uncertainty,
complexity and
ambiguity
Meaning
The deeper meaning of each element of
VUCA serves to enhance the strategic
significance of VUCA foresight and insight
as well as the behaviour of groups and
individuals in organizations.[4] It discusses
systemic failures[5] and behavioural
failures,[5] which are characteristic of
organisational failure.
Themes
Failure in itself is not a catastrophe, but
failure to learn from failure definitely is. It
is not enough to train leaders in core
competencies without identifying the key
factors that inhibit their using the
resilience and adaptability that are vital in
order to distinguish potential leaders from
mediocre managers. Anticipating change
as a result of VUCA is one outcome of
resilient leadership.[5] The capacity of
individuals and organizations to deal with
VUCA can be measured with a number of
engagement themes:
Volatility
Uncertainty
Uncertainty in the VUCA framework is
almost just as it sounds: when the
availability or predictability of information
in events is unknown. Uncertainty often
occurs in volatile environments that are
complex in structure involving
unanticipated interactions that are
significant in uncertainty. Uncertainty may
occur in the intention to imply causation or
correlation between the events of a social
perceiver and a target. Situations where
there is either a lack of information to
prove why a perception is in occurrence or
informational availability but lack of
causation are where uncertainty is salient
[9].
The uncertainty component of the
framework serves as a grey area and is
compensated by the use of social
categorization and/or stereotypes. Social
categorization can be described as a
collection of people that have no
interaction but tend to share similar
characteristics with one another. People
have a tendency to engage in social
categorization, especially when there is a
lack of information surrounding the event.
Literature suggests that there are default
categories that tend to be assumed in the
absence of any clear data when referring
to someone's gender or race in the
essence of a discussion [9].
Often times individuals associate the use
of general references (e.g. people, they,
them, a group) with the male gender,
meaning people = male. This instance
often occurs when there is not enough
information to clearly distinguish
someone's gender. For example, when
discussing a written piece of information
most people will assume the author is a
male. If an author’s name is not available
(lack of information) it is difficult to
determine the gender of the author
through the context of whatever was
written. People will automatically label the
author as a male without having any prior
basis of gender, placing the author in a
social category. This social categorization
happens in this example, but people will
also assume someone is a male if the
gender is not known in many other
situations as well [9].
Complexity
See also
Antifragile: Things That Gain from
Disorder (book)
Cynefin framework
Global Simplicity Index
Goldilocks process
Innovation butterfly
References
1. Stiehm, Judith Hicks and Nicholas W.
Townsend (2002). The U.S. Army War
College: Military Education in a
Democracy . Temple University Press. p. 6.
ISBN 1-56639-960-2.
2. Wolf, Daniel (2007). Prepared and
Resolved: The Strategic Agenda for
Growth, Performance and Change. dsb
Publishing. p. 115. ISBN 0-9791300-0-X.
3. "Fingertip Knowledge" (PDF). Converge
Magazine: 34. June 2007. Archived from
the original (PDF) on 2012-02-27.
Retrieved 2018-06-01.
4. Johansen, Bob (2007). Get There Early:
Sensing the Future to Compete in the
Present. San Francisco, CA: Berrett-
Koehler Publishers, Inc. pp. 51–53.
ISBN 978-1-57675-440-5.
5. Suhayl Abidi, and Manoj Joshi (2015).
The VUCA COMPANY. Mumbai, India:
Jaico Publishing House. ISBN 978-81-
8495-662-7.
6. Satish, Usha and Siegfried Streufert
(June 2006). "Strategic Management
Simulations to Prepare for VUCAD
Terrorism" . Journal of Homeland Security.
Retrieved 2008-10-29.
7. Johansen, Bob (2007). Get There Early:
Sensing the Future to Compete in the
Present. San Francisco, CA: Berrett-
Koehler Publishers, Inc. p. 68. ISBN 978-1-
57675-440-5.
8. "What is psychometrics? | Psychometric
Society" . www.psychometricsociety.org.
Retrieved 2017-07-06.
9. Bodenhausen, Galen V.; Peery, Destiny
(2009-03-01). "Social Categorization and
StereotypingIn vivo: The VUCA
Challenge" . Social and Personality
Psychology Compass. 3 (2): 133–151.
doi:10.1111/j.1751-9004.2009.00167.x .
ISSN 1751-9004 .
10. Schick, Axel; Hobson, Peter R.; Ibisch,
Pierre L. (2017-04-01). "Conservation and
sustainable development in a VUCA world:
the need for a systemic and ecosystem‐
based approach" . Ecosystem Health and
Sustainability. 3 (4).
doi:10.1002/ehs2.1267 . ISSN 2332-
8878 .
11. Vescio, Theresa K; Judd, Charles M;
Kwan, Virginia S.Y. "The crossed-
categorization hypothesis: Evidence of
reductions in the strength of
categorization, but not intergroup bias" .
Journal of Experimental Social
Psychology. 40 (4): 478–496.
doi:10.1016/j.jesp.2003.09.005 .
12. Purdie-Vaughns, Valerie; Eibach,
Richard P. (2008-09-01). "Intersectional
Invisibility: The Distinctive Advantages and
Disadvantages of Multiple Subordinate-
Group Identities" . Sex Roles. 59 (5-6):
377–391. doi:10.1007/s11199-008-9424-
4 . ISSN 0360-0025 .
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