October 2018 ■ Volume 08 ■ 10

What a September!
Greetings from FundsIndia!
September was a happening month
in many ways. As always, the regulator
was busy fiddling with their favorite plaything - mutual
funds, the equity markets were stumbling quite a bit,
the debt markets too joined the mayhem, and towards
the end of the month, the Supreme court joined in to
create some news as well.
Phew!
Let me just briefly touch upon each of these and
provide a two-line commentary on them:
1. SEBI Regulations - SEBI opened the month
with a press release saying that the TER of mutual
funds were being cut to pass on the advantage of
scale to the customers. At FundsIndia, although it
will affect our revenue, we are glad that the
industry is moving in the right direction with
respect to controlling costs and investor fees.
2. Equity Markets - the stumble in the equity
markets was steep - Nifty fell by 6.4% in the month
and the bleeding is continuing into October as we
speak. We are watching the markets carefully and
seeking opportunities as they may arise.
3. Debt Markets - the IL&FS debacle which
emerged in the middle of the month dented the
confidence of debt issuers (including mutual
funds), and this has impacted mark to market
yields of debt papers significantly. We are having
an even closer watch on this scenario.
4. Supreme Court - Rejoice! You do not have to go
through the rigmarole of linking your Aadhaar to
your mutual fund folios! At FundsIndia, we are a
bit worried about eKYC and its validity - we’ll see
how it unfolds.
That’s a lot to process for a single month! We are
going hot to trot into October hoping the festival
season will bring some much needed relief and
not-too-soon prosperity!
Happy Dusserah and happy investing!
Srikanth Meenakshi
Co-Founder & COO
FundsIndia.com

@FundsIndia
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 When the market falls…

If you have started receiving WhatsApp messages that say – ‘BSE: Bombay Se Exit’ and
‘P/E: Plunge endless’, you know the bear sentiments are in full force. And, that is how it feels
in a bear market. How do we say that? When 95% of the stocks in the BSE 500 have fallen
15% on an average in the past 1 month, you know you are dealing with a bear’s grip.

For those of you who entered the equity markets in the In all, volatility is the name of the game here. If you
past 1 year, the high negative returns in your portfolio wear your seat belts, close your eyes to the daily ticker
may paint a scary picture. If you are new to the capital moves and do not try to get off midway, we see no
markets, there is only one thing you need to know, reason for you to be hurt.
market declines happen, and they happen quite regularly. Happy market sale!
Globally if you consider the last 10 decades of data,
stock markets have experienced a 10% drop at least Vidya Bala
once a year. A 20% decline occurred every 3.5 years on Head – Mutual Fund Research
FundsIndia.com
an average and a 30% decline once in 10 years on an
average. There have also been years when in the same
year of large declines, markets ended with positive
returns. In other words, the market is a roller coaster.
The current correction has all signs of a bear market
and here are some of those signs: one, extraneous
factors such as trade war, strengthening dollar, and rising
yields have resulted in significant FPI pullout. Two,
internal factors such as challenges in dealing with crude
price rise, and liquidity and governance issues in the
financial space have led to sharp corrections in most Investment Quiz
pockets. Three, market has been ruthless to all sectors
barring IT where the dollar benefit is evident and to a 1. Who said these words - "Every once in a while,
smaller extent to metals, given the commodity the market does something so stupid it takes your
strengthening globally. breath away"?
In all this though, it is interesting to note that none of 2. Who wrote ‘The Intelligent Investor’?
these are factors which pose a ‘crisis’ like the situation of 3. When was the NSE established?
2008. All of these can be dealt with. The government
4. Who will head the Group of Ministers (GoM) to
and RBI are cognizant of any spillover effect in any
examine modalities for ‘calamity tax’ under GST?
crisis of confidence whether it is about liquidity or
governance. 5. Which Indian origin personality has been named
as Chief Economist of the International
However, there are more headwinds between now and
Monetary Fund (IMF)?
up until the central elections in May 2019. November
will see the sanction on Iran by the US. This is vital from Please click here to submit your answers.
a crude supply perspective for India. Some of the state Answers for September 2018 Investment Quiz: 1. Singapore
elections will also offer cues for the upcoming Central 2. Mauritius 3. Sunil Mehta 4. 7.5% 5. New Delhi
Elections. In the near term, earnings season could
The winner of the September 2018 Investment Quiz
provide relief rally in some stocks while severely
is Lakireddy Vinod Kumar.
punishing others even for marginal underperformance.
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Ab market ke utar-chadhav
ka darr kaisa?

