Topik Khusus
Oleh:
, dengan:
3. DATA STABILITAS PILAR
Data yang didapatkan dari stabilitas pillar untuk yang stable, unstable, dan
failed berupa w/h, σc, σp, dan σp/ σc.
Table 1
Description of pillar stability
Pillar
Stability Observed Pillar Condition
Minor spalling, no joint opening [4]
Stable
No sign of stress induced fracturing [8]
Showing one or more of the following signs: cracking and spalling in development and
raises within the rib pillar; audible noise in the pillar; deformed drill holes; excess muck
being pulled from stopes (dilution); cracking of pillars; major displacements within the
pillar [3]
Unstable
Prominent spalling [4]
Fractures also appear on the centralparts of the pillar [6]
Corner breaking only up to fracturing in pillar walls with fracture aperture up to 10 mm
[8]
Severe spalling, pronounced opening of joints, deformation of drill holes [4]
Failed Disintegration of pillar; blocks falling out; fractures trough pillar with fracture apertures
wider than 10 mm [8]
Table 2 Table 3
Stable pillars case histories Unstable pillars case histories
UCS Pillar
(MPa) stress
No. w/h pc
c (MPa)
p
1 1.11 230 104.8 0.4557
2 1.11 230 108.3 0.4709
3 1.5 230 127.6 0.5548
4 0.31 200 64 0.32
5 0.45 100 38 0.38
6 0.48 316 99 0.3133
7 0.5 100 38 0.38
8 0.5 90 49 0.5444
9 0.55 121 69 0.5702
10 0.56 176 31 0.1761
11 0.61 316 102 0.3228
12 0.68 176 38 0.2159
13 0.68 90 41 0.4556
14 0.75 176 57 0.3239
15 0.83 100 40 0.4
16 1.2 94 56 0.5957
17 0.9 94 48 0.5106
18 0.6 94 48 0.5106
19 0.6 94 48 0.5106
UCS Pillar
(MPa) stress
No. w/h pc
c (MPa)
p
20 0.6 94 48 0.5106
21 0.76 94 50 0.5319
22 1.26 94 53 0.5638
23 1.4 94 55 0.5851
24 1 94 55 0.5851
25 0.96 94 55 0.5851
26 1.2 94 55 0.5851
27 1.6 94 58 0.617
28 1.5 94 58 0.617
29 1 94 58 0.617
30 0.5 94 58 0.617
31 1 94 59 0.6277
32 2 94 59 0.6277
33 1 94 59 0.6277
34 1 94 59 0.6277
35 1 94 59 0.6277
36 2.27 94 60 0.6383
37 0.6 94 60 0.6383
38 1.2 94 63 0.6702
39 1.2 94 54 0.5745
40 0.92 94 55 0.5851
41 1.32 94 55 0.5851
42 1.3 94 56 0.5957
43 1.4 94 63 0.6702
44 1.5 94 63 0.6702
45 0.78 240 95 0.3958
46 1.25 240 83 0.3458
47 1.25 240 100 0.4167
48 1.42 240 82 0.3417
49 1.75 240 92 0.3833
50 1 170 88.7 0.5218
51 1.02 172 93.5 0.5436
52 1.02 172 93.5 0.5436
53 1.4 172 93.5 0.5436
54 1.58 172 93.5 0.5436
55 1.08 172 93.5 0.5436
56 0.94 172 93.5 0.5436
UCS Pillar
(MPa) stress
No. w/h pc
c (MPa)
p
57 0.87 172 93.5 0.5436
58 1.29 172 93.5 0.5436
59 1 172 93.5 0.5436
60 1.48 172 105.4 0.6128
61 1.38 172 93.5 0.5436
62 1.43 172 105.4 0.6128
63 1.3 172 98.6 0.5733
64 1.33 172 91.8 0.5337
65 0.96 172 88.4 0.514
66 1.78 172 98.6 0.5733
67 1.08 172 93.5 0.5436
68 0.62 172 93.5 0.5436
Selanjutnya klik pada Statistics maka akan muncul kotak dialog seperti
dibawah ini. Kemudian pada model dipilih semuanya. Setelah dipilih semua
klik Continue.
d. Kemudian klik Ok pada kotak dialog Multinomial Logistic Regression.
Sehingga akan muncul hasil dari analisis regresi logistik multinomial.
