CLIMATE OUTLOOK

(OCTOBER 2018 – MARCH 2019)

Prepared by:
PAGASA-DOST
CLIMATOLOGY & AGROMETEOROLOGY DIVISION (CAD)
Climate Monitoring and Prediction Section (CLIMPS)

Updated: 26 SEPTEMBER 2018

106 th Climate Outlook Forum
2
ENSO UPDATE
RECENT ENSO CONDITIONS (Ocean)

Sea Surface Temperature Anomaly (SSTA)

Niño 4 Niño 3.4 Niño 3

Niño 1+2

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/enso_update/sstanim.shtml
Weekly Sea Surface Temperature Anomaly (SSTA) @ Niño 3.4 Region

EL NIÑO THRESHOLD

NEUTRAL

LA NIÑA THRESHOLD

Data Source: http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/data/indices/wksst8110.for

Niño Region SST
Departures (oC) Recent
Evolution

As of Sept. 24, 2018

The latest weekly SST
departures are:
Niño 4 0.4ºC
Niño 3.4 0.3ºC
Niño 3 0.2ºC
Niño 1+2 -0.1ºC
RECENT ENSO CONDITIONS (Atmosphere)
As of: 25 Sept. 2018 Southern Oscillation Index (SOI)
 The 30-day Southern
Oscillation Index (SOI) to 23
September was −6.7, and the
La Niña 90-day SOI was −4.4. The 30-
day SOI value has remained
weakly negative for around five
weeks.
Neutral
 Sustained positive values of the
SOI above +7 typically indicate
La Niña while sustained
negative values below −7
typically indicate El Niño.
Values between +7 and −7
El Niño generally indicate neutral
conditions.

Source: BOM, Australia

o Daily or weekly values of the SOI do not convey much in the way of useful
information about the current state of the climate. Daily values in particular
2018/9/28 can fluctuate markedly because of daily weather patterns, and should not be
used for climate purposes.
Date Issued: 13 Sept. 2018

LA NINA NEUTRAL EL NINO

forecast Climatology forecast Climatology forecast Climatology

ASO 2018 0% 26% 66% 47% 34% 27%

SON 2018 1% 29% 47% 39% 52% 32%
OND 2018 1% 32% 37% 33% 62% 35%
NDJ 2018 1% 35% 33% 29% 66% 36%
DJF 2019 2% 36% 31% 30% 67% 34%
JFM 2019 2% 34% 34% 38% 64% 28%
FMA 2019 2% 28% 39% 49% 59% 23%
MAM 2019 3% 23% 45% 56% 52% 21%
AMJ 2019 5% 21% 49% 58% 46% 21%
Date Issued: September 19, 2018

Purely objective ENSO Probability Forecast

Date Issued: 19 September 2018

SON OND NDJ DJF JFM FMA MAM AMJ MJJ

Average
0.56 0.73 0.8 0.81 0.78 0.8 0.79 0.78 0.68
dynamical
Average,
0.52 0.71 0.83 0.92 0.87 0.81 0.79 0.73 0.69
statistical
Ave, all
0.54 0.72 0.82 0.87 0.83 0.81 0.79 0.76 0.69
models

WEAK
PAGASA ENSO Alert System Status

 EL NIÑO WATCH (Since 5 July 2018)

 Warm ENSO-neutral conditions persisted since June 2018;
 There is a 50-55% chance of El Niño onset during the Sept-Nov 2018,
increasing to 65-70% during Dec-Feb 2018-19.
WEATHER SYSTEMS THAT MAY AFFECT THE
COUNTRY DURING THE PERIOD
(OCTOBER 2018- MARCH 2019)

Transition to NE monsoon (October onwards)

Local Thunderstorms
Easterlies

Intertropical Convergence Zone (ITCZ)

Low Pressure Areas (LPAs)
Ridge of High Pressure Area

Tail end of Cold Front

Tropical Cyclones
 CLIMATE OUTLOOK
(OCTOBER 2018– MARCH 2019 )

Note:
These forecasts were based from recent climate conditions (i.e., SST
anomalies and large – scale atmospheric circulations)
about our
Rainfall
Maps..
PERCENTAGE (%) RAINFALL CONDITION
Less than or = 40 way below normal
41 – 80 below normal
81 – 120 near normal
Greater than 120 above normal
 MONTHLY RAINFALL FORECAST
Normal (mm) October 2018
(1981-2010) Forecast (mm) % Normal

No. of provinces
likely to
experience: 0 35 48 0
 MONTHLY RAINFALL FORECAST
Normal (mm) November 2018
(1981-2010) Forecast (mm) % Normal

No. of provinces
likely to
experience: 0 34 49 0
 MONTHLY RAINFALL FORECAST
Normal (mm) December 2018
(1981-2010) Forecast (mm) % Normal

No. of provinces
likely to
experience: 0 32 50 1
 MONTHLY RAINFALL FORECAST
Normal (mm) January 2019
(1981-2010) Forecast (mm) % Normal

No. of provinces
likely to
experience: 12 41 30 0
 MONTHLY RAINFALL FORECAST
Normal (mm) February 2019
(1981-2010) Forecast (mm) % Normal

No. of provinces
likely to
experience: 18 54 11 0
 MONTHLY RAINFALL FORECAST
Normal (mm) March 2019
(1981-2010) Forecast (mm) % Normal