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 Do actively managed funds underperform benchmarks?
Over the last couple of years, there has been a lot of
talk about index funds. Some are convinced that index
funds are better than actively managed funds. Some say
that actively managed funds are effectively defrauding
investors by charging exorbitant expense ratios. This
article will seek to explore whether these views stem
from performance metrics, in the Indian context.
How did index investing emerge?
In the 1950s, American investor John C. Bogle
conducted a study for his undergraduate thesis. He
found that most mutual funds in the US failed to beat
their benchmark index. Some of the funds did beat the
benchmarks, but couldn’t pass on the benefits to the
investors as the charges were higher than the margin of
outperformance. Hence Bogle concluded that it was
better for retail investors to invest directly in the index.
In 1976, Bogle launched the first passively managed
fund, also known as an index fund, based on the S&P
500. The fund was called Vanguard 500 Index fund.
This index constitutes the 500 largest companies in the
US market. Because it was passively managed, Bogle
charged a very low fee. Later Bogle launched more
funds, but the Vanguard 500 Index fund remains the
most popular fund till date.
Relevance in the Indian market
While index investing has a big market in the US, its
relevance in the Indian context is debatable for various
reasons. The number of actively traded companies in
India is significantly lower than that of the US. That
means markets are far less efficient thus providing
enough opportunities to generate alpha. Besides, the
size of the mutual fund industry in India compared
with the total market capitalisation is insignificant. For
example, the size of MF industry crossed 16% of total
market cap only last year. As opposed to this, MF
AUM accounts for over 85% of the total US market
cap. In addition to that, indices in India are not
managed the same way as the S&P 500 of the US.
Popular Indian indices simply weigh the components
based on their market capitalisation. The S&P 500
weights are actively decided.
What about fund performances in India
Looking at returns today might convince you that
active funds are on the decline in our markets as well.
But it is not that simple. Looking at performance history
and trends in funds will give a better understanding of
where active funds stand. There are two questions which
need to be answered for this analysis:
1. Which funds to include
2. What period to consider
In trying to strike a balance between the above two
questions, we considered data for the last 11 years and
include all open ended equity funds which existed as on
31st July 2007 and have survived till date. This gave us a
sample of 110 funds. We used this period because it
covers a wider universe of funds and incorporates
different market cycles.
Looking at fund performance
We divided the funds into five different categories, ELSS
funds, large-cap funds, midcap funds, multicap funds,
and small cap funds. We compared each category of
funds to a common benchmark, using the TRI version
of the indices. We used the following benchmarks:
Based on these, we assessed the performance on three
different parameters:
Category Benchmark used
ELSS Funds NSE Nifty 500 TRI
Large-cap funds S&P BSE 100 TRI
Mid-cap funds NSE Midcap 100 TRI
Multi-cap funds NSE Nifty 500 TRI
Small-cap funds S&P BSE Small cap TRI
• Rolling returns
• Margin of outperformance
• SIP performance
Performance based on rolling returns
When it comes to assessing returns, rolling returns (as
opposed to point-to-point returns) is a superior metric
to look at since it helps assess performance irrespective
of when you invested. Looking at the performance of
the fund on a single day would be like watching a match
where Sachin Tendulkar scored a duck and pronouncing
him to be a poor batsman. We all know that is not the
case; consistency matters more. So we look at the rolling
returns of funds, which gives us an idea of how funds
have performed over time.
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For this analysis, we looked at 3-year and 5-year rolling
returns of funds. On a 3-year rolling return basis, apart
from large-cap category, all other categories beat their
indices over 70% of the times in the last 8 years. The
large-cap category still managed 53%.
On a 5-year rolling return basis, multi-cap and small-cap
funds have almost always beaten their indices over the
last 6 years. ELSS and mid-cap funds have managed to
beat the indices around 90% of the times. Large-caps
beat the index 60% of the time.
Here is a graph showing how often category averages
beat benchmark indices:
Margin of outperformance
Margin of outperformance is calculated by subtracting
the average rolling return of the index from the average
rolling return of the benchmark.
The average margin of outperformance is very small for
large-cap funds, slightly more for multi-cap and ELSS
funds and bigger for mid-cap and small-cap funds.
Again, the margin of outperformance was higher over a
5-year period.
What the numbers say is that outperformance still exists
in most fund categories, especially over the longer term.
Given that equity funds are meant to for long
timeframes, market-plus returns are not a thing of the
past.
You might argue based on recent fund performance as
they all seem to be undershooting their benchmarks.
We’ve explained the reason for this in earlier articles. To
recap, the primary reason behind the recent
underperformance is that benchmark returns are being
driven by a small set of stocks while the broader market
is in a corrective phase.
This apart, going by the historical rolling return, funds
also tend to underperform towards the end of a long
bull run. Outperformance is also higher in the year
following a correction. This stems from the point that
quality funds tend to become cautious and move to
cheaper stocks when valuations are high triggering an
underperformance. This also helps push returns when
markets recover.
SIPs beat the market all the time
SIP is a popular method of investing in mutual funds. So
we looked at how SIP investments compare with the
benchmark. You might conclude that the same
outperformance metric would apply to SIP investments
too. But here’s the actual trend - SIP returns is where
the actively managed funds deliver the knockout blow.
We took a 5-year SIP for this purpose as that is the
normal holding period recommended for equity funds.
We took the value of SIPs starting at various points, on
5 dates of each month, starting August 2007.

