Math 150 Ch7 Lectureslides

Section 7.
Confidence Intervals for Population

Proportions
© 2012 Pearson Education, Inc. All rights reserved. 1 of 83

Section 7.2 Objectives
• Find a point estimate for the population proportion

• Construct a confidence interval for a population
proportion
• Determine the minimum sample size required when
estimating a population proportion

Point Estimate for Population p
Population Proportion
• The probability of success in a single trial of a
binomial experiment.
• Denoted by p
Point Estimate for p
• The proportion of successes in a sample.
• Denoted by
x number of successes in sample
 pˆ= n= sample size
 read as “p hat”
Point Estimate for Population p
Estimate Population with Sample

Parameter… Statistic
Proportion: p p̂
Point Estimate for q, the population proportion of

failures
• Denoted by qˆ= 1 − pˆ
• Read as “q hat”

Example: Point Estimate for p
In a survey of 1000 U.S. adults, 662 said that it is

acceptable to check personal e-mail while at work. Find
a point estimate for the population proportion of U.S.
adults who say it is acceptable to check personal e-mail
while at work. (Adapted from Liberty Mutual)
Solution: n = 1000 and x = 662

x 662
pˆ= = = 0.662
= 66.2%
n 1000

Confidence Intervals for p
A c-confidence interval for a population proportion p

pq
ˆˆ
• pˆ − E < p < pˆ + E where E =
Zα 2 n
•The probability that the confidence interval contains p is c.

Constructing Confidence Intervals for p
In Words In Symbols
1. Identify the sample statistics n
and x.
2. Find the point estimate p̂.
x
pˆ =
n
3. Verify that the sampling
distribution of p̂ can be npˆ ≥ 5, nqˆ ≥ 5
approximated by a normal
distribution.
4. Find the critical value zc that Use the Standard
corresponds to the given level of Normal Table or
confidence c. technology.
Constructing Confidence Intervals for p
In Words In Symbols
pq
ˆˆ
5. Find the margin of error E. E = Zα 2 n
6. Find the left and right Left endpoint: p̂ − E

endpoints and form the Right endpoint: p̂ + E
confidence interval. Interval:
pˆ − E < p < pˆ + E

Example: Confidence Interval for p
In a survey of 1000 U.S. adults, 662 said that it is

acceptable to check personal e-mail while at work.
Construct a 95% confidence interval for the population
proportion of U.S. adults who say that it is acceptable to
check personal e-mail while at work.
Solution: Recall pˆ = 0.662
qˆ =1 − pˆ =1 − 0.662 =
0.338

Solution: Confidence Interval for p
• Verify the sampling distribution of p̂ can be

approximated by the normal distribution
npˆ = 1000 ⋅ 0.662 =662 > 5
nqˆ = 1000 ⋅ 0.338 =338 > 5
• Margin of error:
pq
ˆ ˆ (0.662) ⋅ (0.338)
=E Z=
α 2 1.96 ≈ 0.029
n 1000

• Confidence interval:
Left Endpoint: Right Endpoint:
pˆ − E pˆ + E
≈ 0.662 − 0.029 ≈ 0.662 + 0.029
= 0.633 = 0.691
0.633 < p < 0.691

• 0.633 < p < 0.691

Point estimate
p̂ − E p̂ p̂ + E
With 95% confidence, you can say that the population

proportion of U.S. adults who say that it is acceptable
to check personal e-mail while at work is between
63.3% and 69.1%.

Determining Sample Size
� is known,
• When 𝒑
2
 Zα 2  pq
ˆˆ
n= 2
E
• Where 𝑍𝛼⁄2 is the value associated with the desired
confidence level, and E is the desired margin of error.
Round up to the next integer.
13
Sample Size for Estimating the
Population Proportion
� is unknown, we use
• When 𝒑
2
 Zα 2  0.25
n= 2
E
14
Example: Sample Size
You are running a political campaign and wish to
estimate, with 95% confidence, the population proportion
of registered voters who will vote for your candidate.
Your estimate must be accurate within 3% of the true
population proportion. Find the minimum sample size
needed if
1. no preliminary estimate is available.
Solution:
Because you do not have a preliminary estimate
for pˆ , use pˆ = 0.5 and qˆ = 0.5.