No. of provinces
likely to
experience: 4 23 44 12
 Monthly Rainfall
Forecast

Rainfall Condition (based

on recent conditions):
October 2018 –
March 2019
 FORECAST RAINFALL in Percent of Normal FORECAST RAINFALL in Percent of Normal
(OCTOBER 2018 - MARCH 2019) as of September 26, 2018 (OCTOBER 2018 - MARCH 2019) as of September 26, 2018
PROVINCE OCTOBER NOVEMBER DECEMBER JANUARY FEBRUARY MARCH PROVINCE OCTOBER NOVEMBER DECEMBER JANUARY FEBRUARY MARCH
CORDILLERA ADMINISTRATIVE REGION (CAR) REGION VI (WESTERN VISAYAS)
ABRA 66.2 56.2 56.9 26.9 14.2 31.7 AKLAN 80.5 81.6 81.6 73.9 46.2 90.4
BENGUET 59.9 67.6 59.6 36.6 22.2 68.6 ANTIQUE 78.6 82.0 85.3 66.6 43.9 83.0
CAPIZ 84.8 78.0 81.4 76.2 49.9 94.2
IFUGAO 69.5 76.7 65.1 47.6 43.2 80.4
GUIMARAS 80.2 75.9 83.6 74.9 57.3 86.9
KALINGA 79.2 78.9 67.8 44.7 29.3 63.5
ILOILO 79.7 78.7 83.7 76.9 53.4 92.5
APAYAO 79.7 75.6 70.5 47.2 33.4 46.4
NEGROS OCCIDENTAL 88.0 76.5 81.9 63.8 52.6 72.3
MOUNTAIN PROVINCE 73.3 75.1 64.2 42.0 33.2 68.2
REGION VII (CENTRAL VISAYAS)
REGION I NEGROS ORIENTAL 89.4 75.9 84.0 62.5 55.5 78.8
ILOCOS NORTE 64.0 58.8 64.5 26.1 11.8 20.9 BOHOL 88.7 83.6 82.6 78.3 55.4 96.4
ILOCOS SUR 64.9 56.7 53.4 21.8 12.8 35.0 CEBU 89.0 81.3 83.1 77.4 58.9 88.3
LA UNION 60.9 67.9 56.4 30.4 16.8 62.0 SIQUIJOR 89.8 77.7 85.8 67.7 55.8 90.5
PANGASINAN 65.9 69.7 54.3 21.7 12.7 53.4 REGION VIII (EASTERN VISAYAS)
REGION II BILIRAN 83.5 80.7 91.2 91.6 53.9 107.1
BATANES 96.3 91.3 120.3 92.9 69.1 105.1 EASTERN SAMAR 83.4 79.7 82.1 67.0 48.4 87.6
CAGAYAN 87.7 82.7 77.9 67.7 46.6 67.7 LEYTE 84.0 83.0 90.7 86.7 60.9 99.4
ISABELA 74.8 83.3 71.5 68.3 56.0 90.7 NORTHERN SAMAR 86.2 82.9 88.3 85.4 53.1 94.8
NUEVA VIZCAYA 68.6 68.4 60.7 42.6 37.7 68.7 SAMAR (WESTERN SAMAR) 84.2 81.3 88.1 81.3 48.7 101.8
QUIRINO 73.9 85.4 65.2 65.6 63.5 88.0 SOUTHERN LEYTE 83.6 71.1 83.1 83.7 55.1 91.2
REGION III (CENTRAL LUZON) REGION IX (ZAMBOANGA PENINSULA)
BATAAN 65.2 84.9 75.4 28.6 16.5 50.6 ZAMBOANGA DEL NORTE 90.2 79.6 86.8 72.4 56.0 94.1
BULACAN 85.4 105.0 67.1 46.2 27.9 54.8 ZAMBOANGA DEL SUR 90.6 78.2 84.0 74.1 59.4 104.1
NUEVA ECIJA 73.5 70.4 59.1 24.9 14.4 36.6 ZAMBOANGA SIBUGAY 91.0 79.5 83.8 73.7 60.5 108.1
PAMPANGA 73.8 99.0 69.1 24.1 15.1 48.0 REGION X (NORTHERN MINDANAO)
BUKIDNON 94.2 83.7 82.8 74.1 83.0 126.4
TARLAC 67.6 82.1 63.9 18.2 8.7 45.0
CAMIGUIN 90.2 83.4 80.6 74.9 63.4 102.2
ZAMBALES 63.1 79.7 70.2 30.7 12.5 50.4
LANAO DEL NORTE 92.3 80.9 82.1 73.1 58.1 103.4
AURORA 78.4 88.4 64.9 79.6 62.1 78.7
MISAMIS OCCIDENTAL 95.8 80.0 78.8 71.2 66.2 110.7
NATIONAL CAPITAL REGION
MISAMIS ORIENTAL 95.8 80.0 78.8 71.2 66.2 110.7
METRO MANILA 70.1 94.8 78.4 57.6 42.9 67.2 REGION XI (DAVAO REGION)
REGION IV-A (CALABARZON) COMPOSTELA VALLEY 88.7 90.0 83.3 80.0 97.1 110.7
BATANGAS 67.4 81.7 77.5 61.6 48.3 61.9 DAVAO CITY 96.2 84.3 85.5 84.1 95.3 227.7
CAVITE 55.6 56.8 77.8 45.8 24.9 49.4 DAVAO DEL NORTE 90.4 89.2 83.5 79.6 97.9 143.5
LAGUNA 64.0 85.0 81.8 85.3 52.1 84.7 DAVAO DEL SUR 93.7 80.1 89.1 87.1 84.8 218.1
RIZAL 74.2 77.4 77.4 92.2 50.1 72.8 DAVAO OCCIDENTAL 87.8 80.1 90.0 85.1 76.5 150.3
QUEZON 75.3 89.4 81.9 106.1 62.9 92.2 DAVAO ORIENTAL 89.6 85.9 84.9 82.1 91.1 122.7
REGION IV-B (MIMAROPA) REGION XII (SOCCSKSARGEN)
MARINDUQUE 73.1 86.5 80.6 81.7 61.6 98.4 SOUTH COTABATO 86.7 79.2 89.9 85.0 73.0 133.3
OCCIDENTAL MINDORO 69.4 87.1 66.8 70.2 40.2 55.7 COTABATO 91.1 83.7 85.1 83.5 82.5 168.4
ORIENTAL MINDORO 72.2 86.0 70.7 76.4 50.9 72.2 SARANGANI 85.6 78.1 90.7 84.5 72.2 126.7
ROMBLON 73.2 85.9 80.7 87.3 57.0 106.2 SULTAN KUDARAT 90.5 82.6 86.6 84.7 74.7 135.8
PALAWAN 80.4 84.6 71.4 35.2 26.5 49.7 REGION XIII- CARAGA
REGION V (BICOL) AGUSAN DEL NORTE 87.0 97.8 84.6 83.5 96.3 100.2
ALBAY 78.1 85.4 85.4 81.5 56.7 108.5 AGUSAN DEL SUR 90.6 89.0 86.2 81.2 98.7 104.5
CAMARINES NORTE 90.6 88.0 77.1 94.4 64.3 105.2 DINAGAT ISLANDS 87.1 84.4 87.6 85.1 70.7 95.2
SURIGAO DEL NORTE 86.9 86.1 85.4 86.9 82.6 95.5
CAMARINES SUR 81.9 85.6 80.6 82.5 62.2 108.2
SURIGAO DEL SUR 91.1 89.2 88.0 85.7 96.2 100.7
CATANDUANES 77.2 85.7 83.0 78.7 63.6 102.3
ARMM
MASBATE 76.0 77.4 85.1 94.9 56.5 97.5
BASILAN 89.6 72.5 78.1 72.1 63.1 128.3
SORSOGON 78.7 83.5 87.3 87.4 56.3 101.9
MAGUINDANAO 87.9 83.8 84.0 84.3 75.0 125.3
LANAO DEL SUR 91.1 83.2 81.8 75.6 66.4 113.0
SULU 90.0 79.3 80.5 63.1 55.8 106.0
TAWI-TAWI 89.2 79.1 83.4 56.4 49.9 99.1
 PROVINCE OCTOBER NOVEMBER DECEMBER JANUARY FEBRUARY MARCH
CORDILLERA ADMINISTRATIVE REGION (CAR) MIN MAX MEAN MIN MAX MEAN MIN MAX MEAN MIN MAX MEAN MIN MAX MEAN MIN MAX MEAN
ABRA 99.0 220.3 167.9 18.4 171.4 114.6 20.7 65.6 42.5 0.2 15.1 4.7 0.5 8.6 4.0 1.9 18.0 9.5
BENGUET 199.7 241.8 226.4 39.2 150.9 97.7 22.6 57.6 39.7 3.0 17.2 8.1 2.7 12.7 7.2 23.9 35.1 30.3
IFUGAO 178.8 223.5 200.1 125.0 172.3 160.2 56.6 119.3 85.3 7.9 33.8 19.8 9.3 25.0 15.9 23.4 37.2 29.1
KALINGA 206.2 271.4 233.4 162.6 211.0 183.6 56.4 105.6 80.6 4.7 25.6 13.5 5.7 13.0 8.4 13.2 25.0 18.8
APAYAO 159.3 282.3 223.9 110.1 231.8 174.6 48.3 119.5 80.7 12.3 59.3 31.0 7.2 31.8 16.8 8.6 22.4 16.1
MOUNTAIN PROVINCE 234.8 214.1 149.2 187.4 169.7 48.4 109.5 74.4 0.0 27.6 11.5 6.1 18.0 10.1 17.1 28.4 22.8 0.0
REGION I
ILOCOS NORTE 63.6 197.8 124.1 12.5 152.2 65.4 14.0 97.5 43.3 0.8 45.3 15.0 0.0 23.6 7.5 0.4 20.5 7.3
ILOCOS SUR 79.9 223.9 159.9 9.2 161.8 87.8 13.3 53.1 31.6 0.1 7.0 2.9 0.0 7.4 4.3 0.1 29.2 14.4
LA UNION 182.0 232.2 204.7 34.7 99.6 78.5 19.3 32.9 25.5 1.7 6.4 3.6 2.4 6.2 4.7 21.3 31.0 26.2
PANGASINAN 142.6 203.8 161.9 33.1 107.6 69.7 12.1 45.7 21.1 0.0 12.6 1.1 0.0 7.7 2.2 5.5 25.0 14.5
REGION II
BATANES 244.7 309.2 278.7 211.6 249.0 235.4 242.1 448.5 329.8 144.5 179.1 161.2 57.8 87.1 72.7 64.3 69.6 66.8
CAGAYAN 184.1 307.0 259.8 137.8 244.9 206.2 81.4 211.0 122.6 19.9 155.2 59.3 7.0 71.1 28.6 16.4 60.5 29.1
ISABELA 170.8 331.9 228.6 159.3 436.2 213.3 99.6 226.2 149.0 23.2 189.5 82.2 9.5 109.1 46.5 23.2 125.9 57.5
NUEVA VIZCAYA 182.0 286.9 217.3 74.8 277.2 147.2 37.3 161.7 88.4 9.7 134.7 42.7 6.4 101.9 31.0 22.3 119.1 46.0
QUIRINO 181.6 335.1 264.4 166.1 484.0 281.2 112.3 233.5 165.7 41.7 180.3 112.8 31.1 115.8 78.4 41.6 136.7 93.9
REGION III (CENTRAL LUZON)
BATAAN 180.3 215.6 194.8 146.0 200.9 170.2 36.1 64.7 48.8 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 2.3 0.1 4.0 11.6 7.1
BULACAN 185.7 318.8 236.2 133.0 315.9 197.1 46.9 96.7 66.5 0.0 117.7 31.0 0.0 70.3 15.5 3.0 58.7 18.6
NUEVA ECIJA 140.9 257.4 175.5 33.7 233.8 96.5 20.1 120.1 55.1 0.0 117.0 28.0 0.0 81.2 17.1 1.1 86.0 21.9
PAMPANGA 159.4 213.9 194.4 83.8 200.2 158.3 28.3 54.3 39.7 0.0 9.8 0.3 0.0 3.3 0.1 1.7 9.8 3.9
TARLAC 150.9 197.6 173.9 64.2 144.6 115.6 17.2 36.4 23.4 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 1.1 9.1 4.3
ZAMBALES 134.6 188.6 160.3 50.6 151.0 87.2 15.3 37.4 25.0 0.0 3.2 0.5 0.0 6.7 1.1 5.1 17.2 9.7
AURORA 223.3 402.5 314.4 145.0 565.0 370.4 94.2 277.5 189.9 81.3 239.4 169.1 57.5 150.2 114.0 58.0 174.4 129.2
NATIONAL CAPITAL REGION
METRO MANILA 125.5 249.4 191.4 71.9 189.5 136.5 56.9 90.0 73.4 1.3 41.3 19.3 0.0 21.5 9.4 7.9 25.9 15.6
REGION IV-A (CALABARZON)
BATANGAS 127.9 296.7 203.6 94.6 351.2 196.3 80.5 266.6 143.6 0.0 99.6 37.0 3.6 53.2 21.0 8.6 76.1 33.0
CAVITE 115.8 183.3 136.0 61.3 156.5 87.4 64.4 102.0 82.9 0.0 24.9 6.8 0.0 10.5 3.6 5.2 16.4 8.9
LAGUNA 125.8 371.6 243.5 69.0 475.5 272.8 83.7 302.0 178.3 17.5 195.8 89.3 6.3 113.0 47.8 10.1 107.0 55.3
RIZAL 191.9 349.6 274.5 139.6 420.8 262.6 75.3 185.4 114.1 32.8 179.7 93.0 15.0 111.4 54.1 19.7 92.0 49.5
QUEZON 194.4 438.4 342.8 226.1 544.1 418.0 96.2 441.4 300.8 56.9 304.8 196.1 28.8 203.4 99.7 45.0 183.1 115.3
REGION IV-B (MIMAROPA)
MARINDUQUE 284.6 314.1 295.3 302.7 343.7 315.6 244.0 338.2 288.2 110.5 166.3 135.9 50.6 71.4 59.6 79.3 110.8 92.0
OCCIDENTAL MINDORO 152.3 257.4 222.1 89.9 262.1 198.5 58.5 145.8 103.7 0.0 59.9 29.8 3.3 32.6 18.5 4.4 50.1 29.0
ORIENTAL MINDORO 179.0 286.0 235.6 116.5 291.2 214.3 81.5 200.1 138.2 21.9 85.4 55.8 9.4 42.8 29.3 17.2 66.3 45.7
ROMBLON 222.9 282.8 244.1 212.4 297.6 249.5 140.2 235.9 187.4 46.3 110.5 84.9 23.2 49.9 37.8 48.5 84.7 68.8
PALAWAN 196.9 231.0 214.5 92.5 192.8 162.1 54.9 105.0 90.2 1.8 33.3 15.0 0.2 21.4 11.1 2.0 40.8 24.0
REGION V (BICOL)
ALBAY 256.4 296.0 273.6 340.0 413.0 392.0 346.0 424.3 395.5 197.6 256.9 222.7 94.9 126.9 114.0 152.6 213.9 185.6
CAMARINES NORTE 341.2 511.3 418.7 389.2 467.4 431.2 365.5 396.7 384.3 211.6 251.0 231.7 94.2 124.8 113.9 129.9 167.0 152.5
