November 2017
President
Takehiko Nakao
The views expressed in this presentation are the views of the author and do not necessarily reflect the views or
policies of the Asian Development Bank Institute (ADBI), the Asian Development Bank (ADB), its Board of
Directors, or the governments they represent. ADBI does not guarantee the accuracy of the data included in this
paper and accepts no responsibility for any consequences of their use. Terminology used may not necessarily be
consistent with ADB official terms.
Azerbaijan ADB Regional Members(48 economies)
Uzbekistan Kazakhstan
Fiji
Non-Regional Members(19 countries) Vanuatu
Australia Tonga
Austria, Belgium, Canada, Denmark, Finland, France,
Germany, Italy, Ireland, Luxembourg, Netherlands,
Norway, Portugal, Spain, Sweden, Switzerland,
Turkey, United Kingdom, United States
New Zealand
2 2
Country Data (2016)
Population GDP Per capita GDP
(million) ($ billion) ($)
People’s Rep. of China 1,382.7 11,218 8,113
India 1,309.3 2,256 1,723
Indonesia 258.7 932 3,604
Pakistan 193.6 284 1,468
Bangladesh 161.5 228 1,411
Philippines 104.2 305 2,924
Viet Nam 92.6 201 2,173
Thailand 69.0 407 5,899
Myanmar 52.3 66 1,269
Republic of Korea 51.2 1,411 27,539
(reference: advanced economies)
Japan 126.9 4,939 38,917
United States 323.3 18,569 57,436
Germany 82.7 3,467 41,902
France 64.6 2,463 38,128
United Kingdom 65.6 2,629 40,096
Source: World Economic Outlook April 2017 database.
3
Growth Rate (%)
2016 2017 2018
(forecast) (forecast)
4
Developing Asia growth moderated,
but remains healthy
Real GDP Growth (y-o-y, %)
12 Developing Asia Developing Asia excluding NIEs
10 9.6
8.1
8 7.1 7.0 6.8 6.6 6.4
6.3 6.3
6
9.4
4 7.4
6.4 6.4 6.4 6.0 5.8 5.9 5.8
2
0
2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018
Forecast Forecast
NIEs=newly industrialized economies of Hong Kong, China; Rep. of Korea; Singapore; and Taipei,China.
Source: Asian Development Outlook 2017 Update.
5
Factors behind the PRC’s growth
slowdown
• Cyclical factors
Economic growth – Excess capacity in
%
some sectors
16
Retail sales – Prioritizing financial
12
sector stability
Industrial value-
• Structural factors
GDP
8 added – Rebalancing from
investment- to
4 7.9 7.8 7.3 6.9 6.7 6.7 6.8 6.9 6.9 consumption-driven
growth
0
2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 – Declining working-age
2016 2017
population
Sources: Asian Development Outlook 2017 (September
– Convergence to
2017) database; CEIC Data Company. developed economies
6
PRC shifts toward services- and
consumption-driven economy
0 3.7 1.7 0
2010 2016 2010 2016
10
Annual Approvals of Loans and Grants
Ordinary Capital Resources (OCR) and Asian Development Fund Operations (ADF)
($ billion)
20.0
17.5
18.0 16.3
15.8
16.0 14.2
13.7 13.9 13.1 13.5
14.0
12.0 11.1 11.3
10.0
8.1
8.0 6.3
6.0
4.0
2.0
0.0
2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016
Note: Figures reported in gross approval basis include loans, grants, equity investments, and guarantees.
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ADB Operations
Ordinary Capital Resources (OCR) and Asian Development Fund Operations (ADF)
Approvals ($17.5 billion in 2016)
By Country By Sector
Water
9% (11%)
Public
Others Sector
India Management
26% (31%)
18% (16%) 11% (10%)
Finance
12% (16%) Agriculture
7% (5%)
PRC Education
12% (13%) 4% (4%)
Viet Nam Transport Health
4% (6%) 23% (17%) Industry and 2% (2%)
Trade
Philippines ICT
Azerbaijan 5% (0.5%)
5% (5%) 1% (1%)
10% (2%)
Bangladesh
6% (7%) Energy
Pakistan Indonesia 26% (33%)
9% (11%) 10% (8%)
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ADB Operational Activities
- Approvals ($ million) -
2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016
Loans and Grants*
Sovereign 9,760 9,421 14,024 11,809 11,752 11,300 12,611 11,610 13,655 14,960
Non-
sovereign 1,321 1,913 1,735 1,846 2,106 1,841 1,602 1,919 2,626 2,502
Subtotal 11,081 11,335 15,758 13,655 13,858 13,141 14,213 13,529 16,280 17,462
Technical
Assistance 154 190 203 175 148 151 156 159 141 169
Cofinancing 759 1,678 4,978 5,462 7,695 8,272 6,648 9,222 10,735 14,061
Total
Operations 11,993 13,203 20,939 19,293 21,700 21,564 21,017 22,909 27,157 31,692
* Figures reported in gross approval basis include loans, grants, equity investments, and guarantees.