Solution: Sample Size
• c = 0.95 zα/2 = 1.96 E = 0.03
[1.96]
2
 Zα 2  pq
ˆˆ 2
(0.5)(0.5)
n = 2 2
≈ 1067.11
E (0.03)
Round up to the nearest whole number.
With no preliminary estimate, the minimum sample

size should be at least 1068 voters.

You are running a political campaign and wish to
estimate, with 95% confidence, the population
proportion of registered voters who will vote for your
candidate. Your estimate must be accurate within 3% of
the true population proportion. Find the minimum
sample size needed if
2. a preliminary estimate gives pˆ = 0.31.
Solution:
Use the preliminary estimate pˆ = 0.31
qˆ =1 − pˆ =1 − 0.31 =
0.69
• c = 0.95 zα/2 = 1.96 E = 0.03
[1.96]
2
 Zα 2  pq
ˆˆ 2
(0.31)(0.69)
n = ≈ 913.02
E2 (0.03) 2
Round up to the nearest whole number.
With a preliminary estimate of pˆ = 0.31, the

minimum sample size should be at least 914 voters.
Need a larger sample size if no preliminary estimate
is available.
Section 7.3
Confidence Intervals for the Mean

(𝝈 known)

• Find a point estimate and a margin of error

• Construct and interpret confidence intervals for the
population mean
• Determine the minimum sample size required when
estimating μ

Point Estimate for Population μ
Point Estimate
• A single value estimate for a population parameter
• Most unbiased point estimate of the population mean
μ is the sample mean x

Mean: μ x

Example: Point Estimate for Population μ
A social networking website allows its users to add

friends, send messages, and update their personal
profiles. The following represents a random sample of
the number of friends for 40 users of the website. Find a
point estimate of the population mean, µ. (Source:
Facebook)
140 105 130 97 80 165 232 110 214 201 122

98 65 88 154 133 121 82 130 211 153 114
58 77 51 247 236 109 126 132 125 149 122
74 59 218 192 90 117 105
Solution: Point Estimate for Population μ
The sample mean of the data is

Σx 5232
=
x = = 130.8
n 40
Your point estimate for the mean number of friends for

all users of the website is 130.8 friends.

Interval Estimate
Interval estimate
• An interval, or range of values, used to estimate a
population parameter.
Left endpoint Point estimate Right endpoint
115.1 x = 130.8 146.5
( )
115 120 125 130 135 140 145 150
Interval estimate
How confident do we want to be that the interval estimate

contains the population mean μ?

Level of Confidence
Level of confidence (C-Level)
• The probability that the interval estimate contains the
population parameter. c is the area under the
C-level
standard normal curve
between the critical values.
𝛼/2 ∝/2
z
–𝑧 z=0 zc
Use the Standard
Critical values Normal Table to find the
corresponding z-scores.
The remaining area in the tails is 1 – c .
Level of Confidence
• If the level of confidence is 90%, this means that we

are 90% confident that the interval contains the
population mean μ.
C-Level = 0.90
α /2= 0.05 α/2= 0.05
z
–zα/2−=zc – z=0 Zzα/2
c =
1.645 1.645
The corresponding z-scores are ±1.645.

Sampling Error
Sampling error
• The difference between the point estimate and the
actual population parameter value.
• For μ:
 the sampling error is the difference x – μ
 μ is generally unknown
 x varies from sample to sample

Margin of Error
Margin of error
• The greatest possible distance between the point
estimate and the value of the parameter it is
estimating for a given level of confidence, c.
• Denoted by E.
E = zα /2
σ When n ≥ 30, the sample
n standard deviation, s, can
be used for σ.
• Sometimes called the maximum error of estimate or

error tolerance.
Example: Finding the Margin of Error
Use the social networking website data and a 95%

confidence level to find the margin of error for the
mean number of friends for all users of the website.
Assume the sample standard deviation is about 53.0.

