STA 250, Fall 2017, Test #1 Sample Questions

Chapter 2
1. The population of a particular country consists of three ethnic groups. Each individual belongs to one of the four
major blood groups. The accompanying joint probability table gives the proportions of individuals in the various ethnic
group/blood group combinations.
Blood Group Suppose that an individual is randomly selected from the
Ethnic Group O A B AB population, and define the following events:
1 0.082 0.106 0.008 0.004
A = {Blood Type A selected}
2 0.135 0.141 0.018 0.006
B = {Blood Type B selected}
3 0.215 0.200 0.065 0.020
C = {Ethnic Group 3 selected}

a. Calculate P(A), P(C), and P(A ∩ C).

b. Calculate both P(A | C) and P(C | A), and explain in context what each of these probabilities represent.
c. If the selected individual does not have type B blood, what is the probability that he or she is from ethnic
group 1?

2. Suppose that there are 4 sections of a class with open seats – 3, 6, 4, and 2 seats respectively. We have 15 students
(2 freshmen, 5 sophomores, 3 juniors and 5 seniors) who want into a section of this class.
a. How many ways could we assign the 15 students to these sections?
b. Section #4 (with 2 open seats) is at the best time of day for the students and the students are upset because
both of these seats were filled by freshmen. What is the probability of this happening?

3. On American Idol, the field eventually gets narrowed down to the top 10 contestants. Suppose that there are 3 girls
and 7 boys in the top ten this season.
a. Out of the 10 remaining contestants, in how many ways could they finish as individuals?
b. What is the probability that two boys finish 1st and 2nd? (Hint: may be easiest to ignore part a)
c. Assuming order doesn’t matter, how many ways can we narrow it down to the top 4 contestants?
d. What is the probability of the top 4 being all boys?
e. If the final 4 does consist of all boys, what is the probability that the final 2 contestants are boys?

4. You are at home and decide to watch 2 movies. Since you aren’t feeling well, you randomly choose 2 movies from a
selection of 7 comedies, 11 dramas, and 6 kiddie movies.
a. In how many ways can you watch two movies if you care which movie you watch first?
b. In how many ways can you watch two movies if you don’t care which movie you watch first?
c. What is the probability that you watch two movies that are from the same genre (comedy, drama, kiddie)?

5. A class has 18 (5 female and 13 male) students and the teacher decides to randomly assign prizes to some of the
students. Four students will get a $10 gift card and 8 students will receive 3 points extra credit on the next exam. A
student can only receive one prize (meaning 6 students will not get a prize).
a. How many ways can prizes be assigned to the students?
b. The men are upset as all of the females received extra credit. What is the probability of this happening?
c. Do you think the men are JUSTLY upset? Explain your answer!
6. To avoid detection at customs, a traveler places 6 narcotic tablets into a bottle containing 9 vitamin pills that are
similar in appearance. If the customs official selects 3 of the tablets at random for analysis, what is the probability
that the traveler will be arrested for illegal possession of narcotics?

7. A circus has 21 tigers and 32 lions. We will randomly select 5 of these animals to participate in the main event. What
is the probability that at most two are lions?

8. The probability that a test detects the disease if a person has the disease is 0.95 and the probability that the test
does not detect the disease if a person does not have it is 0.90. Knowing that only 0.5% of the population has the
disease, what is the probability that a randomly selected person has the disease given that the test detected the
disease?

9. At a large department store, 67% of the customers buy an article of clothing and 24% buy a pair of shoes. If only
12% buy both an article of clothing and a pair of shoes, find each of the following:
a. Find the probability that a customer buys either an article of clothing or a pair of shoes.
b. Find the probability that a customer does not buy a pair of shoes.
c. Are buying an article of clothing and buying a pair of shoes mutually exclusive? Are they independent? Justify
your answers using probabilities.

10. Consider two events, A and B, of a sample space such that P(A) = P(B) = 0.58.
a. Is it possible that the two events A and B are mutually exclusive? Why or why not?
b. If the events A and B are independent, what would be the probability that at least one of the two events will
occur, i.e. P(A or B)?
c. Do not assume mutually exclusive or independence. Suppose that the probability of the event B occurring, given
that event A has occurred, is 0.4 (P(B|A) = 0.4). What is the probability that at least one of the two events will
occur, that is P(A or B)?

11. In a group of 320 statisticians, 245 have been involved in industry. Furthermore, 160 have been involved in
government, and of those 160 there are 50 who have not ever been involved in industry. One of these statisticians
will be randomly selected for an interview.
a. Calculate the probability that the interviewee has never been involved in either industry or government.
b. Compute the probability that a selected statistician who has been involved in government has also been involved
in industry.

12. You will fly from Chicago to Atlanta today – then tomorrow you will continue flying from Atlanta to Paris. There are 5
morning flights and 3 afternoon flights from Chicago to Atlanta. There are 3 morning flights and 2 afternoon flights
from Atlanta to Paris. If you select your flights at random, find the probability that you take at most one afternoon
flight.