While the messaging has been clear that interest rates as a tool is primarily meant only for the
purpose of inflation targeting and not for currency defense, we do feel that more rate hikes would
be required going ahead based on global market developments and our own inflation projections.
B Prasanna, Group Executive and Head-Global Markets Group, ICICI Bank

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SIP performance is where actively managed funds
outshine the indices. Barring large-cap funds, all other
categories beat the indices on all occasions - not 75% or
90%, but 100% of the SIPs beat the index SIPs (Refer
above graph).
SIPs help smoothen out the market volatility and
average your costs. This also means that investing
through the period of fund underperformance helps
average costs down. When funds move back into
outperformance, the lower costs help pull returns
higher. Regardless of when you started the SIP in the
last 11 years, you would have beaten the index on a
5-year basis.
What’s the way forward?
We can definitely observe that large caps have found it
difficult to beat indices. With the exception of Aditya
Birla Sun Life Frontline Equity, no other fund has
consistently beaten the benchmark index.
In this space, funds would have to be cost conscious to
generate superior returns and the recent change in total
expense ratio might help pass on higher returns to
investors. Still, the period of high return
outperformance in the large-cap space may well not
come by again. In other categories, the challenge is the
changing nature of the market. Ten years ago, funds
found it easier to beat the index since the market was
less developed with more information arbitrage.
Discovering new stocks was easier as the information
flow was lesser. This opportunity has reduced now.
Hence, only select funds with the right strategies and
stock picks outperform. That also means that there been
a significant variation in the performance of funds even
within a category, with fewer funds managing consistent
outperformance.
On the other hand, there is the emergence of newer
index funds such as the Nifty Next 50 that can provide
competition, especially to the large-cap category.
Smart-beta and multi-factor index strategies which
decide stock allocations based on factors such as sector/
theme, volatility, valuations, fundamental metrics and so
on are also emerging; albeit with limited awareness at
this stage. These have the potential to to outperform the
traditional market-cap weighted indices. For example,
the Nifty Next 50 is one index which has managed to
beat traditional large cap indices like Nifty 100 as well as
some multi-cap funds.
These emerging products, which may be little more
actively managed than traditional indices, may provide
efficient substitutes to the lagging segments in mutual
funds.
Should you invest in actively managed funds
Our answer would be an overwhelming yes. While
sustained bull runs like the present one do reduce a fund
manager’s ability to outperform benchmarks, in the long
run, there is no doubt that fund managers have delivered
returns higher than indices.
But fund selection plays an important role, to ensure
that you are with the fund that is able to beat the market
on a sustained basis. This comes from having a clear
strategy and being able to adapt to the changing nature
of the market. This, along with investing through SIPs
provides significant chances of beating the market.
Our market indices are not yet at the stage where it
becomes impossible to beat them. This apart, currently,
index fund returns remain poor due to management
costs and tracking error. Our analysis shows us that on
a 3-year basis, there is an approximate tracking error of
close to -1%. This means fund returns will be a
percentage point below the index itself!
Also, the concern of underperformance is mainly in the
large-cap space. Investors can reduce the risk of
underperforming by carefully mixing large & mid and
multicap funds. These funds not only offer higher
returns than large cap funds, they also have a high
historical track record of outperforming their
benchmark.
Coupled with the fact that AMCs currently mostly offer
funds only based on large cap indices, you do not have
much choice in the mid-cap and small-cap space at all.
So by investing only in index funds, you will lose out on
the superior return potential of companies outside the
index, which is where stock discovery happens in the
first place!
Gourav Kumar
Principal Research Analyst – Mutual Fund Research
FundsIndia.com
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 How to choose liquid funds
The recent events around IL&FS’ debt paper downgrades have raised concerns about how
safe even short-term debt funds like liquid funds are, for retail investors. Should your clients
fear these or with some careful judgement can they minimize their chances of risks in this
category? This article has some simple tips to choose liquid funds and use them as a stable
portfolio diversifier.

