Interest rate The term structure of interest rates – known as the yield curve – is the relationship between interest rates or bond yields that differ in their length of time to maturity. The term structure reflects investor expectations about future changes in interest rates and their assessment of monetary policy conditions. The term structure of interest rates is constructed by graphing the YTM and respective maturity dates of benchmark fixed-income securities. Because U.S. Treasuries are considered risk-free, their yields are often used as the benchmark. The term structure of interest rates is graphed as though each coupon payment of a noncallable fixed- income security were a zero-coupon bond that matured on the coupon payment date. If the normal yield curve changes shapes, it can be a signal to investors that it’s time to update their economic outlook. Normal Yield Curve A normal yield curve forms during normal market conditions, when investors believe there won’t be any significant changes to the economy (e.g., interest rates) and the economy will continue to grow at a normal rate. During these conditions, investors expect higher yields for bonds with long-term maturities than those with short-term maturities. This is a normal expectation since short-term instruments generally carry less risk. The further out a bond’s maturity, the more time and uncertainty investors face before being paid back the principal. As current interest rates increase, a bond’s price will decrease and its yield will increase. Flat Yield Curve A flat yield curve indicates that the market is sending mixed signals to investors, who are interpreting interest rate movements in various ways. In these situations, it’s hard for the market to determine whether interest rates will move significantly in either direction. A flat yield curve generally happens when the market is making a transition between normal and inverted curves. When the yield curve is flat, you can maximize your risk/return tradeoff by choosing fixed-income securities with the least risk, or highest credit quality. Yield to Maturity (YTM) YTM is the total return which is derived from holding it till maturity. Yield to maturity is considered a long-term bond yield, but is expressed as an annual rate. In other words, it is the internal rate of return (IRR) of an investment in a bond if the investor holds the bond until maturity and if all payments are made as scheduled. In other words, it factors in the time value of money, whereas a simple current yield calculation does not. As such, it is often considered a more thorough means of calculating the return from a bond. Formula of YTM . Example We defined yield to maturity as the rate which discounts the bond's future cash flows (coupons and par value) such that their present value equals the bond's market price. Company D's bond has a par value of $1,000; semiannual coupon of $40 (=8%/2×$1,000) and price of $950.
We get the following relationship after plugging in the