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Historical Methods Newsletter

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A Note on Self-teaching, Reference Tools, and New

Approaches in Quantitative History
a
Colin B. Burke
a
Department of History , San Francisco State College
Published online: 07 Feb 2013.

To cite this article: Colin B. Burke (1971) A Note on Self-teaching, Reference Tools, and New Approaches in
Quantitative History, Historical Methods Newsletter, 4:2, 35-42, DOI: 10.1080/00182494.1971.10593937

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 HISTORICAL METHODS NEWSLETTER:
QUANTITATIVE ANALYSIS OF SOCIAL, ECONOMIC, AND POLITICAL DEVELOPMENT
EDITORIAL BOARD PUBLISHED QUARTERLY BY THE
CHARLES DOLLAR, OKLAHOMA STATE UNIVERSITY UNIVERSITY OF PITTSBURGH
SAMUEL P, HAYS, UNIVERSITY OF PITTSBURGH
RICHARD JENSEN, WASHINGTON UNIVERSITY (ST. LOUIS)
PAUL KLEPPNER, NORTHERN ILLINOIS UNIVERSITY
GILBERT SHAPIRO, UNIVERSITY OF PITTSBURGH
DOUGLAS K. STEWART. UNIVERSITY OF PITTSBURGH

EDITOR: JONATHAN LEVINE, UNIVERSITY OF PITTSBURGH

Copyright, 1971, Department af History, University of Pittsburgh. All rights reserved.

Vol. IV No. 2 March 1971
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A Note on Self-teaching, Reference Tools, and New

Approaches in Quantitative History*

Colin B. Burke
Department of History
San Francisco State College

The purpose of this note is to provide bibliographic help to professional histo-

rians who: 1) need to teach themselves the foundations of quantitative methods;
2) have found their ability to apply statistics blocked by both a poor conceptual
approach and a deficiency in significant underlying techniques; 3) need a basic ref-
erence list that provides a comprehensive survey of available research tools; and
4) have found themselves frustrated by the inadequacy of currently popular tech-
niques in the field.

The bibliographic recommendations for these needs are based upon a common set
of assumptions. The first is that the quantitative historian, while needing a degree
of technical competence in probability and mathematics, does not need to become a
technical expert in either field. He needs to learn the language of the statistician
well enough to understand the underlying assumptions, constraints, and potential
applicability of a wide range of techniques. Beyond this point a professional meth-
odologist should be consulted.

The second but related assumption is that since it is the commitment to empir-
ical canons of inference, generalization, and proof that distinguishes the quanti-
tative from the non-quantitative historian, the research design conceptualization
of statistics should be emphasized when surveying quantitative methods. All tech-
niques should be viewed as decision rules,"meta-models," and the center of research
designs. Isomorphism is the key for quantitative historians.

*This is the last of three~notes by Mr. Burke on the teaching and use of statistics
for historical research. The earlier notes appeared in HMN Vol. 3, No. 3 (June 1970),
pp. 8-11 and Vol. 3, No. 4 (Sept. 1970), pp. 1-2.
 36

The third assumption is that quantitative history is still in a naive and com-
paratively low stage of development. And, that even in the "quantified" fields of
the social and behavioral sciences forthcoming developments will supplant approaches
and techniques currently used. Thus, at all learning stages, the emphasis should
be upon comprehension of the general logic of statistics and quantitative methods
so that training will have a continuous pay-off in the face of increasing change
and growth.

The task of an adequate set of bibliographic recommendations should thus be

to indicate those works that have the highest general conceptual value rather than
the most immediate technical value. While my suggestions include inventories of
techniques, the focus is upon those works that generate conceptual understanding
and that place quantitative methods in the research design context.