Vidya Bala

The recent scare
A few liquid funds from the Principal, LIC, Union
houses came under the radar for a hit to their NAVs
because of providing for mark-to-market losses on their
holdings in IL&FS and its group companies. There were
funds from other categories too, holdings papers from
the said group. However, a hit to the NAV of a liquid
fund, considered the least risky, most liquid and meant
for short term, has raised questions on how investors
should approach this category. Before we move on to
how you can choose liquid funds for your clients, it is
important to know that the present risk that has
surfaced is not an all-pervasive one in the liquid
category. For example, barring one fund, the entire
universe did not hold short term papers below A1+ as
of August 2018. The average holding in instruments
below AAA was a mere 0.7% and that too held by a
handful of funds. Hence, that liquid funds knowingly
go for high risk papers is not an easily acceptable
argument. The outlier cases like IL&FS where
downgrade happened from top rating will of course be
hard to identify but rare to occur in this category.
With that aside, how can you choose funds to reduce
the risk of holding a fund that will take a NAV hit?
Don’t go merely by chart toppers: In the liquid space,
it is very hard for funds to generate returns that are
significantly different from peers unless they take
marginal risks. Such risk would primarily come the
commercial paper space. For example, Principal Cash
Management, which was among the top performers
until the recent hit, still has the highest yield to maturity
in the category (as of August 2018) at 7.56%; higher
than the category average of 7.08%. Hence, do not get
lured by the topper in this space. Your clients are better
off with funds slightly lower in ranks provided they fulfil
the other criterion we mention below.
Fund ratings need to be viewed with caution:
Ratings of liquid funds by various online websites are
mostly influenced by returns alone and do not
adequately consider risk or diversification. As a result,
going by ratings alone may not be a prudent idea in this
category. At FundsIndia, while our ratings are not merely
based on returns, there may be funds with higher ratings
that we would not recommend if we have concerns with
the size of the fund house or their strategies. These,
would not be captured in a quantitative rating
methodology. Hence, if a fund has above average
category returns and fulfills our other criterion here, they
should prefer it even if it is not a 5-star rated fund.
Fund houses: While we are fans of smaller fund houses
and their unique strategies, when it comes to liquid
funds, we prefer known names. Such fund houses attract
treasury money of very large corporate houses and
hence have a heightened onus to keep risks at bay and
follow enough due diligence. This helps pin more
responsibility on the fund manager and in the process
their money too has a better chance of being safe.
Size matters in liquid funds: Liquid funds are
predominantly used by institutional investors for their
treasury needs. When the AUM of a fund is small,
redemptions by institutions with large exposure can
impact returns. Hence funds with tens of thousands of
crores is a blessing not a threat when it comes to this
category.

