-colored symbol on a white or light-colored
background.
Size
The minimum dimensions of signs depend upon the intended applications. Larger sizes are
necessary at wider roadways and on high speed highways. According to section 2.5 of DPWH
Highway Safety Design Standards Part 2: Road Signs and Pavement Markings Manual, regulatory
signs are of four sizes based on the speed of the facility as follows:
a. A for urban low-speed roads
b. B for rural roads with speed limits between 60 kph and 70 kph
c. C for high-speed rural highways
d. D for expressways
In the case of a STOP or YIELD sign, for example, table 2.1 below should be followed:
2: TRAFFIC MANAGEMENT
The reader is advised to refer to the DPWH manual for the dimensions of various
traffic signs and for other details – letter, symbol, border, bar sizes, etc.
b. Height
In rural areas, the height of the sign should normally be between 1 m and 1.5 m
above the nearest edge of the travelled way. For intersection direction signs, the height
should be increased to 2 m. Final height is dictated by visibility factor as the sign should be
mounted clear of vegetation and it must be clearly visible under headlight illumination at
night (see figure 2.2).
On curbed roads such as in urban areas, the signs should be mounted at a minimum
of 2 m above the top of the curb to prevent obstructions to pedestrians.
Figure 2.2
Height and lateral placement of signs
a. b. Some countries use this sign; some only for temporary messages.
Table 2.3
Examples of warning signs
2: TRAFFIC MANAGEMENT
A system of clear and effective pavement markings is essential for the guidance and control
of vehicles and pedestrians. They take the form of lines, symbols, messages, or numerals, and may
be set into the surface of, applied upon, or attached to the pavement. In some cases, pavement
markings are used as a supplement to other traffic control devices such as traffic signals and road
signs. In other instances, they may simply guide traffic regulations. Pavement markings have some
definite limitations:
a. They are subject to traffic wear and require proper maintenance.
b. They may not be clearly visible if the road is wet or dusty (e.g., near shoulder edge or
median).
c. They may be obscured by traffic.
d. Their effect on skid resistance requires careful choice of materials.
e. They cannot be applied on unsealed roads.
Despite these limitations, they have the advantage under favorable conditions of conveying
warning message or information to drivers without diverting their attention from the road.
Markings shall only be applied and/or removed by the Department of Public Works and
Highways (DPWH) or an authority to which these powers are delegated.
All line-markings plans must be approved by the DPWH before installation.
2.6.3 Standardization
As in the case with all other traffic control devices, it is imperative that markings be uniform
so that they may be recognized and understood instantly by all drivers. Manuals are available from
the DPWH, and on request, it will furnish traffic authorities, road markers, material
2: TRAFFIC MANAGEMENT
suppliers/manufacturers, and similarly interested agencies, detailed drawings of the standard designs
and locations.
2.6.5 Materials
Road markings should be of non-skid materials and should not protrude more than 6 mm
above the level of the carriageway. Raised pavement markings should not protrude more than 15
2: TRAFFIC MANAGEMENT
mm above the level of the carriageway. The following are the commonly used materials for road
markings:
Paint
Paint with or without glass beads embedded or premixed can be applied either by
hand or with line marking machines, For proper reflectorization at night, the amount of glass
beads used should be less than 0.45 kg and no more than 0.50 kg per liter of mixed paint.
Thermoplastic materials
Use of thermoplastic materials with or without reflective properties is recommended
at locations subject to extreme traffic property is recommended at locations subject to
extreme traffic wear. The average service life of thermoplastic materials has been
experienced to be equivalent to eight times that of beaded traffic paints.
Pre-cut sheeting
Pre-cut materials both with or without reflective properties are used. It is usually in
adhesive tape form, with aggregate, pigment, and plastic rubber combined on one side and
adhesive on the other side.
Raised pavement markers
These are studs of plastic, ceramic, aluminum, cast iron, etc. that are embodied into
the carriageway or attached to the road surface with adhesive. They may be reflective or
nonreflective.
2.6.6 Color
The color of pavement markings shall be white, except for the alternative uses of yellow in
the following cases:
a. Double yellow “no-passing” lines
b. Unbroken portion of “no-parking” lines
c. Curb markings for prohibition of parking
d. On island in line of traffic
e. Bus and PUJ lanes
Black may be used in combination with white or yellow in hazard markers to warn drivers at
locations where the protruding objects – such as bridge piers, traffic islands, or other protruding
2: TRAFFIC MANAGEMENT
objects – on or near the roadway. However, the use of black does not establish it as a standard color
for pavement marking.
Depending on the direction that lines are marked on the pavement, lines may be
longitudinal, transverse, or oblique. And depending on the use and meaning of such lines, they are
either broken or solid lines.
A broken line shall consist of line segments of equal lengths separated by uniform gaps.
The speed of vehicles on the section of road or in the area in question should be taken into account
in determining the lengths of the strokes and of the gaps between them.
A solid unbroken line is used where crossing of the line is either discouraged or prohibited.
It is generally used to replace or supplement a broken line where required, e.g., barrier lines, center
lines, etc. Solid lines may be either yellow or white, depending whether crossing the line is legally
prohibited or not.
The width of solid or broken lines varies from 100 mm to 300 mm, depending on the usage
of the specified line. Transverse lines are usually wider because of the angle at which the driver
sees markings on the carriageway.
2.6.9 Messages
Messages when used should be limited to as few words as possible, never more than three.
they shall only be used so supplement other traffic control devices. The distance between words is
variable, depending on the message and location at which it is based. (Usually twice the length of
the word if achievable.)
The first word of the message is to be nearest the motorist on rural roads. Un urban low-
speed areas, the order is optional.
2: TRAFFIC MANAGEMENT
Messages are white in color. Letters or numerals used on roads in urban areas shall
measure at least 2.5 m; oh high-speed highways, they may need to be at least 5 m.
Messages generally in use are STOP, KEEP CLEAR, SCHOOL PED XING, RAILROD
XING, SIGNAL AHEAD, NO RIGHT (LEFT) TURN, BUS LANE, and PUJ LANE.
2.6.7 Symbols
b. Pavement arrows
Pavement arrows are used for lane use control. White in color, they are generally
5m in length on urban roads and 7.5m on high-speed roads.
For half-turn movements, the stems of the straight arrows can be bent to suit the
particular direction of movements.
The first set of arrows should be placed at a distance of 15m from the stop bar, and
the supplement sets should be placed at 45m apart.
c. Numerals
The only numerals that should be used are those associated with speed limits at
location to supplement limit signs, which are continuously disregarded by drivers.
Physical obstructions in or near a roadway that constitute serious traffic hazard, including
installations designed for the control of traffic, shall be adequately marked. Typical obstructions of
2: TRAFFIC MANAGEMENT
this character are bridge supports, monuments, traffic islands, beacons, signal and sign support,
loading islands, railroads and draw-bridge gates, posts of narrow bridges, underpass piers and
abutments, culvert headwalls, poles, trees, rocks, and structures giving restricted and overhead
clearance.
For additional emphasis it is also advisable to mark obstructions rather than islands with
reflectorized white paint with not less than five alternating black and reflectorized white stripes.
The stripes shall slope downward at an angle of 45 degrees toward the side of obstruction, and
shall be uniform and not less than 100 mm in width. A large surface, such as a bridge pier, may
require stripes of 300 mm (see figure 2.3).
Figure 2.3
Object markings (Courtesy of R. Rellosa of 3M Phil.)
Raised pavement markers are small rectangular or dome-shaped devices that are fixed to
the pavement surface to simulate or supplement painted pavement markings (figure 2.4). The
markers can be reflective or nonreflective.
2: TRAFFIC MANAGEMENT
Figure 2.4
Raised pavement markers (The one on the right has a built-in lightning.) (Left photo courtesy of R.
Rellosa of 3M Phil; right photo courtest of Solarmakers Inc.)
Raised pavement markers are generally not obscured at night and under wet conditions.
The reflective types are more brilliant than reflectorized paint markings.
Because of high cost of installation and maintenance, use of raised pavement markings
may be considered only in accident-prone areas, e.g., on hilly areas where there is frequent fog and
rain. Figure 2.5 shows the visual effect of raised pavement markers.
Figure 2.5
Visual effect of raised pavement markers in between reflectorized pavement markings (Photo
courtesy of R. Rellosa of 3M Phil.)
2: TRAFFIC MANAGEMENT
Hazard markers
Hazard markers are rectangular and generally consist of a series of alternating black and
white bands (figure 2.6). The white portion is always reflectorized, but the reflectorized material
may cover only the central portion of each white band in order to achieve a balance between the
areas of black and white under headlight illumination. The bands may consist of either diagonal
strips where only a target is required or of chevrons where directional as well as target properties
are desirable.
Delineators
Delineators are small reflective panels or buttons mounted on guide posts or guard fences
as an effective aid for night driving (figure 2.7). Delineators are made of reflective material
capable of reflecting light clearly visible under normal atmospheric condition from a distance of
300-500 m when illuminated by the upper beam of a standard automobile head lamp.
Placement of delineators at the roadside of a circular curve is shown in figure 2.8.
Figure 2.6
Chevron markers (Photo courtesy of R. Rellosa of 3M Phil.)
2: TRAFFIC MANAGEMENT
Figure 2.7
Delineators made of reflective materials
Figure 2.8
Placement of permanent delineators along a roadway curve.
2: TRAFFIC MANAGEMENT
PROBLEMS
1. Drive along Epifanio de los Santos Avenue (EDSA) or along any major roads in your
locality. Note if traffic signs are visible or if they are obscured because of too many
advertisement or billboard signs. Must there be regulations on putting up advertisement
signs?
2. Nowadays, many local government units have been able to get support from private
companies in fabricating and installing traffic signs at locations under their jurisdiction,
provided that the company’s logo or identification is indicated in a certain area of the sign
(one-eighth to one-fifth of the total surface area). Would you agree to this? Why or why
not?
3. In the town or city where you are residing, identify the different traffic signs and see if they
conform to the Vienna Convention as to color and shape. Would you agree if these signs
do not conform to the international standards because they were fabricated at lower cost in
your locality?
4. Most international signs consist mainly of symbols with minimum or almost no words in
them. Would you suggest putting words in Tagalog or in any dialects in order to convey
their meaning? Why or why not?
REFERENCES
Department of Public Works and Highways (DPWH). 2004. Highway safety design standards.
Road Safety Design Manual. Manila: DPWH
Federal Highway Administration (FHWA). US Dept. of Transportation. 1998. Manual on
uniform traffic control devices for streets and highways (MUTCD).
Planning and Project Development Office, Ministry of Public Highways. 1980. Manual on
pavement markings.
Santiago, Mariano R. ed. 1980. A compilation of educts related to the land transportation
system of the Philippines. Quezon City: Bureau of Land Transportation.
3: TRAFFIC FLOW FUNDAMENTALS
3.1 INTRODUCTION
Describing traffic is considered very difficult due to several factors that cause its
irregularity or unpredictability. These factors could be attributed to several events which could
happen on the road: accidents, stalled vehicles, lane changing or swerving, parking maneuvers,
indiscriminate loading and unloading of public utility vehicles, etc. Without these events, traffic
flow could be expected to be fairly regular and predictable within a day or even within a week.
However, the more frequently these events occur along the road, the harder it is to predict the
traffic condition.
It is during the occurrence of a traffic event when more advanced knowledge of traffic
flow theory, like queuing analysis or shock wave, becomes necessary. These topics will be
introduced at the end of the chapter.
First, let us consider how we can best describe traffic condition when congestion builds
up simply due to continuous increase of traffic density along a road. To illustrate, imagine the
development of traffic along the expressway. In the early morning, drivers can freely choose
their own speeds because there are only very few vehicles on the road. As traffic density
increases, the drivers are constrained to adjust their speeds. Traffic condition becomes very
unstable when the capacity of the highway has already been reached, after which, a stop-and-go
condition will be experienced if the situation worsens, traffic is brought to a standstill - a
complete breakdown of the expressway because of lack of capacity. This condition may last for
several minutes or even hours. However, we can expect a reverse process to occur when traffic
flow returns to stable condition.
driveways where vehicles are required to stop by any cause outside the traffic stream - such as
traffic signs (STOP or YIELD), traffic signal lights, etc. - is called interrupted flow. For each
type of flow, we will discuss the most commonly used traffic variables that best describe them.
Uninterrupted flow can be described using any of the following traffic variables:
A. Flow rate or volume
B. Speed
C. Density or concentration
(3.1)
Again, if the observation period T is set to one hour, q is called volume and will have a
unit of vehicles per hour. In general, flow rate (or volume, as used loosely) will have units like
vehicles per minute or vehicles per day.
Figure 3.1
Time-distance diagram
3: TRAFFIC FLOW FUNDAMENTALS
Example 3.1
Let us suppose a 15-minute count of vehicles bound for Manila was conducted at a particular
location on Quezon Avenue. A summary is shown in the table below:
TYPE 15 - MINUTE COUNT
Car/van 420
Jeepney 300
Bus 16
Truck 28
Estimate the flow rate in vehicles per hour.
Solution:
The total number of vehicles counted in 15 minutes is 420 + 300 + 16 + 28 = 764. This is
expanded to one hour by multiplying by 4. Therefore, the flow rate is
q = 764 x 4 = 3,056 vehicles per hour
(Note that the count within the 15-minute interval is assumed to be the same for the other three
15-minute intervals.)
Speed
Speed is defined as rate of motion in distance per unit time. When describing traffic
stream, two types of speed are used: time men speed and space mean speed.
Figure 3.2
Measuring spot speed using trap-length method
then
Knowing the individual speeds of n vehicles observed within time T, the time
men speed or spot speed of the traffic stream is given by
∑
(3.2)
Example 3.2
The speed of 25 cars was observed. 10 cars were noted to travel at 35 kph, 8 cars
at 40 kph, 2 cars at 50 kph, and 5 cars at 45 kph. Assuming that each car was traveling at
constant speed, determine the time mean speed
Solution:
Applying equation 3.2
3: TRAFFIC FLOW FUNDAMENTALS
It is common practice among traffic engineers to report "spot speed" for given
location. Spot speed is often used as basis for establishing speed limits.
b. Space mean speed
Space mean speed is used to describe the rate of movement of a traffic stream
within a given section of road. It is the speed based on the average travel time of vehicles
in the stream within the section. It is also called the harmonic mean speed. Consider the
time-distance diagram shown in figure 3.3. Only the speeds of vehicles intersected by the
line drawn at instant time t are measured. (The speed of a vehicle can actually be
estimated by dividing the length of the road section L by its travel time.)
Figure 3.3
Time-distance diagram for space men speed
(3.3)
∑
Example 3.3
Using the same example determine the space mea speed.
Solution:
Applying equation 3.3:
3: TRAFFIC FLOW FUNDAMENTALS
Density
Density is defined as the number of vehicles in a given length of road at an instant point
in time. Using the same figure 3.3, the number of vehicles counted at time t divided by the length
of the section L gives a measure of density in that section. Again, if n vehicles are found within
the section L, density k is computed as:
(3.4)
Among these three variables, density proves to be the most difficult or expensive to observe.
Aerial photography is the most commonly used method to get its exact values. On the other hand,
there are various ways of conducting volume and speed studies. (These are discussed in chapter
4.). It will be seen later that these variables are actually related to each other and that density can
be derived if volume and speed are known.
Time headway
Time headway is defined as the time interval between passage of consecutive vehicles at
a specified point on the road with a unit of time per vehicles.
Referring again to figure 3.1 where N vehicles were counted to pass line 1-1 within the
observation time T, let hi be the time headway of 2 consecutive vehicles. The average headway
representing all observed vehicles is estimated using arithmetic mean. (Note that if there are N
vehicles observed, then there will be N – 1 headways that will be measure.)
3: TRAFFIC FLOW FUNDAMENTALS
Therefore, the average time headway and flow rate are related as follows:
Example 3.4
During morning peak hour, the average headway of UP-Katipunan jeepneys is estimated
at 5 minutes. If the passenger demand during the same period is 240, determine whether there is
a need to increase the number of jeepney units (or shorten the headway) for this route. Assume
that passenger demand is evenly distributed within that period and the average load/occupancy is
14 passengers per jeepney. (Note: This assumption may not necessarily be true do to fluctuation
of passenger demand and variability of passenger occupancy.)
Solution:
From equation 3.5, the number of jeepneys per hour is
With an average load of 14 passengers per jeepney, the total number of passengers that
can take a ride is
12 x 14 = 168 passengers
Since the demand during morning peak hour is 240 passengers, it can be said that there is
a need to increase the number of jeepney units during peak period.
Spacing
Spacing is the distance between two vehicles measure from the front bumper of a vehicle
to that of another. Similar to the estimation of time headway, if there are n vehicles within a
3: TRAFFIC FLOW FUNDAMENTALS
given road section L, the sum of (n -1) spacing si will be almost equal to L. Average spacing,
therefore, may be computed as the inverse of density.
(3.6)
Example 3.5
During heavy traffic congestion, it was observed that the average spacing of vehicles in
queue in the innermost lane of EDSA is 6.5 m. Determine the jam density of stopped vehicles.
Solution:
From equation 3.6, the jam density is
Time occupancy
Another useful measure of traffic flow is time occupancy. It can only be measure,
however, if a detector is installed at a specific point on the carriageway. It is defined as the total
time of a detector is occupied divided by the total time of observation. Figure 3.4 shows how a
vehicle is detected using ultrasonic detector.
Figure 3.4
Vehicle detection using ultrasonic detector
3: TRAFFIC FLOW FUNDAMENTALS
Assuming that n vehicles were observed during the total time of observation T, the time
occupancy Ot is given by
(3.7)
where ti is the detection time of the ith vehicle.
A relationship exists among the three most important traffic variables: flow rate, space
mean speed, and density. A dimensional analysis of the units will show that flow rate (veh/hr) is
simply the product of density (veh/km) and space mean speed (km/hr), or
q = k x us (3.8)
As mentioned earlier, density is the most difficult variable to measure. It can be obtained
indirectly using this relation.
a. speed-density relation
3: TRAFFIC FLOW FUNDAMENTALS
b. volume-density relation
c. speed-volume relation
Source of Data: Tagapolot, 1997
Figure 3.5
Volume-speed-density relations for the inner lane of South Luzon Expressway
The equation of the line that gives the relation between speed and density can be easily
determined by ratio and proportion
(3.9)
Example 3.6
Data on density and speed were obtained from a four-line, two-way rural highway (in one
direction only):
Density, veh/km Speed, kph
75 45
15 85
142 10
100 30
Solution:
A common way of analyzing relation of two variables is through linear regression. The
so-called best fit line represents the data points with the least error. A scatter diagram of the data
points would show that a linear equation may be well suited for the analysis.
3: TRAFFIC FLOW FUNDAMENTALS
The constants a and b are determined using the following formulas. (The reader is
advised to refer to any statistics books for the derivation of these formulas. See And and Tang
1975.)
where
3: TRAFFIC FLOW FUNDAMENTALS
This is almost close to -1.0, which means that the correlation between the two variables is
very high.
Therefore the regression line is
u = a + bk = 91.96 – 0.5959 k
The negative sign confirms that as density increases, speed decreases.
3: TRAFFIC FLOW FUNDAMENTALS
Example 3.7
Using the results of the previous example, determine the free flow speed and jam density.
Solution:
The density-speed relation obtained from the previous example is
u = 91.96 – 0.5959 k
Free flow speed occurs when density k = 0.
uf = 91.96 – 0.5959 (0) = 91.96 kph
Jam density occurs when speed u = 0.
0 = 91.96 – 0.5959 Kj
or
Kj = 91.96 / 0.5959 = 154.32 veh/km
Volume-density relation
Substituting equation 3.9 to the general relation (equation 3.8):
(3.10)
This equation expresses the relation of q and k as parabolic. this can be drawn as shown:
Due to the symmetry of the figure, it can be said that the maximum flow qmax occurs
when the density has a value km equal to half of jam density kj. However, when the relation
3: TRAFFIC FLOW FUNDAMENTALS
cannot be easily identified, it is useful to differentiate the function and equate to zero to get the
value of km corresponding to maximum flow, as follows:
Volume-speed relation
From equation 3.9, it can also be shown that
(3.11)
Substituting this in equation 3.8 gives a parabolic relation between q and us:
(3.12)
Again, it can be shown that maximum flow qmax occurs at seed um equal to half of the
free flow speed uf.
Therefore, the value of the maximum flow, also called capacity, is
3: TRAFFIC FLOW FUNDAMENTALS
Going back to the speed-density relation qmax, is shown to be the shaded area of the
rectangle.
Example 3.8
In the previous example, determine the capacity of the rural highway in one direction.
Solution:
As already shown, the density-speed relation can be modeled by a straight line, The
formula for qmax can be used to compute for the capacity.
Capacity is defined as the maximum hourly rate at which persons or vehicles can
reasonably be expected to transverse a point or uniform section of a lane or roadway during a
given time period under prevailing roadway, traffic, and control conditions.
On the other hand, level of service (LOS) is a qualitative description of how a certain
facility is performing.
Traffic engineers rely on capacity and level of service analyses to determine the width
and number of lanes when planning for new facilities or when expanding existing facilities that
are already experiencing congestion problems.
3: TRAFFIC FLOW FUNDAMENTALS
The Philippine Highway Planning Manual (PHPM) developed by Planning Service of the
DPWH provides a methodology to carry out the process of such analysis.
The LOS concept uses qualitative measures that characterize operational conditions
within a traffic stream and perception of these conditions by motorists and passengers.
