AST 305 LECTURE 16 29.03.

2018
MEASURES OF
FERTILITY/REPRODUCTIVITY/STABLE POPN
Shryock .(condensed ed). Ch 16-18)
J. S. Siegel and D A Swanson. (2nd Ed , Ch 15-17 pp
429-437)
Chapter 16. Natality:Measures based on Vital
Statistics
Natality, births, fertility: the three terms have
alternative and overlapping meaning.
Fertility : It is indicated by the actual performance
of live births. Behavioural aspect
Fecundity: Physiological capacity to bear children.
Potential aspect.
Sterility: Unable to produce live birth.
live birth, still birth
Living Children: Mean number of living children.
Children Ever Born(CEB): Mean number of children
ever born per 1000 women.
Ideal family size: Opinion about ideal number of
children.
Desired family size : Intentions, preferences about
number of children- Psychological aspects.
Wanted fertility:
Unwanted fertility:

Crude Birth Rate(CBR): The number of live births

𝐵
per 1000 mid-year population = (K=1000)
𝑃

General Fertility Rate(GFR), = Number of live births

per 1000 female population in the reproductive age
Group
𝐵
GFR = (K=1000)
𝑃15−44)
Age Specific Fertility Rates= Number of live births
per 1000 female population in a given age group of
women
𝐵𝑎
ASFR = (K=1000)
𝑃𝑎𝑓

Age Specific Fertility Rate BDHS 2014

Age of Women ASFR/1000 Women
15-19 113
20-24 143
25-29 110
30-34 57
35-39 25
40-44 4
45-49 5

TFR 2.3/per woman

Age Order Specific Fertility Rates = Number of live

births of a given order i per 1000 female population
in a given age group of women
𝐵𝑎𝑖
= (K=1000)
𝑃𝑎𝑖𝑓

Marital Fertility Rate: When the base population is

restricted to married or ever married women.
Chapter 17: Natality:Measures based on Censuses
and Surveys.
Child-Woman Ratio = Number of children per 1000
feamle in the reproductive age group
𝑃0−4
Child-Woman Ratio = (K=1000)
𝑃15−49𝑓

Living Children: Mean number of living children.

Ideal Children Ever Born(CEB): Mean number of
children ever born per 1000 women.
Chapter 18: Reproductivity (Chapter 17 in 2nd ed)
The study of reproductivity is concerned with the
extent to which a group is replacing its own
numbers by natural processes. Measures of
reproductivity or population replacement are the
measures of natural increase expressed in terms of
generation rather than a year or other brief period
of time. The group may be true or synthetic birth
cohort or a true or synthetic marriage cohort. The
analysis of reproductrivity has led mathematical
demographers to the conecpt of stable population
and its vital measures.
Measures of Reproductivity: [2nd Ed, Chapter 17 :
pp 429-437]
a) The Crude Rate of Natural Increase(CRNI):
𝐵−𝐷
CRNI = (K=1000), B= Births, D= Deaths
𝑃

(CBR – CDR)(K=1000)
Vital Index, a term given by Raymond Pearl
𝐵
VI = (K=100)
𝐷
b) Total Fertility Rate(TFR): The total fertility
rate states the number of births 1000 women
would have if they experienced a given set of
age specific birth rates throughout their
reproductive span(15-49). Theoretically it is a
cohort approach. It gives the average total live
birth a cohort of women will bear.

In practice, it is obtained by summing the age

specific birth rates:
 𝐵𝑥
TFR = ∑𝑤2
𝑤1 𝑃𝑥𝑓

𝐵𝑥
TFR = ∑49
15 𝑃𝑥𝑓

𝐵𝑖
Or TFR = 5 ∑71
𝑃𝑖𝑓

Reproduction Rates:

Gross Reproduction Rate.

Gross Reproduction Rate(GRR): The Gross

Reproduction Rate states the number of female
births 1000 women would have if they
experienced a given set of age specific birth
rates throughout their reproductive span(15-
49). Theoretically it is a cohort approach. It
gives the average total female live birth a
cohort of women will bear.
In practice, it is obtained by summing the age
specific birth rates restricted to female live
births

𝐵𝑓 𝐵𝑥
GRR = ∑𝑤2
𝑤1
𝐵𝑡 𝑃𝑥𝑓

𝐵𝑓 𝐵𝑥
GRR = ∑49
15
𝐵𝑡 𝑃𝑥𝑓

𝐵𝑓 𝐵𝑖
Or GRR = 5 ∑71
𝐵𝑡 𝑃𝑖𝑓

Net Reproduction Rate (NRR).

