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I f data is the new oil, it would be safe to say that the company which ensures data networks
deliver speedy and reliable services would be an obvious bene ciary. Sterlite Technologies is a
play on the worldwide trend of digitisation. To ensure high data with low latency (total time taken
for data transmission) is delivered, telecom companies and the government are investing heavily
to put in place infrastructure that can support this. This would drive the demand for optic ber by
an estimated three times over the next few years. The company being one of the largest ber
optics cable manufacturers has the right combination of size, scale and economics to take
advantage of these opportunities.
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Exposure to biggest consumer story: The average data usage per consumer was 0.8 (GB/month)
in FY2012 and this is expected to go up to 17 (GB/month) in FY23, which is an increase of 21
times. This is being catalysed by an almost quadrupling of internet users, an eight times increase
in devices installed and cost coming down by one-tenth.
Cheapest cost producer: The margin of Sterlite Technologies is ten percentage points higher
than its peers, as it has access to its own technology to manufacture ber optics ('preform'),
possessed only by a few.
Dominant position: Commands pole position in India (45 per cent market share) and on course
to be the third biggest player globally in ber optics industry. Eight of the top ten global telecom
companies are customers of Sterlite Technologies. It is also a key player in the government's
Bharatnet, smart cities and other strategic programs.
Pro t machine: The company has more than doubled its pro ts in the past two years and looks
set to double pro ts in the coming two years.
Well diversi ed: Revenue stream is geographically well diversi ed with exports accounting for
nearly 54 per cent of the pie. Services now account for 25 per cent of the total revenue.
Assured growth on ber: The company's ber order book are full for the next two years. This is
after incorporating the enhanced capacities. The total order book has doubled in the past one year
and as at rst quarter of scal 2019 stood at Rs. 6,034 crore, comprising Rs. 4,939 crore in ber
and Rs. 1,094 crore in the services side.
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Gunning for services. Sterlite Technologies is a major player in the government's agship
programs such as Bharatnet, smart cities, network for spectrum etc. Its services order book has
swelled to Rs 1,094 crore till date. This to be executed over the next two years.
Cementing its presence in foreign shores. Sterlite has manufacturing presence in the high
growth regions of Latin America and China. To strengthen its presence in the high-growth
European region, the company announced in July 2018 that it was acquiring 100 per cent stake in
an Italian optical ber cable manufacturer, Metallurgica Bresciana for an enterprise value of Euro
57 million. The acquisition would be earnings accretive from the start.
Superior margin pro le/entry barrier. The company earns ten percentage points higher
operating margin than its competitors. The technology to make preform (cylindrical glass rods
with ultra- ne purity) from silica ore is possessed by only 10 players in the world and Sterlite
Technologies is one among them. Using this technology, it is able to convert raw material (silicon
ore) into ber optics and cables and this helps it capture the entire value created across the chain,
unlike other domestic players who import preform from outside.
End-to-end presence across the telecom chain: Besides manufacturing ber optics and cables
(products), which it dominates, the company also offers solutions and services to the telecom
companies. It is a one-stop shop for all needs of global companies, offering it cross-selling
opportunities and revenue sustainability.
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Fiber optics here to stay: Optical ber carries a considerable amount of data over long distances
at nearly 70 per cent the speed of light and secures information to be transmitted. Being smaller,
thinner and lighter, having weather safe, resistant and lower carbon footprint properties make
them the preferred mode of transmitting data and provides assurance from getting obsolete.
Complimentary to wireless and not a competitor: Contrary to popular belief that wireless
technology substitutes the need for ber, enhanced wireless or Wi-Fi experiences is directly
dependent on the strength of the ber backbone.
Size and scale: Sterlite Technologies is a leading player in the global ber optics and cables
industry, having foothold in more than 100 countries, with 189 patents in its name and
manufacturing capabilities in the high-growth regions of China and Brazil.
Demonstrable track record of strong execution: A doubling of optic ber capacity in last ve
years, trebling of exports in three years, doubling of order book in last one year are some of the
company's achievements as of rst quarter of scal 2019. What is more impressive is that this has
been achieved while lowering debt, enhancing margins and improving return ratios.
