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lecture 2 Condivvonal probability Tadependene § Condinconal prsbabiling [ Sutpere thar we ase interested in event A, Then we are gisen some parnival informer, 80g. the ever Bo has secured. How shi we make we of thie snfe.?] A Viewpecsr © RUE) Gan be epee ac propenon of & B has occured =p we ® If A alse sccurs =>) we ANB P(A score. knowing B has occured) =P CAMs eccers. knenng B hes pecured | = preperm of Ane in B Def (condineral probably) Lf pin so. then the Conclivenal probeblity thar A occurs given that B occurs vs Pane) c ee Pcare) par Rms The conditional Probability [P(ALB) promvunced "she probohiliy of A given BR”, or the prebebiling of A conditioned mm &” Poet the additional info. olvage help ty snerease the prebebiling > NOT mecessery the nfs, mag be uselies oF hare ful (om formfer Infed Suppose thar there is 4 chorea [ueshin with Gb cd Peer chores Rereally tr the comect newer, but Yom clo not km thar, Yeu cleerde te Fanelamly pick sme with equal probabslory Denete by the ourceme Then Pl the evo thar you ger correct anweer) Plweal = Ren = a Mow . suppose one guy give yr the wreng fe that §@ is not the anuser “and jou belreve thar Thar means the event thcdl occurs. Since ym weti cheese ome from Fb.c.kt Bae Re fata Gb cot) i eat) = ee (tt [Pb-cat) Th can ER (on uselre info) Flip tye cxrns as fo cam. Gew eDd Es the fmt ems = TChw. Chpy Fi = the second Oey is T = {thw Ger pes: 4 Pitle mee = = = =F dees not help te increase the Chong of & Rmkes When PCEV= WITTE) | we Say E and Fave independene”, Ty BW family has tee childven G1: Wher is the probak, thar berh are beys. Foren thee at lease one ts bey? D> [46 Ga. ba BBY lca) = PGS = pingr~ Run =e TP(B%| one bey a leacs) = IP ina | Ga U 8G UBB) = Riba (GRU BG uam) Pas 1 Pigs Ube vee Iga vbe say” > Qa. what is she probe thar beth are boys gonen thar the Srunger re bey?