The Net repropuction rate(NRR) is a measure of

the number of daughters that a cohort of
newborn girl babies will bear during their
lifetime assuming fixed schedule of age specific
fertility rates and fixed set of mortality rates.
Thus the net reproduction rate is a measure of
the extent of which a cohort of newly born girls
replace themselves under given schedule of age
specific fertility and mortality. Some girls will
die before attaining the age of reproduction,
others will die during the reproductive span,
and others will live to complete their
reproductive life.

𝐵𝑓 𝐵𝑥 𝐿𝑥
NRR = ∑𝑤2
𝑤1
𝐵𝑡 𝑃𝑥𝑓 𝑙0

𝐵𝑓 𝐵𝑥 𝐿𝑥
NRR = ∑49
15
𝐵𝑡 𝑃𝑥𝑓 𝑙0

𝐵𝑓 𝐵𝑖 5𝐿𝑥
Or NRR = 5 ∑71
𝐵𝑡 𝑃𝑖𝑓 5 𝑙0

𝐵𝑓 𝐵𝑖 5𝐿𝑥
Or NRR = ∑71
𝐵𝑡 𝑃𝑖𝑓 𝑙0

When NRR= 1, population will be replaced by

the present size.
When NRR < 1, population will be replaced by a
smaller size

When NRR>1, population will be replaced by a

larger size.

What does a value of NRR= 1.10 indicate ?

What does a value of NRR= 0.95 indicate ?

[Display Differential Fertility]

Stable Population.
 Shryock. Chapter 18. The Stable Population:Its
vital Rates and Other Characteristics.
Pp 316-320.

A. J. Lotka demonstrated in 1907 that if a

population is subjected to
1) fixed(constant) schedule of age specific
fertility rates
2) fixed (constant) schedule of age specific
mortality rates and
3) there is no migration(closed population)
over an indefinite period of time, ultimately the
population would assume a fixed characteristic
distribution. Coale(1968) has estimated the time
required for attaining such stable form.
Lotka in 1925 proved that a closed population with
constant age specific fertility and mortality
schedules would eventually have a constant rate of
natural increase. Lotka called this rate ‘true rate of
natural increase’. It has also been called the
‘intrinsic rate of natural increase’ or ‘implicit rate of
natural increase’.
Intrinsic rate of natural increase.
Lotka computed the true rate of natural increase
by solving the equation
∞
∫0 𝑒 − 𝑟𝑥 𝑓 (𝑥 )𝑝(𝑥 )𝑑𝑥 = 1
(1)
Where p(x) probability of surviving from birth to
age x, p(x) = lx/l0 from life table.
r intrinsic rate of natural increase per head per
annum
f(x) number of female births per annum to each
woman of age x, i.e. age specific fertility rate
restricted to female births.
Since f(x) is zero outside the child bearing
period, we could substitute the limits w1 and w2 or
approximately 15 to 49 as the limit of the integral.
In practice, a very close approximation to the real
root of equation (1) is given by the quadratic
equation
1
β r2 + αr – lnR0 = 0 (2)
2

𝑅1
Where α =
𝑅2
𝑅2 𝑅1 𝑅2
β= α 2 – = ( )2 - (3)
𝑅0 𝑅2 𝑅0

R0 is the net reproduction rate(0th moment), R1

and R2 are the 1st and 2nd moments of the curve
representing the age schedule of net
reproductivity. The general equation for these
moment is given by

∞
Rn = ∫0 𝑥 𝑛 𝑓(𝑥 )𝑝(𝑥 )𝑑𝑥 (4)

Solving the quadratic equation (2) for r, we obtain

for the positive radical, which corresponds to the
real root
 −𝛼+ √(α2 + 2𝛽𝑙𝑛𝑅0 )
𝑟= (5)
𝛽

And substituting for α and β in terms of R0, R1 and

R2, we obtain as given by Kuczynski
𝑅1 𝑅1 𝑅2 𝑅1
− ( )2− 2[ − ( )2 𝑙𝑛𝑅𝑜
𝑅𝑜 𝑅0 𝑅0 𝑅0
𝑟= 𝑅2 𝑅1 ] (6)
− ( )2
𝑅0 𝑅0

Mean Length of Generation.

The mean length of generation is defined as the
mean age of mothers at the birth of their
daughters. Since the stable population is growing at
the annual rate of r, compounded continuously
and the net reproduction rate R0 is its rate of
growth in one generation, T years, we may have

𝑅0 = 𝑒 𝑟𝑇 (7)

𝑇 = 1/𝑟 𝑙𝑛𝑅0 (8)

𝑆𝑖𝑛𝑐𝑒 𝑓𝑟𝑜𝑚 (2) 𝑙𝑛𝑅0 = 1/2𝛽 𝑟 2 + 𝛼𝑟 (9)

𝑇 = 𝛼 + 1/2𝛽𝑟 (10)
 𝑇 = 𝛼 + 1/2𝛽𝑟

𝐼𝑓 𝑅0 = 1, 𝑟 =0
𝑅0 > 1, 𝑟>0
𝑅0 < 1 𝑟<0

Intrinsic birth rate.