Six levels of service are defined for each type of facility and are given letter designations
from A to F, with A representing the best operating conditions and F the worst. Each level of
service represents a range of operating conditions and is defined by quantitative factors known as
measures of effectiveness. In the PHPM method, LOS are defined based on the computed
volume and capacity ratio and the space mean speed of the traffic flow. The volume referred to is
the hourly demand volume. This method was similar to the Highway Capacity Manual (HCM)
method of 1965. The latest HCM now considers density as the main variable in determining LOS.
Nevertheless, both methods gives the same description of each level of service as shown in table
3.1.
3: TRAFFIC FLOW FUNDAMENTALS
Table 3.1
Levels of service
3: TRAFFIC FLOW FUNDAMENTALS
Under the PHPM method, these levels of service correspond to the areas shown in figure
3.6
Figure 3.6
Levels of service
Figure 3.6 is actually the same diagram as the volume-speed relation but with the
horizontal axis normalized by dividing volume by the capacity Table 3.2 shows the value of
volume-capacity ratio for each LOS.
Table 3.2
Volume-capacity ratio and LOS
3: TRAFFIC FLOW FUNDAMENTALS
In the current US Highway Capacity Manual, the different measures of effectiveness that
most appropriately describe the LOS for different types of facility are shown in table 3.3.
Table 3.3
Measure of effectiveness for different highway types
Example 3.9
From the example of section 3.3, if traffic volume in the same direction where capacity
was estimated was 2,050 vehicles per hour at a particular period, determine the level of service
of the highway (in that direction).
Solution:
The capacity computed in the previous example was qmax = 3,547.82 vehicles per hour.
The volume-capacity ratio is
Comparing this volume-capacity ratio with the values provided in table 3.2, the LOS is C.
Using fluid flow analogy, models are used to describe traffic flow will be developed in
this section. Consider two points on a one-way road assumed to be homogeneous:
3: TRAFFIC FLOW FUNDAMENTALS
Let
Ni – number of cars passing station i during time interval Δt.
qi – flow (volume) passing station i during Δt.
Δx – distance between stations
Δt – duration of simultaneous counting at stations 1 and 2.
By definition,
(3.13)
Suppose N1 > N2 (means traffic is building up).
(3.14)
Let Δk: increase in density between stations1 and 2 during period Δt.
Then
(3.16)
3: TRAFFIC FLOW FUNDAMENTALS
If the medium is considered continuous and finite elements are allowed to become
infinitesimal:
(3.17)
This is well known as the continuity equation.
With q = uk
(3.18)
Applying chain rule:
(3.19)
Substituting equation 3.19 in equation 3.18:
(3.20)
Analogous to fluid flow, the equation of motion expressing the acceleration of traffic
stream at a given place and time is given by
(3.21)
3: TRAFFIC FLOW FUNDAMENTALS
(3.22)
With speed u = f (x, t).
but
(3.23)
3: TRAFFIC FLOW FUNDAMENTALS
This has exactly the same form as equation 3.20. Equating equations 3.20 and 3.23:
Considering that u and k always have an inverse relationship, the negative sign is added
on the right side of the equation.
(3.24)
We can now consider some specific models, the first of which is the Greenshield’s model
(n = 1).
3: TRAFFIC FLOW FUNDAMENTALS
(3.25)
Two more models can be easily identified:
Greenshield’s model: n = -1
Parabolic model: n=0
Table 3.4 summarizes the different macroscopic model depending on the value of n:
Table 3.4
Macroscopic models
Queuing at a gasoline station or at the toll gate, falling in line to transact business at the
bank or just to get a movie pass, queuing at a busy parking lot, jet planes waiting before being
3: TRAFFIC FLOW FUNDAMENTALS
given the signal to land or takeoff – these are everyday occurrences that would surely tests one’s
patience.
Queuing analysis provides ways of assessing the impacts of these activities by knowing
the magnitude of vehicular delay and the extent of queue propagated. The models that will be
discussed in this section are derived based on some assumptions related to arrival and departure
patterns, and the prevailing queue discipline. Consider the system shown in figure 3.7.
Figure 3.7
Queuing system
The input is normally characterized by some form of arrival pattern usually given by its
arrival distribution. The output generally depends on the queue discipline and the service
mechanism at the service station. The most common type of queue discipline s the so-called
FIFO or first-in first-out, i.e., the first one that arrives at the service station gets served first and
therefore the first to leave the system as well. (Another type of queue discipline, which has
limited application to traffic flow, is the so-called LIFO or last-on first-out. Typical examples of
this discipline are the following: the last rider of an elevator normally gets out first; the last
document piled on top gets signed first – not a recommended practice!) Service mechanism
refers to the manner customers are served at the station. For example, a toll booth that charges a
single fee, accepts only a fixed amount, and does not give back any change will have a fairly
uniform service rate compared to a booth that charges variable toll fees and gives back change up
to the last centavo.
Kendall’s notation is popularly used to describe a queuing system. It takes the form
A / B / C (n)
3: TRAFFIC FLOW FUNDAMENTALS
where
A – represents the input or arrival pattern’
B – represents the service mechanism
C – represents the number of services
n – represents the limit of the queue or users
Arrivals and departure may either follow a random or deterministic pattern. Markov (M)
is used for random processes while Deterministic (D) is used for processes that are characterized
by regular or constant arrivals or departures. Typical examples of these processes are:
M / M / 1 (∞) – random arrival and departure (service rate); one or single server; infinite
queue (no limit)
M / M / N (∞) – random arrival and departure; N or multiple servers; infinite queue
D / D / 1 (∞) – regular arrival; regular service rate or departure; single server; limit of
queue is 100.
A combination of Markov and deterministic processes, say M / D / 1 may also be used.
3.6.1 D / D / 1 Queuing
Due to the regularity of both arrivals and departures, it is more convenient to analyze a
D/D/1 queuing system graphically. Arrivals and departures are easily represented by straight
lines with the slopes corresponding to their rates.
Example 3.10
Consider a temporary single lane o-ramp/entrance to the expressway. While the entrance
is open 24 hours, a fixed toll fee of P10 is charged from 7AM to 9AM as a form of congestion
pricing. On the average, a vehicle is served for 7.5 seconds during which the teller receives the
fee and gives back the charge, The flow rate is 600 vehicles/hour during the first 25 minutes after
which, it is reduced to 360 vehicles/hour and remains constant for the next hours as shown in
figure 3.8.
3: TRAFFIC FLOW FUNDAMENTALS
Figure 3.8
Graphical representation of D/D/1 queuing for example 3.10
Consider time t reckoned from 7AM. The total number of vehicles that have arrived and
departed are estimated:
Queue is expected to dissipate at the intersection of the two lines. At this point, the total
number of arrivals will be equal to the total number of departures.
250 + 6 x (t-25) = 8 t
or t = 50 min
Therefore queue dissipated at about 7:50 AM. After which, no queue is expected to
propagate since the departure rate (8 veh/min) is already higher than the arrival rate (veh/min).
The total number of vehicles delayed is 8 x t = 8 x 50 = 400 veh
The longest queue occurs at t = 25 min with a value of
(10-8) x t = 2 x 25 = 50 veh
The total vehicular delay is estimated from the area of the triangle, i.e., area between
arrival and departure curves.
3: TRAFFIC FLOW FUNDAMENTALS
Note that if ρ < 1 then λ < µ, which means that the system is stable. Otherwise, queue
becomes longer and longer (unstable condition).
Basic formulas for M/D/1:
(3.26)
(3.27)
(3.28)
Example 3.11
At the exit of a toll gate with a single booth, vehicles arrive at random at a rate of 20
vehicles per minute. The service has an average rate of 22 vehicles per minute.
Estimate the following:
a. average length of queue formed at the toll gate
3: TRAFFIC FLOW FUNDAMENTALS
Solution:
Arrival rate is λ = 20 vehicles/minute.
Service rate is µ = 22 vehicles/minute.
Utilization factor is ρ = 0.909.
(Note that although ρ <1, the condition may start to become unstable.)
(3.29)
(3.30)
(3.31)
Example 3.12
Consider the same problem in example 3.11. However, due to variable toll fees, the
service is also random with an average rate of 22 vehicles per minute.
Solution:
3: TRAFFIC FLOW FUNDAMENTALS
It may be observed that with a stochastic service rate, estimates for M/M/1 are almost
twice that of the M/D/1.
Figure 3.9
Toll plaza with N gates
Otherwise, the driver may have to wait in queue if all gates are full. Again the arrivals are
assumed with a rate of λ and the service rate per server is µ. ρ is still defined as . However, is
condition.
Basic formulas for M/M/N:
a. Average length of queue
(3.32)
where
(3.33)
3: TRAFFIC FLOW FUNDAMENTALS
(3.34)
(3.35)
Exercise 3.13
If the operator of the toll road in the previous example wants to improve the current
condition at the toll plaza, determine the new queue characteristics if the number of toll booths is
increased to 2.
Solution:
The number of servers N = 2. From the previous example, ρ = 0.909 and the utilization
factor is ρ/N = 0.909/2 =0.454.
The probability of having no vehicles in the system is computed first using equation 3.33
3: TRAFFIC FLOW FUNDAMENTALS
Increasing the number of toll booths to 2 will greatly improve the operation of the toll
plaza.
Stalled vehicles, traffic accidents, parades, or any other temporal activities will cause
abnormal traffic flow and will definitely reduce the capacity of the roadway. Such occurrences
lead to long queues extending several kilometers that can only be dissipated long after the
obstruction has been removed. Analysis of this type of problem is done using shock wave theory.
Shock wave is simply the motion or propagation of a change in density and flow. Consider two
flow regions A and B as shown in figure 3.10. Region A has prevailing flow described by speed
u1 and density k1 while flow in region B has a speed u2 and k2.
3: TRAFFIC FLOW FUNDAMENTALS
Figure 3.10
Two flows with different properties
The following notations will be used for the derivation of formulas for shock wave:
S – shock wave; vertical line separating regions A and B.
uw – speed of shock wave S; positive if line S moves toward the positive x direction.
u1 and u2 – space mean speeds in regions A and B, respectively.
ur1 – speed of vehicles in region A relative to the moving line S;
ur1 = (u1 – uw)
ur2 – speed of vehicles in region B relative to the moving line S;
ur2 = (u2 – uw)
Let N be the number of vehicles crossing the line S at time t:
N = (Ur1k1) x t = (Ur2k2) x t
Substituting the values of Ur1 and Ur2:
(u1 – uw) k1 = (u2 – uw) k2
or
u2 k2 - u1k1 = uw (k2 – k2)
with q1 = k1u1 and q2 = k2u2:
(3.36)
This is the general equation for the speed of the shock wave u w. On a q-k curve, equation
3.36 is represented by the slope of the line connecting points 1 and 2 as shown in figure 3.11.
3: TRAFFIC FLOW FUNDAMENTALS
Figure 3.11
Representation of shock wave in q-k diagram
Example 3.14
During the last election campaign, a 500 m convoy of presidential and senatorial
candidates belonging to F4 Party was moving at a pace of 5 kph along Pan-Philippine Highway.
At the tail of the convoy, it was joined by a traffic flow with estimated volume of 1,800 veh/hr
and density of 30 veh/km. Since it was impossible to overtake, a platoon density of 200 veh/km
was formed. If the head of the convoy exited the highway after moving 7 km:
a. Draw approximately the q-k diagram showing shock waves.
b. Estimate the length of queue after the convoy has cleared the road.
c. Estimate how long it would take to disperse the platoon queue.
(Assume capacity of the road = 2400 veh/jr at density = 80 veh/km; jam density os at 150
veh/km)
3: TRAFFIC FLOW FUNDAMENTALS
Solution:
a. q-k diagram
Duration of 7 km trip (Note convoy has length of 0.5 km, thus end of queue clears after
covering 7.5 km) = 7.5 / 5 = 1.5 hrs
Maximum length of queue: 1.5 x 9.706 = 14.559 km
PROBLEMS
1. Passenger car unit (PCU) is used to convert mixed type of traffic into a single unit, which
is the car. If PCU values are given for the different types of vehicles.
Determine the volume in pcu per hour for the given traffic data.
2. Five cars are traveling at constant speeds 24, 31, 28, 35, 19 kph, respectively, in a
uniform section og highway 4 km long. Determine the time mean and space mean speeds.
Which one is higher, time mean speed or space mean speed? Can you think of the reason
why this is so?
3. Using a surveillance camera, 15 vehicles were observed within 350 m section of the
innermost lane of the North Luzon Expressway. Determine the traffic density of the
innermost lane. Also, estimate the average spacing of these vehicles.
4. To measure the spot speed of vehicles on a certain accident-prone location along
MacArthur Highway, a trap length equal to 40 m long was set. The times in seconds
clocked by an observer for 24 vehicles were:
Determine the spot speed or time mean speed. If the maximum speed limit at the
location was set at 60 kph, determine the percentage of drivers violating the regulation?
(Note: This is just an illustrative problem; more data are actually needed for this kind of
analysis.)
3: TRAFFIC FLOW FUNDAMENTALS
5. On the average, a UP Ikot jeepney arrives every 2.2 minutes at a certain jeepney stop
during peak hours. If the average load factor observed is 16 passengers per jeepney,
estimate the total passengers carried in 1 hour.
6. The spacing of moving traffic in queue can be modeled by
(in meters)
where u is the traffic speed in kilometers per hour. Determine the maximum
traffic flow and the speed and density at which this occurs.
7. Estimate the capacity of a given highway with density equal to 110 veh/km during jam
condition and with a speed of 80 kph during free glow condition. Assume a linear relation
between density and speed.
8. In a problem 7, if the density at one point in time is 90 veh/km, determine the
corresponding speed.
9. Before major rehabilitation, the daily traffic volumes of the section along the South
Luzon Expressway and national highway going to Batangas are shown in the table below.
Determine the level of service of each section. Assume peak hour factor of 8 percent and
a directional distribution of 60 percent. Make other assumption based on your
observations/experience.
10. Derive the relation between time occupancy and density for each of the following cases:
a. Ultrasonic detector (the detector emits an ultrasonic wave toward the pavement at a
single point.)
3: TRAFFIC FLOW FUNDAMENTALS
b. Inductance loop detector (the detector is a magnetic wire loop embedded on the
pavement with dimensions d x d meters).
11. A square inductance loop detector embedded in the pavement has a dimension of w
meters on one side. This detector is used to estimate time occupancy Ot of vehicles over
observation time T. If the average length of vehicles is l meters, determine the density k
in terms of Ot.
12. Data obtained from a survey are as follows:
Analyze the problem using queuing theory. If you are the operator of the truck
terminal, will you retain the 2 platforms, reduce it to 1, or increase it to at least 3?
18. A provincial bus terminal operating 24 hours has 5 bays. On a daily basis, about 200
buses arrive at the terminal. If no bay is available, the arriving bus has to wait outside,
thereby causing problems for through traffic. On the average, a bus leaves a bay every
hour.
Assess the present operation of the bus terminal. Furthermore, due to the
projected increase in passenger demand, it is expected that the arrivals of buses will
increase by 5 buses every year. Determine the required number of bus bays for better
operation of the terminal for the next 10 years.
19. Traffic flow at the rate of 1200 veh/hr and density of 20 veh/km joined the tail of 400 m
long Santacruzan procession moving at a pace of 3 kph. Since it was impossible to pass,
a platoon density of 190 veh/km was formed. The head of the procession was expected ti
exit the road after moving 1 km. (Capacity of the road = 2000 veh/hr at density = 45
veh/km; jam density at 200 veh/km).
a. Draw approximately the q-k diagram to show the computation of shock wave.
b. Estimate the length of queue after Santacruzan procession has cleared the road.
c. Estimate how long it would take to disperse the platoon queue.
20. A public school holds its flag ceremonies every Monday from 7:00 AM to 7:15 AM.
During the singing of the national anthem, which lasts for about 2 minutes, all drivers
stop in front of the school as an act of respect. Determine the characteristics of the shock
waves formed by this activity. Estimate the time required for the traffic flow to be back to
normal.
3: TRAFFIC FLOW FUNDAMENTALS
21. Traffic flow on a single lane is moving with a free flow speed of 40 kph and density of 50
veh/km. This flow is stopped for 45 seconds at an intersection controlled by signals. Assume
jam density of 250 veh/km.
a. What would be the speed and direction of the stopping wave?
b. What would be the length of cars stopped?
REFERENCES
Ang, Alfredo H.S., and Wilson H. Tang. 1975. Probability concepts in engineering planning and
design. Vol. 1. New York: John Wiley & Sons.
Gerlough, Daniel L., and Matthew J. Huber. 1975. Meic flow theory: A monograph. Special Report
165, Transportation Research Board, National Research Council.
Planning Service, Ministry of Public Works and Highways. 1982. The Philippine highway
planning manual. Vol. 2. Manila.
Tagapolot, Humprey Ariel P. 1997. Effects of lane blockage on the traffic flow behavior at
expressway. MA thesis, College of Engineering, University of the Philippines Diliman.
Transportation Research Board. 1965. Highway capacity manual. National Research Council.
2000. Highway capacity manual. National Research Council.
4: TRAFFIC STUDIES
4.1 INTRODUCTION
Several variables have been discussed in the previous chapter. They provide the basic
information necessary for meaningful planning, design, and analysis of highways and other road
transportation infrastructure. Equally important is the manner these data are obtained or collected
in the field. Traffic studies generally involve time and may entail much cost. It is therefore
necessary to plan carefully all data collection efforts. This chapter discusses the methodology for
conducting surveys, how they are processed and analyzed.
Traffic volume is the most basic data needed for any traffic studies. Volume studies are
conducted to obtain factual information on the number of vehicles and/or persons that pass at a
specified point on the highway system. The resulting volume data are expressed in relation to
time.
a. Annual traffic is used for determining annual travel, estimating expected highway
user revenue, computing accident rates.
b. Annual average daily traffic (AADT) is used for measuring the present demand for
service by the road, programming capital improvements.
c. Hourly traffic is used for evaluating capacity deficiencies, geometric design or
improvement of streets and intersections.
d. Short-term count is used to estimate maximum flow rate and determine the
characteristics of peak hour volumes.
4: TRAFFIC STUDIES
a. Mid-block counts are used for preparing traffic flow maps and determining trends.
b. Directional counts are used for determining directional distribution for capacity analysis,
signal timing, justifying traffic control, etc.
c. Turning movement or intersection counts are used for signal timing, designing or
improving geometry of intersection, planning turning prohibition, analyzing high
accident intersections.
d. Classification counts are used for determining modal split, estimating effects of heavy
vehicles on capacity, determining correction factors for automatic counts.
e. Cordon counts are used to determine the number of vehicles and/or persons entering and
leaving an enclosed area.
f. Screen line counts are classified counts taken at some points along a line that bisects a
given area.
The time and duration of a traffic volume study depends on the type and application of the
data to be gathered. Some of the typical counts are as follows:
a. Twenty-four-hour counts from midnight to midnight
b. Sixteen-hour counts from 6 AM to 10 PM to represent most of daily flow, including evening
traffic
c. Twelve-hour counts from 6 AM to 6 PM to cover most of daytime traffic
d. Peak period counts from 7 AM to 9 AM, 5 PM to 7 PM, or other time intervals corresponding to
very high level of traffic volume
e. Short counts of about one hour or less with intervals of 5-15 minutes to analyze
characteristics of peak hours.
Abnormal conditions are usually avoided unless the purpose is to obtain information
concerning those conditions. These would include
a. special occasions such as public holidays or fiestas
4: TRAFFIC STUDIES
4.2.4 Methods
A. By tallying
This is the simplest and sometimes most practical in the absence of any mechanical or
automatic counting device. Tally sheets are used to record the number of vehicles. The method may be
used when traffic volume is generally low or when observing a particular turning movement whose
volume is relatively low. A filled up sample form is shown in figure 4.1.
Figure 4.1
From used for manual tally
pneumatic tube laid transversely across the road. A counter is actuated when tires
pass over the tube. More sophisticated detectors make use of ultrasonic waves or
inductance loops.
Traffic volume summaries may be presented in ways that should be easily understood
by the readers, some of which are as follows:
a. Variations
Figure 4.2
Sample daily variation of traffic volume within a week
4: TRAFFIC STUDIES
b. Flow Maps
Figure 4.3
Sample flow map of annual daily traffic
4: TRAFFIC STUDIES
c. Intersection Diagram
Figure 4.4
Sample intersection flow summary
The annual average daily traffic or AADT has been a common measure of daily traffic at
a given location. At a given point along a particular highway, it is estimated as the total volume
counted over one year divided by the number of days in the year, or
AADT = sum of all vehicles passing the site in a year / 365 (4.1)
4: TRAFFIC STUDIES
Doing counts throughout the year is a tedious task if done manually. Automatic detectors
are therefore used to do the count manually. As previously mentioned, the simplest type of
detector to perform automatic counting is the pneumatic tube laid transversely on the highway. A
counter connected to the tube is actuated by the passage of the wheels. It is the vehicles axles
that are actually counted. There is, therefore, a need to conduct a separate traffic volume survey
over a shorter period considering the different mix of traffic. This will then be used to calibrate
the counts obtained from the detectors.
Another measure of daily traffic is the average daily traffic or ADT. This is obtained by
conducting traffic volume counts over a number of days at least 2 days and less than 365 days.
The Department of Public Works and Highways is programming the conduct of such counts in
such a way at to have good estimates of AADT for all national highways by applying some
seasonal factors.
