Africa Core
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Africa has regained stability
The Nation 4/17/2010 (April 17 2010 http://www.nation.co.ke/News/africa/Nigeria%20stable%20for
%20now/-/1066/901338/-/m1vev1/-/index.html
After months of political turbulence, Nigeria, Africa’s most populous nation, has regained
relative stability and swept aside the immediate risk of chaos or even a coup, observers say . Next
year’s presidential elections, with all their attendant problems and numerous stakes, are now the next greatest challenge facing Africa’s
premier oil exporter, they said. “I would rule out the possibility of a coup now... the
country is now a bit stable,” said
Bayo Okunade, political scientist at Nigeria’s premier University of Ibadan. “We cannot compare where we
are now with where we were three months ago. That was a very dark period ,” he said. Analysts said that
Nigeria, with a history of successive military coups d’etat up till 1999, was spared another one after President Umaru Yar’Adua,
After two and a
suffering from an acute heart ailment, was hospitalised late last year for more than 90 days in Saudi Arabia.
half months of political vacuum, the parliament on February 9 voted Yar’Adua’s deputy, Goodluck
Jonathan, into office as acting president, a post that was confirmed when Yar’Adua returned to Nigeria on February 24.
Yar’Adua has neither been seen in public since November nor is his state of health known. Jonathan, who has assumed power since
February, has now appointed his own advisers and ministers and was this week guest of US President Barack Obama in Washington, in
his maiden foreign visit. The probability of a coup “has increased lately,” according to an expert on Nigeria at the French Research
Institute for Development, Marc-Antoine Perouse de Montclos. And even though the risk has “diminished” in recent weeks, “it can not
be ruled out” he said. Ishola Williams, a retired army major general, disagreed. “The
army is one of the most ethnically
balanced institutions. Every single ethnic group is in the military . So, to have a consensus to
make a coup d’etat, the situation would need to be very bad. “We haven’t got to such a situation
now,” he told AFP. “The military wouldn’t attempt anything right now,” said Williams, former head
of Transparency International in Nigeria . “There is some political stability now... The test will come as
we move towards the elections,” he added. Jonathan should demonstrate his capacity to put in place the long-awaited electoral
reforms ahead of the 2011 presidential poll and tackle Nigeria’s national cankerworm, corruption, Williams said. Jonathan’s ability to
consolidate a fragile peace in the oil-rich southern Niger Delta, where Yar’Adua had offered an amnesty to militants, would also be
critical. Violence resurged recently in the key region just as the country was wracked by sectarian clashes which claimed hundreds of
lives in the central part of the west African nation. Under an unwritten rule adopted by the Nigeria’s main political party on power
rotation between the mainly Muslim north and Christian-dominated south, the next elected president in 2011 should be a northerner.
down the flames of its active wars," says Ross Herbert, Africa Research Fellow at the
South African Institute of International Affairs in Johannesburg.
Africa’s conflicts are being solved and the economy is on the upswing
Xinhua 5. (“Yearender”, People’s Daily Online, December 22, http://english.people.com.cn/200512/22/eng20051222_230080.html)
Long-time hotspots in Africa's war- torn regions cooled down considerably in 2005, and political
stability in volatile places as Liberia has helped to bring the impoverished continent back to
economic growth, restoring hope in its people. Optimists might praise Africans for their own efforts to resolve their own
problems, as witnessed in the crisis of Togo, while insecurity in Somalia and stalemate in Sudan's Darfur nevertheless evidence the
Albeit uncertainties in Africa's security map, the continent has
lurking phantom of conflicts and feuds.
started to reflect on ways to achieve swifter economic turnaround, and evidences are that a
better year in 2006 is already around the corner. FEWER CONFLICTS The first positive sign emerged in January, as the
Sudanese government and southern rebel leader signed a comprehensive peace agreement ,
concluding an eight-year process to stop a civil war in the south, which has cost more than 2 million lives since 1983. After establishing
a transitional federal government in Nairobi in last October, the lawless Horn of Africa nation, Somalia, in June relocated the
administration to temporary base of Jowhar. Although factions inside the government still feud with each other and pirates
terrorize the seas off its coast, the relocation
is still a significant step towards the end of a 14-year civil war
between various factions and clans. Most Burundians have the reason to believe their country is on the
path to peace after a series of polls culminated in Pierre Nkurunziza's election and inauguration in August, under a UN- backed
plan to end ethnic civil war that has killed 300,000 people since 1993. The only remaining rebels , the roughly 3,000-strong
Forces for National Liberation, have also expressed the willingness to talk peace with the new government of the tiny
central African nation. The west African nation Liberia also followed the steps of peace as Ellen Johnson-
Sirleaf was elected the first postwar president in November's elections, 14 years after the civil wars, which killed 200,000
people and left a once prosperous country in shatters.
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Africa’s goin to shit—fragility of Nigeria’s democracy and its leader’s absence, combined
with political tensions, are decreasing African stability
Punch 4/6 (4/6/10, " Nigeria's democracy still fragile, US insists ", http://www.punchng.com/Articl.aspx?theartic=Art201004074355090)
The United States has again expressed concern over the political developments in Nigeria, saying
that democracy in the biggest black nation in the world is still “fragile or tenuous.” The US said
through its Assistant Secretary of State for Africa, Ambassador Johnnie Carson, on Monday night that President Umaru
Yar’Adua’s illness and the controversy generated by his long absence from office had led to
tension in Nigeria. Carson, at the second annual Africa Focus at Harvard University, Boston, also named the Democratic
Republic of Congo and Sudan as other countries in Africa with fragile democracies. Reaffirming that “the US welcomes President
Yar’Adua’s recent return to Nigeria,” he said, “Nigeria continues to experience political tensions caused by the
prolonged illness of the President (Yar’Adua).” He added that the US remained concerned that “there may be some people
in Nigeria who are putting their personal ambitions above the health of the President and more
importantly ahead of the political stability of the country.” A US-based Nigerian news agency, Empowered
Newswire, quoted the Assistant Secretary of State as also saying that Washington was concerned with Nigeria’s political health because
of its (Nigeria) importance to the world. He said, “Nigeria is
simply too important to Africa and too important to
the U.S. and the international community for us not to be concerned and engaged. “Widespread
instability in Nigeria could have a tsunami-like ripple effect across West Africa and the global community.”
Carson disclosed that during his recent visit to Nigeria, he “was encouraged by the steps Nigeria’s elected officials at the national and
state level took to elevate Dr. Goodluck Jonathan to the position of Acting President.” He warned that even though political progress
had been made, “Nigeria still faces significant political challenges and uncertainty in the run-up to the
presidential and National Assembly elections in 2011.” The US, according to Carson believes “it is important that Nigeria
improve its electoral system; reinvigorate its economy; resolve the conflicts in the Niger Delta
and end communal violence and impunity in Plateau State .” He advised Nigeria’s leaders to “act responsibly
and reaffirm their commitment to good governance, stability and democracy by choosing constitutional rule.” Nigeria and other
African countries, Carson pointed out ”need civilian governments that deliver services to their people; independent judiciaries that
respect and enforce the rule of law; professional security forces that respect human rights; strong and effective legislative institutions;
a free and responsible press; and a dynamic civil society.” Carson also announced that the US would start new programmes and
initiatives, ”which work to implement our policies to move our partnership with Africa forward. “We are establishing in-depth, high
level dialogues with South Africa, Angola, Nigeria, and with the African Union,” he said. A US-Nigeria bi-national commission
agreement was signed on Tuesday afternoon by the Secretary of State, Mrs Hillary Clinton, and Secretary to the Government of the
Federation Alhaji Yayale Ahmed. The agreement is expected to open up to the Federal Government, “the wide resources and reach of
the American government and society.” Carson stated before the signing of the agreement that the US through the commission ”can
help provide some answers and solution to some of Nigeria‘s power generation deficiencies.” Another top US official said Nigeria was
the first African country to earn such an agreement with the Barack Obama presidency. The source claimed that the Obama
administration was trying to pep-up the Jonathan presidency partly, in the hope of promoting democracy in Nigeria. Commenting on
the US-Nigeria bi-national commission, the US Assistant Secretary of State for Public Affairs, Mr. Phillip Crowley, said “it is a strategic
dialogue designed to expand mutual cooperation across a range of shared interests, including good governance, transparency, integrity,
energy, investment, food security, agriculture, the Niger Delta, and regional security cooperation.”
Underlying causes of war still fester in SSA – conflict could break out at any time
Xinhua 05. (“Yearender”, People’s Daily Online, December 22, http://english.people.com.cn/200512/22/eng20051222_230080.html)
But one grave worry remains. Even
in countries in peace, if the underlying causes of conflict are not
properly addressed, the specter of war is never too far away. Studies show that civil wars are more likely to occur
in countries with bad governance, stagnant economies and lots of valuable minerals, and some
argued, several wars that seem to have been extinguished are in fact only waiting to re-ignited. "There
will be no sustainable peace in Africa as long as poverty, bad political leadership and the many
unviable states continue to exist," said Katumanga Musambayi, a political scientist based in Kenya.
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======Conflict/Instability Good======
Nowhere was the scope and intensity of violence during the 1990s as great as in Africa. While the
general trend of armed conflict in Europe, Asia, the Americas, and the Middle East fell during the 1989-99 period, the
1990s witnessed an increase in the number of conflicts on the African continent . During this period, 16
UN peacekeeping missions were sent to Africa. (Three countries-Somalia, Sierra Leone, and Angola-were visited by multiple missions
during this time.) Furthermore, this period saw internal and interstate violence in a total of 30 sub-Saharan states. In 1999 alone,
the continent was plagued by 16 armed conflicts , seven of which were wars with more than 1,000 battle-related
deaths (Journal of Peace Research, 37:5, 2000, p. 638). In 2000, the situation continued to deteriorate: renewed heavy fighting
between Eritrea and Ethiopia claimed tens of thousands of lives in the lead-up to a June ceasefire and ultimately the signing of a peace
accord in December; continued violence in the Democratic Republic of Congo (DRC), Sierra Leone, Burundi, Angola, Sudan, Uganda, and
Nigeria as well as the outbreak of new violence between Guinea and Liberia, in Zimbabwe, and in the Ivory Coast have brought new
hardship and bloodshed to the continent.
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The affirmative does not solve the root causes of African conflict
Elbadawi and Sambanis, 2k Ibrahim Elbadawi and Nicholas Sambanis, World Bank economists, October 2000, Journal of African
Economies, p. 253
Four factors drive Africa’s propensity toward violent conflict . First, Africa is highly dependent on
natural resources exports, which may be looted by rebels to sustain their rebellion . Other regions are
also dependent on natural resources. However, since the relationship between natural resources and civil war-proneness is quadratic,
what is important is the dispersion rather than the mean of this variable (isxp). We find that the standard deviation of African
countries’ resource-dependence is 46% smaller than the standard deviation of non-African countries. Thus, more African countries are
closer to the peak of natural resource dependence, which maximizes the threat of war. More importantly, levels of per capita
income in Africa are much lower than in the other three developing regions . Median per capita GDP in
Africa accounts for less than one-half of that of Asia and less than one-eighth of the income level of Europe and North America. The
fact that young men in Africa are very poor and not educated substantially increases the risk of civil conflict. Globally, young males are
the best recruits for rebellion, and if they have little to lose they are more likely to enlist (on this finding see Collier and Hoeffler 2000).
Thirdly Africa’s pronounced failure to develop strong democratic institutions has compounded
other problems and significantly increased the risk of political violence in the continent (see the results for the P1p variable in
the appendix).
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Western powers consider African conflicts a second tier concern-- UN peacekeeping proves
de Coning, 6 Cedric de Coning, Research Fellow at ACCORD and an advisor to the Training for Peace (TfP) in Africa and the African Civil-
Military Coordination (CIMIC) programme, 2006, Conflict Trends, http://www.accord.org.za/ct/2006-3.htm,
While Western foreign policy, security and media attention has been focused on Iraq, Afghanistan and
the Balkans over the last decade, Africa emerged as the major arena for United Nations (UN) peacekeeping
operations.1 Of the 18 peace operations currently managed by the UN, eight are in Africa, and six of these are large complex peace
operations. This explains why 75% of the approximately 88 000 military, police and civilian UN peacekeepers currently deployed can
be found in Africa. The emphasis on Africa is also reflected in the UN peacekeeping budget. Of the approximately US$5 billion
budgeted for 2005/2006, around 77% is budgeted for operations in Africa.2 Peacekeeping is also a dominant theme for the African
Union (AU). Over the last half decade, the AU has undertaken two major peacekeeping operations of its own in Burundi and Sudan.
These operations have involved 10 000 peacekeepers at a total cost of approxi- mately US$600 million.3 Africa is, of course, also a
significant troop contributor to UN peace operations, with 34 African countries contributing 28% of the UN’s uniformed peacekeepers.
In comparison with the peacekeeping missions in Africa of the mid- to late 1990s, the new trend towards large
complex peace operations represents a significant shift in the political will of the international community to
invest in peace operations in Africa. This trend should not, however, be interpreted as signifying a new interest
in the UN or in Africa. Rather, the willingness to invest more than US$5 billion in UN peace operations
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was generated in, and will be sustained by, the post-9/11 belief that failed states are ideal training, staging and
breeding grounds for international terrorists.4 In this context, a kind of informal peacekeeping
apartheid has come about, whereby most European and American peacekeeping and offensive forces
are deployed in NATO or European Union (EU) operations in Europe and the Middle-East, whilst most UN
peace- keeping troops are contributed by the developing world and deployed in Africa . Whilst this
division of roles reflects the macro-pattern, it masks an interesting sub- trend that has emerged over the last three years. Almost a
decade after the debacles in Somalia and Rwanda resulted in the West withholding its peacekeepers from Africa, there is now a new
willingness to consider deploying European peacekeepers to Africa.
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framing the issue of preventing atrocities around the question of whether to “send in the
Marines.” Forcible humanitarian intervention cannot be ruled out. Nor can it be held out only as a last resort. Yet, the inherent risks
of military interventions should limit invasion and occupation to extreme cases. In most instances, political, diplomatic,
and a range of military options short of war are preferable and more effective .
3. The impact is containable -- a relatively small army could easily stop a genocide
Feil 98 (Scott- graduated from the United States Military Academy in 1973 and received an MA in political science from Stanford University.
Preventing Genocide: How the Early Use of Force Might Have Succeeded in Rwanda. Published by Carnegie Corporation
http://www.wilsoncenter.org/subsites/ccpdc/pubs/rwanda/rwanda.htm)
Based on the presentations by the panel and other research, the author believes that a modern force of 5,000 troops,
drawn primarily from one country and sent to Rwanda sometime between April 7 and 21 , 1994,
could have significantly altered the outcome of the conflict . Although the organized combatant factions in
Rwanda were fairly capable light infantry and such an operation would have entailed significant risk, the introduction of a
combat force large enough to seize, at one time, key objectives all over the country would have ,
in the words of one senior officer, "thrown a wet blanket over an emerging fire ." More specifically, forces
appropriately trained, equipped, and commanded, and introduced in a timely manner, could have
stemmed the violence in and around the capital, prevented its spread to the countryside, and
created conditions conducive to the cessation of the civil war between the RPF and RGF.7
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2. Their moral tunnel vision is complicit with the evil they criticize
Issac 2 (Professor of Political Science at Indiana-Bloomington, Director of the Center for the Study of Democracy and Public Life,
PhD from Yale (Jeffery C., Dissent Magazine, Vol. 49, Iss. 2, “Ends, Means, and Politics,” p. Proquest)
As a result, the most important political questions are simply not asked. It
is assumed that U.S. military intervention
is an act of "aggression," but no consideration is given to the aggression to which intervention is
a response. The status quo ante in Afghanistan is not, as peace activists would have it, peace,
but rather terrorist violence abetted by a regime--the Taliban--that rose to power through
brutality and repression. This requires us to ask a question that most "peace" activists would prefer not to ask: What
should be done to respond to the violence of a Saddam Hussein, or a Milosevic, or a Taliban
regime? What means are likely to stop violence and bring criminals to justice? Calls for diplomacy and international
law are well intended and important; they implicate a decent and civilized ethic of global order.
But they are also vague and empty, because they are not accompanied by any account of how
diplomacy or international law can work effectively to address the problem at hand campus left
offers no such account. To do so would require it to contemplate tragic choices in which moral
goodness is of limited utility. Here what matters is not purity of intention but the intelligent exercise of power. Power is not
a dirty word or an unfortunate feature of the world. It is the core of politics. Power is the ability to effect outcomes in the world.
Politics, in large part, involves contests over the distribution and use of power. To accomplish
anything in the political world, one must attend to the means that are necessary to bring it
about. And to develop such means is to develop, and to exercise, power. To say this is not to say that power is
beyond morality. It is to say that power is not reducible to morality . As writers such as Niccolo Machiavelli,
Max Weber, Reinhold Niebuhr, and Hannah Arendt have taught, an unyielding concern with moral goodness
undercuts political responsibility . The concern may be morally laudable, reflecting a kind of personal integrity, but it
suffers from three fatal flaws: (1) It fails to see that the purity of one's intention does not ensure the
achievement of what one intends. Abjuring violence or refusing to make common cause with
morally compromised parties may seem like the right thing; but if such tactics entail impotence,
then it is hard to view them as serving any moral good beyond the clean conscience of their
supporters; (2) it fails to see that in a world of real violence and injustice, moral purity is not
simply a form of powerlessness; it is often a form of complicity in injustice. This is why, from the
standpoint of politics--as opposed to religion--pacifism is always a potentially immoral stand. In
categorically repudiating violence, it refuses in principle to oppose certain violent injustices with
any effect; and (3) it fails to see that politics is as much about unintended consequences as it is
about intentions; it is the effects of action, rather than the motives of action, that is most
significant. Just as the alignment with "good" may engender impotence, it is often the pursuit of "good" that generates evil. This is
the lesson of communism in the twentieth century: it is not enough that one's goals be sincere or idealistic; it is equally
important, always, to ask about the effects of pursuing these goals and to judge these effects in
pragmatic and historically contextualized ways. Moral absolutism inhibits this judgment. It
alienates those who are not true believers. It promotes arrogance. And it undermines political
effectiveness.
3. Exclusion is a reason to vote neg – They advocate that the group they save is more
important than the rest of humanity – Since all lives are equal, you should treat them that
way by protecting the greatest number
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Dworkin 77 (Professor of Law and Philosophy at New York University (Ronald 1977, “Taking Rights Seriously” pg 274-5)
The liberal conception of equality sharply limits the extent to which ideal arguments of policy may be used to justify any constraint on
liberty. Such arguments cannot be used if the idea in question is itself controversial within the community. Constraints cannot be
defended, for example, directly on the ground that they contribute to a culturally sophisticated community, whether the community
wants the sophistication or not, because that argument would violate the canon of the liberal conception of equality that prohibits a
Utilitarian argument
government from relying on the claim that certain forms of life are inherently more valuable than others.
of policy, however, would seem secure from that objection. They do not suppose that any form
of life is inherently more valuable than any other, but instead base· their claim, that constraints on liberty are
necessary to advance some collective goal of the community , just on the fact that that goal happens to be
desired more widely or more deeply than any other. Utilitarian arguments of policy, therefore, seem not to oppose
but on the contrary to embody the fundamental right of equal concern and respect, because they
treat the wishes of each member of the community on a par with the wishes of any other, with
no bonus or discount reflecting the view that that member is more or less worthy of concern, or his
views more or less worthy of respect, than any other. This appearance of egalitarianism has, I think, been the principal source of the
great appeal that utilitarianism has had, as a general political philosophy, over the last century. In Chapter 9, however, I pointed out
that the egalitarian character of a utilitarian argument is often an illusion. I will not repeat, but only summarize, my argument here.