CAMARINES SUR 283.8 447.2 334.7 350.7 446.1 379.5 359.2 393.3 379.1 194.8 223.7 211.0 98.5 116.8 108.1 142.2 184.0 161.8
CATANDUANES 290.7 309.4 297.8 361.7 391.2 380.4 364.4 394.3 383.6 201.3 219.2 209.4 96.3 107.1 100.5 150.0 161.7 152.4
MASBATE 161.1 301.6 219.4 184.3 353.4 237.2 178.4 333.5 273.1 91.1 220.1 177.1 36.5 88.3 67.5 72.0 138.3 102.6
SORSOGON 228.1 280.0 259.0 271.8 400.4 354.8 357.3 423.7 395.7 211.3 282.7 252.6 101.6 123.9 114.6 147.8 194.5 173.9
 PROVINCE OCTOBER NOVEMBER DECEMBER JANUARY FEBRUARY MARCH
REGION VI (WESTERN VISAYAS) MIN MAX MEAN MIN MAX MEAN MIN MAX MEAN MIN MAX MEAN MIN MAX MEAN MIN MAX MEAN
AKLAN 214.1 260.3 239.1 155.2 229.4 194.4 108.2 142.8 129.3 33.7 51.2 43.1 18.6 24.8 21.8 43.1 59.4 51.7
ANTIQUE 202.1 249.2 213.0 145.9 229.2 165.1 92.3 138.5 106.3 22.4 45.5 30.4 11.3 22.7 17.3 23.1 51.8 40.2
CAPIZ 208.8 275.7 243.3 152.2 205.6 178.1 104.7 170.3 130.3 32.5 84.3 50.2 17.9 35.8 23.5 43.2 70.5 56.7
GUIMARAS 221.2 268.9 237.5 132.5 153.2 139.2 97.3 106.6 100.2 30.6 38.2 33.6 19.5 23.3 21.1 41.2 45.1 42.7
ILOILO 198.8 252.6 216.5 131.1 242.2 160.6 97.1 202.2 117.7 24.9 112.9 44.7 16.5 46.6 22.9 35.2 81.1 50.0
NEGROS OCCIDENTAL 203.5 337.1 250.9 141.3 209.1 171.9 100.2 170.7 119.0 32.2 96.8 47.4 23.9 48.2 31.5 43.5 75.3 51.2
REGION VII (CENTRAL VISAYAS)
NEGROS ORIENTAL 142.6 304.5 206.9 99.7 189.8 149.3 108.5 147.5 121.0 39.2 64.8 48.6 29.7 42.5 36.2 42.2 53.4 49.2
BOHOL 157.3 199.8 183.9 140.2 199.5 173.0 130.7 194.8 159.5 66.1 175.9 115.0 41.4 88.5 56.7 63.7 106.7 82.3
CEBU 152.6 237.4 199.9 104.0 254.8 175.7 116.9 274.0 153.2 50.9 189.9 89.3 36.2 99.8 48.3 47.1 128.4 68.8
SIQUIJOR 163.6 187.4 175.5 120.8 162.8 143.9 133.1 148.2 140.9 63.5 74.6 69.3 39.8 44.0 41.9 50.3 61.5 56.6
REGION VIII (EASTERN VISAYAS)
BILIRAN 231.8 247.5 240.5 255.1 275.1 268.0 295.5 330.0 320.7 202.1 233.4 221.2 87.5 103.6 96.3 139.8 170.1 159.6
EASTERN SAMAR 217.0 298.4 254.8 296.2 371.4 334.7 360.7 434.2 382.4 265.4 353.2 286.1 112.4 208.9 138.9 195.6 229.0 204.7
LEYTE 165.1 238.5 209.9 119.5 293.6 250.2 207.7 379.3 308.7 169.5 276.0 225.8 63.7 169.7 121.3 99.2 192.1 154.0
NORTHERN SAMAR 232.4 304.1 274.4 274.6 447.9 376.1 350.0 503.6 438.8 248.7 390.5 338.2 97.9 167.4 139.4 139.3 211.4 196.3
SAMAR (WESTERN SAMAR) 206.8 279.2 255.0 266.6 399.6 310.6 335.2 440.8 378.7 229.7 339.6 276.4 80.6 165.0 119.5 143.9 204.2 196.4
SOUTHERN LEYTE 158.1 212.1 184.7 117.5 328.4 183.8 204.9 351.1 283.3 180.1 400.4 268.6 62.0 252.4 136.8 98.0 233.2 156.0
REGION IX (ZAMBOANGA PENINSULA)
ZAMBOANGA DEL NORTE 179.6 263.7 220.5 100.0 315.1 190.9 79.5 209.6 145.8 41.2 90.7 67.5 30.8 46.7 41.6 49.5 75.9 66.2
ZAMBOANGA DEL SUR 158.6 230.9 196.2 76.4 221.8 146.6 65.2 174.1 128.0 36.9 79.9 63.8 26.8 51.4 42.9 63.7 89.1 75.8
ZAMBOANGA SIBUGAY 199.8 213.1 204.5 137.2 159.8 147.3 96.2 142.4 120.1 49.0 68.0 60.4 34.9 47.3 41.8 69.9 81.7 74.3
REGION X (NORTHERN MINDANAO)
BUKIDNON 197.7 300.1 238.2 95.0 196.8 164.9 108.5 182.9 137.5 64.5 196.5 110.5 33.9 170.1 95.3 63.2 161.9 119.3
CAMIGUIN 200.0 217.0 206.7 196.5 229.2 208.3 180.6 201.1 189.5 151.9 178.3 164.2 100.6 121.7 110.7 107.0 118.8 112.6
LANAO DEL NORTE 183.5 209.9 192.7 115.5 195.4 157.6 117.6 153.0 135.3 63.0 74.2 69.5 37.1 55.0 46.7 70.9 99.2 82.3
MISAMIS OCCIDENTAL 178.1 224.3 198.9 95.1 215.3 155.1 107.8 229.6 153.9 64.2 256.4 132.5 32.2 190.6 95.1 61.2 145.7 97.6
MISAMIS ORIENTAL 178.1 224.3 198.9 95.1 215.3 155.1 107.8 229.6 153.9 64.2 256.4 132.5 32.2 190.6 95.1 61.2 145.7 97.6
REGION XI (DAVAO REGION)
COMPOSTELA VALLEY 156.2 218.8 182.1 134.9 256.0 181.6 124.8 292.4 197.7 128.8 425.9 256.9 110.5 348.2 208.6 119.4 288.3 188.1
DAVAO CITY 175.1 228.0 208.6 135.7 190.7 166.8 126.4 148.6 132.3 97.6 148.0 115.3 78.9 130.4 97.1 116.6 143.4 126.8
DAVAO DEL NORTE 159.7 238.4 190.7 134.4 199.2 171.4 126.3 222.1 160.4 117.7 295.2 175.4 93.0 245.6 150.9 119.7 214.9 153.9
DAVAO DEL SUR 141.1 226.7 196.3 119.1 185.4 165.4 108.3 128.6 119.7 80.5 112.0 93.2 58.5 85.1 71.7 86.0 120.9 104.8
DAVAO OCCIDENTAL 124.8 196.7 164.6 96.9 188.7 152.8 105.7 147.0 123.2 80.2 119.9 103.6 56.6 98.0 75.9 80.7 110.6 95.3
DAVAO ORIENTAL 175.4 223.1 194.5 155.0 270.9 197.5 141.6 312.7 203.2 150.6 471.5 269.9 114.7 375.4 202.5 125.5 308.3 183.8
REGION XII (SOCCSKSARGEN)
SOUTH COTABATO 72.4 193.4 150.9 55.4 169.9 126.9 91.5 118.8 106.1 70.4 83.6 72.9 41.5 70.0 58.2 59.6 103.9 86.3
COTABATO 192.7 230.4 207.3 165.5 196.9 186.6 112.0 139.3 124.4 68.9 118.4 83.5 61.0 106.9 73.5 104.1 133.2 116.8
SARANGANI 84.1 193.4 142.1 57.9 174.1 119.3 95.9 135.3 112.4 71.2 105.5 85.5 46.2 85.4 64.2 64.7 100.4 84.7
SULTAN KUDARAT 163.8 203.4 192.3 145.4 179.8 168.8 106.2 122.7 116.5 68.9 86.2 72.5 60.3 72.6 67.0 93.0 112.3 104.6
REGION XIII- CARAGA
AGUSAN DEL NORTE 152.2 202.8 175.5 194.4 306.9 220.4 189.6 339.8 257.3 205.3 444.7 320.7 169.0 309.2 247.1 134.2 239.7 175.5
AGUSAN DEL SUR 165.1 258.0 210.6 176.8 378.4 228.1 169.0 402.8 260.7 179.0 598.4 350.6 156.3 504.6 289.5 135.8 408.5 231.6
DINAGAT ISLANDS 206.0 215.3 210.4 262.3 372.5 304.5 372.2 402.7 386.1 347.0 495.8 427.2 207.0 327.9 266.9 216.0 282.8 249.9
SURIGAO DEL NORTE 191.5 213.5 204.9 240.4 398.5 315.7 325.1 416.2 369.8 400.4 512.0 470.8 280.6 350.4 314.9 223.3 301.1 260.5
SURIGAO DEL SUR 182.0 265.6 212.3 213.5 382.9 265.0 295.4 421.3 342.4 418.1 627.4 496.8 301.2 532.9 378.7 221.3 433.4 293.3
ARMM
BASILAN 171.4 204.1 185.4 86.9 145.4 115.6 70.8 88.9 77.8 36.7 47.6 41.0 29.8 45.9 34.2 70.5 81.4 77.9
MAGUINDANAO 183.9 238.7 212.6 161.3 193.7 176.2 109.9 130.7 118.0 68.5 81.5 73.3 59.2 70.4 65.0 99.8 123.0 114.2
LANAO DEL SUR 189.2 223.1 203.4 148.6 194.9 180.4 121.3 145.6 129.7 63.0 80.3 67.2 42.6 74.4 55.5 79.1 116.9 99.6
SULU 199.8 208.0 205.5 141.7 150.6 145.9 84.0 95.0 89.3 34.0 51.7 37.9 29.6 51.9 34.5 57.0 82.3 66.3
TAWI-TAWI 208.0 211.2 208.2 144.6 150.2 145.1 91.5 96.0 94.8 24.1 39.3 37.6 20.4 34.0 32.8 43.6 60.9 59.5
 FORECAST RAINFALL per Region in (mm) and (%N)
OCTOBER NOVEMBER DECEMBER JANUARY FEBRUARY MARCH
REGION MIN MAX MEAN %NORMAL MIN MAX MEAN %NORMAL MIN MAX MEAN %NORMAL MIN MAX MEAN %NORMAL MIN MAX MEAN %NORMAL MIN MAX MEAN %NORMAL
ARMM 171.4 238.7 205.6 89.4 86.9 194.9 165.2 81.5 70.8 145.6 112.4 82.2 24.1 81.5 61.2 75.8 20.4 74.4 52.8 67.0 43.6 123.0 96.2 117.7
CAR 99.0 282.3 209.0 71.6 18.4 231.8 149.0 70.8 20.7 119.5 66.2 64.0 0.2 59.3 15.2 40.2 0.5 31.8 10.3 28.2 1.9 37.2 19.8 56.4
NCR 125.5 249.4 191.4 70.1 71.9 189.5 136.5 94.8 56.9 90.0 73.4 78.4 1.3 41.3 19.3 57.6 0.0 21.5 9.4 42.9 7.9 25.9 15.6 67.2
Region 1 63.6 232.2 156.2 64.6 9.2 161.8 73.2 63.9 12.1 97.5 29.7 57.1 0.0 45.3 5.5 23.9 0.0 23.6 4.3 13.0 0.1 31.0 13.9 41.9
Region 2 170.8 335.1 242.0 78.3 74.8 484.0 209.2 81.2 37.3 448.5 134.5 71.7 9.7 189.5 72.8 64.2 6.4 115.8 42.1 51.1 16.4 136.7 50.6 79.5
Region 3 134.6 402.5 203.0 72.5 33.7 565.0 160.0 84.3 15.3 277.5 64.1 65.5 0.0 239.4 35.3 35.5 0.0 150.2 22.8 21.9 1.1 174.4 29.5 50.5
Region 4-A 115.8 438.4 279.7 70.4 61.3 544.1 316.0 83.9 64.4 441.4 220.8 80.4 0.0 304.8 126.7 88.7 0.0 203.4 65.8 54.6 5.2 183.1 77.1 80.6
Region 4-B 152.3 314.1 223.8 76.1 89.9 343.7 188.1 85.5 54.9 338.2 112.5 71.0 0.0 166.3 32.4 53.6 0.2 71.4 18.6 36.1 2.0 110.8 33.1 59.1
Region 5 161.1 511.3 297.8 80.3 184.3 467.4 352.2 83.7 178.4 424.3 360.0 82.9 91.1 282.7 212.0 86.9 36.5 126.9 100.4 59.8 72.0 213.9 151.1 104.2
Region 6 198.8 337.1 235.3 83.5 131.1 242.2 170.0 78.4 92.3 202.2 118.8 82.7 22.4 112.9 44.1 70.0 11.3 48.2 25.4 50.9 23.1 81.1 49.9 83.3
Region 7 142.6 304.5 197.3 89.1 99.7 254.8 164.9 79.9 108.5 274.0 143.3 83.3 39.2 189.9 81.7 72.2 29.7 99.8 46.2 56.6 42.2 128.4 65.4 87.3
Region 8 158.1 304.1 240.1 84.3 117.5 447.9 298.9 80.8 204.9 503.6 361.5 87.3 169.5 400.4 273.0 80.9 62.0 252.4 128.0 53.2 98.0 233.2 182.6 96.4
Region 9 158.6 263.7 208.6 90.5 76.4 315.1 166.4 79.1 65.2 209.6 134.4 85.2 36.9 90.7 64.8 73.2 26.8 51.4 42.1 58.1 49.5 89.1 71.3 100.4
Region 10 178.1 300.1 220.9 93.7 95.0 277.7 166.9 82.2 107.8 229.6 144.1 82.4 63.0 256.4 105.3 73.2 32.2 190.6 81.9 72.1 56.5 161.9 103.3 114.9
Region 11 124.8 238.4 189.3 90.5 96.9 270.9 177.5 86.1 105.7 312.7 169.3 85.3 80.2 471.5 197.0 82.2 56.6 375.4 156.1 92.0 80.7 308.3 155.5 147.4
Region 12 72.4 230.4 178.9 89.0 55.4 196.9 156.3 81.4 91.5 139.3 116.1 87.6 68.9 118.4 78.7 84.3 41.5 106.9 66.7 76.6 59.6 133.2 101.0 144.9
CARAGA 152.2 265.6 204.8 89.6 176.8 398.5 248.5 89.9 169.0 421.3 296.5 86.3 179.0 627.4 396.2 83.4 156.3 532.9 305.1 94.7 134.2 433.4 240.9 101.5

