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DIPLOMAT

In a developing country like Pakistan, a reliable, uninterrupted, and affordable energy


supply is a fundamental precondition for reducing poverty, encouraging investment,
and boosting economic growth. Among other challenges, the newly elected Pakistan
Tehreek-e-Insaf government under the leadership of Imran Khan inherits a very
stagnant energy sector. Despite broad access to electricity (99 percent of the
population had access to electricity in 2016, compared to 59 percent of the population in
1990), the country experiences massive blackouts (load shedding of 6-8 hours a day for
households and 1-2 hours a day for the industry). Because of poor energy management,
Pakistan’s energy resources have been used inefficiently for decades. As a result, the
nation faces a serious energy crisis that has often stymied manufacturing and the service
sector and disrupted power supplies in communities and households across the nation.
According to a survey by the World Bank, 66.7 percent of the businesses in Pakistan cite
electricity shortages as a more significant obstacle to business than corruption (11.7
percent) and crime/terrorism (5.5 percent). In light of these factors, there is an urgent
need to innovate in the energy sector of the country.

Fortunately, Pakistan has a high renewable energy potential, which has been elaborated
in many studies on Pakistan. A recent report published by USAID attests to Pakistan’s
energy potential, stating that it can potentially produce 100,000 MW from solar energy
alone. Despite the potential, Pakistan remains “powerless” when it comes to adequately
powering lights for its homes, machinery for its factories, and stoves for its kitchens.
Data from many sources, including the Ministry of Water & Power and Pakistan
Economic Surveys, over the past five years show that Pakistan has been facing an
average shortfall of between 4,000-5,000 MW.

This acute energy crisis is a result of flawed energy policies pursued for decades, the
high cost of generation, and aging and inadequate transmission, among other causes. In
addition to transmission losses and distribution thefts, an entrenched bureaucratic
culture marked by poor organization, planning, and project implementation among
Pakistan’s power operating companies only compounds the problem.

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Power shortages are also rooted in Pakistan’s irrational and increasingly unaffordable
energy mix: 64 percent thermal, 30 hydropower, and 6 percent nuclear. A high reliance
on thermal power plants (which in turn are run by natural gas, oil, or coal) and
hydropower seldom assure a continuous flow of power. Heavy dependence on oil-based
energy makes power high-priced. The prevailing energy crisis is costly to the economy in
the form of huge subsidies and high circular debts. Politicians and policymakers in
Pakistan have made little real attempt to diversify the nation’s energy supplies and to
shift dependence form expensive and imported oil toward potentially cheaper and
cleaner resources available in the country (Pakistan’s dependence on oil imports is 24
percent, compared to India’s 18 percent and Bangladesh’s 21 percent). Pakistan’s
stubborn reliance on fossil fuels continued even after the oil shocks of 1973 and 1979.
The misguided energy mix also exacerbates the nation’s already serious environmental
problems, which manifests itself in poor air quality and unsafe drinking water. Pakistan
ranked a dismal 148th out of 175 countries, according to Yale and Columbia University’s
Environmental Performance Index.

One solution to Pakistan’s energy crisis (and interrelated environmental deterioration)


is to provide incentives for the development of distributed energy resources, i.e.,
encourage a shift toward renewable energy resources such as solar, wind, and biogas.
Fortunately, Pakistan is endowed with renewable energy resources. It not only has
potentially bountiful supplies of solar energy but also could tap possible sources of wind
power, especially along the coastal areas of the Arabian Sea. The prospects for
renewable energy in Pakistan are heartening. Energy experts estimate that Pakistan has
a total renewable energy potential of about 167.7 GW, more than enough to meet the
nation’s total demand for electricity.

Better late than never, Pakistan has started to acknowledge its renewable energy
potential as evidenced by the construction of Quaid-e-Azam Solar Park, with a
nameplate capacity of 1,000 MW. There is a need for more additional steps beyond the
Solar Park. In fact, all these steps should be part of a multipronged “energy
productivity” policy. By encouraging energy conservation (efficiency), on the one hand,
and facilitating a move toward clean renewables, on the other, the productivity policy
will not only enhance energy security but also improve the environment.

Energy Efficiency vs. Energy Productivity

Energy efficiency (doing more tasks with less energy, as defined by Berkeley physicist
Richard Muller) is “cheaper than cheap.” It doesn’t cost much. A McKinsey & Company
report finds that savings made from energy conservation and efficiency would be
enough to pay for projects such as expanding wind from energy production and
installing solar panels.

In general, discussions about energy efficiency often fixate on its ability to lower energy
consumption, reduce expenditures, and curtail greenhouse gas emissions. It is worth
exploring if this mantra would work in developing Pakistan.

Like any emerging economy, Pakistan focuses on growth and poverty alleviation, and
the additional goods and services needed to produce these gains. More business
activities, infrastructure, housing, education, and health services require more energy
consumption. Paradoxically, the very idea of energy efficiency remains unappreciated,
in part, by a perception that it is a tool designed to reduce rather than expand
consumption and production. Since the focus in Pakistan remains on growth, which the
nation views as central to its future good, energy efficiency is dismissed as shorthand for
cutting down on growth.

In fact, presenting energy efficiency as “doing more with less,” as is the case in
developed countries, tends to get lost in translation in countries such as Pakistan. Thus,
a change in the energy efficiency paradigm is needed to better promote energy efficiency
in a way that links such efforts to improved living standards and increased prosperity. A
more inclusive alternative narrative such as energy productivity should be advocated —
that is, producing more goods and services with the same energy (equivalently, “doing
more with the same”). As opposed to the traditional energy efficiency paradigm focusing
solely on fewer inputs (“more with less”), energy productivity focuses on generating
more outputs with the same inputs.