Utilitarian arguments fix on the fact that a particular constraint on liberty will make more people happier, or satisfy more of their
preferences, depending upon whether psychological or preference utilitarianism is in play. But people's overall preference for one
policy rather than another may be seen to include, on further analysis, both preference that are personal, because they state a
preference for the assignment of one set of goods or opportunities to him and preferences that are external, because they state a
preference for one assignment of goods or opportunities to others. But a utilitarian argument that assigns critical weight to the
external preferences of members of the community will not be egalitarian in the sense under consideration. It will not respect the right
of everyone to be treated with equal concern and respect.
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4. US-China cooperation over new fuels and strategic reserves will offset shocks
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--Shocks N/UQ
Link should have been triggered last August and the August before that
AP, 11 (Associated Press, 8/8/11, “Oil prices plunge to the lowest point of the year,” JPL)
Oil plunged to its lowest price of the year Monday on concerns about the slowing
global economy and future demand for oil and gas. Benchmark West Texas Intermediate crude fell
$5.57, or 6.4 percent to settle at $81.31 per barrel on the New York Mercantile Exchange. That is the
lowest settlement price of the year for crude , but it's still higher than the $71.63 per
barrel low of the past 12 months. Oil hit that on Aug . 24 of last year, when a combination of disappointing
economic news and abundant supplies drove down prices. Brent crude, used to price many international varieties of crude, on
Monday fell $5.63, or 5.2 percent, to settle at $103.74 per barrel on the ICE Futures exchange in London. Anxious
traders pulled money out of oil and stocks and bought assets considered to be safer during times of
economic uncertainty, such as Treasurys and gold. Gold topped $1,700 an ounce for the first time, while stocks were down more than 5
percent. Standard & Poor's on Friday cut the Triple-A credit rating for long-term U.S. government debt. Monday's trading session was
the first chance traders and investors had to react, and many of them sold off. In the past two weeks, oil prices have
dropped nearly $16 per barrel. Analysts think oil remain volatile this week as traders look for some clarity about the
direction of the world economy and demand for oil. The Department of Energy is scheduled to release its Short-term Energy Outlook
Traders also are
on Tuesday, and OPEC is expected to issue an updated forecast for global oil consumption as well.
concerned about debt problems in Europe, where the European Central Bank said it will
intervene to prop up the sagging economies of Spain and Italy .
Oil prices hit year-long low in October; should have triggered the link
Khan, 10/3 (Chris, 10/3/12, “Oil drops to lowest price since 2010,” USA Today / Associated Press, JPL)
The benchmark price dropped below $78 per barrel to its lowest level in more than a
year, as fears of another recession grew. Oil fell along with broad declines on Wall Street. If the price oil stays low,
gasoline prices could fall further. Gasoline has fallen from a peak of $3.985 per gallon May 5 to $3.417
Monday, according to AAA. It began the year at $3.073. Investors are concerned about a pair of recent
announcements that point to weaker demand and even lower energy prices this year. Greece, at the
center of the European debt crisis, said over the weekend that it will miss its lower spending targets despite severe cost-cutting. And
China's manufacturing sector appeared to cool off in September. "We're also at a lull in the
market" after the summer driving season, independent analyst Stephen Schork said. "This is when you tend to see
weakness" in oil prices. Benchmark crude on Monday fell $1.59, or 2%, to finish the day at $77.61 per barrel in New York.
Prices tumbled as low as $76.85 earlier in the day. Oil hasn't been that low since
September 2010. In London, Brent crude dropped $1.05 to end at $101.71 a barrel. The decline in oil markets may give
U.S. drivers a break this winter. Gasoline prices have dropped during the past few months, though at a slower pace than oil. The price
of gas has fallen 14% since peaking in May near $4 per gallon (3.8 liters). Oil
is down by more than twice as much —
32% — in that time. An ongoing worry for investors in recent months has been Greece's debt
problems and their impact on the rest of Europe. Without more financial aid, Greece will start running out of money in two weeks.
A Greek default could spread to neighboring countries and possibly trigger widespread banking problems. That would
hamper world energy demand as lending slows and businesses cut spending.
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The argument about terrorist motivation is also important. Terrorists generally have
not killed as many as they
have been capable of killing. This restraint seems to derive from an understanding of mass casualty attacks
as both unnecessary and counterproductive. They are unnecessary because terrorists, by and large, have
succeeded by conventional means. Also, they are counterproductive because they might alienate key
constituencies, whether among the public, state sponsors, or the terrorist leadership group. In Brian Jenkins' famous words,
terrorists want a lot of people watching, not a lot of people dead. Others have argued that the lack of mass casualty terrorism
and effective exploitation of BW has been more a matter of accident and good fortune than capability or intent. Adherents of
this view, including former Secretary of Defense William Cohen, argue that "it's not a matter of if but when." The attacks of
September 11 would seem to settle the debate about whether terrorists have both the motivation and sophistication to
exploit weapons of mass destruction for their full lethal effect. After all, those were terrorist attacks of unprecedented
sophistication that seemed clearly aimed at achieving mass casualties--had the World Trade Center towers collapsed as the
1993 bombers had intended, perhaps as many as 150,000 would have died. Moreover, Osama bin Laden's constituency
would appear to be not the "Arab street" or some other political entity but his god. And terrorists answerable only to their
deity have proven historically to be among the most lethal. But this debate cannot be considered settled. Bin Laden and his
followers could have killed many more on September 11 if killing as many as possible had been their primary objective. They
now face the core dilemma of asymmetric warfare: how to escalate without creating new interests for the stronger power and
thus the incentive to exploit its power potential more fully. Asymmetricadversaries want their stronger enemies
fearful, not fully engaged--militarily or otherwise. They seek to win by preventing the stronger partner from exploiting
its full potential. To kill millions in America with biological or other weapons would only commit the United States--and
much of the rest of the international community--to the annihilation of the perpetrators.
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--Ext. – No Impact
High risk aversion means no motivation for WMD
Maerli (Science Program Fellow, Center for Int’l Security &Cooperation, Stanford Univ.) 2K [Morten Bremer, “Relearning the ABCs:
Terrorists and “Weapons of Mass Destruction,” The Nonproliferation Review, Summer, pp. 108-119// -delo]
Furthermore, a group’s interest in ABC weaponry is not the same as obtaining such capabilities. Before any decision to deploy either
conventional or non-conventional weapons, a terrorist group will have to judge its competence to use the weapon effectively. This will
involve practical assessments of the level of training, skills, and technical and logistical capabilities requires. Terrorists
are
dependent on success, as failure could threaten the cohesiveness or the very existence of the
group. This creates an environment of risk aversion where known and proven tactics will be
preferred. Surely, if the stakes are high, terrorists , as others, can accept further risks. But there have always been
enormous gaps between the potential of a weapon and the abilities and/or will to employ it by
terrorists. Most terrorist groups, even those pursuing suicidal ends, protect their resources .
Wasting personnel and money will inevitably harm the group and its long-term goals . Consequently,
new means and methods of violence with unknown outcomes would be less appealing.
2. There’s no internal link to nuclear war – no countries with WMD would care about
African water shortages. It’s their burden to prove they would be drawn in.
3. Deterrence checks water wars
IPS 99. (Inter Press Service, August 8, lexis)
Economic and military might play a role too. Poor and arid countries such as Jordan or the Palestinian territories, no
matter how desperate, cannot afford to launch a war against powerful neighbors , who, in turn, use
their control of water sources into bargaining weapons. Around 90 percent of the water from the West Bank is
consumed by Israel, yet the Israeli government demands Palestinians to cut back on their
consumption and cuts agreed supplies to Jordan.
4. ALT CAUSE –
a) poor water management
USA Today 3. (“Water shortages will leave world in dire straits”, January 26, http://www.usatoday.com/news/nation/2003-01-26-
water-usat_x.htm)
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More than half of humanity will be living with water shortages , depleted fisheries and polluted coastlines
within 50 years because of a worldwide water crisis, warns a United Nations report out Monday. Waste and
inadequate management of water are the main culprits behind growing problems, particularly
in poverty-ridden regions, says the study, the most comprehensive of its kind. The United Nations Environment Programme,
working with more than 200 water resource experts worldwide, produced the report.
b) increased consumption
Info for Health.Org 98. (“Facing Water Shortages”, Population Reports, Vol. XXVI, Number 1, September,
http://www.infoforhealth.org/pr/m14/m14chap3.shtml)
Years of rapid population growth and increasing water consumption for agriculture, industry,
and municipalities have strained the world's freshwater resources . In some areas the demand for water
already exceeds nature's supply, and a growing number of countries are expected to face water shortages in the near future.
***Hotspots Frontlines***
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3. Turn – Refugees
a. African democratization undermines refugee protection
Crisp, 2k Jeff Crisp, head of evaluation and policy analysis in the Office of the United Nations High Commissioner for Refugees, 2000,
Journal of Contemporary African Studies, p. 164
The hostile reception received by refugees in some African states is also related to political developments at the national level. Indeed,
there is growing evidence of a linkage between the process of democratization on one hand and the
decline in refugee protection standards on the other. Prior to the 1990s, authoritarian governments
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and one-party states in Africa were relatively free to offer asylum to large refugee populations when
they considered such a policy to be consistent with their own interests . But with the end of the cold
war and the introduction of pluralistic systems of government in many parts of the continent, the refugee
question has assumed a new degree of political importance. As in the industrialized states, both
governments and opposition parties are prone to encourage nationalistic and xenophobic
sentiments, and to blame their country’s ills on the presence of refugees and other foreigners. In countries where large
numbers of people are living below the poverty line and where income differentials are wide (South Africa
provides a good example) such messages can have a potent appeal , irrespective of their veracity.
2. Alt. Cause
a. Brain drain
Ploch, 9 (Lauren, Congressional Research Service, May 1, Congressional Research Service (CRS) Reports and Issue Briefs, May 1)
As Africa's largest economy, South Africa has been affected by therecent global economic
downturn, and its retail, mining, and manufacturing sectors have declined. Economists warn
that South Africa's unemployment rate could rise in 2009, with the country losing up to 300,000 jobs. (52) As
discussed above, however, the economy is expected to rebound in 2010. Some analysts have
highlighted the country's executive "brain drain" as one of greatest threats to South Africa's
economic progress. They also suggest that the outcome of the debate over the role of state assistance may have the greatest
effect on the country's capability to meet ASGISA goals.
b. Weak infrastructure
The Star, 11 THE STAR 7-5-2011 (“Africa needs $930bn capex this decade; zz AfDB spells out infrastructure shortages,” lexis)
Africa needs an estimated $93 billion (R621bn) a year, over the next 10 years, to spend on
infrastructure, according to the African Development Bank (AfDB). That amount is needed in addition to the $45bn a
year countries are already spending on capital investment and maintenance. The figures appear in a
report entitled Telling Africa's Development Story, which was launched at a presentation in Johannesburg yesterday. To make matters
worse, inefficiencies in implementing infrastructure projects cost $17bn annually , the report says. It notes
that efforts to upgrade technical and managerial skills should minimise costs, along with the creation of institutional, legal and
regulatory frameworks for public-private partnerships. According to the report, inadequate infrastructure leaves more than 60 percent
of Africa's population without access to electricity, about two-thirds of the rural population with no roads and 95 percent of agriculture
without irrigation. "The
poor state of infrastructure in sub-Saharan Africa cuts economic growth by 2
percentage points a year and reduces productivity by as much as 40 percent," the AfDB report says.
3. Doomsday predictions about African debt default are misplaced – sanctions and
retaliation threats check back
Conybeare 90. (John A.C., prof of Poli Sci @ U Iowa and author of Trade Wars, “On the repudiation of sovereign debt: sources of
stability and risk”, Columbia Journal of World Business, Vol. 25, No. 1-2, Pg. 46, March 22, lexis)
A SPECTER HAUNTS the world's bankers, the specter of massive debt default and repudiation,
leading to a collapse of the international banking system and possibly world recession. An
Organization of Economic Cooperation and Development (OECD) report in 1983 identified sovereign risk as one of the two main
problems in international banking today (the other being exchange risk),(1) and recent
interruptions of interest
payments by Argentina, Brazil, Peru and several African countries appear to confirm this view.(2) It has
been argued that lenders to developing countries face an unprecedented challenge due to the
unforeseen circumstances of oil prices, recession, terms of trade, etc .; developing country borrowers with
(in the most charitable view) short time horizons, and the historically aberrant folly of bankers unwilling to analyze country risks
carefully. Anyone who follows the financial press has been reading such prophesies of doom for
the past fifteen years; the widespread acceptance of such forecasts is reflected both in bank share prices and in the secondary
market value of developing country debt.(3) Yet, barring renegotiations or reschedulings, the system stands intact . The
innocent observer might wonder if there is not something missing from these pessimistic prognoses. The thesis offered here is a more
sanguine one, and is presented in two parts. First, I believe that the
doomsday forecasts are misplaced. High risk
loans are a rational strategy of portfolio diversification , and historically there is little to distinguish current
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sovereign risk lending from that which has occurred in past centuries. The banks versus debtor country bargaining problem is
analogous to a "Prisoners' Dilemma" game in which both sides can achieve joint gains through non-cooperation or joint losses through
non-cooperation. Mutual
agreement is achieved through "tit-for-tat" tactics of retaliation: default by
the debtors, and penalties imposed by the banks. The first conclusion is that sanctions have, as in the past,
been sufficient to prevent a breakdown of the system . The sanctions for modern debtor countries are similar to
those imposed on medieval kings: loss of assets rather than reputation.
Alt. cause - Agriculture and fertilizer access are key to African economic growth and
stability
EILITTÄ 6 (Marjatta, International Center for Soil Fertility and Agricultural Development, “Achieving an African Green Revolution: A
Vision for Sustainable Agricultural Growth in Africa” http://www.africafertilizersummit.org/Background_Papers/01%20Eilitta--Achieving%20an
%20African%20Green%20Revolution.pdf)
Africa’s food security situation is quickly worsening, and if not addressed through concerted, large-scale
international ef-forts, the situation will become critical , requiring increasingly greater investments. • Soil nutrient
mining, caused by continuous cropping in the ab-sence of fertilizer inputs, is an important
contributor to food insecurity, poor agricultural productivity, deforestation, and loss of wildlife
habitats, and is making many of Africa’s formerly more productive farmlands nearly uncultivable. • Agriculture needs to be
the number one priority in Africa’s development agenda. Agricul-ture employs at least 65% of
the labor force and its performance has a direct impact on the food security and economic
wellbeing of this large segment of the society, and numerous more indirect impacts on the
performance of national economies. • Productivity-enhancing in-puts, particularly fertilizers, have an
indispensable role in achieving agricultural growth in Africa. African farmers will use fertilizer if
it is available to them at a price they can af-ford and when appropriate fer-tilizer blends and amounts are used, their crops do
respond to it. Worldwide and in countries that benefited from the Green Revolution, fertilizers have fueled the
growth of agricul-tural productivity.
clean water and sanitation, and preservation of the world's natural resources—just to name a
few.
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4. Extinctions good - Complex Systems Are More Prone To Total Failure—Simple Ones
Are Stable
Heath, 99
(Jim Heath, 1999, Orchids Australia, December, http://www.orchidsaustralia.com/whysave.htm)
Some people say we can’t afford to lose any species , no matter what species they are. Everything needs
everything else, they say, to make nature balance. If that were right, it might explain why the six orchid species
should be saved. Alas, no. We could pour weedkiller on all the orchids in Australia and do no
ecological damage to the rest of the continent’s biology. But wouldn’t the natural ecological systems then
become less stable, if we start plucking out species - even those orchids? Not necessarily. Natural biological systems are
hardly ever stable and balanced anyway. Everything goes along steadily for a time, then boom -
the system falls apart and simplifies for no visible reason . Diverse systems are usually more
unstable than the less diverse ones. Biologists agree that in some places less diversity is more
stable (in the Arctic, for example). Also, monocultures - farms - can be very stable. Not to mention the
timeless grass of a salt marsh. In other words, there’s no biological law that says we have to save the
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orchids because they add diversity, and that added diversity makes the biological world more
stable.
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We don’t need animals to keep us alive—human evolution guarantees that we will never
wipe ourselves out by destroying the environment
SIMON 96
(Julian, Robert H. Smith School of Business, University of Maryland, The Ultimate Resource II: People, Materials, and
Environment, http://www.rhsmith.umd.edu/faculty/jsimon/Ultimate_Resource/)
Let us begin by going beyond the trends in particular resources. The greatest and most important trend, of which these
particular trends are a part, is the trend of this earth becoming ever more livable for human beings. We
see the signs of this in our longer life expectancy, improved knowledge of nature, and greater
ability to protect ourselves from the elements, living with ever more safety and comfort . But
though this larger trend buttresses the particular resource trends, it still provides no causal explanation of the phenomenon we seek to
understand. Evolutionary
thinking, however, and (more specifically in economics) the sort of analysis suggested by Friedrich
Hayek, offers
an explanation of the observed long-term trend. Hayek (following upon Hume) urges upon us that
humankind has evolved sets of rules and patterns of living which are consistent with survival
and growth rather than with decline and extinction, an aspect of the evolutionary selection for survival among
past societies. He assumes that the particular rules and living patterns have had something to do with chances for survival--for
example, he reasons that patterns leading to higher fertility and more healthful and productive living have led to groups' natural
increase and hence survival-- and therefore the patterns we have inherited constitute a machinery for
continued survival and growth where conditions are not too different from the past. (This is consistent with a biological
view of humankind as having evolved genes that point toward survival. But no such genetic evolution is presupposed by Hayek, in part
because its time span is too great for us to understand it as well as we can understand the evolution of cultural rules. It may be
illuminating, however, to view mankind's biological nature as part of the long evolutionary chain dating from the simplest plants and
animals, a history of increasing complexity of construction and greater capacity to deal actively with the environment.) Let us apply
Hayek's general analysis to natural resources. Such resources
of all sorts have been a part of human history
ever since the beginning. If humankind had not evolved patterns of behavior that increased
rather than decreased the amounts of resources available to us, we would not still be here. If, as
our numbers increased (or even as our numbers remained nearly stationary), our patterns had led to
diminished supplies of plants and animals, less flint for tools, and disappearing wood for fires
and construction, I would not be here to be writing these pages, and you would not be here to
be reading them.
