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# 1.

Regresi Linear
Proyeksi Penduduk
Tahun X Y X² Y² XY Tahun x Y = a + bx
2003 1 246466 1 60745489156 246466 2003 1 244483
2004 2 250606 4 62803367236 501212 2004 2 251948
2005 3 258550 9 66848102500 775650 2005 3 259413
2006 4 264694 16 70062913636 1058776 2006 4 266878
2007 5 276747 25 76588902009 1383735 2007 5 274343
∑ 15 1297063 55 337048774537 3965839 2008 6 281808
2009 7 289273
Y= Y = a + bx 2010 8 296738
2011 9 304203
(∑Y) (∑X²) - (∑X) (∑XY) (1297063 x 30) - (10 x 2668776) 2012 10 311668
a= = = 237017.60 2013 11 319133
n ∑X² - (∑X)² (5 x 30) - (10)² 2014 12 326598
2015 13 334063
n∑XY - (∑X) (∑Y) (5 x 2778776) - (10 x 1297063) 2016 14 341528
b= = = 7465.00 2017 15 348993
n ∑X² - (∑X)² (5 x 30) - (10)² 2018 16 356458
2019 17 363923
Y= 244482.60 + (7465 x X) 2020 18 371388
2021 19 378853
2022 20 386318
Nilai Korelasi ( r ) 2023 21 393783
n ∑XY - ∑X ∑Y
r=
√ n ∑X² - (∑X)² √ n ∑Y² - (∑Y)²

## (5 x 2668776) - (10 x 1297963) 373250

r= =
√ (5 x 30) - √(5 x 3.37049E+11) - (1297063)² 378909.4

r= 0.985064

## 2. Regresi Non Linear (Exponensial)

Proyeksi Penduduk
Tahun X X² Y Log Y X Log Y Log Y² Tahun x Y = abx
2003 1 1 246466 5.3917570168 5.391757 29.071044 2003 1 244762
2004 2 4 250606 5.3989914646 10.79798 29.149109 2004 2 251874
2005 3 9 258550 5.4125445421 16.23763 29.295638 2005 3 259193
2006 4 16 264694 5.422744097 21.69098 29.406154 2006 4 266725
2007 5 25 276747 5.4420829217 27.21041 29.616267 2007 5 274476
∑ 15 55 1297063 27.0681200422 81.32876 146.53821 2008 6 282452
2009 7 290660
Y= abx 2010 8 299106
log Y = log a (log b)x 2011 9 307798
2012 10 316742
n(∑XlogY) - (∑X) (∑logY) 2013 11 325946
log b = 2014 12 335418
n ∑X² - (∑X)² 2015 13 345165
2016 14 355195
(5 x 81.32876) - (15 x 27.06812004) 2017 15 365517
log b = = 0.0124404 2018 16 376138
(5 x 55) - 15² 2019 17 387068
2020 18 398316
(∑logY) ∑X 2021 19 409891
log a = - (log b) 2022 20 421802
n n

27.06812004 10
log a = - (0.01244) = 5.3763027
5 5

## log a = 5.376303 log b = 0.01244

a= antilog (5.388743) b= antilog (0.01244)
a= 237849.9 b= 1.029059

Y= abx
Y= 2378499 x 1.029059x

Nilai Korelasi ( r )

Y= log Y
n ∑XlogY - ∑X ∑logY
r=
√ n ∑X² - (∑X)² √ n ∑logY² - (∑logY)²

r= 0.622022
-0.629787

r= -0.98767
Perbandingan Metoda Proyeksi Regresi Linera dan Non Linear
450000

400000

350000

300000
Jumlah Penduduk (jiwa)

250000 Regresi
Linear
Regresi Non
200000 Linear
Data
150000

100000

50000

0
200 200 200 200 200 200 200 201 201 201 201 201 201 201 201 201 201 202 202 202
3 4 5 6 7 8 9 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 0 1 2
Tahun Proyeksi

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