Beyond the reframing of energy efficiency as a rhetorical concept, there is a need for
developing a sound and thoughtful energy productivity policy framework. Such a policy
framework would inculcate renewable energy as a significant aspect of energy
productivity policy. In the process, it would ameliorate energy security, address
environmental degradation, stimulate economic growth, and, last but not least, mitigate
public worries.

However, the energy productivity policy and its subsequent implementation cannot be
viewed in a vacuum. Cautious deliberations by concerned institutions must take place to
advance the tactical and strategic goals that are sought. In this regard, the government
of Pakistan must play a prominent role not only to ensure political stability and
institutional revamp but also to guarantee regional peace and security.

Aside from the distinct challenges of financing “sunk” and “fixed” costs amid the historic
debts and chronic losses, another significant constraint is the lack of appropriate
technology in the implementation of energy productivity policy. Pakistan needs to stay
abreast of high technology to harness its renewable energy resources and materialize its
energy efficiency goals. There are studies that talk about technological impoverishment
of Pakistan. Technological penury is one prime reason why Pakistan has not been able to
capitalize on its high abundance of renewable energy potential. The lack of technological
knowhow also helps to explain why non-hydro renewables currently account for less
than 4 percent (roughly 900 MW) of total installed electricity capacity against the
medium-term plan of having a minimum capacity of 9,700 MW by 2030. Given this, the
role of technology transfer in developing renewables and adopting energy conservation
is worth exploring.

To sum it up, I promote an alternative approach of energy productivity policy that not
only redefines energy efficiency, but also includes it along with an emphasis on
renewable sources to address energy crises in Pakistan. Concerned ministries would
have to be cognizant of the conditions in the energy productivity policy that would
ameliorate power blackouts. For successful implementation of the policy, the
government would have to ensure that regulatory agencies coordinate their efforts with
power companies to improve energy distribution, generation, and transmission.
Undoubtedly, the government would show its firm resolve in promoting energy
productivity reforms and eliminating constraints to effective energy productivity policy
implementation. Only then the nation will witness an “energized” homeland, healthy
environment, improved economy, and, ultimately a better quality of life for all citizens.

Muhammad Salar Khan is a Ph.D. Public Policy candidate and graduate research
assistant at Schar Scool of Policy & Government, George Mason University. He tweets
at @salarppolicy
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The power sector crisis is going to be a challenge for the new government to conquer. It
has plagued Pakistan for years despite promises of overcoming it by successive
governments. An act which should be commended is the ability of the last government
to overcome the energy deficit and show an increase in the amount of energy produced.
However, the problem was that they could not sustain that production and that is a
problem the new government will inherit. Work needs to be done to improve the
transmission lines which cannot carry the newly added currents into the system.

READ MORE: Asia Bibi’s lawyer says UN, EU made him leave Pakistan
The capacity payments at this point amount to Rs490 billion at the moment. Those
payments need to be streamlined because as they are increasing, so is the electricity
tariff for the consumers. This means that increased generation has increased the per
unit costs and the lack of payments to private power companies is increasing the
burden on the taxpayers. There is also a significant lag at the Ministry of Energy’s end.
The solar division has not facilitated the adoption of the wind and solar energy
alternates despite the lowering of price in the last three years. This resulted in a great
tariff for the consumers but the lack of prioritisation prevents us from taking advantage.
Same is the case with setting up small hydropower plants. At this point, Pakistan cannot
afford such lags and those appointed for these roles need to be as vigilant as possible.

If bodies such as the K-electric are underproducing than their actual capacity, they need
to be held accountable. At the same time, the role of the provincial bodies is very
important in the process but if there are reports of mismanagement, that needs to be
looked into. The new government will be under a lot of fire if the country sees another
five years without a necessity as basic as the electricity. This not only affects
businesses but also pushes the average Pakistani to cope up with extreme weathers,
even more so because of the lack of attention given to environmental concerns.

NEPRA has alluded that the energy policy and plan now curtails the independence to
take any concrete action because any action of the body is appealable in court and they
have to put up with bureaucratic red tape to actually be able to implement a policy.
These are grave challenges and ones that must be addressed to put the country on the
path of surplus energy production.
3