Solution: Finding the Margin of Error
• First find the critical values
0.95
0.025 0.025
z
–zα/2 =−–1.96
zc z=0 zα/2zc = 1.96
95% of the area under the standard normal curve falls
within 1.96 standard deviations of the mean. (You
can approximate the distribution of the sample means
with a normal curve by the Central Limit Theorem,
because n = 40 ≥ 30.)
Solution: Finding the Margin of Error
σ s You don’t know σ, but

E = Zα 2 ≈ Zα 2 since n ≥ 30, you can
n n use s in place of σ.
53.0
≈ 1.96 ⋅
40
≈ 16.4
You are 95% confident that the margin of error for the
population mean is about 16.4 friends.

Confidence Intervals for the Population
Mean
A c-confidence interval for the population mean μ
σ
• x−E<µ < x+E where E =zc
n
• The probability that the confidence interval contains μ

is c.

Constructing Confidence Intervals for μ
Finding a Confidence Interval for a Population Mean
(n ≥ 30 or σ known with a normally distributed population)
In Words In Symbols
1. Find the sample statistics n and Σx
x=
x. n
2. Specify σ, if known.
Otherwise, if n ≥ 30, find the s=
Σ(x − x ) 2
sample standard deviation s and n −1
use it as an estimate for σ.

Constructing Confidence Intervals for μ
In Words In Symbols
3. Find the critical value zc that Use the Standard
corresponds to the given Normal Table or
level of confidence. technology.
4. Find the margin of error E. E=Z
σ
α 2
n
5. Find the left and right Left endpoint: x − E
endpoints and form the Right endpoint: x + E
x−E<µ < x+E

Example: Constructing a Confidence
Interval
Construct a 95% confidence interval for the mean
number of friends for all users of the website.
Solution: Recall x = 130.8 and E ≈ 16.4

x −E x+E
≈ 130.8 − 16.4 ≈ 130.8 + 16.4
= 114.4 = 147.2
114.4 < μ < 147.2
Solution: Constructing a Confidence
Interval
114.4 < μ < 147.2

mean number of friends is between 114.4 and 147.2.

Interval σ Known
A college admissions director wishes to estimate the
mean age of all students currently enrolled. In a random
sample of 20 students, the mean age is found to be 22.9
years. From past studies, the standard deviation is
known to be 1.5 years, and the population is normally
distributed. Construct a 90% confidence interval of the
population mean age.

Interval σ Known
α = 0.90
α/2 = 0.05 α/2 = 0.05
z
−zc
–zc = –1.645 z=0 zc =zc1.645
zc = 1.645

Interval σ Known
σ 1.5
=E Z=
α 2 1.645 ⋅ ≈ 0.6
n 20
x −E x+E
≈ 22.9 − 0.6 ≈ 22.9 + 0.6
= 22.3 = 23.5
22.3 < μ < 23.5
Interval σ Known
22.3 < μ < 23.5
Point estimate
22.3 22.9 23.5
( • )
x−E x x+E
With 90% confidence, you can say that the mean age
of all the students is between 22.3 and 23.5 years.

Interpreting the Results
• μ is a fixed number. It is either in the confidence

interval or not.
• Incorrect: “There is a 90% probability that the actual
mean is in the interval (22.3, 23.5).”
• Correct: “If a large number of samples is collected
and a confidence interval is created for each sample,
approximately 90% of these intervals will contain μ.

Interpreting the Results
The horizontal segments

represent 90% confidence
intervals for different
samples of the same size.
In the long run, 9 of every
10 such intervals will
contain μ. μ

Sample Size
• Given a c-confidence level and a margin of error E,

the minimum sample size n needed to estimate the
population mean µ is
 zc σ 
2
n= 
 E 
• If σ is unknown, you can estimate it using s, provided
you have a preliminary sample with at least 30
members.

You want to estimate the mean number of friends for all

users of the website. How many users must be included
in the sample if you want to be 95% confident that the
sample mean is within seven friends of the population
mean? Assume the sample standard deviation is about
53.0.


0.95
0.025 0.025
z
–zc = −–1.96
zc z=0 zczc= 1.96
zc = 1.96

zc = 1.96 σ ≈ s ≈ 53.0 E=7
 zcσ   1.96 ⋅ 53.0 

2 2
n=  ≈  ≈ 220.23
 E   7 
When necessary, round up to obtain a whole number.
You should include at least 221 users in your sample.