OCTOBER NOVEMBER DECEMBER JANUARY FEBRUARY MARCH

REGION MIN MAX MEAN %NORMAL MIN MAX MEAN %NORMAL MIN MAX MEAN %NORMAL MIN MAX MEAN %NORMAL MIN MAX MEAN %NORMAL MIN MAX MEAN %NORMAL
Luzon 63.6 511.3 231.6 74.1 9.2 565.0 207.3 80.2 12.1 448.5 138.6 70.7 0.0 304.8 68.9 56.7 0.0 203.4 36.9 38.8 0.1 213.9 51.98 67.9
Visayas 142.6 337.1 227.4 85.3 99.7 447.9 217.4 79.7 96.0 503.6 217.0 84.6 23.4 400.4 140.5 74.7 15.1 252.4 69.7 53.3 33.9 233.2 104.2 89.3
Mindanao 72.4 300.1 200.6 90.5 55.4 398.5 181.7 83.7 65.2 421.3 166.7 85.0 28.4 627.4 160.8 79.2 22.4 532.9 125.6 78.4 46.5 433.4 133 122.4
 FORECAST WATERSHED RAINFALL for selected
Dams and Lakes in (mm) and (%N)
FORECAST WATERSHED RAINFALL (OCTOBER 2018 - MARCH 2019 )
NAME Angat Watershed Lake Buhi Lake Lanao Magat Watershed Malinao Watershed Pantabangan Watershed San Roque Cascade WS

