Music Broadcast
BSE SENSEX S&P CNX
34,780 10,453 CMP: INR325 TP: INR420 (+29%) Buy
Operating leverage at play
EBITDA to grow 21% over FY18-21E
The Music Broadcast Ltd (MBL) stock is down ~30% from its peak YTD—partly due to
concerns over growth visibility for the radio medium at large, and MBL in particular.
Stock Info
RADIOCIT IN
Also, MBL posted weak 10% revenue growth in FY18 and 8% revenue CAGR in 1HFY19,
Bloomberg
57
which is much lower than our expectation. In this context, we hosted MBL management
Equity Shares (m)
18.6 / 0.3
for an investor roadshow to discuss the radio sector outlook and MBL’s growth
M.Cap.(INRb)/(USDb)
52-Week Range (INR) 458 / 282
prospects. Key takeaways:
a.) As per management, the current low growth is largely due to weak retail/local, real
1, 6, 12 Rel. Per (%) 8/-17/-23
estate and government advertisements, which is witnessing slow recovery post
12M Avg Val (INR M) 14
demonetization/GST. Management also reaffirmed that over the next three years,
Free float (%) 27.9
company should grow revenues at 13-15% CAGR and PAT at 20-25% led by steep
operating leverage coming from 90% fixed cost.
Financials Snapshot (INR b)
b.) TV players have seen swift recovery from demonetization/GST due to FMCG
Y/E Mar 2018 2019E 2020E
companies, which contribute less than 10% to the radio sector v/s over 50% for the
Sales 3.0 3.4 3.9 TV industry. However, radio has not lost its sheen in India where listenership
EBITDA 1.0 1.2 1.4 remains steady at 54mins for 5.1days/week—radio is viable for advertisers due to its
NP 0.5 0.7 0.9 reach and also because it’s a cost efficient medium.
EPS (INR) 9.1 11.9 15.8 c.) Even in the US/UK, reach as well as time spent on radio has remained strong driven
EPS Gr. (%) 41.1 31.7 32.4 by healthy radio ad growth. In fact, radio ad growth is higher than the growth in the
BV/Sh. (INR) 105.1 109.6 125.4 overall media spends.
RoE (%) 9.0 11.0 13.4 d.) With majority of the heavy lifting behind (license renewal and new phase III station
RoCE (%) 9.2 10.8 13.5 launch), both operating cost and capex has peaked out in FY18, driving strong
P/E (x) 35.8 27.2 20.6 operating leverage, OCF generation and RoCE improvement.
P/BV (x) 3.1 3.0 2.6 e.) The recent acquisition of the Kolkata station (awaiting Ministry of Information and
EV/EBITDA (x) 18.8 15.8 11.9 Broadcasting approval) and potential consolidation opportunities should further fuel
growth. MBL’s high-cash generation should also drive investor returns in the form of
Shareholding pattern (%) dividend and buy backs.
As On Sep-18 Jun-18 Sep-17
Promoter 72.1 71.4 71.4 Reaffirm 13-15% revenue CAGR over next three years
DII 8.1 8.1 8.3 The expected healthy growth of 13-15% over the next three years should be
FII 3.5 4.0 5.1 driven by a mix of pricing and volume growth across markets, which are in
Others 16.2 16.5 15.2 different growth phases. Of MBL’s 39 stations, 12 are in the ‘matured’ phase, 16
FII Includes depository receipts are in the ‘growth’ phase and around 11 are ‘new’. This mix of
matured/growth/new should fuel revenue growth of about 8%/12%/25% over the
Stock Performance (1-year)
next 2-3 years. Growth for stations in the ‘matured’ phase would be fueled 2/3 by
Music Broadcast
Sensex - Rebased pricing and 1/3 by volume; while stations in the ‘growth’ phase would be driven
540 2/3 by volume. The ‘new’ phase III stations should be purely volume led. The
470 recent weak environment has curtailed price increase opportunities; however,
400 management highlighted that the company still took 6-8% price increase in the
330 last 2-3 years. Therefore, if the market environment improves, it should be able to
260 increase prices further. The recently announced Kolkata acquisition should also
Jul-18
Apr-18
Jan-18
Oct-17
Oct-18
contribute 10% to the growth and can be scaled to company level margin in two
years. The completion of lock-in period in the radio market has opened up
acquisition opportunities. With limited buyers in the market, MBL is in a favorable
position as it has a healthy net cash position of INR2.2b. We expect 14% revenue
CAGR over FY18-21E taking its revenue to INR4.4b.