Numbers may not sum precisely due to rounding
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ADB Operational Activities
- OCR and ADF Disbursements ($ million) -
2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016**
Loans and Grants*
Sovereign 6,423 8,098 9,997 7,201 7,516 8,080 7,779 8,962 10,773 10,737
Non-
sovereign 606 725 507 865 792 615 924 1,229 1,567 1,743
Total 7,030 8,823 10,503 8,066 8,309 8,695 8,703 10,191 12,340 12,480
*Figures include loans, ADF grants, guarantees, and equity investments, but do not include technical assistance,
other special funds and cofinancing. Numbers may not sum precisely due to rounding.
Source: Controller’s Department, ADB.
.
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Organization Chart of ADB (as of June 2017) ADB Institute
Independent
Governors Office of the Ombudsperson
Evaluation
Department Office of the Auditor
Board of General
Vice President Vice President Vice President Vice President Vice President Vice President
(Operations 1) (Operations 2) (Knowledge Mgmt. & (Finance & Risk (Administration & (Private Sector &
Sustainable Dev’t) Management) Corporate Mgmt.) Cofinancing Ops.)
South Asia East Asia Sustainable Dev’t. & Controller’s Operations Services & Private Sector
Department (2) Department (2) Climate Change Dept.
Department Financial Mgmt. Dept. Operations Department
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Remaining and New Challenges
in Asia and the Pacific
17
Poverty in ADB Developing Member Countries
$1.9/day (2011 PPPs) $3.1/day (2011 PPPs)
No. of Poverty Share of No. of Poverty Share of
Population Poor Incidence World Poor Incidence World
(million) (million) (%) Poor (%) (million) (%) Poor (%)
3,138
1,143 36.4 67.5 2,101 67.0 71.1
1999 (52%)*
3,381
812 24.0 61.2 1,788 52.9 67.8
2005 (52%)*
3,604
467 13.0 49.3 1,359 37.7 62.0
2011 (51%)
3,641
435 12.0 49.4 1,327 36.4 63.4
2012 (51%)*
3,678
330 9.0 43.0 1,173 31.9 60.7
2013 (51%)*
Note: *Ratio to the world population (6,049 million in 1999; 6,520 million in 2005; 7,013 million in 2011; 7,098
million in 2012; 7,182 in 2013).
Source: ADB estimates based on World Bank’s PovcalNet data for 34 DMCs (downloaded October 4, 2016).
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Infrastructure investment needs, 2016–2030
($ billion in 2015 prices, annual average)
19
Infrastructure investment needs by sector,
2016–2030 ($ billion in 2015 prices, annual average)
21
Role for MDBs
22
Key messages:
Attracting PPPs and strengthening capital markets
• Strengthen regulatory and institutional framework to
generate a pipeline of bankable projects for PPP
23
ADB TO DOUBLE ANNUAL CLIMATE FINANCING
TO $6 BILLION FOR ASIA-PACIFIC BY 2020
(announced on 25 September 2015)
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“Asian Century” Scenario
(global GDP composition)
<Source: “Asia 2050”, which is a study in 2011 commissioned by ADB>
North America
North America 13%
27% Asia
52%
Europe
Europe 18%
26%
Asia’s GDP: $24 trillion (market FX rate) Asia’s GDP: $174 trillion (market FX rate)
Asia’s per capita GDP: $12,000 (PPP) Asia’s per capita GDP: $40,800 (PPP)
Population (billion) and Share (%)
2016 2050
Asia 4.12 (55%) 4.76 (52%)
World 7.44 (100%) 9.15 (100%)
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Asian Share of World GDP
70%
60%
50%
40%
30%
20%
10%
0%
1700 1820 1870 1913 1950 1970 1980 1995 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050
Source: Asia 2050: Realizing the Asian Century
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Eight Conditions for Economic Development
- Op-ed by President Nakao, Nikkei Asian Review (Feb 5, 2015) -
1. Infrastructure investment
2. Investment in health and education
3. Macroeconomic stability
4. Open trade and investment regimes: including streamlining
regulatory framework and reforming sate-owned enterprises
5. Public governance: anti-corruption, efficiency of delivering
services and quality of regulations
6. Inclusiveness and sustainability: sharing development fruits,
gender equality, environment, and climate change
7. Vision for the future
8. Political stability, security, and good relations with
neighboring countries
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