MIN 244.2 261.5 189.9 182.7 184.5 161.2 194.4

MAX 314.0 365.0 254.6 235.4 196.1 238.8 241.7
OCTOBER
MEAN 275.3 302.4 206.7 207.3 191.5 199.5 228.4
%NORMAL 90.0 79.5 95.2 67.9 88.5 70.9 59.0
MIN 197.6 356.5 95.1 79.9 172.5 44.4 53.4
MAX 304.8 409.9 194.8 200.9 194.0 171.6 135.1
NOVEMBER
MEAN 237.6 377.2 158.2 147.2 186.6 97.1 89.9
%NORMAL 93.3 85.3 79.8 72.5 82.6 48.4 66.7
MIN 71.5 361.7 108.4 45.2 157.2 49.7 27.8
MAX 96.2 414.5 145.2 121.3 173.7 118.3 57.9
DECEMBER
MEAN 81.8 380.9 126.3 79.3 167.1 78.2 41.7
%NORMAL 64.8 82.7 80.0 62.5 82.0 55.8 60.1
MIN 29.7 198.7 63.0 9.1 114.2 12.7 5.0
MAX 111.0 231.8 84.6 59.2 138.3 88.8 17.2
JANUARY
way below normal MEAN 67.7 209.8 67.6 26.2 127.1 41.7 10.5
%NORMAL 63.4 81.1 71.7 43.9 79.5 26.7 37.2
below normal
MIN 7.7 100.8 32.2 8.7 55.7 2.2 3.3
near normal MAX 68.5 121.9 70.0 44.2 68.5 64.2 12.8
above normal FEBRUARY
MEAN 36.1 108.7 51.1 20.0 61.6 26.8 8.1
%NORMAL 32.2 59.5 62.8 38.4 55.1 20.4 22.9
MIN 12.0 152.2 61.5 23.5 80.6 6.0 21.4
MAX 61.6 203.8 109.4 58.6 91.6 75.8 34.8
MARCH
MEAN 34.2 170.9 90.1 35.0 86.0 35.8 31.5
%NORMAL 57.5 109.0 115.6 74.2 95.9 37.8 70.0
 FORECAST RAINFALL OF RAIN STATIONS OVER
SELECTED DAM AREAS
in (mm) and (%N) FOR OCT 2018 - MAR 2019
OCTOBER NOVEMBER DECEMBER JANUARY FEBRUARY MARCH
SITES MM %NORMAL MM %NORMAL MM %NORMAL MM %NORMAL MM %NORMAL MM %NORMAL
AMBUKLAODAM 239.6 58.5 90.1 67.2 41.2 61.0 10.7 38.9 8.0 23.0 33.3 72.2
ANGATDAM 263.5 93.9 214.2 94.0 71.4 63.0 28.1 46.3 6.2 25.6 10.8 56.9
APUNAN 229.4 60.6 112.0 68.7 50.0 60.9 11.8 39.3 10.2 26.8 32.3 71.0
BADAYAN 220.7 65.1 140.3 71.0 52.8 60.7 9.5 38.6 9.6 27.4 28.8 67.3
BINGADAM 235.9 57.3 79.4 66.0 37.7 60.6 9.9 38.1 7.1 21.5 32.8 71.8
BOBOK 236.3 60.6 101.8 68.2 47.5 60.9 13.6 38.7 10.1 25.0 33.1 70.9
BUNGA 198.0 66.8 93.4 51.4 62.7 56.9 22.1 24.0 14.1 18.7 25.9 44.8
BUYOC 195.1 68.8 158.2 76.1 85.5 64.4 23.0 47.9 18.6 44.5 32.2 81.0
way below DANTOR 206.4 72.3 170.5 76.0 83.7 65.2 14.8 45.7 13.4 41.0 26.0 77.4
normal DUMAYUP 198.7 70.1 163.8 77.8 99.9 63.9 39.6 51.1 29.0 50.1 41.9 84.4
below normal HALONG 204.0 68.9 158.1 73.6 70.0 62.9 13.7 42.8 12.5 35.5 27.4 72.1
near normal IPODAM 245.2 89.0 190.7 105.2 66.0 67.0 12.9 43.0 1.0 29.1 8.4 57.1
above normal MAGATDAM 184.6 69.8 164.1 83.8 110.2 67.8 28.9 55.0 21.4 58.2 30.7 95.5
MAPUTI 271.6 88.8 236.0 95.9 84.5 64.4 78.3 65.5 44.7 33.0 41.6 56.4
MARIKIT 220.6 75.4 137.8 53.7 104.4 56.4 76.3 38.4 53.5 31.0 62.6 42.7
MATULID 290.2 90.0 256.8 88.3 84.2 66.2 73.8 70.4 39.0 35.1 35.2 60.4
NORZAGARAY 243.2 89.9 191.4 106.2 64.8 65.8 11.0 39.4 0.2 26.4 7.7 55.4
PADALIS 203.1 72.0 99.4 45.9 85.5 55.5 48.1 27.9 31.4 22.4 40.3 37.7
PANTABANGAN DAM 159.4 70.1 46.7 43.1 52.2 52.3 15.9 10.5 2.1 1.5 4.5 12.5
SANROQUEDAM 194.4 60.5 63.2 64.6 29.3 55.6 5.0 26.7 3.3 15.5 21.4 59.4
STODOMINGO 214.8 68.1 147.5 73.3 82.4 61.8 34.2 43.9 25.0 38.4 40.8 73.4
TALAGUIO 254.8 91.3 206.7 98.3 73.5 63.2 43.4 48.9 20.7 26.2 23.0 53.7
 FORECAST RAINFALL OVER SELECTED RIVER BASINS
in millimeter and percent of normal (%N)
OCTOBER – DECEMBER 2018
CATCHMENT OCTOBER 2018 NOVEMBER 2018 DECEMBER 2018
MIN MAX MEAN %Normal MIN MAX MEAN %Normal MIN MAX MEAN %Normal
LUZON
Abra RB 88.3 225.6 174.8 66.6 12.1 169.7 120.1 58.9 16.2 64.0 43.1 57.0
Abulug RB 158.5 294.1 227.5 81.2 105.7 241.4 178.9 75.9 51.2 132.1 83.8 71.2
Agno RB 142.6 241.8 180.5 64.7 40.2 150.6 91.3 72.7 12.9 58.3 27.9 59.5
Bicol RB 262.2 461.2 324.2 81.7 360.8 453.9 385.7 85.5 368.2 414.4 381.2 81.7
Bued RB 144.8 240.6 185.0 61.1 33.9 68.3 46.7 66.2 12.3 29.8 21.3 53.0
Cagayan RB 170.8 359.7 235.7 76.7 79.9 524.0 203.9 81.1 45.2 247.5 116.8 68.6
Laoag RB 63.6 181.3 124.8 62.2 14.5 136.8 67.1 53.5 17.5 61.9 35.5 61.5
Pampanga RB 140.9 312.8 192.3 75.4 33.7 302.2 132.5 82.8 20.4 137.9 52.9 63.0
Pasig-Laguna RB 122.9 349.8 223.7 68.5 65.0 429.9 213.6 88.7 47.5 302.9 123.7 78.3
Sinocalan RB 142.6 177.6 154.4 66.0 36.0 74.8 55.3 70.7 12.1 27.1 17.1 51.2
MINDANAO
Agus RB 187.1 211.8 195.4 98.5 96.1 177.2 134.1 75.2 108.4 137.0 124.3 77.6
way below normal Agusan RB 152.2 251.9 201.8 89.8 158.8 343.7 214.7 89.9 159.3 362.3 243.4 85.5
below normal Buayan-Malungon 72.4 180.2 134.0 85.0 55.4 164.7 111.0 77.1 91.5 121.7 109.0 91.1
near normal Cagayan de Oro 195.0 257.6 224.4 98.4 95.0 170.3 133.5 77.8 107.8 126.6 119.8 79.0
above normal Cotabato RB 127.4 300.1 210.4 90.5 96.9 196.9 175.8 83.8 98.5 176.1 124.6 85.3
Davao RB 196.4 226.9 207.2 93.3 139.8 190.8 176.9 85.2 127.8 166.6 139.6 84.8
Tagoloan River 205.7 288.1 249.9 97.2 110.1 170.5 140.5 81.5 123.6 163.0 139.5 81.2
Tagum-Libuganon 164.0 231.5 188.2 88.9 135.5 217.4 181.2 88.9 128.2 252.0 182.4 83.5
 FORECAST RAINFALL OVER SELECTED RIVER BASINS
in millimeter and percent of normal (%N)
JANUARY– MARCH 2019
CATCHMENT JANUARY 2019 FEBRUARY 2019 MARCH 2019
MIN MAX MEAN %Normal MIN MAX MEAN %Normal MIN MAX MEAN %Normal
LUZON
Abra RB 0.1 14.3 4.6 27.6 0.2 9.2 4.6 15.7 1.0 29.3 12.1 36.2
Abulug RB 13.2 70.1 35.4 49.3 7.6 37.7 19.3 36.5 9.4 25.2 16.7 46.2
Agno RB 0.0 18.7 3.5 24.0 0.0 13.3 2.7 13.7 1.9 35.1 14.4 53.6
Bicol RB 200.3 230.9 210.7 81.7 102.8 121.6 109.1 60.5 151.7 202.7 168.2 109.0
Bued RB 0.0 6.8 2.5 25.4 0.1 4.8 2.0 14.4 12.6 35.0 20.2 61.6
Cagayan RB 4.2 200.8 53.3 56.8 5.6 126.9 33.2 46.4 12.7 150.4 44.2 78.4
Laoag RB 2.0 25.3 9.8 26.8 0.1 13.7 4.9 10.7 0.4 12.3 5.5 21.0
Pampanga RB 0.0 138.3 22.7 28.3 0.0 99.2 13.4 16.5 1.1 107.0 17.4 42.7
Pasig-Laguna RB 0.0 180.8 57.0 72.2 0.0 111.4 29.9 45.4 3.1 93.1 35.4 73.8
Sinocalan RB 0.0 1.7 0.1 18.4 0.0 1.6 0.2 11.2 8.6 15.1 11.4 53.2
MINDANAO
Agus RB 63.0 85.5 68.3 68.1 32.2 55.5 41.4 53.5 61.5 97.3 74.5 114.7
Agusan RB 174.0 531.6 321.2 80.9 144.4 444.2 264.8 98.4 128.6 357.2 212.9 105.2
way below normal Buayan-Malungon 72.3 104.4 87.3 85.7 41.5 75.2 60.6 76.0 59.6 98.7 83.8 154.7
below normal Cagayan de Oro 65.1 87.6 73.5 69.6 32.2 78.3 54.8 65.7 61.2 113.2 89.7 119.9
near normal Cotabato RB 66.8 192.8 87.9 81.8 52.9 168.9 77.7 80.9 78.1 165.9 114.9 143.2
above normal Davao RB 103.5 176.4 126.3 81.4 89.0 155.5 110.5 95.3 122.6 159.1 134.1 187.6
Tagoloan River 83.8 157.3 118.2 70.9 62.5 132.7 95.4 78.4 80.8 139.3 109.6 113.1
Tagum-Libuganon 127.9 349.5 218.4 79.0 110.9 289.1 185.8 98.3 123.8 245.2 175.5 120.6
PROBABILISTIC FORECAST

How certain or
uncertain are
we?