17 October 2018 2
Music Broadcast
Story in charts
Exhibit 2: Revenue and EBITDA margin trend (INR m)
Revenue (INR m) EBITDA margin (%)
39.2 41.7
36.9 36.0 36.6 36.0 34.4
32.2 29.0 31.5 28.8 30.5 31.5 31.9 30.6
24.2 24.9
430
513
564
502
455
555
648
590
628
692
728
666
703
758
762
759
757
1QFY15
2QFY15
3QFY15
4QFY15
1QFY16
2QFY16
3QFY16
4QFY16
1QFY17
2QFY17
3QFY17
4QFY17
1QFY18
2QFY18
3QFY18
4QFY18
1QFY19
Source: MOSL, Company
Exhibit 3: Revenue from new stations on an uptrend (INR m) Exhibit 4: EBITDA mix of legacy and new stations (INR m)
20%
13% 12% 13% 14%
12% 10%
17 October 2018 3
Music Broadcast
Exhibit 6: Revenue growth accelerated by new stations (INR m) Exhibit 7: EBITDA mix from new stations to improve (INR m)
Phase II - 28 stations Phase III Batch 1 - 11 stations Phase III Batch 1 - 11 stations
Phase II - 28 stations
Combined EBITDA Margins
364
273 37%
188 35% 34% 33% 34%
31 31%
118
- 49
FY13
FY14
FY15
FY16
FY17
FY18
FY19E
FY20E
FY12
FY13
FY14
FY15
FY16
FY17
FY18
FY19E
FY20E
Source: MOSL, Company Source: MOSL, Company
Exhibit 10: Steady rise in FCF and FCF yield Exhibit 11: Return ratios to improve from FY19 (%)
ROE (%) ROCE (%) ROIC (%)
FCF (INR m) FCF Yield (%) 138%
5% 6%
4% 2%
2% 3% 23%
22%
623 815 19%
327 515 339 779 13% 13% 15%
13%
-2,224 13%
13% 11%
9% 9%
-15% 11% 13%
27%
10% 9%
FY14 FY15 FY16 FY17 FY18 FY19E FY20E
FY15 FY16 FY17 FY18 FY19E FY20E
Source: MOSL, Company Source: MOSL, Company
17 October 2018 4
Music Broadcast
Exhibit 14: Media consumption Exhibit 15: Preferred medium for radio consumption
Average Frequency (Days Per Week) Preferred Medium for Radio Consumption
Average Minutes/Day (Delhi, Mumbai & Bangalore)
78 3% 6%
54 55 Home
19%
30
Car
Work
5.1 3.8 3.8 4.7 72% Other
58%
52% 52%
36%
30%
22% 23% 22% 24%
21% 22%
15% 27% 13%
12% 20% 17% 11%
13% 20% 7% 5% 4%
12% 3% 2% 0%
1%
0%
7AM-9AM 9AM-11AM 11AM-1PM 1PM-3PM 3PM-5PM 5PM-7PM 7PM-9PM 9PM-11PM 11PM-1AM 1 AM
Onwards
Source: Nielsen Research
17 October 2018 5
Music Broadcast
898
761 762
699
350
250 281 246.5
188.5 185.5 163.5 117.5
130 85.5 80 124 131.5
40 33 32
Source: Company
17 October 2018 6
Music Broadcast
91.7% 90.8%
89.9% 90.1%
89.8%
89.4%
Source: RAJAR
49%
40%
27% 25% 23%
14%
Radio(over the air) Friends/Relatives Online Music Services Social Media Online Radio Satellite Radio
Note: Based on a survey of 3000 U.S. consumers aged 13+ conducted in August 2017 Source: Nielsen Music 360
Exhibit 22: Using radio while in the car Exhibit 23: US ad spending trends
11.6%
Drivers using AM/FM
18%
Radio while in the car 5.9%
3.8% 4.6%
Source: Edison Research/ Tricon Digital Source: Standard Media Index, MarketingCharts.com
Note: *Standard Media Index data is sourced directly from advertising agencies' billing systems, and is then aggregated to show the combined
picture of direct agency ad spend across different types of media. It includes all media bookings from the participating agency groups and
covers up to 80% of total agency spend across 15 global markets.
17 October 2018 7
Music Broadcast
17 October 2018 8
Music Broadcast
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Music Broadcast
NOTES
17 October 2018 10
Music Broadcast
17 October 2018 11
Music Broadcast
The associates of MOSL has not received any compensation or other benefits from third party in connection with the research report
Above disclosures include beneficial holdings lying in demat account of MOSL which are opened for proprietary investments only. While calculating beneficial holdings, It does not
consider demat accounts which are opened in name of MOSL for other purposes (i.e holding client securities, collaterals, error trades etc.). MOSL also earns DP income from clients
which are not considered in above disclosures.
