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COWLES FOUNDATION DISCUSSION PAPER NO. 1009
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The "Dice" Model: Background and Structure
Of a Dynamic Integrated
Climate-Economy
Model of the Economics of Global Warming
by
William D. Nordhaus
February 1992Preface
‘This study is designed to present the methodological and technical
assumptions and the results behind the Dynamic Integrated model of Climate and
the Economy (the DICE model). It is a model that attempts to use the tools of
modern economics to determine an efficient strategy for coping with the threat of
global warming. The fundamental premise behind this study is that societies
should undertake environmental policies only when their benefits, broadly
construed, exceed their costs and that the level of environmental control should be
at that point where the incremental benefits of additional controls no longer
exceed the incremental costs.
In the area of global warming, this general strategy is easy to articulate and
difficult to execute. The work embodied in this study lays out one approach — the
use of dynamic economic optimization ~ to the construction of an efficient control
strategy. The present study differs from earlier ones by the author and other
researchers in two respects. First, it attempts to integrate both the economic costs
and benefits of greenhouse-gas controls with a simple aggregate model linking
economic growth with climate change. The primary new development here,
however, is the inclusion of both economic and climate dynamics, Because of the
long residence times of greenhouse gases and the long time lags in both economic
activity and in climate change, dynamics are of the essence, Any study which
overlooks the dynamics may produce misleading conclusions for the steps that we
should take at the dawn of the age of greenhouse warming,
‘The present study represents the technical background and documentation
for a model of economic growth in the presence of global warming. The model
itself is relatively small by the standards of both economics and the related natural
sciences, but many of the components will be unfamiliar to those outside the
disciplines from which the individual components are derived. The purpose of this
study, therefore, is to lay out in detail both the assumptions and the underlying
derivations of the relationships underpinning the DICE model.
Pl‘This study consists primarily of the background equations of the DICE
model rather than analyzing the policy implications or analyzing the impacts of
alternative specifications of the model, These further refinements remain on the
agenda of future research.
The present study was supported by the National Science Foundation. It
has benefitted from an invisible college of scholars who have contributed to the
development of the field of the economics of global environmental issues. Early
co-workers in the economics of the greenhouse effect who imparted their wisdom
included Jesse Ausubel, William Clark, William Cline, Jae Edmonds, Howard
Gruenspecht, Dale Jorgenson, Geoffrey Heal, William Hogan, Lester Lave, Alan
Manne, Richard Morgenstern, David Pearce, John Reilly, Richard Richels,
Thomas Schelling, John Weyant, the late David Wood, and Gary Yohe. The
author is grateful for helpful suggestions from colleagues at Yale, including
William Brainard, Richard Levin, and Herbert Scarf, as well as for comments on
earlier versions of this work by Edward Barbier, Richard Cooper, Peter Diamond,
Herbert Giersch, and Leo Schrattenholzer. Scientists in other disciplines have
tutored me on innumerable occasions, and I am particularly indebted to Robert
Chen, Thomas Lee, Thomas Malone, William Nierenberg, John Perry, Roger
Ravelle, Stephen Schneider, Karl Turekian, and Paul Waggoner. Finally, I am
enormously grateful to Zili Yang for dedicated and patient research assistance. All
errors that have survived the interchanges with these colleagues are my sole
responsibility.
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