SUMMARY OUTPUT

Regression Statistics
Multiple R 0.971772
R Square 0.94434
Adjusted R 0.94169
Standard E 0.079452
Observatio 89

ANOVA
df SS MS F Significance F
Regression 4 8.996436 2.249109 356.2908 8.36E-52
Residual 84 0.530256 0.006313
Total 88 9.526692

Coefficients
Standard Error t Stat P-value Lower 95%Upper 95%Lower 95.0%Upper 95.0%
Intercept 6.550576 0.022683 288.792 1.1E-127 6.505469 6.595683 6.505469 6.595683
TREND 0.011995 0.000328 36.5752 2.25E-53 0.011342 0.012647 0.011342 0.012647
MAR 0.163302 0.023958 6.816222 1.33E-09 0.115659 0.210945 0.115659 0.210945
SEPT -0.040765 0.023696 -1.720321 0.089056 -0.087887 0.006357 -0.087887 0.006357
DES 0.000108 0.023965 0.004505 0.996416 -0.047548 0.047764 -0.047548 0.047764
SUMMARY OUTPUT

Regression Statistics
Multiple R 0.971772
R Square 0.94434
Adjusted R 0.94169
Standard E 0.079452
Observatio 89

ANOVA
df SS MS F Significance F
Regression 4 8.996436 2.249109 356.2908 8.36E-52
Residual 84 0.530256 0.006313
Total 88 9.526692

Coefficients
Standard Error t Stat P-value Lower 95%Upper 95%Lower 95.0%Upper 95.0%
Intercept 6.509811 0.022187 293.4129 3E-128 6.465691 6.553932 6.465691 6.553932
TREND 0.011995 0.000328 36.5752 2.25E-53 0.011342 0.012647 0.011342 0.012647
MAR 0.040765 0.023696 1.720321 0.089056 -0.006357 0.087887 -0.006357 0.087887
SEPT 0.040873 0.023696 1.724877 0.088227 -0.006249 0.087995 -0.006249 0.087995
DES 0.204067 0.023694 8.612673 3.57E-13 0.156949 0.251184 0.156949 0.251184
Intercept 6.5098113374
TREND 0.0119945899
MAR 0.0407647631
SEPT 0.0408727285
DES 0.204066591
mape 5.9412250342

