1 – The Athletic
Sam Vecenie’s NBA Draft Big Board update: Zion
Williamson clearly No. 1
https://theathletic.com/694201/2018/12/05/the-athletics-2019-nba-draft-big-board-zion-williamson-moves-up-to-no-1/ 1/23
12/5/2018 Sam Vecenie’s NBA Draft Big Board update: Zion Williamson clearly No. 1 – The Athletic
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12/5/2018 Sam Vecenie’s NBA Draft Big Board update: Zion Williamson clearly No. 1 – The Athletic
H I h d f d
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12/5/2018 Sam Vecenie’s NBA Draft Big Board update: Zion Williamson clearly No. 1 – The Athletic
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12/5/2018 Sam Vecenie’s NBA Draft Big Board update: Zion Williamson clearly No. 1 – The Athletic
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12/5/2018 Sam Vecenie’s NBA Draft Big Board update: Zion Williamson clearly No. 1 – The Athletic
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12/5/2018 Sam Vecenie’s NBA Draft Big Board update: Zion Williamson clearly No. 1 – The Athletic
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12/5/2018 Sam Vecenie’s NBA Draft Big Board update: Zion Williamson clearly No. 1 – The Athletic
Sam Vecenie (/author/sam-vecenie/) covers the NBA Draft, college basketball and the NBA for The Athletic. His
podcast, the Game Theory Podcast, is regularly ranked among the top podcasts on iTunes. Previously, he worked for
CBS Sports, SB Nation, Sporting News, and Vice. Follow Sam on Twitter @Sam_Vecenie
(https://twitter.com/Sam_Vecenie).
55 COMMENTS
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12/5/2018 Sam Vecenie’s NBA Draft Big Board update: Zion Williamson clearly No. 1 – The Athletic
Add a comment...
Noah B. 2h ago
Tyler Herro?
@Noah B. Tyler Herro would have been in the 60-70 range. But as noted in the procedural notes,
I do not rank freshmen beyond 50.
Neeraj R. 2h ago
Kevin O. 2h ago
Rhonda D. 1h ago
@Rhonda D. There may be some chart errors. It takes a village to build this thing out lol.
https://theathletic.com/694201/2018/12/05/the-athletics-2019-nba-draft-big-board-zion-williamson-moves-up-to-no-1/ 9/23
12/5/2018 Sam Vecenie’s NBA Draft Big Board update: Zion Williamson clearly No. 1 – The Athletic
Jonathon W. 1h ago
@Jonathon W. Yeah, I think it's worth mentioning that it's still very early in the season. Grimes
has played just 7 games so far, and this isn't our only sample of him in terms of evaluation. He
dominated this summer at the U18 where he won MVP (over Coby White), was terrific at all of
McDonald's, Jordan Brand, and Hoop Summit, and was considered a more highly-ranked
prospect based off of his AAU/HS career than both Dort and White. Kansas guys tend to take
some time. Still, I've slid him from No. 6 to No. 12 here to reflect that it hasn't been smooth sailing
so far.
Ray S. 1h ago
Max R. 1h ago
What are your thoughts on Dort? I really wanted him to go to MSU and loved him as a recruit. Seems
like he has a more well rounded game than I had thought coming into college.
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12/5/2018 Sam Vecenie’s NBA Draft Big Board update: Zion Williamson clearly No. 1 – The Athletic
Claiborne S. 1h ago
@Claiborne S. Marcus Bingham is probably the one to watch, but he's at least 2 years out from
having a chance to go pro. He's rail thin right now (as in he is 6'10 but under 200 pounds thin)
but has a really smooth shooting stroke and a 7'4 wingspan.
Cody M. 1h ago
What type of player do you see Cassius Winston is at the next level?
@Cody M. I'll answer Claiborne's question here as well: Cassius Winston and Josh Langford were
within the first 10 to miss the board (Langford particularly was No. 103). Winston's game is being
held back by defense, currently. It's hard to see him as anything other than a defensive liability in
the NBA. due to his size and inability to really bother even college guards right now. Still, his of-
fensive game is obviously superb.
Langford: There's an athleticism question there, in terms of just how good he'll get to in terms of
being able to defend at the next level. Also, his handle isn't particularly refined, and he's strug-
gled to finish a bit against bigger, stout defensive teams. But we're also at the point now where
he's a 40%+ 3-point shooter with size over a 2+ year sample of college hoops, and he's improved
a ton in terms of being able to create for himself. I'd bet that he'll be on here at some point this
year.
Joshua W. 1h ago
What do you think the ceiling is for Edwards? Could he sneak into the 1st round with a better last 2/3
of the season than what he has shown so far (a high volume scorer and shooter with defensive
shortcomings?)