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Mass extinctions are key to life on earth—they allow evolution and prevent everything
from dying
Scully, 2
(Malcolm, Editor at Large of the Chronicle, The Chronicle of Higher Education, July 5)
His analyses of earlier extinctions lead him to conclude that nature
is a self-organized system that, when
disrupted, will correct itself. One way it does so, he writes, is through extinction. Species vanish,
but the system survives. Citing Per Bak, a physicist now at the Imperial College of Science, Technology and Medicine in
London, who first described self-organized systems in 1987, Boulter says that the best way to understand such systems is to envision a
sand pile to which a steady stream of grains is added. The stream creates a cone that grows larger and steeper, and at some point
collapses in an avalanche. Then the process starts again. In such systems, there
are long periods of relative calm and
infrequent large disruptions. "If biological evolution really is a self-organized Earth-life system,
there are some very important consequences ," he says. "One is that life on this planet continues
despite internal and external setbacks, because it is the system that recovers at the expense of
some of its former parts. For example, the end of the dinosaurs enabled mammals to diversify.
Otherwise if the exponential rise were to reach infinity, there would not be space or food to
sustain life. It would come to a stop. Extinctions are necessary to retain life on this planet." His
research provides "more evidence to support the idea that evolution thrives on culling," he says. "The planet did really well
from the Big Five mass-extinction events. The victims' demise enabled new environments to develop and more diversification took
In just this same way the planet can take
place in other groups of animals and plants. Nature was the richer for it.
advantage from the abuse we are giving it. The harder the abuse, the greater the change to the environment. But it
also follows that it brings forward the extinctions of a whole selection of vulnerable organisms."
2. No scenario for escalation – ethnic conflicts remain within Africa and are exaggerated by
the West
FPA 5. (“Recently in Focus”, Foreign Policy Association, http://www.fpa.org/newsletter_info2482/newsletter_info_sub_list.htm?
section=Ethnicity)
In Great Decisions 2001, I. William Zartman poses the following question about conflict resolution in Africa: "can it succeed?" In a
continuing series of reflections on this piece, In Focus looks at ethnicity in Africa and its role in fomenting conflict. Zartman notes that
"Africa's conflicts are mainly internal" and ethnic conflict is a substantial component in many of
these conflicts. However, even when the ethnic dimension is not culpable or is a minor constituent
in a struggle, ethnicity is often blamed . Such reductionism has been a core value of western
attempts to label and to describe Africa since the dawn of the European encounter . By placing
conflicts and disagreements in a simple framework, external viewers are spared the tedium and the
concentration of having to make sense of situations that may have no clear good guys or bad
guys, and which also may show no signs of imminent resolution. This is not say that conflict along ethnic lines is not serious, rather
that observers with ulterior motives have skewed its importance.
3. African ethnic conflicts are impossible to solve – too many exacerbating factors
Maninger 97. (Stephen, Parliamentary Researcher, “Ethic Confrontation - Security Implications of Policies Towards Ethnic Minorities”,
African Security Review, Vol. 6, No. 4, http://www.iss.co.za/ASR/6No4/Maninger.html)
Both Western and East-bloc military establishments have experienced the durability of nationalist insurgency during their military
involvement in Vietnam and Afghanistan respectively. Former US Defense Secretary Robert McNamara conceded that during the
Vietnam war the US overestimated the ideological – Communist – threat while having "totally underestimated the nationalist aspect of
Ho Chi Minh's movement. We were wrong, terribly wrong."26 The old wisdom of guerrilla warfare, namely that the insurgents need to
avoid losing in order to win, while governments need to win in order to avoid losing, also retains its relevance in the ethnic conflict
scenario. Ethnically
motivated insurgents seldom have any desire to take over the entire state, and
it generally remains their objective to gain control of a familiar region or a territory to which
they feel historically attached, wherein they seek to establish a state of their own. The military pressure is merely a method
of reaching a settlement which would make state-formation, with international recognition and formal, as well as normal relations with
the rump state, possible. Heterogeneous military formations and states are almost always at a disadvantage when engaging in counter-
insurgency operations against nationalist sub-groups.27 Cohesion becomes a problem as loyalties and communication are put to the
test. The durable nature of ethnic conflict suggests that almost nothing, short of genocide, can
overcome the will to resist. Sri Lanka's drawn out ethnic war shows that to defeat ethnic insurgents today is to face their
sons tomorrow. In Africa's case, additional factors may also play a role in such a scenario, namely:
the natural proclivity to combat, which follows many years of liberation wars and concomitant
oversupply of illegal weapons, along with a considerable familiarity with military weapons and tactics which is quite
prevalent among ethnically conscious groups, i.e. Zulus and Boers. Many African ethnic groups or tribes pride themselves on relatively
deep-seated military tradition; the fragility of some countries' infrastructures, which have difficulty sustaining their populations; and
the limited resources of developing countries to combat insurgencies, as demonstrated in Zaire, Rwanda,
Burundi,i etc.
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2. There is no scenario for escalation – great powers would not be drawn in to fight over
African famine. At best, they can claim a small regional conflict.
3. ALT CAUSE–
a) locusts destroy 80% of crops
Reuters 4. (“Fears of Famine as Locusts Advance Across W. Africa”, Global Policy Forum, August 8,
http://www.globalpolicy.org/socecon/hunger/2004/0808locusts.htm)
Nearly a
million people in West Africa face famine unless they get international aid to battle swarms of
locusts devouring their crops in the region's worst plague in 15 years , farmers and government experts
warned. The locusts are sweeping into crop-growing areas of the Sahel, on the Sahara's southern fringe, a region whose people are
A fraction of a swarm can eat
mostly subsistence farmers and whose governments lack the means to fight the infestation.
the same amount in a day as 10 elephants, 25 camels or about 2,500 people , experts say, destroying
subsistence crops such as sorghum and millet as well as money earners like water melons and groundnuts. "We
have to expect a deficit in our cereal crop of around 80 percent . What's more, 600,000-800,000
people will be affected by famine," Mohamed Lemine, an official from Mauritania's national agriculture
federation, told reporters late on Saturday. "If steps are not taken we can't hope for any harvest this year," another senior
federation official said. The U.N. Food and Agriculture Organisation warned as long ago as October that locust swarms threatened to
wreak havoc on the region after exceptional rains and humidity following several years of drought allowed the insects to flourish. But
the response has fallen woefully short. The FAO said two weeks ago that damage from the airborne invasion could
triple to $245 million within a year if no emergency aid is provided soon.
B. Oil dependence
ICG, 6 (International Crisis Group, 7-19-2006,
http://www.crisisgroup.org/library/documents/africa/west_africa/113_nigeria___want_in_the_midst_of_plenty.pdf
Oil has plunged Nigeria into “Dutch disease” – the phenomenon whereby an increase in revenues
from a natural resource raises the exchange rate, making other export industries uncompetitive
and possibly leading to deindustrialisation. In May 2006, Nigeria’s crude oil output was about 2.1 million barrels per day,
though attacks on pipelines in July have lowered it somewhat.104 In addition to its oil wealth, the country has proven natural gas
reserves estimated at 184 trillion cubic feet, which makes it the seventh largest source in the world.105 The reserve-production ratio,
assuming no additions to proven reserves in the future, is estimated at 240 years for gas, compared with about 40 years for oil,
reflecting the relative under-exploitation of natural gas. The mono-commodity economy has been sustainable, though at a staggering
social cost and great risk to national unity. However, in
the long run it is probably unviable and certainly undesirable:
The economic record since the oil boom is one of lacklustre growth, increasing poverty,
widening inequality and a secular decline in performance. From 1980 to 2002, economic growth averaged just 2 per
cent annually, and real income per capita stands today at about one third the level achieved in 1980….Nigeria’s once-thriving
agricultural and solid mineral exports are moribund; manufacturing today constitutes a smaller proportion of the economy (about 6 per
cent) than at independence. The economy drifts on a sea of oil, blown by the capricious winds of international energy markets.106
2. South Africa is tightening its anti-proliferation laws and is developing a nuclear energy
program that focuses on peaceful purposes.
Lacey, 6 ( “Country Profile 12: South Africa.” Jennifer Megan Lacey, November 2006. FirstWatch International a research consultancy that
conducts open-source assessments on nuclear fuel cycle programs and nuclear safeguards
technologies.http://www.sipri.org/contents/expcon/cnsc1sa.html)
The South African government has made clear that its nuclear programme will focus on peaceful purposes
and its membership and active role in numerous nonproliferation regimes signals this peaceful intent. South Africa’s upcoming
chairmanship of the NSG also confirms its nonproliferation credentials. SouthAfrica is strengthening the
enforcement of its anti-proliferation laws, and urging more international cooperation in enforcement efforts.(5)
Under President Mbeki, the country has taken an active role in promoting peaceful nuclear energy developments for all nations.(6) In
August 2005, African National Congress (ANC) National Executive Committee member and Deputy Minister of Foreign Affairs Aziz
Pahad emphasized ‘the basic and inalienable right of all NPT states’ to develop research and production capabilities for the peaceful
use of nuclear energy without discrimination.(7) Pahad and the South African Deputy Minister of Foreign Affairs have both commented
on occasions that the problems related to Iran’s nuclear programme are primarily due to the unequal implementation of the delicately
balanced rights and obligations contained in the NPT itself.(8) At the end of an October 2006 IAEA Nuclear Safeguards Symposium,
Abdul Minty concluded that ‘What we should strive for is not to place further limitations on the peaceful application of the atom by
those who have already committed themselves not to pursue the nuclear weapons option. ’(9)
***Conflict Good***
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1NC – War
Continuing war brings peace
LUTTWAK 99 ( Edward N. Luttwak is Senior Fellow at the Center for Strategic and International Studies. , Foreign Affairs, July/August,
http://isuisse.ifrance.com/emmaf/base/give_war_a_chance.html)
Today cease-fires and armistices are imposed on lesser powers by multilateral agreement -- not to avoid great-
power competition but for essentially disinterested and indeed frivolous motives, such as television audiences' revulsion at harrowing
scenes of war. But this, perversely, can systematically prevent the transformation of war into peace .
The Dayton accords are typical of the genre: they have condemned Bosnia to remain divided into three rival armed camps, with combat
suspended momentarily but a state of hostility prolonged indefinitely. Since
no side is threatened by defeat and loss,
none has a sufficient incentive to negotiate a lasting settlement; because no path to peace is
even visible, the dominant priority is to prepare for future war rather than to reconstruct
devastated economies and ravaged societies. Uninterrupted war would certainly have caused
further suffering and led to an unjust outcome from one perspective or another, but it would
also have led to a more stable situation that would have let the postwar era truly begin . Peace
takes hold only when war is truly over. A variety of multilateral organizations now make it their business to intervene in
other peoples' wars. The defining characteristic of these entities is that they insert themselves in war situations while refusing to
engage in combat. In the long run this only adds to the damage. If the United Nations helped the strong defeat the
weak faster and more decisively, it would actually enhance the peacemaking potential of war .
But the first priority of U.N. peacekeeping contingents is to avoid casualties among their own personnel. Unit commanders
therefore habitually appease the locally stronger force, accepting its dictates and tolerating its
abuses. This appeasement is not strategically purposeful, as siding with the stronger power
overall would be; rather, it merely reflects the determination of each U.N. unit to avoid
confrontation. The final result is to prevent the emergence of a coherent outcome, which
requires an imbalance of strength sufficient to end the fighting.
--A2: De Mello
De Mello is wrong—negotiated solutions come only after military victory
LUTTWAK 2k (Edward, Senior Fellow, Center for Strategic and International Studies, Foreign Affairs, March/April)
Vieira de Mello states that I neglected to mention the wars in Namibia, El Salvador, and Mozambique, all of
which ended through negotiations , rather than through conclusive wars. Really? True, there were
negotiations in which the U.N. played a large role alongside others, such as Rome's Community of San Egidio and less-dubious
NGOS. But as I noted, South Africa's war with the South West Africa People's Organisation was finally stopped by U.S.
pressure, against the background of the Soviet-Cuban intervention in Angola. As for El Salvador,
its guerrilla war did end through negotiation -- but only after the insurgents were denied any
chance of winning by the increasingly strong army and the Defensa Civil militia, conjoined with the diminishing
hope of Sandinista-Cuban-Soviet assistance. Only then did the insurgents want to try the ballot box instead of the gun, but they were
defeated electorally as well. As for Mozambique, the government's rival -- the Mozambique National Resistance (MNR) -- was born as a
Rhodesian covert operation and lived on as a South African proxy. Once the MNR's creator had disappeared and its replacement patron
cut off further support, the Mozambique Liberation Front (Frelimo) won the war. Only then did undoubtedly useful mediation play its
small role; so that too was a war ended by victory. The rest of Vieira de Mello's contentions can be answered by my response to
Crocker, especially in the case of Sierra Leone, whose own war was inconclusive because, amid many atrocities against civilians, it was
hardly fought by the supposed combatants. Outside multilateral intervention was notably ineffectual. Vieira de Mello notes that "U.N.
officials in such places as eastern Angola, northern Sierra Leone, and the eastern areas of the Democratic Republic of Congo face the
fact that rebels fight not for victory but because fighting itself offers power and wealth." U.N.
officials may "face the fact"
but can do nothing about it, other than to legitimize grotesque entities that call themselves
states because a U.N. seat has their name on it. Those officials are not earning their keep,
because they neither kill rebels nor help them win on the sound calculation that war itself is
more savage than the most savage of belligerents .
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--A2: Crocker
Crocker is wrong—civil wars will burn out if they are allowed to escalate
LUTTWAK 2k (Edward, Senior Fellow, Center for Strategic and International Studies, Foreign Affairs, March/April)
Chester Crocker's thoughtful critique of my article, "Give War a Chance," warrants broader consideration, but here I can only try to
respond to his main objection ("A Poor Case for Quitting," January/February 2000). While describing the paradoxical logic of the
strategy presented in my article as "compelling," Crocker notes major exceptions to the proposition that wars
themselves establish the preconditions for peace, if uninterrupted by outsiders -- including the cases of Chechnya,
Sudan, Kashmir, Sri Lanka, and Angola. He is, of course, correct. In all those areas, warfare has persisted for
decades, yet there is no peace in sight. But war can become its own remedy only by consuming
and destroying the material and moral resources needed to keep fighting. It follows that the
speed with which war destroys itself depends on its intensity and scale . In civil wars, the intensity of the
fighting is usually low and the scale very limited, except for short (often seasonal) explosions of violence that, in most cases, are very
localized. That leaves unaffected the wider environment, whose undestroyed resources can fuel war endlessly. As Crocker notes,
Chechen resistance to the Russians began in the 1830s. But during the last 170 years there have been only a few months of truly
intense large-scale fighting. Otherwise, the Russians would long ago have achieved an imperial peace through genocide or forced
dispersal. Acting Russian President Vladimir Putin wants to achieve peace through all-out victory. But he is unlikely to do so because his
war is not destroying the essential war-making resource of the Chechens -- their warrior youth. With Russia's democracy sufficiently
established to make genocide or mass deportation impossible, Putin's choices are restricted to an endless war inside Chechnya or the
republic's isolation behind a well-guarded perimeter. In Sudan, the fighting has been limited to some areas of the far south, and even
there it has been mostly seasonal. Neither a war restricted by outside interference nor a war so limited in scope can create the
preconditions for peace. Kashmir exhibits both the Chechen phenomenon of an imperial power unwilling to destroy or accommodate a
rebellious nationality and the interrupted-war syndrome. None of the Indo-Pakistan wars persisted long enough to bring peace to
Kashmir (in 1971, Pakistan was spared total defeat by American intervention). Now a nuclear stalemate has inaugurated a protracted
cold war. In Sri Lanka, ethnic war has continued for decades in the northeast, while foreign tourists continue to frequent tranquil
beaches in the south-west. Had the intensity of the fighting in the Jaffna peninsula been replicated throughout the island, the war
would have ended long ago. Angola has seen periods of intense fighting, mainly when the Luanda government had allies or
mercenaries fighting its battles, but the war with the rebels has been mostly localized and desultory. The
logic of strategy is
no more than a theoretical formulation of an almost physical process. Had World War II been
fought in fits and starts and in secondary theaters far from Germany and Japan, it would still
continue. That the paradoxical logic of strategy cannot exceed its limits is no excuse for the
current practice of systematically sabotaging war's peace-making potential by outside
interventions that are disinterested and therefore both arbitrary and usually inconclusive . Nor is it
an excuse for the U.N. and nongovernmental organizations (NGOS) to provide refugee assistance by permanent encampment, instead
of providing immediate humanitarian relief followed by a natural dispersion when quick repatriation is impossible. Such
an
intervention guarantees the perpetuation of refugee polities, the only possible ideology of
which is revanchist. This, in turn, guarantees perpetual war -- as in Rwanda's recent case. Again, had the U.N.
and today's plague of irresponsible, self-seeking NGOS existed in Europe's past, the continent would contain no stable states but only
vast camps of unreconciled refugees, still battling their ancient enemies.
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1NC – AIDS
Ending small wars increases the spread of AIDS
POST-GAZETTE.COM 5 (July 19, http://www.post-gazette.com/pg/05200/540074.stm)
Her report asserts that the
AIDS pandemic began with armies using mass rape as a weapon. But
Garrett's research found that "it is the peace following a long period of war that poses the
greatest risk." "It is in the euphoria of peace, with the demobilization of thousands of
combatants, return of refugees, opening of borders and sudden influx of trade, that HIV is
spread," Garrett wrote in the report.
--Disease O/W
Disease outweighs nuclear war
Dalton 1 (Alastair, journalist, “Deadly Virus Will Destroy Life on Earth,” THE SCOTSMAN, October 17, 2001, LN.)
HUMANS will have to move to other planets to survive a biological catastrophe that will hit the Earth within the next 1,000 years,
Professor Stephen Hawking warned yesterday. Theworld's most famous physicist said he was more worried
about a virus than nuclear weapons destroying life and said future generations would have to face living in space.
Prof Hawking said he was optimistic life would continue, but warned the danger of extinction remained because
of man's aggressive nature. Other leading scientists agreed that humans would have to take action to
avoid being wiped out like previous dominant Earth species, such as the dinosaurs , but said there was
no need for any immediate panic.
State collapse creates unique scenario for regional war in Africa that threatens vital
interests of great powers and causes global terrorism
Singer, 2 (Peter, John M. Olin Post-doctoral Fellow, Foreign Policy Studies at the Brookings Institution, Survival, Spring. This is not the bioethicist/activist Peter
Singer.)
