9/7/2018 What Is The Future Of Pak-US Relations?

handling of the deadly war in Afghanistan, which is the longest war in America’s history and has
claimed the lives of more than 2,200 U.S. troops since 2001.

In his remarks about the Afghan crisis, Trump saved his harshest words for Pakistan, warning that he
would cut nancial aid and security assistance to its decades-old South Asian ally if it doesn’t stop
providing “safe havens” to “agents of chaos.” The U.S. President also warned that Islamabad had
“much to lose” by continuing to harbor terrorists

His remarks sparked a furious response in Pakistan, where Prime Minister Shahid Khaqan Abbasi
rejected his allegations and called his Afghan strategy an attempt “to scapegoat Pakistan” during a
high-level meeting of Pakistan’s national security committee.

Gloomy future of Pak-US relations

The future of Pak-US relations remains undecided, as pressure on Islamabad is mounting. For months,
senior U.S. o cials in the Trump administration have criticized Islamabad for allegedly providing safe
havens to militants and not taking su cient action against the Haqqani Network group.

The White House is said to be considering options to strong-arm Pakistan into ghting terrorists on
its own soil. Some analysts suggest that Islamabad could be declared a state sponsor of terrorism by

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9/7/2018 What Is The Future Of Pak-US Relations?

Declaring Pakistan a state sponsor of terrorism would put a heavy

strain on Pakistan-US ties
In a paper published by U.S. think tank Hudson Institute earlier this year, analysts argued that
Washington should cut nancial aid and military supplies to Islamabad and possibly consider
declaring Pakistan a state sponsor of terrorism. However, that’s one move that many in Islamabad
would most likely view as a point of no return in Pak-US relations.

“The U.S. must warn Pakistan that its status as a Major Non-NATO Ally (MNNA) is in serious
jeopardy,” the paper advises.

Being a major non-NATO ally grants Islamabad access to spare military parts and some U.S. defense
programs.

Such radical options may be on the table in the White House if Pakistan doesn’t “appease” the U.S.,
which the nation has done “every time it has been pressured,” according to Hussain Haqqani, one of
the authors of the Hudson Institute report.

Haqqani, who is also a former Pakistani ambassador to Washington, told The Atlantic’s Krishnadev
Calamur that every  “great leap forward” Pakistan has taken in “appeasing” Washington “has been
followed by two steps backwards.” This time, however, it could be an unprecedented situation, as (1)
Pak-US relations have never been so cold and (2) Pakistan has made a dramatic political tilt toward
China lately, a move that prompted criticism in the U.S., which could leave no room for “appeasing” its
former ally.

China comes to Pakistan’s defense amid Pak-US crisis

Even though Pak-US relations have been strong since the end of the Cold War era, they took a turn for
the worst after U.S.-led NATO forces killed 28 Pakistani soldiers in a 2011 airstrike. For decades,
Islamabad was torn apart by China and the U.S., but the tensions in Pak-US relations have pushed the
nation toward Beijing and away from Washington.

In fact, China has already replaced the U.S. as Pakistan’s key economic partner. The total volume of
Pak-US bilateral trade is standing at $5.78 billion, while bilateral trade between the two Asian
neighbors amounts to a whopping $13.36 billion. Additionally, their joint connectivity project, the
China-Pakistan Economic Corridor (CPEC), o ers unique economic opportunities for Pakistan and
solves its power shortages, something the U.S. has failed to address in the decades it has been
Pakistan’s major ally.

On Tuesday – the next day after Trump’s warnings to Islamabad – Chinese Foreign Ministry
spokesperson Hua Chunying defended their “all-weather” friend and praised her country’s neighbor
for making “great sacri ces” and “important contributions.”
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Sentiment in favor of improved Pak-US relations was voiced by a senior White House o cial earlier
this week. Speaking to NDTV on condition of anonymity, the o cial said Pakistan can still “choose to
cooperate with the U.S. and change some of the unhelpful behaviors,” adding that this is “very much
in its interest.”

Pakistan is the key to a U.S. win in Afghanistan

Pakistan has long been considered to be the key to resolving the deadly Afghan crisis. Thus, sour Pak-
US relations in the wake of President Trump’s remarks about Islamabad having “much to lose” by
continuing to harbor terrorist elements on its soil would make America’s anti-terrorism e orts in
Afghanistan less e ective.

Trump announced plans to deploy about 4,000 additional troops to complement America’s fewer than
10,000 troop contingent currently stationed in the war-torn country. However, the U.S. military will
still depend on Pakistan to provide supply routes for American soldiers to Afghanistan.

In the case of further deterioration in Pakistan-US relations, Islamabad could shut down these supply
routes as a countermeasure against the Trump administration’s shift in Afghan policy, suggested Arif
Ra q, a nonresident fellow at the Middle East Institute in Washington, to The New York Times. If
Islamabad cuts access to these supply routes, it would prompt the U.S. to seek less e ective routes that
would likely entail additional nancial expenses and a possible loss of life among U.S. troops. With the
supply routes in Pakistan, the U.S. could make its war strategy in Afghanistan less complicated than it
already is.

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Author: Polina Tikhonova

Polina Tikhonova is a writer, journalist and a certi ed translator. Over the past 7
years, she has worked for a wide variety of top European, American, Russian, and
Ukrainian media outlets. Polina holds a Master's Degree in English Philology from
the University of Oxford and a Bachelor's Degree in Journalism from the Saint
Petersburg State University. Her articles and news reports have been published by
many newspapers, magazines, journals, blogs and online media sources across the
globe.Polina is uent in English, German, Ukrainian and Russian.

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