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12/5/2018 Sam Vecenie’s NBA Draft Big Board update: Zion Williamson clearly No. 1 – The Athletic
@Joshua W. (assuming this is Carsen Edwards). Yeah, I think end of the first is a reasonable ceil-
ing. Totally in that mix right now. One big thing with Carsen, though: with the increased distribu-
tion responsibilities has come a somewhat substantial turnover increase. (up to 4 per game as of
publication). I'd like to see that number drop as he gets more used to his role this year.
Ryan C. 1h ago
@Ryan C. if I did sneak it in, it was unconsciously haha. But yes, I'm a pretty big Marvel fan.
Steve S. 1h ago
Your missing Daulton Hommes Point Loma Nazarene U he is top 20. Check him out
@Steve S. I'm familiar with Hommes. I'm pretty skeptical of his handle and lateral quickness right
now. There's obviously a lot there in terms of his ability to score the basketball and shoot it from
distance at 6-8. I think his best bet is to grad transfer up to a place like Gonzaga or Washington
(he's from Washington state originally) and show that he can really ball out at a higher level.
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12/5/2018 Sam Vecenie’s NBA Draft Big Board update: Zion Williamson clearly No. 1 – The Athletic
@Sam Vecenie
Good points but all signs point to NBA combine - nba scouts at many practices - he’s getting
compared to Wally Szcerbiak and getting 2nd round talk. Will be a steal for any team. I mean
Robert Franks not even close to his ability - so he should at least be in your top 100- thanks for
replying
@Steve S. fewer than half of the teams in the NBA have been to his practices. He's good and
he's certainly on the radar. But like...this is no sure thing at all right now.
Beau M. 1h ago
I love seeing a player like Dylan Windler at 36. A do-it-all kind of guy who is often under appreciated
or unknown because he’s at an OVC school. Great great player.
Andrew B. 1h ago
Have you looked at Kyle Alexander of Tennessee? Good size, improved every year. Some semblance
of an outside shot. Can protect the rim and guard on the perimeter.
@Andrew B. Yeah, Alexander is interesting, but he falls into the category of "making the NBA as
a true 5-man is probably the hardest thing to do right now." Roster spots for 5s are dwindling.
The standard is incredibly high right now for bigs. He's certainly interesting in that he's big, long
(7-4 wingspan), athletic. But unless he really becomes a knockdown shooter, I'm not sure what
his offensive role is at the next level, and I'm not sure defense at this stage is so overwhelmingly
positive that it makes up for that question mark. To me, he's kind of a perfect G-League develop-
mental guy (or, even better for him, try to go over to Australia for a year to develop).
https://theathletic.com/694201/2018/12/05/the-athletics-2019-nba-draft-big-board-zion-williamson-moves-up-to-no-1/ 13/23
12/5/2018
g y y g y p
Sam Vecenie’s NBA Draft Big Board update: Zion Williamson clearly No. 1 – The Athletic
Matty W. 1h ago
I know that you have Ignas Brazdekis ranked 50th, and therefore you probably don't spend a ton of
time talking about him and scouting him, but he has been nuts in the first month of the season. He is
a freshman excelling in Beilein's offense and he has crazy poise and scoring ability. I'm wondering if
you see if shooting up the list if he continues to play this way the whole season, because on a pure
statistical basis, he's been out-preforming a lot of the guys you have going in the first round.
@Matty W. So yeah, here's the deal with Iggy. I've gotten more questions on him than anyone, so
I'll just answer extensively in one spot.
First and foremost, I'm a big fan. He's 6-7, knows how to move without the ball to get space and
separation, and obviously he can shoot it. He's also a tough defender who gives a ton of effort.
He's fiery, and I really like guys who are as physical as he is. He's the kind of guy I want to bet on.
To be frank, I thought No. 50 was a pretty aggressive ranking for him.
Here's where I'm worried: Athleticism here is still a pretty real NBA concern on defense. Iggy is
smart on that end and has taken to what Yaklich/Beilein want him to do well. But it also says
something, IMO, that Michigan has been better on defense with him off the floor as opposed to
when he's been on it -- especially in their games against high-major competition (vs. Nova, PC,
UNC, Purdue, NW, Michigan had a 74 DRTG with him off the floor, and an 88 DRTG with him on
it). That's a bit noisy, and the overall number is still good at 88. But I think Michigan has done
more to insulate him rather than him being a true difference maker on that end, too.
