ABDURRAHMAN DZIKRI

NIM. 16612056
B-Sore Teknik Industri
Tugas PPIC - Forecasting
Lakukan peramalan untuk data berikut dengan cara Naïve, Simple Average

Soal : Aktual
450
Bulan 440
1 460 Data Aktual
2 510 600
3 520
500
4 495
5 475 400
6 560
Quantity

300 Col umn

7 510
8 520 200
9 540
10 550 100

11 0
12 0 2 4 6 8 10 12 14
13 Bulan

Jawab :
Aktual
1. Naï 450
Bulan 440 Forecast Error
1 460 Naive Forecasting
2 510 450 -10 Col umn C Col umn D
3 520 440 20 600
4 495 460 50
500
5 475 510 10
6 560 520 -25 400
Quantity

7 510 495 -20 300

8 520 475 85 200
9 540 560 -50
100
10 550 510 10
11 520 20 0
0 2 4 6 8 1
12 540 10
Bulan
13 550

Aktual
2. Sim 450
Bulan 440 Forecast Error
1 460 Simple Average Forecasting
2 510 450 -10 600
3 520 445 15
500
4 495 450 60
5 475 465 55 400
6 560 476 19

Quantity
300
7 510 479 -4
8 520 479 81 200

9 540 489 21 100

10 550 491 29
11 494 46 0
0 2 4 6 8 10 12
12 498 52
Bulan
13 503

Aktual
3. Mov 450
Bulan 440 Forecast Error
1 460 Moving Average Forecasting
2 510 600
3 520
500
4 495 450 60
5 475 470 50 400
6 560 497 -2
Quantity

300
7 510 508 -33
8 520 497 63 200
9 540 510 0
100
10 550 515 5
11 530 10 0
2 4 6 8 10 12
12 523 27
Bulan
13 537

Aktual
4. Wei 450
Bulan 440 Forecast Error 1 2 3
1 460 alpha 0.6 0.3 0.1
2 510
3 520
4 495 453 57 Weighted Moving Average
5 475 488 32 600
6 560 511 -16
500
7 510 504 -29
8 520 486 75 400
9 540 528 -18
Quantity

300
10 550 522 -2
200

100

0
 400

Quantity
300

11 521 19 200
12 531 19
100
13 544
0
0 2 4 6 8 10 12
Bulan

PERBEDAAN ANTARA NAÏVE, SIMPLE AVERAGE, MOVING AVERAGE DAN

Col umn C Col umn D
600

500

400

300

200

100

0
0 2 4 6 8
ve, Simple Average, Moving Average (3), dan Weighted Moving Average (3)

Col umn C

10 12 14

ive Forecasting
ol umn C Col umn D

6 8 10 12 14
Bulan
Average Forecasting

Col umn C
Col umn D

6 8 10 12 14
Bulan

Average Forecasting

Col umn C
Col umn D

8 10 12 14
Bulan

ted Moving Average

Col umn C
 Col umn C

6 8 10 12 14
Bulan

G AVERAGE DAN WEIGHTED MOVING AVERAGE

mn D

8 10 12 14