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5G Opportunity: 5G
denotes next level of data
transmission, which would
dramatically enhance
customer experience. 5G
networks are expected to
be rolled out from 2020 and
would be a decadal
opportunity. The speed
would go up by 10 times,
devices would be able to
communicate with each
other without a lag and all
at signi cantly lower cost.
5G would provide backbone
for next generation
technology products such
as driverless cars, cloud
technology, arti cial
intelligence and smart
devices that can
communicate with each
other.
Cable count per ber to multiply: Compared to the 30 to 40 cables per ber now, 5G would
require the count to go up to 200 to 300 cables per ber.
Replacement demand: Globally 3 billion kilometre cumulative ber has been deployed so far.
About 7-8 per cent of this deployment translating into 200 million kilometres would be up for
replacement per annum.
Sterlite's one-fourth revenue is derived from services and software segment wherein it designs,
deploys and manages data network and provides software solutions to its clients. The segment
earns lower margin than ber optics, but generates higher return on capital employed owing to
meagre investment involved in xed capital. At present, the segment is focused only on India and
is experiencing a number of tailwinds.
Some of these include
• Key player in the government's agship schemes such as Bharatnet (rural broadband
connectivity)
• Firm contract to design, build and manage communications network for Indian Navy for Rs.
3,500 crore.
• Network for building world's largest intrusion proof communication network for the Indian
Army.
• Has won the third smart city race with Kakinada, AP to be designed, built and managed for over
next 6 years.
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Valuation
Sterlite Technologies trades at 35 times consolidated earnings. It has doubled its earnings in the
past two years, post the demerger of power business in FY2015. In the last ve years, revenues
have registered a CAGR of 29 per cent and operating income has grown at 44 per cent per annum
for the same period.
With ber capacity increasing by nearly two-thirds in the coming year backed by a rm three-year
contract in place, a robust order book of nearly two times FY 2018 revenue, multiple tailwinds
supporting the industry, we believe that the management's aim of doubling the net pro t in
coming two years seems plausible.
The stock is not inexpensive at the current valuation, but given the leadership position, superior
margin pro le and the size of opportunity in place, we have conviction in the story and therefore
recommend adding Sterlite Technologies in a staggered way.
Ef ciency
Sterlite Technologies on an average earns 10 percentage point higher operating margins compared
to its peers. Over the past ve years, its ROCE (return on capital employed) has registered an
increase of almost three-fold to end FY2018 at 28 per cent.
The company's revenue-mix is steadily commanding a higher proportion of services business,
which although comparatively low margin compared to the products business yields higher ROCE
on account of little investment in assets.
The cash conversion cycle, which is the time taken to convert raw material into cash, is at a
comfortable one month. The debt has been brought down to 0.7 times the equity, which is
comfortable, though likely to increase in the near term on account of increasing capex. The
conversion of cash from operations is high, thereby, lowering its reliance on external debt for
meeting the capex needs. This, however, restricts the ability to pay dividends.
Management
Sterlite Technologies is majority held by the Vedanta group, which holds 53.42 per cent stake in
the company. Anil Agarwal who is the Chairman of Vedanta group is also the Chairman of the
company and its CEO is Dr. Anand Agarwal, who has been with the company since 2003. Day-to-
day operations of the company is being run by professional managers.
Worries
Commodity risks: Copper and crude derivatives make up for a substantial part of raw material
requirements. In the event of escalation in their prices, pro tability could be adversely affected.
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Telecom operators under stress: Private Indian telecom operators account for close to 22 per
cent of total order book. However, the Indian telecom market is undergoing a major shakeout post
the launch of RJio’s services. This could severely impair the ability of telecom companies
undertake capex programs much to the detriment of players like Sterlite technologies.
Delay in government projects. With a high proportion of services order book pegged to
government schemes, any delay due to bureaucratic hurdles, procedural red-tape or change of
guard may put at risk the company's prospects.
Sensitive to the realisation rate of OF/OFC. Prices of optical ber and cables are internationally
determined by a con uence of demand and supplies. Any downside correction in ber and cable
pricing could be negative for pro tability.