On offense, over 75% of his offense has come from spot-ups, transition opportunities, back-cuts,
and O-Rebs. The spot-up stuff is useful obviously, as he's a terrific shooter who can put the ball
on the deck and attack a closeout. He's also a tough finisher inside who does a good job embrac-
ing contact and using his natural touch -- against NBA bigs, explosiveness will be a question
here. He times cuts well, too. But a lot of that stuff doesn't really involve him creating for himself
at all, either. He won't be asked to hit the offensive glass in the NBA for the most part (O-Reb
rate has declined significantly the last five years in the NBA). Transition buckets tend to be emp-
ty calories in regard to NBA translation unless you're the one creating them via steals, quickness,
or an incredible ability to finish above the basket in early sets. It's more of a translation issue
than anything given the scheme.
On the plus side, Iggy has performed perfectly in the scheme that is asked of him. But he also
might be in a better situation for success than any player in the country because A. John Beilein
is probably the best offensive coach in the country and B. his scheme -- involving a ton of back-
cutting, spot-up opportunities, read-and-react stuff -- is the perfect fit for Brazdeikis' game. He's
actualized fully, whereas most other players in the country don't have that luxury. Plus, coming
into the season, he wasn't the primary responsibility to stop for opposing defenses.
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12/5/2018 Sam Vecenie’s NBA Draft Big Board update: Zion Williamson clearly No. 1 – The Athletic
Finally, it's worth noting he turns 20 in January, so he's pretty old for a freshman. Think you're
seeing that maturity with his early success, but it leaves ~6 months less room for upside than,
say, even Ja Morant, a sophomore at Murray State, let alone guys like Zion or RJ Barrett who
he's ~18 months older than.
And yet STILL: all of these words might make me sound like I'm negative on him as a player,
when I'm really not at all. I think he's a pretty damn-near 40% 3-pt shooter as a true skill set, and
I buy his feel for the game being super high. I love how competitive he is. He's been amazing so
far. If he stays at this rate all season, and adjusts well to being the guy defenses start to key on
primarily (something that, IMO, is probably coming soon), he'll end up rising into the first round.
But right now, I still have questions on his translation to the next level given what he's being
asked to do right now as well as sample size questions to see exactly where he fits into the mix
once the start of the seaosn moves into the middle portion.
Justin H. 1h ago
Where does Justin Wright-Foreman fall? How can he move into this top 100 list?
@Justin H. I would bet that he'll be in the top-100 at the end of the season when the underclass-
men decide to return to school. He's within the next 20 guys already, and realistically is in the
same tier as the guys at the end of the list. He's just such a terrific pull-up shooter and scorer.
One thing he's done better this season: distribute. But he still struggles to finish inside against
some of the bigger, more athletic teams (like Maryland this season, Dayton and Clemson last
season).
Zach B. 1h ago
Hi Sam, appreciate the article. Question for you - given Iggy Brazdeikis’ surprisingly strong defense
so far and ability to score on all three levels, why the ranking at 50?
Kevin P. 1h ago
What are your thoughts on ehat Oshae Brissett needs to do to move up? To me, he’s a high level ath-
lete with an improving jumper, but I’m a biased Cuse fan
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12/5/2018 Sam Vecenie’s NBA Draft Big Board update: Zion Williamson clearly No. 1 – The Athletic
@Kevin P. he's gotta start shooting it and finishing inside. He's not a great vertical athlete, so he
struggles a bit on the interior (it's gotten better this year, but he's still only at a 43% 2-pt rate).
And his jumper hasn't fallen this season, even if it's improving (he's only at 28% from 3). I love
how he rounds out his game with toughness and length defensively. He does all the little stuff.
Now he needs to add the big stuff.
Evan K. 1h ago
Love the board, Sam! How closely are you monitoring the Moreyball three true outcomes
(3PA/FT/Shot at rim) for prospects? It seems to me that since the Rockets style is "easier" (even
though it's not) to duplicate, a lot of teams will likely hyper-focus on how prospects fare in those
three categories. Do you have an opinion on that, and if that kind of focus will create any dangerous
blindspots during the scouting process?
@Evan K. yeah, I generally focus in a lot on 3-point shooting, halfcourt finishing at the basket,
and FT rate -- although FT rate is often mixed in regard to its translation rate to the next level.
But it's all situational, because very few teams run true "Moreyball" style offenses, and therefore
you must consider the context of why each prospect is performing one way or another (for in-
stance, is Player X struggling at the basket becuase his team has no spacing and 3-point threats
around him?).
@Sam Vecenie Thank you for the answer Sam! So fascinating to see all the layers that go into an
evaluation and projection.