5. HASIL
Setelah dilakukan analisis regresi logistik multinomial menggunakan SPSS
didapatkan hasil sebagai berikut.
Goodness-of-Fit
Chi-Square df Sig.
Pearson 1316,141 330 ,000
Deviance 198,540 330 1,000
Parameter Estimates
Std. 95% Confidence Interval for Exp(B)
Ya B Error Wald df Sig. Exp(B) Lower Bound Upper Bound
UNSTABLE Intercept -1,969 ,840 5,499 1 ,019
X1 -3,179 ,692 21,082 1 ,000 ,042 ,011 ,162
X2 18,488 3,570 26,814 1 ,000 106914741,724 97733,384 116958623087,9
09
FAILED Intercept -5,876 1,209 23,633 1 ,000
X1 -5,231 ,911 32,996 1 ,000 ,005 ,001 ,032
Parameter Estimates
Std. 95% Confidence Interval for Exp(B)
Ya B Error Wald df Sig. Exp(B) Lower Bound Upper Bound
X2 32,636 4,441 54,014 1 ,000 14913834227107 24758778369,10 89835794011211
6,500 9 3280,000
a. The reference category is: STABLE.
1
𝑃(𝑠𝑡𝑎𝑏𝑙𝑒) = 𝑤 𝑤 𝜎𝑝
[−5.876−5.321( )+32.636(𝜎𝑝 /𝜎𝑐 )] [−1.969−3.179( )+18.488( )]
1+ 𝑒 ℎ + 𝑒 ℎ 𝜎𝑐
𝑤 𝜎𝑝
[−1.969−3.179( )+18.488( )]
𝑒 ℎ 𝜎𝑐
𝑃(𝑢𝑛𝑠𝑡𝑎𝑏𝑙𝑒) = 𝑤 𝑤 𝜎𝑝
[−5.876−5.321( )+32.636(𝜎𝑝 /𝜎𝑐 )] [−1.969−3.179( )+18.488( )]
1+𝑒 ℎ +𝑒 ℎ 𝜎𝑐
𝑤
[−5.876−5.321( )+32.636(𝜎𝑝 /𝜎𝑐 )]
𝑒 ℎ
𝑃(𝑓𝑎𝑖𝑙𝑒𝑑) = 𝑤 𝑤 𝜎𝑝
[−5.876−5.321( )+32.636(𝜎𝑝 /𝜎𝑐 )] [−1.969−3.179( )+18.488( )]
1+𝑒 ℎ +𝑒 ℎ 𝜎𝑐
5.4 Classification
Dari hasil observed and predicted frequencies, dapat diklasifikasikan hasil
perhitungan diatas, maka berikut distribusi datanya:
Classification
Predicted
Observed STABLE UNSTABLE FAILED Percent Correct
STABLE 52 7 1 86,7%
UNSTABLE 5 31 14 62,0%
FAILED 4 6 58 85,3%
Overall Percentage 34,3% 24,7% 41,0% 79,2%
Dari 60 data yang stabil, diprediksi bahwa terdapat 52 data stabil, 7 data tidak
stabil, dan 1 data runtuh.
Dari 50 data tidak stabil, diprediksi bahwa terdapat 5 data stabil, 31 data tidak
stabil, dan 14 data runtuh.
Dari 68 data runtuh, diprediksi bahwa terdapat 4 data stabil, 6 data tidak stabil,
dan 58 data runtuh.
Sehingga dari model yang dihasilkan untuk kondisi stabil, tidak stabil, dan runtuh,
didapatkan akurasi untuk masing-masing kondisi yaitu 86,67%, 62%, dan 85,29%,
dan akurasi secara keseluruhan adalah 79,21%.
Daftar Pustaka
Najafi M, Jalali SE, Bafghi AR, Sereshki F. (2011): Prediction of the confidence
interval for stability analysis of chain pillars in coal mines. Safety Science,
49(5), 651–657.
Wattimena RK, Kramadibrata S, Sidi ID, Azizi MA. (2013): Developing coal
pillar stability chart using logistic regression. International Journal of
Rock Mechanics and Mining Sciences,58, 55–60.
Wattimena, R.K. (2014): Predicting the stability of hard rock pillars using
multinomial logistic regression. International Journal of Rock Mechanics
and Mining Sciences, 71, 33-40.