The security danger of failed states extends beyond the simple human tragedy that is then
played out in the ensuring chaos and collapse. While stable states outside the region might
imagine themselves secure and able to stand aside from failed states, the realities of the global
system no longer permit this. At the very first brush, many of the regions that are most vulnerable to state
failure spurred by disease are of clear national interest concern to major state powers. The US,
for example, has greater economic investments in at risk areas in Africa than either the Middle
East or Eastern Europe. Equally, a number of individual states at risk, such as Angola, Nigeria, and South
Africa, are core regional allies, as well as critical suppliers of oil (roughly 1/5th of all US imports) and
strategic minerals.34 The threats of economic and/or political collapse from the disease can also
lead to new refugee flows. Besides facilitating the spread of the disease, time and time again,
sudden and massive population movements prompted by these factors have led to heightened
regional-wide tensions and destabilization.35 With the likely increase to pandemic levels on their doorsteps in the
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Caribbean and the former Soviet Union, American and European fears of past refugee crises (such as the 1990s Balkans wars and
Haitian collapse) could be revisited. Perhaps more important, in a direct security sense, is that failed
state zones tend to
become havens for the new enemies of global order. As the UN Special Envoy Lakhdar Brahimi noted, the events
of Sept. 11th were “…A wakeup call, [leading many]…to realize that even small countries, far away, like Afghanistan cannot be left to
sink to the depths to which Afghanistan has sunk.”36 Decaying
states give extremist groups freedom of
operation, with dangerous resulting consequences a world away. This hazard applies even to
seemingly disconnected state failures. Sierra Leone’s collapse in the 1990s, for example,
certainly was of little concern to policymakers in Washington and had little to do with radical
Islamic terrorist groups. The tiny West African state, nonetheless, has since served as a critical
node in the fundraising efforts of Osama bin Laden’s al Qaeda network.37
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the public-affairs nightmare that surrounds the use of child soldiers. In the reports on the initial
engagements with child soldiers, both the Arab and international press focused on the
immediate act of U.S. soldiers shooting Iraqi children, rather than on the context that led them to be forced into
such a terrible dilemma. The children were portrayed as heroic martyrs defending their homes, facing the American
Goliath. This image obviously damages U.S. public information efforts to demonstrate the
rightness of a cause or the special care U.S. and allied forces take to protect innocents. The
potential backlash could imperil already tenuous support from regional allies
and harden attitudes elsewhere against giving aid to the United States in the
broader war on terrorism. The backlash could increase popular support and recruiting for
terrorist groups, such as al-Qaeda, who could claim to be avenging the youth. Finally, the effect caused by
seeing photographs of tiny bodies could become potent fodder for congressional criticism
and antiwar protestors.(14) These points underscore the general proviso that military force should only be used when
and where objectives warrant.
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Nuclear war.
Friedberg and Schoenfeld, 8
[Aaron, Prof. Politics. And IR @ Princeton’s Woodrow Wilson School and Visiting
Scholar @ Witherspoon Institute, and Gabriel, Senior Editor of Commentary and
Wall Street Journal, “The Dangers of a Diminished America”, 10-28,
http://online.wsj.com/article/SB122455074012352571.html]
With the global financial system in serious trouble, is America's geostrategic dominance likely to
diminish? If so, what would that mean? One immediate implication of the crisis that began on Wall Street and spread across the
world is that the primary instruments of U.S. foreign policy will be crimped . The next president will face an
entirely new and adverse fiscal position. Estimates of this year's federal budget deficit already show that it has jumped $237 billion
from last year, to $407 billion. With families and businesses hurting, there will be calls for various and expensive domestic relief
programs. In the face of this onrushing river of red ink, both Barack Obama and John McCain have been reluctant to lay out what
portions of their programmatic wish list they might defer or delete. Only Joe Biden has suggested a possible reduction -- foreign aid.
This would be one of the few popular cuts, but in budgetary terms it is a mere grain of sand. Still, Sen. Biden's comment hints at where
we may be headed: toward a major reduction in America's world role, and perhaps even a new era of financially-
induced isolationism. Pressures to cut defense spending, and to dodge the cost of waging two wars, already
intense before this crisis, are likely to mount. Despite the success of the surge, the war in Iraq remains deeply unpopular.
Precipitous withdrawal -- attractive to a sizable swath of the electorate before the financial implosion -- might well
become even more popular with annual war bills running in the hundreds of billions. Protectionist sentiments are sure to grow
stronger as jobs disappear in the coming slowdown. Even before our current woes, calls to save jobs by restricting imports had begun
to gather support among many Democrats and some Republicans. In
a prolonged recession, gale-force winds of
protectionism will blow. Then there are the dolorous consequences of a potential collapse of the world's financial
architecture. For decades now, Americans have enjoyed the advantages of being at the center of that system. The worldwide use of the
dollar, and the stability of our economy, among other things, made it easier for us to run huge budget deficits, as we counted on
foreigners to pick up the tab by buying dollar-denominated assets as a safe haven. Will this be possible in the future? Meanwhile,
traditional foreign-policy challenges are multiplying. The threat from al Qaeda and Islamic
terrorist affiliates has not been extinguished. Iran and North Korea are continuing on their
bellicose paths, while Pakistan and Afghanistan are progressing smartly down the road to chaos.
Russia's new militancy and China's seemingly relentless rise also give cause for concern. If
America now tries to pull back from the world stage, it will leave a dangerous power vacuum.
The stabilizing effects of our presence in Asia, our continuing commitment to Europe, and our
position as defender of last resort for Middle East energy sources and supply lines could all be
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placed at risk. In such a scenario there are shades of the 1930s, when global trade and finance ground nearly
to a halt, the peaceful democracies failed to cooperate, and aggressive powers led by the remorseless fanatics
who rose up on the crest of economic disaster exploited their divisions. Today we run the risk
that rogue states may choose to become ever more reckless with their nuclear toys, just at our
moment of maximum vulnerability . The aftershocks of the financial crisis will almost certainly
rock our principal strategic competitors even harder than they will rock us . The dramatic free fall of the
Russian stock market has demonstrated the fragility of a state whose economic performance hinges on high oil prices,
now driven down by the global slowdown. China is perhaps even more fragile, its economic growth depending heavily on
foreign investment and access to foreign markets. Both will now be constricted, inflicting economic pain and perhaps even sparking
unrest in a country where political legitimacy rests on progress in the long march to prosperity. None
of this is good news if
the authoritarian leaders of these countries seek to divert attention from internal travails with
external adventures. As for our democratic friends, the present crisis comes when many European nations are struggling to
deal with decades of anemic growth, sclerotic governance and an impending demographic crisis. Despite its past dynamism, Japan
faces similar challenges. India is still in the early stages of its emergence as a world economic and geopolitical power. What does this all
mean? There is no substitute for America on the world stage . The choice we have before us is between the
potentially disastrous effects of disengagement and the stiff price tag of continued American leadership. Are we up for the task? The
American economy has historically demonstrated remarkable resilience. Our market-oriented ideology, entrepreneurial culture, flexible
institutions and favorable demographic profile should serve us well in whatever trials lie ahead. The American people, too, have shown
reserves of resolve when properly led. But experience after the Cold War era -- poorly articulated and executed policies, divisive
domestic debates and rising anti-Americanism in at least some parts of the world -- appear to have left these reserves diminished. A
recent survey by the Chicago Council on World Affairs found that 36% of respondents agreed that the U.S. should "stay out of world
affairs," the highest number recorded since this question was first asked in 1947. The economic crisis could be the straw
that breaks the camel's back.
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1NC – BioD
War preserves biodiversity—peace destroys it
McNEELY 2 (Jeffrey, Chief Scientist at IUCN, Conserving the Peace, www.iisd.org/pdf/2002/envsec_conserving_overview.pdf)
So while war is bad for biodiversity, peace can be even worse: in the 1960s, when Indonesia and
Malaysia were fighting over border claims on the island of Borneo, they did relatively little
damage to its vast wilderness, but in the 1990s they peacefully competed to cut down and sell
its forests; in Indonesia, the 1997–1998 forest fires that caused US$4.4 billion in damage were set primarily
by businesses and military to clear forests in order to plant various cash crops . Ironically, the prices of
these commodities that were to be grown have fallen considerably in recent years, making them even less profitable. Vietnam’s
forests are under greater pressure now that peace has arrived than they ever were during the
country’s wars; Nicaragua’s forests are now under renewed development pressures; and Laos is
paying at least part of its war debts to China and Vietnam with timber concessions; I was told in Laos
that the Chinese and Vietnamese timber merchants and logging companies are able to operate with impunity in Laos, irrespective of
logging regulations, protected area boundaries, or any other considerations. This is perhaps not surprising given the dependence of the
Pathet Lao on the support of Vietnam and China during the IndoChina wars. The
motivations may be more noble in
times of peace, but the impacts of inappropriate development on biodiversity following the end
of hostilities often are even worse than the impacts of war. Market forces may be more
destructive than military forces
watersheds through which ran the Ho Chi Minh trail, some of the most heavilybombed parts of
Indo-China during the second Vietnam War, have more recently been remarkably productive in
discoveries of previously unknown species. The discoveries of new large mammals include two species of muntjak or
barking deer (Megamuntiacus vuquangensis and Muntiacus truongsonensis), a unique variety of forest antelope (Pseudoryx
nghetinhensis), and a bovid ultimately related to wild cattle (Pseudonovibos spiralis) (Dillon and Wikramanyake, 1997) as well as the
rediscovery of a species of pig that formerly was known only by a few fragmentary specimens. That such species could
survive in such a heavily-bombed area is testimony to the recuperative power of nature and the
ability of wildlife to withstand even the most extreme kinds of human pressure during warfare.
Interestingly, these species now are even more severely threatened by the peacetime activities
of development than they were by the Indochina wars . Some other species are likely to have benefited from the
war in Vietnam. Orians and Pfeiffer (1970: 553) say that tigers “have learned to associate the sounds of gunfire
with the presence of dead and wounded humanbeings in the vicinity. As a result, tigers rapidly
move toward gunfire and apparently consume large numbers of battle casualties. Although there are
no accurate statistics on the tiger populations past or present, it is likely that the tiger population has increased much
as the wolf population in Poland increased during World War II.” Fairhead and Leach (1995) report that parts
of the Ziama region of Guinea, which includes an extensive biosphere reserve, became forested following a series of wars that affected
the area from 1870 to 1910. The resident Toma people first fought with Mandinka groups from the north and subsequently with the
French colonial armies, causing major depopulation and economic devastation that in turn allowed the forest to reclaim agricultural
land. The human disaster of war enabled nature to recover.
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--BioD O/W
Biodiversity loss outweighs all other considerations – there’s no point of return
Coyne and Hoekstra, 7 - *professor in the Department of Ecology and Evolution at the University of Chicago AND ** Associate
Professor in the Department of Organismic and Evolutionary Biology at Harvard University (Jerry and Hopi, The New Republic, “The Greatest
Dying,” 9/24, http://www.truthout.org/article/jerry-coyne-and-hopi-e-hoekstra-the-greatest-dying)
Aside from the Great Dying, there have been four other mass extinctions, all of which severely pruned life's diversity. Scientists agree
that we're now in the midst of a sixth such episode. This new one, however, is different - and, in many ways, much worse. For, unlike
earlier extinctions, this one results from the work of a single species, Homo sapiens.We are relentlessly taking over the planet, laying it
to waste and eliminating most of our fellow species. Moreover, we're doing it much faster than the mass extinctions that came before.
Every year, up to 30,000 species disappear due to human activity alone . At this rate, we could lose
half of Earth's species in this century . And, unlike with previous extinctions, there's no hope that
biodiversity will ever recover, since the cause of the decimation - us - is here to stay . To scientists,
this is an unparalleled calamity, far more severe than global warming, which is, after all, only one of many threats to biodiversity. Yet
global warming gets far more press. Why? One reason is that, while the increase in temperature is easy to document, the decrease of
species is not. Biologists don't know, for example, exactly how many species exist on Earth. Estimates range widely, from three million
to more than 50 million, and that doesn't count microbes, critical (albeit invisible) components of ecosystems. We're not certain about
the rate of extinction, either; how could we be, since the vast majority of species have yet to be described? We're even less sure how
the loss of some species will affect the ecosystems in which they're embedded, since the intricate connection between organisms
means that the loss of a single species can ramify unpredictably. But we do know some things. Tropical rainforests are disappearing
at a rate of 2 percent per year. Populations of most large fish are down to only 10 percent of what they were in 1950. Many primates
and all the great apes - our closest relatives - are nearly gone from the wild. And we know that extinction and global warming act
synergistically. Extinction exacerbates global warming: By burning rainforests, we're not only polluting the atmosphere with carbon
dioxide (a major greenhouse gas) but destroying the very plants that can remove this gas from the air. Conversely, global warming
increases extinction, both directly (killing corals) and indirectly (destroying the habitats of Arctic and Antarctic animals). As extinction
increases, then, so does global warming, which in turn causes more extinction - and so on, into a downward spiral of destruction.
Why, exactly, should we care? Let's start with the most celebrated case: the rainforests. Their loss will worsen global warming -
raising temperatures, melting icecaps, and flooding coastal cities. And, as the forest habitat shrinks, so begins the inevitable contact
between organisms that have not evolved together, a scenario played out many times, and one that is never good. Dreadful diseases
have successfully jumped species boundaries, with humans as prime recipients. We have gotten aids from apes, sars from civets, and
Ebola from fruit bats. Additional worldwide plagues from unknown microbes are a very real possibility. But it isn't just the
destruction of the rainforests that should trouble us. Healthy
ecosystems the world over provide hidden
services like waste disposal, nutrient cycling, soil formation, water purification, and oxygen
production. Such services are best rendered by ecosystems that are diverse. Yet, through both intention and accident, humans
have introduced exotic species that turn biodiversity into monoculture. Fast-growing zebra mussels, for example, have outcompeted
more than 15 species of native mussels in North America's Great Lakes and have damaged harbors and water-treatment plants. Native
prairies are becoming dominated by single species (often genetically homogenous) of corn or wheat. Thanks to these developments,
soils will erode and become unproductive - which, along with temperature change, will diminish agricultural yields. Meanwhile,with
increased pollution and runoff, as well as reduced forest cover, ecosystems will no longer be
able to purify water; and a shortage of clean water spells disaster . In many ways, oceans are the most
vulnerable areas of all. As overfishing eliminates major predators, while polluted and warming waters kill off phytoplankton, the
intricate aquatic food web could collapse from both sides. Fish, on which so many humans depend, will be a fond memory. As
phytoplankton vanish, so does the ability of the oceans to absorb carbon dioxide and produce oxygen. (Half of the oxygen we breathe is
made by phytoplankton, with the rest coming from land plants.) Species extinction is also imperiling coral reefs - a major problem since
these reefs have far more than recreational value: They provide tremendous amounts of food for human populations and buffer
coastlines against erosion. In fact, the global value of "hidden" services provided by ecosystems - those services, like waste disposal,
that aren't bought and sold in the marketplace - has been estimated to be as much as $50 trillion per year, roughly equal to the gross
domestic product of all countries combined. And that doesn't include tangible goods like fish and timber. Life
as we know it
would be impossible if ecosystems collapsed. Yet that is where we're heading if species extinction continues at its
current pace. Extinction also has a huge impact on medicine. Who really cares if, say, a worm in the remote swamps of French Guiana
goes extinct? Well, those who suffer from cardiovascular disease. The recent discovery of a rare South American leech has led to the
isolation of a powerful enzyme that, unlike other anticoagulants, not only prevents blood from clotting but also dissolves existing clots.
And it's not just this one species of worm: Its wriggly relatives have evolved other biomedically valuable proteins, including antistatin (a
potential anticancer agent), decorsin and ornatin (platelet aggregation inhibitors), and hirudin (another anticoagulant). Plants, too,
are pharmaceutical gold mines. The bark of trees, for example, has given us quinine (the first cure for malaria), taxol (a drug highly
effective against ovarian and breast cancer), and aspirin. More than a quarter of the medicines on our pharmacy shelves were originally
derived from plants. The sap of the Madagascar periwinkle contains more than 70 useful alkaloids, including vincristine, a powerful
anticancer drug that saved the life of one of our friends. Of the roughly 250,000 plant species on Earth, fewer than 5 percent have
been screened for pharmaceutical properties. Who knows what life-saving drugs remain to be discovered? Given current extinction
rates, it's estimated that we're losing one valuable drug every two years. Our arguments so far have tacitly assumed that species are
worth saving only in proportion to their economic value and their effects on our quality of life, an attitude that is strongly ingrained,
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especially in Americans. That is why conservationists always base their case on an economic calculus. But we biologists know in our
hearts that there are deeper and equally compelling reasons to worry about the loss of biodiversity: namely, simple morality and
intellectual values that transcend pecuniary interests. What, for example, gives us the right to destroy other creatures? And what could
be more thrilling than looking around us, seeing that we are surrounded by our evolutionary cousins, and realizing that we all got here
by the same simple process of natural selection? To biologists, and potentially everyone else, apprehending the genetic kinship and
common origin of all species is a spiritual experience - not necessarily religious, but spiritual nonetheless, for it stirs the soul. But,
whether or not one is moved by such concerns, it is certain that our future is bleak if we do nothing to stem this sixth extinction. We
are creating a world in which exotic diseases flourish but natural medicinal cures are lost; a world in which carbon waste accumulates
while food sources dwindle; a world of sweltering heat, failing crops, and impure water. In the end, we
must accept the
possibility that we ourselves are not immune to extinction . Or, if we survive, perhaps only a few
of us will remain, scratching out a grubby existence on a devastated planet. Global warming will
seem like a secondary problem when humanity finally faces the consequences of what we have
done to nature: not just another Great Dying, but perhaps the greatest dying of them all.
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impossible to cure. The ideal incubator for the Lyme bacterium is the white-footed mouse, a
remarkable survivor in fragmented habitats. Infected mice don't get sick, but they allow the
pathogen to multiply and pass it on to ticks who feed on all the local mammals, including
humans. Other kinds of forest life—opossums, thrushes, flying squirrels—don't transmit the
disease as well to ticks (they're "incompetent hosts"), but fewer and fewer of them remain in
the forests. The rising incidence of Lyme disease—27,000 cases in the U.S. in 2007—is a direct result of disappearing forests and
the decline of species. "The more nonmouse hosts you have in an ecosystem," Ostfeld says, "the more of the ticks' blood meals will be
taken off a host that will not infect them. That will make more of the ticks harmless." Instead, ticks are finding their way to more
disease-bearing mice because the mice are increasingly rid of both their competitors and their predators—foxes, weasels, owls. A one-
or two-acre scrap of forest poses five times more risk for Lyme disease than a habitat of even five or six acres, with just a few more
diverse species. A similar lack of ecological complexity is responsible for the respiratory disease caused by hantavirus—which has a
staggering mortality rate of one in three cases—and the neurological disease caused by West Nile virus. These are not risks limited to
bushwhackers and remote rice farmers. West Nile virus landed in New York City in 1999 and, by 2004, reached the West Coast, having
found ready reservoir hosts in several common bird species and effective mosquito carriers. "We had vectors, in a sense, sitting in
wait," says Ostfeld. "All we needed was the virus to jump the pond." The risk of infection rises as the number of bird species falls: living
in a town with more than just the common run of birds—American robins, house sparrows, blue jays and common grackles—makes
you 10 times less likely to be infected. But there's a reason that most populated areas don't have much more than the common run,
Ostfeld explains. "Those happen to be the bird species that do really well in human-disturbed landscapes."
Nuclear war.
Friedberg and Schoenfeld, 8
[Aaron, Prof. Politics. And IR @ Princeton’s Woodrow Wilson School and Visiting
Scholar @ Witherspoon Institute, and Gabriel, Senior Editor of Commentary and
Wall Street Journal, “The Dangers of a Diminished America”, 10-28,
http://online.wsj.com/article/SB122455074012352571.html]
With the global financial system in serious trouble, is America's geostrategic dominance likely to
diminish? If so, what would that mean? One immediate implication of the crisis that began on Wall Street and spread across the
world is that the primary instruments of U.S. foreign policy will be crimped . The next president will face an
entirely new and adverse fiscal position. Estimates of this year's federal budget deficit already show that it has jumped $237 billion
from last year, to $407 billion. With families and businesses hurting, there will be calls for various and expensive domestic relief
programs. In the face of this onrushing river of red ink, both Barack Obama and John McCain have been reluctant to lay out what
portions of their programmatic wish list they might defer or delete. Only Joe Biden has suggested a possible reduction -- foreign aid.