Daily volumes, AADT in particular, are useful in highway planning or in prioritizing
some maintenance or repairs of roads. However, they cannot be used along for design or
operational analysis purposes because in many cases, the traffic volume varies greatly
throughout the day.
The period during which speeds are measured depends on the purpose of the study.
Abnormal conditions such as adverse weather condition or unusually heavy traffic condition
should be avoided. The duration of the study should be around one hour. Short study period will
often lead to bias towards faster vehicles.
4.3.3 Methods
A number of methods for conducting spot speed studies are available. The lack of
equipment does not pose any problem as long as the procedure is done systematically.
Manual method
A very useful and less expensive way of conducting spot speed studies is called the “trap
length” method. In this method, two lines, 30-50 m apart, are drawn transversely on the
4: TRAFFIC STUDIES
pavement. A stopwatch is then used to measure the “travel time” of the vehicle within the “trap”.
The length of the trap is divided by the travel time estimate the speed. The observer must be well
trained in order to reduce error attributed to parallax, a common error in most visual methods of
conducting surveys.
An alternative to conducting spot speed directly in the field is to take video of the traffic
flow and watch it at a later time in the office. Markings on the pavement may be drawn before
the video is taken. Another way is to put markers on the roadside that will help draw the “trap”
on the TV screen or monitor.
Spot speed data are usually summarized in a frequency table. Data are normally grouped
together in predetermined class intervals, and distributions are calculated.
There are no strict rules in deciding the number of speed class intervals. However, the
Sturgess formula
(4.2)
where
k – number of class intervals
n – total number of observations
may serve as a guide in determining the initial number of class intervals. It may be further
refined later. Preferably, the value of the midclass of each interval should be an integer or a
whole number to help simplify computations.
Example 4.1
Table 4.1 shows how spot speed data are summarized. For the estimation of the mean and
standard deviation, the data were grouped. The last two columns were added to facilitate
computation of these parameters.
4: TRAFFIC STUDIES
Table 4.1
Spot speed summary for grouped data
The mean and variance were obtained using the following formulas for grouped data:
Mean, (4.3)
Variance, (4.4)
The graph of the spot speed frequency distribution is shown in figure 4.5. It may be
observed that spot speed distribution would likely follow a normal distribution.
4: TRAFFIC STUDIES
Figure 4.5
Spot speed frequency histogram
4.4.1 Methods
Figure 4.6
Sample travel time and delay field sheet
Example 4.2
A single test run along the national highway in Calamba, Laguna, is shown in table 4.2.
Determine the average travel speed and draw the sectional travel time and speed diagrams.
Solution:
The travel speed of each section is computed in the last column of the table The two
diagrams represent distance-time and distance-speed diagrams, respectively.
4: TRAFFIC STUDIES
Table 4.2
Summary of travel time and delay survey along national highways in Calamba, Laguna
Figure 4.7
Time-distance diagram for Example 4.2
Figure 4.8
Travel speed-distance diagram for Example 4.2
4: TRAFFIC STUDIES
Example 4.3
Table 4.3 below show filled up field sheets for a route origin-destination survey using
license plate method. Determine the travel times of those vehicles that were observed at both
survey stations.
Solution:
It may be observed that the plate numbers XKR748, TNU210, and 888888 were recorded
in both forms. The corresponding travel times are 55 minutes, 50 minutes, and 45 minutes,
respectively.
Table 4.3
Sample filled up sheets for license plate method
4: TRAFFIC STUDIES
Figure 4.9
Diagram showing how the moving observer travels back and fourth
Consider the road section L as shown. Suppose we are to obtain information on volume,
speed, and density of the traffic flow from a to b.
Let tw – travel time of test car when travelling with the stream
ta – travel time of test car when travelling against the stream
t – total travel time = tw + ta
4: TRAFFIC STUDIES
m – number of vehicles met by the test car when traveling against the stream
o – number of vehicles overtaking the test car when travelling with the stream
p = number of vehicles passed by the test car when traveling with the stream
Note that p vehicles must be deducted because the test car will meet them again when
travelling back. Over the total time of observation t, the flow rate q therefore is:
(4.6)
To determine the traffic stream’s speed or space mean speed, it is necessary to know the
average travel time of the traffic flow over the road section L.
If the test car is travelling at speed faster than the average speed of the traffic stream, then
there will be more passed vehicles than overtaking vehicles, giving a net of (p-o) vehicles (figure
4.10). Also, if the test car is travelling at speed slower than the average speed of the stream, then
there will be more overtaking vehicles than overtaken vehicles, a net of (o-p) vehicles. In other
words, the test car is supposed to be travelling at average speed when the net of overtaken and
overtaking vehicles is zero. Another way of stating this is, when one vehicle overtakes the test
car, it must also overtake one vehicle but not necessarily the one that has overtaken it.
4: TRAFFIC STUDIES
Figure 4.10
Test car travelling at average speed must have a net of (o – p) = 0.
Assuming that flow rate is the same within any time period, then,
(4.7)
or
(4.8)
in case of the test car travelling at speed slower than the average speed.
Also,
(4.9)
or
(4.10)
in case of the test car travelling at speed faster than the average speed.
4: TRAFFIC STUDIES
It can be seen that in both cases, the same result is obtained for the value of the average
travel time. Hence, in general,
(4.11)
The average speed of the traffic stream over the section L is obtained:
(4.12)
Finally, the density k may be computed as a derived quantity:
(4.13)
If information on both directions is desired, two teams are utilized to do the same routine
of going back and forth transversing the road section L.
In conducting this survey, the ease in negotiating a U-turn is a major factor that would
affect the accuracy of the survey results. The road section must be as homogeneous as possible,
e.g., uniform road width all throughout the section; entry and exit points should be minimal; very
few jeepneys or buses stopping for loading and unloading, etc. In practice, at least six round trips
are performed to achieve good results.
Example 4.4
A survey on a 1.2 km highway was conducted using the moving observer method. During
the morning peak hour, the test car was able to complete 6 runs for each direction. Determine the
traffic volume, average traffic speed, and density.
Eastbound trips:
4: TRAFFIC STUDIES
Westbound trips:
Solution:
The average 6 runs is computed for each direction.
With L = 1.2 km, the average speeds are computed using equation 4.12:
PROBLEMS
1. Draw the intersection diagram for the given traffic volume summary of a T-intersection:
4: TRAFFIC STUDIES
2. The following spot speed data (in kph) were obtained from a city road.
5. A survey using moving observer method was conducted to obtain information on volume,
speed, and density. Five observations were made at different times of the day and the
results of the survey for a particular direction of flow are as follows:
Estimate the capacity of the highway section for the given direction of flow.
6. Develop a survey methodology to determine the volumes and average travel speeds of
traffic hat are using the bypass and the national highways. Naturally, you would try to
minimize the number of surveyors so as to minimize the survey cost.
REFERENCES
ALMEC Corporation. 1999. Metro Manila Urban Transportation Integration Study. Final
Report.
Institute of Transportation Engineers. 2000. Manual of transportation engineering studies.
Washington, D.C.: ITE.
Pline, James L., ed. 1992. Traffic engineering handbook. 4th ed. Institute of Transportaion
Engineers and Prentice Hall.
4: TRAFFIC STUDIES
Sigua, R., and C. Montalbo Jr. 2005. Calamba City of Public Transport Terminal Study Draft
Report, December.
Transporting Training Cneter. 1983. Course notes on transportation and traffic technology.
Quezon City: University of the Philippines.
5: INTERSECTION DESIGN AND CONTROL
5.1 INTRODUCTION
Intersections play an important role in any network system. They are the points where
traffic flow converges and where direction of travel changes. Intersections may be categorized
according to shape, type of structure, and type of operation.
Shape
This refers to the configuration of the intersection and would depend largely on the
number of legs. Carefully planned and properly designed road networks often lead to
intersections with simpler shape having lesser number of legs. Some of the most commonly
observed intersection configuration is the following:
a. Three-leg: T or Y
d. Rotary or roundabout
Type of structure
Most of the intersections are either designed as at-grade intersection or grade separation
such as flyovers or interchanges. Almost all intersections are initially designed at-grade and are
planned to be grade-separated in the future to cope with high traffic volume. The type of grade
separation depends largely on the extend of improvement it would provide in terms of easing
congestion or reducing traffic accidents.
Type of operation
Rules and regulations applied to a given intersection depend largely on the type of control
which is in operation at that intersection. The main objective is to simplify traffic flow. This is
often achieved by reducing the number of conflicts of vehicles.
An intersection operates as unchannelized or channelized, and unsignalized or signalized.
Channelization often leads to simplified movements of vehicles as it leads drivers to one conflict
at a time. On the other hand, signalization greatly crossing conflicts at the intersection area.
b. Staggered intersections should be avoided. Due to proximity of the two side roads,
inadequate length of storage lane for left vehicles often causes blockage of the through
traffic.
c. Main traffic flow should be near straight as possible. Sharp turns, such as left and right
turns, cause unnecessary reduction in traffic speeds.
d. Roads should not intersect at a small angle. Oblique intersections pose potential hazards
and cause high severity of accidents due to the almost head-to-head collision of vehicles.
An angle of 60 degrees must be considered as the minimum.
e. Two intersections should be as far as possible from each other. In addition to the reason
cited in (2), adequate weaving sections may not be provided. As a rule of thumb, the
distance between the two intersections must be
For instance, if the prevailing speed is 30 kph and three are four lanes in one direction,
the distance between the two intersections must be at least 30 x 4 x 2 = 240 m.
5: INTERSECTION DESIGN AND CONTROL
Turning geometry
The principal purpose of an intersection is to provide change in the direction of travel. As
a vehicle approaches an intersection, the driver has to decide whether to go straight or to turn to
left or right. For turning movements, a number of turning geometries may be considered, the
most direct of which is highly preferred. Configurations of turning geometries are shown below:
a. Direct
b. Semidirect
c. Indirect
5: INTERSECTION DESIGN AND CONTROL
These types of turning movements may be found as elements of the interchanges shown
below:
The different elements of an intersection are shown in figure 5.1. The adequacy in design
of each element must be carefully checked, considering traffic flow and availability of right of
way.
5: INTERSECTION DESIGN AND CONTROL
Figure 5.2
Three-centered curve
Conflicts often occur at intersections. The more the number of legs an intersection has,
the more the number of conflicts it has. Figure 5.3 shows the number of conflicts of three-leg and
four-leg intersections.
5: INTERSECTION DESIGN AND CONTROL
Figure 5.3
Conflict diagrams for three-leg and four leg intersections
Conflicts may be classified as merging, diverging, or crossing conflicts. Table 5.1 gives a
summary of these conflicts. The total number increases exponentially with the number of legs of
the intersection. Most of the problems at intersections, like congestion and accidents, are caused
by crossing conflicts.
Table 5.1
Types and number of conflicts
Depending on the traffic volume using the intersection and the severity of conflicts,
intersection control may fall under any of the following categories:
a. Unsignalized
b. Signalized
c. Grade separation
5: INTERSECTION DESIGN AND CONTROL
small angles, weaving, and diverging when leaving the intersection. When traffic signals’ cost
proved to be costly, roundabout is a good alternative.
Figure 5.4
Roundabout (all vehicles move in one-way fashion)
(Photo taken by author.)
Figure 5.5
A U-turn slot in Quezon City
(Photo taken by author.)
5: INTERSECTION DESIGN AND CONTROL
Figure 5.6
Conflict diagrams for different types of control for a four-leg intersections
5: INTERSECTION DESIGN AND CONTROL
Table 5.2 shows a comparison in terms of number of conflicts and the applicable type of
control or regulation for these four types of intersection.
Table 5.2
Comparison of types of control for a four-leg intersection
Figure 5.7
Grade separation or interchanges
A large number of intersections all over the country are still without traffic signals. It is
therefore necessary to have a means of analysis of the performance of this type of intersection so
as to find appropriate measures to minimized congestion and reduce the occurrence of traffic
accidents.
The method presented in this section was the basis of the method discussed in the US
Highway Capacity Manual with some modifications. In our case, it may be better to introduce
the original method. As new researches on the topic are conducted, modifications may be done to
suit local conditions.
The method calculates the maximum flow in any given minor road traffic stream. It is
them compared with the existing traffic flow to estimate the reserve capacity. The probable delay
and level of service are determined based on this reserve capacity.
5: INTERSECTION DESIGN AND CONTROL
Consider the four-leg intersection below. Minor movements are movements coming from
the side road or minor road. In addition, the left turn movements from the major road are also
m=considered minor. But in terms of hierarchy, these left turn movements have higher priority
than the movements coming from the minor road.
The method requires that the traffic movements be dealt with in the following order:
a. Right turns into the major road
b. Left turns off the major road
c. Traffic crossing the major road
d. Left turns into the major road
Table 5.3
Major road traffic streams
5.5.3 Capacity
In the estimation of capacity of the minor road flow, the basic capacity is initially
determined. Based on the major road flows given by Mh, and values of critical gap tg, the value
of the basic capacity Mno is read from the graph shown in figure 5.8.
5: INTERSECTION DESIGN AND CONTROL
Table 5.4
Critical gap tg for passenger cars, sec.
Figure 5.8
Basic capacity of minor road flow
5: INTERSECTION DESIGN AND CONTROL
The basic capacity is the maximum minor road flow, assuming that the following
conditions are true:
a. The traffic on the major road Mh does not block the major road.
b. A turning lane is provided for the exclusive use of the minor road traffic stream.
If these conditions are not met, correction factors have to be implied based on the
following considerations:
a. Congestion on the major road
If a traffic stream turning off the major road becomes congested and thus
interferes with the minor road traffic, then the basic capacity is reduced. A p-value is
obtained from figure 5.9 and is applied as a reduction factor. The p-value defines the
probability that this minor road traffic stream remains unaffected. The ration of the actual
flow and the capacity of the same flow is initially used to determine the p-value.
Figue 5.9
Reducation factor due to possible congestion of movement of major road
5: INTERSECTION DESIGN AND CONTROL
b. Shared lanes
Shared lanes on the minor road approach are lanes in which two or more
movements are confine in the same lane. When corners of the intersection have a large
turning radius, the effect of shared lanes may be minimal or may be ignored since minor
vehicles can stop side by side at the edge of the major road.
The capacity of the share lane can be determined using the equation
(5.1)
where Mn - capacity of all streams using the shared lane
Mna, Mnb, Mnc - capacity of individual streams
a, b, b - contribution of the individual streams to the total volume using the
shared lane.
Table 5.5
PCU values of different vehicle types
5: INTERSECTION DESIGN AND CONTROL
Table 5.6
Reserve capacity
Example 5.1
Consider the channelized T-intersection with the minor road controlled by YIELD sign.
There is no prevailing speed limit. Evaluate the performance of the unsignalized intersection.
5: INTERSECTION DESIGN AND CONTROL
Solution:
Following the logical order of analysis as suggested:
a. Right turn into major road
Overall evaluation: The left turn traffic into major road experiences very long delay.
There are no problems with the other minor flow. The left turn off major road is not likely to
block the through traffic.
Example 5.2
Evaluate the unsignalized intersection with the two minor road approaches controlled by
STOP signs. The traffic volumes shown are in vehicles per hour (vph). There is no prevailing
speed limit.
5: INTERSECTION DESIGN AND CONTROL
Solution:
Due to symmetry of traffic volume data, only the analysis of the minor road approach C
will be shown. The same condition is expected in approach D.
a. Right turn into major road
Overall evaluation: the intersection requires improvement. Traffic signals and geometric
improvement (channelization) may be necessary.
The elements of the roundabout are shown in figure 5.10. Roundabout with large central
island are known to operate better as they provide ample weaving sections that normally dictate
the capacity of the intersection.
Figure 5.10
Some design elements of a roundabout
5: INTERSECTION DESIGN AND CONTROL
For the analysis and design of roundabouts, British practice will be discussed in this
section (Salter 1976(. The focus is the capacity of the weaving section, which is given by the
equation
(5.2)
where w – the width of the weaving section in meters
e – the average width of entries to the weaving section in meters;
These variables are defined in figure 5.11, which shows a typical weaving section
Figure 5.11
Weaving section
5: INTERSECTION DESIGN AND CONTROL
The capacity formula is valid under the following conditions, although there is no reason
to believe that the formula does not hold if any variable lies a little outside the values given:
The design of roundabouts is usually done by trial and error. Weaving width and length
are assumed and then checked for adequacy of capacity. As roundabouts have a tendency to lock
when overloaded, it is important that they have adequate reserve capacity.
Example 5.3
Consider the Y-junction with the given traffic volume to be designed as a roundabout.
Table 5.7
Types and number of conflicts
5: INTERSECTION DESIGN AND CONTROL
With the traffic volume superimposed, section AB is the weaving section with a critical
volume of 1,300 vehicles per hour.
Assuming the following:
The other sections (AC and BC) may be designed with the same parameters, this
providing large reserve capacity.
For intersections with relatively low traffic volumes typically found in rural and suburban
areas, traffic may be assumed to arrive at the intersection in random fashion. Likewise, the same
randomness of arrivals may be observed where spacing between intersections is of considerable
distance. In these situations, signals may not be necessary and the intersection has to be
controlled by traffic signs as discussed in the previous chapter.
The control of traffic intersections by traffic signals is done by separation in time, i.e.,
conflicts between opposing or merging streams are prevented by giving the right of way to a
given direction. This separation in time is termed as signal phasing. And it can be seen that the
more the number of conflicts, the more the number of phasing needed. However, in some cases
as in a major street-minor street intersection, or in approaches where left-turning volume is
relatively low, a separate phasing for the minor flow may not be necessary. The number of
phases employed at any intersection must be kept to a minimum, compatible with safety because
with every phase added, there is a corresponding additional loss of green time, which eventually
leads to increased intersection delay.
Isolated
A particular intersection may be considered isolated if arrivals of vehicles at its approach
are random. Consider the traffic flow at the two signalized intersections A and B are shown in
figure 5.12. Supposing a queue formed in A proceeds toward intersection B. If the queue has
dispersed and vehicles arrive at random at B, then B may be considered as an isolated
intersection. Naturally, this will happen only when distance between the two intersections is far
or when traffic volume is relatively low. In highly built up areas such as the city or town centers,
it is unlikely to have this kind of intersection.
Figure 5.12
Two intersection distant apart (Isolated intersections may be controlled either pre-time or
actuated.)
Pre-time signal
Pre-time or fixed time signals work best when there is not much fluctuation in traffic
flow. The pre-time signal controller may be of a single or multiprogram type of controller. The
single-program controller makes use of one set of signal parameters to control traffic flow
throughout the day or during the period when the signal is in operation. On the other hand, the
multiprogram type makes use of a number of sets parameters. This offers greater flexibility and
may be able to cope with the fluctuating demand within the day (figure 5.13). Nowadays, a
controller with dive or more programs is not uncommon.
Figure 5.13
Programming per-time signal control
5: INTERSECTION DESIGN AND CONTROL
The Manual on Uniform Traffic Control Devices for Streets and Highways (MUTCD)
cites the advantages of pre-time control:
a. Consistent starting time and duration of intervals of pre-time control facilities
coordination with adjacent traffic signals especially when they are on two or more
intersecting streets or in a grid system. This coordination may permit progressive
movement and a degree of speed control through a system of several well-spaced traffic
signals. Pre-time control provides more precise coordination that allows maximum
efficiency in the operation of two or more very closely spaced intersections operating
under the capacity conditions, when the timing relationship between intersections is
critical.
b. Pre-time controllers are not dependent for proper operation on the movement of
approaching vehicles past detectors. Thus the operation of the controller is not adversely
affected by conditions preventing normal movement past a detector such as stopped
vehicle or construction work within the area.
c. Pre-time control may be acceptable than traffic-actuated control in areas where large and
fairly consistent pedestrians volume are present, and where confusion may occur as to the
operation of pedestrian push buttons.
d. Generally the installed cost of pre-time equipment is less than that of traffic-actuated
equipment, and the former is simpler and more easily maintained.
Traffic-actuated
For isolated intersections where randomness of arrivals is expected, traffic actuated type
of signal control is appropriate (figure 5.14). In this system, detectors are located only on the
approaches of the minor road. With this set up, continuous green time may be given to the major
road traffic flow. Right of way is given to the minor road only when demand is detected. In case
of two roads where no clear priority is given to any direction, the fully actuated type of control is
sometimes utilized. In this scheme, all approaches are provided with detectors.
When the interval of time between vehicles crossing the detector becomes greater than
the last unit extension period, the right of way is transferred to the other directions. When there is
heavy volume of traffic in a particular direction, successive demand for extension period may
5: INTERSECTION DESIGN AND CONTROL
happen and this will lead to continuous green indication. Hence, a present maximum green
period is necessary to limit the length of the green period. It can be expected that when traffic
demand is heavy in all approaches, green period may always reach the maximum resulting in an
almost fixed-time operation.
Figure 5.14
Types of traffic-actuated signals
In a general, a minimum green period or shortest period of right of way is given to any
phase. This minimum green period is long enough to clear the vehicles waiting between location
of the detector and the stop line, and it may be extended for as long as continuous demand for the
right of way exists. Such extension periods are individually and not cumulatively set. Figure 5.15
shows how traffic-actuated control works.