Abstract— In this paper we have discussed the important


facts that causes the shortfall in the supply of electrical
energy in Pakistan. The basic causes of the decrease in
supply are discussed. In this paper we have also discussed
a review about the energy potential in Pakistan. We have
also discussed that how much renewable energy is
important to overcome the shortfall and construction of
small hydro- electric power station on the run of river.
Short tenure solution to overcome line losses, Improving
power generating capacity, medium tenure solution of
installment of renewable energy and long tenure solutions
of replacing thermal power fuel, the myth of Thar coal,
Stand-alone power projects and also to dismantle the
national grid to overcome these crisis are also given. This
paper will be very helpful for minimizing the shortfall of
electricity in Pakistan.
Key Term-- Energy Crisis, Renewable Energy, Energy
Sources
1. INTRODUCTION
Electricity is the main and important need for the
development of society. Every individual needs
energy to fulfill their basic necessity. It is the basic
requirement for an adequate standard of living. As
there is increase in population the economy of the
country also increases and hence the need of
electricity demand also increase and if this demand
cannot met the supply then it take a shape of crisis.
Pakistan is also at that type of region where the
supply cannot meet the demand and hence it faces a
huge crisis of electricity. The crisis takes a shape of
devil or torment in summer season. The duration of
Load shedding become increased to 20 hours in rural
areas while 8 to 10 hours in urban areas. Large
numbers of rural areas are disconnected from the main
grid to prevent overloading the generation stations.
The Chairman WAPDA (WATER AND POWER
DEVELOPMENT AUTORITY) a year ago admitted
that we are fail to meet the current demand. It is
shameful and also surprising that such intellectual
person took a plenty of time to discover this problem.
We have neglected the development of power
sectors and that’s the evidence that we took 25 years
to construct a dam of GHAZI BAROTHA after the
construction of TERBELA dam. A number of thermal
power plants in public and private sectors were built
to meet the growing demand in mid Nineties. [1]
We take control one evil but faced many more. As
despite of being to overcome the crisis of energy the
government take such heavy bills from consumers i.e.
either domestic or commercial users that they became
unbearable to pay. As a result industries became
closed and national economy even reached
bankruptcy, While WAPDA still paying the IPPs
(Independent Power Producers) a billion of dollars.
In Pakistan 40 % people have no access to
electricity. All this is happening in such a country
where there is abundant of water resources, vast
reserves of coal and gas and also a lot of power of
renewable energy. If these resources are properly used
it can meet our requirements for years. [2]
Power system basically consists of three major
parts:
If we talk of the technical side of the causes of the
shortfall of electrical energy in Pakistan these are:
smaller power.
over aged.
the heavy load.
insufficient. [3]
And if we talk about the management side of the
causes of the crisis these are:
generating stations in time.
& grid stations installed.
not fully exploited.
2. CURRENT POSITION OF CATASTROPHES
Overall generation of electricity is shown in Table
1 and also shown in figure 1[10] and the peak
demands of Pakistan are presented in Table 2 and
shown in figure 2. A prediction of demand and
generation is shown in Table 3 and shown in figure
3.1 and figure 3.2. A suspicious examination of the
tables 2 and 3 clearly shows that although Pakistan’s
installed generating capacity will increase, the
shortfall will also increase [4] [9]. The government
must take steps to overcome these crises before it’s
too late.

3.1 SHORT TENURE SOLUTION


3.1.1 Improving Power generating capability
WAPDA and IPPs Thermal power plants are
running 50 % of plant factor, unfortunately of their
total plant capacity. It means that only 50 % of the
total power is in workable condition. The plant factors
of thermal power plants are about 75 to 80 %
worldwide. So it means that if the government works
on this side we add up to 20 to 30 % of power in our
system. This is a lot of thing for a country like
Pakistan to save up to that percentage because it will
minimize the present shortage to substantial extent. In
place of setting up new power plant if the government
improve the existing power plants it will be far better.
[5]
3.1.2 Line losses mechanism
The second important thing is to minimize the line
losses and it can be done such that the government
should establish a team including the police force. The
task of this team will be to shutting down the markets
and wedding halls which will open till late night
because a lot of energy is misused in the high
resistance lights which they use in late hours. The
second task of this force is to catch those peoples
which are including in the theft of electricity. If
government reduce these things so we can save up to
10 % which is almost 300 MW of energy. Also the
which have the benefits of using free electricity, they
misuse electricity and in spite of this benefit the
government give them credit in their salary. [4]
3.2 MEDIUM TENURE SOLUTIONS
Pakistan is situated on such a blessed region where
there are four seasons and a lot of potential of
renewable energy. The government should take steps
to use alternating source of energy (renewable energy)
as the whole world take benefit from these resources
but we are still thinking on these sources. We have a
lot of availability of wind in the coastal areas of
Baluchistan and river side of Sindh. We have
abundant of solar energy all over the country and
especially in the hot climate areas such as Thal, Thar,
Cholistan etc. If these renewable energy are used
correctly we can reduce the supply gap.
3.2.1 Wind Energy
The total generation of electricity from wind is 30,000
MW all over the world. The contribution of the
countries in wind energy is shown as follows:
The other countries also make remarkable work in this
source of renewable energy. These countries include
France, United Kingdom, China, Italy and Brazil. [6]
So it means that wind power is the fastest growing
energy all over the world, so if Pakistan’s
Government pay in this sector we can get rid of the
energy crisis and the consumers get energy in a very
low cost.
3.2.2 Solar Energy
Pakistan is situated within 61-75.60 degrees east on
Longitudinal and 23-37 degrees north on latitude.
Pakistan is a dry climate with less amount of rainfall
country. 60 % of the total land is mountainous while
40 % is flat and graduated surface. Such geography of
the land makes it very suitable for solar energy
utilization. [7]
In Pakistan very large population in rural areas do not
have the electricity facility and they are not connected
in an easy way with the national grid because they are
either too remote or sometimes have a very low
population so if we install solar PV in those areas it
will be less expensive and also decrease a lot of load
on the National grid. We should use the solar energy
in public Parks, road lights and also on local street
lights because it can add that extra energy which is
used in Public Parks, road lights and street lights to
the National grid and decrease the gap between the
supply and demand.
3.3 LONG TENURE SOLUTION
3.3.1 Replacing thermal power fuel
The 81 % of the total electricity is produce from oil
and gas which costs about 9.4 billion dollars. It is
such a biggest cost such that it is 53 % of our total
import. Now given that our electricity are depending
on these power plant with such a large percentage so,
we cannot dismantle it and move to hydro or some
other source of energy, however we can change the
fuel because it is the only way to get rid of such an
expensive energy. We can change the fuel to Coal but
not Thar coal. Because the price of coal is stable and
not increasing in such a manner in which the oil and
gas prices is increasing. We cannot the use the Thar
coal because this problem became a myth propagated
by a few people and political parties for their personal
gain. It is because that Thar coal is highly unstable.
This makes hurdles in its transportation from one
place to another. Its gasification is also a big problem
and risk. So, by wasting time, effort and money on
this type of renewable energy the government should
focus on the import of coal from international market.
[8]
3.3.2 Stand-alone power projects
As we discussed above that about 40 % Pakistani’s
have no access to electricity. And that is because of
two reasons that either it is too remote that if we
connect it to National grid it create a lot of loss in
transmission. And second reason is that they cannot
pay bills as we see that some of the areas in the FATA
belt, Tribles and Northern areas have access to
electricity but they cannot pay bill. So, the solution is
that to construct small runoff river hydro projects
where there is availability of Water, Install Solar Pv
where there is Sunny weather and also install Wind
Power panel in areas where wind is in abundant. It
will full fill the need of electricity of those peoples
and also produce no load on national grid but the
thing is that the NEPRA (National Electric Power
Regulatory Authority) is not giving them permission.
This is totally illegal because of the 18th Amendment