RETAIL TURNOVER (million $) TREND MAR SEPT DES

Jun-82 594.3 1 0 0 0
Sep-82 595.3 2 0 1 0
Dec-82 712 3 0 0 1
Mar-83 655.5 4 1 0 0
Jun-83 615.7 5 0 0 0
Sep-83 669.8 6 0 1 0
Dec-83 765.2 7 0 0 1
Mar-84 710.8 8 1 0 0
Jun-84 702.4 9 0 0 0
Sep-84 725.5 10 0 1 0
Dec-84 876.1 11 0 0 1
Mar-85 780.1 12 1 0 0
Jun-85 752.4 13 0 0 0
Sep-85 798.3 14 0 1 0
Dec-85 910.6 15 0 0 1
Mar-86 842.9 16 1 0 0
Jun-86 832.8 17 0 0 0
Sep-86 867 18 0 1 0
Dec-86 1026.9 19 0 0 1
Mar-87 928.4 20 1 0 0
Jun-87 945.4 21 0 0 0
Sep-87 1000.2 22 0 1 0
Dec-87 1110.3 23 0 0 1
Mar-88 993.1 24 1 0 0
Jun-88 961.9 25 0 0 0
Sep-88 1003.3 26 0 1 0
Dec-88 1219.7 27 0 0 1
Mar-89 1095.3 28 1 0 0
Jun-89 1089.9 29 0 0 0
Sep-89 1138.5 30 0 1 0
Dec-89 1307.9 31 0 0 1
Mar-90 1183.9 32 1 0 0
Jun-90 1123.7 33 0 0 0
Sep-90 1168.8 34 0 1 0
Dec-90 1290.1 35 0 0 1
Mar-91 1124.8 36 1 0 0
Jun-91 1105.8 37 0 0 0
Sep-91 1169.9 38 0 1 0
Dec-91 1388.3 39 0 0 1
Mar-92 1210 40 1 0 0
Jun-92 1150.1 41 0 0 0
Sep-92 1170 42 0 1 0
Dec-92 1411 43 0 0 1
Mar-93 1208.5 44 1 0 0
Jun-93 1195.1 45 0 0 0
Sep-93 1211.5 46 0 1 0
Dec-93 1517.1 47 0 0 1
Mar-94 1297 48 1 0 0
Jun-94 1301 49 0 0 0
Sep-94 1382.2 50 0 1 0
Dec-94 1676.5 51 0 0 1
Mar-95 1339.1 52 1 0 0
Jun-95 1357.2 53 0 0 0
Sep-95 1465.8 54 0 1 0
Dec-95 1796.1 55 0 0 1
Mar-96 1507.4 56 1 0 0
Jun-96 1421.9 57 0 0 0
Sep-96 1417.5 58 0 1 0
Dec-96 1761.5 59 0 0 1
Mar-97 1417.3 60 1 0 0
Jun-97 1441 61 0 0 0
Sep-97 1525 62 0 1 0
Dec-97 1876.9 63 0 0 1
Mar-98 1473.6 64 1 0 0
Jun-98 1440.7 65 0 0 0
Sep-98 1559.9 66 0 1 0
Dec-98 1926.2 67 0 0 1
Mar-99 1562.7 68 1 0 0
Jun-99 1523.8 69 0 0 0
Sep-99 1621.3 70 0 1 6000 0
Dec-99 1971.4 71 0 0 1
Mar-00 1589 72 1 0 0
5000
Jun-00 1531 73 0 0 0
Sep-00 1608.3 74 0 1 0
Dec-00 1899.3 75 0 0 4000 1
Mar-01 1653.8 76 1 0 0
Jun-01 1550 77 0 0 3000 0
Sep-01 1613.3 78 0 1 0
Dec-01 1938.8 79 0 0 2000 1
Mar-02 1693.5 80 1 0 0
Jun-02 1684.9 81 0 0 0
Sep-02 1810.6 82 0 1 1000 0
Dec-02 2065.1 83 0 0 1
Mar-03 1667.6 84 1 0 0 0
Jun-03 1635.4 85 0 0 2 0 5 88 91
-8 n-
8
n- n- n-
9
Sep-03 1852.7 86 0 1 Jun 0 Ju Ju Ju Ju
Dec-03 2314.8 87 0 0 1
Mar-04 1892 88 1 0 0
Jun-04 1843 89 0 0 0
Ln PRODUCTION forecast Mape
6.3873842424 708.1660894299 1.138661
6.3890654802 1948.2235682445 13.52924
6.5680779114 889.5666434237 1.775666
6.4853983032 764.6568634421 1.091569
6.4227598319 742.9710018739 1.27271
6.5069791604 2043.9747652112 13.74175
6.6401372376 933.2870214531 1.68087
6.5663910963 802.2381816937 0.914382
6.5545030423 779.4865044582 0.770865
6.5868610723 2144.431937339 14.18932
6.7754802397 979.1561664908 1.030562
6.6594221166 841.6665447428 0.615665
6.6232680974 817.7966691835 0.653967
6.6824844667 2249.8263736658 14.51526
6.8141037229 1027.2796860329 1.166797
6.736848327 883.0327310571 0.401327
6.7247935173 857.9897000174 0.251897
6.7650389768 2360.4007306118 14.93401
6.9342998342 1077.7683779676 0.508684
6.8334626744 926.4319806799 0.01968
6.8516081184 900.1581359714 0.452419
