Probability and
Statistics
GEC410-Probability and Statistics Module 1 Lecture
II
Module 1 Lecture II
By
Dr. S. O. Edeki
Department of
By Mathematics,
Covenant
University, Nigeria.
Dr. S. O. Edeki
Department of Mathematics, Covenant University,
Nigeria.
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GEC410-
Definition: Conditional Probability Probability and
Statistics
Module 1 Lecture
II
Let A and B be two events ( not necessarily from the same
experiment, the conditional probability of A given that B has
already occurred, written as P(A, givenB) or P(A | B) is By
defined as:
Dr. S. O. Edeki
Department of
Mathematics,
P(A ∩ B) Covenant
P(A | B) = , P(B) > 0. University, Nigeria.
P(B)
P(A ∩ B)
P(B | A) = , P(A) > 0.
P(A)
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GEC410-
Definition: Dependent (Independent) Events Probability and
Statistics
Module 1 Lecture
II
P(A | B) = P(A)
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GEC410-
Remarks & examples on independent events Probability and
Statistics
Module 1 Lecture
II
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GEC410-
Exercise: independent events Probability and
Statistics
Module 1 Lecture
II
By
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GEC410-
Examples: Conditional Probability Probability and
Statistics
Module 1 Lecture
II
Let M, R, C , and F be certain events with the detail in the
table below:
By
R C
Dr. S. O. Edeki
M 7 5 12 Department of
Mathematics,
F 3 10 13 Covenant
University, Nigeria.
10 15 25
3 2 3
(i) , (ii) , (iii)
25 5 10
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GEC410-
Examples: Conditional Probability Probability and
Statistics
Module 1 Lecture
II
By
Example 1
Dr. S. O. Edeki
In a particular clinic, a lab attendant attended to 100 Department of
patients with the following detail: for the male patients, 40 Mathematics,
Covenant
are tall while 30 are short. For the female patients, 20 are University, Nigeria.
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GEC410-
Ex: Conditional Probability Probability and
Statistics
Module 1 Lecture
II
Example/Classwork 2:
By
Let the accommodation status of students be classified as
either ‘resident’ or ‘off campus’. Out of a group of 25 Dr. S. O. Edeki
students, 7 are male ‘residents’, 10 are female ‘off campus’ Department of
Mathematics,
and 12 are males. Calculate the probability that a name Covenant
University, Nigeria.
chosen at random from a list of these students is that of:
(i) A female resident.
(ii) A resident.
(iii) A female, given that the student is ‘resident’.
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GEC410-
Ex: Conditional Probability Probability and
Statistics
Module 1 Lecture
II
By
Ex/ classwork 3
The probability that a man is in his office when a salesman Dr. S. O. Edeki
Department of
calls is 0.6. Given that the man is in his office when the Mathematics,
Covenant
salesman calls, the probability that he makes a purchase is University, Nigeria.
0.4. What is the probability that the man is in his office and
makes a purchase when the salesman calls?
Ans: 0.24
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GEC410-
Bayes Theorem Probability and
Statistics
Module 1 Lecture
II
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GEC410-
Bayes Theorem Probability and
Statistics
Module 1 Lecture
II
Examples on Bayes Theorem
1 (i) In a certain system factory, machines A, B and C
manufacture 25, 35 and 40 percent of the total output By
Module 1 Lecture
A computer program generates random questions in II
arithmetic that children have to answer within a fixed time.
The probability of the first question being answered correctly
is 0.8. Whenever a question is answered correctly, the next By
Module 1 Lecture
II
By
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GEC410-
Random variable and Probability Distribution Probability and
Statistics
Module 1 Lecture
II
variable.
Dr. S. O. Edeki
Mathematically, X : S → R. Department of
Mathematics,
Thus, a probability distribution gives the probability of each Covenant
University, Nigeria.
possible value of a variable.
Probability distribution ( function) is of TWO types
depending on the nature of the random variable.
Hence: For discrete random variable, we have probability
mass function (pmf), and probability density function (pdf)
for continuous random variable.
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GEC410-
Constructing probability distribution Probability and
Statistics
Module 1 Lecture
II
By
Example: If two coins are tossed once, the associated sample
space is: Dr. S. O. Edeki
Department of
Mathematics,
Covenant
University, Nigeria.
S = {HH, HT , TH, TT }.
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GEC410-
Properties of p.m.f Probability and
Statistics
Module 1 Lecture
II
By
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GEC410-
Example 1: Properties of p.m.f Probability and
Statistics
Module 1 Lecture
II
Let X be a discrete random variable with the following
probability distribution:
By
X=x -3 -2 -1 0 1
P(X=x) 0.1 0.25 0.3 0.15 c Dr. S. O. Edeki
Department of
Mathematics,
Covenant
Find: University, Nigeria.
a The value of c.
b P(−3 ≤ X < 0)
c P(X > −1)
d P(−1 < X < 1)
Ans: (a)0.2 (b) 0.65 (c) 0.35 (d) 0.15 .
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GEC410-
Ex: Properties of p.m.f Probability and
Statistics
Module 1 Lecture
II
Suppose the random variable X has values 1, 2, 3... and that
1 By
P(X = Xi ) = , i = 1, 2, 3, ...
2i
. Dr. S. O. Edeki
Department of
Mathematics,
a Verify that pi is a legitimate pmf. Covenant
University, Nigeria.
b Compute the probability that X is even.
c Compute P(X ≥ 3).
1 1
(a)sum to be 1, (b) , (c)
3 4
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GEC410-
Examples of discrete distributions Probability and
Statistics
Module 1 Lecture
II
By
Examples of discrete density function are:
Dr. S. O. Edeki
Bernoulli trials, Department of
Mathematics,
Binomial distribution, Covenant
University, Nigeria.
Poisson distribution,
Geometric distribution and so on.
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GEC410-
The pmf discrete r.v I Probability and
Statistics
Module 1 Lecture
II
1 Bernoulli distribution
By
p k q n−k ,
k = 0, 1
P(X = k) = p(k) =
0, otherwise. Dr. S. O. Edeki
Department of
Mathematics,
Covenant
2 Binomial distribution (X ∼ b(n, p)) University, Nigeria.
n
Ck p k q n−k , k = 0, 1, 2, ...
P(X = k) = p(k) =
0, otherwise.
Note p + q = 1
For the binomial distribution:
Mean = np
Variance = npq.
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GEC410-
The pmf discrete r.v II Probability and
Statistics
Module 1 Lecture
II
By
3 Poisson Distribution
Dr. S. O. Edeki
λk e −λ Department of
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GEC410-
Continuous random variable Probability and
Statistics
Module 1 Lecture
II
By
A random variable X is continuous if there exists a Riemann
integrable function f (x) satisfying the following conditions: Dr. S. O. Edeki
Department of
i f (x) > 0 ∀x ∈ R Mathematics,
R∞ Covenant
University, Nigeria.
ii −∞ f (x)dx = 1
iii for all a, b ∈ R, ∃a
R b< b, s. t.
P(a ≤ x ≤ b) = a f (x)dx.
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GEC410-
References Probability and
Statistics
Module 1 Lecture
II
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