Technology led disruptions. Telecom operators may begin to share the ber network with other
players. Moreover, the advent of any new technology, which is cheaper to ber and cables over the
long-term may prove to be counterproductive to company's prospects.
Disclosure:
Sachin Kumar did not own shares in Sterlite Technologies or Vedanta as on the date of publication of this report.
Independent Advisors LLP and its associates did not own shares in Sterlite Technologies or Vedanta as on the date of
publication of this report.
To view the latest stock holdings of the current Value Research Stock Advisor team, click here.
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Company/Business
Is the company's earnings before tax more than Rs 50 crore in the last 12 months?
Yes , its EBT was Rs 498 crore in the 12 months ending March 2018.
Will the company be able to scale up its business?
Yes , the manufacturing capacity is being augmented by two-third by mid-2019 to capitalise on
huge 5G and berisation opportunities that lie ahead. In addition, the services business is also
swelling, driven by Bharatnet, smart cities, network for spectrum projects. The order book of the
company is nearly double its FY18 revenue.
Does the company have recognisable brand/s truly valued by its customers?
No , the company is not directly into consumer facing business.
Does the company have high repeat customer usage?
Yes , the company dominates the ber optics cable business in India with a 45 per cent market
share and is also a leading global player with a 7 per cent market share.
Does the company have a credible moat?
Yes , the company is only one of the ten players globally and the only player in India to possess
the technology to manufacture cylindrical glass rods with ultra- ne purity ('preform'), which is
used to manufacture ber optics cable.
Is the company suf ciently robust to major regulatory or geopolitical risks?
No , the demand for company's products and services is derived from telecom industry (heavily
regulated) and government. Hence, prospects of the company are governed by the regulatory
environment.
Is the company’s business immune from easy replication by new players?
Yes , the company is the only vertically-integrated player in the optic ber industry globally, being
present from silicon (raw material for ber manufacturing) to system integration (laying
transmission network) to software solutions (for managing the network). This capability cannot be
easily replicated by new players.
Is the company's product able to withstand being easily substituted or outdated?
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Yes , optic ber is the most preferred mode of data transmission, carrying considerable amounts
of data over long distances at almost 70 per cent the speed of light. Being smaller, thinner and
lighter, having weather safe, resistant and lower carbon footprint properties make them the
preferred mode of transmitting data and provides assurance from getting obsolete. There exists no
other superior medium for data transmission.
Are the company’s customers devoid of signi cant bargaining power?
Yes , the prices of optic ber and cable are internationally set by demand and supply factors. This
precludes the customers from exercising signi cant bargaining power.
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No , the current RoE is 36.2 per cent (FY18) and the average RoE in the past ve years is also 15.5
per cent. RoCE in the latest nancial year (FY18) was at 27.8 per cent and its ve-year average was
12.9 per cent.
Was the company’s cash ow positive during the previous year and at least four out of the
last ve years?
Yes , the company’s cash ow from operations has been positive in all of the preceding ve
nancial years.
Did the company increase its revenue by 10 per cent CAGR in the last ve years?
Yes , the optic ber revenues grew at 29 per cent CAGR in the past ve years.
Is the company's debt-to-equity ratio less than 1 or is its interest coverage ratio more than
2?
Yes , the company has debt/equity ratio of 1 and interest coverage ratio of 5.8 as at March 31,
2018.
Is the company free from reliance on huge working capital for day to day affairs?
Yes , the company's sales to working capital ratio stood at 12.7 times as at March 31, 2018, which
is healthy. The cash conversion cycle is also of one month, which signals comfortable working
capital position.
Can the company run its business without relying on external funding in the next three
years?
No , the company is undergoing capex expansion wherein it needs to spend around Rs. 1,500 crore
in the next year-and-a-half. The cash ow from operations is not enough to meet the need
and, hence, external funding would be required.
Have the company’s short-term borrowings remained stable or declined (not increased by
greater than 15 per cent)?
Yes , the company has short-term borrowing of Rs. 463 crore as at March, 2018 and it came down
by 22 per cent compared to FY 17.
Valuation
Does the stock offer operating earnings yield of more than risk-free return on its
enterprise value?
No , the operating earnings yield is 4.7 per cent, which is less than the prevailing risk-free return
(SBI's 10-year FD rate of 6.85 per cent).
