Why is populism suddenly all the rage?

| World news | The Guardian 21/11/18 9'50

Why is populism suddenly all the

rage?
In 1998, about 300 Guardian articles mentioned populism. In
2016, 2,000 did. What happened? • Revealed: how populists
tripled their vote over 20 years

Matthijs Rooduijn
Tue 20 Nov 2018
14.00 GMT

Viktor Orbán, the Hungarian prime minister and leader of the far-right Fidesz party. Composite: The
Guardian Design Team

Populism is sexy. Particularly since 2016 – the year of the Brexit referendum and the election
of Donald Trump – it seems as if journalists just cannot get enough of it. In 1998, the
Guardian published about 300 articles that included the terms “populism” or “populist”. In
2015, these terms were used in about 1,000 articles, and one year later this number had
doubled to almost 2,000.

The increasing popularity of the term is no coincidence. Populist parties have tripled their
vote in Europe over the past 20 years. They are in government in 11 European countries.
More than a quarter of Europeans voted populist in their last elections.

Why? There is no easy answer to this question. Recent academic studies have shown that
throughout the western world populist attitudes are widespread. Many citizens take the

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Why is populism suddenly all the rage? | World news | The Guardian 21/11/18 9'50

view that ordinary, virtuous people have been betrayed, neglected or exploited by a corrupt
elite. Although citizens with strong populist attitudes do not necessarily vote for a populist
party (in fact, many of them don’t), there are various circumstances that increase the
likelihood that they will do so.

Firstly, when a society is more individualised, and voters are more independent and
emancipated, electoral volatility tends to be higher. Such circumstances will enhance the
probability that populist attitudes are translated into real populist votes. After all, without a
certain degree of detachment from traditional mainstream parties, voters are unlikely to
actually switch away from them and turn to populists.

Secondly, there is a fertile breeding ground for populists when mainstream left and right
parties converge ideologically. If this is the case, many voters will be susceptible to the
message that mainstream political parties are all one and the same. A good example is how
in France the Front National (now National Rally) merged the names of the centre-right UMP
and the centre-left PS into “UMPS” in its campaigning – the political equivalent of
Tweedledum and Tweedledee. Moreover, when mainstream parties converge, they leave
fallow a lot of ideological space, and therefore tend to be unresponsive to the worries of
more radical citizens.

Thirdly, crises can make the activation of populist attitudes more likely. A financial crisis,
for instance, makes mainstream parties highly vulnerable to the critique that “the
established elite” has messed things up. The European refugee crisis provided populist
parties with ammunition for the argument that governing elites had opened up the borders
and were unable to deal with the inflow of immigrants.

Fourthly, widespread corruption plays straight into populist hands. If it turns out that
political parties are highly corrupt, the populist claim that people are exploited by an
inward-looking, condescending elite will find wide public support. This is exactly what
happened in Italy in the early 1990s, for instance. As a result of a nationwide judicial
investigation into bribery, nepotism and other forms of corruption, the whole party system
was turned upside down. This cleared the way for the rise of populists such as Silvio
Berlusconi and the League.

Yet a fertile breeding ground for populism is not enough for populism to thrive. There
should also be a credible populist challenger who offers an attractive alternative to the
existing parties. In order to be perceived as an attractive alternative, a challenger party
needs to express a message that appeals to large numbers of discontented voters. Moreover,
what also helps is an alluring leader and, especially in the long term, a well-functioning
party organisation.

The changing media environment also plays a role. Because of dwindling subscription rates,
traditional media increasingly focus on topics they expect to sell well, such as scandals and
conflict, fuelling the sense of crisis that populists can draw on.

Of course, sociopolitical contexts vary by geography – and so does populism. In northern

Europe, successful populists are mainly radical rightwing populists. Parties such as the

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Why is populism suddenly all the rage? | World news | The Guardian 21/11/18 9'50

Danish People’s party, the Finns and the Sweden Democrats all combine a xenophobic
nationalist outlook with a populist message. Leftwing populism is much less widespread in
this part of Europe – possibly because the strong economies and generous welfare systems
of the Nordic countries make a radical leftwing populist message less pressing.

Southern Europe looks different. In countries such as Spain, Italy and Greece, populism is
not exclusively a radical rightwing phenomenon. This might well be due to the fact that the
financial crisis hit these countries harder than most. They therefore form the perfect setting
for a leftwing populist message. Parties like Podemos in Spain and Syriza in Greece combine
their populism with a radical leftwing main ideology. In Italy, the Five Star Movement
combines populism with a diverse array of ideological stances.

Western Europe differs from southern Europe in that radical leftwing populists are less
successful. This is most likely due to the fact that countries in this part of Europe have much
stronger economies than their southern European neighbours. The exception that proves
the rule is Ireland. This country did not perform very well economically and harbours a
relatively successful radical leftwing populist party: Sinn Féin.

The landscapes in central and eastern European countries look very different. Here,
populism generally did not bob up at the fringes of the political spectrum, but in the centre.
Parties such as Fidesz in Hungary and Law and Justice in Poland started their political lives
as mainstream parties. Only later on did they also embrace populism and, even later,
nativism. It is probably because these do not have radical heritages – which could
potentially thwart their “respectable” images – that they have managed to become the
leading parties in their respective countries.

Despite all these geographical differences, throughout Europe the breeding ground for
populism has become increasingly fertile. And populist parties are ever more capable of
reaping the rewards.

Matthijs Rooduijn is a political sociologist at the University of Amsterdam

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Topics

Europe
The new populism
The far right
European Union
Donald Trump
Brexit
Hungary
Viktor Orbán
analysis

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