For those historians who fall into the first category the recommendations put
forward in the first two of these notes will fulfill most of their needs. Empha-
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sis should be placed on the works by Kerlinger, Jensen and Dollar, Hayes, Diamond,
and Campbell.! For those who have serious difficulties with typical approaches to
mathematics and statistics several unusual books may provide help depending upon
the personality and background of the reader. Stibitz's introductory text for
mathematics in biology is superb and entertaining. The first volume of the Mathe-
matics for Management Series, is also aimed at circumventing psychological a~
conceptual blocks. Jurgensen, on geometry, is not only a superb teaching tool,
but embarrassing since it is a high school text. Calculus is treated in a manner
sympathetic to those enteringomathematics late in life in the previously cited
McGinnis book and the new work by Bisher and Drewes. Statistics are verbally ex-
plained in the classic Wallis and Roberts text and Levy forces the reader to place
all traditional measures in the context of modeling. Finite mathematics is intro-
duced with solid examples in the standard text by Kemeny, Snell, and Thompson.2

Historians who have already forced themselves through typical statistics and
mathematic textbooks but have still not reached an operational level will find
several works extremely useful. Not only will they help achieve a more fruitful
conceptualization within the research design framework, but they can boost the
researcher to the necessary level of technical expertise. Sterling and Pollack,
M. W. Riley, and Russell Ackoff do magnificent jobs on reconceptualizing tradi-
tional measures and placing them in the context of ongoing research. Ezekiel and
Fox take the reader through relatively advanced regression analysis step by step.
The new work by Kraft and van Eeden not only reconceptualizes the foundations of
non-parametric statistics but provide a new starting point for understanding almost
all statistical tests. All of Bailey's works from the biological perspective have
been found useful for tho~e students who have not been able to 'tune in' to works
from the social sciences. Spurr and Bonini provide a viable framework for a basie
appreciation of Baysian approaches as well as time series. The second edition of
Yamani's Statistics is an excellent re-introduction to index, weighting, and time
series problems.4

Two books that not only provide basic re-orientations but also a wealth of
techniques not found even in advanced texts are Coleman's Introduction to Mathe-
matical Sociology, and King's Statistical Analysis in Geography. Each of these
works has the unusual quality of being a basic and advanced work at the same
time. The both have a number of techniques applicable to history and are invalu-
able as reference works and to stimulate thought.S
 37

There is no easy route to reaching the technical level necessary to understand

and utilize the techniques available in mathematically oriented statistical sources.
However, stochastic process are dealt with in a manner sympathetic to the non-pro-
fessional in the fourth book in the Irwin Mathematics for Management Series. A
dogged progression through Goldberg, Fruend, and Feller should provide more than
enough familiarity with the language of the mathematical statistician. The easiest
route to a relatively high competency in algebra and matrix techniques is through
Spiegel, Hadley, and Horst. Jonston 1 s now standard text is a difficult but neces-
sary step to understand the approach of the econometricians. Surprisingly, the
reader is kindly treated to the more sophisticated aspects of time series in Brown's
Smoothing, Forecasting, and Predictio~ of Discrete Time Series.6

Two books that place quantitative methods and the assumptions behind them in
a philosophical perspective are Luchins and Luchins's Logical Foundations of Mathe-
matics for Behavioral Scientists and Contemporary Problems in Statistics. ~hey
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deal with the logical and philosophical hearts of the enterprise (without losing
the general reader) and point out pitfalls in particular tests. Both are neces-
sary background reading.7

The third categorS of need, a list of reference books, is dealt with in the
notes to this article. All of the citations are basic works covering most of the
traditional techniques. In many cases possible sources have not been cited because
of their level of complexity or because they would be cited in the works included
in the annotated bibliography. Four general sources need special mention. Before
beginning a detailed search for techniques and models the researcher should consult
Miller's Handbook of Research Design and Social Measurement, the bibliography to
the new Jensen and Dollar text, and appropriate articles in the International Ency-
clopedia of the Social Sciences and the Handbook of Socia~ Psychology.9

A host of new develop~ents are taking place in the social and behavioral sci-
ences shauld be most helpful to the quantitative historian. Developments in scaling,
typologies, transformations, low measurement order statistics, data analysis, and
causal modeling all hold real promise for removing quantitative history from its
rather naive approaches to historical problems. Several new traditional fields in
the social sciences seem ripe for utilization in historical·study.lO