5: INTERSECTION DESIGN AND CONTROL
Figure 5.15
Green time extensions for traffic-actuated control
THE MUTCD gives the special advantages of traffic-actuated control, which include the
following:
a. Traffic-actuated control may provide maximum efficiency at intersections where
fluctuations in traffic cannot be anticipated and programmed for with pre-time control.
b. Traffic-actuated control may provide maximum efficiency at complex intersections
where one or more movements are sporadic or subject to variation in volume.
c. Traffic-actuated control will usually provide maximum efficiency at intersections of a
major street and a minor street vehicular or pedestrian traffic, and also by restricting such
interruptions to the minimum time required.
d. Traffic-actuated control may provide maximum efficiency at intersections unfavourably
located within progressive pre-time systems, where interruptions of major street traffic
are undesirable and must be held to a minimum in frequency and duration.
e. Traffic-actuated control may provide the advantages of continuous stop-and-go operation
without unnecessary delay to traffic on the major street, whereas isolated pre-time signals
are sometimes switched to flashing operation during periods of light traffic.
f. Traffic-actuated control is particularly applicable at locations where traffic signal control
is warranted for only brief periods during the day.
g. Traffic-actuated control tends to reduce any hazard associated with the arbitrary stopping
of vehicles.
5: INTERSECTION DESIGN AND CONTROL
Coordinated
Where randomness can no longer be ensured and there is a need for continuous
movement over an arterial, coordination or synchronization of the timing of the signals in series
is required. A number of methods are used to achieve this. This methods are discussed at the last
section of this chapter.
It is also possible that within an arterial, subgroups consisting of a number of
intersections may be developed (figure 5.16). Each subgroup is treated independently from
another subgroup.
Figure 5.16
Subgrouping of intersections for efficient control
Figure 5.17
Road network in urban centers suited for area traffic control
5: INTERSECTION DESIGN AND CONTROL
5.7.3 Phase
Phasing is a process by which right of way is given to particular movements in a logical
manner with the primary purpose of minimizing the number of conflicts. The number of conflicts
at an intersection depends largely on the geometry of the intersection and turning prohibition. It
may be observed that as the number of legs of the intersection increases, the number of conflicts
increases exponentially.
Figure 5.18
Saturation flow rate determination
5: INTERSECTION DESIGN AND CONTROL
In planning for the appropriate phase pattern for a particular intersection, the major
factors o be considered are the traffic volume and any turning regulation/prohibition. Oftentimes,
it is the left turn movement that gives the problem at an intersection as it complicates and
increases the number of the required phases. Nevertheless, the basic principle is to minimize the
number of phases commensurate with safety.
Given the geometry of the intersection and a set of traffic volume, there are actually
many possibilities of developing phase patterns. The role of the traffic engineer is to find out the
most appropriate one to meet the requirements of meeting the traffic demand and providing
safety to all road users.
Some of the most common phase patterns are shown in figure 5.19:
a. Two-phase system
b. Three-phase system
Figure 5.19
Typical phase patterns
Again, in developing appropriate phase patterns, each phase should not combine any
major conflicting movements. In the two-phase system shown in figure 5.19a, for example, the
through and the right turn traffic may have some conflict. However, this is normally of diverging
type and may not pose a problem as long as the vehicles stay on their respective lanes. Phase 1,
for example, does not allow a left turn movement. This is the situation when this movement is
prohibited in the intersection or when the number of left turn vehicles is so small that it does not
warrant a left turn phase. However, when left turn movement becomes problematic, it is often
5: INTERSECTION DESIGN AND CONTROL
necessary to provide a separate left turn phase as shown in figure 5.19b. Here are some basic
guidelines when planning for the phase patterns.
a. Start with the most problematic/heavy movement. Add movements one at a time and see
to it that they are not in conflict with the previous movements.
b. The number of phases must not exceed the number of legs of the intersection. (Note:
patterns with overlapping movements will be discussed in a separate section. They are
not really counted as phases.)
c. Rearrange the phase patterns so as to follow a logical order.
Figure 5.20
Lost times consisting of starting loss and all-red period
5: INTERSECTION DESIGN AND CONTROL
5.7.5 Cycle
A cycle is one complete indication of green, yellow and red. Its length is constant for a
pre-time or fixed time signal. It varies for traffic-actuated signals depending on traffic demand.
The fundamental relation between intersection delay and cycle length is shown in figure
5.21.
Figure 5.21
Cycle and delay relation (Co provides the minimum delay.)
It can be seen that using either a long or short cycle will lead to long delay, with very
short cycle giving worse results. The objective of signal timing is to minimized delay. There are
other objective functions – travel speed, fuel consumption, emissions, etc.- but they are all
related to delay. Reducing delay would lead to better speed, fuel savings, and lesser emissions.
The cycle corresponding to least intersection delay is termed as the optimum cycle length.
Webster’s formula is widely used to estimate this cycle length. The equation is given by
(5.3)
where L – total lost time
Y – sum of y-values
The consumption of cycle will be illustrated by an example.
Example 5.4
Consider the traffic volumes and saturation flow rates for the different movement:
5: INTERSECTION DESIGN AND CONTROL
Solution:
Analyzing the different movements, directions, and traffic volumes, a two-phase signal
may be appropriate.
For phase 1, the critical y-value is 0.325 while for phase 2, the critical y-value is 0.517.
This gives
Y-value = 0.325 + 0.517 = 0.842
For this two-phase signal, the loss time L is:
L = 2 x starting loss + 2 x all-red = 2 x 2 + 2 x 2 = 8 sec.
From equation 5.1, the optimum cycle length is:
(5.4)
Example 5.5
Consider the data in the previous example, allocate the green time to phases 1 and 2.
Solution:
The computed optimum cycle is 110 sec and the total lost time is 8 sec. This results to
total usable or effective green g:
(5.5)
where
s – saturation flow rate
g – effective green
C – cycle length
5: INTERSECTION DESIGN AND CONTROL
Example 5.6
In the previous example, determine the capacity of the south approach.
Solution:
The south approach has a saturation flow rate
s = 1,800 pcu/hr of green time
Its effective green is equal to the effective green of phase 2 (g2 = 63 sec)
Therefore:
(5.6)
The first term is the dominant term in the formula representing 90-95 percent of the total
average delay. From figure 5.22, this component of delay will be derived.
Figure 5.22
Delay representation per cycle
5: INTERSECTION DESIGN AND CONTROL
The total delay per cycle D is equal to the area of the triangle in figure 5.22.
(5.8)
Therefore, the average delay per vehicle per cycle is
(5.9)
Example 5.7
Using equation 5.9, estimate the average delay per vehicle per cycle of movement 3.
Solution:
Movement 3 has a y-value equal to 0.325. Its effective green is 39 sec.
Therefore, its effective red is
r = c – g1 = 100 – 39 = 71 sec
Using equation 5.9, the average delay is
5: INTERSECTION DESIGN AND CONTROL
Figure 5.23
Timing diagram for a two-phase system
Example 5.8
Draw the timing diagram for the problem in example 5.4
Solution:
The timing diagram is normally drawn using the actual green (not the effective green).
Actual green is computed as follows:
actual green + yellow = effective green + starting loss
(Note: yellow is considered usable and is part of the effective green)
Since yellow = 3 sec and starting loss = 2 sec
actual green = effective green – 1
For phase 1: actual green, G1 = 39 – 1 = 38 sec
For phase 2: actual green, G2 = 63 – 1 = 62 sec
The timing diagram is shown with the different components in seconds.
5: INTERSECTION DESIGN AND CONTROL
(5.10a)
On the other hand, the intersection degree of congestion X is given by
(5.10b)
It can be shown that the degree of the intersection is also the same as the degree of any
movement of approach if the allocation of green is based on the proportion of y-values.
Example 5.9
Compute for the degree of congestion of the intersection described in example 5.4.
Solution:
5: INTERSECTION DESIGN AND CONTROL
With the cycle, Y-value and L computed previously, equation 5.10b can be used to
determine the degree of congestion.
Equation 5.10a can also be used to compute for the intersection degree of congestion since green
times are allocated based on the proportion of y-values.
Consider movement 1 with volume = 930 pcu/hr and saturation flow rate of 1,800 pcu/hr.
Based on y-value of 0.517, its green time was computed as 62.6 sec. (This was rounded off to 63
sec in the previous calculations).
The degree of congestion of movement 1 based on equation 5.10a is
(5.11)
where Ycri is the sum of y-values of critical movements in Pi.
5: INTERSECTION DESIGN AND CONTROL
Figure 5.24 shows the three typical “stages” for vehicles at a T-intersection. The
corresponding critical movement diagram is shown in figure 5.25. The term “phases” is not used
because of the overlapping movements (defined as movements present in more than one stage),
namely: 1, 4, and 5. The cycle time and green time may be dictated by the time requirements of
any of the following sets: [1, 6], [3, 5], [2, 3, 6], or [2, 4]. Each sets consists of movements that
form a complete cycle. The set that gives the highest Y-value forms the critical movements. In
other words:
(5.12)
where n is total number of possible sets.
Figure 5.24
Three stages for a T-intersection
Figure 5.25
Critical movement diagram for the T-intersection
5: INTERSECTION DESIGN AND CONTROL
Example 5.10
Consider the T-intersection with given traffic data:
Solution:
Based on the traffic flow, the phase pattern or stages shown below may be considered:
Each of the following sets consists of movements that form a complete cycle:
without left turn phase, it is apparent that the left turners have to depend on the available gaps in
the opposing through traffic. Given a sufficient length of left turn bay, the interaction between
left turners and through traffic can be avoided. If there is no left turn bay, the left-turning
vehicles are mixed with straight-ahead and right-naming vehicles (in ease of single lane) on the
same approach. This may have the following effects on the traffic flow:
a. Because they are delayed from turning left by other vehicles in the traffic stream, they
delay straight-ahead vehicles that may be following them.
b. The presence of left-turning vehicles in a particular lane tends to inhibit the use of this
lane by straight-ahead vehicles.
c. Those left-turning vehicles that remain in the intersection after the expiration of the green
period delay the start of the next phase until they have completed their left-turning
maneuver.
hand, if there is a vehicle waiting, then a minimum green period is given, and it may be extended
when there is continuous demand.
In the case of no exclusive left turn phase, there is usually enough time for left turners
during green if there is relatively light opposing traffic. However, as opposing traffic increases,
long queue may not be able to give the left turners the chance to clear the intersection through
available gaps. Or even if the opposing queue ends, the green time left with random flow may be
too short to clear all left turners waiting for gaps. Observation at the intersection will show that
those left turners leading the queue position themselves in the center of the intersection and turn
during the yellow period or the start of red interval. For high opposing traffic, this hangmen
period serves as the main source of left-turning traffic.
In the case of no exclusive left turn phase, it can be said that left turn capacity greatly
depends on the amount of traffic opposing the left turn movement. The left-turning vehicles must
cross the intersection through gaps or lags. A simple representation of this phenomenon is shown
in figure 5.26.
The condition on the opposing approach is shown in a, b, and c while the condition of the
left turn movement is shown in d. Briefly, the opposing traffic accumulates during red period;
then, at the beginning of green plus starting loss, the traffic starts to move. During normal
conditions, the queue can be cleared after some of the green time has been utilized and later the
flow on the opposing traffic returns to free flow condition wherein the vehicles arrive and depart
from the stop line in random fashion. From this point of time on, until the green time ends, the
waiting left turners assess the gaps available to them. Normally, the decision whether or not to
accept the available gap is made in the following manner:
a. No driver will accept a gap in the opposing stream that he or she belies will certainly
lead to a collision.
b. No driver gains admittance through intimidation of the opposing stream drivers.
5: INTERSECTION DESIGN AND CONTROL
In reality, assumption b is oftentimes violated. This may be due to the driver’s irritation
caused by the length of time he or she has been delayed in the queue.
(5.13)
expresses the probability of the number of arrivals r in time t being greater than the storage
capacity k. A design based on this approach assumes that the storage provided allows through
traffic to proceed without interference and makes maximum use of the separate turning phase
through saturation flow away from the queue of vehicles in the storage lane.
5: INTERSECTION DESIGN AND CONTROL
This design approach which is frequently used by traffic engineers, generally forms the
basis for the storage length recommendation given by the American Association of State
Highway Officials (AASHO), which states. "At signalized intersections, the required storage
length depends on the cycle length, the signal phasing arrangement and the rate of arrivals and
departures of left turning vehicles. The storage length should be based on 1.5 to 2 times the
avenge number of vehicles that would store per cycle, predicated on the design volume."
Figure 5.27 shows a typical approach of an intersection when exclusive left turn lane is
provided, say, for k, vehicles. If the (k + 1)th vehicle arrives with intention of turning left, then it
has to occupy the adjacent lane, thereby blocking the through traffic in that particular lane.
resulting in a considerable reduction of the saturation flow rate of the through traffic. Also, the
same thing happens when there is heavy through traffic. If the through traffic queue length
exceeds that of the storage length, then these vehicles will block the use of the storage lane by
subsequent left-turning vehicles. And if this blocking of left-turning vehicles happens prior or
during the left turn phase for that approach, then only those vehicles stored in the left turn bay
can cross.
Figure 5.27
Blockage of through traffic due to inadequate length of left turn bay
5: INTERSECTION DESIGN AND CONTROL
stopped. If the number of lanes for one approach is 2, for example, it is reduced to 1 and the
saturation flow is greatly reduced, too. When there is no exclusive left turn lane provided, the left
turners greatly affect the flow of the through traffic. Also, the effect becomes considerable the
more the number of left turners waiting at the approach. Once a through-bound driver sees left
turners in the innermost lane, he normally keeps away from that lane.
This reduction of saturation flow rate of through traffic can also be applied to the case
where there is exclusive left turn lane provided. However, the problem is a little different since
blocking occurs at the junction of the left turn lane and the adjacent through lane. If left turn
volume is high and the left turn lane is inadequate, it may be expected that the left turn queue
will pile up until the adjacent through lane is blocked. Normally, at the start of through green, the
leaders of the left turn queue proceed to the center of the intersection and wait for available gaps
or leave the intersection immediately at the start of the left turn phase. This somehow eases the
problem of interblocking at the junction of left turn and through lanes. After some time from the
start of through green, blocking may no longer occur as the left turners at the end of the queue
have proceeded to the left turn lane.
Simultaneous system
All signals display the same color indication this is commonly used when intersections
are closely spaced, such as those along Espana.
5: INTERSECTION DESIGN AND CONTROL
Figure 5.28
Simultaneous system
A disadvantage of this system is that drivers tend to increase speed in order to pass as
many intersections as possible.
Alternating system
At any given instant of time, the driver sees intersections ahead with alternating green
and red indications. This system normally works well when the intersections are far apart.
Figure 5.29
Alternating system
5: INTERSECTION DESIGN AND CONTROL
Progressive system
The starts of green are arranged in such a way that traffic flow is uninterrupted and
bandwidth is optimized. The method works well for one-way systems or when one direction of
flow is given more priority over the other.
For coordination, it is better to use one common cycle for all the intersections. However,
if distances are irregular, some intersections may use two times the common cycle. In practice,
this common cycle time is usually the cycle time of the key intersection (i.e., the intersection that
normally requires the longest cycle time).
Figure 5.30
Progressive system
5: INTERSECTION DESIGN AND CONTROL
Example 5.11
Consider the 4 intersections 400 m apart and with the given traffic data. Determine the
common cycle and the actual green times that will be used for coordination.
The key intersection is B, requiring the longest cycle (140 sec). For this intersection,
green times are allocated as follows:
For the other intersections, the maximum actual green for other intersections depends on
the minimum effective green for the side roads. This minimum effective green is computed as
(5.14)
The table shows how the required minimum green is given to the side roads so as to
maximum the green along the N-S direction.
Finally, the actual green and red (in seconds) that will be used for coordinating the N-S
direction are as follows:
5: INTERSECTION DESIGN AND CONTROL
b. Knowing beforehand the common cycle time and its components (effective green and
red periods), a green or red is centred on the construction line. (The figure shows a
red [bold line] being centred on this line.)
5: INTERSECTION DESIGN AND CONTROL
d. Going to the next intersection, a red or a green is centered on the construction line,
with the start of green very close to the initial slopping line. In the figure a green is
centered on the line. The slopping line is then adjusted; this gives the new line (line
2).
5: INTERSECTION DESIGN AND CONTROL
f. Finally, a line is drawn parallel to line 3. This line represents the last vehicle in the
platoon that will be able to cross all intersections without stopping. Lines are also
drawn to represent the platoon going in the other direction. It can be seen that the
method procedures a balanced flow in both directions. The final desired speed can
also be estimated from the diagram (inverse of the slope of the line).
5.7.17 Offset
The difference in the start of green of two signalized intersections is called the offset.
Two types of definitions may be used:
5: INTERSECTION DESIGN AND CONTROL
a. Absolute offset
This would require one of the intersections to be defined as the key intersection.
Then, all offsets will be reckoned from it. O21 (read as “offset of 2 with respect to 1”)
and O31 are absolute offsets when intersection 1 is defined as the key intersection in
figure 5.31.
b. Relative offset
The offset of an intersection is defined with respect to an adjacent intersection O32
is a relative offset if intersection 1 is the key intersection.
Figure 5.31
Offset definition
5: INTERSECTION DESIGN AND CONTROL
PROBLEMS
1. Assuming that all movements are allowed in a five-leg intersection, determine the
number of vehicular crossing, merging, and diverging conflicts.
2. Given the T-intersection below:
(The numbers shown are traffic volume in pcu/hr and saturation flow rates in
pcu/hr of green time, respectively.)
a. Design appropriate phasing and draw critical movement diagram.
b. Determine optimum cycle.
c. Draw timing diagram.
d. Compute degree of congestion, X.
Use all-red = 2 sec.
3. Show that the degree of congestion of any critical movement is equal to the degree of
congestion of the intersection given by
5: INTERSECTION DESIGN AND CONTROL
4. For each approach of the intersection, allocate lanes for though and left and design
appropriate phasing so that the degree of congestion does not exceed 0.90.
5. Two intersections are 400 m apart. Common cycle time used is a 120 sec and green time
used for each intersection is 50 percent of the cycle. Determine if alternating or
simultaneous system is better if progression is desired for both directions. What will be
the recommended speed of progression?
6. For the given intersection, arrange the lanes (i.e., allocate lanes for through and left) of
each approach and design appropriate phasing so that the degree of congestion dies not
exceed 0.90.
Each approach can accommodate maximum of four lanes (through and left).
5: INTERSECTION DESIGN AND CONTROL
8. A four-leg intersection has the traffic volume information as shown. Due to the large
number of pedestrians crossing in all directions (including diagonal movements), a
scramble phase (i.e., exclusive phase for pedestrians) of 20 sec after all phases are given
to vehicles has been planned.
REFERENCES
Akcelik, Rahmi. 1987. Traffic signal setting: Capacity and timing analysis. Australian Road
Research Board
Allsop, Richard E. 1972. Delay at a fixed time traffic signal, I: Theoretical analysis.
Transportation Science 6, no.3.
Drew, Donald R. 1968. Traffic flow theory and control. McGraw-Hill Inc.
5: INTERSECTION DESIGN AND CONTROL
Evans, Henry K., 1950. Traffic engineering handbook. Second ed. New Haven, Connecticut:
Institute of Traffic Engineers.
Federal Highway Administration. 1988. Manual on uniform traffic control devices for streets
and highways. US Department of Transportation.
Japan Society of Traffic Engineers. 1988. The planning and design of at-grade intersections.
Mannering, Fred L., and Walter P. Kilareski. 1990. Princicples of highway engineering and
traffic analysis. John Wiley and Sons.
Organizations for Economic Cooperation and Development (OECD). 1978. Capacity of at-
grade junctions. Road Research Group, Paris.
Salter, R. J. 1976. Highway traffic analysis and design. Revised edition. MacMillan Press.
Sigua, R.G. 1984. A study on control of right turn traffic at signalized intersection. Master’s
thesis, Department of Civil Engineering, University of Tokyo.
------------- 1991. An expert system for intersection design and analysis. PhD diss.,
Department of Civil Engineering, University of Tokyo.
Transportation Research Board. 2000. Highway capacity manual. National Research
Council.
Webster, Frederick V. 1958. Traffic signal settings. Road Research Technical Paper No. 39.
Wright, Paul H. 1958. Simulation of traffic at a 4-way stop intersection. Analysis of Traffic
Flow symposium. Michigan.
6: GEOMETRIC DESIGN OG HIGHWAYS
6.1 INTRODUCTION
Design of highways basically covers the geometry of the horizontal and vertical
alignments, geotechnical aspects, pavement design, provision of drainage facilities and other
civil structures, but the traffic engineers’ main concern is the safety aspect of the design. Several
factors must be considered when designing a highway that is safe and pleasant to drive on. One
of these factors is the maximum speed that certain geometry may allow. Take the horizontal
curvature of the road, for instance. Without appropriate banking or superelevation, an
overspeeding vehicle will likely run out of highway due to the centrifugal force that pulls it away
from the road. Another is the sight distance available to the drivers. The driver must be able to
see ahead in order to brake safely before hitting an object on its path. Or when negotiating an
overtaking maneuver, a driver must be able to pass a slow-moving vehicle on the opposite
direction. When driving at night, the headlight beam can only reach up to a certain distance. The
vertical and horizontal curves must be designed so as not to cause undue reduction in speed of
vehicles.
Development (IBRD) provides guidelines on the use of appropriate design speed for various
terrain and traffic volume. Table 6.1 shows this guideline.
Table 6.1
Design speed for various road classes and terrain conditions
Whenever possible, a certain design speed must be maintained all throughout the
highway. However, if terrain condition or some obstructions would not allow it, the design speed
may be reduced by 10-20 kph at adjacent sections.
