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India Retail:

Stepping Up the Game!

India Retail: Stepping Up the Game 1


2 India Retail: Stepping Up the Game
The retail ecosystem in India is at the After creating a strong foothold in
forefront of change. As consumers expect purchasing income yielding office assets
experience to become hygiene, retail as an in India, the PE investor will see increased
industry is going through seismic shifts to interest in participating in development in
become much more diverse and vibrant. new malls and regenerating existing malls.
Trends being witnessed are rationalisation Various new regulations like easing foreign
of supply, increased investor interest, investment for single-brand retailers,
omni-channel retailing and strong growth longer shopping hours and an updated
in ‘Experiential’ retailing. This paper, ‘India framework for establishing Real Estate
Retail: Stepping Up the Game’ analyses Investment Trusts (REITs) have attracted
some of these trends and showcases the attention of various Private Equity (PE)
a promising future for growth of Indian funds and this trend will continue.
malls and Retail as a whole. As the current Another case study in the paper evaluates
total stock of 76 million sq ft of mall space the growing importance of F&B which
appears to drift closer to the 100 million is becoming the key USP for malls. In
sq ft mark over the next three to four fact, over the past five years, the space
years, there will be several changes in the take up by F&B is gaining faster footprint
“experience” shoppers will get visiting them. across malls, and will in future be the true
Rationalisation of supply is highlighted ‘Experiential’ differentiator.
in the paper with superior quality malls The paper has touched upon a few
estimated to form 62% of the total supply in key trends and its special focus on
the future (2018-2022) compared with 46% consolidation is very relevant today with
(2008-2012). Developers are making use of the retail sector witnessing increased
past experiences and learnings to create activity in terms of acquisitions and
more and superior quality malls. Some of mergers. I hope you enjoy the read!
the key factors determining the success
of malls will be design, varied tenant mix,
strength of catchment, infrastructure,
amenities etc. But an increasingly
influencing factor will be the mall’s ability
to counter shoppers’ expectation for
Best regards,
‘experience’. The paper also explores the
Ramesh Nair
key factors that lead to the success of
CEO & Country Head
a mall through relevant case studies. It JLL India
also debunks the often held theory that ramesh.nair@ap.jll.com
successful malls cannot exist in close
proximity to each other.

India Retail: Stepping Up the Game 3


4 India Retail: Stepping Up the Game
Tab of contents
The Evolution of Organised Retail 6

Supply - Demand Dynamics of India Retail 8

Grade-wise Mall Vacancy 12

Factors Determining the Success of a Mall 13

Case Study: A Story of 3 Mumbai Malls Defying the Odds 18

Increase in Investor Interest in Retail 20

Way Forward 22

India Retail: Stepping Up the Game 5


The Evolution of
Organised Retail
Towards the end of the previous millennium, organised retail as a concept started
gaining traction in India.

Malls started coming up in the top Indian cities like Mumbai, Delhi and Chennai.

There was a novelty factor attached with shopping malls which led to decent footfall
right from the beginning.

The retail sector started growing at a rapid pace, and with an increase in spending
capacity among consumers, developers started sensing an opportunity and
developed malls. This led to an increase in the number of malls.

Consumers had the luxury of fulfilling all of their shopping needs – primarily Apparel,
Accessories, Food & Beverage, Electronics, etc – in air-conditioned spaces. The mall
also became a popular hang-out spot for families and youngsters alike.

‘Entertainment’ as a concept did not exist in the malls yet, which is why the older malls
are seen without any provision for cinemas and entertainment centres.

Multiplexes emerged in the first half of the 2000s after which they started occupying
space in the malls, offering a new experience to people and generating more footfall.

In 2011, net supply of malls reached a high after which there was a rationalisation in
supply in the next few years. From 2012-15, similar levels of absorption and supply
were seen.

In the past couple of years, mall management has evolved and is more focused
on experiential retail. More international brands have entered, the number of
promotional activities and events in the malls have increased, and there are also pop-
up stores to generate interest among people.