4
OUTLINE:

1. Introduction
2. Pakistan’s Energy Sector
2.1 Energy Supply
2.2 Energy Consumption
3. Sources of Energy in Pakistan
3.1 Non-renewable resources (Fossil fuels)
a).Petroleum products
b). Natural Gas
c). Coal
3.2 Renewable Resources
a). Hydro power
o Current Hydropower stations
o Potential Hydropower stations
3.3 Alternative Energy Sources
a). Wind
b). Solar
c). Agricultural biomass /biodiesel
d). Tidal
3.4 Nuclear

4. Causes of Energy Crisis


4.1 Growing Energy Demand
4.2 Lack of proactive and integrated planning for production of energy
4.3 Imbalanced energy mix
4.4 Non-utilization of enormous indigenous energy resources
a). Thar Coal
b). Hydal power generation
5. Consequences of Energy Crisis
5.1 Economic Factors
5.2 Agriculture Sector
5.3 Industrial Sector
5.4 Unemployment
5.5 Social Issues
5.6 Poverty
6. Conclusion

7. Recommendation/Solutions of Energy Crisis


7.1 Judicious energy use/saving unecessary energy usage
o electricity saving devices
o Awareness campaign for energy saving
o Reduction in unnecessary transportations
o Installation of effective equipment/energy efficient in industries
o Decreasing line/transmission losses
7.2 Developing new energy resources
o Tapping indigenous resources
o Using renewable resources (water) by constructing new dams and hydro power plants
o Import of natural gas
o Utilizing alternative energy resources
 Wind power
 Biodiesel /Biomass
 Solar
 Tidal
o Enhancing civilian nuclear capacity
1. Introduction :

Energy is considered to be life line of any economy and most vital instrument of
socioeconomic development of a country. Energy is pivotal in running machinery in factories
and industrial units, for lighting our cities and powering our vehicles etc.

There has been an enormous increase in the demand of energy as a result of industrial
development and population growth, in comparison to enhancement in energy production.
Supply of energy is, therefore, far less than the actual demand, resultantly crisis has
emerged. An energy crisis can be defined as any great bottleneck (or price rise) in the
supply of energy resources to an economy.
2. Pakistan’s Energy Sector:

Pakistan’s energy infrastructure is not well developed, rather it is considered to be


underdeveloped and poorly managed. Currently the country is facing severe energy crisis.
Despite of strong economic growth and rising energy demand during past decade, no
serious efforts have been made to install new capacity of generation. Moreover, rapid
demand growth, transmission losses due to outdated infrastructure, power theft, and
seasonal reductions in the availability of hydropower have worsened the situation.
Consequently, the demand exceeds supply and hence load-shedding is a common
phenomenon through power shutdown.

2.1 Energy Supply :

During 2009-10, Energy supply and per capita availability of energy witnessed a decline of
0.64 % and 3.09 % respectively in comparison to previous year.

Pakistan needs around 15,000 to 20000 MW electricity per day, however, currently it is able
to produce about 11,500 MW per day hence there is a shortfall of about 4000 to 9000 MW
per day. This shortage is badly hampering the economic growth of the country.

2.2 Energy Consumption :

Pakistan’s energy consumption is met by mix of gas, oil, electricity, coal and LPG sources
with different level of shares. Share of gas consumption stood at 43.7 %, followed by oil
29.0 percent, electricity 15.3 percent, coal 10.4 percent and LPG 1.5 percent.