Figure 6.1
Stopping sight distance
6: GEOMETRIC DESIGN OG HIGHWAYS
(6.1)
b. d2, distance required for stopping after brakes are applied. Short distance is required
when negotiating an uphill. This is taken care of by the sign of the gradient G.
(6.2)
where v – running speed, kph
t – reaction time, sec
g – 9.8 m/sec2
f – Coefficient of friction (0.29-0.40)
G – gradient (+ for uphill; - for downhill)
Minimum stopping sight distance is normally computed for wet pavement condition.
Table 6.2 serves as guide for computation of SSD for different design speeds. For design speeds
greater than or equal to 80 kph, the running speed is taken as 85 percent of the design speed. For
design speeds less than or equal to 30 kph, full value of design speed is assumed for running
speed.
Table 6.2
SSD and f-values for different design speeds
6: GEOMETRIC DESIGN OG HIGHWAYS
Figure 6.2
Passing or overtaking maneuver
(6.3)
b. d2, distance travelled while overtaking vehicle occupies any part of the left lane
(opposing lane)
(6.4)
c. d3, distance between the passing vehicle at the end of its maneuver and the opposing
vehicle.
(6.5)
6: GEOMETRIC DESIGN OG HIGHWAYS
d. d4, distance traversed by an opposing vehicle for two-thirds of the time the passing
vehicle occupies the left lane
(6.6)
In many cases, it is very difficult to meet the full PSD requirement. Table 6.3
shows the summary of PSD values for various design speeds. Minimum PSD is often taken as
the sum of . Comparing these values with SSD, the requirement for passing sight
distance is about two to three times that of SSD. While it is absolute to provide SSD all the time,
it will be very expensive to provide PSD all the time as this would mean very gentle horizontal
and vertical curves. In practice, PSD should be provided in long sections of roads so that drivers
will have the opportunity to overtake one-third of the time.
Table 6.3
Passing sight distance values for different design speeds
designer from providing gentle curves. It is therefore necessary to determine the minimum radius
of curvature that may be required for any given desired speed.
Figure 6.3
Vehicle negotiating a curve and forces acting on it
Considering all the forces acting on the vehicle when negotiating a horizontal curve
(figure 6.3), it can be shown that the required minimum radius of curvature is given by
(6.7)
where v – design speed, kph,
e – superelevation
f – side friction
Table 6.4 provides the values of f for different design speeds. Values may be interpolated
depending on the design sped used.
Table 6.4
Values of side friction f
6: GEOMETRIC DESIGN OG HIGHWAYS
6.3.4 Superelevation
Banking or superelevation is necessary to counteract the centrifugal force that is acting
on the vehicle. The value of maximum superelevation e may range from 6 percent to 12 percent.
Depending on the terrain of the area where the highways will traverse, superelevation can
be attained by any of the following methods (figure 6.4):
Figure 6.5
The 30th hourly volume
Normally, highways do not have balanced flow in both directions during peak hours. One
direction is usually heavier than the other. It is therefore necessary to consider the direction of
heavier flow for design. The directional distribution D, is defined as the percentage of the
heavier volume over the total highway volume. This directional distribution is relevant only
when designing or analyzing highways with two or more lanes in one direction. For two-lane or
three-lane, two-way highways, the directional distribution are not considered. In the case of two-
lane, two-way highways, the heavier movement will tend to use the other direction for
overtaking. For three-lane, two-way highways, the heavier movement will tend to occupy the
extra third lane.
6: GEOMETRIC DESIGN OG HIGHWAYS
Table 6.5a
Basic capacities for highways and urban streets
For multilane highways in flat terrain, such as expressways, the lane capacities (if lane
width is at least 3.5 m) are estimated as follows:
Table 6.5b
Basic capacity for multilane highways
Example 6.1
A proposed highway is to be designed with adequate shoulder and clearance in a level
terrain with the following:
AADT = 40,000 pcu/day
D% = 65%
K = 9%
Estimate the number of lanes that will provide LOS B.
6: GEOMETRIC DESIGN OG HIGHWAYS
Solution:
It must be noted in the previous example that the design volume (AADT) is already given
in terms of pcu. If the traffic volume provided is in mixed type, passenger car equivalent factors
(PCEFs) have to be applied to obtain the volume pcu. The reader is advised to refer to the PHPM
for the details of these PCEFs. Also, the procedure discussed in the PHPM (which was used in
the previous example) is slightly different from the procedure in the US HCM. Both methods
have capacities in pcu but in the PHPM, the design volume in mixed vehicles is converted to pcu
for the calculation of v/c ration while in the US HCM, mixed vehicles are retained but the value
of capacity is modified or converted to mixed vehicles by applying reduction factor due to heavy
vehicles. The v/c ratio, therefore, is computed based on volume and capacity having the same
unit of mixed vehicles.
Sharpness of curve
The so-called sharpness of curve can be expressed by using two measurements:
a. Radius, R
b. Degree of curvature, D°
Furthermore, two definitions are used. The arc definition is the one being followed in
highway practice while the chord definition is used for railroad practice. Figure 6.6 shows the
relations of R and D° for both definitions.
Figure 6.6
Arc chord definitions
Stationing
In metric system, the length l used is 20 m for both arc and chord definitions. In English
system, the length l used is 100 ft for both arc and chord definitions.
Example 6.2
Rewrite the following in station notations:
a. Stake located 10,682.325 m from beginning
b. Stake located 2,345.21 ft from beginning
Solution:
6: GEOMETRIC DESIGN OG HIGHWAYS
Simple curve
Simple curve is defined as a circular arc between two tangents (figure 6.7).
Figure 6.7
The simple curve
Example 6.3
Bushes grow near a two-lane highway circular curve with R = 160 m (measured from
centreline of the highway). Minimum stopping sight distance is 150 m. Total width of pavement
is 7.0 m. How near from the edge of the pavement can you allow the bushes to grow?
Solution:
6: GEOMETRIC DESIGN OG HIGHWAYS
Computations of stationing:
The stationing of PC can be obtained by working backward; i.e., after obtaining the
tangent distance T, it is deducted from the stationing of PI:
Sta. PC = Sta. PI – T (6.12)
The stationing of PT can be obtained by adding the length of curve L to the value of Sta.
PC, or
Sta. PT = Sta. PC + L (6.13)
Figure 6.8
The compound curve
The elements of a compound curve can be computed depending on the given information.
If Sta. PI, Δ1, Δ2, R1 and R2, are known, then the solution will be the same as that of two simple
6: GEOMETRIC DESIGN OG HIGHWAYS
curves. The compound curve has seven important parts: T1, T2, Δ1, Δ2, R1, R2 and Δ. However, Δ
= Δ1 + Δ2; therefore there are only six independent variables; four lengths and two angles. For
rigid solution, four parts must be known, including at least one angle and at least two lengths.
Figure 6.9
Reverse curve with parallel tangents
Example 6.4
Find the flattest common-radius reverse curve (equal radii) that can be inserted between
parallel tangents 25 m apart without the distance AD exceeding 250 m.
6: GEOMETRIC DESIGN OG HIGHWAYS
Solution:
The other type of reverse curve is the case of nonparallel tangents as shown in figure
6.10. The solution is similar to that of compound curves.
Figure 6.10
Reverse curve with nonparallel tangents
6: GEOMETRIC DESIGN OG HIGHWAYS
Figure 6.11
Broken back curve
Example 6.5
The broken back curve shown is to be replaced by a compound curve R2 = 1.8 R1.
Determine:
a. new values of radii
b. new values of tangents
Solution:
6: GEOMETRIC DESIGN OG HIGHWAYS
Figure 6.12
Clothoid or easement curve
One property of the clothoid is that its curvature increases in proportion to the length of
curve, or
1/R = kl or Rl = 1/k (6.14)
where R – radius of curve
l – length of curve
k – a constant
to be dimensionally correct, let A2 = 1/k (A is called the clothoid parameter).
From this property:
(6.15)
where ls is the length of clothoid and Rc is the radius of the circular curve.
Also,
(6.16)
6: GEOMETRIC DESIGN OG HIGHWAYS
Hence,
(6.17)
Integrating
(6.18)
For dx and dy:
(6.19)
(6.20)
(6.21)
(6.22)
Integrating:
(6.23)
(6.24)
6: GEOMETRIC DESIGN OG HIGHWAYS
and
(6.25)
(6.26)
Figure 6.13
Symmetrical clothoid
6: GEOMETRIC DESIGN OG HIGHWAYS
(6.27)
For good design, ls ≈ lc. Also, clothoid is necessary when ΔR > 0.2 m
Standard for the length of clothoid
1. Based on travel time (enough time for reaction)
(6.28)
2. Based on rate of change of acceleration, p:
therefore:
(6.29)
Equation 6.29 is also known as the Shortt’s formula.
6: GEOMETRIC DESIGN OG HIGHWAYS
Range of values of p:
p = 0.35 ~ 0.50 m/sec3 for expressways
p = 0.60 ~ 0.75 m/sec3 for rural and urban highways
3. Based on aesthetics
The longitudinal gradient of the superelevation runoff should not exceed 1/200.
Example 6.6
Given: design speed = 100 kph (f = 0.13)
p = 0.4 m/sec3
Sta. PI = 5 + 105.000
Road width = 14.0 m (4-lane, 2-way)
Normal crown = 1.5 %
Intersection angle = 27°
Design the section of highway.
Solution:
Assume e = 3.5%
6: GEOMETRIC DESIGN OG HIGHWAYS
The other elements of the symmetrical clothoid can be obtained from the set of formulas
given by equation 6.27.
6: GEOMETRIC DESIGN OG HIGHWAYS
Parabolic vertical curve has been used to design the profile of highways. It has properties
that make it easy for laying out the alignment of a roadway in the field.
(6.30)
where a, b, and c are constants.
The first derivative dy/dx is the change of grade. The second derivative gives the
rate of change of grade:
b) Tangents drawn from any two points on a vertical axis parabola always intersect midway
between the points of tangency.
6: GEOMETRIC DESIGN OG HIGHWAYS
c) Vertical offsets from a tangent to a parabola are proportional to the squares of the
distances from the point of tangency.
d) If a tangent to the parabola is drawn between the main tangents, the horizontal projection
of the intercept cut off on this new tangent by the main tangents is equal to one-half of
the horizontal projection of the long chord of the parabola.
Figure 6.14
Types of vertical curves
6: GEOMETRIC DESIGN OG HIGHWAYS
(6.31)
Figure 6.15
Elements of vertical curve
Example 6.7
Given: Sta. VPI = 20 + 265.000; Elev. VPI = 40 m above sea level
G1 = 4.5%; G2 = -3.8%; L =250 m
Compute the station and elevation of the highest point on the crest vertical curve.
Solution:
Using equation 6.31:
6: GEOMETRIC DESIGN OG HIGHWAYS
Figure 6.16
Estimation of stopping sight distance
6: GEOMETRIC DESIGN OG HIGHWAYS
b. For PSD, h2 is taken as the height of the roof of the vehicle coming in the opposite
direction when the first vehicle initiates its overtaking maneuver.
Figure 6.17
Estimation of passing sight distance
(6.32)
Figure 6.18
Sight distance less than length of curve
6: GEOMETRIC DESIGN OG HIGHWAYS
b. The sight distance is longer than the required length of curve (figure 6.19).
(6.33)
Figure 6.19
Sight distance greater than length of curve
In sight distance formulas, A is used as a positive number (in decimals) equal to the
change in gradient from G1 to G2.
(6.34)
Figure 6.20
Sight distance shorter than the length of curve
6: GEOMETRIC DESIGN OG HIGHWAYS
b. Sight distance is longer than the required length of curve (figure 6.21)
(6.35)
Figure 6.21
Sight distance longer than length of curve
The determination of the required length of vertical curve may follow a trial-and-error
method. The designer may initially assume one consistent case. If the outcome of the
consumption using the specified equation is consistent with the assumption, the computed length
of curve is correct. Otherwise, if the outcome contradicts the assumed case, the other equation
must be used.
Example 6.8
Given: Design speed = 80 kph
G1 = 2%; G2 = -2%
Ss = 110 m
Sp = 550 m
Determine the length of vertical curve.
Solution:
6: GEOMETRIC DESIGN OG HIGHWAYS
Therefore, to satisfy SSD, the length of vertical curve must be at least 113.615 m.
The assumption is correct and the required length of curve is 1,205.179 m if PSD is to be
satisfied. This is more than ten times the required length for SSD. In actual design, it is almost
impossible to provide 100 percent PSD throughout the whole stretch of highway. Good design
would provide PSD at least one-third of the time.
6: GEOMETRIC DESIGN OG HIGHWAYS
PROBLEMS
1. Determine the number of lanes required to provide LOS B (v/c = 0.21 ~ 0.50) for the
following cases:
2. A two-lane, two-way highway has a volume-capacity ratio of 0.75 during peak hours. If
AADT is expected to increase at a growth rate of 1 percent per annum, when should the
highway operate as four-lane, two-way? Six-lane, two-way? Peak hour factor is 10
percent and directional distribution is 65 percent. (Hint: Improve the highway when
volume-capacity ratio reaches 0.90.)
3. A two-lane, two-way highway has an AADT of 18,000 pcu/day. The estimated traffic
growth is 4.5 percent per year. Determine the level of service at the end of 3, 5, 10 years.
Will the highway be adequate after 10 years? When should the highway operate as four-
lane, two-way? Six-lane, two-way? (Assume PHF = 8 percent and directional distribution
of 65 percent).
4. A horizontal curve on a two-lane highway is designed with a 610 m radius, 3.5 m lanes,
and 80 kph design speed. Determine the distance that must be cleared from the inside
edge of the inner lane to provide sufficient stopping sight distance. (Note: Curve radius is
typically reckoned from the centreline of the roadway, and driver location is assumed to
be at the middle of the travelled lane.)
5. A section of two-lane highway (7 m wide) on a horizontal curve as shown has a posted
speed limit of 80 kph.
6: GEOMETRIC DESIGN OG HIGHWAYS
A recent daytime accident involved a driver travelling along the inner lane and
striking a stationary object in his path. The accident resulted in a fatality and a lawsuit,
alleging that the posted 80 kph speed limit was unsafe for the curve in question. Evaluate
and comment on the road design (assuming that there is no problem with the vertical
alignment). Intersection angle, D = 80 degrees.
6. For the compound curve in figure 6.8, if Δ1, Δ2, T2 and R2 are known, find T1 and R1.
7. A reverse curve is to be inserted between parallel tangents 50 m apart with AD = 350 m,
and R2 = 1.5R1. Determine R1, R2 and Δ.
8. Derive equation 6.7 for the minimum radius of curvature.
9. Determine the length of tangent runout and length of runoff for a four-lane highway if the
pavement is revolved about the centreline in order to achieve fully superlevated cross
section.
Maximum allowable longitudinal gradient is 1/200.
Superlevation = 8%
Total carriageway width = 13 m (6.5 m per direction)
Normal crown = 1.5 %
10. Given: Design speed = 100 kph; emax = 6%; p = 0.5 m/sec2.
Sta. PI at 200 + 100.000 and Δ = 20 degrees
a. Determine the parameter A for the symmetrical clothoid.
b. Determine the stationing of TS, SC, CS and ST.
c. Draw 1/R from station TS to ST.
11. A section of a two-lane, two-way highway (2 @ 3.5 m) is to be designed with a circular
curve with transition (clothoid). The design requirements are the following:
Design speed = 60 kph
6: GEOMETRIC DESIGN OG HIGHWAYS
16. A 1.5 km straight tunnel is being constructed with work beginning at both ends.
Unfortunately, due to an engineering mistake, it will not meet at the center. This would
require a change in the vertical alignment (horizontal alignment is okay). The most
efficient vertical design will be use the horizontal distance in the profile view. Design the
connection using the highest common speed possible.
REFERENCES
American Association of State Highway and Transportation Officials. 1984. A policy on
geometric design of highways and streets. Washington D.C.
Hickerson, Thomas Felix. 1964. Route location and design. Fifth ed. McGraw-Hill Co.
Mannering, Fred L., and Walter P. Kilareski. 1990. Principles of highway engineering and
traffic analysis. New York. John Wiley and Sons.
Ministry of Public Highways 1979. Highway Design, BCEOM (Third IBRD Highway
Project-Technical Assistance Services), Manila.
Planning Service, Ministry of Public Works and Highways. 1982. The Philippine highway
planning manual. Vol. 2. Manila.
Transport Training Center. 1983. Course notes on transportation and traffic technology.
University of the Philippines.
Transportation Research Board. 2000. Highway capacity manual. National Research
Council.
Wright, Paul H., and Radnor J. Paquette. 1987. Highway engineering. New York: John Wiley
and Sons.
7: ROAD SAFETY AND TRAFFIC ACCIDENT ANALYSIS
7
ROAD SAFETY AND TRAFFIC ACCIDENT
ANALYSIS
7.1 INTRODUCTION
One undesirable reality that comes with development is the increase in traffic accidents
concomitant with increased motorization and infrastructure. Every year, worldwide, at least one
million people are killed on the road, 70 percent of whom are from countries classified by the
World Bank as low- or middle-income. This apparently worse scenario among developing
countries, like the Philippines, may be explained in that priorities are geared toward infrastructure
development, improving mobility, and addressing the need for a better public transportation
system. Conscious efforts to ensure road safety then take a back seat.
The state of road safety of a country or a region is normally gauged by the frequency of
accident occurrence. Key indicators are the number of accidents (fatal, injured, or property
damage) and the rates of accidents. For comparison studies, the rates are normally used instead of
the actual numbers.
Example 7.1
A town has a population of 350,000 in 2005. In the same year, the number of accidents was
620. Determine the accident rate.
7: ROAD SAFETY AND TRAFFIC ACCIDENT ANALYSIS
Solution:
Using equation 7.1,
620
𝐴𝐴𝑝𝑝 = 𝑥𝑥 100,000 = 177 𝑎𝑎𝑎𝑎𝑎𝑎𝑎𝑎𝑎𝑎𝑎𝑎𝑎𝑎𝑎𝑎𝑎𝑎 𝑝𝑝𝑝𝑝𝑝𝑝 100,000 𝑝𝑝𝑝𝑝𝑝𝑝𝑝𝑝𝑝𝑝𝑝𝑝𝑝𝑝𝑝𝑝𝑝𝑝𝑝𝑝
350,000
Example 7.2
The town in example 7.1 has 122,400 registered vehicles in 2005. Determine the accident
rate per registered vehicles.
Solution:
From equation 7.2,
𝑁𝑁 620
𝐴𝐴𝑉𝑉 = 𝑥𝑥 10,000 = 𝑥𝑥10,000 = 51 𝑎𝑎𝑎𝑎𝑎𝑎𝑎𝑎𝑎𝑎𝑎𝑎𝑎𝑎𝑎𝑎𝑎𝑎 𝑝𝑝𝑝𝑝𝑝𝑝 10,000 𝑣𝑣𝑣𝑣ℎ𝑖𝑖𝑖𝑖𝑖𝑖𝑖𝑖𝑖𝑖
𝑉𝑉 122,400
Example 7.3
Given the number of accidents, population, and number of registered number of vehicles
for each region in the Philippines, the accident rates are computed and shown in table 7.1. Most
number accidents (72.44 percent) occurred in the National Capital Region (NCR) or Metro Manila.
In terms of rate per population, Metro Manila still has the highest rate, followed on distant second
by Region 10 (Northern Mindanao). However, in terms of rate per registered vehicle, Region 10
has the highest, followed by Metro Manila. It is recognized that the level or accuracy of reporting
traffic accident varies from region to region.
7: ROAD SAFETY AND TRAFFIC ACCIDENT ANALYSIS
Table 7.1
Distribution of accidents by region
In Metro Manila, the Traffic Enforcement Unit is composed of three to five investigators
working round the clock by shifts. Each accident case has a corresponding investigator from each
reporting police station. It is a common practice for each investigator to be responsible for keeping
the records of cases he or she has investigated, regardless of the type of accident.
The TMG used to handle all cases of traffic accidents within Metro Manila, but when the
Traffic Enforcement Group (TEG) was formed, both groups became involved in reporting and
record keeping of traffic accidents. Although the TEG is supposed to be responsible for reporting
traffic accidents while TMG takes care of anticarnapping and antihijacking campaigns, the
functions of the two are still unclear as far as traffic accident reporting is concerned.
The hospitals are usually the first ones to get involved within traffic accident victims. The
police are then informed by a call from the hospital. At present, the practice of record keeping in
hospitals varies considerably. Most of the hospitals do this manually. The Department of Health
intends to promote an integrated hospital information system designed to computerized medical
records.
Several government projects on road safety are funded by international organizations. One
relevant project is the DPWH Sixth Road Project (CO8 Road Infrastructure Safety Project). One
of the outputs of this Asian Development Bank (ADB) funded project is the development of a
handbook on accident cost estimation and updating. Another ADV-funded project implemented
through the Metro Manila Development Authority and the Department of Environment and
Natural Resources (DENR), the “Metro Manila Air Quality Improvement Project”, has a major
component on road safety. It is interesting to note that both projects have developed traffic accident
database and analysis system. The Traffic Accident Reporting and Analysis System or TARAS is
housed at the DPWH. The TARAS is composed of computer software and associated procedures
for recording and analyzing road accidents in the Philippines. On the other hand, the Metro Manila
Accident Reporting and Analysis System or MMARAS is the computer software being used by
the MMDA. The MMARAS is used for recording and analyzing road accidents in Metro Manila.
