0.073 900.00
0.069 800.00 f(x) = 62.1879880713 exp( 0.0654374229 x )
0.007 700.00
0.018 600.00
0.081 500.00
0.022 400.00
0.003 300.00
0.027 200.00
0.064 100.00
0.009 0.00
0.040 1 3 5 7 9 11 13 15 17 19 21 23 25 27 29 31 33 35 37 39
0.168
0.167
0.278 Log(Sales) (through 2011)
0.226 8
0.212 7
0.038 f(x) = 0.0654374229x + 4.1301618633
6
0.037
5
0.033
0.026 4
0.018 3
0.011
2
0.008
0.051 1
0.063 0
0.033 1 3 5 7 9 11 13 15 17 19 21 23 25 27 29 31 33 35 37 39
0.090
0.103
0.089 Sales and Forecasts (all years)
0.075 3500.00
Estimation period Forecast
0.017 3000.00 period
2500.00
2000.00
1500.00
1000.00
Sales and Forecasts (all years)
3500.00
Forecast
3000.00 period
0.035
2500.00
0.165
2000.00
0.145
0.023 1500.00
0.093 1000.00
0.006
500.00
0.200
0.291 0.00
1 4 7 10 13 16 19 22 25 28 31 34 37 40 43 46 49 52 55 58
0.215
0.210 Sal es Forecast
0.360
0.453
0.428
0.428
0.534
0.540
0.621
0.661
Theexponential
The exponential trendtrend through
through2011
2011isis
apparenthere.
apparent here. II superimposed
superimposed an an exponential
exponential
trend curve
trend curve on
on the
the original
original time
time series
series graph
graph
and elected to show the exponential
and elected to show the exponential equation. equation.
ItItimplies
implies aaquarterly
quarterlygrowth
growthraterateof
of about
about
6.6%.
6.6%.
33 35 37 39
IfIf sales
sales are
are growing
growing exponentially,
exponentially, thenthen the the log
log
of sales
of sales isis linear
linear versus
versus time,
time, as as shown
shown here. here.
The coefficent
The coefficent of of time
time in
in this
this linear
linear fit
fit isis the
the
same as
same as the
the exponent
exponent in in the
the exponential
exponential
equation. Each
equation. Eachisisthethe growth
growth rate.rate.
33 35 37 39
This example,
This example, loosely
looselypatterned
patterned after
after Intel
Intel sales
sales
in earlier years, shows that a good thing
in earlier years, shows that a good thing can't can't
last forever.
last forever. The
The predicted
predicted exponential
exponential growth
growth
(thered
(the red line)
line) isis much
much higher
higher than
than actual
actual sales
sales
after 2011.
after 2011.
This example,
This example, loosely
looselypatterned
patterned after
after Intel
Intel sales
sales
in earlier
in earlier years,
years, shows
shows that
that aa good
goodthing
thingcan't
can't
last forever.
last forever. The
The predicted
predicted exponential
exponential growth
growth
(thered
(the red line)
line) isis much
much higher
higher than
than actual
actual sales
sales
after 2011.
after 2011.
49 52 55 58