6 India Retail: Stepping Up the Game


Growth of Mall Space in India Over the Years
76
80
70
67
70
62
61
Cumulative Mall Stock in India (mn sq ft)

60 55
52

50
40
40
34
28
30
21
20 14
11
8
10 5
1 1
0
0
2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017

Source: Real Estate Intelligence Service (JLL), 1Q18

Cumulative Number 212


219 232
246

of Mall Openings
203
188
180
152
Over the Years 115
130

90
69
54
37
24
4 8
1 2 3

1995 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017

Cumulative Number of Mall Openings Source: Real Estate Intelligence Service (JLL), 1Q18

India Retail: Stepping Up the Game 7


Supply -Demand
Dynamics of Indian Retail
• 2011 witnessed record supply and quality* malls are either getting converted
absorptions of mall space in India to other use or downgraded to a Grade B
• Thereafter, there has been a slow
shopping centers.
growth of the sector due to overall GDP • This resulted in negative supply for the
slowdown and weaker consumer and first time in 2016
investor sentiment • Future years look bright with a healthy
• Recently, there has been supply pipeline and robust absorptions
rationalisationof mall space, particularly
in NCR and Mumbai Metro Region. Poor

16 25%

14

20%
12
Completions / Absorption (million sq ft)

13.8

10
10.7

15%

Vacancy (%)
8

6
7.4
6.9
6.5

10%
5.7

5.5

5.3

4
5.1
5.1

4.6
4.5

4.5
4.1
4.2

4.0

3.6

3.2
3.3

2
2.7

5%
1.6
1.3

0.8
0.3

0
2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018F 2019F 2020F
-2 0%
Net Completions Net Absorption Vacancy
Source: Real Estate Intelligence Service (JLL), 1Q18

*The malls have been graded as poor, average or superior based on the following criteria:

Vacancy Level of mall Choice of Rental/Strata


Rental Values Tenant Mix
Design management Location sale model
Levels

8 India Retail: Stepping Up the Game


India Retail: Stepping Up the Game 9
10 India Retail: Stepping Up the Game
Asset quality-wise break up
Operational mall stock from 2008 to 2012 Future supply pipeline of 5 Years (2018-2022)
~ 90 Mall projects ~ 34 mn sq ft

Average Average
35% 28%

Superior Poor Poor


46% 19% 10%
Superior
62%

The years 2013-2017 witnessed extremely low new supply


Superior Average Poor and hence are not adviseable for granular analysis.

Source: Real Estate Intelligence Service (JLL), 1Q18

More developers are maturing


• In the past, many developers entered • Developers who opted for
into the retail space and constructed appropriate locations with good
malls without precise understanding visibility and strong catchment area,
of the dynamics related to the sector. tasted success.
As a result, either the product was • Developers who invested in mall
poor which led to weak demand management and tenant mix which
for retailers or the location and are two essential factors, whereas the
catchment area was not appropriate. others who failed to the get the right
This constrained the scope for formula performed poorly.
success in these malls and became
a reason for the dichotomy that was • Developers have now learnt from their
observed in the sector. past mistakes and only experienced
players are continuing to build malls.
• Poor quality malls struggle to survive
whereas malls of superior quality • As a result the percentage of future
continue to attract demand from supply which is expected to be of
prominent retailers in both domestic superior quality is greater than in the
and international category, and existing stock
successfully draw people in.
India Retail: Stepping Up the Game 11
Grade-wise
Mall Vacancy
The differing vacancies among different grades
reiterates the point that good quality space gains
traction while poor quality assets will struggle.
Gradual rationalisation of mall space in is helping
showcase actual vacancies in cities.

50%
46%
45% 44%
45%
39%
40%
35%
35%
31%
Vacancy in operational malls

29%
30% 27%

25%
22% 22%
19% 20%
20% 18%
17%
15% 14% 14% 14%
15% 14%
12%
11% 11%
10%
10% 9%
7% 8%
7% 6% 7% 7%
5% 4%

0%
NCR Delhi Mumbai Bangalore Chennai Pune Hyderabad Kolkata India

Superior Grade Average grade Poor Grade Overall Source: Real Estate Intelligence Service (JLL), 1Q18

12 India Retail: Stepping Up the Game


3 Factors Determining the
Success of a Mall
• Mall design makes a difference with • Catering to a varied tenant mix draws in
internal ease of access, appropriate crowds to the mall with keeping visitors
positioning of stores, and strategic interested
positioning of escalators and elevators • Good mall management plays
Product • Malls which follow the lease only model
tend to perform better as it becomes
an important role
• There is generally adequate parking in
easier for asset quality control and mall most good malls
management
• Frequent events and promotional
activities improve the scope of walk-ins