Although the proponents of the two projects may assert that is is best to have two separate systems
as they have different objectives to meet, in the end, what matters most is whether the two systems
can give the overall picture of traffic safety in the Philippines. In the case of the MMARAS, only
fatal and serious injury accidents are considered for reporting and analysis. This leaves the traffic
investigation reports on minor injury accidents and property-damage-only accidents on the shelves
7: ROAD SAFETY AND TRAFFIC ACCIDENT ANALYSIS
of the different police districts in Metro Manila. If integration of the two systems is not possible,
at the very least coordination of tasks between the two agencies concerned is absolutely necessary.
Figure 7.1
Growth of population, GDP, and vehicle registration
was also increasing at about 5.5 percent annually while the total number of vehicles was fast
increasing at the rate of 4.4 percent.
Given the growth rates in all the factors, which increase the potential for road accidents,
and based on the experience of most developing countries with similar trends, it is highly likely
that casualties on the road should also increase over the years. However, this increase is not
reflected in the reported road traffic accident statistics as collected and collated by the PNP. On
the country, the trend in road accident deaths appears to be decreasing as shown in figure 7.2.
Figure 7.2
Number of fatalities on the road as reported by the PNP and the health sector
7: ROAD SAFETY AND TRAFFIC ACCIDENT ANALYSIS
Everyone (including the PNP) recognizes the fact that because of the different agencies
involved and the different jurisdictions, there is a serious problem in underreporting of traffic
accidents by the police. An efficient road accident data system is simply not yet available in the
Philippines. Moreover, hospital records are not reconciled with those of the police. Figure 7.2
shows that within the same period, the estimates of deaths due to vehicular accidents based on
health statistics increased while police data indicated a decreasing trend. Up to 1998, the health
sector used to compile statistics on deaths attributed to road traffic accidents (data are available
for 1970, 1980, 1990, and 1998). In 2003, a UNICEF-funded study, entitled Philippine National
Injury Survey, was conducted. This study revealed the seriousness of underreporting of traffic
accidents in the country. Based on the study, about 9,000 fatalities could be attributed to road
traffic accidents in 2003. As a cause of injury morbidity, road traffic accidents ranked first among
other causes (fall, injured, struck by objects, burn, animal bites, etc.). In terms of mortality, the
leading cause was infectious diseases (49 percent), followed by noncommunicable diseases (17
percent) and injuries (11 percent). However, as far as mortalities due to injuries are concerned,
road traffic accident was the leading cause (20 percent), followed by gunshot (17 percent), stabbing
(14 percent), etc.
For the same year (2003), the police only reported about 900 fatalities. This problem of
underreporting is expected to be more serious for the other types of accidents, namely, injuries and
property-damage-only accidents.
Based on the study of traffic accident victims using 2001 hospital data for very young
people (below fifteen years old) were the most vulnerable age group (figure 7.3), representing 36
percent of the country’s total population. The number of fatalities for young people (fifteen to
thirty-nine years old) was also high, with more than 70 percent of them being male.
Figure 7.4 clearly shows that the most vulnerable road user group is the pedestrians. About
25 percent of the fatalities and 40 percent of the seriously injured pedestrians are less than fifteen
years old.
7: ROAD SAFETY AND TRAFFIC ACCIDENT ANALYSIS
Figure 7.3
Casualties by age group
Figure 7.4
Vulnerable user groups
Next to the pedestrian group, a growing concern is the motorcyclists. Over the last three
years, the number of motorcycles grew by 40 percent per annum.
Among the causes of traffic accidents, the police cited driver’s error, overspeeding, and
overtaking as the major causes (table 7.2).
7: ROAD SAFETY AND TRAFFIC ACCIDENT ANALYSIS
Table 7.2
Causes/nature of traffic accident (2003)
Figure 7.5
Distribution of accidents by location (2000)
7: ROAD SAFETY AND TRAFFIC ACCIDENT ANALYSIS
Table 7.3 shows the number of accidents involving fatalities in year 2000. Again the
intersections accounted for the biggest share at 36 percent.
Table 7.3
Fatal accidents by location (2000)
(7.3)
where N – total number of accidents in time T
T – time frame of analysis, year
V – AADT or annual average daily traffic
Example 7.4
The T-intersection has 1,746 collision incidents over the last three years. The annual daily
traffic is shown in the figure below.
7: ROAD SAFETY AND TRAFFIC ACCIDENT ANALYSIS
Solution:
100,000,000𝑥𝑥𝑥𝑥
𝐴𝐴𝑠𝑠 = (7.4)
365𝑥𝑥𝑥𝑥𝑥𝑥𝑥𝑥𝑥𝑥𝑥𝑥
where N – total number of accidents in time T
T – time frame of analysis, year
V – AADT or annual average daily traffic
L – length of section in km
7: ROAD SAFETY AND TRAFFIC ACCIDENT ANALYSIS
Example 7.5
A stretch of four-lane, two-way highway 5.0 km long has a traffic volume of 35,000
vehicles per day. If for the last three years, the total number of accidents recorded was 1,900,
determine the accident rate per 100 mvk.
Solution:
From equation 7.4
100,000,000𝑥𝑥𝑥𝑥 100,000,000𝑥𝑥1,900
𝐴𝐴𝑠𝑠 = =
365𝑥𝑥𝑥𝑥𝑥𝑥𝑥𝑥𝑥𝑥𝑥𝑥 365𝑥𝑥3𝑥𝑥35,000𝑥𝑥5
= 991.5 𝑎𝑎𝑎𝑎𝑎𝑎𝑎𝑎𝑎𝑎𝑎𝑎𝑎𝑎𝑎𝑎𝑎𝑎 𝑝𝑝𝑝𝑝𝑝𝑝 100 𝑚𝑚𝑚𝑚𝑚𝑚
Figure 7.6
Distribution of accidents by time of day (year 2000)
7: ROAD SAFETY AND TRAFFIC ACCIDENT ANALYSIS
Table 7.4 provides a guide on the appropriate values of K for a given level of confidence.
7: ROAD SAFETY AND TRAFFIC ACCIDENT ANALYSIS
Example 7.6
A highway section has an accident rate of 150 accidents per 100 mvk. If the mean accident
rate for all sections is 55 per 100 mvk, and the standard deviation is 26 per 100 mvk, should the
section under study be flagged as hazardous with 95 percent confidence?
Solution:
The section under study has to be flagged as hazardous at 95 percent level of confidence.
Example 7.7
A section of road has 55 accidents recorded in three years. For the same period, the
estimated vehicle travel on the section was 23 mvk. Considering only those sections having the
same characteristics as the section under study, the mean rate is 80 accidents per 100 mvk. Is the
section hazardous with 95 percent level of confidence?
Solution:
80
The mean accident rate 𝑌𝑌� is 100 = .80 accidents per mvk.
7.4.1 The Inter-agency Road Safety Committee and the National road Safety Committee
In response to the increasing concerns regarding road accidents nationwide and cognizant
of the need to coordinate efforts of concerned government agencies and the private sector, the
president of the Philippines issued Administrative Order 222 in May 1992, creating the Inter-
agency Road Safety Committee (IRSC). The committee was chaired by the secretary of Public
Works and Highways and composed of top officials of the Department of Transportation and
Communication (DOTC), Department of Education, Culture and Sports (DECS), Department of
National Defense (DND), Department of Health (DOH), Department of the Interior and Local
Government (DILG), and the Safety Organization of the Philippines Inc. (SOPI) as members.
Technical support and advice were provided to the IRSC by a technical working group (TWG),
composed of representatives of key planning and operation units of members’ agencies. Since
1996, the DOTC has been given the responsibility to coordinate all road safety activities in the
country and was assigned the chairmanship of the National Road Safety Committee (NRSC),
which in effect replaced the IRSC.
planning, monitoring and coordinating functions for services that have metrowide impact and
transcend political boundaries of the sixteen cities and one municipality of the National Capital
Region or Metro Manila. Specifically it is responsible for coordinating and regulating the
implementation of all programs and projects concerning traffic management. It is tasked to
administer a single ticketing system and fix, impose, and collect fines, and penalties for all kinds
of violations of traffic rules and regulations through its Traffic Operation Center.
The Department of Health, the principal health agency in the Philippines, is responsible for
ensuring every Filipino’s access to basic public health services through the provision of quality
health care and regulation of providers of health goods and services. Given the mandate, the DOH
is both a stakeholder in the health sector and a policy and regulatory body for health. As a major
player, the DOH is a technical resource, a catalyser for health policy, and a political sponsor and
advocate for health issues on behalf of the health sector.
The Department of Education (DepEd) is the primary government agency tasked to provide
the school—age population with basic education. It has been long proposed that traffic education
be included in the high school curriculum, but so far, a bill has yet to be discussed in the legislature.
The University of the Philippines National Center for Transportation Studies (UP NCTS)
plays a major role in human resource development in the field of transportation. The center
conducts training and research in the fields of transportation planning, traffic engineering, and
traffic management. A number of subjects related to road safety – road safety programs, accident
investigation, reporting, and analysis – are offered as part of the curriculum of the regular training
programs for the participants of traffic engineering course and traffic management for traffic law
enforcers course.
The Safety Organization of the Philippines Inc. (SOPI) is a private organization operated
by donations from private companies as well as from government agencies. The activities of SOPI
cover not only road safety but also the prevention of nay types of accidents. The month of May is
set by SOPI as the “Road Safety Month” during which it conducts road safety campaigns in
cooperation with private companies and government agencies. Aside from annual national meeting
on road safety, SOPI issues booklets and other materials for road safety education.
The Automobile Association Philippines (AAP), formerly the Philippine Motor
Association, is a private organization that has dedicated itself to the promotion of motoring and to
the service of the Philippine motorists for more than half a century. This organization also serves
7: ROAD SAFETY AND TRAFFIC ACCIDENT ANALYSIS
the needs of Philippine motorists worldwide through its affiliation with the two most distinguished
motoring federations in the world: the Alliance Internationale de Tourisme and the Federation
Internationale de l’Automobile. Members of the association can avail themselves of a number of
privileges, such as twenty-four-hour roadside free-towing services within Metro Manila,
discounted driving lessons, free motor vehicle registration service, twenty-four-hour ambulance
service at minimal cost, international driving permit, and accident investigation assistance.
In the smallest administrative unit, which is called the barangay, volunteers serve as traffic
aides. They assist the traffic police in controlling traffic at bottlenecks and in case of accident
occurrence.
Among the most recent initiatives that the government has introduced are the following:
7.5.1 Imposing a Motor Vehicle User’s Fee on Owners of All Types of Motor Vehicles (RA 8794,
2000)
Section 7 of RA 8794 provides, among others, that 7.5 percent of all monies collected under
this Act shall be allotted to and placed in the special road safety fund under the DPWH. Also under
the Act, a portion of the special funs shall be appointed to provincial and city governments in
accordance with the vehicle population and side of the road network under their respective
jurisdictions, and shall be used exclusively for maintenance of local roads, traffic management,
and road safety devices.
public utility jeepneys, only the driver and the passengers seated in seats facing forward are
required to wear seatbelts. In the case of public utility buses, only the driver and the passenger
seated immediately behind the driver, and the passengers seated immediately behind the door of
the bus are required to wear seatbelts.
7.5.4 Banning the Use of Cellular Phones and Handset Radios while Operating or Driving a Motor
Vehicle (RA 7924)
The se of cellular phones while driving has been banned within Metro Manila since March
1997 because of its potential hazards to motorists. Though still small in number, accidents that
were primarily attributed to using cellular phone while driving have occurred.
There is a need to stress the urgency of improving safety on our roads. The following
should be given priority in addressing the issue of safety:
7.6.1 Legislative
There seems to be a general consensus that majority of road accidents are attributed to
driver’s error. The government must not delay implementing stronger driver licensing control and
driver improvement programs, the first step in weeding out undesirables on the road. The licensing
system in the Philippine is to lax that one does not have to learn how to drive before getting a
driver’s license. Driver licensing requirements should be tied in with driver education.
7: ROAD SAFETY AND TRAFFIC ACCIDENT ANALYSIS
There is an urgent need to reconvene the National Road Safety Committee, which has not
met for a long time. A more powerful national safety committee is necessary to formulate action
plans or develop agenda toward reduction of traffic accidents in the country.
Campaigns prohibiting street children, vendors and the like on the carriageway and
sidewalk cleaning of vendors must be continued.
Banning of dilapidated (road unworthy) vehicles on the road must be strictly enforced.
Overloading of passengers must be strictly prohibited.
The road right of way must be assigned for carriageway of the road users, paths for
pedestrians, for installation of appropriate traffic control devices, etc. No commercial
advertisements should be mounted or installed within the road’s right of way as they compete for
driver’s attention.
7.6.2 Institutional
Availability of reliable data on accidents is key to understanding how the transportation
system works. However, without a systematic method of accident data collection, processing, and
analysis, the overall picture of road safety in the Philippines remains obscure. The seemingly rosy
picture depicted by statistics must not make us complacent as these cannot simply cover up for the
failure of our transportation system comprising the road, the driver, and the vehicle. There must
be a wholehearted commitment to improve traffic accident investigation, reporting, and analysis.
While computer databases, on traffic accidents have been developed at the DPWH and the MMDA,
integration of the two is necessary to establish an integrated accident database incorporating police
and hospital reports. Figure 7.8 shows the structure of the proposed integrated traffic accident data
management system. This is possible only if there is a very strong linkage between the police and
the hospitals. This may be achieved by undertaking a memorandum of agreement between the DIG
and the DOH.
Sustainability of the on-going efforts in maintaining the accident databases has to be
strongly considered.
7: ROAD SAFETY AND TRAFFIC ACCIDENT ANALYSIS
7.6.3 Technical
As to the road environment, whatever changes in control or geometric improvements
applied to intersections or roadways bring about significant change in accident occurrence and
accident rates. Caution is therefore advised when conducting test runs or experiments without prior
careful analysis. A trial-and-error method of solving traffic problem must be avoided.
Since many accidents occur during night time, efforts must be exerted to improve visibility
at night. Placement of appropriate traffic control devices (warning devices, delineators, reflectors,
etc.) at hazardous locations can help minimized accidents. Figure 7.9 shows a section of the NLEX
installed with traffic control devices.
7: ROAD SAFETY AND TRAFFIC ACCIDENT ANALYSIS
Improved uniform warning traffic signs and marking devices on all roads must be applied;
rules must be written in a concise, readable way and placed in prominent spots.
Along highways, guardrails and median barriers keep vehicle from straying (in most cases
unintentionally) into dangerous or off-limit areas. Figure 7.10 shows an example of W-beam
guardrail and the New Jersey median barrier. Guardrails must be used to prevent vehicles from
veering off a road into oncoming traffic, crashing against solid objects (like a bridge pillar), or
falling into a ravine. Guardrails and medians also keep the vehicle upright while it is deflected
along the barrier.
7: ROAD SAFETY AND TRAFFIC ACCIDENT ANALYSIS
Some of the traffic calming measures may be adopted to improve safety for pedestrians
and bicyclists as well as improve the environment for residents. Calming measures are now very
common in Europe and in North America. According to the Institute of Transportation Engineers’
definition, traffic calming is a set of street designs and traffic rules that slow and reduce traffic
while encouraging walkers and cyclists to share the street. Behind traffic calming is the belief that
streets are valuable public spaces that should be shared equally by all users. Traffic calming
devices are simple, inexpensive, self-enforcing, and easily modified to accommodate emergency
vehicles, garbage trucks, and buses. Traffic calming has been widely used to reduce traffic
accidents, increase the safety and convenience for pedestrians and other non-motorists, give more
space for children to play, eliminate noise and pollution, improve scenery, provide neighbourhood
revitalization and stability, and reduce crime.
There have been a number of calming measures implemented successfully, some of which
are as follows:
a. Raising the surface of the street in certain spots – for example by installing speed humps
(figure 7.11)
7: ROAD SAFETY AND TRAFFIC ACCIDENT ANALYSIS
b. Adding fixtures around which motorists must drive – such as landscaped islands or
small roundabout in the middle of intersections (figure 7.12)
c. Narrowing the street, to give drivers the feeling that they’re in a crowded place, which
helps make them slow down
d. Totally or partially closing a street – for example, by blocking half the entrance to a
size street to so drivers cannot turn in, but can still come out
Research on the area of traffic safety has not been given a full attention here in the country.
But several questions need to be answered in order to develop a better traffic safety program:
Where are the high accident locations? How many were killed and injured last year? Where?
When? How?
Some of the more urgent topics for research are as follows:
a. Real causes of motor vehicle accidents, as differentiated from circumstantial factors
b. Driver behavior and accidents (speeding, inattention, ignoring traffic control devices,
drunk driving, driving on drugs, failure to “buckle up”, etc.)
c. Relation of specific road and vehicle design elements to highway safety
d. Monotony and fatigue problems in expressway driving or in a long-distance driving.
e. Developing improved means of communication from the highway to the individual
user and between drivers.
f. Estimation of cost of traffic accidents.
7: ROAD SAFETY AND TRAFFIC ACCIDENT ANALYSIS
7.6.5 Sociocultural
It is a familiar saying that anyone who can drive in the Philippines can drive anywhere in
the world. It means experiencing driving on Philippine roads is like going through the most
challenging driving situations. The prevalent mentality of “pwede na ‘yan” a mindset of mediocrity
and getting one’s way out of trouble, makes rules and regulations practically useless. It is a s if
chaos is a better or more acceptable stable to be than having some order to things. Commuters
wish to get off at any point at their whim and fancy, and drivers of public utility vehicles give in.
7: ROAD SAFETY AND TRAFFIC ACCIDENT ANALYSIS
Drivers themselves pick up passengers at any point even if it means blocking a whole trail of
vehicles behind them. They do not observe the right of way but have their own habit of “ngusuan”
– that of sticking out their vehicle first so as to get ahead first. The culture of corruption penetrates
all sectors of society, not to exclude traffic matters. Due to bribes or under-the-table transactions,
there are licensed drivers who are underage, illiterate, drug addicts, don’t understand road rules or
traffic signs, drive even when drunk, have bad tempers, and use their guns at the slightest road
quarrel or irritation.
The present world scenario depicts that traffic accidents claim approximately two human
lives every minute. Besides causing prime loss in terms of human lives, these occurrences also
bring about tremendous amount of wastage in terms of finances, property, time, resources, and
services. Medical efforts alone geared toward the treatment and needed rehabilitation of accident
victims are obviously huge and tedious. Investigation and litigation processes involved can also
be very taxing not only financially but also emotionally for the bereaved and grieving family. A
great amount of labor resources is likewise lost as manpower is reduced due to absence form work
for treatment or for processing insurance claims, absence due to injuries with disabilities, and
actual loss of human assets due to deaths. In the Philippine setting, just a single traffic accident
can be peculiarly costly as it has a potential to cause heavy traffic jams due to too much delay in
the investigation and rescue processes. This in turn causes additional losses for all the other people
affected.
While the problem of road safety is improving in developed countries, the situation seems
to be getting worse in developing ones where priority is more focused on providing transportation
infrastructure geared toward improving mobility of people (Sigua 2000). The very high growth
rate of vehicles in developing countries has compounded the problem of road safety. In the past
ten years, the volume of vehicles in the Philippines has more than doubles (1.88 million in 1992
and 4.19 million in 2002). Once merely a status symbol, owning a car has become a necessity due
to inadequacy of public transportation services and has contributed to the deterioration of the
environment through pollution. The lack of driver education and weak enforcement exacerbate the
7: ROAD SAFETY AND TRAFFIC ACCIDENT ANALYSIS
situation. Overspeeding and complete disregard for and lax implementation of traffic rules and
regulations have contributed to the rise of casualties on the road.
Life is considered most sacred, and there seems to be a strong disagreement whether to put
a monetary value on it or not. Some people are uncomfortable or emotionally very reluctant to
assess traffic accidents involving human lives in terms of money. For while properties and financed
may be restored, human lives lost cannot. Putting a monetary value to human life or to a fatal
accident may be a topic for heated debate but the same lack of cost estimates leaves many,
including the decision makers, still groping in the dark.
But if it would create awareness of the worsening road safety situation in our country alone,
an estimation of the losses attributed to traffic accidents is very well justified. Like the growing
concern for the environment, it is high time that the government takes action in promoting safety
on the road. If realistic estimates of the cost of losses can be made, there is no reason why the
government cannot take action in reducing it. The estimate must truly reflect the actual worsening
condition of our roads as far as safety is concerned. While it is recognized that data gaps exist,
reasonable assumptions must be made as an initial attempt. Improvement of the estimate can be
done in the future as data become readily available and collection efforts improve.
b. By avoiding accidents and their social costs, resources can be saved, which otherwise
would be devoted to the relief of accident consequences.
The first point includes the avoidance of production losses due to the incapacity of accident
victims, damage to capital goods, and traffic congestion resulting from accidents.
The second point includes the avoidance of the following costs: medical treatment of
persons involved in accidents, repair of property damage, police investigation, legal and court
procedures, and insurance administration. The resources saved can be used elsewhere to increase
welfare.
These methods are documented by Alfaro, Chapuis, and Fabre (1994); Jacobs (1995); and
Babtie Ross Silcokc and TRL (2003).
The life insurance method measures the valuation of risk associated with road usage and is
determined by the premiums that he driver population is willing to pay. On the other hand, the curt
award method is based on the actual compensation settlements awarded, which may be influenced
by the degree of negligence found. In the implicit public sector valuation method, a set of implicit
values is used to value human lives.