Analyst Certification
The views expressed in this research report accurately reflect the personal views of the analyst(s) about the subject securities or issues, and no part of the compensation of the
research analyst(s) was, is, or will be directly or indirectly related to the specific recommendations and views expressed by research analyst(s) in this report.
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This report has been prepared by MOSL and is meant for sole use by the recipient and not for circulation. The report and information contained herein is strictly confidential and may
not be altered in any way, transmitted to, copied or distributed, in part or in whole, to any other person or to the media or reproduced in any form, without prior written consent of
MOSL. The report is based on the facts, figures and information that are considered true, correct, reliable and accurate. The intent of this report is not recommendatory in nature. The
information is obtained from publicly available media or other sources believed to be reliable. Such information has not been independently verified and no guaranty, representation
of warranty, express or implied, is made as to its accuracy, completeness or correctness. All such information and opinions are subject to change without notice. The report is
prepared solely for informational purpose and does not constitute an offer document or solicitation of offer to buy or sell or subscribe for securities or other financial instruments for
the clients. Though disseminated to all the customers simultaneously, not all customers may receive this report at the same time. MOSL will not treat recipients as customers by
virtue of their receiving this report.
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The report and information contained herein is strictly confidential and meant solely for the selected recipient and may not be altered in any way, transmitted to, copied or distributed,
in part or in whole, to any other person or to the media or reproduced in any form, without prior written consent. This report and information herein is solely for informational purpose
and may not be used or considered as an offer document or solicitation of offer to buy or sell or subscribe for securities or other financial instruments. Nothing in this report
constitutes investment, legal, accounting and tax advice or a representation that any investment or strategy is suitable or appropriate to your specific circumstances. The securities
discussed and opinions expressed in this report may not be suitable for all investors, who must make their own investment decisions, based on their own investment objectives,
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should make such investigations as it deems necessary to arrive at an independent evaluation of an investment in the securities of companies referred to in this document (including
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contained in this document. The Disclosures of Interest Statement incorporated in this document is provided solely to enhance the transparency and should not be treated as
endorsement of the views expressed in the report. This information is subject to change without any prior notice. The Company reserves the right to make modifications and
alternations to this statement as may be required from time to time without any prior approval. MOSL, its associates, their directors and the employees may from time to time, effect
or have effected an own account transaction in, or deal as principal or agent in or for the securities mentioned in this document. They may perform or seek to perform investment
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Registered Office Address: Motilal Oswal Tower, Rahimtullah Sayani Road, Opposite Parel ST Depot, Prabhadevi, Mumbai-400025; Tel No.: 022-3980 4263; www.motilaloswal.com.
Correspondence Address: Palm Spring Centre, 2nd Floor, Palm Court Complex, New Link Road, Malad (West), Mumbai- 400 064. Tel No: 022 3080 1000. Compliance Officer:
Neeraj Agarwal, Email Id: na@motilaloswal.com, Contact No.:022-38281085.
Registration details: MOSL: SEBI Registration: INZ000158836 (BSE/NSE/MCX/NCDEX); CDSL: IN-DP-16-2015; NSDL: IN-DP-NSDL-152-2000; Research Analyst: INH000000412.
AMFI: ARN 17397. Investment Adviser: INA000007100. Motilal Oswal Asset Management Company Ltd. (MOAMC): PMS (Registration No.: INP000000670) offers PMS and Mutual
Funds products. Motilal Oswal Wealth Management Ltd. (MOWML): PMS (Registration No.: INP000004409) offers wealth management solutions. *Motilal Oswal Securities Ltd. is
a distributor of Mutual Funds, PMS, Fixed Deposit, Bond, NCDs, Insurance and IPO products. *Motilal Oswal Real Estate Investment Advisors II Pvt. Ltd. offers Real Estate
products. * Motilal Oswal Private Equity Investment Advisors Pvt. Ltd. offers Private Equity products.
* MOSL has been amalgamated with Motilal Oswal Financial Services Limited (MOFSL) w.e.f August 21, 2018 pursuant to order dated July 30, 2018 issued by Hon'ble National
Company Law Tribunal, Mumbai Bench. The existing registration no(s) of MOSL would be used until receipt of new MOFSL registration numbers.
17 October 2018 12