1.

Above is the list of hypothetical construction companies in two locations England and

Scotland which subscribed to credit insurance that was able to survive and did not

survive after the Brexit. Use the survival analysis to statistically measure the

difference. Scotland in 2014 went into a referendum to decide whether to stay as part

of UK or not. Is economy the reason? Discuss the economic risk Scotland wanted to

avoid before and after the elections.

1.2
chi-sq 0.615385
df 1
1
p-value 0.567232
0.8

0.6

0.4

0.2

0
0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70

England Scotland

Figure 1. Kaplan-Meier estimates for England and Scotland

The Kaplan-Meier survival probability estimates at 60 months were about 0.15 for

the England and 0.34 for the Scotland. As described above, the Kaplan-Meier survival

curves displayed do not indicate straightforward absolute probabilities. Therefore,

statement a cannot be inferred—about 15% of the construction services in England had

to experience the primary endpoint by the end of the 60 months of follow-up. However, in

the Construction Service of Scotland, the probability of reaching the primary endpoint at

60 months was about 0.34%. The test was not significant (P=0.567232) and the null
hypothesis of no difference in survival times in the population between the Construction

services in England and Scotland was accepted. Thus, there is no connection on the

survival of the construction service at England and Scotland.

Economy is the main reason why Scotland want an independence because

Scotland does not meet its full economic potential because it is subject to the same

economic policy as the rest of the UK. According to Colin Fox (2014), Scotland is

penalized by an economic model biased towards the South East of England. Chic Brodie

(2013), also said that Scotland was deprived of economic benefit in the 1980s. Thus, the

reason of the independency of Scotland was primarily on the economic issue. In addition,

an independent Scotland would receive greater agricultural subsidies. Scotland

government also pledged to expand childcare provision. The independent Scotland would

have a total of 15,000 regular and 5,000 reserve personnel across land, air and maritime

forces by 2026 if this interdependence were pursued.

However, Scotland wanted to avoid economic risk before and after the elections.

This includes the Financial Crisis, according to estimates made by the Institute for Fiscal

Studies, Scotland will have a budget deficit of more than 9% of GDP. An independent

Scotland would be responsible for its own finances. This means they can only rely on

their own earnings. Additionally, there were an investment risk to occur, Scotland should

know the side of the businessmen in their scope. Independency could lead to downfall of

business in their area. Conversely, Scotland should consider the credit insurance

because it provides businesses during the uncertain economic condition.