The true or intrinsic birth rate is the birth rate that
would eventually be reached in population
subjected to fixed schedule of fertility and
mortality. The intrinsic birth rate may be expressed
by the equation

1
b= ∞ (11)
∫0 𝑒−𝑟𝑥 𝑝(𝑥 )𝑑𝑥
where b is intrinsic birth rate per head per annum.

A satisfactory approximation to equation (11) may

be obtained as
 1
b= ∞ 1 𝐿𝑥 (12)
∫0 𝑒−𝑟(𝑥+2)
𝑙𝑜

Intrinsic death rate:

The intrinsic death rate is the difference
between the intrinsic birth rate and intrinsic
rate of natural increase.
d= b – r
Stable Age distribution:
The proportion of females within the age
interval x to
x + dx may be expressed as
𝐶(𝑥) = 𝑏 𝑒 – 𝑟𝑥 𝑝(𝑥)

𝐸𝑥𝑎𝑚𝑝𝑙𝑒: 𝑇𝑎𝑏𝑙𝑒 18 − 3 𝑎𝑛𝑑 𝑇𝑎𝑏𝑙𝑒 18 − 4:

𝐶𝑜𝑚𝑝𝑢𝑡𝑎𝑡𝑖𝑜𝑛 𝑜𝑓 𝑖𝑛𝑡𝑟𝑖𝑛𝑠𝑖𝑐 𝑏𝑖𝑟𝑡ℎ 𝑎𝑛𝑑 𝑑𝑒𝑎𝑡ℎ 𝑟𝑎𝑡𝑒𝑠
𝑎𝑛𝑑 𝑡ℎ𝑒 𝑎𝑔𝑒 𝑑𝑖𝑠𝑡𝑟𝑖𝑏𝑢𝑡𝑖𝑜𝑛 𝑜𝑓 𝑠𝑡𝑎𝑏𝑙𝑒
Population for Peru, 1961.
Calculation of intrinsic rate of natural increase.
 Table 17.3 and 17.4 92nd ed)

Semi-Stable and Quasi-Stable Population.

In the first place, there is another theoretical concept,
which relates to populations with unchanging age
structures. Such populations possess some of the
properties of a stable population, and there are many
actual examples of them in the world, at least as a
first approximation. It can be demonstrated that there
are, at all times, in such populations the same
relations among fertility, mortality and age structure
as in a stable population.
Consequently, so far as any phenomena involving
age structure and its relations to mortality and
fertility are concerned, populations with constant age
structures can be assimilated to stable populations.
'In order to express the fact that populations with
unchanging age structures possess only some of the
properties of stable populations, they have been
given the name of semi-stable populations. Many
actual populations have age structures which, while
not absolutely unchanging, change only slightly, and
thus the concept of stable populations, which
appeared at first to be a mathematical concept
scarcely encountered in reality, becomes, through
the theory of semi-stable populations, a familiar and
common tool in population analysis. Most
populations of developing countries, or almost three-
quarters of the world population, may be considered
semi-stable.

Quasi-stable population.
For population where fertility remains
unchanged(constant), while mortality keeps varying,
the age structure changes only slightly; such
population have been given the name of quasi-stable
population. Roughly speaking, they may be
considered to represent a particular case of semi-
stable population.
Differences among Stationary, stable and
quasi-stable population.

Stationary Stable Quasi-stable

Population Population population
1. The CBR 1.The CBR and 1.TheCBR
and CDR CDR are remains
are constant but constant over
constant not equal over time but CDR
over time time has been
and exactly falling
equal
2. The intrinsic 2.The intrinsic 2. The intrinsic
growth rate growth rate is growth rate r
r =0 constant over is
time approximately
constant
3. Stationary 3. Stable 3. Quasi-stable
population population population
does not steadily steadily
increase or increase increase
decrease
TABLE 17.2 Computation of Gross and Net Reproduction Rates for New Zealand:
1996

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Age of age -specific birth survival
Number of
Mothers
(years) Rate per female rate
births
fT
(1) x (2) =

(1) (2) (3)

------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

15–19 0.03301 4.94560 0.16327

20–24 0.08031 4.93198 0.39610
25–29 0.11825 4.91951 0.58174
30–34 0.10404 4.90505 0.51031
35–39 0.04403 4.88659 0.21516
40–44 0.00790 4.86117 0.03842
45–49 0.00041 4.81951 0.00198
Sum 0.38796 X 1.90698
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
GRR = 5(.48551)(0.38796) = 0.94179
NRR or Ro = (.48551)(1.90698)= 0.92586.
Here proportion of female birth = .48551
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
X Not applicable.
1 Also allows for 5-year grouping of ages.
Source: Based on Table 17.1. The life tables used here were taken from
Cheung, 1999.
TABLE 17.3 Calculation of Intrinsic Rate of Increase (r), New Zealand: 1996
- Products