3. Sources of Energy in Pakistan:

3.1 Non-renewable resources (Fossil fuels): [Limited – Expensive]

Non renewable resources are primarily fossil fuels emanating from remains/decomposition
of animals and plants deposited deep into the earth crust and converted into oil and gas.
These resources cannot be replenished. There are three main types of fossil fuels: coal,
petroleum, natural gas and liquefied petroleum gas (LPG).
a). Petroleum products:
In 2009-10, consumption of petroleum products was 29% of total share of energy. Majority
of crude oil is imported from gulf countries to meet the demand. Power, industry and
transport sectors consume higher quantity of petroleum followed by agriculture and house
holds. Petroleum is also used in generation of electricity, which counts 64 percent of total
electricity generation (34 coming from hydro generation). Balance recoverable reserves of
crude oil in country have been estimated at 303.63 million barrels and we are extracting
approximately 24 million crude oil annually, meaning if we do not explore new wells, we will
exhaust our current crude oil reserves in 12-13 years.
b). Natural Gas:
Importance of natural gas is increasing rapidly. Average production of natural gas is
4,048.76 million cubic feet per day as against 3,986.53 million during corresponding last
year, showing an increase of 1.56 percent. Natural gas is used in general industry to
prepare consumer items, to produce cement, for manufacturing fertilizers and to generate
electricity. In form of CNG, it is used in transport sector. Share of natural gas in energy
consumption is 43.7 percent. Due to price differential between CNG and Petrol, vehicles are
using converted to CNG and approximately 2.0 million vehicles are using CNG and currently
Pakistan is the largest CNG user country in the world. Liquefied petroleum gas (LPG)
contributes around 0.7 percent to total energy supply in country and is being imported to
stop deforestation in hilly areas.
c). Coal:
Pakistan has coal reserves estimated at over 185 billion tonnes, including 175 billion tonnes
identified at Thar coalfields. Coal is primarily being used in brick kiln and cement industries
and approximately 67 percent coal is imported because indigenous coal is not considered of
good quality.

Guddu plant is largest plant thermal operated plant with a capacity of 1,650 MW, while two
largest Independent Power Plants (IPPs) in Pakistan are Kot Addu (1,600 MW) and Hubb
River (1,300 MW).

3.2 Renewable Resources : (Unlimited – sustainable – clean)

Renewable energy resources are those, which are naturally replenished and comes from
resources such as water, sunlight, wind, rain, tides, and geothermal heat.
a). Hydro power:
Hydro power is generated by using electricity generators to extract energy from moving
water. Pakistan is having rich resource of energy in hydal power, however, only 34 % of
total electricity generation is coming from hydro power. Currently we are having 6555 MW
against the potential of 41000 to 45000 MW.
Current Hydropower stations:
Tarbella Dam : 3,478 MW
Ghazi Brotha: 1450 MW
Mangla 1,000 MW
Warsak 240 MW
Chashma 184 MW
Potential Hydropower stations:

Diamer-Bhasha Dam 4500 MW


Munda Dam – Swat river in Mohamand Agency 740 MW
Kalabagh Dam 2400-3600 MW
Bunji Dam 5400 MW
Dasu Dam 3800 MW

3.3 Alternative Sources of Energy :


a). Wind:
Wind power harnesses the power of the wind to propel the blades of wind turbines. These
turbines cause the rotation of magnets, which creates electricity. Though Pakistan has
potentials of wind energy ranging from 10000 MW to 50000 MW, yet power generation
through wind is in initial stages in Pakistan and currently 06 MW has been installed in first
phase in Jhampir through a Turkish company and 50 MW will be installed shortly. More wind
power plants will be built in Jhampir, Gharo, Keti Bandar and Bin Qasim Karachi.
b). Solar :
Solar power involves using solar cells to convert sunlight into electricity, using sunlight
hitting solar thermal panels to convert sunlight to heat water or air. Pakistan has potential
of more than 100,000 MW from solar energy. Building of solar power plants is underway in
Kashmir, Punjab, Sindh and Balochistan. However, private vendors are importing panels /
solar water heaters for consumption in the market. Alternative Energy Development Board
(AEDB) is working for 20,000 solar water heaters in Gilgit Baltistan. Mobile companies have
been asked by the government to shift supply of energy to their transmission towers from
petroleum to solar energy panels.
c). Agricultural biomass /biodiesel :
Biomass production involves using garbage or other renewable resources such as
sugarcane, corn or other vegetation to generate electricity. When garbage decomposes,
methane is produced and captured in pipes and later burned to produce electricity.
Vegetation and wood can be burned directly to generate energy, like fossil fuels, or
processed to form alcohols. Brazil has one of the largest renewable energy programs from
biomass/biodiesel in the world, followed by USA. Alternative Energy Development Board
(AEDB) of Pakistan has planned to generate 10 MW of electricity from municipal waste in
Karachi followed by similar projects in twenty cities of country.
d). Tidal:

Tidal power can be extracted from Moon-gravity-powered tides by locating a water turbine
in a tidal current. The turbine can turn an electrical generator, or a gas compressor, that
can then store energy until needed. Coastal tides are a source of clean, free, renewable,
and sustainable energy.
Plans are underway in Pakistan to harness tidal energy, however, no implementation has
been made so far.
3.4 Nuclear:
Nuclear power stations use nuclear fission reaction to generate energy by the reaction of
uranium inside a nuclear reactor. Pakistan has a small nuclear power program, with 425 MW
capacity, but there are plans to increase this capacity substantially.

Since Pakistan is outside the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty, it is excluded from trade in
nuclear plant or materials, which hinders its development of civil nuclear energy. Remaining
issues in development of nuclear energy are enricment of uranium from U235 to U238,
controlling chain reaction and dumping of solid waste.
Pakistan Nuclear Power Reactors
Reactor Type MW Construction started Commercial operation
Karachi PHWR 125 1966 1972
Chashma 1 PWR 300 1993 2000
Chashma 2 PWR 300 2005 expected 2011
Total 425 MW
* Pressurized heavy water reactor (PHWR) - Canadian based reactors
** Pressurized water reactor (PWR) – Chinese based reactors
4. Causes of Energy Crisis : Pakistan’s energy crisis traces its roots to following distinct
causes :

 Growing Energy Demand

; over the years there is greater need of energy because of;


• increase in population,
• enhancement in lifestyle
• industrial and agricultural growth
• greater transportation needs

 Lack of proactive and integrated planning for production of energy:

Pakistan has had wider potentials to tap energy, however, due to lack of any
integrated/proactive planning, very less number of power producing plant were installed to
meet futuristic demands. Resultantly, over the years, the gap between energy demand and
supply drastically grew and now against demand of 20000 MW, we are having around 11500
MW.