13. Three men (Jim, Mike, and Paul) and two women (Elaine and Grace) meet at a bar for a Valentine’s Day dance. They
are invited to send one pair up on stage for a special song. Since all of them want to take part, they decide to randomly
select one man and one woman.
a. List the entire sample space for this selection process using appropriate notation.
b. Let A be the event that either Mike or Paul are selected. Calculate P(A )̅ .
14. In Kentucky, 48% of registered voters approve of the healthcare bill, 50% disapprove and 2% are undecided. In Ohio,
59% of registered voters approve of the healthcare bill, 38% disapprove and 3% are undecided. There are 8 million
registered voters in OH and 3 million registered voters in KY. We select one of these registered voters at random.
a. What is the probability that the selected person approves of the healthcare bill?
b. If the selected person approves of the healthcare bill, what is the probability that they are from Ohio?
c. Are the events “Approval” and “from KY” independent? Justify your answer.

15. You have a deck of cards where the cards have numbers (or ranks) but no suits.
a. Find the probability of getting a “full house” (three of one number and two of another) if you draw five cards
without replacement from a deck that contains exactly 12 threes, 12 fours, and 12 fives (a total of 36 cards).
b. Find the probability you get a “full house” if you draw five cards without replacement from a deck that contains
exactly 12 threes and 16 fours (a total of 28 cards).

Chapter 3

16. For each of the following determine the value of c so that the given function is a valid pmf. Then, find the mean and
standard deviation of the distribution.

p y  
y
a. ; y = 1, 2, 3, 4.
c
p y   c y  1 ; y = 0, 1, 2, 3.
2
b.

17. A particular intersection that you come to from the north has a stoplight that is red 80% of the time. Over 3 days, I
come to this intersection (from the north) 5 times and I am interested in the number of red lights I come to, Y.
a. Find the pmf for Y.
b. What is the expected number of red lights I would come to, E(Y)?
c. What is E(Y2+2)?
d. What is the probability that the light is red at least 4 times?
e. What is the probability that the 4th time I come to this light (out of the 5 times) from the north is the 2nd time
that it is red?

18. You are playing a game where you draw a single card from a standard 52 card-deck. After each hand of the game, all
cards are replaced and shuffled so that each card has the same probability of being drawn each time. Here is the
corresponding pmf where Y represents your winnings:

y -1 2 4
p(y) 3/13 5/26 ?

a. What is the P(Y=4)? Explain

b. Find your expected winnings and interpret this value.

19. You and a friend play a game where you each toss a fair coin. If the upper faces on the coins are both tails, you win
$3; if the faces are both heads, you win $2; if the coins do not match you lose $2 (-$2 win).
b. What are your expected winnings?
c. Similarly another payout is $100 if both coins are heads, $5 if both coins are tails and -$52 if they do not match.
Find the expected winnings of this payout scheme.
d. Now, find the standard deviation for both payout schemes. Which payout scheme do you prefer? Explain using
your answers from parts (a) and (b) for support.
20. A certified public accountant has found that nine in ten company audits contain substantial errors. If the CPA audits
a series of accounts (assuming each audit is independent from the next), find the following:
a. What is the probability that the first account containing substantial errors is the third one to be audited?
b. What is the probability that the first account containing substantial errors will occur on or after the third audited
account?
c. Given that an error was not found on the first 5 accounts, what is the probability that the first error occurs on the
8th account?

21. A perfect 6-sided cube has 3 sides labeled $3, two sides labeled $2, and one side labeled $1. You pay $2 to roll the
cube and you win back whatever is showing. Let W be your net winnings for one play.
a. Write down a probability distribution table for W.
b. Calculate the expected value and standard deviation of W.

22. A plan for an executive travelers’ club has been developed by an airline on the premise that 10% of its current
customers would qualify for membership.
a. Among 25 randomly selected current customers, what is the probability that between 2 and 6 (inclusive) qualify
for membership?
b. The company has assumed that only 10% would qualify for members. But, they are willing to reject this idea and
conclude more than 10% qualify if 7 or more customers in the sample of 25 qualify for membership. What is the
probability the company’s assumption is rejected when it is actually valid?
c. What is the probability the company’s assumption of 10% is not rejected (using the decision rule in part b) even
though 20% actually qualify?

23. After shuffling a deck of 52 cards, a dealer deals out 5. Let Y = the number of suits represented in the five card hand.
a. A partial distribution for Y has been constructed below. Fill in the remaining two values in the distribution by
calculating the appropriate probabilities.

y 1 2 3 4
p(y) 0.146 0.588

b. What is the mean and standard deviation for the number of suits represented?

24. Of all customers purchasing automatic garage-door openers, 75% purchase a chain-driven model. The store currently
has in stock 10 chain-driven models and 8 shaft-driven models. If 15 customers purchase garage door openers, what
is the probability the requests of these 15 customers can be met from existing stock?