Is the stock’s P/E less than its ve or 10-year median level?
No , the current P/E is 34.47x, higher than its ve-year median level of 23.1x.
Is the stock’s P/B value less than its ve or 10-year average level?
No , the current P/B is 10.59x, higher than its ve-year median level of 3.26x.
Summary
Is it a solid business with an able management and a great balance sheet?
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Yes , Sterlite Technologies has a scalable business model such that it can expand capacity and
handle increased demand ef ciently at much lower capital cost without disruption to its
operations. It has under control leverage, comfortable working capital, highest operating margin
in the industry and superior ROE and ROCE in the region of 30 per cent. The management is deep-
rooted in ber optics space.
Does the company believe in taking care the interests of all the stakeholders — customers,
employees, shareholders?
Yes , we have no information to suggest otherwise.
Do you want to know more about this company? Are you willing to spend more time
digging out information about it?
Yes , the next big thing driving demand for optic ber industry is 5G and it would be interesting to
witness how the private enterprises and governments build the infrastructure ready to tackle the
huge data explosion. Management's ambition of trebling net income in next two years would also
need to be closely tracked.
Disclosure:
Sachin Kumar did not own shares in Sterlite Technologies as on the date of publication of this report.
Independent Advisors LLP and its associates did not own shares in Sterlite Technologies as on the date of
publication of this report.
To view the latest stock holdings of the current Value Research Stock Advisor team, click here.
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• Government's agship programs such as Bharatnet, network for spectrum, smart cities mission
etc. augurs well for services business.
• In case there is any correction in price of optic ber and cables internationally.
• The company is undertaking a major capex program, that would increase ber capacity by two-
thirds in next one year. If there is any delay in execution, we would turn skeptical.
• Delay in government tendering process and award of projects would raise red ags.
Disclosure:
Sachin Kumar did not own shares in Sterlite Technologies as on the date of publication of this report.
Independent Advisors LLP and its associates did not own shares in Sterlite Technologies as on the date of
publication of this report.
To view the latest stock holdings of the current Value Research Stock Advisor team, click here.
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Snapshot
Detailed Quotes
LAST 1 DAY PREV
EXCHANGE & TIME OPEN VOLUME 1-DAY RANGE
PRICE CHANGE (%) CLOSE
NSE Aug 16, 15:54 361.10 -0.47 359.30 362.80 6,32,222 358.95 - 366.60
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Price Graph
+100%
0%
D
-10%
Oct-17 Dec-17 Feb-18 Apr-18 Jun-18 Aug-18
© Value Research
Stock Performance
Trailing (%) Annual (%)
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Essential Checks
Altman Z-Score 8.71 Piotroski F-Score 8 Modi ed C-Score 2
Is there a threat to this How well has this company Can creative accounting be
company's solvency in the done in the past one year? detected through the nancial
future? numbers?
Not Likely Above Average No
8.71 8 2
Valuation 5 Year
Price to Earnings Price to Book Earnings Yield 4.50%
36.73 11.29 EBIT/Enterprise value
PEG 0.51
0.00 23.10 60.70 0.61 3.29 15.24
Min Median Max Min Median Max
Price/ Earnings to
growth ratio
Key Ratios
10
3k
7.5
2k 5
2.5
1k
0
0 -2.5
Mar-15 Mar-16 Mar-17 Mar-18 Jun-18* Mar-15 Mar-16 Mar-17 Mar-18 Jun-18*
© Value Research © Value Research
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40
750
30
20 500
10
250
0
-10 0
Mar-15 Mar-16 Mar-17 Mar-18 Jun-18* Mar-14 Mar-15 Mar-16 Mar-17 Mar-18
© Value Research © Value Research
*TTM (Trailing Twelve Months) data based on income statement of last 4 quarters and interim half yearly
balance sheet.