 Imbalanced energy energy mix

Energy mix in Pakistan is quite imbalance in comparison to other countries, with greater
reliance on non-renewable resources of gas (43.7 %) and oil (29 % - majority of which is
imported). Prices of petroleum products/crude oil fluctuate and in current Afro-Arab political
crisis, the oil prices are likely to increase manifold affecting oil prices in Pakistan.

A rational energy mix planning ought to be developed giving greater dependency to


renewable (hydel power), indigenous (coal) and alternative energy resources (wind and
solar energy). Nuclear energy can

 Non-utilization of enormous indigenous energy resources:

o Thar Coal:
 Pakistan is having one of the largest coal fields in Thar, having reserves of more than 175
billion tones, which exceeds equivalent oil reserves of Saudi Arabia, Iran etc.
 In addition to power generation, this coal can be used for chemical and fertilizer
production.
 Moreover, employment provided to workforce can be instrumental in increasing GDP and
economic prosperity to many families.
o Hydal power generation :
 Pakistan has potential of hydro resources to generate 41000 to 45000 MW, however, only
6555 MW is currently being generated by this important renewable resource.
 Four large hydro power dams namely Kalabagh 3600 MW, Bhasha 4500 MW, Bunji 5400
MW and Dasu 3800 MW can be constructed to generate hydro electricity.
 Similarly, many small to medium hydro plants can be installed on rivers and canals etc.
5. Consequences of Energy Crisis :

i). Economic Factors: Energy is pivotal for running all other resources and crisis of energy
directly influences all other sectors of the economy. The economic progress is hampered by
decline in agricultural productivity as well as by halting in operations of industries. One
important factor of lower GDP and inflation of commodity prices in recent years is attributed
to shortfalls in energy supply.

ii). Agriculture Sector: Agricultural productivity of Pakistan is decreasing due to provision of


energy for running tube wells, agricultural machinery and production of fertilizers and
pesticides. Thus higher energy means higher agricultural productivity.

iii). Industrial Sector: Nearly all Industrial units are run with the energy and breakage in
energy supply is having dire consequences on industrial growth. As a result of decline in
energy supply, industrial units are not only being opened, but also the existing industrial
units are gradually closing.

iv). Unemployment: By closure of industrial units and less agricultural productivity, new
employment opportunities ceased to exist and already employed manpower is shredded by
the employers to increase their profit ratios. Thus energy crisis contributes towards
unemployment.

v). Social Issues: This factor is primarily related to the domestic usage of energy (cooking,
heating and water provision). Load shedding cause unrest and frustration amongst the
people and results in agitation against the government.

vi). Poverty: Declination in economic growth, lower agricultural productivity, unemployment


and shackling industrial growth result in increasing poverty. Currently, around forty percent
of our population is living beyond poverty line and this ratio is increasing day by day. Ample
control of energy crisis will surely yield in curbing the menace of poverty.

6. Conclusion:

Energy Crisis has, moreorless, plagued all sectors of Pakistan’s machinery ranging from
economy to industry, agriculture to social life, inflation to poverty and it is hampering
national progress in a drastic manner. Nonetheless, menace of energy crisis can be
overwhelmed by government through making effective policies and its proactive
implementation. Simultaneously, it is the responsibility of us, the people of Pakistan, to
utilize the available energy astutely and wisely to play our due role for progress of the
country.

7. Recomendations/Solutions of Energy Crisis :

Energy crisis can be curtailed by :


i). Reducing unnecessary energy use:
o Usage of electricity saving devices
o Awareness campaign for energy saving
o Reduction in unnecessary transportations by developing good public transport systems
and strengthening Pakistan railways
o Reduction in industrial uses with installation of effective equipment/ energy efficient and
with increasing efficiency of workforce (cost effective)
o Decreasing reliance on rental power projects, because instead of doing any good, they are
increasing prices of electricity.
o Decreasing line losses by using efficient power transmission cables
ii). Developing new energy resources :
o Tapping indigenous resources (Thar coal)
o Using renewable resources (water) by constructing new dams and hydro power plants
o Import of natural gas by IPI (Iran Pakistan India) and TAPI (Turkmenistan, Afghanistan,
Pakistan and India) pipelines
o Import of electricity from Tajikistan -through Pak Afghan Tajikistan transmission- and Iran
(approximately 1000 MW from each of them) pipelines
o Utilizing alternative energy resources :
 Wind power
 Biodiesel /Biomass
 Solar
 Tidal
o Enhancing civilian nuclear capacity

8. References :
 Economic Survey of Pakistan 2009-10
 Fact File : Energy Crisis in Pakistan June 2008 – Islamabad Policy Research Institute
(IPRI)
 Energy Demand in Pakistan: A Disaggregate Analysis by Muhammad Arshad Khan,
Senor Research Economist & Usman Ahmed, Staff Economist, Pakistan Institute of
Development Economics, Islamabad
 CSS Forum - CSS Examination Preparation & Civil Service of Pakistan
 Wikipedia
 energy crisis: what can we do?
 How to survive the energy crisis in Pakistan » Overseas Pakistani Friends

5
The above quote embodies a raw truth that drives economies and societies in this post-industrial
era. An era where nothing functions without electricity. Fossil fuels like oil, coal and gas plus
renewables like solar, wind, biogases, and hydel energy form part of our national energy mix that
fuels our power generation. Along with nuclear power plants, the above feature as the main
power generating sources for the country. Cheap electric power is the veritable engine of
economic growth of any country, and it is dependent on the right mix of power generation
sources with primary reliance on indigenous resources. Expensive electricity jacks up the input
costs of most of our industrial products, rendering our exports uncompetitive in the international
market; a fact poignantly obvious by our plummeting exports and dwindling industrial imprint.