Forecasting rainfall in
probabilistic terms is a
way of expressing
uncertainty in the
future
weather/climate.
 MONTHLY MEAN
TEMPERATURE FORECAST
(OCTOBER 2018 - MARCH 2019 Slightly warmer Near average Near average

Slightly warmer warmer

warmer

warmer
Slightly cooler
warmer
Slightly warmer

warmer
warmer Slightly warmer

cooler

Slightly cooler Slightly cooler

Near average Near average

Near average
Near average

Slightly cooler

Slightly cooler
warmer

Near average

Slightly warmer
 FORECAST RANGES OF TEMPERATURE (EXTREME)
Updated : 26 Sept.2018

Oct-18 Nov-18 Dec-18 Jan-19 Feb-19 Mar-19

TMAX Summary
Tmax-Range Tmax-Range Tmax-Range Tmax-Range Tmax-Range Tmax-Range
Northern Luzon 29.6 36.9 28.7 37.8 27.0 37.9 26.3 35.6 27.3 36.3 28.9 37.5
Lowlands Luzon 31.9 35.6 31.0 36.6 29.7 35.0 29.5 35.2 29.8 36.3 31.2 37.0
Mountainous Luzon 25.4 27.0 26.2 27.3 25.4 26.8 24.8 27.0 25.1 27.2 26.5 28.3
Metro Manila 32.5 35.0 32.7 34.4 31.6 34.4 31.7 34.2 31.8 35.2 34.0 36.5
Lowlands Visayas 29.9 35.5 31.7 35.0 30.0 34.5 29.2 34.6 29.8 35.3 30.8 36.4
Lowlands Mindanao 32.2 36.3 32.0 37.9 31.6 36.7 31.0 36.0 31.0 36.5 31.7 37.4
Mountainous Mindanao 31.8 33.2 32.0 33.5 32.0 33.2 31.6 33.4 32.0 35.1 32.5 34.0

Oct-18 Nov-18 Dec-18 Jan-19 Feb-19 Mar-19

TMIN Summary
Tmin-Range Tmin-Range Tmin-Range Tmin-Range Tmin-Range Tmin-Range
Northern Luzon 15.7 22.6 16.3 23.0 13.7 20.5 13.0 20.4 14.1 22.0 13.2 22.5
Lowlands Luzon 18.8 25.0 18.5 25.4 16.6 25.6 16.4 25.2 17.0 25.3 18.0 26.0
Mountainous Luzon 12.4 14.6 10.8 13.6 9.2 12.9 8.7 11.8 9.1 12.9 9.7 15.5
Metro Manila 20.3 24.5 18.9 24.3 17.2 23.5 17.9 24.0 18.3 23.8 18.9 24.5
Lowlands Visayas 21.3 24.7 20.4 24.4 19.2 24.5 19.5 24.0 18.2 25.6 19.9 25.9
Lowlands Mindanao 20.6 23.8 19.5 23.4 18.9 24.6 17.2 23.1 18.0 23.2 19.0 24.0
Mountainous Mindanao 16.0 18.0 14.8 17.1 13.3 17.0 13.3 16.4 12.9 17.0 13.8 15.7
DRY DAY FORECAST

Dry day – a day with <1.0 mm rainfall.

DRY DAY FORECAST

Dry day – a day with <1.0 mm rainfall.

 DRY DAY (OCTOBER 2018 TO MARCH 2019) as of 21 September 2018
PROVINCE
No. of Dry Days
OCT NOV DEC JAN FEB MAR
CORDILLERA ADMINISTRATIVE REGION (CAR)
ABRA 22 - 26 23 - 28 26 - 30 30 - 31 27 - 28 31 - 31
BENGUET 19 - 21 22 - 26 27 - 30 30 - 31 27 - 28 30 - 31
IFUGAO 19 - 22 18 - 22 19 - 26 28 - 31 26 - 28 30 - 31
KALINGA 22 - 23 20 - 24 23 - 27 29 - 31 27 - 28 31 - 31
APAYAO 20 - 24 17 - 24 19 - 27 24 - 30 24 - 28 30 - 31
MOUNTAIN PROVINCE 20 - 22 19 - 24 21 - 28 29 - 31 27 - 28 31 - 31
REGION I
ILOCOS NORTE 24 - 27 23 - 29 25 - 31 27 - 31 26 - 28 30 - 31
ILOCOS SUR 20 - 27 23 - 29 27 - 31 31 - 31 27 - 28 30 - 31
LA UNION 20 - 22 24 - 27 29 - 30 31 - 31 27 - 28 30 - 31
PANGASINAN 20 - 25 24 - 29 28 - 31 30 - 31 27 - 29 30 - 31
REGION II
BATANES 15 - 16 14 - 15 14 - 15 14 - 16 17 - 19 22 - 24
CAGAYAN 15 - 24 12 - 23 13 - 25 16 - 29 18 - 27 25 - 31
ISABELA 17 - 23 12 - 20 15 - 23 16 - 30 18 - 27 22 - 31
NUEVA VIZCAYA 16 - 21 18 - 24 20 - 28 18 - 31 19 - 27 21 - 30
QUIRINO 15 - 20 15 - 19 17 - 22 17 - 27 18 - 26 20 - 29
REGION III (CENTRAL LUZON)
BATAAN 25 - 27 26 - 27 30 - 31 31 - 31 28 - 29 31 - 31
BULACAN 15 - 24 14 - 25 17 - 30 20 - 31 20 - 28 24 - 31
NUEVA ECIJA 15 - 24 17 - 28 19 - 30 18 - 31 19 - 29 22 - 31
PAMPANGA 20 - 25 22 - 27 27 - 30 30 - 31 26 - 29 30 - 31
TARLAC 23 - 25 26 - 28 30 - 30 31 - 31 28 - 29 31 - 31
ZAMBALES 24 - 26 26 - 28 29 30 31 31 28 29 31 31
AURORA 13 - 17 13 - 20 16 - 23 12 - 21 15 - 21 17 - 24
NATIONAL CAPITAL REGION
METRO MANILA 17 - 22 18 - 22 24 - 27 28 - 31 25 - 27 30 - 31
REGION IV-A (CALABARZON)
BATANGAS 16 - 26 13 - 26 13 - 29 21 - 31 22 - 28 27 - 31
CAVITE 22 - 26 21 - 26 25 - 29 30 - 31 27 - 28 31 - 31
LAGUNA 14 - 23 9 - 21 8 - 25 16 - 30 19 - 27 25 - 31
RIZAL 15 - 19 11 - 19 12 - 24 19 - 29 20 - 26 25 - 30
QUEZON 10 - 19 6 - 16 4 - 18 6 - 25 13 - 25 17 - 29
REGION IV-B (MIMAROPA)
MARINDUQUE 12 - 14 11 - 12 11 - 13 18 - 19 21 - 22 27 - 28
OCCIDENTAL MINDORO 16 - 26 15 - 27 15 - 30 19 - 31 23 - 28 27 - 31
ORIENTAL MINDORO 15 - 20 13 - 19 13 - 20 19 - 24 22 - 25 27 - 29
ROMBLON 15 - 17 14 - 18 14 - 20 20 25 22 - 25 27 - 29
PALAWAN 17 - 21 18 - 26 23 - 29 28 - 31 26 - 28 30 - 31
REGION V (BICOL)
ALBAY 14 - 16 10 - 13 10 - 15 16 - 22 19 - 22 21 - 25
CAMARINES NORTE 11 - 13 7 - 10 7 - 10 12 - 18 18 - 21 23 - 27
CAMARINES SUR 12 - 14 9 - 15 8 - 18 15 - 26 19 - 23 22 - 26
CATANDUANES 10 - 14 2 - 16 0 - 19 4 - 27 14 - 23 15 - 27
MASBATE 14 - 21 11 - 18 12 - 17 19 - 24 19 - 27 23 - 31
SORSOGON 15 - 19 10 - 14 10 - 12 16 - 19 19 - 24 21 - 27
 DRY DAY (OCTOBER 2018 TO MARCH 2019) as of 21 September 2018
PROVINCE
No. of Dry Days
OCT NOV DEC JAN FEB MAR
REGION VI (WESTERN VISAYAS)
AKLAN 17 - 17 17 - 19 20 - 22 25 - 26 25 - 26 29 - 30
ANTIQUE 17 - 18 18 - 22 21 - 26 25 - 29 25 - 27 29 - 31
CAPIZ 17 - 17 17 - 19 19 - 22 24 - 27 26 - 26 29 - 30
GUIM ARAS 16 - 17 19 - 20 23 - 24 27 - 28 26 - 26 30 - 30
ILOILO 17 - 18 18 - 21 18 - 25 24 - 29 26 - 27 29 - 31
NEGROS OCCIDENTAL 16 - 18 18 - 21 20 - 24 25 - 28 26 - 27 29 - 30
REGION VII (CENTRAL VISAYAS)
NEGROS ORIENTAL 16 - 19 19 - 21 19 - 22 24 - 27 26 - 27 29 - 30
BOHOL 18 - 19 16 - 18 20 - 21 21 - 24 23 - 24 26 - 28
CEBU 18 - 20 17 - 20 17 - 21 20 - 25 22 - 26 27 - 31
SIQUIJOR 18 - 19 17 - 19 19 - 20 23 - 24 25 - 25 28 - 29
REGION VIII (EASTERN VISAYAS)
BILIRAN 18 - 20 15 - 18 15 - 16 20 - 21 24 - 27 27 - 30
EASTERN SAM AR 7 - 17 2 - 12 4 - 10 8 - 15 8 - 18 9 - 21
LEYTE 16 - 20 13 - 18 11 - 20 16 - 21 19 - 26 22 - 30
NORTHERN SAM AR 5 - 20 1 - 15 2 - 12 7 - 19 7 - 26 7 - 29
SAM AR (WESTERN SAM AR) 8 - 21 5 - 16 7 - 15 12 - 20 11 - 27 12 - 30
SOUTHERN LEYTE 17 - 18 15 - 17 14 - 20 17 - 20 20 - 22 23 - 26
REGION IX (ZAM BOANGA PENINSULA)
ZAM BOANGA DEL NORTE 16 - 21 14 - 23 16 - 26 22 - 28 24 - 26 29 - 30
ZAM BOANGA DEL SUR 16 - 21 14 - 23 16 - 26 22 - 28 24 - 26 30 - 31
ZAM BOANGA SIBUGAY 17 - 19 16 - 21 18 - 23 23 - 27 24 - 26 30 - 30
REGION X (NORTHERN M INDANAO)
BUKIDNON 13 - 19 15 - 22 17 - 23 19 - 24 21 - 25 24 - 30
CAM IGUIN 18 - 18 19 - 19 21 - 22 22 - 22 23 - 23 27 - 27
LANAO DEL NORTE 17 - 19 17 - 23 18 - 23 23 - 25 24 - 25 30 - 31
M ISAM IS OCCIDENTAL 14 - 20 16 - 23 18 - 23 18 - 25 20 - 25 23 - 30
M ISAM IS ORIENTAL 14 - 20 16 - 23 18 - 23 18 - 25 20 - 25 23 - 30
REGION XI (DAVAO REGION)
CAM POSTELA VALLEY 16 - 24 15 - 21 14 - 22 14 - 23 15 - 23 18 - 26
DAVAO CITY 15 - 19 17 - 19 21 - 22 21 - 24 23 - 23 25 - 26
DAVAO DEL NORTE 14 - 21 15 - 21 17 - 23 18 - 23 19 - 23 22 - 26
DAVAO DEL SUR 17 - 21 19 - 22 22 - 23 23 - 25 23 - 24 25 - 27
DAVAO OCCIDENTAL 20 - 28 21 - 27 23 - 24 24 - 27 24 - 25 26 - 30
DAVAO ORIENTAL 19 - 26 15 - 24 13 - 23 12 - 23 14 - 22 16 - 26
REGION XII (SOCCSKSARGEN)
SOUTH COTABATO 19 - 24 21 - 24 21 - 23 25 - 26 24 - 26 27 - 31
NORTH COTABATO 14 - 18 17 - 21 21 - 22 22 - 25 23 - 25 25 - 30
SARANGANI 20 - 26 22 - 26 22 - 23 25 - 27 24 - 26 27 - 31
SULTAN KUDARAT 17 - 21 20 - 22 21 - 23 24 - 26 24 - 26 27 - 31
REGION XIII- CARAGA
AGUSAN DEL NORTE 14 - 16 13 - 16 13 - 18 13 - 18 15 - 20 18 - 24
AGUSAN DEL SUR 13 - 20 12 - 15 10 - 18 9 - 19 12 - 21 13 - 24
DINAGAT ISLANDS 17 - 17 13 - 14 12 - 14 14 - 15 17 - 19 20 - 22
SURIGAO DEL NORTE 16 - 17 11 - 15 9 - 16 10 - 16 14 - 19 16 - 22
SURIGAO DEL SUR 16 - 20 10 - 15 8 - 13 8 - 13 10 - 15 11 - 18
ARM M
BASILAN 21 - 22 23 - 25 26 - 28 28 - 30 26 - 27 29 - 30
M AGUINDANAO 16 - 19 19 - 21 20 - 22 24 - 25 24 - 25 27 - 31
LANAO DEL SUR 15 - 19 18 - 22 19 - 23 23 - 25 25 - 25 28 - 31
SULU 22 - 23 25 - 26 28 - 30 30 - 32 26 - 27 29 - 30
TAWI-TAWI 20 - 23 23 - 26 27 - 30 31 - 32 27 - 27 29 - 30
 Tropical Cyclone Forecast
MONTH NUMBER OF TC
OCTOBER 2018 2 OR 3
NOVEMBER 2018 1 OR 2
DECEMBER 2018 1 OR 2
JANUARY 2019 0 OR 1
FEBRUARY 2019 Slim chance
MARCH 2019 0 OR 1