Section 7.3 Summary
• Found a point estimate and a margin of error

• Constructed and interpreted confidence intervals for
the population mean
• Determined the minimum sample size required when
estimating μ

Section 7.4
Confidence Intervals for the Mean

(𝝈 unknown)

• Interpret the t-distribution and use a t-distribution

table
• Construct confidence intervals when n < 30, the
population is normally distributed, and σ is unknown

The t-Distribution
• When the population standard deviation is unknown,

the sample size is less than 30, and the random
variable x is approximately normally distributed, it
follows a t-distribution.
x−µ
t=
s
n
• Critical values of t are denoted by tc.

Properties of the t-Distribution
1. The t-distribution is bell shaped and symmetric
about the mean.
2. The t-distribution is a family of curves, each
determined by a parameter called the degrees of
freedom. The degrees of freedom are the number
of free choices left after a sample statistic such as x
is calculated. When you use a t-distribution to
estimate a population mean, the degrees of freedom
are equal to one less than the sample size.
 d.f. = n – 1 Degrees of freedom

Properties of the t-Distribution
3. The total area under a t-curve is 1 or 100%.
4. The mean, median, and mode of the t-distribution are
equal to zero.
5. As the degrees of freedom increase, the t-distribution
approaches the normal distribution. After 30 d.f., the t-
distribution is very close to the standard normal z-
distribution.
The tails in the t-
distribution are “thicker”
d.f. = 2 than those in the standard
d.f. = 5 normal distribution.
t
0
Standard normal curve
Example: Critical Values of t
Find the critical value tc for a 95% confidence level

when the sample size is 15.
Solution: d.f. = n – 1 = 15 – 1 = 14
Table 5: t-Distribution
tc = 2.145

Solution: Critical Values of t
95% of the area under the t-distribution curve with 14

degrees of freedom lies between t = ±2.145.
c = 0.95
t
–tc = –2.145 tc = 2.145

Confidence Intervals for the Population
Mean
A c-confidence interval for the population mean μ
s
• x − E < µ < x + E where E = tc
n
• The probability that the confidence interval contains μ

is c.

Confidence Intervals and t-Distributions
In Words In Symbols
1. Identify the sample Σx ∑(x − x ) 2
x= s=
statistics n, x , and s. n n −1
2. Identify the degrees of d.f. = n – 1

freedom, the level of
confidence c, and the
critical value tc.
3. Find the margin of error E. E = tc

s
n

Confidence Intervals and t-Distributions
In Words In Symbols
4. Find the left and right Left endpoint: x − E
endpoints and form the Right endpoint: x + E
x−E<µ < x+E

Interval
You randomly select 16 coffee shops and measure the
temperature of the coffee sold at each. The sample mean
temperature is 162.0ºF with a sample standard deviation
of 10.0ºF. Find the 95% confidence interval for the
population mean temperature. Assume the temperatures
are approximately normally distributed.
Solution:
Use the t-distribution (n < 30, σ is unknown,
temperatures are approximately normally distributed).

Interval
• n =16, x = 162.0 s = 10.0 c = 0.95
• df = n – 1 = 16 – 1 = 15
• Critical Value Table 5: t-Distribution
tc = 2.131

Interval
=
s
E tc= 2.131 ⋅
10
≈ 5.3
n 16
x −E x+E
≈ 162 − 5.3 ≈ 162 + 5.3
= 156.7 = 167.3
156.7 < μ < 167.3
Interval
• 156.7 < μ < 167.3
Point estimate
156.7 162.0 167.3
( • )
x−E x x+E

mean temperature of coffee sold is between 156.7ºF
and 167.3ºF.

Normal or t-Distribution?
Is n ≥ 30? Yes Use the normal distribution with
E = zc
σ
No
n
Is the population normally, If σ is unknown, use s instead.
or approximately normally,
No
distributed? Cannot use the normal
distribution or the t-distribution.
Yes
Is σ known? Yes Use the normal distribution with

No
E = zc
σ .
n
Use the t-distribution with
E = tc
s
n
and n – 1 degrees of freedom.
Example: Normal or t-Distribution?
You randomly select 25 newly constructed houses. The
sample mean construction cost is $181,000 and the
population standard deviation is $28,000. Assuming
construction costs are normally distributed, should you
use the normal distribution, the t-distribution, or neither
to construct a 95% confidence interval for the
population mean construction cost?
Solution:
Use the normal distribution (the population is
normally distributed and the population standard
deviation is known)
Section 7.3 Summary
• Interpreted the t-distribution and used a t-distribution

table
• Constructed confidence intervals when n < 30, the
population is normally distributed, and σ is unknown