However, most of these estimation methods have been generally discredited (Babtie Ross
Silcock and TRL 2003). To date, the two commonly accepted methods to estimate the economic
cost of accidents are as follows:
7: ROAD SAFETY AND TRAFFIC ACCIDENT ANALYSIS
a. Gross output or human capital method. This approach focuses on the economic
consequences of a road accident, and usually also includes a notional sum that reflects
the pain, grief, and suffering incurred by the persons involved and their family. It is
based on the idea that the value to society of avoiding a death or injury is related to the
potentially lost economic output and resources.
b. Willingness-to-pay method. This is based on the amount that a person is willing to pay
to avid an accident. This is a very subjective measure that reflects individual
preferences, values, and perceptions of risk. It is extremely difficult to reliably estimate
and will vary significantly from person to person and from place to place.
The willingness-to-pay method has become the preferred costing method in many
developed countries as it has been recognized as the best way to measure the costing of accidents
for the purpose of benefit-cost analysis. Recognizing the difficulty of implementing this method
in developing countries due to its data requirements (the method relies on the completion of a
complex questionnaire), the ADB publication Road Safety Guidelines for the Asian and Pacific
Region recommends the gross output method. The guideline considers is as the appropriate method
to be used in developing countries because it relates more closely to direct economic impacts and
the practical measurable consequences of road accidents. That is the approach used in this cost
estimation, and the detailed methodology for dealing with data gaps, underreporting, etc. is in line
with the guidance document provided to the author by the ADB
Lost output
Lost output is generally considered as the largest resource cost incurred due to a traffic
accident. It is an expression of the loss to society of the productive manpower, be it permanent or
temporary. Its value varies widely, ranging from a one day lost time for minor injury incident, to
long years of foregone work for those killed or permanently disabled.
Although considerable parts of the medical expenses are paid only to those who provide
such medical services, they may still be regarded as losses to the economy because such services
would have been otherwise provided elsewhere if the traffic accidents had not occurred. The same
applies to the repair charges of damaged vehicles and legal fees.
Property damage
Property damage necessitates or replacement costs of vehicles, goods, and road
accessories. In addition, property damage can result in further welfare losses when capital goods
(e.g., trucks, cars for commercial use, equipment, etc.) are damaged or destroyed and their
productive services are lost. When private passenger cars are damaged, additional welfare losses
may result from the loss of use.
For the determination of property-damage-only involvement costs, insurance records can
be used and the compensation taken as indicator of social losses. Account has to be taken of the
fact that insurance companies generally pay compensation for liability cases only, and are liable
for accidents brought on by one’s own fault only to the extent of a contracted limit. In addition, it
should be noted that there may be considerable difference between the cases recorded by the
insurance companies and the police records.
7: ROAD SAFETY AND TRAFFIC ACCIDENT ANALYSIS
With respect to property losses, evaluation is relatively easy because the market prices and
repair charges for the property lost or damaged can be regarded as a good expression of the
objective values.
Administrative costs
The police are called out to the sites of traffic accidents to control traffic and investigate
and record the accidents. Total work hours required for handling traffic accidents have to be
considered. A patrol car is dispatched to each traffic accident site to control traffic and deal with
the accident. Since the patrol car is also used for other purposes, half of its total expenses will be
taken up in connection with traffic accidents. In addition, the police headquarters uses cameras for
photographing accident sites. Some of the other components of administrative costs are judicial
costs and insurance administrative costs. The functions of the court dealing with traffic accidents
include (a) civil suits for damages, (b) civil mediation, (c) criminal suits for negligence, and (d)
summary criminal procedures. Most of the damage caused by traffic accidents is covered by
insurance, and the operating expenses required to support this system also constitute part of the
costs and expenses incidental to traffic accidents.
Figure 7.14 provides a summary of the different cost components that may be involved in
each accident, depending on the type of severity:
7: ROAD SAFETY AND TRAFFIC ACCIDENT ANALYSIS
Based on the diagram, a fatal accident would incur loss of productive life of the victim:
pain, grief, and suffering of loved ones left; medical expense when the victim was brought to the
hospital before dying; a number of miscellaneous expenses that would constitute administrative
costs; and cost of a totally wrecked vehicle or cost of repair of a damaged vehicle. Similar cost
components may be incurred when a victim becomes permanently disabled due to a serious injury
accident. A minor injury accident would still incur some medical costs and require some paper
work, and, possibly, minor repair of a slightly damaged vehicle.
Other assumptions
A range of assumptions underlie the recommended methodology. The major additional
assumption is that all accident are costed out as though all steps were taken to restore people,
vehicles, and property as closely as possible to their condition prior to the accident. It means that:
• injured persons receive full medical treatment, are treated in a hospital if seriously injured,
and recuperate for the recommended period;
• injured persons are considered to be employed (or potentially employable);
• vehicles are repaired according to manufacturer’s specifications; and
• an accident report is made, all the proper paperwork is completed, and insurance claims
are filed and recorded accurately.
Underlying assumptions
The gross output method requires input to a number of variables incorporated in each cost
component. Some of these variables require estimation from available secondary data. However,
some variables cannot estimation unless comprehensive primary data collection is conducted. In
this case, assumptions based on the experience of other countries are made. Nevertheless,
estimation of the cost of accidents has to be updated on a regular basis. At this point, it is very
important to determine those on variables that have deficiency in data availability. Determination
of these variables can then be incorporated in the research agenda on mad safety. The National
Center for Transportation Studies of the University of the Philippines has actually initiated the
formulation of research agenda as far as traffic safety is concerned. One notable research on traffic
analysis focusing on hospital records (Vibal 2003) proved to be very valuable in determining the
extent of severity of human damage attributed to road crashes.
Damage to property
Damage to property can be obtained from insurance companies based on property damage
claims for motor vehicle accidents. Property damage costs can vary considerably depending on the
degree of wreckage sustained. It may therefore be necessary to obtain estimates based on accidents
stratified according to severity.
As previously mentioned, the repair costs are calculated as if all vehicles are repaired
according to manufacturer's specifications, since represents the resource cost to the community of
vehicle damage. Information on average claims was supplied by the Insurance Sure the Philippines
(ISAR) on a confidential basis. The average claim was converted to 2003 figures, and allowance
was then added for total wrecks, owners cost input and towing. In general, vehicles involved in
7: ROAD SAFETY AND TRAFFIC ACCIDENT ANALYSIS
fatal serious injury accidents will be damaged more severely than ears accidents in which nobody
is injured. No data are currently available the relative cost of damage by injury severity.
International experience indicates that the relative repair cost of accident types compared average
cost is as follows:
Fatal accident 1.55 times average cost
Serious injury 1.40 times average cost
Minor Injury 1.25 times average cost
Damage-only 0.85 times average cost
These translate to
P46,500 per vehicle for a fatal accident
P42,000 per vehicle for a serious injury accident
P37,500 per vehicle for minor injury accident
P25,500 per vehicle for a damage-only accident
Administrative costs
The cost is composed of several components as there are many agencies administering
services related to the accident—traffic police, emergency response services, insurance, and legal
services. It is therefore, very difficult to compute this cost. This is compounded by the problems
of underreporting and the lack or complexity of administrative linkages. The ADB guideline is
followed in estimating the administrative cost. The ADB recommends that the administrative cost
be taken as a percentage of total resource costs (sum of lost output, medical and property damage
cost).
Similar to property damage, the administrative costs associated with an accident are likely
to depend on its severity. In a more serious accident, vehicles may remain on the road longer, and
more policemen may be assigned to direct traffic. There is also the longer and more complicated
process of investigation, claims and follow-ups, and possibly legal proceeding.
The ADB recommends the following:
Fatal accident 0.2% of total fatal accident resource cost
Serious injury 4% of total serious injury resource cost
Minor injury 14% of total minor injury resource cost
Damage-only 10% of total damage-only resource cost
7: ROAD SAFETY AND TRAFFIC ACCIDENT ANALYSIS
Medical costs
Medical costs vary widely depending on the severity of the injury. Serious injury could
mean long hospitalization and rehabilitation.
a. Serious injury
i. Stay in the hospital
In a recent study of traffic accidents using hospital records (Vibal 2003), victims' hospital
stay depending on the severity of injury is as follows: six to eight days and seventeen days for
typical and more severe pedestrian accidents, respectively; five to six days for typical motorcycle
accident and nineteen days for more severe motorcycle cases. For the purpose of this study, an
average of eight days of stay will be used for estimating cost.
During this eight-day period of stay in the hospital, it is necessary to take into consideration
the amount incurred due to hospital care. Based on the rates in a tertiary hospital with daily visits
by a general practitioner, two visits by a specialist, drugs and medicine, and one episode of minor
surgery plus an allowance for the cost of ambulance transfer to the hospital, total cost of hospital
care is estimated at P4,000 per day. This amount Paid in full by the patient without subsidy from
the government.
b. Minor injury
In the case of minor injuries, two visits to a doctor can be reasonably assumed; the first
visit is for initial assessment of the injury while the second is for follow-up.
Costs incurred during each visit may be as follows: P250 for consulting services and
another P250 fur medication, bandages, etc. Say, P500 per consultation.
7: ROAD SAFETY AND TRAFFIC ACCIDENT ANALYSIS
c. Permanent disability
When a seriously injured person becomes permanently disabled, the cost will include
medical expenses, special equipment (wheelchair or special bed), and employing a nurse. In case
a family member acts as caregiver, the cost also includes lost income due to his or her absence
from work. In the absence of data on long-term care, about P100 per day is assumed to cover the
costs of long-term care for the permanently disabled.
Based on limited records so far inputted to TARAS of the DPV/H, the following
information was obtained. (It is recognized that when more data are collected, better estimates can
be obtained.)
Average number of vehicles involved in each accident type:
1.4 vehicles per fatal accident
1.5 vehicles per serious injury accident
1.5 vehicles per minor injury accident
1.8 vehicles per property damage accident
In this section, computation of average cost for each type of accidents will be shown. The
estimates are based on values of the different variables explained in the previous chapter (Cost
Components) and follow the calculation procedure given on table 7.6.
7: ROAD SAFETY AND TRAFFIC ACCIDENT ANALYSIS
Once the average cost of each type of accident is obtained, the total cost of accidents may
be estimated by multiplying the total number of accidents of each type by the average cost. Again,
the types the analysis are as follows:
a. Fatal accident
b. Serious injury accident
c. Minor injury accident
d. Property-damage-only accident
whole country. It is generally accepted that there is a serious problem in the reporting of accidents
because of the following reasons:
a. Although the Philippines recognizes the UN Organization's definition of traffic death—
one that occurs within thirty days of the event—our count is still based on "death at
scene." Even though most countries still use different definitions, their accident
statistics are adjusted by applying correction factors to conform to the standard
definition. Our current system of accident data keeping makes statistical adjustment
almost impossible to do.
b. A major cause of the underestimating of traffic accident statistics in the Philippines is
the lack of an effective means of updating fatality and injury data. At present, the
country has yet to develop a system of transferring records from hospitals to the TMG
c. Recording and updating are prone to errors as done manually. There are also cases of
records getting lost or of misplaced.
Even the PNP itself acknowledges that there is a serious problem of underreporting of
traffic accidents. Aside from the absence of an efficient road accident data system, there is a great
discrepancy between hospital and police records. Figure 7.15 shows the official statistics from the
health sector. Deaths attributed to traffic accidents in 1970, 1980, 1990, and 1998 are available
from the Philippine Health Statistics. In the 2003, Philippine National Injury Survey funded by the
UNICEF, approximately 9,000 fatalities were attributed to road traffic accidents, a tremendous
7: ROAD SAFETY AND TRAFFIC ACCIDENT ANALYSIS
increase from the 1998 of 3,800. For the year 2002, the police, in contrast, reported only 801
fatalities, clearly show a very serious problem of underreporting.
The situation of underreporting for injury cases is far worse than that for fatal cases. A
number of previous studies have highlighted the relationship between the number of crash deaths
and injuries. Barrs et. al. (1998) quoted a generic ratio of 10:25 injuries to deaths (with half
requiring hospitalization), but the only developing country example Included was from an urban
hospital study in Ethiopia, which reported sixteen injuries for every death (Dessie and Lawson
1991). A three-month study conducted by Malaysia's Public Health Department (Rahman 2002)
reported 19,271 casualties receiving treatment at hospitals. Of these, 1.3 Percent were fatal and 79
percent received outpatient treatment. Thus for every road death, there were fifteen hospitalized
and another sixty-one slightly injured.
Underreporting was believed to be much greater for injuries than deaths (Jacobs,
Aeron-Thomas, and Astrop 2000). To estimate global road casualties, the study adopted a ratio of
100 injuries to a fatality for high-income countries, while a conservative road death to injury ratio
of 20:30 was used for low-income countries. In the first Safe Community Conference on Cost
Calculation and Cost-Effectiveness in Injury Prevention and Safety Promotion, a ratio of 70 slight
injuries and 15 serious injuries to every death was suggested to apply to most countries (Barrs et
al. 1998).
In the case of the Philippines, three major hospitals having the highest number of in-
patients with traffic accident-related cases were studied (Vibal 2003). The study primarily focused
on fatal and serious injury cases only. Out of the 1,242 cases (with 94 unspecified cases), 67 (5.4
percent) were fatal cases and 1,081 (87 percent) were serious injury. cases. This gives a serious
injury to death ratio of 16:1, which is consistent with the results of the previous studies mentioned
above. In the absence of data on slight injury cases, a ratio of 70:1 will be adopted.
It is far more complicated to estimate the number of property damage-only accidents
because such cases are even more underreported. In the absence of data on this, the estimation of
the number of this type of accident will be based on the ADB guideline of five damage-only
accidents for each injury accident. Again, as data collection efforts improve, a local value for the
Philippines may be estimated more accurately.
In preparation for the estimation of national cost of accidents, it is necessary to determine
the numbers of accidents by type since the individual costs are estimated using that same unit.
7: ROAD SAFETY AND TRAFFIC ACCIDENT ANALYSIS
Based on the TMG’s statistics of recorded traffic accidents for the year 2002, the breakdown for
each type is shown in table 7.12.
Applying the corrections attributed to underreporting and the other assumptions adopted in
the previous section, the number of accidents is adjusted (table 7.13).
Without any corrections to the accident statistics collected by the responsible agency, the
cost of traffic accidents is about P2.5 billion or US$ 45 million each year. However, this is a gross
underestimation as it has been shown that there is too much underreporting of accidents. The
estimate cost based on the health sector data amounting to P105 billion (or US$ 1.9 billion) may
still be on the low end because many cost components were not accounted for during the
application of the gross output method. But this cost is already about 2.6 percent of the Philippines’
GDP. A better estimate of the cost is expected when more accurate statistics are made available
due to improved data collection system.
PROBLEMS
1. In planning for highway improvements in a particular region, the traffic accidents have to
be analyzed to give priority to those hazardous or accident-prone locations. The table below
shows the twenty sections considered for analysis. Sections marked with an asterisk (*)
have almost similar characteristics in terms of physical and traffic conditions. Among these
marked sections, which would you consider hazardous at 95 percent level of confidence?
Use
a. classic statistic method
b. rate quality control method
7: ROAD SAFETY AND TRAFFIC ACCIDENT ANALYSIS
2. The five-leg roundabout shown below was the scene of 850 accidents in 2004. The annual
average daily traffic is shown in the corresponding route OD table. Determine the accident
rate of the roundabout.
7: ROAD SAFETY AND TRAFFIC ACCIDENT ANALYSIS
3. The figure below shows the road network inside a town proper. According to accident
statistics over the last three years, the ten intersections having the highest number of
accidents are shown in the corresponding table. The total entering traffic for each
intersection is also shown. Identify the intersections that may be considered hazardous,
using 95 percent level of confidence.
4. The table below shows the average cost of traffic accident by type:
For a particular year, if the number of fatal victims (based on hospital data) is 5,000,
estimate the total accident cost.
REFERENCES
Alfaro, J. M. Chapuis, and F. Fabre, eds. 1994. COST 313. Socioeconomic cost of road
accidents. Report EUR 15464 EN, Brussels, Commission of the European Communities.
Andreassen, D.C. 1988. The application of cost data in traffic safety- Traffic safety theory
and research methods. Netherlands, April.
Asian Development Bank (ADB). 1997. Road safety guidelines for Asian and Pacific
Region. Regional Initiatives in Road Safety, Asian Development Bank.
Babtie Ross Silcock and TRL Limited. 2003. Guidelines for estimating the cost road
crashes in developing countries. Final Report, Department for International Development
Project R7780, Transport Research Laboratory, May.
Barrs, P., G. Smith, S. Baker, and D. Mohan. 1998. Injury prevention: An international
perspective. Oxford University Press.
Department of Public Works and Highways (DPWH). 2003. Cost estimation and update
handbook. Sixth Road Project. Capacity Building component. C08 Road Infrastructure
Safety Project, DPWH.
Dessie, T.C. Lawson. 1991. The occurrence and driver characteristics associated with
motor vehicle injuries in Addis, Ababa, Ethiopia. Journal of Tropical Medicine Hygiene
94:395-400.
7: ROAD SAFETY AND TRAFFIC ACCIDENT ANALYSIS
Garber, Nicholas J., and Lester A. Hoel. 1999. Traffic and highway engineering. Second
ed. brooks/Cole Publishing Co,
International Road Traffic and Accident Database (IRTAD). 1998. Special report,
definitions and data availability. OECD-RTR Road Transport research Programme.
Jacobs, G. 1995. Costing road accidents in developing countries. Overseas Road Note 10.
Crowthorne, Berkshire: Transport Research Laboratory.
Jacobs G., A. Aeron-Thomas, A. Astrop. 2000. Estimating global road fatalities. TRL
Report 445, Transport Research Laboratory, Crowthorne, Berkshire.
Lamm, Ruediger, Basil Psarianos, and Theodor Mailaender. 1999. Highway design and
traffic safety engineering handbook. McGraw-Hill.
Melhuish, C. 2001. The first GRSP ASEAN Seminar, March, Tokyo.
National Epidemiology Center (NEC). 1998. Philippine health statistics. NEC, Department
of Health Philippines.
Organization for Economic Co-operation and Development. 1981. Methods for evaluating
road safely measures. OECD Road Research Group Report, June.
Pline, J. L., ed, 1992. Traffic engineering handbook. Fourth Ed. Washignton, D.C.: Insitiute
of Transportation Engineers and Prentice Hall Inc.
Robertson, H. Douglas, ed. 2000. Manual for transportation engineering studies.
Washington, D.C.: Institute of Transportation Engineers and Prentice-Hall Inc.
Sigua, R. 2000. The state of road safety in the Philippines. Journal on Public Policy.
Quezon City: UP Center for Integrative and Development Studies and the University of
the Philippines Press.
Tanner, J.C. 1956. Accidents before and after the provision or removal of automatic traffic
signals. RRL Note. No. 2887.
Traffic Management Group (TMG). 2002. Report of traffic accident statistics.
Trinca, G. W., Johnston, I., B. J. Campbell, F.A. Haight, P. Knight, M. Mackay, A. J.
McLean, and E. Petrucelli. 1988. Reducing traffic injury: A global challenge. Melbourne:
Royal Australasian College og Surgeons.
Vibal, T. 2003. Traffic accident analysis through hospital records. Master’s thesis, College
of Engineering, University of the Philippines Diliman, Quezon City.
8: INTRODUCTION TO TRAVEL DEMAND FORECASTING
8
INTRODUCTION TO TRAVEL DEMAND
FORECASTING
8.1 INTRODUCTION
This chapter introduces the classic four-step forecasting model which was developed more
than sixty years ago in the United States. The method has deficiencies, and other new ones have
been developed over the past ten years. However, the method is still widely used as a tool over
analyzing travel demand and estimating future traffic flow. Most commercially available software
for forecasting travel demand are still largely based on this four-step model. It provides a tool for
traffic engineers and planners to analyze travel demand and traffic situation in a given study area.
Prior to the application of the four-step model, it is always necessary to obtain as much
information as possible on the socioeconomic indicators of the area under study, such as
population, income distribution, car ownership, etc. Using statistical tools, these socioeconomic
variables may be forecasted within the planning horizon, which may vary from twenty to fifty
years.
Once the study are is defined, it is divided into a number of zones normally defined by
political or administrative boundaries. These are called internal zones. Depending on the coverage
of the study, a zone may correspond to one barangay, town, or city. The study may also consider
some zones outside the study area, which may greatly affect the trip patterns, These are called
external zones. For example, If Metro Manila is taken as a study area, there is a need to consider
the outlying areas of Cavite, Laguna, Rizal, and Bulacan, among others.
For a more systematic analysis and easier presentation, an origin-destination (OD) table is
generally prepared. The origin-destination table simply shows the trips from one zone to another
within a given study area. The terms are defined in reference to figure 8.2.
8: INTRODUCTION TO TRAVEL DEMAND FORECASTING
This is also referred to as trip generation. It is obtained by summing up all the entries in a
given row i.
The number of trips D j attracted to zone j is given by
𝑛𝑛
𝑛𝑛 𝑛𝑛
Sometimes the present trip production is estimated first before the trip generation and trip
attraction are analyzed. Trip production is estimated as follows:
𝑇𝑇 = 𝑓𝑓(𝑝𝑝𝑝𝑝𝑝𝑝𝑝𝑝𝑝𝑝𝑒𝑒 ′ 𝑠𝑠_𝑎𝑎𝑎𝑎𝑎𝑎𝑎𝑎𝑎𝑎𝑎𝑎𝑎𝑎𝑎𝑎, 𝑡𝑡𝑡𝑡𝑡𝑡𝑡𝑡_𝑝𝑝𝑝𝑝𝑝𝑝𝑝𝑝𝑝𝑝𝑝𝑝𝑝𝑝, … ) (8.4)
The independent variables inside the parenthesis must be selected to satisfy the following
requirements:
a. Predictability
Trips per day at cities in the world are fairly stable, which is about 2.5. Manila is about
2.3 trips per day while Davao City is about 2.4 trips per day.