Countries like Bangladesh, Nepal, and Sri Lanka have overtaken us in export volume and
industrial productivity. The above has been made possible due to bad planning, a cloyingly high
tax regime, and lack of exploitation of indigenous resources for power generation.

The lemming like suicidal tendency of an overpopulated and water scarce country in the throes
of economic insolvency is inscrutable indeed, when one views the ever increasing poverty and
declining human development indicators. A water abundant country at independence having over
5000 cubic meters per capita of water is now a water stressed country with less than 1000 cubic
meters per capita. Pakistan, which depends on gas for 50 percent of its power generation has not
been able to significantly add to its depleting natural gas resources; whose current reserve
replacement ratio is less than 26 percent. The country’s gas supply-demand has reached two
billion cubic feet per day, with no significant additions to the national natural gas infrastructure
despite the issuance of 96 gas exploration licenses and 90 finds over the last three years. The
reduction in the gas volumes by five percent per annum shall reduce our gas availability to three
billion cubic feet per day by the year 2022. Unfortunately this gas is being filled by costly
imported LNG, which as a consequence of rising oil prices, is going to prove exorbitantly costly
in the future. To bridge the power gap, the only sensible initiative by the present government, in
addition to hydel dams in collaboration with the Chinese companies, has been the initiation of
coal fired power projects based on indigenous Thar coal.
The country’s gas supply-demand has reached 2 billion cubic feet per day, with no significant
additions to the national natural gas infrastructure despite the issuance of 96 gas exploration
licenses and 90 finds over the last three years

An indication of costly power generation is given by a study conducted by the American Council
for the Renewable Energy (ACORE) according to which the costs of LNG, coal, nuclear, wind,
natural gas, and hydropower are 12-14, 5-6, 9.5, 6, 6, and 2 cents per KwH respectively. Despite
being blessed with a proven hydel potential of 41,722 megawatts, Pakistan has exploited only
6,595 megawatts so far. In case of wind power, Pakistan has been blessed with a wind corridor
with a 50,000 megawatt potential, out of which less than 2.5percent has been exploited so far. As
per the latest reports, the percentage share of the thermal power generation has gone up to 67
percent in the national energy mix. The RLNG lobby obviously managed to convince the policy
makers to elbow out solar and wind energy to the margins, albeit temporarily as the country
cannot go against the international energy trends where solar, wind, and hydropower are gaining
ground due to environmental and economic reasons. Our anachronistic policy making, which still
encourages costly LNG power generation in addition to keeping alive unproductive and costly
public sector ‘Generation Companies’, (GENCOs) makes no sense.

The real reason we are not building big dams and promoting wind and solar energy do not reside
in the realm of economic logic but political expediencies. It is time we overcame political
bulwarks in the way of large hydel projects like Kalabagh Dam. Such pointless games are
imperilling our food and energy security. The country will definitely face a water and energy
shortage in the future unless we build both small and big dams for irrigation as well as power
generation. It is time those who understood hydrology, economy, and environment took the lead
role in policy formulation to mitigate the risk of the impending water and energy crisis. A fallacy
that has been peddled by vested interests also needs to be exposed. This fallacy pertains to the
need and relevance of big dams. Visionless particularists with narrow political interests and
limited technical knowledge speak day in and day out about the irrelevance of big dams due to
large potential for small dams all over the country. Little do these visionless bigots understand
that small dams could never replace big dams, whose power generation and irrigation potential
could never be rivalled by any number of small dams.

The country badly needs dams and an efficient irrigation infrastructure capable of limiting
seepage losses, in view of impending water shortages in the near future. If India can make 43000
dams, in this very neighbourhood, what stops us from emulating them? Unfortunately it seems
we only want to match our Eastern neighbour when it comes to missiles and other weapons.
Pakistan needs to initiate the required planning measures urgently. There is an emergent need to
define a national energy vision for the next 5 to ten years. A ‘National Energy Mix’ needs to be
planned in the light of economic and environmental imperatives relying on cleaner, cheaper and
indigenously available resources. The share of costly thermal power should be minimized in the
new national energy mix, with a lion’s share going to hydropower, solar, wind, and indigenous
coal based power sources. A national power resources and infrastructure development authority
should be created, recentralising WAPDA’s powers, unhindered by pressure from the World
Bank and IMF.
The reconstituted WAPDA invested with the powers to develop electricity evacuation grid and
big dams should take the lead role in this national endeavour. WAPDA’s project development
and electricity grid development capability as the lead role player should act as a strategic
enabler for the public-private partnerships in the power sector, in addition to purely private
investments. The privatisation of DISCOs should be put on hold for the next ten years and
WAPDA empowered again to oversee their operation.