Advances in scaling relevant to historians faced with data level problems are
well introduced in Coomb's A Theory £f Data. The ISR has several programs avail-
able for these new approaches. Stochastic models and their potentials are well
presented in Bartholomew's splendid text. Morgan and Sandquist provide readable
introductions to new approaches to nominal and mixed mode data. An exciting new
approach to data analysis is well introduced by Leo A. Goodman and carried through
in the difficult but unsubstitutible text by Miller.Simultaneous Statistical In-
ference. Harrary, Norman, and Cartwright's Structural Models: An Introduction
to the Theory of Directed Graphs, should spark the historian interested in social
structure and processes. The work of Sakal and Sneath provides an excellent entry
into the field of typologies. The exploding field of statistical geography is
parsimoniously introduced with a reading of the Chorley and Haggett series and
the King text.ll

Game and coalition theory as well as simulation techniques seem ripe for use
by the historian. As yet, there are no comprehensive texts in these fields at a
level that would be understood_ by the uninitiated. Down's work is now classic
 38

and Buchannon and Tullock give an overview of the field. W. W. Kelly's article
is somewhat dated but useful and Black's Committee's and Elections is standard. 12

Perhaps the most exciting developments have come from the causal modeling
approach to quantitative methods. The work of Hubert Blalock and those associ-
ated with him has ramifications for all aspects of research. Work done through
this school of thought will doubtless contribute the most to bringing quantita-
tive history out of the naive stage of causal inference. The best single intro-
duction is Blalock's Theory Construction. However, this should be supplemented
by his Causal Inferences in Nonexperimental Research and Methodology in Social
Research.l3 -

NOTES
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1. Colin B. Burke, "Teaching Non-Mathematical Statistics to Undergraduate

Historians,"' HMN, Vol. 3, No. 3 (June 1970) pp. 8-11 and Burke, "Statistical Text-
books for Upper-Level Classes in Quantitative History," HMN, Vol. 3, No. 4 (Sept.
1970) pp. 1-2; Fred N. Kerlinger, Foundations of Behavioral Research: Educational
and Psychological Inquiry (New York: Holt, Rinehart & Winston, 1965); Richard
Jensen and Charles A. Dollar, The Historian's Guide to Statistics (New York: Holt,
Rinehart & Winston, 1971); William L. Hays, Statisti~ for Psychologists (New York:
Holt, Rinehart & Winston, 1963); Solomon Diamond, Information and Error (New York:
Basic Books, 1969); and Donald T. Campbell and Julian C. Stanley, Experimental
and Quasi-Experimental Designs for Research (New York: Rand McNally and Co., 1969).

2. G. R. Stibitz, Mathematics in Medicine and the Life Sciences (Chicago:

Chicago Year Book Medical Publishers, Inc., 1966); The Mathematics for Management
Series (Homewood, Ill.: Richard D. Irwin, Inc., 1968); Ray C. Jurgensen, Alfred J.
Donnely, and Mary P. Dociani, Modern Geometry (New York: Houghton Mifflin Co.,
1963); Robert McGinnis, Mathematical Foundations for Social Analysis (New York;
The Bobbs-Merrill Co., 1965); John W. Bisher and Donald W. Drewes, Mathematics
in the Behavioral and Social Sciences (New York: Harcourt, Brace & World, Inc.,
1970); Sheldon G. Levy, Inferential Statistics in the Behavioral Sciences (New
York: Holt, Rinehart & Winston, Inc., 1968); W. Allen Wallis and Harry V. Roberts,
Statistics: f=. New Approach (Glencoe, Ill.: The Free Press, 1956); and John G.
Kemeny, J. Laurie Snell, and Gerald L. Thompson, Introduction!£ Finite Mathe-
matics (Englewood Cliffs, N.J.: Prentice-Hall, Inc., 1956).

3. Theodor D. Sterling and Seymour V. Pollack,Introduction to Statistical

~Processing (Englewood Cliffs, N.J.: Prentice-Hall, Inc., 1968); Matilda
White Riley, Sociological Research: !, ! Case Approach (New York: Harcourt,
Brace & World, Inc., 1963); Russell L. Ackoff, et •. al., Scientific Method: Q£-
timizing Applied Research Design (New York: John Wiley & Sons, Inc., 1962);
Mordecai Ezekiel and Karl A. Fox, Methods Of Correlation ~ Regression Analysis:
Linear and Curvilinear (New York: John Wiley & Sons, Inc., 1959); Charles H.
Kraft and Constance van Eeden, !, Nonparametric Introduction !£ Statistics (New
York: The MacMillan Co., 1968); and Norman T. J. Bailey, The Mathematical Approach
to Biology and Medicine (New York: John Wiley & Sons, Inc., 1967).
 39

4. William A. Spurr and Charles P. Bonini, Statistical Analysis for Business

Decisions (Homewood, Ill.: Richard D. Irwin, Inc., 1967); and Taro Yamane, Statis-
tics, An Introductory Analysis, 2nd ed. (New York: Harper & Row, 1969).