CASE STUDY 1:
Viviana Mall, Thane
• In 2013, the entry of Viviana mall in Thane threatened the dominance of Korum mall which is almost half the size of
Viviana and only about a kilometer away.
• Korum responded well when its tenant mix improved by adding more F&B options. The mall brought-in Starbucks,
Burger King, and theme restaurants like Copper Pan, Woking Mama, and Panchvati Gaurav on the second floor.
• Proportion of F&B in the mall went up to 15-20% from 10-15%
• Thane market has now absorbed both the malls well. Both Korum and Viviana, are now doing good business.

CASE STUDY 2:

Select CITYWALK Mall, Delhi NCR


• Select City Walk mall commands one of the highest trading densities amongst all the malls in the country
• Over the years, the mall has essentially improved its tenant mix, as is noticed in the graphs below:

2011 2017
Select City Walk 2011 Select City Walk 2017
Occupiers Share Occupiers Share

Source: Real Estate Intelligence Service (JLL), 1Q18

India Retail: Stepping Up the Game 13


14 India Retail: Stepping Up the Game
• Size of the residential population • Accessibility is another key factor, as the
must be looked at, targeting densely mall should be conveniently located
populated areas before constructing a • All successful malls generally have
mall.
Catchment • The income profile of the target
excellent frontage and visibility
• Developers will also have to identify
catchment is another important factor whether they would like the malls to
to study before a mall comes up with a cater to people in commercial districts,
launch strategy residential districts or a mixture of both

CASE STUDY:

Xperia, Palava
• Xperia mall came into the picture in mid-2016 with much grandeur from one of the leading Real estate developers. Despite
being located in Dombivali (east) - one of the far off suburbs of Mumbai, the mall continues to transcend success with a high
footfall, primarily guaranteed by the fact that the mall is a part of a township.
• The mall adopted several anchors to make its presence felt. Various prominent brands like Van Heusen, Peter England, PVR
Cinemas, Big Bazaar, Reliance Digital, Reliance Trends and Timezone were introduced. This generated high walk-ins - both
shoppers and window shoppers.
• Since many customers visit the mall primarily for food and entertainment, Xperia kept the proportion of F&B retail high. It has a
well maintained foodcourt with a bright decor and a good mix of F&B options.

India Retail: Stepping Up the Game 15


• Shoppers are increasingly chasing • Space share of experiential retail -
experiences, not just merchandise. They restaurants, cafes, QSRs, theme-based
are also getting more tech savvy, time entertainment etc.has gone significantly
constrained, aspirational and upwardly up over last 5 years in the top malls
mobile • Experiential retail enhances repeat
• Retailers experimenting with newer visits, provides a solid moat against

Customer formats are adopting technology to


engage shoppers
e-commerce which can only offer
merchandise.

experience • Newer formats effectively use


technology for in-store experience,
• Examples include Big Bazaar Gen Next,
Van Heusen Style Studio, Benetton
faster check-out, better displays and On-Canvas Family Store, Max Millennial
digital trial rooms stores, Future Group Cover Story,
• Increasing adoption of minimalistic
Mcdonalds McCafe
store design, light-weight modular
fixtures, and focused lighting

16 India Retail: Stepping Up the Game


g)n
tro
(S
(Strong)
Above average rentals.
Highest rentals
However, despite having
in the cities. These

Impact of a strong product, they


cannot command the
highest rentals due to
malls have the
advantage of good
quality as well as a

Product, a weaker catchment


compared to the best
strong catchment.

ce
ones.

n
Catchment and

rie
pe
Ex
Experience on Rentals are lower
as compared to
better quality assets
Marginally better
rentals than assets

Mall Rental at better locations. of similar quality but


weaker catchment.
Product

(Strong)

Catchment

India Retail: Stepping Up the Game 17


A Story of 3 Mumbai Malls Defying the Odds
CASE STUDY:

A prevailing perception is that malls cannot co-exist successfully. 3 malls in Mumbai – Infiniti, Oberoi and Inorbit - have realised the
potential of the catchment and have differentiated themselves, defy this perception to make an insightful point - A strong catchment
can sustain multiple malls.

