1.

i. The statement does not indicate the location of the deaths, or the
population—we do not know the number of people that were exposed
to the risk of dying.
ii. The population on the last day of 2017 is not an informative statistic
about the exposure to risk of dying during the period of a whole year.
iii. It tells us the number of people that are exposed to the risk of dying but
it doesn’t tell us when the deaths occur during that period.

2. If we think about the way to calculate crude birth rate or crude death rate, we might
know the number of people who immigrated into the country but there is no person-
year information that we can use in the case of immigration. Commented [m1]: More specifically, the population exposed to
the risk of immigration (e.g. to the U.S.) will be that of countries
other than the U.S.
3. The most commonly used measure (period) measure of fertility is the total fertility
rate (TFR). It is derived from the age specific fertility rate (ASFR) and is cumulative.
It is only a hypothetical measure of completed fertility: it is the number of children
who would be born per woman if she were to pass through the childbearing years with
children. The level commonly used to indicate that a population is replacing itself is
approximately 2.1 children born per woman, but the replacement rate can be as high
as 3.4 in some developing countries because of higher mortality rates. Commented [m2]: I also asked what is the threshold commonly
used for ultra-low or lowest-low fertility.
ln(2)
4. 0.015
= 46.2 𝑦𝑒𝑎𝑟𝑠

5. Level of CDR in France, England/Wales when mortality transition occurred:

30~ per 1000 to 10-12 per thousand.
Period life expectancy at birth in the mid-19th century was around 40 years for males
and 42 years for females. These figures increased to around 45 and 50 years
respectively by 1901. Life expectancy then rose dramatically until the mid1950s.

During the 1860s when the famine occurred due to consecutive harvest failures in
Finland, there was elevated mortality in both 1866 and 1867, but a dramatic increase
occurred in 1868, with a CDR of approximately 78 and in some regions over 115,
resulting in over 100,000 deaths.

6. The IMR in the U.S. was 2017 was 5.80 deaths per 1000 live births. Compared to
other developed countries, it is relatively high. In the U.K, it was 4.30 deaths per 1000
live births; In Singapore, it was 2.40 deaths per 1000 live births; in Finland and
Norway, it was 2.50 deaths per 1000 live births.

7. PWR = ODR * PR/ER

ER is the employment ratio-people employed/working age

PR is the ratio of people receiving pensions
ODR is the old age dependency ratio – the ratio of people above 65 to those from 15-
64 (the working age)

As life expectancy increases and fertility continues to decline, the number of people
receiving pensions will increase as well the old-age dependency ratio. This will
increase the pensioner-worker ratio. The pace of aging is positively correlated with to
 the pension burden.

There are a few ways to address the pension fund crisis: There can be attempts to
increase fertility (though this is a slow, long-term process as it would take nearly two
decades for children to become work-eligible). There can be policies which encourage
migration to happen as this would lower the average age of the population to lower
the old-age dependency ratio. Many countries have also increased the retirement age,
whilst reducing the level of benefits; though this is an unpopular measure.

8. Migration from Malaysia to Singapore:

Most are highly skilled, upper-class professionals who have economic self-interest in
mind. A lot of Malaysians consistently pursue higher education in Singapore
institutions (which are ranked very highly); this also increases labor migration. A lot
of Malaysians are also dissatisfied with the social and political climate. The
developed infrastructure, lower crime rates are also pull factors.

Migration from Singapore to Malaysia:

The cost of living in Malaysia is much lower than in Singapore (though Malaysia
does havae smaller purchasing power). Qualitatively, life is comparatively slower-
paced in Malaysia than Singapore. Although Malaysia has a history of mistreating
migrants (refugees and migrant workers), those under Malaysia My Second Home
(MM2H) scheme are considered expats and are consequently treated as elite because
of their status as a high-earning group. It allows them tax exemptions and largely
unrestricted travel into and out of Malaysia. Singapore is very densely populated – the
cost of owning a property and raising a family would be cheaper in Malaysia.

9. Macedonia, Southern Portugal, PolandBelarus

 10. Essay question 1

Fertility transition is the phenomenon of decreasing fertility, primarily in Europe in the

19th and early 20th century. There have been many efforts in identifying the causes of fertility

decline based on the European countries. The Classical transition theory is a socio-economic

approach which emphasizes urbanization, growth in individualism and secularism, and

changes in the economy, proposed by Thompson (1929), Davis (1945) and Notestein (1945,

1953). From a more anthropological perspective, Caldwell (1976, 1982) posited that

intergenerational wealth flow by stressing the westernization and mass education have

popularized the idea of children-centered families and the predominance of the nuclear

family. This notion shifted the direction and size of intergenerational wealth flows.

Lesthaeghe (1983) suggested more cultural and ideational approach; he focused on the rise of

values such as secularism, individualism, and self-fulfilment as the fertility decline proceeded

in parallel with cultural-ideational changes in Europe.

From Becker’s microeconomics perspective, there was an attempt to rationalize fertility

decline by focusing on the changing cost and demand for children, without considering

shifting cultural contexts. He claimed that because individuals were self-interested, demand

for children would decreased because of their increased cost. Couples could optimize by

investing in one child as opposed to many children. In the nineteenth and early twentieth

century Europe, there were also other factors that contributed the fertility declines of pioneer

countries such as improvement in birth control methodology and increase in migration.

[ML: There should be some discussion on decline in infant and child mortality so that

parents felt safe enough to have fewer children.]

The first country to experience fertility decline is France in the 1780s. It gradually spread

throughout other European countries around 70 years later. While Asian countries began their

fertility transition during the middle of the 20th century.

 While it is quite true that socio-economic factors played the significant role in fertility

decline, there are no two countries which have followed identical paths to transition as there

are too many possible combinations of socio-economic, economic, cultural, ideational, and

other probable causalities