5. James S. Coleman, Introduction!£ Mathematical Sociology (Glencoe, Ill.:

The Free Press, 1964); and Leslie J. King, Statistical Analysis in Geography
(Englewood Cliffs, N.J.: Prentice-Hall, Inc., 1969).

6. Clifford H. Springer, et ·al., Probabilistic Models (Homewood, Ill.:

Richard D. Irwin, Inc., 1968); Samuel Goldberg, Probability: An Int~oduction,
(Englewood Cliffs, N.J.: Prentice-Hall, Inc., 1960); John E. Freund, Mathematical
Statistics (Englewood Cliffs, N.J.: Prentice-Hall, Inc., 1962);William Feller,
An Introduction to Probability Theory and Its Applications, 2nd ed. (New York:
John Wiley & Sons, Inc., 1957); Murray R. Spiegel, Theory and Problems of College
Algebra (New York: Schaum Publishing Co., 1956); G. Hadley, Linear Algebra
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(Reading, Mass.: Addison-Wesley Publishing Co., 1961); Paul Horst, Matrix Algebra
for Social Scientists (New York: Holt, Rinehart & Winston, Inc., 1963); J. Johnston,
Econometric Methods (New York: McGraw-Hill Book Co.~ Inc., 1963); and Robert G.
Brown, Smoothing, Forecasting and Prediction of Discrete Time Series (Englewood
Cliffs, N.J.: Prentice-Hall, Inc., 1963).

7. AbrahamS. Luchins and Edith H. Luchins, Logical Foundations of Mathe-

matics for Behavioral Scientists (New York: Holt, Rinehart & Winston, Inc., 1965);
and Bernhardt Lieberman, Contemporary Problems in Statistics: ! Book of Readings
for the Behavioral Sciences (New York: Oxford University Press, 1970).

8. The following list of reference sources should serve as a sampler of

major techniques available as well as a guide to entering the periodical litera-
ture. It is impossible to give a brief reference list without citing technical
works. However, I have attempted, where possible, to cite less technical works
on the same subject without delving into the periodical literature. All of the
texts mentioned in the body of this article should be considered as part of the
following list.

T. Anderson, Introduction !£Multivariate Analysis (New York: John Wiley & Sons,
Inc., 1958). An excellent mathematical text that calls for technical knowledge
and a time investment. A mastery of it would provide a conceptual and technical
foundation for all of the traditional multivariate approaches.

R. G. Allen, Mathematical Economics (London: MacMillan, 1965). This is a com-

pendious text covering traditional approaches in econometrics. It is still ex-
tremely valuable but somewhat dated as to methods included.

Donald T. Campbell, Lawrence Ross, and Gene V. Glass, Experimental Methods

(Englewood Cliffs, N.J.: Prentice-Hall, Inc., forthcoming). This work will be
the most solid introduction to experimental design problems in the field if the
authors come up to their usual standards.

David B. Cox, Planning of Experiments (New York: John Wiley & Sons, Inc., 1958).
This is the easiest of the traditional approaches to research design in the
mathematically oriented presentation mode.
 40

Carl F. Christ, Econometric Models and Methods (New York: John Wiley & Sons, Inc.,
1966). This is the most readable and comprehensive of the new econometric texts.

W. W. Cooley and P. R. Lohnes, Multivariate Procedures for the Behavioral Sciences

(New York: John Wiley & Sons, Inc., 1962). This work is still a standard in the
field but is somewhat dated because of the rapid advances in multivariate ap-
proaches. It is somewhat difficult and demands skill in matrix algebra.

N. Draper and H. Smith, Applied Regression Analysis (New York: John Wiley & Sons,
Inc., 1966). This is a brilliant text that is not too difficult and that goes
far beyond the standard Eziekiel and Fox volume.