A number of methods are available for estimating trip generation and attraction. The more
commonly used ones may fall under any of the following:
a. Growth rate method
b. Category analysis
c. Regression model
Number of cars/households
Family Size 1 2
No. of households No. of trips No. of households No. of trips
1 100 200 50 150
2 200 500 100 350
3 150 450 50 200
More than 3 50 200 10 70
From these data, the average trip generation rate per category can be estimated by dividing
the number of trips by the number of households in each category.
8: INTRODUCTION TO TRAVEL DEMAND FORECASTING
Number of cars/households
Family size
1 2
1 2.0 3.0
2 2.5 3.5
3 3.0 4.0
More than 3 5.0 7.0
These trip generation rates are then applied to the forecasted number of households per
category to obtain the future trip generation.
Example 8.1
The city of Vigan had the following land use activity statistics during morning peak hour
in 2000. Estimate the total trip generation during that period.
8: INTRODUCTION TO TRAVEL DEMAND FORECASTING
Solution:
Estimated person trips can be computed by multiplying column a with column b.
The table summarized the total trip generation. Residential units produce about 20,000
person trips in the morning. Trip attraction to various establishments is also obtained by
considering all person trips coming in during the morning peak hour. It must be noted that total
trip attraction does not equal total trip production because there are trips coming from outside the
city of Vigan.
8: INTRODUCTION TO TRAVEL DEMAND FORECASTING
In the Metro Manila Urban Transportation Integration Study (ALMEC Corp 1999), the
following trip generation and attraction models are utilized:
𝑛𝑛
Again, the objective of this model is to determine from which zones these trip generations
(O i ) are generated and to which zones these trip attarctions (D j ) are bound.
A number of models have been developed in the past to distribute trips and these are
classified as follows:
a. Present pattern method
b. Model method
c. Detroit method
The principle behind this method is that trip distribution is proportional to growth rate of
trip generation
8: INTRODUCTION TO TRAVEL DEMAND FORECASTING
and that trip distribution is proportional to the relative growth rate of trip attraction to trip
production
d. Fratar method
This is the most commonly used present pattern method.
Some of the disadvantages of the present pattern method are the following:
A. Complete OD matrix is required.
B. Change of land use is not considered; where the present trip distribution is zero, future
is also zero.
C. If there is error in current OD matrix, the error is expanded with the same rate.
Some of the merits cited for the gravity models are as follows:
a. Trip resistance is considered
b. Structure of model is easy to understand.
c. Complete OD matrix is not necessarily required.
8: INTRODUCTION TO TRAVEL DEMAND FORECASTING
Considering several competing modes, the mode that will have the least generalized cost
will be chosen.
Supposing that there are two modes, with corresponding generalized costs:
The shares of trip makers likely to use modes 1 and 2 are shown by the areas of the time
value distribution in figure 8.4
8: INTRODUCTION TO TRAVEL DEMAND FORECASTING
One disadvantage of the generalized cost method is the difficulty in determining the
distribution of time value. It is also difficult to treat more than two modes.
Example 8.2
A calibrated utility function for travel in a medium-sized city by car, bus, and light rail is
U = a -0.02X 1 – 0.05X 2
Where X 1 is the cost of travel in pesos and X 2 is the travel time (min). Calculate the modal
split for the given values:
Mode A X1 X2
Car -0.3 30 25
Bus -0.38 8 38
Light rail -0.32 15 30
If a parking fee of P30 per trip is imposed, what would be the split to the other two modes?
Solution:
Similarly, P bus and P light rail can be obtained using the same formula. The
calculations are summarized in the table below. The current modal share shows that car and light
rail have almost the same share.
Mode U eu P %
Car -2.15 0.1164 0.3598 36
Bus -2.44 0.0871 0.2692 27
Light rail -2.12 0.1200 0.3708 37
Total 0.3236 1.00 100
Now, when a parking fee of P30 is imposed to each traveller, the utility of car will be
reduced as follows:
U c = -0.3 – 0.2(6) – 0.05(25) = -2.75
8: INTRODUCTION TO TRAVEL DEMAND FORECASTING
The share of car is greatly reduced from 36 percent to 24 percent, an overall reduction of
33 percent. This results in car users shifting to bus and rail, which now have an increased share of
32 percent and 44 percent, respectively.
Given a road network, car drivers will normally use the route or routes through which they
will reach their destination in the least time or distance. The same assumption is used to assign
trips or vehicles in the four-step model. The road network is usually drawn using nodes and links
as shown in figure 8.5. The zone centroids are represented by nodes, and the roads connecting the
zones are presented by links.
8: INTRODUCTION TO TRAVEL DEMAND FORECASTING
a. First, label the staring node with a value equal to 0. This label is permanent as this will
not be changed.
b. Consider each node adjacent to this node and give them temporary labels. (Only those
without permanent labels are considered.)
i. If a node is unlabelled, it is given a label equal to the weight of the link plus the
value of the previously labelled node.
ii. If a node is labelled, calculate the value of the label and, if this is less than the
current value, then exchange its value with the smaller one; otherwise, leave the
label unchanged.
c. Choose the node with the smallest temporary label and make the label permanent.
d. Repeat steps b and c until the final node has been given a permanent label. The shortest
path has a length given by its permanent value.
Example 8.3
Consider the road network shown in figure 8.6(A). The nodes are labelled a to k. The links
have values in travel time in minutes. Determine the shortest path (least travel time) from a to k
using Dijsktra’s algoritm.
Solution:
Node a is given a permanent label with value equal to 0. From a, adjacent nodes are
temporarily labelled as shown in (B). With 2 as the smallest, node b is permanently labelled as
shown in (C). From node b, adjacent nodes are temporarily labelled. Again the node with the
smallest value is chose. Note that either node c or e may be chosen because they both have values
8: INTRODUCTION TO TRAVEL DEMAND FORECASTING
equal to 3. Node c is chosen in this case, and unlabelled nodes adjacent to it are labelled temporarily
as shown in (D). The steps are repeated. It will be noted in (E) that the value 13 is replaced by a
smaller value, which is 11.
8: INTRODUCTION TO TRAVEL DEMAND FORECASTING
It takes steps (A) to (L) to label all the nodes completely. Finally node k is labelled
permanently. The shortest path from node a to k follows the route a-e-g-j-k with a total travel time
of 23 minutes.
8: INTRODUCTION TO TRAVEL DEMAND FORECASTING
All-or-nothing assignment
Considering one OD pair, all trips are assigned to the shortest path from point of origin to
point of destination. After these trips are loaded into the network, the level of service of the roads
in the network may change. The basic steps in conducting an all-or-nothing assignment are as
follows:
a. Find the minimum path between zones i and j.
b. Assign all trips T iy the minimum path.
c. Repeat steps 1 and 2 for all OD pairs.
Example 8.4
Suppose that 100 trips are to be distributed among 4 routes with the following travel times.
Assign these trips using constant assignment ratio.
8: INTRODUCTION TO TRAVEL DEMAND FORECASTING
Route T, hrs
1 1.0
2 1.25
3 1.5
4 2.0
The inverse of time for each route is computed. This serves as the level of service of the
route. The assigned trips to each route are obtained in proportion to this LOS. Higher values would
have larger share of assigned trips. The result of assignment is shown in the table below.
Route I/T Assigned trips
1 1.00 33.71
2 0.8 26.97
3 0.67 22.47
4 0.50 16.85
Total 2.97 100.00
Incremental assignment
This method considers the influence of previously assigned trips. It is based on the
Wardrop’s Princicple, which states that out of several routes available between zones i and j, the
routes that are used have equal level of service. The routes that are not used have lower LOS.
Consider the trips originating from one zone to be assigned. The incremental assignment
method takes the following steps:
a. Assign 1/n of the trips to route (by using all-or-nothing assignment or constant
assignment ratio).
b. Calculate the new level of service for the state that 1/n trips are already assigned.
c. Assign next 1/n trips.
d. Repeat until all trips are assigned.
8: INTRODUCTION TO TRAVEL DEMAND FORECASTING
PROBLEMS
1. Use gravity model (Voohees type) to distribute the person trips given below. Refine the
method using Fratar iteration scheme. (Stop iteration when row and column are 1 ±0.05.)
2. A multinomial logit mode choice model is calibrated for 10,000 persons. The resulting
utility function is given below:
For a particular OD pair, three modes are available, with characteristics as follows:
Mode Out-of-pocket cost, Travel time,min Ave. occupancy
pesos persons/veh
Car 50 30 2
Aircon bus 10 45 40
Jeepney 5 50 14
3. Assign the vehicle trips in the given network below using all-or-nothing assignment. Use
Dijkstra’s algorithm to find minimum paths.
5. Assign the given vehicle trips (veh.hr) using incremental method (n = 3).
6. Assign the peak hour vehicular trips shown on the given road network. Use all-or-nothing
assignment for the first 1/n trips, then use incremental method with capacity-restraint for
the succeeding assignments (n = 2).
b. Growth Factors:
d. Cost of travel (pesos) and travel time in minutes. Use for modal choice only.
(Assume data for 1 to 2 are the same for 2 to 1, etc.)
8: INTRODUCTION TO TRAVEL DEMAND FORECASTING
Perform:
i. trip distribution using Fratar method (make 1 iteration only, i.e., get one set of
row and column factors)
ii. modal split using logit model
iii. trip assignment of cars only using all-or-nothing assignment
(Average veh, occupancy: car – 1.5 persons; Jeepney = 14.0 persons)
REFERENCES
9
INTRODUCTION TO INTELLIGENT
TRANSPORTATION SYSTEM
9.1 INTRODUCTION
Based on the experience of several countries that have earlier deployed ITS, some of the
estimated benefits are the following (US DOT 1998):
a. Advanced traffic surveillance and signal control systems have resulted in travel time
reduction ranging from 8 percent to 25 percent.
b. Electronic fare payment technologies for transit systems have resulted in increased
revenues 3-30 percent due to fewer evasions.
c. Incident management programs can reduce delay associated with congestion caused by
incidents by 10-45 percent.
9: INTRODUCTION TO INTELLIGENT TRANSPORTATION SYSTEM
Initial assessment
9: INTRODUCTION TO INTELLIGENT TRANSPORTATION SYSTEM
There is a tendency to assume that once a new traffic control system replaces an older one,
traffic flow will automatically improve – speeds will increase quieting will be less, traffic will be
orderly, etc. However, there are a number of factors external to the system that may severely affect
the traffic flow. In a “before-and-after” study conducted to evaluate the system, it was observed
that most of the unwanted practices noted during the before case were still prevalent during the
after case (UP NCTSFI 2001). These include
• uncontrolled loading and unloading of passengers by PUVs;
• illegal parking;
• vendors occupying sidewalks (even carriageway), leaving pedestrians no option but to use
the road;
• commuters on the road waiting for rides; and
• laxity in traffic enforcement.
These practices severely hinder the flow of traffic along some thoroughfares considered in
the study – Taft Ave., Mabini St., and Del Pilar St. There is no way that SCATS alone can solve
the traffic problems along these roads. A concerned effort by concerned authorities is therefore
necessary to eliminate these practices. Otherwise, the government’s effort to alleviate congestion
through the use of advanced technologies will be worthless.
9: INTRODUCTION TO INTELLIGENT TRANSPORTATION SYSTEM
Nevertheless, the SCATS has been found to manage traffic better by preventing extreme
peaing (or concentration) of the traffic volumes, thus allowing the available capacities to be used
more optimally. With regard to queuing, twenty-five intersections along four corridors (i.e., Taft
Avenue, Roxas Boulevard, Mabini St., and Del Pilar St.) were evaluated before and after the
installation and operation of the SCATS traffic signal system. An overall reduction of 30.39
percent was estimated four queue lengths during the morning peak. Similarly, an overall reduction
of 35.98 percent was estimated for afternoon peek queues. These reduction clearly indicates an
improvement due to the installation and operation of SCATS.
b. Cash collection
• Uses magnetic striped card which is encoded by the toll teller and handed to the
patron at entry booth,
• Card is electronically “read” at the exit booth.
• Toll teller classifies the vehicle/AVC system makes its own classification
independently.
• Toll is computed by the computer and displayed to the toll teller and the patron.
• A motorist receipt is generated.
Initial assessment
The existing system lacks some of the features of a full-blown ETC system found in other
countries. There is no monitoring system using cameras or automatic vehicle violation processing
system. To cut cost, a simplified system was devised so that full control is done within the
jurisdiction of the expressway. The existing ETC system requires motorists to slow down or to
come to a full stop for checking. A horizontal barrier lifts when a green light is given. At times,
when traffic becomes heavy, a bumper-to-bumper situation can cause the barrier to rise and fall
too often. This can confuse drivers who follow light and barrier. This technical flaw needs to be
addressed since in 2001, at least 200 barriers were destroyed every month, not to mention damages
to vehicles. Minimum spacing or headway between vehicles should be enforced. A simple method
is to paint two lines before the toll gates for checking the spacing.
Based on an initial study of the operation of the tollway, the dedicated E-PASS lane has an
average tollbooth transaction time of 1.15 seconds per vehicle compared to 15.0 seconds per
vehicles for the manual scheme (cash coupons), and 5.9 seconds per vehicles for mixed-mode
lanes (Padayhag and Sigua 2001). Table 9.1 shows the lane usage and service rates at Nichols A
tollgate.
9: INTRODUCTION TO INTELLIGENT TRANSPORTATION SYSTEM
Table 9.2 shows he number of vehicles using the dedicated E-PASS lanes at Nichols and
Bicutan during peak hours. At Nichols A, 13.6 percent of the vehicles using the tollgate are E-
PASS users.
a. Morning peak (7:30 – 10:30 AM)
The SLEX ETC system is a distance-based system. Overall, the trip demand on the use of
the expressway is basically the same. It is worth looking at the system as time-based, with higher
fees collected or charged during peak hours. The concept of time-based fee charging is discussed
in the next section.
After major rehabilitation of the North Luzon Expressway (NLEX), the Manila North
Luzon Tollways Corporation began full operation of ETC in early 2005. (See figure 9.6) Dubbed
EC-Tag, the ETC and NLEX operates at the same frequency (DSRC 5.8 Ghz) similar to SLEX.
Among the features of the new NEX are computerized toll collection system; dedicated lane for
transponder and swipe card system for faster transactions; reliable emergency and roadside
services; including smart emergency phone boxes; and twenty-four-hour emergency assistance
consisting of telephone operators, traffic patrol teams, first air emergency trucks and tow trucks.
9: INTRODUCTION TO INTELLIGENT TRANSPORTATION SYSTEM
Table 9.3 shows a comparison of the SLEX and the NLEX ETC systems. The estimated
percentage of ETC users was for the year 2006.
Koshi’s assessment of the traffic congestion in Manila, Bangkok, and Jakarta made him
conclude that the only effective method available in Asian cities is “road pricing” (Koshi 1996).
Fees have to be set unrealistically high to achieve a meaningful reduction in overall demand. Its
primary objective should be to encourage drivers to reconsider their time of departure and time of
return. As a secondary benefit, the revenue generated from it can be used for building public transit
networks such as bus and rail transit systems. However, he also stressed that unless adequate
transportation infrastructure is built, the problem will not be solved no matter what amount of time
or money is present on information processing and communication. The first priority, therefore, is
to build rail transit system.
might be found. Nevertheless, increases in traffic or alternative routes might become an almost
permanent condition in the near future. Heavy traffic might therefore be diverted into residential
neighbourhoods or onto other socially undesirable routes.
An important question is: How high should the new road charges be? These should be high
enough to divert the minimum number of vehicles needed to achieve desired average speeds, but
not so high that surrounding roadways become clogged because so many vehicles have had to be
diverted. Choosing the right tools will therefore be a matter of trial-and-error experimenting on
each road. Coping with the traffic that shifts to alternative routes that do not charge tolls poses a
challenge.
i. The effect of reducing traffic congestion is significant in and around Makati (5-
10 percent).
ii. Potential revenue estimated at US$ 61 million per year.
d. Parking pricing
Parking pricing within the CBD of Makati City was assumed. A parking pricing
charge of about US$ 1 per parking event was applied.
i. Effect on alleviation minimal.
ii. Potential revenue about US$ 15 million per year.
a. Institution
Success ITS deployment requires a very high level of cooperation between national
and local agencies on the one hand, and law enforcement and emergency response agencies
on the other. Since these agencies do not normally work closely together, significant turf
and organizational culture problems may arise. Traditional transportation agency leaders
also suffer from inadequate knowledge of ITS technologies and their potential benefits.
b. Infrastructure
Successful ITS deployment and operations require basic infrastructure elements
like a well-developed communications backbone and uninterrupted power supply.
9: INTRODUCTION TO INTELLIGENT TRANSPORTATION SYSTEM
c. Technology
Understanding the role of ITS technologies is critical to its success. ITS planning
and design should be based on “needs-based assessments”, not just on technology push.
d. Finance/budget
Although IS deployments cost significantly less than new road construction, they
involve allocation of funds to be spent on systems unfamiliar to transport authorities, or
which have not been deployed widely elsewhere. This creates a situation of inadequate
support for ITS projects, especially, since several transport authorities cannot even afford
basic highway maintenance and rehabilitation.
A truly working ITS scheme, such as Electronic Road Pricing (ERP) or ETC, is one that
has the right objectives, delivers its predicted benefits, and is acceptable to the ones paying for it.
This means that when an ITS scheme is successful, the ones paying for it have to enjoy some of
its benefits.
Something that works in Singapore may not work in Manila. Cultures differ greatly.
Charging for something that used to be free may not be a good approach. A number of ITS schemes
such as ERP will never succeed as long as the victims of the current problems feel they have to
pay for becoming a victim in the solution.
There is already a growing criticism that ITS favors the rich. Expected beneficiaries of ITS
should not be only car users. Metro Manila is a good example when it comes to public transport
patronage. About 70 percent of trip makers rely on public transport. It should be the policy of the
government that revenues from ITS schemes (ETC or ERP) be earmarked for transportation
infrastructure development, such as mass transit systems, instead of simply going to general funds.
Unless ITS is geared toward mass transportation system, it is likely to fail in developing countries
where majority of trip makers rely on public transport for mobility.
9: INTRODUCTION TO INTELLIGENT TRANSPORTATION SYSTEM
9.6 CONCLUSION
ITS should complement the government’s plans and programs to build more urban
expressways and urban rail networks. Preparations for planning and deployment of ITS – such as
full-blown ETC along expressways or major arterials. ERP for CBDs and, automation at
LRT/MRT stations – should begin now. Urgent tasks to be done are the following:
• Creation of an official organization to look at ITS priorities.
• Development of ITS master plan for Metro Manila. Priority should be given to mass
transport-related ITS application. There is also the growing concern on safety and
environment issues.
• Comprehensive analysis of the first examples/initiatives of ITS deployment in Metro
Manila – SCATS signal System and Skyway’s ETC – their effectiveness, and what went
wrong. Is SCATS a failure due to lack of complementing traffic management measures?
Do ETC’s partial implementation and cost-cutting measures make the system ineffective?
Is full implementation an absolute condition?
• Making it known that ITS is not only for developed countries. ITS seems to be so
sophisticated/high-tech that it becomes incomprehensible to traditional politicians. In a
developing country, there is a strong tendency to rely heavily on manual methods due to
cheap labor. This is also true on the Philippines where manual method is thought to be
more effective than automatic means.
• As government is desperately looking for effective solutions, a lot of convincing is needed
for the decision makers to believe that ITS is not simply a “technology push” but a viable
solution to Metro Manila’s congestion problem.
REFERENCES
ALMEC Corporation. 1999. Metro Manila urban transportation integration studies
(MMUTIS). Project final report, December.
Highway Industry Development Organization (HIDO). 2000. Intelligent transport systems.
ITS handbook 2000-2001. Japan.
Koshi. M. 1996. Traffic congestion in Asian cities: The wheel extended. A Toyota
Quarterly Review, no. 95.
9: INTRODUCTION TO INTELLIGENT TRANSPORTATION SYSTEM
Padayhag. G. U. and R.G. Sigua 2001. Evaluation of electronic toll collection (ETC)
system along South Luzon Expressway and Manila Skyway. 9th Annual conference,
Transportation Science Society of the Philippines, Manila. July.
University of the Philippines National center for Transportation Studies Foundation Inc.
(UP NCTSFI). 2001. Metro Manila SMART Traffic Signaling Project (SCATS) before and
after study final report, June.
US Department of Transportation, 1998. ITS Joint Program, ITS for Metropolitan Areas.
GLOSSARY OF TERMS
Dr. Ricardo G. Sigua is a professor at the College of Engineering of the University of the
graduate programs of the Civil Engineering Department. He obtained his Bachelor of Science in
Civil Engineering degree from the same university in 1978. He finished his master’s and doctor’s
degrees from the University of Tokyo in 1984 and 1991, respectively. Professor Sigua served as
director of the UP National Center for Transportation Studies for two terms (1996-1999 and
Philippine Institute of Civil Engineers (PICE). He has been the Philippines’ lone Country