Section 7.3 Summary
• Found a point estimate for the population proportion

• Constructed a confidence interval for a population
proportion
• Determined the minimum sample size required when
estimating a population proportion

Section 7.5
Confidence Intervals for Variance

and Standard Deviation

• Interpret the chi-square distribution and use a

chi-square distribution table
• Use the chi-square distribution to construct a
confidence interval for the variance and standard
deviation

The Chi-Square Distribution
• The point estimate for σ2 is s2

• The point estimate for σ is s
• s2 is the most unbiased estimate for σ2

Variance: σ2 s2
Standard deviation: σ s

The Chi-Square Distribution
• You can use the chi-square distribution to construct a

deviation.
• If the random variable x has a normal distribution,
then the distribution of
(n − 1)s 2
χ =2
σ2
forms a chi-square distribution for samples of any
size n > 1.

Properties of The Chi-Square Distribution
1. All chi-square values χ2 are greater than or equal to zero.

2. The chi-square distribution is a family of curves, each
determined by the degrees of freedom. To form a
confidence interval for σ2, use the χ2-distribution with
degrees of freedom equal to one less than the sample
size.
• d.f. = n – 1 Degrees of freedom
3. The area under each curve of the chi-square distribution
equals one.

Properties of The Chi-Square Distribution
4. Chi-square distributions are positively skewed.
Chi-square Distributions
Critical Values for χ2
• There are two critical values for each level of
confidence.
• The value χ2R represents the right-tail critical value
• The value χ2L represents the left-tail critical value.
1− c c The area between

2 1− c the left and right
2 critical values is c.
χ2
χ L2 χ R2

Example: Finding Critical Values for χ2
Find the critical values χ R2 and χ L2 for a 95% confidence

interval when the sample size is 18.
Solution:
• d.f. = n – 1 = 18 – 1 = 17 d.f.
• Each area in the table represents the region under the
chi-square curve to the right of the critical value.
1 − c 1 − 0.95
• Area to the right of χ2 R= 2
=
2
= 0.025
1 + c 1 + 0.95
• Area to the right of χ2 L= 2
=
2
= 0.975

Solution: Finding Critical Values for χ2
Table 6: χ2-Distribution
χ L2 = 7.564 χ R2 = 30.191
95% of the area under the curve lies between 7.564 and
30.191.
Confidence Intervals for σ2 and σ
Confidence Interval for σ2:

(n − 1)s 2 (n − 1)s 2
• <σ2 <
χ R2 χ L2
Confidence Interval for σ:
(n − 1)s 2 (n − 1)s 2
• <σ <
χ R2 χ L2
• The probability that the confidence intervals contain

σ2 or σ is c.

In Words In Symbols
1. Verify that the population has a
normal distribution.
2. Identify the sample statistic n and d.f. = n – 1
the degrees of freedom.
s2 =
∑( x − x ) 2
3. Find the point estimate s2. n −1
4. Find the critical values χ2R and χ2L
that correspond to the given level Use Table 6 in
of confidence c. Appendix B.

In Words In Symbols
5. Find the left and right
(n − 1)s 2 (n − 1)s 2
endpoints and form the <σ2 <
χ R2 χ L2
confidence interval for the
population variance.
6. Find the confidence
interval for the population (n − 1)s 2 (n − 1)s 2
standard deviation by <σ <
χ R2 χ L2
taking the square root of
each endpoint.

Interval
You randomly select and weigh 30 samples of an allergy
medicine. The sample standard deviation is 1.20
milligrams. Assuming the weights are normally
distributed, construct 99% confidence intervals for the
population variance and standard deviation.
Solution:
• d.f. = n – 1 = 30 – 1 = 29 d.f.