D. J. Finney, Probit Analysis, 2nd ed. (Cambridge, Eng.: Cambridge University

Press, 1952). This is one of those rare books by a clever and delicate mind.
The book not only discusses the general problems of mixed measurement level sta-
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tistics but clearly states the logic of probit, one of the econometricians
favorite esoteric techniques.

Donald A. S. Fraser, Nonparametric Statistics (New York: John Wiley & Sons, Inc.,
1957). A mathematically oriented text that leads to understanding rather than
operations. It is the classic at its technical level.

Benjamin Fuchter, Introduction to Factor Analysis (New York: D. Van Nostrand,

1954). This book is dated but is still a valuable introduction to factor analysis.

E. J. Hannan, Multiple~ Series (New York: John Wiley & Sons, Inc., 1970).
A new work on a very complex topic. It is technical but still a solid coverage
of a difficult subject.

Harry Harman, Modern Factor Analysis, Rev. ed. (Chicago: University of Chicago
Press, 1967). This is the best all-around text on factor analysis and is
readable.

M.G. Kendall and Alan Stuart, The Advanced Theory of Statistics, three volumes
(New York: Hafner, 1958-1966). This is the compendium of statistics. It is ex-
tremely advanced but the sections on time series serve as standard references
at any but the elementary level.

M.G. Kendall, Rank Correlation Methods, 2nd ed. (New York: Hafner, 1955).
This is the standard reference on rank techniques.

Leslie Kish, Survey Sampling (New York: John Wiley & Sons, Inc., 1965). This
is the sophisticated but readable source for sampling in the social sciences
in a working research context.

M. L. Puri and K. s. Sen, Nonparametric Methods In Multivariate Analysis (New

York: John Wiley & Sons, Inc., forthcoming). A brand new work that covers with
some comprehension a field that is not only becoming necessary to the social
scientist and quantitative historian but that has not yet been covered in any
sense by one text.
 41

Rupert Runnnel, "Understanding Factor Analysis," Journal of Conflict Resolution,

11:4 (December, 1967), pp. 445-480. This relatively sho;t article is such a
splendid example of a conceptual approach to understanding a technique that it
must be cited as one of the important works on factor analysis.

Sidney Seigel, Nonparametric Statistics for the Behavioral Sciences (New York:
McGraw-Hill Book Co., 1956). This is the standard cook-book for nonparametric
techniques.

Hilary L. Seal, Multivariate Statistical Analysis for Biologists (New York: John
Wiley & Sons, Inc., 1964). This is an outstanding text not only for coverage
but because of its fresh conceptual approach.

Karl Schuesller, Sampling in Social Research (Englewood Cliffs, N.J.: Prentice-

Hall, Inc., forthcoming). This should turn out to be the best introduction to
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the field from a non-mathematical approach.

W. Torgenson, Theory and Method of Scaling (New York: John Wiley & Sons, Inc.,
1958). This is the classic in measurement problems and scaling techniques. It
is somewhat dated but still invaluable.

John E. Walsh, Handbook of Nonparametric Statistics,three volumes (Princeton,

N.J.: D. Van Nostrand Co., 1962-68). This is a standard yet difficult encyclo-
pedia on nonparametrics.

Some of the very best treatments of advanced statistical techniques are found
in the texts for packaged computer programs. Not only are the treatments ex-
plicit and readable, but the techniques are more advanced than those found in
even the best of regular statistical texts. For example, see: Norman H. Nie,
et al., Statistical Package for the Social Sciences, 1968, W. Dixon (ed.), Bio-
medical Computer Programs (Berkeley, Cal.: University of California Press, 1967).
Such journals as Data Processing Digest should be surveyed.

9. D. C. Miller, Handbook of Research Design and Social Measurement, 2nd ed.

(McKay, 1970); Richard Jensen and Charles A. Dollar, ££• ~.,David L. Sills, ed.,
International Encyclopedia of the Social Sciences (New York: The MacMillan Co.
and the Free Press, 1968); and Gardner Lindzey and Elliot Aronson, eds., Hand-
book of Social Psychology, 2nd ed. (Reading, Mass.: Addison-Wesley Publishing
Co., 1968).