6.907955259 2476.409590663 14.7621
7.0123855281 1130.7384856726 0.204385
6.9008313639 971.9642145078 0.211358
6.8689104952 944.3990641603 0.175009
6.9110498459 2598.1200485133 15.9482
7.1063602058 1186.311965649 0.33388
6.9987835773 1019.7342643444 0.755657
6.9938412279 990.8143433312 0.990857
7.0374668855 2725.8123260132 15.87312
7.1761780765 1244.6167683104 0.632832
7.0765693524 1069.8521142619 1.140479
7.0243820909 1039.5108383804 0.841892
7.0637328604 2859.7804173434 16.9098
7.1624750137 1305.7871325709 0.156871
7.0253605211 1122.4331538241 0.023668
7.0083243339 1090.6006663946 0.151993
7.0646735541 3000.3327658961 18.30433
7.235835256 1369.9638949124 0.183361
7.0983756386 1177.5984437556 0.324016
7.0476041741 1144.2014547856 0.058985
 7.0647590278 3147.7929744242 19.77793
7.2520539519 1437.2948136412 0.262948
7.0971352001 1235.4749946677 0.26975
7.0859851429 1200.4366121117 0.053366
7.0996145403 3302.5005500932 20.91001
7.3245558968 1507.9349090816 0.091651
7.1678091843 1296.1960594829 0.008039
7.1708884785 1259.435612209 0.415644
7.2314317117 3464.8116861501 20.82612
7.4244635659 1582.0468204894 0.944532
7.1997530255 1359.9014402318 0.208014
7.2131790329 1321.3342922871 0.358657
7.2901564475 3635.10008201 21.693 R
7.4933729266 1659.8011805066 1.362988
7.3181415914 1426.7378099284 0.806622 2500
7.2597492844 1386.2751656765 0.356248
7.2566500356 3813.7578036491 23.96258 2000
7.4739209978 1741.3770080197 0.20123
7.2565089322 1496.859050265 0.795591
7.273092596 1454.4077499457 0.134077 1500
7.329749689 4001.1961862826 24.76196
7.5373767587 1826.9621203271 0.499379
7.2954636655 1570.4266059035 0.968266 1000
7.2728843856 1525.8889111455 0.851889
7.3523769956 4197.8467814092 26.37947
500
7.5633044291 1916.7535655624 0.094464
7.3541703734 1647.6098561806 0.849099
7.328962494 1600.8832249716 0.770832 0
6000 7.3909835756 4404.1623503994 27.82862
82 84 86 88
7.5864992292 2010.9580763712 0.395581 un- un- un- un-
J J J J
7.3708601665 1728.5865050801 1.395865
5000
7.3336763957 1679.563355678 1.485634
7.3829329995 4620.6179069176 30.12318
4000 7.5492406762 2109.7925458853 2.104925
7.4108309493 1813.5429903724 1.59743
3000 7.3460102099 1762.1104536132 2.121105 RETAIL TURNOVER (million $)
7.3860370497 4847.7118105765 32.34412
forecast
2000 7.569824504 2213.4845270894 2.746845
7.4345526723 1902.6749128628 2.091749
7.4294614938 1848.7145722939 1.638146
1000 7.501413561 5085.9669143428 32.75367
7.6329339304 2322.2727567313 2.571728
0 7.419140746 1996.187486735 3.285875
82 8 5 88 91
7.3996427017 94 97
1939.5751059781 00 03
3.041751
n- n- n- 7.5243993136
n- n- n- n-
5335.9317683354 n-
34.83232
Ju Ju Ju Ju Ju Ju Ju Ju
7.7470785697 2436.4077049808 1.216077
7.5453897496 2094.2960120296 2.02296
7.5191499577 2034.9012487429 1.919012
 RETAIL TURNOVER (million $)
0

RETAIL TURNOVER (million $)

0

0
82 84 86 88 90 92 94 96 98 00 02 0 4
n- un- un- un- un- un- un- un- un- un- un- n-
J J J J J J J J J J Ju

R (million $)