TO : ELIZABETH HENG FOR CONGRESS

201 N Union Street, Suite 410

Alexandria, Virginia 22314
(703) 684-6688
THE TARRANCE
GROUP
www.tarrance.com

FROM: BRIAN NIENABER

ED GOEAS

R E: KEY FINDINGS FROM A SURVEY OF LIKELY VOTERS IN CA CD 16

______________________________________________________________________________

Methodology
The Tarrance Group is pleased to present the following findings from this survey among N=405
registered likely voters in California CD 16. Responses to the survey were gathered August 14-16, 2018.
The margin of error for this survey for the statewide sample is + 4.9% at the 95% confidence level.

Overview of Key Findings

 Heng trails on the initial ballot and the generic ballot indicates this will be a challenging
district for a Republican to win.

 However, Heng is outperforming her name identification and the issue matrix offers great
opportunities to make gains with persuadable voters.

 In addition, the message testing finds that there are effective and impactful messages that can
be used to define Heng in favorable terms and that can define Costa as not fit for Congress.

 In this final stretch of the campaign, if Heng can grow her favorable image and close the gap
in this race, there is a real opportunity to win here.

Political Environment

 Voters are engaged about the 2018 elections. Fully sixty-four percent (64%) of them indicate
that they are extremely likely to vote in November, which is a four-point increase since the
June survey. Heng voters (66% extremely likely) and Costa voters (65% extremely likely)
are at near parity in terms of enthusiasm.

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 Democrats have a 15-point advantage (38%-53%) over Republicans on the generic ballot.
However, fully 93% of Republicans select the GOP on the generic ballot while just 86% of
Democrats select Democrat on the generic ballot.

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 A summary of voter responses on the most important issue question is below. As seen below,
this issue matrix remains quite diverse with every issue offered being selected by at least
three percent of the electorate.

Most important Change since

Issue (Aug) June survey
Immigration 29% -2%
Health care 21% +8%
Water issues 15% +2%
Education 9% -3%
Jobs 8% -1%
Crime 6% +2%
Homelessness 3% -3%

 There is a stark contrast between Heng voters and Costa voters on their issues of concern.
For Heng voters, immigration (37%) and water issues (25%) are the top tier concerns while
for Costa voters, health care (29%) and immigration (25%) are the top tier concerns.

Name Identifications

 Four names were tested in the name identification series. Voter responses are summarized in
the chart below.

No Never
Name Fav Unfav Opinion heard of
Jim Costa 49% 35% 6% 10%
Elizabeth Heng 16% 7% 10% 67%
Donald Trump 37% 54% 8% 0%
Nancy Pelosi 40% 45% 4% 40%

 As seen above, President Trump will not be asset for the Heng campaign beyond base
mobilization. He has a majority unfavorable rating with all voters as well as Democrats
(83% unfavorable) and decline to state voters (52% unfavorable).

 However, Nancy Pelosi will not be an asset for the Costa campaign. She has a majority
unfavorable rating with Republicans (88%) and more than one-third (36%) of decline to state
voters have an unfavorable view of her.

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U.S. Congressional Ballot

 On the initial ballot, Costa has an 18-point lead (55%-37%) with just 7% of voters
undecided. Among those voters who have made a definite decision, Costa has a 13-point lead
(34%-21%).

 Heng has her strongest levels of support among Madera County voters, Republicans,
conservatives, and those who name water issues as their top concern.

 Costa is strongest with his base voters – Democrats, liberals, and those whose top issue is
healthcare. As one would expect, younger voters, decline to state voters, and moderates tend
to be more undecided.

Informed ballot

 Following substantial message testing, the informed ballot finds Heng with a 10-point lead
(52%-42%) over Costa with just 6% of voters undecided. Definite support on this informed
ballot has Heng with a 3-point advantage (31%-28%).

 Overall:
 16% of voters switch to Heng;
 36% remain with Heng;
 6% of voters switch to undecided or remain undecided
 40% of voters remain with Costa; and
 2% of voters switch to Costa.

 This notable growth in support for Heng is driven by strong movement among younger
voters and moderates.

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