Madhukar Digambar Desh


Road

Marg
Vaidya
Gen A K
Link

Goregaon Mulund Link Road Go ink Rd.

Infiniti Mall Oberoi Mall


regaon Mulund L

Aarey Flyover
2 Km

pande Marg
Road
Goregaon Link

ad
Aarey Ro
Marol-
Maros
i Road
Chinchowali Bandar Link Road

Mahatma Gandhi Road Sonawala Road

hway ig
Express H
Srirang Sabde Marg
Prabhodhan Marg

Western

2.9 Km Ha
3.5 Km
rib
ha
g

uR
ar

up
iM

aw re Flyover
ar

ate Mrinaltai Go
kh

M
Bu

arg
r
ai flyove
din
ud
Jia

Kamalakarpant L Walawalkar Mg

Mrinalt
na

d
ula

Swami Vivekanand Roa


Ma

Service Road
Lions Sol Marg
Ma
in
oaR
d

Inorbit Mall

• As observed in the map above, the 3 malls lie within a 2-3.5 km of each other.

• Despite being in close proximity to each other, all 3 have a high footfall for their unique positioning and
location advantage.

• The number of contributing reasons are similar and unique pertaining to each mall.

18 India Retail: Stepping Up the Game


Accessibility/ Location Catchment Profile Strategies Adopted Tenant Mix

Infiniti mall is situated on Lower Middle • Known for leading CSR-based events that All 3 malls have a
the Link road (Another Income to Upper attract people from both Middle and Upper unique tenant mix
prominent road for the Middle Income Middle Income groups. from all categories
suburbs of Mumbai). This group • The mall, in association with The Street including
mall also has easy access Store (TSS), has put set up kiosks that high-end
for people living in Malad, enable mall patrons to deposit their unused brands, fashion,
Infiniti Kandivali and Goregaon. clothes, accessories that in turn help in accessories etc.
distribution to the poor and needy. with a proper mix
Mall • Infiniti mall is the only one in the area to of entertainment
have introduced an indoor roller coaster, and F&B which is
which brought in huge success in the area a critical category
of gaming and recreation. now-a-days for
the success of any
mall.
Oberoi is situated on the Middle Income Oberoi Mall has been instrumental in bringing
western highway, and to Upper Middle in many International brands like Forever
Oberoi hence provides easy access income group 21(no longer present), Forever New, Starbucks,
even to shoppers from the Aeropostale, United Colours of Benetton, Burger
Mall eastern locations like Malad, King, and Crossword, especially to the western
Goregaon and Kandivali suburbs

Inorbit mall is again situated Lower Middle • This mall is amongst the early adopters
on Link road capturing Income to Upper for omni channel supply (currently houses
nearby crowd from Malad & Middle Income 10% online and 90% offline stores)
Goregaon as well as far off group • They have introduced India’s first Omni
areas like Kandivali East and channel Online Shopping program merging
Lokhandwala Township the online shopping convenience with the
Inorbit brick & mortar space where the offer is
made on website as well as an app based
Mall feature.
• The mall has a good retail offering in terms
of price points and better products. It also
has more space allocation to F&B and
Entertainment.

India Retail: Stepping Up the Game 19


Increase in Investor Interest in Retail RE
PE funds have been very active over the last 2 years in acquiring equity/debt in retail
properties across Tier 1 and Tier 2 cities

300

250
2018 has looked
200 promising so far in
terms of interest
150
among investors
100 in acquiring retail
properties
50

0
2015 2016 2017 2018
Jan - Mar Source: Industry source

Looking at the past few years


• There has been increased private • Various new regulations like easing
equity interest in key leasehold retail foreign investment for single-brand
assets across the country. retailers, longer shopping hours and an
• A leasehold retail property usually has updated framework for establishing real
a higher probability of success as the estate investment trusts (REITs) have
developer is actively involved in the attracted the attention of various private
key functions of mall management, equity funds
especially tenant management.

20 India Retail: Stepping Up the Game


A close look on recent PE deals (2015-1Q 2018)
Year Deals

2015 • Blackstone acquires two retail assets of Alpha G:Corp in Amritsar and Ahmedabad
respectively for around INR 800 cr.