This would be one of the few popular cuts, but in budgetary terms it is a mere grain of sand. Still, Sen. Biden's comment hints at where
we may be headed: toward a major reduction in America's world role, and perhaps even a new era of financially-
induced isolationism. Pressures to cut defense spending, and to dodge the cost of waging two wars, already
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1NC – Oil
African instability key to increasing oil prices
Thompson 7 (Christopher, reporter for the Black Agenda Report, a journal about African American political thought and action.
The
Scramble for Africa’s Oil. June 20, http://www.blackagendareport.com/index.php?option=com_content&task=view&id=255&Itemid=37)
"Within a decade, the US will be heavily dependent on African oil . Little wonder the Pentagon is preparing a
strategy for the region." This article originally appeared in The New Statesman (UK). The Pentagon is to reorganize its military
command structure in response to growing fears that the United States is seriously ill-equipped to fight the war against terrorism in
Africa. It is a dramatic move, and an admission that the US must reshape its whole military policy if it is to maintain control of Africa for
the duration of what Donald Rumsfeld has called "the long war." Suddenly
the world's most neglected continent is
assuming an increasing global importance as the international oil industry begins to exploit
more and more of the west coast of Africa's abundant reserves . The Pentagon at present has five geographic
Unified Combatant Commands around the world, and responsibility for Africa is awkwardly divided among three of these. Most of
Africa - a batch of 43 countries - falls under the European Command (Eucom), with the remainder divided between the Pacific
Command and Central Command (which also runs the wars in Iraq and Afghanistan). Now the Pentagon - under the Joint Chiefs of Staff
and the defense department - is working on formal proposals for a unified military command for the continent under the name
"Africom." This significant shift in US relations with Africa comes in the face of myriad threats: fierce economic competition from Asia;
increasing resource nationalism in Russia and South America; and instability in the Middle East that threatens to spill over into Africa.
"The US must reshape its whole military policy if it is to maintain control of Africa ." The Pentagon
hopes to finalize Africom's structure, location and budget this year. The expectation is that it can break free from Eucom and become
operative by mid-2008. "The break from Europe will occur before 30 September 2008," Professor Peter Pham, a US adviser on Africa to
the Pentagon told the New Statesman. "The independent command should be up and running by this time next year." A Pentagon
source says the new command, which was originally given the green light by the controversial former US defense secretary Donald
Rumsfeld, is likely to be led by William "Kip" Ward, the US army's only four-star African-American general. In 2005, Ward was appointed
the US security envoy to the Middle East and he is reportedly close to President George W. Bush. He also has boots-on-the-ground
experience in Africa: he was a commander during Bill Clinton's ill-fated mission in Somalia in 1993 and he served as a military
America's new Africa strategy reflects its
representative in Egypt in 1998. Ward is now the deputy head of Eucom.
key priorities in the Middle East: oil and counter-terrorism. Currently, the US has in place the loosely defined
Trans-Sahara Counter-Terrorism Initiative, incorporating an offshoot of Operation Enduring Freedom that is intended to keep terrorist
networks out of the vast, unguarded Sahel. But the lack of a coherent and unified policy on Africa is, according to some observers,
hampering America's efforts in the Middle East. US military sources estimate that up to a quarter of all foreign fighters in Iraq are from
Africa, mostly from Algeria and Morocco. Moreover, there is increasing alarm within the US defense establishment at the creeping
"radicalization" of Africa's Muslims, helped along by the export of hardline, Wahhabi-style clerics from the Arabian peninsula. "The
terrorist challenge [has] increased in Africa in the past year - it's gotten a new lease on life," according to Pham. But it is the west's
increasing dependency on African oil that gives particular urgency to these new directions in the fight against terrorism. Africa's
enormous, and largely untapped, reserves are already more important to the west than most Americans recognize. In March 2006,
speaking before the Senate armed services committee, General James Jones, the then head of Eucom, said: " Africa
currently
provides over 15 per cent of US oil imports, and recent explorations in the Gulf of Guinea region
indicate potential reserves that could account for 25-35 per cent of US imports within the next
decade." "Africa's enormous, and largely untapped, reserves are already more important to the west
than most Americans recognize." These high-quality reserves - West African oil is typically low in sulphur and
thus ideal for refining - are easily accessible by sea to western Europe and the US . In 2005, the US
imported more oil from the Gulf of Guinea than it did from Saudi Arabia and Kuwait combined.
Within the next ten years it will import more oil from Africa than from the entire Middle East.
Western oil giants such as ExxonMobil, Chevron, France's Total and Britain's BP and Shell plan to invest tens of
billions of dollars in sub-Saharan Africa (far in excess of "aid" inflows to the region). But though the Gulf of Guinea is
one of the few parts of the world where oil production is poised to increase exponentially in the near future, it is
also one of the most unstable.
In Nigeria, political corruption, criminal networks, violent Islamist groups, and domestic rebels
threaten to take the world's eighth-largest oil exporter off the market . It is estimated that 70,000 to
300,000 barrels of oil are stolen daily in Nigeria. Even at the low end of this estimate, this would generate more
than $1.5 billion every year -- more than enough capital to buy arms and political influence and
threaten the government's survival. Another 500,000 bpd have been taken off the market by the recent kidnappings and
violence perpetuated by the Movement for the Emancipation of the People of the Niger Delta. [See: "Intelligence Brief: Iran, Nigeria"]
In the midst of this instability, the world's largest and second-largest oil importers are playing an increasingly dangerous game of power
politics. For both Washington and Beijing, the nightmare of rebel groups halting oil extraction in the
delta -- which will dry up revenues on which the northern elites depend, potentially leading to a northern
Muslim general ousting the president -- appears distinctly possible.
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The price of oil is what investors look to when making investment decisions – high oil
prices cause alternative energy investment
Huang et. al 11 (Alex YiHou, Department of Finance, Yuan Ze University, Taiwan, Chiao-Ming Cheng Graduate School of Management, Yuan Ze University,
Taiwan, Chih-Chun Chen Graduate School of Management, Yuan Ze University, Taiwan, Wen-Cheng Hu Graduate School of Management, Yuan Ze University, Taiwan “Oil
Prices and Stock Prices of Alternative Energy Companies: Time Varying Relationship with Recent Evidence” http://www.southwesternfinance.org/conf-
2011/swfa2011_submission_30.pdf kdej)
In sum, whileprice uncertainty of crude oil rises and green energy gains greater deal of attention
in recent years, the interrelationships between oil prices and stock performances of alternative
energy companies become more significant. For Periods I and II, time before the Lebanon War from 2001 to
late 2006, no causality is shown from oil prices to ECO index or vice verse, implying that the movements of crude oil prices
when oil
do not affect how the investors trade with the stocks of alternative energy industry. In the most recent period,
prices reach historical high and crash back with volatile dynamics, oil price behavior becomes
responsible for stock performances of alternative energy companies . Also only recently, the
dynamics in oil trading also depend on how stocks of oil companies perform . These results add to
literature showing that investors of alternative energy companies conduct their trading decisions
upon observation of crude oil price shocks. The two markets, i.e. crude oil market and stock market
for green energy sector, seem to be more closely interactive with each other. The full picture of how the
crude oil markets react to the development of green energy, however, requires additional examinations and is certainly an
area worthy of future exploration.
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--Warming O/W
Warming causes all scenarios for war and makes them more
destructive
Schwarts, 3 Peter Schwartz, chair of the Global Business Network, and Doug Randall, co-head of the Global Business Network’s
consulting practice, October ‘3 (An Abrupt Climate Change Scenario and Its Implications for United States National Security, p. Google)
Today, carrying capacity, which is the ability for the Earth and its natural ecosystems including social, economic, and cultural
systems to support the finite number of people on the planet, is being challenged around the world. According to the
International Energy Agency, global demand for oil will grow by 66% in the next 30 years, but it’s unclear where the supply will come
from. Clean water is similarly constrained in many areas around the world. With 815 million people receiving insufficient sustenance
worldwide, some would say that as a globe, we’re living well above our carrying capacity, meaning there are not sufficient natural
resources to sustain our behavior. Many point to technological innovation and adaptive behavior as a means for managing the global
ecosystem. Indeed it has been technological progress that has increased carrying capacity over time. Over centuries we have learned
how to produce more food, energy and access more water. But will the potential of new technologies be sufficient when a crisis like the
one outlined in this scenario hits? Abrupt
climate change is likely to stretch carrying capacity well beyond
its already precarious limits. And there’s a natural tendency or need for carrying capacity to become realigned. As
abrupt climate change lowers the world’s carrying capacity aggressive wars are likely to be
fought over food, water, and energy. Deaths from war as well as starvation and disease will decrease population size,
which overtime, will re-balance with carrying capacity. When you look at carrying capacity on a regional or state level it is apparent that
those nations with a high carrying capacity, such as the United States and Western Europe, are likely to adapt most effectively to abrupt
changes in climate, because, relative to their population size, they have more resources to call on. This may give rise to a more severe
have, have-not mentality, causing resentment toward those nations with a higher carrying capacity. It may lead to finger-pointing and
blame, as the wealthier nations tend to use more energy and emit more greenhouse gasses such as CO2 into the atmosphere. Less
important than the scientifically proven relationship between CO2 emissions and climate change is the perception that impacted
nations have – and the actions they take. The Link Between Carrying Capacity and Warfare Steven LeBlanc,Harvard
archaeologist and author of a new book called Carrying Capacity, describes the relationship between carrying capacity and
warfare. Drawing on abundant archaeological and ethnological data, LeBlanc argues that historically humans conducted organized
warfare for a variety of reasons, including warfare over resources and the environment. Humans fight when they outstrip
the carrying capacity of their natural environment. Every time there is a choice between starving and raiding,
humans raid. From hunter/gatherers through agricultural tribes, chiefdoms, and early complex societies, 25% of a population’s adult
males die when war breaks out. Peace occurs when carrying capacity goes up, as with the invention of agriculture,
newly effective bureaucracy, remote trade and technological breakthroughs. Also a large scale die-back such as from plague can make
for peaceful times---Europe after its major plagues, North American natives after European diseases decimated their populations
(that's the difference between the Jamestown colony failure and Plymouth Rock success). But such peaceful periods are short-lived
because population quickly rises to once again push against carrying capacity, and warfare resumes. Indeed, over the millennia most
societies define themselves according to their ability to conduct war, and warrior culture becomes deeply ingrained. The most
combative societies are the ones that survive. However in the last three centuries, LeBlanc points out, advanced
states have
steadily lowered the body count even though individual wars and genocides have grown larger in scale.
Instead of slaughtering all their enemies in the traditional way, for example, states merely kill enough to get a victory and then put the
survivors to work in their newly expanded economy. States also use their own bureaucracies, advanced technology, and
international rules of behavior to raise carrying capacity and bear a more careful relationship to it. All of that
progressive behavior could collapse if carrying capacities everywhere were suddenly lowered
drastically by abrupt climate change. Humanity would revert to its norm of constant battles for
diminishing resources, which the battles themselves would further reduce even beyond the climatic effects. Once again
warfare would define human life.
is unlikely to cause human extinction though. While several countries have nuclear weapons,
there are few with the firepower to annihilate the world. For those nations it would be suicidal to exercise that
option. The pattern is that the more destructive technology a nation has, the more it tends
towards rational behavior. Sophisticated precision weapons then become better tactical
options. The bigger danger comes from nuclear weapons in the hands of terrorists with the help
of a rogue state, such as North Korea. The size of such an explosion would not be sufficient to
threaten humanity as a whole. Instead it could trigger a major war or even world war. Under this
scenario human extinction would only be possible if other threats were present, such as disease and
climate change. We monitor war separately. However we also need to incorporate the dangers here .
Even if we don’t win a 100% risk of warming vote to stop warming - need to avoid large
impacts.
Goodman, 7 Sheri Goodman [et al.], Executive Director of the Military Advisory Board, The CNA Corporation, ‘7 (National security and
the threat of climate change, The CNA Corporation Military Advisory Board, Google)
Adm. Bowman notes that today, a raging debate is underway over a potential set of climate-induced global
changes that could have a profound impact on America’s national security interests. Our Military Advisory Board has heard the
arguments, some depicting neardoomsday scenarios of severe weather and oceanic changes exacerbated by man-made emissions of
greenhouse gases to our environment, others depicting a much less severe outcome as merely one in many observed cyclic weather
patterns over time, with virtually no man-made component. Adm. Bowman concludes that regardless of the probability of
the occurrence, the projected weather-driven global events could be dire and could adversely
affect our national security and military options significantly. He therefore argues that the prudent course is to
begin planning, as we have in submarine operations, to develop a similar defense in depth that would reduce national security
risks even if this is a low probability event, given the potential magnitude of the consequences . He
feels that as the debate over cause, effect, and magnitude continues, we in the military should begin now to take action to provide a
resilient defense against the effects of severe climate change, not only within our own borders, but also to provide resiliency to those
regions of unrest and stress that already are threatening our national security today.
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power-broker mullahs have relied on the support of the (much bribed) bazaaris, the nation's
merchants. While we obsess about feeble student protests, the bazaaris form the constituency the mullahs
dare not alienate. Regime change may come from within . By contrast, Venezuela's power is a charade. The
regime of Hugo Chavez can't survive without a constant transfusion of petrodollars. Chavez buys votes - and you can't buy votes with
empty pockets. Chavez is far more bluster than bravery. Facing empty coffers, his rhetoric will intensify - but he's not going to invade
anyone (he'd lose). And the left-wing regimes that rely on him will have to find a new sugar daddy. A bankrupt Chavez won't survive
long - he's no Fidel Castro. The question is whether he'd respect a popular vote that went against him or go out in a splash of blood.
Bottom line on bankrupt enemies: Russia's dangerous; Iran's
dangerous, but vulnerable; Venezuela's just vulnerable. There
may be serious trouble ahead. For now, though, it's satisfying to watch the wicked suffer.
how secure would the Russian nuclear arsenal remain? It may be that the financial impact of the Global
Economic Crisis is its least dangerous consequence.
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Decreased oil prices cause Iranian nuclearization and Saudi civil war
Arena Resources 7. (“Why Flooding the Worldwide Market Place with Oil Will Not Stop Iran from Achieving their Nuclear Ambitions,”
on January 11, 2007 from http://doktorstocks.blogspot.com/2007/01/why-flooding-worldwide-market-place.html)
Iran vs. OPEC. OPEC would be badly damaged. Any price cuts would not only bring down the Iranian economy but also the
economy of Saudi Arabia and all the rest of the OPEC countries. The OPEC countries are not willing to allow self inflicted
wounds to their economies. Damage to the Saudi Economy would do more harm to their economy than Iran. A damaged Saudi
economy could drive their citizens to revolt and a more dangerous radical regime could emerge
to power in that country. FSU and Lower Prices Sharply lower oil prices could create incentive for the FSU
to sell some of their nuclear warheads on the black market. Iran would be a customer. In summary,
lower oil prices will not stop Iran from building a nuclear arsenal . Investors should doubt any conspiracy
theories that surround Saudi Arabia opening the wellheads to flood the worldwide marketplace with oil in order to drive down prices
and bankrupt Iran. Such
a move would increase instability within Saudi Arabia, threaten the very
existence of the Saudi monarchy and would not stop Iran from becoming a nuclear power. The only way to prevent Iran
from becoming a nuclear power is the use of military force.
1NC – Overpopulation
1. Halting overpopulation in Africa is key to stability for the rest of the world.
Hira, 7 Anil Hira, Professor of Political Science at Simon Fraiser University. The Futurist, May 1, 2007. Pg. 27(6) Vol. 41 No. 3 ISSN: 0016-
3317. “Time for a global welfare system?”
Healthy families where women have the opportunity to work have fewer children. This means slower
population growth,
which reducespressures on immigration, the creation of new terrorists, and competition linked to
weak labor and environmental standards. The slash-and-burn agricultural practices that are
destroying the rain forests and the desperate turn to narcotrafficking or to jobs in sweatshop conditions to
support oneself would all be diminishing enterprises, if we treated one of the chief causes
rather than symptoms of global problems . Reducing population pressure is a chicken-and-egg problem. Urbanization
reduces family size, as do access to contraceptives, education, and health care. Ensuring female access to education and health care are
the surest ways to reduce population growth without controversy over abortions or contraceptive use. More-prosperous families are
healthier and provide a productive contribution, rather than a drain or threat, to the global economy. However, huge
populations in developing countries, even at a reduced pace, make such transformations seem glacially
slow and overwhelming. The fastest-growing populations , indeed, are in the poorest regions, including South
Asia and sub-Saharan Africa. A global system is needed to accelerate the change to a low-
population, high-quality-of-life economy. Without such attention, the average American,
Japanese, European, and Canadian will find it impossible to compete with the thousands of hungry, hard-
working, and, in Asia, well-educated growing middle classes. Such a system would ensure that no one starves , that
labor has reasonable bargaining rights, that a policy that respects the environmentis enforceable , and that basic
human rights are afforded to all. Indeed, the one major global welfare transfer, namely, the Marshall Plan, set the world on a growth
spree for two decades, simultaneously creating new markets while lifting millions out of poverty. By recognizing that we are now living
in a global economy, we simply move to regulate that economy so it can thrive. Not only do we reduce the costs of such problems as
terrorism, pandemics, and environmental degradation, but we can create a whole new generation of consumers.
1NC – Russia
Africa Conflict Is A Key Export Market For Russian Arms
OXFORD ANALYTICA 3 (l/N)
Russia's arms industries are re-establishing structured relationships — military-technical agreements' --
with former client states in Africa, covering maintenance and after-sales support as well as new or used military
equipment sales. Russia's penetration of the African market, and the scale and type of arms
transfers it has signed, can be seen as both a symptom and a potential cause of inter-slate
tension on the continent.
--Russia Econ UQ
Russian economy high now
Russia & CIS Banking & Finance Weekly 10 (“Russian GDP up estimated 2.9% in Q1 – Rosstat,” 5/14/10, Lexis)
Russian GDP grew around 2.9% year-on-year in Q1 2010, the Federal State Statistics Service (Rosstat)
said in its preliminary estimate for the period. Economic Development Minister Elvira Nabiullina also said on May 14 that GDP rose
something like 2.9% in the quarter. The Russian Economic Development Ministry said at the end of April, though, that GDP might have
grown 4.5% year-on-year in Q1. The Rosstat said it estimates GDP shrank 7.9% in 2009. The Econ Ministry forecasts at
least 4% growth in 2010.