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Financials
Annual Consolidated
Income Statement R Cr
Increase/Decrease in
-- 14.12 -107.15 -10.90 -34.32 -21.53
Stock
Other Manufacturing
-- 206.03 199.79 174.85 203.97 181.49
Expenses
General and
-- 151.43 132.92 59.75 55.09 45.94
Administration Expenses
PBT & Exceptional Items 592.83 498.20 260.20 224.98 0.11 -15.21
Exceptional Items -- -- -- -- -- --
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Liabilities R Cr
Deferred Tax/Payment
22.16 22.16 -- 28.10 35.46 83.43
Liabilities
Assets R Cr
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Other Non Current Assets 536.69 5.16 2.24 4.89 25.57 7.68
Cash ow R Cr
Changes In working
-- 20.38 42.71 -216.71 -70.22 -16.06
Capital
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Ratios
Financials
Adjusted Book Value (Rs) 31.96 28.78 21.60 18.61 27.44 28.15
Dividend per Share (Rs) 0.55 2.00 1.25 1.00 0.60 0.30
Cash Flow per Share (Rs) -- 18.24 12.26 5.43 9.96 6.69
Pro tability
Growth
Net Pro t Growth (%) 73.65 65.53 38.02 4,563.41 90.94 -261.44
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Solvency
Short term debt to equity 0.39 39.37 67.15 46.94 41.57 59.36
Operating Ef ciency
Valuation
Market Cap (Rs Cr) 14,487.78 12,521.22 5,012.60 3,580.51 2,159.39 911.65
*TTM (Trailing Twelve Months) data based on income statement of last 4 quarters and interim half yearly balance
sheet.
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Annual Standalone
Income Statement R Cr
Other Manufacturing
-- 242.58 212.02 209.01 204.81 177.91
Expenses
General and
-- 134.02 123.45 87.68 38.21 35.67
Administration Expenses
PBT & Exceptional Items 458.22 367.24 182.27 247.61 99.02 73.08
Exceptional Items -- -- -- -- -- --
Liabilities R Cr
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Minority Interest -- -- -- -- -- --
Deferred Tax/Payment
30.21 30.21 3.73 43.26 49.58 86.64
Liabilities
Assets R Cr
Other Non Current Assets 331.27 5.14 7.29 2.63 0.42 1.80
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Cash ow R Cr
Changes In working
-- 10.88 26.46 -278.59 -81.60 -4.44
Capital
Ratios
Financials
Adjusted Book Value (Rs) 28.72 26.15 21.38 22.14 31.40 30.90
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Dividend per Share (Rs) 0.55 2.00 1.25 1.00 0.60 0.30
Cash Flow per Share (Rs) -- 14.91 10.54 3.25 6.48 6.67
Pro tability
Growth
Net Pro t Growth (%) 89.57 63.33 -14.05 115.36 67.81 5.77
Solvency
Short term debt to equity 0.43 43.25 67.58 37.99 45.37 45.94
Operating Ef ciency
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Valuation
*TTM (Trailing Twelve Months) data based on income statement of last 4 quarters and interim half yearly balance
sheet.
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Quarterly Consolidated
Income R Cr
Exceptional Items -- -- -- -- -- --
Ratios R Cr
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Quarterly Standalone
Income R Cr
Exceptional Items -- -- -- -- -- --
Ratios R Cr
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Peers
4k
3k
2k
1k
0
Mar-14 Mar-15 Mar-16 Mar-17 Mar-18
© Value Research
Peer Comparison
MARKET NET NET
REVENUE ROE PRICE TO PRICE TO
COMPANY NAME CAP PROFIT MARGIN
(R CR.)
(R CR.)
(R CR.) (%)
(%) EARNINGS BOOK
Astra Microwave Products 828 364 64.51 16.90 13.47 12.83 1.62
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Ownership
Shareholding Pattern
Jun-18
Mar-18
Dec-17
Sep-17
Jun-17
0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 100
© Value Research
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Aditya Birla Sun Life Mutual Fund 1.446 0.428 0.556 0.429 0.707
Insider Trades
TRANSACTION NO. OF PRICE VALUE
DATE PERSON BUY / SELL
TYPE SHARES (R) (RLAKHS)
13-Feb-
Abhishek Bhadauria Buy Market 250 355.60 0.89
2018
13-Feb-
Asha Bhadauria Buy Market 250 355.60 0.89
2018
13-Feb-
Pravin Agarwal Sell Market 53,250 355.60 189.36
2018
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