4 - 7 TCs from OCT. 2018 - MAR. 2019

2018/9/28
SUMMARY:
• Warm ENSO-neutral conditions persisted since June 2018;
• There is a 50-55% chance of El Niño onset during the Sept-Nov
2018, increasing to 65-70% during Dec-Feb 2018-19.
• ENSO Status: El Nino Watch
• Rainfall forecast:
• October 2018: most parts of Luzon will likely experience below
normal rainfall condition while most parts of Visayas and
Mindanao will likely receive near normal rainfall;
• November 2018: below normal rainfall in most parts of northern
Luzon, western Visayas and some parts of Mindanao while the
rest of the country will likely receive near normal rainfall;
• December 2018: below normal conditions in most areas of
Luzon, while generally near normal over the Visayas and
Mindanao;
SUMMARY:
• Rainfall forecast:
• January to February 2019: generally way below to below
normal rainfall conditions expected in most parts of Luzon
and Visayas with patches of near normal rainfall over
Mindanao.
• March 2019: below to way below normal in most parts of
Luzon while near to above normal in most parts of
Mindanao.
• Generally near average to slightly warmer than average
temperature is forecasted during the period;
• 4-7 TCs may develop/enter PAR during the forecast period;
• Potential meteorological dry spell to drought conditions likely
in most areas of Luzon in the coming months.
PAGASA will continue to closely monitor
the possible development of El Nino and
updates/advisories shall be issued as
appropriate.
Weekly ENSO monitoring is available at: http://www.pagasa.dost.gov.ph/index.php/climate/climate-
prediction/el-nino-southern-oscillation-enso-status

Next National Climate Outlook Forum (107th ): 24 October2018

43
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 SIMILAR CONDITIONS 1969-70; 1976-77;1977-78;1986-87(s) ;1994-95;2006-07
Year DJF JFM FMA MAM AMJ MJJ JJA JAS ASO SON OND NDJ Year DJF JFM FMA MAM AMJ MJJ JJA JAS ASO SON OND NDJ
1950 -1.5 -1.3 -1.2 -1.2 -1.1 -0.9 -0.5 -0.4 -0.4 -0.4 -0.6 -0.8 1970 0.5 0.3 0.3 0.2 0.0 -0.3 -0.6 -0.8 -0.8 -0.7 -0.9 -1.1
1951 -0.8 -0.5 -0.2 0.2 0.4 0.6 0.7 0.9 1.0 1.2 1.0 0.8 1971 -1.4 -1.4 -1.1 -0.8 -0.7 -0.7 -0.8 -0.8 -0.8 -0.9 -1.0 -0.9
1952 0.5 0.4 0.3 0.3 0.2 0.0 -0.1 0.0 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.1 1972 -0.7 -0.4 0.1 0.4 0.7 0.9 1.1 1.4 1.6 1.8 2.1 2.1
1953 0.4 0.6 0.6 0.7 0.8 0.8 0.7 0.7 0.8 0.8 0.8 0.8 1973 1.8 1.2 0.5 -0.1 -0.5 -0.9 -1.1 -1.3 -1.5 -1.7 -1.9 -2.0
1954 0.8 0.5 0.0 -0.4 -0.5 -0.5 -0.6 -0.8 -0.9 -0.8 -0.7 -0.7 1974 -1.8 -1.6 -1.2 -1.0 -0.9 -0.8 -0.5 -0.4 -0.4 -0.6 -0.8 -0.6
1955 -0.7 -0.6 -0.7 -0.8 -0.8 -0.7 -0.7 -0.7 -1.1 -1.4 -1.7 -1.5 1975 -0.5 -0.6 -0.7 -0.7 -0.8 -1.0 -1.1 -1.2 -1.4 -1.4 -1.6 -1.7
1956 -1.1 -0.8 -0.6 -0.5 -0.5 -0.5 -0.6 -0.6 -0.5 -0.4 -0.4 -0.4 1976 -1.6 -1.2 -0.7 -0.5 -0.3 0.0 0.2 0.4 0.6 0.8 0.9 0.8
1957 -0.2 0.1 0.4 0.7 0.9 1.1 1.3 1.3 1.3 1.4 1.5 1.7 1977 0.7 0.6 0.3 0.2 0.2 0.3 0.4 0.4 0.6 0.7 0.8 0.8
1958 1.8 1.7 1.3 0.9 0.7 0.6 0.6 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.5 0.6 1978 0.7 0.4 0.1 -0.2 -0.3 -0.3 -0.4 -0.4 -0.4 -0.3 -0.1 0.0
1959 0.6 0.6 0.5 0.3 0.2 -0.1 -0.2 -0.3 -0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 1979 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.2 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.3 0.5 0.5 0.6
Year DJF JFM FMA MAM AMJ MJJ JJA JAS ASO SON OND NDJ Year DJF JFM FMA MAM AMJ MJJ JJA JAS ASO SON OND NDJ
1960 -0.1 -0.1 -0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.2 0.1 0.1 1980 0.6 0.5 0.3 0.4 0.5 0.5 0.3 0.0 -0.1 0.0 0.1 0.0
1961 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.1 -0.1 -0.3 -0.3 -0.2 -0.2 1981 -0.3 -0.5 -0.5 -0.4 -0.3 -0.3 -0.3 -0.2 -0.2 -0.1 -0.2 -0.1
1962 -0.2 -0.2 -0.2 -0.3 -0.3 -0.2 0.0 -0.1 -0.1 -0.2 -0.3 -0.4 1982 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.5 0.7 0.7 0.8 1.1 1.6 2.0 2.2 2.2
1963 -0.4 -0.2 0.2 0.3 0.3 0.5 0.9 1.1 1.2 1.3 1.4 1.3 1983 2.2 1.9 1.5 1.3 1.1 0.7 0.3 -0.1 -0.5 -0.8 -1.0 -0.9
1964 1.1 0.6 0.1 -0.3 -0.6 -0.6 -0.6 -0.7 -0.8 -0.8 -0.8 -0.8 1984 -0.6 -0.4 -0.3 -0.4 -0.5 -0.4 -0.3 -0.2 -0.2 -0.6 -0.9 -1.1
1965 -0.6 -0.3 -0.1 0.2 0.5 0.8 1.2 1.5 1.9 2.0 2.0 1.7 1985 -1.0 -0.8 -0.8 -0.8 -0.8 -0.6 -0.5 -0.5 -0.4 -0.3 -0.3 -0.4
1966 1.4 1.2 1.0 0.7 0.4 0.2 0.2 0.1 -0.1 -0.1 -0.2 -0.3 1986 -0.5 -0.5 -0.3 -0.2 -0.1 0.0 0.2 0.4 0.7 0.9 1.1 1.2
1967 -0.4 -0.5 -0.5 -0.4 -0.2 0.0 0.0 -0.2 -0.3 -0.4 -0.3 -0.4 1987 1.2 1.2 1.1 0.9 1.0 1.2 1.5 1.7 1.6 1.5 1.3 1.1
1968 -0.6 -0.7 -0.6 -0.4 0.0 0.3 0.6 0.5 0.4 0.5 0.7 1.0 1988 0.8 0.5 0.1 -0.3 -0.9 -1.3 -1.3 -1.1 -1.2 -1.5 -1.8 -1.8
1969 1.1 1.1 0.9 0.8 0.6 0.4 0.4 0.5 0.8 0.9 0.8 0.6 1989 -1.7 -1.4 -1.1 -0.8 -0.6 -0.4 -0.3 -0.3 -0.2 -0.2 -0.2 -0.1