Competitive arms exports are key to the Russian economy and defense
RIVLIN 5 (Dr. Paul, Jaffee Center for Strategic Studies. Moshe Dayan Center for Middle Eastern & African Studies, The Russian Economy
and Arms Exports to the Middle East, November, www.tau.ac.il/jcss/memoranda/memo79.pdf)
Russia’s military exports played a vital role in its economic turnaround . Acritical part of the Soviet legacy
was a large arms industry, a function of the Soviet Union's political isolation and its experiences in the Second World War and the Cold
War. Soviet policy meant that arms transfers were made primarily for political reasons and the economy paid the price through large
government subsidies. When the Cold War ended and Russia emerged as an independent state, local
demand for its defense products collapsed . Russia could no longer afford to give away arms as the Soviet Union had
done, and its ability to buy influence decreased. The need to export arms for economic reasons increased at the
same time as the ideological imperative declined. For Russia, selling arms thus became a vital source of foreign
economic exchange and a way of financing defense industries threatened with closure. As such,
the industry, part of which is relatively technologically advanced, preserves employment at
home, especially of key personnel, and helps to maintain markets and influence abroad .
--A2: Resilient
Russian economy is not resilient—incomplete privatization makes it vulnerable to shocks
BBC WORLDWIDE MONITORING 8 (Text of report by popular Russian newspaper Moskovskiy
Komsomolets on 6 October)
Over the almost two decades that have passed since the collapse of the USSR, our economy, it would seem, has changed
unrecognizably. But the scourge of the Soviet planned economy -monopoly-operation -is still alive , as if
no one had ever fought it. "Our economy has turned into a giant state corporation where officially
private structures are playing the role of mere cogs ," a former important official in the government apparatus told
me. "And not just a state corporation but a retro-style state corporation. Moreover, the monopoly that exists at a
federal level is reproduced in each region and in each specific settlement. Look, for example, at
the extent to which small and medium-sized businesses are hemmed in, despite all the solemn
statements from the very top! Such a system kills competition and in the long term is not
competitive under crisis conditions."
======Conflict/Instability Bad======
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***Conflict Bad***
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1NC – China
Instability undercuts Chinese oil supplies, leading to economic collapse
Pan, 7 Esther Pan. “China, Africa, and Oil,” Council on Foreign Relations, 1/26, 2007
http://www.cfr.org/publication/9557/china_africa_and_oil.html
China's booming economy, which has averaged 9 percent growth per year for the last two
decades, requires massive levels of natural resources to sustain its growth. Once the largest oil exporter in
Asia, China became a net importer of oil in 1993. By 2045, China is projected to depend on imported oil for 45
percent of its energy needs. The country needs to lock in supplies from relatively low-cost
African or Middle Eastern sources, experts say. But after the terrorist attacks of September 11, 2001, and the subsequent
upheaval throughout the Middle East, China is actively trying to diversify its supply lines away from Middle
Eastern crude. Experts say China has adopted an aid-for-oil strategy that has resulted in increasing
supplies of oil from African countries.
1NC – Oil
1. African instability wreaks havoc on the oil market – and the US is dependent on its
supply
Thompson 7 (Christopher, reporter for the Black Agenda Report, a journal about African American political thought and action. The
Scramble for Africa’s Oil. June 20, http://www.blackagendareport.com/index.php?option=com_content&task=view&id=255&Itemid=37)
"Within a decade, the US will be heavily dependent on African oil . Little wonder the Pentagon is preparing a
strategy for the region." This article originally appeared in The New Statesman (UK). The Pentagon is to reorganize its military
command structure in response to growing fears that the United States is seriously ill-equipped to fight the war against terrorism in
Africa. It is a dramatic move, and an admission that the US must reshape its whole military policy if it is to maintain control of Africa for
the duration of what Donald Rumsfeld has called "the long war." Suddenly
the world's most neglected continent is
assuming an increasing global importance as the international oil industry begins to exploit
more and more of the west coast of Africa's abundant reserves. The Pentagon at present has five geographic
Unified Combatant Commands around the world, and responsibility for Africa is awkwardly divided among three of these. Most of
Africa - a batch of 43 countries - falls under the European Command (Eucom), with the remainder divided between the Pacific
Command and Central Command (which also runs the wars in Iraq and Afghanistan). Now the Pentagon - under the Joint Chiefs of Staff
and the defense department - is working on formal proposals for a unified military command for the continent under the name
"Africom." This significant shift in US relations with Africa comes in the face of myriad threats: fierce economic competition from Asia;
increasing resource nationalism in Russia and South America; and instability in the Middle East that threatens to spill over into Africa.
"The US must reshape its whole military policy if it is to maintain control of Africa ." The Pentagon
hopes to finalize Africom's structure, location and budget this year. The expectation is that it can break free from Eucom and become
operative by mid-2008. "The break from Europe will occur before 30 September 2008," Professor Peter Pham, a US adviser on Africa to
the Pentagon told the New Statesman. "The independent command should be up and running by this time next year." A Pentagon
source says the new command, which was originally given the green light by the controversial former US defense secretary Donald
Rumsfeld, is likely to be led by William "Kip" Ward, the US army's only four-star African-American general. In 2005, Ward was appointed
the US security envoy to the Middle East and he is reportedly close to President George W. Bush. He also has boots-on-the-ground
experience in Africa: he was a commander during Bill Clinton's ill-fated mission in Somalia in 1993 and he served as a military
America's new Africa strategy reflects its
representative in Egypt in 1998. Ward is now the deputy head of Eucom.
key priorities in the Middle East: oil and counter-terrorism. Currently, the US has in place the loosely defined
Trans-Sahara Counter-Terrorism Initiative, incorporating an offshoot of Operation Enduring Freedom that is intended to keep terrorist
networks out of the vast, unguarded Sahel. But the lack of a coherent and unified policy on Africa is, according to some observers,
hampering America's efforts in the Middle East. US military sources estimate that up to a quarter of all foreign fighters in Iraq are from
Africa, mostly from Algeria and Morocco. Moreover, there is increasing alarm within the US defense establishment at the creeping
"radicalization" of Africa's Muslims, helped along by the export of hardline, Wahhabi-style clerics from the Arabian peninsula. "The
terrorist challenge [has] increased in Africa in the past year - it's gotten a new lease on life," according to Pham. But it is the west's
increasing dependency on African oil that gives particular urgency to these new directions in the fight against terrorism. Africa's
enormous, and largely untapped, reserves are already more important to the west than most Americans recognize. In March 2006,
speaking before the Senate armed services committee, General James Jones, the then head of Eucom, said: " Africa
currently
provides over 15 per cent of US oil imports, and recent explorations in the Gulf of Guinea region
indicate potential reserves that could account for 25-35 per cent of US imports within the next
decade." "Africa's enormous, and largely untapped, reserves are already more important to the west
than most Americans recognize." These high-quality reserves - West African oil is typically low in sulphur and
thus ideal for refining - are easily accessible by sea to western Europe and the US . In 2005, the US
imported more oil from the Gulf of Guinea than it did from Saudi Arabia and Kuwait combined.
Within the next ten years it will import more oil from Africa than from the entire Middle Eas t.
Western oil giants such as ExxonMobil, Chevron, France's Total and Britain's BP and Shell plan to invest tens of
billions of dollars in sub-Saharan Africa (far in excess of "aid" inflows to the region). But though the Gulf of Guinea is
one of the few parts of the world where oil production is poised to increase exponentially in the near future, it is
also one of the most unstable.
as we saw in the 1970s, a sudden jump in oil prices could also cause interest rates to skyrocket,
setting off a dangerous inflationary spiral.
3. Nuclear war.
Friedberg and Schoenfeld, 8
[Aaron, Prof. Politics. And IR @ Princeton’s Woodrow Wilson School and Visiting
Scholar @ Witherspoon Institute, and Gabriel, Senior Editor of Commentary and
Wall Street Journal, “The Dangers of a Diminished America”, 10-28,
http://online.wsj.com/article/SB122455074012352571.html]
With the global financial system in serious trouble, is America's geostrategic dominance likely to
diminish? If so, what would that mean? One immediate implication of the crisis that began on Wall Street and spread across the
world is that the primary instruments of U.S. foreign policy will be crimped . The next president will face an
entirely new and adverse fiscal position. Estimates of this year's federal budget deficit already show that it has jumped $237 billion
from last year, to $407 billion. With families and businesses hurting, there will be calls for various and expensive domestic relief
programs. In the face of this onrushing river of red ink, both Barack Obama and John McCain have been reluctant to lay out what
portions of their programmatic wish list they might defer or delete. Only Joe Biden has suggested a possible reduction -- foreign aid.
This would be one of the few popular cuts, but in budgetary terms it is a mere grain of sand. Still, Sen. Biden's comment hints at where
we may be headed: toward a major reduction in America's world role, and perhaps even a new era of financially-
induced isolationism. Pressures to cut defense spending, and to dodge the cost of waging two wars, already
intense before this crisis, are likely to mount. Despite the success of the surge, the war in Iraq remains deeply unpopular.
Precipitous withdrawal -- attractive to a sizable swath of the electorate before the financial implosion -- might well
become even more popular with annual war bills running in the hundreds of billions. Protectionist sentiments are sure to grow
stronger as jobs disappear in the coming slowdown. Even before our current woes, calls to save jobs by restricting imports had begun
to gather support among many Democrats and some Republicans. In
a prolonged recession, gale-force winds of
protectionism will blow. Then there are the dolorous consequences of a potential collapse of the world's financial
architecture. For decades now, Americans have enjoyed the advantages of being at the center of that system. The worldwide use of the
dollar, and the stability of our economy, among other things, made it easier for us to run huge budget deficits, as we counted on
foreigners to pick up the tab by buying dollar-denominated assets as a safe haven. Will this be possible in the future? Meanwhile,
traditional foreign-policy challenges are multiplying. The threat from al Qaeda and Islamic
terrorist affiliates has not been extinguished. Iran and North Korea are continuing on their
bellicose paths, while Pakistan and Afghanistan are progressing smartly down the road to chaos.
Russia's new militancy and China's seemingly relentless rise also give cause for concern. If
America now tries to pull back from the world stage, it will leave a dangerous power vacuum.
The stabilizing effects of our presence in Asia, our continuing commitment to Europe, and our
position as defender of last resort for Middle East energy sources and supply lines could all be
placed at risk. In such a scenario there are shades of the 1930s, when global trade and finance ground nearly
to a halt, the peaceful democracies failed to cooperate, and aggressive powers led by the remorseless fanatics
who rose up on the crest of economic disaster exploited their divisions. Today we run the risk
that rogue states may choose to become ever more reckless with their nuclear toys, just at our
moment of maximum vulnerability . The aftershocks of the financial crisis will almost certainly
rock our principal strategic competitors even harder than they will rock us . The dramatic free fall of the
Russian stock market has demonstrated the fragility of a state whose economic performance hinges on high oil prices,
now driven down by the global slowdown. China is perhaps even more fragile, its economic growth depending heavily on
foreign investment and access to foreign markets. Both will now be constricted, inflicting economic pain and perhaps even sparking
unrest in a country where political legitimacy rests on progress in the long march to prosperity. None
of this is good news if
the authoritarian leaders of these countries seek to divert attention from internal travails with
external adventures. As for our democratic friends, the present crisis comes when many European nations are struggling to
deal with decades of anemic growth, sclerotic governance and an impending demographic crisis. Despite its past dynamism, Japan
faces similar challenges. India is still in the early stages of its emergence as a world economic and geopolitical power. What does this all
mean? There is no substitute for America on the world stage . The choice we have before us is between the
potentially disastrous effects of disengagement and the stiff price tag of continued American leadership. Are we up for the task? The
American economy has historically demonstrated remarkable resilience. Our market-oriented ideology, entrepreneurial culture, flexible
institutions and favorable demographic profile should serve us well in whatever trials lie ahead. The American people, too, have shown
reserves of resolve when properly led. But experience after the Cold War era -- poorly articulated and executed policies, divisive
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domestic debates and rising anti-Americanism in at least some parts of the world -- appear to have left these reserves diminished. A
recent survey by the Chicago Council on World Affairs found that 36% of respondents agreed that the U.S. should "stay out of world
affairs," the highest number recorded since this question was first asked in 1947. The economic crisis could be the straw
that breaks the camel's back.
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In Nigeria, political corruption, criminal networks, violent Islamist groups, and domestic rebels
threaten to take the world's eighth-largest oil exporter off the market . It is estimated that 70,000 to
300,000 barrels of oil are stolen daily in Nigeria. Even at the low end of this estimate, this would generate more
than $1.5 billion every year -- more than enough capital to buy arms and political influence and
threaten the government's survival. Another 500,000 bpd have been taken off the market by the recent kidnappings and
violence perpetuated by the Movement for the Emancipation of the People of the Niger Delta. [See: "Intelligence Brief: Iran, Nigeria"]
In the midst of this instability, the world's largest and second-largest oil importers are playing an increasingly dangerous game of power
politics. For both Washington and Beijing, the nightmare of rebel groups halting oil extraction in the
delta -- which will dry up revenues on which the northern elites depend, potentially leading to a northern
Muslim general ousting the president -- appears distinctly possible.
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African oil exports to US growing increasingly important as we move away from the
Middle East.
BBC News 3 (How Important is Africa Oil. July 9 http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/business/3054948.stm)
The US imports two thirds of
But his visit has also highlighted the growing importance of oil imports for the United States.
its oil needs. About 15% of that amount comes from West Africa and that figure is projected to rise to 25% in the
next 10 years. The oil sector in Sub-Saharan Africa is one of the fastest growing in the world . Click here
to see a map of Africa's oilfields Production has taken off in the Gulf of Guinea which includes Nigeria, Equatorial Guinea, Cameroon,
By the end of 2003, hundreds of thousands of barrels of crude will be flowing
Gabon, Angola and Congo.
from oil fields in Chad, through rain forests in Cameroon to tankers docked off the Atlantic coast .
Political problems are much more localised in Africa Douglas Mason, EIU An American company has secured a concession in
the neighbouring Central African Republic. In the aftermath of 11 September 2001, America is seen as looking
to reduce its dependence on the Middle East by looking elsewhere for energy supplies. Despite a reputation for
political and economic instability, oil flows from Africa can be reliable, especially as production often takes place off-
shore. "Usually oil production takes place in enclaves, so continues regardless of what goes on
around," said Douglas Mason, Africa specialist at the Economist Intelligence Unit. "Political problems are much more localised in
Africa." US military involvement America may even eventually increase its military presence in the region to secure its oil supplies.
Sao Tome - which has big oil reserves - has invited the US Navy to build a port from which to patrol the Gulf
of Guinea.
role in determining the shape of Africa's energy industry. From 1995 to 2005, national oil companies more than doubled
the number of licenses they hold in Africa, from 95 to 216. China's energy firms are the largest state-owned investors, but India has
also made significant investments and is looking to expand its presence in the region.
African oil imports to the US are matching Middle Eastern imports and other countries.
Joannidis 3 (Marie- French ministry of foreign affairs. Oil: A regional and global issue. http://www.diplomatie.gouv.fr/en/country-
files_156/subsaharan-africa_1962/oil-regional-and-global-issue_2073.html.)
Soaring crude oil prices as a result of sabre-rattling in the Middle East have increased the
importance of Africa’s oil and gas reserves. Those of the Gulf of Guinea, in particular, have triggered sharp competition
among the consumers, led by the United States. The Africans want to take advantage of this to strengthen their regional cooperation
and give a boost to their development projects. The Americans, the world’s biggest consumers of energy, recognised
after
September 11, 2001, the strategic value of the continent’s hydrocarbon reserves, which explains
their renewed interest for African countries. US crude imports from Nigeria and Angola - the two
leading sub-Saharan producers - are already matching those of purchases from Venezuela and Mexico , their
closest oil-exporting neighbours. And the United States imports as much oil from the west coast of Africa as it
does from Saudi Arabia.
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1NC – Terrorism
Anarchy in Africa undermines the global war on terrorism and causes nuclear terror
Dempsey, 6 Thomas Dempsey ‘6 Director of African Studies at Army War College, April 2006 [“Counterterrorism in African Failed States,”
http://www.strategicstudiesinstitute.army.mil/pdffiles/pub649.pdf]
Failed states offer attractive venues for terrorist groups seeking to evade counterterrorism
efforts of the United States and its partners in the Global War on Terror (GWOT). State failure entails, among its other
features, the disintegration and criminalization of public security forces, the collapse of the state administrative structure responsible
for overseeing those forces, and the erosion of infrastructure that supports their effective operation. These circumstances make
identification of terrorist groups operating within failed states very difficult, and action against such groups, once identified,
problematic. Terrorist groups that are the focus of the current GWOT display the characteristics of a network organization with two
very different types of cells: terrorist nodes and terrorist hubs.1 Terrorist nodes are small, closely knit local cells that actually commit
terrorist acts in the areas in which they are active. Terrorist hubs provide ideological guidance, financial support, and access to
resources enabling node attacks. An
examination of three failed states in Sub-Saharan Africa— Liberia, Sierra
Leone, and Somalia—reveals the presence of both types of cells and furnishes a context for assessing
the threat they pose to the national interests of the U nited States and its partners. Al Qaeda
established terrorist hubs in Liberia and Sierra Leone to exploit the illegal diamond trade, laundering money, and
building connections with organized crime and the illegal arms trade. In Somalia, Al Qaeda and Al Ittihad Al
Islami established terrorist hubs that supported terrorist operations throughout East Africa. A new organization led by Aden Hashi ’Ayro
recruited terrorist nodes that executed a series of attacks on Western nongovernment organization (NGO) employees and journalists
within Somalia. Analysis of these groups suggests that while the terrorist nodes in failed states pose little threat to the interests of the
United States or its GWOT partners, terrorist hubs operating in the same states may be highly dangerous. The
hubs observed in
these three failed states were able to operate without attracting the attention or effective
sanction of the United States or its allies . They funneled substantial financial resources, as well
as sophisticated weaponry, to terrorist nodes operating outside the failed states in which the hubs were
located. The threat posed by these hubs to U.S. national interests and to the interests of its partners is significant, and is
made much more immediate by the growing risk that nuclear Weapons of Mass Destruction (WMD) will
fall into terrorist hands. The burgeoning proliferation of nuclear weapons and the poor security of some
existing nuclear stockpiles make it more likely that terrorist groups like Al Qaeda will gain access
to nuclear weapons. The accelerating Iranian covert nuclear weapons program, estimated to produce a nuclear capability
within as little as one year, is especially disturbing in this context.2 A failed state terrorist hub that secures access to
a nuclear weapon could very conceivably place that weapon in the hands of a terrorist node in a
position to threaten vital American national interests.
b) al Qaeda links
Lyman et al. 4. (Princeton N., former U.S. Ambassador to South Africa and Nigeria; Ralph Bunche, Senior Fellow and Dir. of Africa
Policy Studies @ Council for Foreign Relations; J. Stephen Morrison, Dir. of Africa Program @ CSIS, “The Terrorist Threat in Africa”, Foreign
Affairs, January-February, pg. 75, lexis)
Outside of Nigeria, therefore, the terrorist threat in West and Central Africa comes less from religion and politics than from lack of
sovereign control and general debility. The Bush administration acknowledged this link in its 2002 National Security Strategy, which
argued that "poverty,
weak institutions, and corruption can make weak states vulnerable to
terrorist networks and drug cartels within their borders ." Both Central and West Africa are
exceptionally anarchic zones. Interrelated wars have occurred in Liberia, Sierra Leone, Cote
d'Ivoire, and Guinea. Nine African countries were drawn into the war in the Democratic Republic of the Congo, during the late
1990s. This highly unstable situation has given rise to a dangerous chaos in which criminal syndicates partner with rogue leaders
(Charles Taylor in Liberia, Blaise Campaore in Burkina Faso, and Muammar al-Qaddafi in Libya, for example) and al Qaeda. Al Qaeda
has used the region less to foment terrorism than to protect and expand its finances, a challenge for the organization since the U.S.
campaign against it went into high gear after September 11. As documented by Global Witness, The Washington Post, and the UN, al
Qaeda started marketing gems through its East Africa networks and has subsequently taken
advantage of the civil war and chaos in the Democratic Republic of the Congo to extend its activities
into that mineral rich-country. With attention focused on the Middle East, the horrific war in the Congo -- which took nearly 3 million
lives -- went almost unnoticed in U.S. media and political circles. But figuring out how to take advantage of the conflict was clearly on al
Qaeda's agenda.