The strategic and operational synergies thus created between all elements of the national power
matrix i.e. power generation, evacuation, distribution, and maintenance should enable execution
of new and existing projects with celerity. It is time we reconstituted our national energy mix,
developed new projects relying on renewables, provided favourable conditions to private
investors, and minimized the imprint of costly imported fuels as energy sources.

Pakistan’s energy woes cannot be resolved through half-hearted and piecemeal solutions
pandering to the wishes of lobbies with axes to grind and nests to feather. Our energy woes can
only be addressed through a holistic policy architecture under a fully empowered authority
capable of implementing policy vision in near and distant time horizons. The elusive political
consensus on the big dams would need to be achieved, regardless of the political noise it
generates. Some things cannot wait to be happened; our energy jinx would have to be broken
even at the cost of national consensus in the interest of national survival.

The writer is a PhD scholar at NUST;rwjanj@hotmail.com

Published in Daily Times, April 16th 2018

6
HISTORY OF ENERGY CRISIS FROM 1947 TO 2010

THE dimensions and ramifications of the ongoing energy


crisis in Pakistan are numerousand atrocious. Taxpaying
citizens are facing up to 20 hours of load shedding, a
situationthey could have never imagined.Official reports
acknowledge that over 400,000 industrial workers have lost
their jobs andthe country’s industries are facing an annual
monetary loss of over Rs240bn — and thisis just a brief view of
the catastrophic socio-economic implications of the issue.
Evenmore alarming is the fact that the phenomenon of load
shedding appears to be beyond arrest even in a couple of
years. Violent demonstrations because of load shedding have
been taking place across the country since 2006. The current
surge in the problem is a clear indication of the dismal
scenarios that can unfurl in the future if meaningful measures
are not adopted to bring about a reasonable level of relief. It is
time for policymakers to come to terms with reality: they have
to realize that their traditional tactic of beating about the bush
by emphasizing non-issues while ignoring the real problems is
no longer an option. If they continue to do this, matters may
rapidly spiral out of control, resulting in deep chaos and
causing irreparable damage on many fronts. The first and by
far the most important step towards addressing the existing
energy crisis is the identification of its root causes. The correct
solution cannot be formulated unless the factors that created
the problem are identified. Any sincere attempt to examine
theanatomy of the energy crisis would reveal that it has not
emerged overnight. In fact, it was fostered by bankrupt
policies followed by various regimes over the last three
decades — although the greatest responsibility rests on the
shoulders of the Musharraf dispensation. The energy crisis is a
self-inflicted problem that has been allowed to reachstor my
proportions even though the country lacked neither energy
resources nor the opportunities to exploit them meaningfully.
Amongst the greatest tragedies the sector has suffered were
the lack of vision and the unwillingness to shoulder
responsibility of governments and political leaderships. An
examination of the country’s energy history shows that other
than the regimes of the ’60sand ’70s, none did justice to this
important sector. The track record of governments over the
past three decades has by and large been disappointing since
they tended to rely on makeshift arrangements instead of
working on long-term, goal-oriented projects. Even in the few
cases where farsighted policies were formulated, the resolve
to ensuretheir implementation was simply not in evidence.
Other major factors contributing to the downfall of the energy
sector include the pursuance of personal and political
interests, political interference in energy departments,
financial and administrative irregularities, corruption and
nepotism. All the dimensions of the existing energy crisis, such
as severelevels of load shedding, unaffordable electricity and
gas prices and dependence on foreign energy supplies, are the
direct consequences of these malpractices.

Although the country experienced over 100 per cent


growth in terms of installed capacity over the last two decades,
it has not been smooth sailing. Hardly any value-engineered
projects were developed over this period. Other than the
1450MW Ghazi Barotha project and a couple of nuclear power
plants, there is not much to be satisfied about. Meanwhile, the
list of blunders in terms of the dumping of essential projects
and theorchestration of unviable and counterproductive
projects is very long. The independent power producers’ (IPPs)
Programme of the 1990s, for example, could have been quite
beneficial but ultimately turned out to be counterproductive
due to issues such as the lack of transparency, excess-
generation capacity, high-tariff structures and unviable power-
generation technologies. Interestingly the World Bank, one of
the key players in the IPPs programme, has also acknowledged
the existence of issues such as the lack of transparency,
political influence in the award of contracts and excess
generation capacity. Therefore, although the IPPs brought one
of the few periods of electricity prosperity, theyended up with
grave economic implications for the Water and Power
DevelopmentAuthority (Wapda) and the country.Some of the
other crucial setbacks inflicted on the energy sector during this
periodinclude the dumping of Wapda’s power development
Programme in the 1980s, the binningof the State Engineering
Corporation’s plan to indigenize power plants in the 1990s,
barring Wapda from thermal power generation in the 1990s,
the persistent shelving of the Kalabagh dam project, the failure
to institute large new hydropower projects and
growingreliance on thermal power. This sequence of irrational
and absurd decision-making, either by incompetence or by
design, gradually put the energy sector in trouble. Ironically,
even in the midst of a devastating energy crisis, the same
mistakes are being repeated: evidence of this is the rental
power Programme that is now actively being pursued. This,
once again, is an attempt to divert attention from the real
issues and to pursue other agendas.The country’s policymakers
must learn from their mistakes before it is too late. As
thestarting point of any meaningful measure leading to a
resolution of Pakistan’s energy problems, they have to put an
end to malpractices in the system. Weaknesses
andinefficiencies have to be checked instead of wasting time
and resources in buying unviable solutions. It is time national
interests were put before petty personal and political interests,
for the change needs to go beyond mere rhetoric.

Published: Fri, 12 May 2017

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