2018/9/28
Year DJF JFM FMA MAM AMJ MJJ JJA JAS ASO SON OND NDJ
1990 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.4 0.4 0.3 0.4 0.4
1991 0.4 0.3 0.2 0.3 0.5 0.6 0.7 0.6 0.6 0.8 1.2 1.5
1992 1.7 1.6 1.5 1.3 1.1 0.7 0.4 0.1 -0.1 -0.2 -0.3 -0.1
1993 0.1 0.3 0.5 0.7 0.7 0.6 0.3 0.3 0.2 0.1 0 0.1
DESCRIPTION: Warm (red) and cold (blue)
1994 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.6 0.7 1 1.1
periods based on a threshold of +/- 0.5oC for
1995 1 0.7 0.5 0.3 0.1 0 -0.2 -0.5 -0.8 -1 -1 -1 the Oceanic Niño Index (ONI) [3 month running
1996 -0.9 -0.8 -0.6 -0.4 -0.3 -0.3 -0.3 -0.3 -0.4 -0.4 -0.4 -0.5 mean of ERSST.v5 SST anomalies in the Niño
3.4 region (5oN-5oS, 120o-170oW)], based on
1997 -0.5 -0.4 -0.1 0.3 0.8 1.2 1.6 1.9 2.1 2.3 2.4 2.4
centered 30-year base periods updated every 5
1998 2.2 1.9 1.4 1 0.5 -0.1 -0.8 -1.1 -1.3 -1.4 -1.5 -1.6 years.
1999 -1.5 -1.3 -1.1 -1 -1 -1 -1.1 -1.1 -1.2 -1.3 -1.5 -1.7
For historical purposes, periods of below and
Year DJF JFM FMA MAM AMJ MJJ JJA JAS ASO SON OND NDJ
above normal SSTs are colored in blue and red
2000 -1.7 -1.4 -1.1 -0.8 -0.7 -0.6 -0.6 -0.5 -0.5 -0.6 -0.7 -0.7 when the threshold is met for a minimum of 5
2001 -0.7 -0.5 -0.4 -0.3 -0.3 -0.1 -0.1 -0.1 -0.2 -0.3 -0.3 -0.3 consecutive overlapping seasons. The ONI is
one measure of the El Niño-Southern
2002 -0.1 0 0.1 0.2 0.4 0.7 0.8 0.9 1 1.2 1.3 1.1
Oscillation, and other indices can confirm
2003 0.9 0.6 0.4 0 -0.3 -0.2 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.3 0.4 0.4 whether features consistent with a coupled
2004 0.4 0.3 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.3 0.5 0.6 0.7 0.7 0.7 0.7 ocean-atmosphere phenomenon accompanied
these periods.
2005 0.6 0.6 0.4 0.4 0.3 0.1 -0.1 -0.1 -0.1 -0.3 -0.6 -0.8
2006 -0.8 -0.7 -0.5 -0.3 0 0 0.1 0.3 0.5 0.7 0.9 0.9
2007 0.7 0.3 0 -0.2 -0.3 -0.4 -0.5 -0.8 -1.1 -1.4 -1.5 -1.6
2008 -1.6 -1.4 -1.2 -0.9 -0.8 -0.5 -0.4 -0.3 -0.3 -0.4 -0.6 -0.7
2009 -0.8 -0.7 -0.5 -0.2 0.1 0.4 0.5 0.5 0.7 1 1.3 1.6
Year DJF JFM FMA MAM AMJ MJJ JJA JAS ASO SON OND NDJ
2010 1.5 1.3 0.9 0.4 -0.1 -0.6 -1 -1.4 -1.6 -1.7 -1.7 -1.6
2011 -1.4 -1.1 -0.8 -0.6 -0.5 -0.4 -0.5 -0.7 -0.9 -1.1 -1.1 -1
2012 -0.8 -0.6 -0.5 -0.4 -0.2 0.1 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.2 0 -0.2
2013 -0.4 -0.3 -0.2 -0.2 -0.3 -0.3 -0.4 -0.4 -0.3 -0.2 -0.2 -0.3
2014 -0.4 -0.4 -0.2 0.1 0.3 0.2 0.1 0 0.2 0.4 0.6 0.7
2015 0.6 0.6 0.6 0.8 1 1.2 1.5 1.8 2.1 2.4 2.5 2.6
2016 2.5 2.2 1.7 1 0.5 0 -0.3 -0.6 -0.7 -0.7 -0.7 -0.6
2017 -0.3 -0.1 0.1 0.3 0.4 0.4 0.2 -0.1 -0.4 -0.7 -0.9 -1
2018 -0.9 -0.8 -0.6 -0.4 -0.1 0.1 0.1
NOAA Operational Definitions for El Niño and
La Niña
El Niño: characterized by a positive ONI greater than or equal to +0.5ºC.

La Niña: characterized by a negative ONI less than or equal to -0.5ºC.

By historical standards, to be classified as a full-fledged El Niño or La

Niña episode, these thresholds must be exceeded for a period of at least
5 consecutive overlapping 3-month seasons.

CPC considers El Niño or La Niña conditions to occur when the monthly

Niño3.4 OISST departures meet or exceed +/- 0.5ºC along with
consistent atmospheric features. These anomalies must also be
forecasted to persist for 3 consecutive months.
MONITORING
Dry condition / Dry spell / Drought CRITERIA
Dry condition = two (2) consecutive months of below normal (21%-60%
reduction from average) rainfall conditions;

Dry spell = three (3) consecutive months of below normal (21%-60% reduction
from average) rainfall conditions;

or
two (2) consecutive months of way below normal (more than 60%
reduction from average) rainfall conditions.

Drought - three (3) consecutive months of way below normal (>60% reduction
from average);
or
five (5) consecutive months of below normal (21%-60% reduction from
average) rainfall condition.
 DRY CONDITION/ DRY SPELL
ASSESSMENT
As of August 31, 2018

PROVINCES THAT EXPERIENCED DRY CONDITION

LUZON NONE
VISAYAS AKLAN, EASTERN SAMAR

AGUSAN DEL NORTE, CAMIGUIN, DINAGAT IS., LANAO

MINDANAO DEL NORTE, LANAO DEL SUR, MISAMIS OCC., MISAMIS
ORIENTAL, DAVAO CITY

PROVINCES THAT EXPERIENCED DRY SPELL

LUZON CATANDUANES, MASBATE, SORSOGON

VISAYAS BILIRAN, CEBU, NORTHERN SAMAR, SAMAR, SIQUIJOR

MINDANAO DAVAO DEL SUR, NORTH COTABATO, SURIGAO DEL
NORTE, ZAMBOANGA DEL SUR

PROVINCES THAT EXPERIENCED DROUGHT

LUZON NONE

VISAYAS NONE

MINDANAO NONE
 PAGASA ENSO ALERT SYSTEM
Types of Alert

During an El Niño
El Niño Watch - issued when climate favours development of El Niño conditions
within the next six months.

El Niño Advisory - an upgrade from El Niño Alert. Issued whenever El Niño is

currently on-going and the 3-month Oceanic Niño Index (ONI) threshold is
expected to persist during the forecast period.

Final El Niño Advisory - issued whenever an ONI value is between <0.5°C to > -
0.5°C or Neutral.
 PAGASA ENSO ALERT SYSTEM
Types of Alert

During a La Niña

La Niña Watch - issued when climate favours development of La Niña conditions within
the next six months

La Niña Advisory - an upgrade from La Niña Alert. Issued whenever a La Niña is

currently on-going and the 3-month Oceanic Niño Index (ONI) threshold is expected to
persist during the forecast period

Final La Niña Advisory - issued whenever an ONI value is between <0.5°C to > -0.5°C
or Neutral