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d) failed states
VOA 5. (“African Terrorism”, Voice of America, Sept. 8, http://www.voanews.com/english/archive/2005-09/2005-09-08-voa46.cfm?
textmode=0)
Martha Crenshaw, a professor of government at Wesleyan University and an authority on terrorism, says it is not surprising that some
African countries could be used as launching grounds for terror. "These are areas in which the states
are extremely weak, they often don't like to be called 'failed states,' but they're certainly states in which there
are large, 'lawless zones,' as we call them, where the authority of the central government is non-
existent, and therefore where training, recruitment, conspiratorial plotting can all take place.
Furthermore, these are areas in which there has been conflict and fighting."
existence of several failed or weakened states in various parts of the continent with significant Muslim populations,
the rise of conservative Islam in northern Nigeria (the most populous state in Africa and the eighth largest Muslim state in
the world), and the continued growth and spread of Islam through- out much of west, central, and northeastern
Africa—could see Africa emerge in the months and years ahead as a new regional battleground in the war on terrorism. Conservative
and some- times radical Islamic organizations have been able to make enormous headway
among Muslim populations in some African states affected by poverty, economic deprivation, and
political alienation. This has happened outside of Africa, and it can also happen on the continent. It is in the interest of both
Africa and the United States to prevent this, but it can only be stopped through strong collaborative efforts, not through unilateral
action.
--Terror O/W
Terror outweighs aff impacts
Krieger, 2/7 (David, 2/7/11, “Ten Serious Flaws in Nuclear Deterrence Theory,” Nuclear Age Peace Foundation, professor at University of
Minnesota, JPL)
Nuclear deterrence is based upon the threat of retaliation. Since it is not possible to retaliate
against a foe that you cannot locate, the threat of retaliation is not credible under these
circumstances. Further, terrorists are often suicidal (e.g., “suicide bombers”), and are willing to die to inflict
death and suffering on an adversary. For these reasons, nuclear deterrence will be ineffective in preventing
nuclear terrorism. The only way to prevent nuclear terrorism is to prevent the weapons
themselves from falling into the hands of terrorist organizations. This will become increasingly difficult if
nuclear weapons and the nuclear materials to build them proliferate to more and more countries.
***Hotspots Impacts***
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African Democracy
1. Continuing the rise of democracy in Africa is key to regional stability and is the root of
all harms
Diamond 98. (Larry, Snr. research fellow @ Hoover Institute, Hoover Digest, http://www.hooverdigest.org /983/diamond.html)
The common root cause of economic decay, state collapse, ethnic violence, civil war, and
humanitarian disaster in Africa is bad, abusive governance. Because most states lack any
semblance of a rule of law and norms of accountability that bind the conduct of those in
government, their societies have fallen prey to massive corruption , nepotism, and the personal
whims of a tiny ruling elite. In such circumstances, every political clique and ethnic group struggles for
control of a stagnant or diminishing stock of wealth. There are no institutions to facilitate trust,
cooperation, or confidence in the future. Every competing faction tries to grab what it can for
the moment while excluding other groups. THE SOLUTION The only real antidote to this decay is a
constitutional framework that facilitates the limitation, separation, devolution, and sharing of
power so that each group can have a stake in the system while checking the ruling elite and one
another. In essence, this means a democratic political system, to one degree or another. Given Africa’s
authoritarian history, many changes in beliefs and institutions will be necessary for democracy to emerge. A growing segment of
African elites and the public realize that every type of dictatorship on the continent has been a disaster. Thus, there
is
increasing hunger for economic and political freedom and the predictability of a democratic
constitution. As Hoover Institution senior fellow Barry Weingast pointed out in the American Political Science Review, ethnic
groups will not trust and tolerate one another and cooperate for a larger national good unless
there are credible limits on the state. Democracy cannot be stable unless rulers see that it is in
their interest to abide by the rules. What makes it in their interest is the overriding commitment
of all major ethnic groups, parties, and interest organizations to a constitution.
--Environment Module
African democracies check environmental catastrophe
Diamond 97. (Larry, Senior Research Fellow @ Hoover Inst., Prospects for Democratic Development in Africa, p. 11)
Also to be reckoned with is the frightening environmental decay – deforestation, desertification,
pollution - that is associated with growing population density on the land. All this needs to be acknowledged. The
more rapidly population growth and environmental decay proceed, the more they will undermine the ability of fragile African states to
cope with all the challenges they face, not least maintaining political order. Nevertheless (at least in the short to medium term), the
negative political implications of these demographic and ecological changes for democracy should not be overstated. Three points
needed to be recognized. First, thesechallenges put a premium on effective governance. Second,
democracy can cope with these problems more efficiently than authoritarian rule because
democracy generally provides great political accountability and responsiveness and is more
likely to deliver “good” governance in Africa. Only though open and responsible governance are the
perquisites for lowering fertility rates – especially improving the education, status, job prospects, and
income of women and facilitating their access to basic health care and birth control technology – likely to be attained, In fact, one
element of hope in Africa’s “second liberation” is the degree to which women’s groups in civil society are mobilizing and education
women to become actively involved in the political process, which is bound to yield policy outputs conducive to lower fertility.
global comparative statistical evidence shows that populations grow more rapidly under
Moreover,
authoritarian regimes than under democratic ones. Third these demographic and environmental problems are
likely to put increasing pressure on authoritarian states in Africa, meaning that autocratic and psuedodemocratic regimes in counries
like Kenya, Cameroon, and Zimbabwe will face rising prospects of protests and even antiregime violence in the future. This brings us
back to one of the core political trheats to democracy in Africa, the gernal deterioration there.
2. Small Arms outweigh Nuclear Weapons -- certainty of use & systemic impacts make
them a higher priority.
Wood ‘94 (DAVID WOOD; NEWHOUSE NEWS SERVICE -- Plain Dealer – March 20th – lexis)
From Somalia to Sarajevo and in dozens of lesser-known conflicts, a relentless proliferation of
small arms is fueling a global wave of mayhem, and is beyond the ability of authorities to control or even monitor. A
flood of excess Cold War weapons, together with a recent boom in exports from new arms factories around the
world, has combined to lethal effect with a virulent new form of conflict ideally suited to small
arms: ethnic and religious terrorism and violence, spurred by economic and environmental deterioration and
overpopulation. "A fully loaded fighter plane is obviously more deadly than a rifle, but there are a lot
more rifles in the world and they are used with much less discretion ," said Aaron Karp, a political scientist at
Old Dominion University in Virginia and one of a handful of arms analysts who are beginning to study the problem. In the Persian Gulf
war of 1991, 5,000 to 10,000 Iraqis are believed to have been killed, mostly by American bombers, guided missiles and long-range
artillery. By contrast, Karp said, a dozen "minor" conflicts around the world at the same time - in Angola and Cambodia, for instance –
While the world's
each produced more than 10,000 deaths, most of them the result of rifles, hand grenades and mines.
arsenals of missiles, long-range bombers and nuclear weapons bear watching, Karp said, "the greater danger
certainly comes from the weapons used in ethnic conflict ."
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it shall not be long before another continent is on the brink of extinction. Sure as death, Africa's
time has run out, signaling the beginning of the end of the black race and maybe the human race.
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--Democracy Module
African growth is key to democracy
Rugasira, 7 (Andrew, Founder and Chairman Good African Coffee, Uganda, “Africa needs trade not aid: the case for a new paradigm,”
February 1, www.rsa.org.uk/acrobat/rugasira_010207.pdf)
There is need for a new paradigm. One that reflects a fairer and just global trading regime, one where the African political elite is
accountable to their populations and commits to playing its role on development within a pro-poor, pro-democracy and pro-enterprise
framework. Withnot much of an economic interest to protect and with little in the way of
meaningful economic clout, the African private sector has a minimal influence on the political
direction of their nations. The private sector in Africa, as it has been elsewhere, is the engine for
growth and must be empowered. Democracy without the development of a vibrant economic
base is like building a sand castle and hoping to live in it - an exercise in futility .
--Disease Module
Health care in Africa will collapse without economic growth
Schaefer, 3 (Brett, Jay Kingham Fellow in International Regulatory Affairs in the Center for International Trade and Economics at The Heritage Foundation,
“Economic Freedom: The Path to African Prosperity,” Feb 20, http://www.heritage.org/Research/Africa/hl778.cfm)
I believe the central pillar of development is increased economic growth . The focus on growth
should not be interpreted as a dismissal of the importance of investment in education, health, or
other worthy efforts. Investment in those areas, in a manner appropriate to the individual situations, is prudent. But the bottom
line is that without economic growth, governments and the private sector would soon lack the
resources to support those efforts.
--Econ Module
African economic decline causes them to default on their debt
Jackson 85. (Henry F., Prof of Poli Sci @ Hunter College in NY, “The African Crisis: Drought and Debt”, Foreign Affairs, Summer,
http://fullaccess.foreignaffairs.org/19850601faessay8444/henry-f-jackson/the-african-crisis-drought-and-debt.html)
Africa’s current debt problem is inextricably connected to severe setbacks in other economic
sectors. Surely the most painful has occurred in agriculture, the traditional backbone of Africa’s
predominantly rural societies. Among the mineral-rich countries, the decline is mainly attributable to government policies that
neglected agricultural productivity in the vain hope that rising revenues from mineral exports, particularly oil, would assure ample
income for consumer purchases abroad. State control of agriculture in most African nations undermined productivity by fixing farm
wages so low that peasant farmers frequently abandoned the countryside, leaving cultivable land fallow and farm marketing in decline.
The result was a sharp drop in Africa’s share of world trade, even in the commodities in which
the continent had a comparative advantage —coffee, tea, groundnuts, sugar, sisal, cocoa and cotton. After the 1960s,
when most of Africa acquired political independence, agricultural output grew by more than three percent annually in only six
countries (Ivory Coast, Kenya, Cameroon, Malawi, Swaziland and Rwanda), and it had begun to decline in some of these by the early
1980s. To escape the debt burden, several countries have raised the possibility of forming a
debtors’ cartel. Some African countries, such as Algeria and Nigeria, are among the biggest debtors in
the Third World; four other countries (Zambia, Ghana, Malawi and Sudan) were among the 11 largest recipients of International
Monetary Fund (IMF) loans as of March 1985. Deliberate default by a group of debtors would inflict visible
damage on the financial institutions of major Western creditors . On the other hand, the chances for a cartel’s
success are lessened by the official nature of the African debt, which denies these countries the collective influence they would have if
their debts were concentrated among private banks. To formulate a common platform for negotiating loans and repayment of their
foreign debts, the OAU states have scheduled a special summit meeting in Addis Ababa during July 1985.
--Terror Module
African growth solves terrorism and the world economy
BBC News, 5 (July 5, http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/business/4653149.stm)
Helping Africa to help itself is not an act of generosity or altruism, they argue, but a pragmatic strategy which
offers attractive returns. They argue that if Africa prospers, the world will prosper too - in part since
poverty reduction is a powerful fillip to reduce resentment and hence the risk of terrorism. For
foreign investors, the rewards could be even more obvious. "The returns in Africa are among the
highest in the world," observes Mr Rugasira. "We need to say that."
4. Food shortages turn the case – starvation weakens the body, allowing viruses to spread
Lewis 03. (Stephen, UN Special Envoy for HIV/AIDS in Africa, “PanAfrica”, Africa News, May 28, lexis)
When the body has no food to consume, the virus consumes the body . That's the essential meaning of the
New Variant Famine. For millions of Africans already infected by HIV, the onset of full-blown AIDS, and the rapid descent to
death is the inescapable finale of a shortage of food. And the shortage of food, in its turn, opens
up new pathways for the virus to spread .
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--War Module
African famine sparks wars
Carter 99. (Jimmy as in the former Prez, ‘First Step Toward Peace is Eradicating Hunger”, September)
Why has peace been so elusive? A recent report sponsored by Future Harvest and generated by the International Peace
Research Institute in Oslo examines conflicts around the world and finds that—unlike that in Kosovo—most of today’s wars are
fueled by poverty, not by ideology. The devastation occurs primarily in countries whose economies
depend on agriculture but lack the means to make their farmland productive. These are
developing countries such as Sudan, Congo, Colombia, Liberia, Peru, Sierra Leone and Sri Lanka—places
with poor rural areas where malnutrition and hunger are widespread . The report found that poorly
functioning agriculture in these countries heightens poverty, which in turn sparks conflict . This
suggests an obvious but often overlooked path to peace: Raise the standard of living of the millions of rural people who live in poverty
by increasing agricultural productivity. Not only does agriculture put food on the table, but it also provides jobs, both on and off the
farm, that raise incomes. Thriving
agriculture is the engine that fuels broader economic growth and
development, thus paving the way for prosperity and peace. The economies of Europe, the United States,
Canada and Japan were built on strong agriculture. But many developing countries have shifted their priorities away from farming in
favor of urbanization, or they have reduced investments in agriculture because of budget shortages. At the same time, industrialized
countries continue to cut their foreign aid budgets, which fund vital scientific research and extension work to improve farming in
developing countries. Unfortunately, much of the farming technology developed in industrialized nations does not transfer to the
climates and soils of developing nations. It is not a priority for agricultural giants in affluent nations to focus on the poor regions of the
world or to share basic research advances with scientists from poor nations. This neglect should end. Leaders of developing nations
must make food security a priority. In the name of peace, it is critical that both developed and developing countries support
agricultural research and improved farming practices, particularly in nations often hit with drought and famine. For example, the report
finds that India,
one of the world’s largest and poorest nations, has managed to escape widespread
violence in large measure because the Indian government made food security a priority. Beginning
in the 1960s, farmers in India were given the means to increase their agricultural output with technology packages that included
improved seeds, fertilizers, irrigation and training. Today India no longer experiences famines as it did in the first half of this century.
India’s food security contributes to its relative political stability. While food is taken for granted in industrialized countries, many parts
of the world—sub-Saharan Africa and large parts of Asia, for example—suffer serious food shortages. Today ,
per capita food
production in sub-Saharan Africa is less than it was at the end of the 1950s. The report
concludes that new wars will erupt if the underlying conditions that cause them are not
improved. The message is clear: There can be no peace until people have enough to eat. Hungry
people are not peaceful people. The Future Harvest report is a reminder that investments in agricultural research today can cultivate
peace tomorrow.
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--Econ Module
1. African hunger skyrocketing, contributing to worldwide starvation
People’s Daily Online 7. (“854 million starving people over the world”, http://english.people.com.cn/6210545.html)
The World Food Programme (WFP), The Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations (FAO), and the International Fund for
Agriculture Development (IFAD), announced on July 4th at a joint press conference, that there
are currently 854 million
hungry people in the world. The situation is most serious in Africa: in the past 15 years, the
number of people who are malnourished has increased by 45 million . In a report from the UN website,
David Harcharik, the deputy general director of FAO, says that the global fight against hunger is not hopeful . Harcharik
said that regardless of population or absolute figures; the world has not yet met the needs
required to achieve the goal of cutting the population of starving people in half by 2015. Although
some countries have made progress; overall global hunger still continues to rise rather than fall.
reaching tipping point with the Government of Sudan. Sheikh Ali, a senior member of one political party in the East, the Beja
Congress, referring to the lessons of Darfur last week said “the Government only listens to people who carry guns.” I heard exactly
the same comments from Darfur rebel commanders when I was in Chad and Darfur 16 months ago, referring to the lessons from the
South of Sudan. Then, prospect for peace in the South looked hopeful, but the recent death of John Garang, the Southern leader, is
another wound to the peace efforts in Sudan. The
scene is being set for millions more to face death,
destruction and unimaginable suffering.
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--Disease Module
Genocide turns the case – causes refugee flows which spread diseases
Mageria 1 (David-Reuters author, writes lots of articles about Africa such as Poor Africans hit hard by rising world oil prices. AIDS Orphans
Confront 'Silent Genocide' in Rwanda. November 29. http://www.aegis.com/news/re/2001/RE011147.html)
Scores of young Rwandan boys and girls crowd into a dimly lit classroom and painstakingly put the finishing touches to paintings
daubed on worn-out pieces of brown paper. Many are AIDS orphans, learning the skills to cope with the legacy of an epidemic made
harsher by the devastating impact of the country's 1994 genocide. "The
AIDS problem is big in Rwanda, call it a
silent genocide," said Robert Limlim, the United Nations Children's Fund's HIV/AIDS programme officer in Kigali. For thousands of
children forced to survive in the streets after AIDS or the killings claimed their parents, centres operated by churches or civic groups
and supported by aid agencies such as UNICEF teach carpentry and painting and offer education on the AIDS pandemic. "HIV is a big
problem by now, because among our beneficiaries, we have around 20% who are orphans due to the HIV problem," said Epimaque
Kanamugire, the coordinator of the Tabakunde Centre in Kigali, which cares for 169 children. The centres offer the only hope for a
better life in a country where the epidemic ravaging Africa has an even more sinister twist, with the
effects of the genocide speeding the spread of infection . Roughly one in nine Rwandans have HIV/AIDS, or about
11% of the population of 8 million. The prevalence was put at 1.6% in 1987. During 100 days of killing, millions of
people were displaced as they crossed the tiny country's green hillsides to escape bands of murderous militiamen. Children
lost parents and health services were shattered, making access to information on AIDS difficult. " With the war and genocide
people were forced to live in refugee camps. There was a lot of uncontrolled sex and that
increases the chances of infection," David Awasum, the resident representative for the Johns Hopkins University centre
for communication programmes in Kigali, told Reuters. Hutu extremists who massacred up to 800,000 ethnic Tutsis and Hutu
moderates used mass rape as a weapon. Young girls looking for protection sometimes paid with
sexual favours. "Most of those who were raped have now been found to be HIV-positive and
many people are dying every day," Limlim said.
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Landmines jack food production and the local economy – Angola proves
Ukabiala 99. (Jullyette, “Impetus towards a mine-free world,”
http://www.un.org/ecosocdev/geninfo/afrec/vol12no4/mines.htm)
In conflicts, APMs are mostly deployed by being buried in the ground, and are detonated when stepped upon or moved in any way.