10. An outstanding review essay is Hayward Alker, Jr., "Statistics and

Politics, The Need for Causal Data Analysis," 244-313, inS. M. Lipset,ed.,
Politics and the Social Sciences (New York: Oxford University Press, 1969).
Also extr~ly dLEficult but necessary is J. W. Tukey, "The Future of Data
Analysis," Annals of Mathematical Statistics, 33, 1-67. Also informative and
necessary is the philosophical rather than statistical work by Mario Bunge,
Causality: The Place of the Causal Principle in Modern Science (Cambridge, Mass.:
Harvard University Press, 1969).
 42

11. Clyde H. Coombs,~ Theory of Data (New York: John Wiley & Sons, Inc.,
1964). For a different approach to similar problems see, Paul F. Lazarsfeld and
Neil W. Henry, Latent Structure Analysis (Boston, Mass.: Houghton Mifflin Co.,
1968); D. J. Bartholomew, Stochastic Models for Social Processes (New York: John
Wiley & Sons, Inc., 1967); John A. Sonquist and James N. Morgan, The Detection
of Interaction Effects (Ann Arbor, Mich.: Institute for Social Re~rch, 1969);
Frank Andrews, James Morgan, and John Sonquist, Multiple Classification Analysis
(Ann Arbor, Mich.: Institute for Social Research, 1969); Leo A. Goodman, "How
to Ransack Social Mobility Tables and Other Kinds of Cross Classification Tables,"
American Journal of Sociology, 75 (July 1969), 1-40; Rupert G. Miller, Jr.,
Simultaneous Statistical Inference (New York: McGraw-Hill Book Co., 1966);
Frank Harrary, Robert z. Norman, and Derwin Cartwright, Structural Models: An
Introduction!£ the Theory of Directed Graphs (New York: John Wiley & Sons, Inc.,
1965); Robert R. Sokal and Peter H. A. Sneath, Principals of Numerical Taxonomy
(San Francisco, Cal.: W. H. Freeman & Co., 1963); and Richard J. Chorley and
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Peter Haggett, Models in Geography (London: Methuen & Co., Ltd., 1967). Demog-
raphy is well covered in Donald J, Bogue, Principles of Demography (New York:
John Wiley & Sons, Inc., 1969).

12. Anthony Downs, An Economic Theory of Democracy (New York: Harper & Row,
1957); James M. Buchanon and Gordon Tullock, The Calculus of Consent: Logical
Foundations of Constitutional Democracy (Ann Arbor, Mich.: University of Michigan
Press, 1962); E. W. Kelley, "Techniques of Studying Coalition Formation," Midwest
Journal of Political Science, 12 (1968), 62-84; Donald E. Stokes, "Spatial Models
of PartyCompetition," in Angus Campbell, et al., Elections and the Political
Order (New York: John Wiley & Sons, Inc., 1966); Gordon Tullock,-rbwards A Mathe-
matics of Politics (Ann Arbor, Mich.: University of Michigan Press, 1967); Duncan
Black, The Theory of Committees and Elections (London: Cambridge University Press,
1958); and J. D. Williams, The Compleat Strategist (New York: McGraw-Hill Book Co.,
1954).
H. S. Guetzkow, Simulation in the Sot:ial Sciences (E:Q.glewood Cliffs, N.J .. : Prentice-
Hall, Inc., 1962) is still the ~omprel1ensive survey._ The best working example is
Ithiel de :Sola Pool,- et al., Candid,!ltes., Issyes, and Strategies (C?mbridge: M~ I, T.
Press, 1965). -For a classroom and -historical ·use~ see: Colin Burke, The Jacksonian
Game: ~ Classroom and Computer Simulati@~ of American Presidential El~ions 1836-
1860, forthcom:lng, 1971.

13. Hubert M. Blalock, Jr., Theory Construction: From Verbal to Mathematical

Formulation (Englewood Cliffs, N.J.: Prentice-Hall, Inc::-1969); Hubert M. Blalock,
Jr., Causal Inferences in Nonexperimental Research (Chapel Hill, N.C.: University
of North Carolina Press, 1964); and Hubert M. Blalock and Ann B. Blalock, Method-
~ in Social Research (New York: McGraw-Hill Book Co., 1968).