• Blackstone had bought a 1 mn sq ft retail mall (adjacent to the office tower in Seawoods),
from L&T Realty for over INR 1,400 cr.

2016 •

Blackstone bought stake in Pune- Westend mall, Aundh for INR 600 cr.
Singapore government-owned GIC bought 50 per cent stake in Viviana Mall in Thane, on
the outskirts of Mumbai, for over INR 1,000 cr.

• Virtuous Retail (Xander Group and Dutch pension fund APG retail platform), bought North
Country Mall - a retail property in Mohali, Punjab for INR 700 cr. ($109 million) from
SUN-Apollo –JJ Gumberg.

2017 • Blackstone arm bought Chandigarh’s Elante Mall (along with the office block) for an
estimated INR 2,200 cr.
• GIC bought 33% stake in DLF commercial portfolio arm for INR 8,900 cr., which included
DLF Emporio and Promenade malls in Delhi NCR.

• Phoenix, CPPIB bought L&T land for INR 650 cr. in north Bengaluru in 2018.
2018 • Blackstone bought 85% stake in Nitesh’s Pune mall for INR 300 cr.

Source: Industry sources

India Retail: Stepping Up the Game 21


Way forward
• Superior grade malls across the tend to be poorly managed strata-sold few months as long as the older
country will continue to enjoy near properties. mall takes steps like refurbishment,
100% trading occupancy, excellent • Online vs Physical stores debate is improvement in tenant mix, better
consumption and steady rental growth. a thing of the past. Consensus has access, greater engagement with the
• We will continue to see stock emerged around omni channel. local community.
consolidation. Some of the weak E-commerce companies are rolling • Shoppers are increasingly chasing
properties will divert to non-retail out physical stores and traditional recreational experiences rather than
uses like small offices, hospitals, brick-mortar retailers are making shopping alone. Malls are responding
educational, healthcare and survive. large investments in web, mobile and with greater space share allocation to
Out of the upcoming supply, the supply-chain integration. Below is a restaurants, cafes, delis, theme based
malls under the superior category quick analysis of some of the prevailing entertainment spaces, spas, cinema.
ought to do well as they have the right brands that have adopted omni • Traditional retailers too are
fundamentals. The rest might struggle. channel sales channels. responding to the change in customer
• The overwhelming majority of failed • The entry of a larger mall in a sub- preferences with new formats that
malls fail due to poor mall design, market should not adversely impact make their stores more experiential in
layout, circulation, tenant mix, and the entrenched malls beyond a contrast to the earlier focus on sale of
merchandise.

E- Commerce OMNI Traditional


Firms with channel Retailers now
Physical Retail E-Commerce
Stores enabled

Pepperfry Croma – Tatacliq.com


Lenskart ShoppersStop.com
Flipkart H&M.com
Nykaa Forever21.com
Vyolla Aditya Birla – Abof.com,
Bombay Shirt Company Trendin.com
Bigbazaardirect.com
Godrej Nature’s basket
Reliance-Ajio.com,
realiantrends.in

22 India Retail: Stepping Up the Game


• India could do with additional • Fast fashion, F&B and entertainment • Plans are already underway by many
presence of global retailers. operators again dominate leasing with global, designer private labels to enter
Strong sales performance of many superior quality malls being the main the Indian apparel and accessories
recent entrants to the market target for space. market, particularly in the luxury
and penetration of select retailer •  F&B operators remain the most active bridge-to-luxury segments.
categories beyond 7 metros presents a retailers category in India’s major high
huge untapped opportunity. streets, followed by apparel.
• Investments in retail RE over last • International brands have been
2 years dwarf the cumulative entering the country and expanding
investments made over last 5-7 years. in the past couple of years, and more
The future looks promising. are expected to look for quality space
• Landlords in India are actively across the country.
adjusting tenant mixes and placing • 100% FDI in single-brand retail
greater emphasis on the experience of may bring in more global retailers,
shopping. especially in the fast fashion category.