Recall that prior to this we had two rate hikes in the space of literally, two months and today’s stance
of calibrated tightening essentially means that in this cycle, rate cut is off the table.
Urjit Patel, Governor, RBI

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Look for diversification: Instances of top rated (A1+) Funds to invest
papers being downgraded to A4 are hard to predict nor Here are some funds that will fit the above criteria quite
can funds with such holdings be avoided. However, well and in addition show the least instances of negative
what can be done is a check of the returns when returns are rolled weekly over the past 10
concentration/diversification of a fund in the years (or since inception). They have also never had
underlying instruments. For example, Axis Liquid has negative returns when returns were rolled fortnightly. In
134 securities in its portfolio. As a result, its exposure other words, over 2-week periods, these funds did not
to individual securities (barring treasury bills) is low. deliver any negative returns in the past decade.
Hence, even if one of its commercial papers is hit, the
impact on NAV will not be high. On the other hand, 1-year YTM AUM No. of
Fund
Principal Cash Management, with just 20 securities, has returns (%) (%) (Rs crore) instruments
concentrated exposure to individual instrument and Axis
hence any hit also causes more pain. 7.13 7.14 30,065 134
Liquid
Instruments to look for: Needless to say, treasury bills SBI
7 7.2 49,732 128
are the safest, but a fund cannot load itself only with Liquid
treasury bills as its supply is not infinite. Hence, funds UTI
supplement their portfolios with certificates of deposits 7.1 7.1 45,537 180
Liquid
(CD), commercial papers (CP), and some NCDs which
are nearing maturity. Note that liquid funds cannot hold Returns as of September 18, 2018. YTM and AUM as of
a portfolio with an average maturity of over 90 days. August 2018
Hence, there is no duration risk in this category. What
you would need to look for is a healthy dose of treasury Please note that your clients can use these funds for all
bills (liquid funds on an average held about 13% in the regular purposes of a liquid fund – short-term
treasury bills) and the rest mostly in CDs and CPs. parking, systematic withdrawal or even as a diversifier
Concentrated exposure in CPs (over 5%) is something to their equity portfolio. Where they are doing STPs,
they will have to stick to liquid funds in the respective
to look for in terms of identifying risks, especially if
fund houses. In such an event, their objective should be
such CPs are top holdings and are from lesser known
to choose a good equity fund rather than focus on the
companies.
temporarily held liquid fund.
While using the above criteria will not entirely insulate
Happy investing!
your clients from NAV shocks, it will certainly reduce
their chances. We use these besides established Vidya Bala
quantitative metrics by providing appropriate weights to Head – Mutual Fund Research
them. This helps identify the low-risk, optimal return FundsIndia.com
options.

