Foundations of Futures Studies Volume 1 –

Wendell Bell
(For these notes - these are all Wendell Bell’s textual words, unless otherwise stated).

Chapter 2 – Purposes of Futures Studies

General purpose of Futures Studies – To maintain or improve the freedom and welfare of
humankind, and some futurists would add the welfare of all living beings, plants, and the Earth's
biosphere for their own sakes even beyond what is required for human well-being.

Distinctive feature – Prospective thinking, which aims to contribute to well-being of presently living
people and of future generations.

Alternative futures – The possible, the probable and the preferable.

Specific purpose of the discipline of Futures Studies – To discover or invent, examine and evaluate,
and propose possible, probable and preferable futures.

 The possible – What can or could be. Toffler says these include “new, alternative images”
and “visionary explorations”.
 The probable – What is likely to happen. Toffler says these involve “systematic
investigations”.
 The preferable – What ought to be. Toffler says these require a “moral evaluation”.

Envisioning alternative future political, economic, or social arrangements almost always involves
questioning the existing arrangements of society. (…) Thus, the futurist qua (in the capacity of/ as
being a) futurist has a right, if not an obligation, to work for a political and social order within which
futures studies can be carried out, within the limits of respect for human dignity and the protections
of the rights of human subjects of research.

Another purpose – Educating people about the principles of futures studies. (…) Futurists aim to
educate, too, as they attempt to promote greater futures consciousness among individuals
throughout society and to futurize the thinking of other people, including professionals.

Futures Studies has 9 major tasks, which are described below:

1) The study of possible futures

The study of possible futures involves trying to look at the present in new and different ways (…). It
involves creative and lateral thinking in order to see realities to which others are blind. It involves
thinking of present problems as opportunities and present obstacles and limitations as
transcendable. It involves not only asking what is, but also asking what could be. It involves, most of
all, expanding human (individual and social) choice.
Present capacities of individuals, groups, and society as a whole for change and development, no
matter how suppressed and unrecognized they may be, are factual. The potential for future
development and growth exists in the present and, thus, can be investigated.

Joshua’s comment, based on Bell’s insight: For a situation to go from A to B, the possibility of going
from A to B must exist in A.

Dispositionals – The study of present capacities / potentials for something to evolve from one point
in the present to another point in the future.

Conventional thinking prevents efforts to explore unorthodox possibilities for the future (…) that
also operates on every organizational and institutional setting.

Joshua’s comment, based on Bell’s insight: Futurists should be wary of rejecting any idea out of
hand, because some ideas do not fit the conventional wisdom and the established patterns of
thinking and can come off as foolish, when they can have a great impact If done and implemented
correctly.

Two ways to err – Believing that things are possible when they are really impossible or, on the other
hand, believing that things are impossible when they are really possible. When we try the impossible
and fail, we often learn. When we don't try because we believe something is impossible when, in
fact, it is possible, we do not test our false beliefs, which become self-limiting and impede learning.

2)