India Retail: Stepping Up the Game 23


Contacts
For business enquiries, contact Special Acknowledgement

Pankaj Renjhen Ashutosh Limaye


Managing Director, Retail Head, Research and REIS
+91 98992 18885 +91 98211 07054
pankaj.renjhen@ap.jll.com ashutosh.limaye@ap.jll.com

Authors

Subash Bhola Sumedh Gadgil Titikshya Sahoo


Local Director, Research Analyst, Research Analyst, Research
+91 97693 78766 +91 98927 47489 +91 75063 77403
subash.bhola@ap.jll.com sumedh.gadgil@ap.jll.com titikshya.sahoo@ap.jll.com

About JLL
JLL (NYSE: JLL) is a leading professional services firm that specializes in real estate and investment management. A Fortune 500 company, JLL helps real
estate owners, occupiers and investors achieve their business ambitions. In 2016, JLL had revenue of $6.8 billion and fee revenue of $5.8 billion and, on
behalf of clients, managed 4.4 billion square feet, or 409 million square meters, and completed sales acquisitions and finance transactions of approximately
$145 billion. At the end of the second quarter of 2017, JLL had nearly 300 corporate offices, operations in over 80 countries and a global workforce of nearly
80,000. As of June 30, 2017, LaSalle Investment Management had $57.6 billion of real estate under asset management. JLL is the brand name, and a registered
trademark, of Jones Lang LaSalle Incorporated. For further information, visit www.jll.com

JLL has over 50 years of experience in Asia Pacific, with 36,800 employees operating in 95 offices in 16 countries across the region. The firm won the ‘World’s
Best’ and ‘Best in Asia Pacific’ International Property Consultancy at the International Property Awards in 2016 and was named number one real estate
investment advisory firm in Asia Pacific for the sixth consecutive year by Real Capital Analytics and ranked among Fortune Magazine’s World’s Most Admired
Companies list third year in a row. www.ap.jll.com

About JLL, India


JLL is India’s premier and largest professional services firm specializing in real estate. With estimated revenue for FY 2017-18 expected to be ~INR 3,200 crores,
the firm is growing from strength to strength in India for over the past 20 years. JLL has an extensive geographic footprint across 10 cities (Ahmedabad, Delhi,
Mumbai, Bengaluru, Pune, Chennai, Hyderabad, Kolkata, Kochi and Coimbatore) and a staff strength of over 9,500. The firm provides investors, developers,
local corporates and multinational companies with a comprehensive range of services. This includes research, strategic advisory and consultancy, capital
markets, transaction management, project and development services, integrated facilities management, property and asset management. These services
cover various asset classes such as commercial, residential, industrial, retail, warehouse and logistics, hospitality, healthcare, senior living and education.

JLL India won the Five-Star Award for Best Property Consultancy at the International Property Awards Asia Pacific 2018 -19. The Firm was recognised as one
of the Best Places to Work in India 2017 in the annual survey of ‘India’s Best Companies to Work For’ – a joint study conducted by Great Place to Work® and
The Economic Times. It has also been acknowledged as ‘Property Consultant of the Decade’ at the 10th CNBC-Awaaz Real Estate Awards 2015. For further
information, please visit www.jll.co.in

About CII
The Confederation of Indian Industry (CII) works to create and sustain an environment conducive to the development of India, partnering industry,
Government, and civil society, through advisory and consultative processes.

CII engages closely with Government on policy issues and interfaces with thought leaders to enhance efficiency, competitiveness and business opportunities
for industry through a wide portfolio of specialized services and strategic global linkages. It also provides a platform for consensus-building and networking on
key issues. Extending its agenda beyond business, CII facilitates corporate initiatives for integrated and inclusive development across diverse domains.

The CII theme for 2017-18, India Together: Inclusive. Ahead. Responsible emphasises Industry’s role in partnering Government to accelerate India’s growth
and development. The focus will be on key enablers such as job creation; skill development and training; affirmative action; women parity; new models of
development; sustainability; corporate social responsibility, governance and transparency.

With 65 offices, including 9 Centres of Excellence, in India, and 11 overseas offices in Australia, Bahrain, China, Egypt, France, Germany, Iran, Singapore, South
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and the international business community. For further information, please visit ciiwr@cii.in

Jones Lang LaSalle Property Consultant (India) Pvt Limited © 2018. All rights reserved. All information contained herein is from sources deemed reliable; however, no
representation or warranty is made to the accuracy thereof.
24 India Retail: Stepping Up the Game