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Q&A FundsIndia Select Funds
Q: Can we do a SIP in multi cap + small cap funds for
a period of 10 years for wealth creation? Or is a Tax-savings funds
combination of ELSS and multicap a better option? Equity-oriented funds with a lock-in of three years.
A: You can run SIPs in multicap and smallcap funds if Qualifies for deduction upto Rs 1.5 lakh under Section
your horizon is 10 years, without a doubt. However, you 80C of the Income Tax Act, 1961, in the year of
need to ensure that the amount or the allocation you investment.
have in smallcap is not high or a majority of your
Moderate Risk
investment. You need to mix moderate risk funds in
your portfolio. Aggressive multicap funds together with 1. Axis Long Term Equity Fund(G)
smallcap funds is too high-risk even if you’re a high-risk 2. DSP Tax Saver Fund-Reg(G)
investor. Such a combination will increase your
3. Franklin India Taxshield(G)
portfolio’s volatility, and in times of market correction
it can steeply pull down your portfolio. Recovery will 4. Invesco India Tax Plan(G)
take a longer time than falls that are shallower. High Risk
Moderate risk can come from large-cap funds or
1. Aditya Birla SL Tax Relief '96(G)
multicap funds which are not aggressive in taking
mid-cap and small-cap exposure. Multi-cap and 2. Motilal Oswal Long Term Equity Fund-Reg(G)
small-cap should not be the only category combination 3. Tata India Tax Savings Fund-Reg(G)
in your portfolio. The call on what proportion to hold in
To view our complete list of Select Funds, click here.
smallcap or whether you need to hold small cap funds at
all depends on your risk appetite. ELSS funds are
basically multicap funds that have a tax benefit
advantage. In terms of performance ability, they are not
a distinct category.
Bhavana Acharya
Deputy Head – Mutual Fund Research
FundsIndia.com

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Technical View Nifty
The Nifty witnessed relentless selling in the month of
September, tested a high of 11,750 but failed to keep
momentum and slipped below its crucial level of 11,090.
Bears continued to dominate in Dalal street in the first
week of October also. The medium-term trend will turn
bullish only if the index trades above the 10,780 mark.
With the Nifty trading below the 200-day Simple Moving
Average (SMA) of 10,780, we believe the ongoing selling
pressure may continue if the index breaks below 10,250
levels. Crucial support for Nifty is placed at 10,120 and
9,952. Resistance is at 10,420 and 10,600.

Dabur India Ltd Cadila Healthcare Ltd

Dabur India has declined sharply from a high of Rs. 490
to test a low of Rs. 404. Currently, the stock is trading
above the support level of Rs. 390 and that indicates the
stock remains bullish for the long term. Major resistance
is at Rs. 442 and Rs. 470. Strong support is at Rs. 390
and Rs. 367. The 100-day SMA is at Rs. 410. We
recommend investing in Dabur for a medium-term
target of Rs. 490, maintain stop loss at Rs. 365.
Cadila Healthcare is currently trading in a consolidation
band of Rs. 340 to Rs. 420 for the past 6 months. We
expect the stock to bounce back from support levels of
Rs. 373. The latest 50-day SMA is at Rs. 386. We
recommend investing in Cadila for a medium-term target
of Rs. 432 with stop loss at Rs. 337. The recent market
correction provides an opportunity to accumulate the
stock at current levels. Resistance is at Rs. 386 and Rs.
420. Strong support is at Rs. 362 and Rs. 340.

This column is targeted at investors who are registered customers of Perumal Raja
FundsIndia for trading and investing in equity as well as prospective Technical Analyst - Equity Research Desk
investors who wish to open an equity account with FundsIndia. FundsIndia.com
Disclaimer: Mutual fund investments are subject to market risks. Please read the scheme information and other related documents before investing. Past performance is
not indicative of future returns. Please consider your specific investment requirements before choosing a fund, or designing a portfolio that suits your needs. Investments
in equity shares, debentures, etc. are not obligations of, or guaranteed by Wealth India Financial Services Pvt. Ltd., and are subject to investment risks. Wealth India Financial
Services Pvt. Ltd. (ARN code 69583) makes no warranties or representations, express or implied, on products offered through the platform. It accepts no liability for any
damages or losses, however caused, in connection with the use of, or reliance on its products or related services. The terms and conditions of the website are applicable.
Think FundsIndia, a monthly publication of Wealth India Financial Services Pvt. Ltd., is for information purposes only. Think FundsIndia is not, and should not, be
construed as a prospectus, scheme information document, offer document or recommendation. Information in this document has been obtained from sources that are
credible and reliable in the opinion of the Editor.
Publisher: Wealth India Financial Services Private Ltd. Editor: Srikanth Meenakshi

About us: FundsIndia is India’s friendliest online-only investment platform. Built on robust technology, FundsIndia
gives users access to mutual funds from leading fund houses in India, stocks from the BSE, corporate fixed deposits
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shop to build wealth.

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