They are designed to kill or disable their victims permanently, often by shattering one or both limbs beyond repair. The
International Committee of the Red Cross states that there are some 250,000 land mine
amputees in the world, comprising mostly civilians, including children. The most severe impact
in Africa has been on Angola, which has about 23,000 amputees (one out of every 470 people)
and Mozambique, where land mines have claimed over 10,000 lives. Casualties are still mounting, mainly
because many mined areas are unmarked and the mines remain active for many decades. The economic impact is such
that food production in affected Angolan cities has been reduced by more than 25 per cent, yet
Angola has had to keep a relatively low profile regarding the Convention , says Mr. Arcanjo Maria Do
Nascimento, an Angolan diplomat at the United Nations. "Mozambique has peace and can concentrate on the issue more actively.
Right now, we have war going on," he notes. Mr. Do Nascimento points out that Angola
has done a lot of mine clearing,
working with UN teams and concerned non-governmental organizations (NGOs). "Following
renewed fighting, however, the process is now hampered, " he told Africa Recovery. He said his country would
be sending a "high-powered" delegation to the Maputo meeting, to explore how participants could increase support for land mine
victims, in such areas as rehabilitation, medical supplies and special education.
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2. It goes nuclear
Weiner 90. (Jonathan, Prof at Princeton U, The Next 100 Years. p.270)
If we do not destroy ourselves with the A-bomb and the H-bomb, then we may destroy ourselves with the C-bomb, the Change Bomb.
And in a world as interlinked as ours, one explosion may lead to the other . Already in the Middle East, tram
North Africa to the Persian Gulf and from the Nile to the Euphrates, tensions
over dwindling water supplies and rising
populations are reaching what many experts describe as a flashpoint A climate shift in that single battle-scarred nexus
might trigger international tensions that will unleash some at the 60.000 nuclear warheads the world has
stockpiled since Trinity.
3. Prefer our impact – water wars are the most probable threat in Africa
Smith 99. (Russell, Africa’s Potential Water Wars, November 15, http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/africa/454926.stm)
The main conflicts in Africa during the next 25 years could be over that most precious of commodities - water, as countries fight for
access to scarce resources .
Potential 'water wars' are likely in areas where rivers and lakes are shared
by more than one country, according to a UN Development Programme (UNDP) report. The possible flashpoints
are the Nile, Niger, Volta and Zambezi basins. The influential head of environmental research
institute Worldwatch, Lester Brown, believes that water scarcity is now " the single biggest threat to
global food security".
4. We control the vital internal link to your impacts -- water scarcity causes conflict,
pollution, poverty, food shortages and deforestation
NYT 6. (“Need for Water Could Double in 50 Years, UN Study Finds”, New York Times, August 22)
More than two billion people already live in regions facing a scarcity of water, and unless the world
changes its ways over the next 50 years, the amount of water needed for a rapidly growing population will
double, scientists warned in a study released yesterday. At the worst, a deepening water crisis would fuel violent conflicts,
dry up rivers and increase groundwater pollution, their report says. It would also force the rural poor to clear ever more grasslands and
forests to grow food and leave many more people hungry.
DRC – Proliferates
The DRC is a potential source of fissile material for would be proliferators
Crail and Bergenas, 7 Peter Crail and Johan Bergenas, Nonproliferation Studies workers, April 3, 2007 (The Center for
Nonproliferation Studies (CNS) strives to combat the spread of weapons of mass destruction (WMD) by training the next generation of
nonproliferation specialists and disseminating timely information and analysis http://cns.miis.edu/pubs/other/ wmdi070403a.htm)
On March 6, 2007, Kinshasa authorities arrested two senior nuclear officials of the Democratic Republic
of Congo (DRC) for their joint involvement in illicit uranium exports . [1] According to press accounts, the
accusations levied against Fortunat Lumu, the Commissioner General for Atomic Energy, and Bere Bemba Paulin, the Head of
the Center for Nuclear Studies, involve each official in two different episodes: the disappearance of
unspecified quantities of low-enriched uranium fuel from the Regional Center for Nuclear Studies in Kinshasa;
and an illegal operation to export uranium ore from the country’s uranium mines. [2] While the two suspects were
released four days after their arrests, they remain under investigation by DRC authorities, and the International Atomic Energy Agency
(IAEA) has also expressed interest in examining the situation. [3] The
allegations of uranium smuggling are only the latest
reminder of long-standing international concerns regarding the poor physical protection and
accounting measures in the DRC’s nuclear sector. While these episodes may ultimately prove to be false alarms,
the continued vulnerability of nuclear material in the DRC poses a significant risk of exploitation
by states seeking a clandestine source of uranium for weapons or by terrorists seeking material
for a radiological dispersal device (“dirty bomb”). Alleged Missing Uranium Fuel from the Kinshasa Research Reactor
Initial, unconfirmed, reports from the DRC newspaper Le Phare indicated that the arrests were in response to the
disappearance in recent years of “more than 100 bars of uranium” and an additional unknown quantity of uranium
contained in 25 helmet-shaped casings from the Regional Center for Nuclear Studies in Kinshasa (CREN/K).
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Nigeria Impact
Nigerian dissolution would be devastating – it would trigger massive oil shocks and the U.S.
would intervene in an attempt to protect oil supplies
Gardner, 6 Dan Gardner, “Western world ignoring demise of Nigeria”, The Ottawa Citizen, 3/23/06, lexis
Imagine a country that is one of the world's largest exporters of oil. Imagine a country in which ethnic and
sectarian violence has killed thousands and driven millions from their homes, a country so fragile that a recent report commissioned by
the CIA concluded there is a good chance it will collapse. Imagine a country that Osama bin Laden has declared to be "ripe for
This country is not in the Middle East. It's also not on the minds of western media or politicians, despite the
liberation."
almost unimaginable havoc that would be unleashed if the feared collapse comes. It is Nigeria. A British invention, Nigeria is a
country made up of some 250 ethnic groups and countless tribal subdivisions sharing only a weak national identity. It is also
a country of intense and growing religious passions whose 132 million people are divided almost equally between Christians and
Muslims. Violent earthquakes can erupt along any of these fault lines. In February, Muslims in the north murdered 50 Christians.
Christians in the south retaliated by murdering Muslims. Thousands fled in terror. These latest clashes started with protests against the
Danish cartoons, but most have less exotic origins. People fight for land or God. They fight to control local governments. They fight to
avenge insults. In the Niger Delta, they fight for control of oil. Dozens die in one clash. Hundreds in another. It's low-grade warfare but
the toll steadily climbs. By one estimate, 20,000 Nigerians have been killed in fighting since 1999, when democracy was restored after
16 years of military rule. And for every corpse, more than a hundred people have been driven from their homes. "The magnitude,
scope, character and dimension of internally displaced persons in Nigeria is frightening," declared a report released last week by
Nigeria's National Commission for Refugees. Since 1999, the commission says, three million people have fled. Their plight represents
one of the gravest humanitarian crises in the world. It is also one of the most unrecognized. The bloody clashes in Nigeria almost never
rate a mention in the western media and western politicians pay even less attention to the country than they do to other African hot
spots. As a result, very few people in Canada realize how dangerous the situation has become. "While currently Nigeria's leaders are
locked in a bad marriage that all dislike but dare not leave," states a 2005 report commissioned by the CIA, an event such as a
coup
attempt could spark open warfare and "outright collapse. " AN OIL SHOCK The consequences would
be immense. "If Nigeria were to become a failed state ," the report concluded, "it could drag down a
large part of the West African region." Millions would flee. There's also the matter of oil. Even now, world oil
prices jump every time a bullet is fired in the Niger Delta . If Nigeria were to collapse, there could be an oil shock
the like of which we haven't seen since the Iranian Revolution. And since the long-term energy strategy
of the United States assumes rising African oil production, chaos in the Niger Delta would
almost certainly bring in the Marines.
--Spills Over
Nigerian democratization leads to continent-wide stability
Booker, 3 Salih Booker, executive director at Africa Action and William Minter, senior research fellow at Africa Action, Winter 2003, The
U.S. and Nigeria: thinking beyond oil, accessed via ciaonet.org
Nigeria, Africa’s most populous nation, is also the most important state in U.S.- Africa relations today . Nigeria
is America’s major trading partner in Africa. It plays the largest role of any country in peacekeeping efforts on the
continent. Nigeria’s attempt to build democracy from the ashes of authoritarian rule will arguably have even
more consequential effects for the continent than South Africa’s victory over apartheid in 1994.
Although it is oil that attracts Washington’s attention the most, the ramifications of Nigeria’s success or failure will extend far beyond
the energy sector. In past centuries, Nigeria’s territory was home to a series of powerful and technically advanced societies, renowned
for their artistic, commercial and political achievements. It was also a pioneer in the movement for African independence. But since
independence its growth has been stunted by internal conflict and military misrule. Yet today, Nigeria is again one of Africa’s most
influential countries. Its
unique human resources and vast oil reserves create the capacity for
enormous prosperity and regional leadership. In 2002, Nigeria was the fifth-largest supplier of oil to the U.S., ranking
behind only Canada, Saudi Arabia, Mexico and Venezuela. Along with Royal Dutch Shell, a British-Dutch firm, U.S. oil supermajors
ChevronTexaco and Exxon Mobil Corp. dominate oil production in the oil-rich Niger Delta. Since emerging from military dictatorship in
1999, its nascent democratic institutions have survived huge challenges but have performed disappointingly in the eyes of tens of
millions of Nigerians. Their capacity to deliver the peace and prosperity Nigerians want is still unproved. The
fate of Nigeria
has profound implications for the entire continent : both the potential and the obstacles are on the
giant scale of the country itself.
Nigerian ability to solve social problems sets a model for the rest of Africa
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Booker, 3 Salih Booker, executive director at Africa Action and William Minter, senior research fellow at Africa Action, 2003, The U.S. and
Nigeria: thinking beyond oil, accessed via ciaonet.org
Nigeria, whose almost 130 million people make up nearly one sixth of Africa’s population, reflects virtually all the major
problems confronting the continent. Its success or failure will resonate far beyond its immediate
neighbors in West Africa. The HIV/AIDS pandemic, the crippling debt burden, protection of the
environment against corporate greed, the need to break out of dependence on raw-material
exports, the establishment of peaceful Muslim- Christian and ethnoregional relations and
balancing national and local government accountability are all cases in point.
Nigerian stability is key for African democracy—it’s a stronger model than South Africa
Unegbu, 3 Carl Unegbu, Nigerian-born American lawyer and journalist, Spring 2003, World Policy Journal
But unlike its sub-Saharan neighbors, Nigeria is not your typical African country. Before the advent in 1994 of majority rule in South
Africa under Nelson Mandela, Nigeria was unrivaled as the dominant regional power, with respectable credentials in its decolonization
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efforts in the 1970s, and then in peacekeeping operations in Sierra Leone and Liberia in the 1990s. Today, even
with South
Africa as a partner in continental affairs, Nigeria provides the more credible litmus of democracy's
future in sub-Saharan Africa. Not only does Nigeria have a longer history of acceptable
involvement in African affairs, but its economic and social conditions are more representative of
the deplorable situation in other African countries than those in South Africa. Indigenous black Africans have
dominated Nigeria's social, political, and economic affairs since independence. By contrast, despite the recent political dominance of
black South Africans, their country's social and economic sectors continue to be dominated by whites. Thus by strengthening
its own fledgling democracy, Nigeria can take the first step to fortifying the same impulse
elsewhere. Yet success in Nigeria this fourth time around hinges critically on how well the country and its political class address the
familiar demons that have wrecked democracy three times previously. It was the failure of past civilian administrations to organize
credible elections that provided the proximate trigger for the abolition of democracy by the Nigerian military in 1966 and 1983.
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Somalia Impact
Results of the conflict in Mogadishu will engulf the Horn of Africa
Ward, 7 Olivia Ward, Toronto Star, April 29,2007
Starved and terrified civilians fleeing their homes. The stench of death hovering over the steaming streets.
Tanks and missiles blasting through the night. Cholera victims dying in the dust . A plague of war
has descended on the Somali capital, Mogadishu, claiming more than a thousand lives and displacing
an estimates 300,000 people, as the country's transitional government, backed by Ethiopian
troops, continues to battle for power with supporters of an ousted Islamist regime . It's one of
those complex regional wars that attract little international attention - but this conflict is closely watched in
Toronto and other centres of the Somali diaspora. What much of the world doesn't realize is that this little war
threatens a humanitarian catastrophe that could have spillover effects in the region, and the
West, for years to come. "It's a genocide in the making," says Mohamad Elmi, an Ottawa-based
partner in Mogadishu's independent HornAfrik broadcasting network. "People are fleeing in
every direction, but they're being wounded and killed and there's nobody to help them. Now, all the political agendas
are merging, and everything we've feared is happening. If it continues this way the whole Horn
of Africa will be in flames."
caught in Mogadishu's deadly crossfire see the new conflict as a flashback to 16 years of warlord
rule, which ended when the Islamic Courts - formed from the large Hawiye clan and backed by powerful business leaders - restored
order in the capital. The TFG had been unable to get a grip on the fragmented country but kept a foothold in Baidoa outside
Mogadishu. When the Islamists took the capital, many people rejoiced, although warily. "What most Somalis want is peace and
security," says Khadija Ali, a former TFG minister and now a graduate student at George Mason University in Virginia. "But they will
The Islamists were at first welcomed for
never have it unless the parties are willing to solve their problems peacefully."
their crackdown on violence and criminality in Mogadishu, but their strict application of sharia
law, media censorship and clan nepotism soon caused resentment. They also outraged Ethiopia by
threatening to seize the Ogaden region . The Islamic Courts' ouster has brought only more
bloodshed to Somalia, in spite of declarations of victory by Somali Prime Minister Ali Mohamed Gedi. Corpses are
rotting the streets of Mogadishu and hospitals have all but collapsed. As the city is reduced to
rubble, the impoverished towns to which residents have fled are unable to cope with their
needs. Humanitarian agencies have been largely unable to help war victims, and the UN has
warned of a disaster if fighting continues. "Ethiopia is caught in an unwinnable war, and there's no end in sight unless
it and the transitional government have a paradigm shift in the way they deal with each other," says David Mozersky, Horn of Africa
project director for the International Crisis Group. "But now the fighting has gone so far that neither side wants to make an effort at
conciliation." Clan and land issues have fuelled an already volatile mix of hostilities, says Andrew
McGregor, director of Toronto-based Aberfoyle International Security Analysis. "The troops in the TFG are from the large Darod clan.
And as far as the Hawiye are concerned, they're simply an occupying army," he says. The clans have fought bitterly in the past, and now
the Hawiye "see their old enemies back in the streets." Complicating things further, Ethiopia's dedicated foe,
Eritrea, has reportedly offered training and support for Ogaden rebels and has harboured Somali
fighters opposed to the TFG. Ethiopia has accused it of sponsoring terrorism, making the
prospects for peace between the two neighbouring, and still warring, countries more remote .
Eritrea labels the charges a politically motivated smear. As the Somalia conflict rages on, says Axworthy, "this is the
seedbed of an entire breakdown in the region. What's happening here will push back into
Eritrea, Sudan, Djibouti and the whole region." But it is the Somalis who are suffering most, after losing up to 1
million people in more than a decade of fighting. As they pray for an end to the killing, the few overtures for peace between the
warring sides have failed. Says HornAfrik's Elmi: "Somalis just want to get on with their lives. They say: 'Show us the buck, not the
bullet.' If as much effort was put into peace as war, Somalia would be paradise instead of hell on Earth
Ongoing Eritrea-Ethiopia conflict will spill over to Somalia, causing a wide regional
conflict.
The Hague 6 (November 29, Eritrea and Ethiopia Given One Year to End Border Stalemate, Agence France-Presse,
http://www.reliefweb.int/rw/RWB.NSF/db900SID/STED-6VZLY3?OpenDocument)
Eritrea and Ethiopia both last week rejected plans by the panel, the Eritrea Ethiopia Boundary Commission, to demarcate their
contentious frontier on paper. The stalemate has left the status of the 1,000-kilometer (620-mile) border
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unclear six years after a peace deal and raised tensions, heightened by UN reports that both
nations are militarily active in Somalia. Continued… The commission's warning comes amid growing tension
between the two countries that many fear could lead to a renewal of their war and spill over into
Somalia, threatening a wider regional conflict.
Regional conflict will arise from the Somalia proxy war fought by Ethiopia and Eritrea.
Baldauf 6 (Scott, December 12, staff writer of the Christan Science Monitor, Global Jihad’s New Front in Africa, The Christian Science
Monitor, http://www.csmonitor.com/2006/1212/p01s02-woaf.html)
As a country with no central government for more than 15 years, Somalia has become a dangerous playground for other people's wars.
Eritrea and Ethiopia, use Somalia as a proxy war to fight each other,
Neighboring countries, such as
placing their own troops in Somalia supporting opposing sides of the internal civil war. Ethiopian
separatist groups such as the Ogaden National Liberation Front and the Oromo Liberation Front
use Somalia as a base to fight for independence from Ethiopia. Most worrisome to the Western
world, however, is that the lack of central control has allowed extremist groups to bring their
pro-Al Qaeda agenda into Africa. But the increasingly open movements of Ethiopian troops in Somalia are fast becoming
an emotional unifying force for the Islamists, who are calling on Somalis to defend their national sovereignty. Continued… But more
troublesome is that foreign troops will play into the hands of the Islamists. In any case, many Ethiopian officials
and experts
say that they have no choice but to fight. The looming war in Somalia is part of the unfinished
business of Ethiopia's two-year border war with Eritrea , which ended in exhaustion rather than a negotiated
peace treaty. Ethiopian officials allege that the rise of Somalia's Islamists was made possible by Eritrean logistical support, and a UN
Monitoring Group report has charged that Eritrea, Egypt, Djibouti, Iran, Saudi Arabia, Yemen, Libya, and Sudan have all contributed
funds, arms, and technical support to help Somalia's Islamists take control. Continued… Abdikarim Farah, ambassador of the Somali
transitional government, welcomed last week's UN resolution to arm his government and provide peacekeepers. " Whether this is
a proxy war or not, it will happen, and if the Islamists succeed, it is going to be a regional
conflict," he says.
Regional conflict spillover will be the effect of the looming Ethiopian-Eritrean war.
Terfa 7 (Solomon, June 24, Associate Professor of Political Science and International Relations at Mississipi State University, Only a
Legitimate Government Should Commit Ethiopians to War, Ethiomedia, http://www.ethiomedia.com/atop/zenawi_and_badme.html)
In the meantime, the United
Nations Mission in Ethiopia and Eritrea began to warn the Universal organization about
a war that was in the making inside the borders of both countries beginning the year 2004. The Head of
the Mission Joseph Legwaila said: “The stalemate could lead to the conflagration of another war
between Ethiopia and Eritrea, and could obviously spill over to other parts of the region. Lately,
troops and instruments of war that include tanks and missiles are being deployed. The Eritrean
government has not only imposed a helicopter ban but also restricted the movement of the 2,800 peacekeeping troops that are
stationed to patrol the Temporary Security Zone (TZS)”.
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South Africa is a threat to re- proliferate – has the scientists and uranium reserves
Malone, 7 Paul Malone, Canberra Times, May 2, 2007, staff writer
South Africa, which abandoned its nuclear weapons program, was listed as a country of concern because of its
uranium reserves and the ability of its former regime to get round safeguards. South Africa also
had scientists who had previously been involved in its nuclear weapons programs and now had
the potential to pose a risk of nuclear proliferation.