--------------------------------------------------------------------

Annual births f Zero First Second

of daughters Pivotal 5Lx /lo
moment moment moment
Age of mother per female (midpoint)
age (R0) (R1) (R2)
x to x + 4 5Fx (1) x (3) (2) x (4) 2)x (5)

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

(years) (1) (2) (3) (4) (5) (6)

---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
15–19 . 01603 17.5 4.94560 .07927 1.38723 24.27650
20–24 03899 22.5 4.93198 .19231 4.32700 97.35751
25–29 .05741 27.5 4.91951 . 28244 7.76712 213.5957
30–34 .05051 32.5 4.90505 .24776 8.05219 261.6963
35–39 .02138 37.5 4.88659 .10446 3.91728 146.8981
40–44 00384 42.5 4.86117 .01865 0.79280 33 .69404
45–49 .00020 47.5 4.81951 00096 0.04568 2.16999
Sum . .18836 (X) (X) .92586 26.28931 779.6882

----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Substituting the values for R0, R1, and R2 in equation (17.16), we obtain48551 1 90698 0 92586

GRR= 5 ∑col( 1) = 5x .188836= 0.94179

NRR= Ro = ∑col( 4) 0.92586
R1 = ∑col( 5) = 26.28931
R2 =∑col( 6) =779.6882

𝑅1
α= = 28.39451
𝑅2

𝑅2
β= α 2 – =-35.8761
𝑅0

ln R0 = -.07703
 Substituting the values of Ro R1 and R2
In equation (6) we obtain r=- .00271

TABLE 17.4 Computation of the Intrinsic Birth and Death Rates, and the Age
Distribution, of the Stable Population, for New Zealand: 1996
f m Stable population
(x + 2.5) e-r(x+2.5) 5Lx /lo female stable 5Lx /lo Male stable
Female Male
or or population population
Age interval Midpoint -.00271(x + 2.5) derivative derivative
(x to x + 4, (x + 2.5) -.00271 x (1) = (3) \ (4) = (3) \ (6) =
in years) (1) (2) (3) (4) (5) (6) (7) (8) (9)
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

0–4 2.5 -.00677 1.00679 4.96599 4.99972 5.25703 5.29274 2,827 2,992
5–9 7.5 -.02031 1.02052 4.95905 5.06080 5.24730 5.35496 2,861 3,027
10–14 12. 5 -.03385 1.03443 4.95513 5.12573 5.24128 5.42173 2,898 3,065
15–19 17.5 -.04739 1.04853 4.94560 5.18561 5.22453 5.47808 2,932 3,097
20–24 22.5 -.06093 1.06282 4.93198 5.24183 5.18664 5.51249 2,963 3,116
25–29 27.5 -.07447 1.07731 4.91951 5.29985 5.14570 5.54353 2,996 3,134
30–34 32.5 -.08801 1.09200 4.90505 5.35631 5.10912 5.57915 3,028 3,154
35–39 37.5 -.10155 1.10689 4.88659 5.40889 5.07400 5.61634 3,058 3,175
40–44 42.5 -.11509 1.12197 4.86117 5.45411 5.03314 5.64705 3,083 3,193
45–49 47.5 -.12863 1.13727 4.81951 5.48108 4.97399 5.65677 3,099 3,198
50– 54 52.5 -.14217 1.15277 4.74775 5.47308 4.87195 5.61625 3,094 3,175
55–59 57.5 -.15571 1.16849 4.63715 5.41845 4.70608 5.49899 3,063 3,109
60–64 62.5 -.16925 1.18442 4.47209 5.29682 4.44116 5.26018 2,995 2,974
65–69 67.5 -.18279 1.20056 4.22438 5.07163 4.02992 4.83817 2,867 2,735
70–74 72.5 -.19633 1.21693 3.85871 4.69577 3.44902 4.19721 2,655 2,373
75–79 77.5 -.20987 1.23352 3.33681 4.11601 2.67425 3.29873 2,327 1,865
80–84 82.5 -.22341 1.25033 2.58634 3.23379 1.75868 2.19894 1,828 1,243
85–89 87.5 -.23695 1.26738 1.64461 2.08434 0.89992 1.14054 1,178 645
90 + 95.0 -.25726 1.29338 0.95634 1.23691 0.37955 0.49090 699 278
\Sum 89.24075 (X) 87.64277 50,452 49,548

Bf = .001121, df= .01392 bm= .01209 dm =.01480

Bt= .001164 dt= .01435 , r= -.22271