Vladimir P. 1h ago
https://theathletic.com/694201/2018/12/05/the-athletics-2019-nba-draft-big-board-zion-williamson-moves-up-to-no-1/ 16/23
12/5/2018 Sam Vecenie’s NBA Draft Big Board update: Zion Williamson clearly No. 1 – The Athletic
Tyler C. 1h ago
Have you considered or come across Charlotte’s Jon Davis at all? Thanks
@Tyler C. I have! Good chance he'll be ranked at the end of the year when underclassmen return
to school. Good scorer, obviously athletic and can get some separation. The two big things hold-
ing him back: turnovers and shooting. He's been an inconsistent shooter and scorer over his ca-
reer unfortunately (52 TS% last year). However, the TOs and wildness have always been some-
thing of a staple of his game, never getting below the 15% mark in TO rate. Part of that is role,
becuase he's asked to do SO MUCH for Charlotte. But he screams G-League guard to me that a
team develops for a year to see if there's some untapped potential.
If Bruno Fernando continues to produce like a double-double machine this season how high can he
move up by draft time
@Lamar J. that's a good question. If he went late first, it wouldn't be totally out of the question.
The best thing he could prove going forward is that he can act as a rim protector against good
teams. Lot of his best games in that regard have come against low/mid-majors. He gets a little
over-aggressive at times. Fouls were obviously an issue last season.
Do you expect Culver to reach the pre-draft hype that Zhaire Smith had last year? I know he is not
as freaky of an athlete, but as a Tech fan he is clearly a more polished player. BTW pictures of Culver
and Zhaire together Culver is noticeably taller, 6-6 easily.
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12/5/2018 Sam Vecenie’s NBA Draft Big Board update: Zion Williamson clearly No. 1 – The Athletic
@Seth I. I don't think that the Internet's Zhaire Smith hype ever really matched up with NBA
teams' Zhaire Smith hype. So in that regard, I'd bet that it does not. But if you made me predict
whether or not Culver goes O/U 16th on draft night....well...that's exactly where I have him ranked
now! I think I'd say Culver goes higher on draft night if you nailed me down to one side of the
bet.
Haven't seen Lamar Stevens brought up anywhere. Does he have any shot at the next level or is he
too much of a tweener?
@David K. He was within the next 10 guys. Great frame, good athlete. Has to shoot it, IMO.
Any chance you think Terrance Davis of Ole Miss could crack your big board? I’ve seen him on some
others, seems like he is playing better this year than last, especially passing the ball.
Anyway awesome work as always.
@Andrew B. I had Terence ranked for a good portion of last year. But he needs to be a lot more
efficient than he is now, even in spite of the leap he's made in that regard this year. Obviously a
great athlete. But he's gotta shoot and finish.
Would you consider showing how players rise/fall on your list next to their name?
https://theathletic.com/694201/2018/12/05/the-athletics-2019-nba-draft-big-board-zion-williamson-moves-up-to-no-1/ 18/23
12/5/2018 Sam Vecenie’s NBA Draft Big Board update: Zion Williamson clearly No. 1 – The Athletic
I like the rankings but saw that Iowa State's Talen Horton-Tucker was absent. Wondering the reason-
ing behind that.
@Blake D. Go back up to the top, and read the intro. He's mentioned.
Blake D. 6m ago
Does Zion's apparently all world personality play any role? Or is that just for the advertising billions?
READ MORE
(/694035/2018/12/05/sizing-up-the-19-former-nba-players-as-college-coaches/)
https://theathletic.com/694201/2018/12/05/the-athletics-2019-nba-draft-big-board-zion-williamson-moves-up-to-no-1/ 19/23
12/5/2018 Sam Vecenie’s NBA Draft Big Board update: Zion Williamson clearly No. 1 – The Athletic
Sizing up the 27 former NBA players as college coaches
(/694035/2018/12/05/sizing-up-the-19-former-nba-players-as-college-coaches/)
LeBron James hears Magic Johnson and Kobe Bryant, but he isn't
going to listen
(/694701/2018/12/04/lebron-james-hears-magic-johnson-and-kobe-bryant-but-he-isnt-going-to-listen/)
The 68: Gonzaga is No. 1, but Duke, Kansas, Michigan and Virginia
are all making excellent cases for the spot
(/693356/2018/12/04/the-68-gonzaga-is-no-1-but-duke-kansas-michigan-and-virginia-are-all-making-
excellent-cases-for-the-spot/)
A warning shot and the threat of revolt: Inside the Bulls' waning
faith in Fred Hoiberg, belief in Jim Boylen
(/692735/2018/12/04/bulls-hoiberg-boylen-coach-change/)
KenPom: What we can glean from November shooting statistics
(/691584/2018/12/04/kenpom-what-we-can-glean-from-november-shooting-statistics/)
Isola: No need for Giannis Antetokounmpo to freak out over a
step-over
(/692778/2018/12/04/isola-no-need-for-giannis-antetokounmpo-to-freak-out-over-a-step-over/)
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