Towards Rio+20:

Population Dynamics and Sustainable

Development
Background note prepared by UNFPA1

UNFPA special event on Rio+20, held during the Second Regular Session
of the Joint Executive Board of UNDP, UNFPA and UNOPS

7 September 2011, 3p.m. – 5p.m., New York, NY

The scientific evidence: The human impact on the environment is determined by interaction of
three principle factors, namely the rate of population growth, economic growth and the rate of
technological progress. The latter two are addressed by efforts to transition to the green
economy, but population growth has thus far received little attention in policy making. In
addition, strong evidence indicates that, beyond just the number of people there are, who they
are in terms of age and sex, where they live and what they do, consume and produce matters
for environmental impact.

The political reality: Past conferences acknowledged the importance of population dynamics
for sustainable development, including in 1992 Earth Summit’s Rio Declaration (principle 8) and
the 1994 ICPD Programme of Action (principle 6); however, in the years that followed,
population dynamics were not integrated in efforts to promote sustainable development. The
neglect is arguably due to the fact that many consider population dynamics as beyond the
influence of policy making, or think that population dynamics can only be addressed through
policies that infringe on fundamental human rights and freedoms. Neither perception is correct.
Population dynamics are not destiny, and they can and have been addressed through human-
rights based policies.

The challenge: Failure to address population dynamics in Rio+20 would be a step back from
where we were twenty years ago, and failure to go beyond a mere recognition of population
dynamics in Rio+20 would seriously undermine efforts to promote sustainable development.
The neglect of population dynamics during the past decades is one of the most consequential

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Prepared by the Population and Development Branch, Technical Division, UNFPA.

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gaps in policy making. This year, the world population will grow to over 7 billion and by mid-
century it will have grown to more than 9 billion, if we achieve the fertility reductions assumed
in the medium variant of the UN’s projections. Further, the world is undergoing the largest
wave of urban growth in history: already, over half the world’s population is living in towns and
cities, and by 2030 this number will swell to almost 5 billion, with urban growth concentrated in
Africa and Asia.

About one out of seven persons who currently live on the planet suffer extreme poverty,
defined by the World Bank as living under $1.25 per day. Unemployment, underemployment or
vulnerable employment is the key contributor to low household incomes and low household
incomes are also closely linked to food insecurity. Today, food insecurity is still largely a
question of access (i.e., household incomes), but food security is also rapidly becoming a
question of availability (i.e., adequate agricultural output). Because of competing uses of food
(for fodder and biofuels, for example), climate-change related hazards and other factors, food
production will need to increase at a relatively high rate. According to FAO’s 2010 estimates,
world agricultural output will need to grow by 70 per cent to feed a population of 9 billion
people with rising levels of consumption.

Poverty reduction, employment creation and food security depend on rising economic output –
in agriculture and outside agriculture – and rising economic output will further increase
pressures on all natural resources; this is what makes the transition to the green economy so
critical. These pressures are accentuated by population growth. Against the backdrop of
population growth, efforts to reduce poverty, which rely on higher consumption and
production, will result in rising pressures on the world’s natural resources – the climate, land,
forests and water.

Efforts to combat food insecurity and hunger; discourage an overexploitation of land, oceans
and ground water; promote universal access to energy; ensure sustainable urbanization; and
reduce natural and man-made disasters are strongly and inseparably linked to population
dynamics. Efforts to promote sustainable development cannot succeed as long as these efforts
remain disassociated from the knowledge and policy options linked to population dynamics.

Policies: To address challenges associated with population dynamics and promote more
sustainable pathways of development, countries have powerful instruments, which not only
respect, but strengthen human rights and freedoms and support human development.

(i) First, countries must recognize that it is the opportunities and choices of individuals
that add up to demographic changes, and in accordance they must address
demographic change by enlarging, not restricting, these choices and opportunities.
In addition, countries may seek to direct individual choices and opportunities

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 through incentives rather than controls. Better access to health care services,
including sexual and reproductive health, and education beyond the primary level,
not only contribute to falling infant, child and maternal mortality and help to arrest
the spread of communicable diseases, but also contribute to the empowerment of
women and falling fertility levels.
(ii) Second, countries must empower women not only to decide on the number and
timing of their children, by providing adequate access to sexual and reproductive
health care, but also promote their active participation in economic, social and
political life. Women who lack education and economic opportunities often have
more children, and because they have more children many lack education and
economic opportunities. Such poverty traps must be broken through decisive
policies.
(iii) Third, countries must recognize, cultivate and seize the powerful potential of youth
populations, be they small or large. The legitimate ambition of younger generations
to raise their living standards and escape poverty today, not tomorrow, appears to
leave little space for environmental concerns. However, the immediate interest of
younger generations to achieve material well-being and independence is juxtaposed
by a more long-term interest of younger generations in a sustainable environment.
Younger generations have a longer life expectancy, and a natural interest in the
long-term environmental sustainability. Younger generations are the custodians of
the future. They not only determine the future trends in fertility and population
growth, they are also amongst the foremost advocates of more sustainable patterns
of consumption and production.
(iv) Fourth, countries should address population dynamics before they unfold rather
than react after they have happened. Pro-active planning for population dynamics
requires a systematic use of available population data and projections. Current and
projected population trends, as well as different possible scenarios of population
change, must be taken into account in rural, urban and national development
strategies, as well as sectoral development strategies for infrastructure and services.
If countries plan for it and pursue appropriate policies, population changes like
urbanization are more likely to become positive drivers of economic, social and
environmental development.
(v) Fifth, the transition towards more sustainable development pathways and the green
economy will affect companies and households. It is important that countries
provide adequate social protection to the most vulnerable populations to fight
poverty. The fight against poverty is a moral obligation and imperative, but it is also
an integral part of promote more sustainable development. The reduction in poverty
is typically associated with better health and education, larger economic

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 opportunities and incomes, and lower fertility levels. Poverty cripples the choices
and opportunities of individuals, and poverty can reinforce unsustainable behavior
of individuals.

In conclusion, promoting human well-being and raising living standards are not only ends of
development but are also important means of addressing population dynamics and promoting
more sustainable development pathways. Policies that promote human development and
address population dynamics, along the five priority areas outlined above, together with
policies that encourage higher, sustained and environmentally sustainable economic growth,
must constitute the corner stones of sustainable development strategies. To gauge progress in
the implementation of sustainable development agendas, it is therefore necessary to examine
progress also in the area of population issues.

Three key indicators and targets can serve this purpose: a) a dedicated discussion of current
and projected population dynamics in national development strategies in all poverty reduction
strategies mandated by International Financial Institutions, common country assessments
conducted in the context of United Nations Development Assistance Frameworks, and national
development plans prepared at the initiatives of countries themselves; b) a sustained effort to
collect and analyze population data through censuses or population registration systems, with
the objective to conduct censuses in all countries every ten years and/ or establish a population
registration system in all countries; and c) a clear strategy to ensure universal access to sexual
and reproductive health care and family planning to ensure equitable access in all countries and
entirely eliminate unmet need for family planning.

In the context of its work programme, UNFPA is already supporting countries in these efforts
and tracking their progress. Countries should work to integrate population dynamics in regional
development strategies, particularly in preparing for rapid urbanization, as well as sectoral
development strategies, from health and education to infrastructure and beyond. Yet this
agenda needs the support of partner organizations for full implementation and monitoring.
With such support and partnership, bringing population dynamics back into the discussion can
help to chart a path to true sustainable development.