Interval
1 − c 1 − 0.99
• Area to the right of χ2R= 2
=
2
= 0.005
1 + c 1 + 0.99
• Area to the right of χ2L= 2
=
2
= 0.995
• The critical values are

χ2R = 52.336 and χ2L = 13.121

Interval
Confidence Interval for σ2:
(n − 1)s 2 (30 − 1)(1.20) 2
Left endpoint: = ≈ 0.80
χ R2 52.336
(n − 1)s 2
(30 − 1)(1.20) 2
Right endpoint: = ≈ 3.18
χL2 13.121
0.80 < σ2 < 3.18

variance is between 0.80 and 3.18.
Interval
Confidence Interval for σ :
(n − 1)s 2 (n − 1)s 2
<σ <
χR
2
χL
2
(30 − 1)(1.20) 2 (30 − 1)(1.20) 2

<σ <
52.336 13.121
0.89 < σ < 1.78

standard deviation is between 0.89 and 1.78 milligrams.
Section 7.5 Summary
• Interpreted the chi-square distribution and used a

chi-square distribution table
• Used the chi-square distribution to construct a
deviation

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Section 7.

Confidence Intervals for Population

© 2012 Pearson Education, Inc. All rights reserved. 1 of 83

• Find a point estimate for the population proportion

© 2012 Pearson Education, Inc. All rights reserved. 2 of 83

Estimate Population with Sample

Point Estimate for q, the population proportion of

© 2012 Pearson Education, Inc. All rights reserved. 4 of 83

In a survey of 1000 U.S. adults, 662 said that it is

Solution: n = 1000 and x = 662

© 2012 Pearson Education, Inc. All rights reserved. 5 of 83

A c-confidence interval for a population proportion p

•The probability that the confidence interval contains p is c.

© 2012 Pearson Education, Inc. All rights reserved. 6 of 83

6. Find the left and right Left endpoint: p̂ − E

© 2012 Pearson Education, Inc. All rights reserved. 8 of 83

In a survey of 1000 U.S. adults, 662 said that it is

© 2012 Pearson Education, Inc. All rights reserved. 9 of 83

• Verify the sampling distribution of p̂ can be

© 2012 Pearson Education, Inc. All rights reserved. 10 of 83

© 2012 Pearson Education, Inc. All rights reserved. 11 of 83

• 0.633 < p < 0.691

With 95% confidence, you can say that the population

© 2012 Pearson Education, Inc. All rights reserved. 12 of 83

© 2012 Pearson Education, Inc. All rights reserved. 15 of 83

• c = 0.95 zα/2 = 1.96 E = 0.03

Round up to the nearest whole number.

With no preliminary estimate, the minimum sample

© 2012 Pearson Education, Inc. All rights reserved. 16 of 83

• c = 0.95 zα/2 = 1.96 E = 0.03

Round up to the nearest whole number.

With a preliminary estimate of pˆ = 0.31, the

Confidence Intervals for the Mean

© 2012 Pearson Education, Inc. All rights reserved. 19 of 83

• Find a point estimate and a margin of error

© 2012 Pearson Education, Inc. All rights reserved. 20 of 83

Estimate Population with Sample

© 2012 Pearson Education, Inc. All rights reserved. 21 of 83

A social networking website allows its users to add

140 105 130 97 80 165 232 110 214 201 122

The sample mean of the data is

Your point estimate for the mean number of friends for

© 2012 Pearson Education, Inc. All rights reserved. 23 of 83

How confident do we want to be that the interval estimate

© 2012 Pearson Education, Inc. All rights reserved. 24 of 83

• If the level of confidence is 90%, this means that we

α /2= 0.05 α/2= 0.05

© 2012 Pearson Education, Inc. All rights reserved. 26 of 83

© 2012 Pearson Education, Inc. All rights reserved. 27 of 83

• Sometimes called the maximum error of estimate or

Use the social networking website data and a 95%

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σ s You don’t know σ, but

© 2012 Pearson Education, Inc. All rights reserved. 31 of 83

• The probability that the confidence interval contains μ

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© 2012 Pearson Education, Inc. All rights reserved. 33 of 83

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Solution: Recall x = 130.8 and E ≈ 16.4

114.4 < μ < 147.2

With 95% confidence, you can say that the population

© 2012 Pearson Education, Inc. All rights reserved. 36 of 83

© 2012 Pearson Education, Inc. All rights reserved. 37 of 83

α/2 = 0.05 α/2 = 0.05